Everyone -- Deep breath! by LadyShelley

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Everyone -- Deep breath!

POSTED BY: LADYSHELLEY
UPDATED: Thursday, October 6, 2005 09:14
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 2364
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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 5:42 PM

I'm calling an intervention; we're all getting obsessed with the box office to the point folks are getting depressed and losing sleep.

So everyone ... deep breath in ... and out.

One more in ... and out.

The BDM has been in theaters for six days. Six, and already folks are giving up because it didn't take a huge box opening weekend. The film opened right where Universal thought it would; they are happy with the opening numbers, at least that's what they are telling the press.

The internet buzz is huge, there are three internet comics that have featured a Serenity theme and a few paper published ones as well. boards and lists are humming with people talking about the film, and they aren't Firefly groups.

Folks have real lives, they have to work, go to school, deal with family stuff that doesn't mean they won't see the film, just that they won't see it opening weekend. Have a little faith, folks! This defeatist attitude of oh well we didn't do it after only six days is not was JW had in mind when he said hold.

We haven't opened in most of the major international markets yet, the film will succeed we just have to have a little faith. This is going to be a slow grow kind of thing, we keep the same numbers and don't drop, that's what the money guys want to see; not a fast burn and we're outta gas.

Lady Shelley
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.redhawke.org

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:09 PM

CANTTAKESKY

Quote:
Originally posted by LadyShelley:
Folks have real lives...

Maybe we oughta get some too, eh--obsessing over a movie the way we do?

We need to remember all the little movies that could. Big Fat Greek Wedding never made it to #1, but remained in the top 10 forever and ever. Pulp Fiction opened modestly, but went on to earn over 100 million.

Any other movies you can think of?

Can't Take My Gorram Sky

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:13 PM

BROWNCOATMONK

One of the causes of our collective anxiety is the numbers for some of the other movies out there like say Flightplan--good fricking gosh that movie looks completely ridiculous from one viewing of a promo. Newsflash, the movie relies on a whole series of amazing contrivances to work, yet it's still raking them in. Out of the Blue screams suckage. Our glorious film with darn good reviews (better than I could've hoped for) and high repeat watchability, is n't doing what it should considering it's high quality and the very low quality competition it's matched up with. Now I see that the second weekend's numbers will determine whether there is a sequel, no matter what long term numbers we get (which I believe will be a lot higher than many higher budgeted movies/lower return movies that got sequels). This is the postcards all over again. I don't know why the collective just can't get it, as I see over and over the individual grasp the greatness. It's just very depressing.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:14 PM

BROWNCOATMONK

Let me reiterate:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:16 PM

GIANTEVILHEAD

Galaxy Quest, opened with $7 million ended up with $70 million, domestic.

We need to mobilize other sci-fi fans, especially Trek fans since there's no Trek on the air or in the theaters and won't be any for quite a while, they're ripe for conversion.

"I swallowed a bug." -River Tam

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:38 PM

LADYSHELLEY

Quote:
Originally posted by BrowncoatMonk:
Let me reiterate:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Yes, true, now let me ask:

What exactly are "they" looking for this weekend? Increased box, steady box, increase in per screen? We're in panic mood trying to find a solution when we aren't sure what the problem is.

Lady Shelley
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.redhawke.org

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:42 PM

LADYSHELLEY

Quote:
Originally posted by canttakesky:
Quote:
Originally posted by LadyShelley:
Folks have real lives...
Maybe we oughta get some too, eh--obsessing over a movie the way we do?

Naw, didn't mean that at all, just that pesky real life interferes with the fun stuff.

Quote:
We need to remember all the little movies that could. Big Fat Greek Wedding never made it to #1, but remained in the top 10 forever and ever. Pulp Fiction opened modestly, but went on to earn over 100 million.

Any other movies you can think of?

Full Monty, maybe?

Lady Shelley
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.redhawke.org

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 6:56 PM

JASONZZZ

Quote:
Originally posted by BrowncoatMonk:
Let me reiterate:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

If they are truly trying to figure out whether the sequel is worthwhile, 2nd week is too early to figure that out. 2nd week is usually used to figure out whether they will actually keep the damn thing in the theatres for a 3rd and a 4th week - but it's usually in a pretty tight market... Even Universal themselves don't have *that many* movies coming out this coming few weeks, let alone big budget blockbusters... November is a different story though. Unfortuantely, lots of movies are yanked on the end of 2nd week without much fanfare before they can do anymore harm - unfortuantely, to the DVD sales. But then again, you are looking at a pretty good lengthy int'l release schedule for FFS, so it doesn't make sense to look at the short range and canned it early... I guess they have the choice of canning it in the States if the 2nd week take drops drastically and just opt to keep it out in the int'l release and see what it does...

I don't know, all hand-wringing aside and realistically, 2nd week take at least cannot drop. If it does, it really looks poor for keeping it in the theatres in the coming few weeks before November... November has some powerhouse blockbusters coming out that will test the patience of the theatre owners if they perceive that they can trade it out for something that will drive up more popcorn and bon-bon sales for them...

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 3:57 AM

CANTTAKESKY

Quote:
Originally posted by Giantevilhead:
Galaxy Quest, opened with $7 million ended up with $70 million, domestic.

Oh good one. That's our audience too. It was in release for 20 weeks (though I'm sure a lot of that was in discount theatres).

Evolution: opened $13.4 mil, $38 mil domestic, $98 worldwide total
Mars Attacks: 9.3 mil, 37.7 dom, 101.3 ww
There's Something About Mary: 13.4 mil, 176 dom, 369 ww (took 8 weeks to #1)
Fish Called Wanda: 4.8 mil, 62 dom (10 wks to #1)

We need to hold, and keep it going. If Wanda and Mary can get to #1 after 8 or 10 weeks, we certainly can.

Can't Take My Gorram Sky

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 7:46 AM

BROWNCOATMONK

Quote:
Originally posted by Jasonzzz:
Quote:
Originally posted by BrowncoatMonk:
Let me reiterate:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

If they are truly trying to figure out whether the sequel is worthwhile, 2nd week is too early to figure that out. 2nd week is usually used to figure out whether they will actually keep the damn thing in the theatres for a 3rd and a 4th week - but it's usually in a pretty tight market... Even Universal themselves don't have *that many* movies coming out this coming few weeks, let alone big budget blockbusters... November is a different story though. Unfortuantely, lots of movies are yanked on the end of 2nd week without much fanfare before they can do anymore harm - unfortuantely, to the DVD sales. But then again, you are looking at a pretty good lengthy int'l release schedule for FFS, so it doesn't make sense to look at the short range and canned it early... I guess they have the choice of canning it in the States if the 2nd week take drops drastically and just opt to keep it out in the int'l release and see what it does...

I don't know, all hand-wringing aside and realistically, 2nd week take at least cannot drop. If it does, it really looks poor for keeping it in the theatres in the coming few weeks before November... November has some powerhouse blockbusters coming out that will test the patience of the theatre owners if they perceive that they can trade it out for something that will drive up more popcorn and bon-bon sales for them...

You are thinking like a normal businessman. Unfortunately there is plenty of non-Firefly related evidence that indicates that Studio Executives do not make business decisions in any way related to real-world fiscal decisions. I mean, not even close to how things would be done at well run companies or even Adelphia/Enron/Tyco quality ownership. It's a culture that has evolved in the past 100+ years far and away from any traditional business models. There are a lot more political aspects to every action that a studio takes than you can even imagine. The word Byzantine comes to mind.

The problem is that the Serenity project comes in on a non-standard vector and so it's especially hard to win converts from people whose movie watching tastes could probably be classified as apathetic (they don't watch movies they *make* movies). The only way to direct the personal gravitas of one the powers that be for outsiders like us is MONEY.

That's partially what elicted some internal support for Serenity was the DVD sales (which are impressive even to the most jaded exec), Whedon's personal appeal (as a rising star/established money maker--talent wasn't even relevant for studio considerations), the ability to make the movie cheaply all things considered and a lack of other comparable movies in the chute all helped. I don't know what they have on the board for the future, but fact of the matter is to get on that board Serenity is going to have to wag some serious dosh in their faces *AGAIN*.

Hence the criticalness of this second weekend, which is probably the last weekend for the studio to garner the highest percentage of the weekend grosses (as per prenegotiated contracts). A normal business would make a projection from the dropoff between the first and second weekends numbers to estimate the number of weeks in theaters and likely returns over the run.

Of course a normal business would be able to project (using actuarial analysis) the future returns from the DVD sales because of the high level of data related to the TV DVD sales (such as number of people that watched the show on the air versus the number of purchases of DVD's, sales related to the non-existant advertising, continuing sales despite having saturated the True-Believer market, relationship between mean/median/mode of positive reviews versus DVD sales--all of these numbers are so disproporionate as to be able be able to project more than enough profits to justify multiple sequels).

It's particularly annoying when I realize that the movie will probably have a pretty long run (all things considered), enough to garner a majority (if not all) the necessary returns to pay off the movie and make ancillary revenues pure profit (i.e. DVD sales + licensing). But what do I know I've been critical of Studios for 20+ years.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 9:10 AM

JASONZZZ

Quote:
Originally posted by BrowncoatMonk:
Quote:
Originally posted by BrowncoatMonk:
Let me reiterate:

A source informs me that tickets sales this weekend (10/7-10/9) will determine the fate of the sequel.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

Hence the criticalness of this second weekend, which is probably the last weekend for the studio to garner the highest percentage of the weekend grosses (as per prenegotiated contracts). A normal business would make a projection from the dropoff between the first and second weekends numbers to estimate the number of weeks in theaters and likely returns over the run.

Of course a normal business would be able to project (using actuarial analysis) the future returns from the DVD sales because of the high level of data related to the TV DVD sales (such as number of people that watched the show on the air versus the number of purchases of DVD's, sales related to the non-existant advertising, continuing sales despite having saturated the True-Believer market, relationship between mean/median/mode of positive reviews versus DVD sales--all of these numbers are so disproporionate as to be able be able to project more than enough profits to justify multiple sequels).

It's particularly annoying when I realize that the movie will probably have a pretty long run (all things considered), enough to garner a majority (if not all) the necessary returns to pay off the movie and make ancillary revenues pure profit (i.e. DVD sales + licensing). But what do I know I've been critical of Studios for 20+ years.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

I see whwere you are going with this... You are right, I'd forgotten the negotiated contracts for the studio's take of the theatre gross - which usually drops off (for the studio) somewhere around the 3rd to 4th week... Yeah, that's a big factor to consider in the usual 2nd week drop off.

You are right, this 2nd weekend has got to go right on the up side or it will suck...

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 9:14 AM

XEROGRAVITY

hysteria /on

The atmo is falling! The atmo is falling!

hysteria /disengaged
Time to dance.

XG

No such thing as gravity. The "Earth-that-was" just sucks.

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