Guess-timation. by bikisdad

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Guess-timation.

POSTED BY: BIKISDAD
UPDATED: Monday, May 9, 2005 17:52
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Monday, May 9, 2005 8:12 AM

This thread is mainly for the closet accounting geeks among us (if there are any besides me).

I was just doing a little speculating as to the potential box office for "Serenity". There's been some talk on other threads about how our BDM will be a better film than the latest Star Wars installment, but won't come anywhere near the BO, as Joss puts it. Well, here are some, what I think are, really conservative estimates for what the BDM might bring in:

The original series had (per F*X) between 2 and 4 million viewers. I think we can conservatively say that that number has at least doubled since the dvds came out; so say 4 to 8 million current fans will see the movie. Many of us plan to see it many more times than once, but I'll conservatively say that we'll all see it twice. At an average ticket price of about $8, that yields a BO of between $64 million and $128 million.

Now, keep in mind, that doesn't count all the money from eventual dvd sales, from ticket sales in foreign countries (where hardly anyone had even heard of Firefly until after it was cancelled), or from ticket sales to all the poor, ignorant people who still haven't been enlightened about the Firefly 'verse, but who will be between now and September 30th (if we all continue our word-of-mouth marketing).

If I was a Universal exec, I'd have Joss start working on those scripts for the sequels NOW. (That's a hint to any Universal movie people who might happen across this post).

Anyway, those are my, what I consider, conservative estimates.

Questions? Comments? Does anybody give a flying fig at this point?

Apathy on the Rise. No One Cares.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 9:16 AM

STEVETHEPIRATE

I used to be good at math.

Anyway, I'm pretty much with ya on those estimates. I've been thinking it would get near triple-figure mil, but it might be a stretch for it to get over the hump.

As for working on the sequel scripts now, I figure Joss operates in a way that would allow him to get a great script ready very quickly. Not in a rushed, gotta-have-it-now-so-we-can- capitalize-on-an-unwitting-public way, but in a these-characters-live-within-me-and-I-already- know-what-should-happen-next way.

----------------------------------------------
STEVEthePIRATE topped off his lunch with a bunch of chocolate ... again.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 9:23 AM

WHOISRIVER

Uhm... You are way, way over estimating things here. The DVDs sold about a million copies I seem to recall... You can't assume all viewers of the TV programme + DVD owners are going to go multiple times. Most won't bother. You can't even assume they'll go at all - some will, but not all.

It's also worth noting a lot of DVD sales numbers include abroad.

Internationally, Serenity should pick up about $20m hopefully from browncoats and casual fans over the first few weeks. Universal know DVD sales can make up the rest if needs be - hence why Universal have been making significant effort with the DVDs in terms of extra features (there's going to be lots).

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Monday, May 9, 2005 11:11 AM

BIKISDAD

Quote:
Originally posted by STEVEthePIRATE:
I used to be good at math.

Anyway, I'm pretty much with ya on those estimates. I've been thinking it would get near triple-figure mil, but it might be a stretch for it to get over the hump.

Funny, I was having trouble posting the original message and I didn't even think it went through - but here it is. OK, after thinking about this some more - actually thinking back to last year when "The Grudge" grossed $108 million at the box office, in spite of being a pretty poor movie by most accounts - I'm pretty sure that the BDM will do at least that well by 12/31/05. That should definitely get us our sequels - which is really what I care about. But Universal cares about the money, so I was just trying to take a look at it from their viewpoint.

Apathy on the Rise. No One Cares.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 1:02 PM

MSCKAREN

I hope you're right. I don't want to get my hopes up too high but I get the feeling we've already broken some records so why not the rest.

Think about getting the DVDs even.

That went well enough, we got a movie.

Buzz and prescreening sell-outs - we shocked our own selves now didn't we.

Keep flying and doing the impossible, I say!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Appears they've canceled the show and we're still here. What does that make us?"
"Big damn junkies, Sir!"
"Ain't we just."

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Monday, May 9, 2005 1:13 PM

VIGGENBOY

Several years back I worked for a behind the scenes company that did a lot of work for Universal. I've kept in touch with them over the years, and about two summers ago was talking with them about how their business has changed so much due to BTS requirements for DVD extras. The most interesting thing they told me was what an exec had told them in regards to what an impact DVD sales have had on the film industry. The quote was something like, "To put it in perspective for you, we now view the theatrical release as pretty much a commerical for the DVD."

I don't know anything about the reality of that statement, but it does make ya think. Unless I'm mistaken, Serenity wasn't officially greenlit until the DVD set took off, right? Even if the feature doesn't hit blockbuster status, if the BDM is as good as I'm sure it will be Universal is going to make their money back in spades.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 1:18 PM

MYSWORD

Numbers numbers numbers. How bout since it's sci-fi action adventure ( put it there on the safe side) alot of people will go, given th etrailer itself. A few of my friends saw the trailer and are blown away, so not counting the fan fans of the show, you're lookin at a blockbuster anyway. Hell you might have Buffy/Angel fans who've never seen or heard of Firefly show up. Sides, you shouldnt worry about the movie, it'll be fine. Just, no more numbers, they kinda hurt my brain.

Later Days

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Monday, May 9, 2005 4:04 PM

BIKISDAD

Ha, Ha! I WARNED you that this thread was for accounting geeks...

But seriously, I'm glad that your anecdotal, reasoned, logical outlook meshes with my loose analytical prognostication. I think we're on the same page as far as the BDM's chances. It's going to do great.

Apathy on the Rise. No One Cares.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 4:15 PM

BIKISDAD

Quote:
Originally posted by viggenboy:
"To put it in perspective for you, we now view the theatrical release as pretty much a commerical for the DVD."

That's an interesting point. Maybe the box office numbers aren't all that important anymore. I know I usually wait to rent (or buy) the dvd rather than going to the theatre. But not in this case. For "Serenity" I'm definitely going to the theatre as many times as I can get there.

Apathy on the Rise. No One Cares.

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Monday, May 9, 2005 5:34 PM

TOMANTA

For those doing math, I've pulled up some BO data from boxofficemojo.com on past releases on the last weekend of September and a couple of other Sept. releases that'd hit the Sci-Fi audience:

The Forgotten: Sept 24, 2004
Budget (Production/Marketing): $42m/NA
Domestic Gross: $67m

Sky Captain & tWoT: Sept 17, 2004
Budget (Production/Marketing): $70m/$35m
Domestic Gross: $37m

The Rundown: Sept 26, 2003
Budget (Production/Marketing): $85m/$25m
Domestic Gross: $47m

Underworld: Sept 19, 2003
Budget (Production/Marketing): $22m/$20m
Domestic Gross: $51m

Sweet Home Alabama: Sept 27, 2002
Budget (Production/Marketing): $30m/$25m
Domestic Gross: $127m (I think this is an big abnormality :) )

The Tuxedo: Sept 27, 2002
Budget (Production/Marketing): $60m/$25m
Domestic Gross: $50m
====

Serenity: Sept 30, 2005
Budget (Production/Marketing): $40m/?
Domestic Gross: ?

Let's say $25 million for the marketing budget.
In order to be considered a success I think it needs to meet its production budget domestically. $40 million is extremely doable. If it hits $65m it'd be a hit for a late Sept. release.

If it gets good critic reviews (and there's no reason why it shouldn't!) and good word of mouth (see above), I think these goals are very achievable. Universal will probably be ecstatic if it makes $65m domestically.

Hell, it's already made a few thousand domestically and it ain't even finished yet!

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

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Monday, May 9, 2005 5:52 PM

MYSWORD

So, we agree...Serenity will be a hit! I'm glad this thread was created.

"There is no belonging or deserving anymore. you can take what you want, have what you want, but nothing is yours."

"What? The devil built a robot?"

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