CINEMA

Maybe Disney could learn a lesson here...

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, May 21, 2023 22:54
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Saturday, April 8, 2023 12:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253940830-Weekend-predictions-Mario-s
et-to-cart-off-200-million-on-opening-weekend


Looks like the Mario movie could make $200 Million domestic by Sunday night and already put it in the 3rd highest domestic grossing movie so far in 2023 after only 5 days in the theaters.

Disney's Lightyear made $118 Million domestic in total.

Disney's Strange World made $38 Million domestic in total.



It's amazing how much money you can make on an animated feature when you're not pushing an agenda to the parents and brainwashing the children with it.

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Sunday, April 9, 2023 10:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Not only did Super Mario Bros. make nearly $205 Million on its opening weekend, but it pulled in $377 Million worldwide.

In only 5 days, it is now already the highest grossing video game movie ever made.

It is now the highest grossing worldwide opening weekend for any animated feature ever, dethroning Disney's Frozen 2 from that spot.

It is now the second highest grossing Domestic opening weekend for animated features, falling behind only The Incredibles 2.


It has a 52% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes.





A huge fuck you to Disney and their propaganda machine, and to all of the movie critics that will be out of jobs soon when ChatGPT is able to do better. That won't be long because the bar is very, very low.

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Wednesday, April 12, 2023 9:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Mario just made $20,110,945 on its first Monday. That's $4 Million more than Avatar 2 made on its first Monday, which is bonkers. I'd love to see a list of all of the movies that came out so far in 2023 and find out how many didn't even make $20 Million on opening night, let alone the following Monday. I bet there's a LOT more that didn't than did.

We're close to 1/4 of a Billion dollars Domestically and it's only been in the theater 6 days. Worldwide, we're $2.5 Million short of $400 Million in that same time frame.



Shazam 2 has made $128,170,471 worldwide in 25 days.

Ant-Man Quantumania has made $466,833,131 in 53 days.

Even at Day 6, Avatar 2 only made $183,049,646 Domestic, which is $41 Million less than Mario made in the same time.


I'm under no illusion that the Mario movie is going to beat A2's worldwide gross. It is a family friendly kids movie and it will lose steam.

But the real joke here is all of the film critics who suck at their jobs and need to be replaced by people with actual talent before AI replaces them. I'm sure somebody has a YouTube compilation video of all of these (mostly single white millennial women) critics shitting all over the movie right before it came into theaters and shattered (and continues to shatter) multiple all-time records.

I have no interest personally in seeing this movie and likely won't ever see it, but I'm grateful to Nintendo and Universal for the show they're putting on right now.



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Friday, April 14, 2023 3:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Worldwide Box office for the Mario Movie after only 9 days: $509,221,843

It actually had Disney/Marvel's Quantumania beat yesterday, but I forgot to look.

After 56 days, Quantumania only made $466,918,606.

So yeah... It took Nintendo/Universal 1/7th the time to make the same amount worldwide as it did for Disney/Marvel to make with its last super hero movie. Mario also took half as much money to make as Quantumania did ($100 Million vs $200 Million).

It's also made more than 2 times the amount of money that Disney/Pixar's last two flicks generated in total in only 9 days. And it only cost $100 Million vs $200 Million for Lightyear and $135 Million for Strange World.

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Friday, April 14, 2023 7:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The-Numbers predicts $60 Million more this weekend and a 59% drop. Not just because it did SO well last weekend, but because there are 6 new wide releases, which is a record since fake Covid shut down everyone's businesses and livelihoods.

They say it could do better than this though, possibly reaching up to $70 Million.

We'll see.


P.S. Fuck you, Disney.

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Saturday, April 15, 2023 12:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Comparisons of Super Mario Bros. to Disney movies 2022 and 2023.

(Sadly for Disney, Avatar 2 doesn't count because technically it's a FOX property. )

2022

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/2022/distributor/Walt-Disney

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: $952,224,986 Worldwide / Production Budget $200 Million / 98 Days
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: $854,041,058 Worldwide / Production Budget: $250 Million / 126 Days
Thor: Love and Thunder: $760,928,081 Worldwide / Production Budget: $250 Million / 98 Days
Lightyear: $218,768,299 Worldwide / Production Budget: $200 Million / 84 Days
Strange World: $69,566,884 Worldwide / Production Budget: $135 Million / 72 Days

2023

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: $466,929,606 Worldwide / Production Budget: $200 Million / 57 Days




Super Mario Bros: $531,821,843 Worldwide / Production Budget: $100 Million / 10 Days



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Saturday, April 15, 2023 7:45 PM

JONGSSTRAW



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Sunday, April 16, 2023 11:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers predicts $60 Million more this weekend and a 59% drop. Not just because it did SO well last weekend, but because there are 6 new wide releases, which is a record since fake Covid shut down everyone's businesses and livelihoods.

They say it could do better than this though, possibly reaching up to $70 Million.

We'll see.


P.S. Fuck you, Disney.



It looks as though Mario is going to blow right past Bruce's top prediction of $70 Million for the weekend with a studio projection of a whopping $87 MILLION!

Worldwide Box Office for The Super Mario Bros. Movie is now $677,959,700 in only 12 Days.

We're right on the heels of Thor: Love and Thunder now, and Black Panther 2 is next.

And really, when you consider both of those movies cost 2.5 times as much to make, SMB already won.

Get fucked, Disney.

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Monday, April 17, 2023 5:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$92,347,190

Universal was being modest.

$683,306,890 worldwide in 12 days.

It should blow by Thor: Love and Thunder by the end of next weekend and be hot on the heels of Black Panther 2 by then.

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Monday, April 17, 2023 8:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Interesting facts about the movie so far.

It increased the amount of theaters showing it the second week by 28, for a total of 4,371.

After Day 12 Stats:

Top 2023 Movies at the Domestic Box Office: 1st Place
All Time Domestic Box Office for Based on Game Movies: 1st Place
All Time Domestic Animated Box Office: 14th Place
All Time Domestic Box Office for Digital Animation Movies: 13th Place
All Time Domestic Box Office for Universal Movies: 9th Place



And new numbers came in internationally, so Worldwide Box Office now sits at $692,968,890 in only 12 Days.

It was never going to beat A2 Internationally, but to put that into context, A2 crossed $700 Million worldwide in 8 days. But at that point in time, A2 only had $216 Million Domestic, while SMB already had $220 Million Domestic on Day 6.

It's a kids movie though. It will taper off at some point. There's no way it's going to beat A2 Domestically in the end, but it should easily pull in a Billion dollars off of a $100 Million budget and put all the other Disney/Marvel WB/DC movies since End Game to shame.



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Tuesday, April 18, 2023 7:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


SMB made another $5.8 Million Monday night, which was quite a bit more than any other movie in the top 10 made on Friday, Saturday or Sunday night, including all 6 new wide releases.

The closest any movie came all weekend to Mario's Monday night was John Wick 4's $3,474,751 on Saturday night.



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Wednesday, April 19, 2023 6:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Free download

Release Name: The.Super.Mario.Bros.Movie.2023.V4.1080p.Cam.H264.Will186
Size: 2.08GB
Video: MP4 | 1920×800 | 3,250 kb/s
Audio: English | AAC | 157 kb/s
Runtime: 1 h 27 min

https://comment.rlsbb.ru/the-super-mario-bros-movie-2023-v4-1080p-cam-
h264-will186
/



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, April 19, 2023 12:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Okay. Just pout then.

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Wednesday, April 19, 2023 9:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Just a hair short of $725 Million worldwide in only 14 days.

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Thursday, April 20, 2023 9:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Cheap Seat Tuesday Results:

SMB (Day 14): $7,402,565

ALL 22 other movies currently in the theaters now: $5,624,803

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/04/18


The Super Mario Bros. Movie just pulled in $1,777,762 more than every single other movie in the US Box office yesterday combined.


I won't say that's never happened before since I don't see anybody else saying it right now, but it's certainly the only time I've ever seen it since paying attention to The-Numbers.com.

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Thursday, April 20, 2023 10:12 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Today's audiences are Super Nostalgic for the 1993 version of Super-Mario-Bros:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Super-Mario-Bros
/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison






The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, April 21, 2023 10:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I loved the original SMB movie before it was cool.

I've posted about it quite a bit in these cinema threads over the years and have been completely unapologetic for loving it. I put it right up there with both Costner's The Postman and Waterworld as great movies that were extremely underrated before the Internet and unfairly targeted as "Bad" movies after the rise of sites like YouTube.


The same thing happened to the Atari 2600 game E.T. when the Angry Video Game Nerd took a dump on it and 1,000 other channels on YouTube made videos about how it was the worst Atari game ever made and was single-handedly responsible for the video game market crash in the mid-80s. Neither of those statements are even true.

Hell... Even NPR has an article about it called "Total Failure: The World's Worst Video Game"

https://www.npr.org/2017/05/31/530235165/total-failure-the-worlds-wors
t-video-game


I got a lot of enjoyment out of E.T. when I was a kid, and I figured out the way that you could know early on if you were going to win the game if you played well or if you should just reset the system and try again. I liked it at the time because it was way different than any other game I had played before at home and it made you think creatively to solve it and to reliably beat it. Instead of spaceship/man shoots aliens/soldiers or thing moves around maze while picking things up and avoiding bad guys, it was more like cracking the code to Solitaire, the single-person card game that can be reliably beat once you slow down, temper your impulses and play right.

To find out that the dude who made it only had like a month to finish it before the holiday season and he hardly got any sleep was impressive. To find out that his entire career was ruined and he ended up shouldering most of the blame for killing the home video game market at the time was depressing.


I know a LOT about video games. Probably more than most people out there since I'm somewhat of a historian on them.

Was E.T. a great game? Probably not... at least I would say that it for sure was the wrong game to put the E.T. Franchise wrapper around after paying tens of Millions of dollars for licensing rights before a Christmas push without doing any audience testing first. But if it were to stand alone on its own merits without any expensive copyrighted material in it and sky-high expectations, I think it would have been much more well received.

It certainly wasn't the worst game ever made though. It wasn't the worst game Atari ever made. It wasn't the worst game on the Atari 2600. It wasn't the worst game that came out on Atari in 1982.

Here's a list of games that came out in 1982:

https://gamicus.fandom.com/wiki/1982_in_video_gaming

Without even having to list "Custer's Last Stand", "Cathouse Blues", "Philly Flasher" or "Beat 'em and Eat 'em" as objectively worse games after the first 30 seconds of the idea of 1982-style digital porn novelty wears off, you can find a whole basket of terrible games that don't compete at all with E.T.

Here's my short list, just from skimming those titles, in no particular order:

1 Any sports game. Period. The technology just wasn't there yet.
2. Backgammon
3. China Syndrome
4. Spider-Man (Cool idea, but basically unplayable)


.... hmmmm

Going through the bad games of 1982 is kind of a waste of time, really. There were some truly standout games released in 1982 like "Turmoil", "Towering Inferno", "Journey: Escape" (licensed by the band and with the song "Don't Stop Believing" in the game, "Demon Attack", "Venture", "River Raid" and "Pitfall!".


They did a lot of arcade conversions that year with WILDLY varying results. The 2600 port of Pac-Man was famously abysmal, as was Donkey Kong and Donkey Kong Jr. Gorf was serviceable, as was "Dig-Dug". "Pole Position" was pretty decent, as was Q-Bert. "Popeye" was probably my pick for the best Atari 2600 arcade conversion of all time.

But that's just the point. There wasn't a whole lot of real innovation back in those days, and if the games weren't just a lousy scaled down port of arcades at the times, 90% of them that weren't sports games were just watered-down derivatives of the famous games of the time.

E.T. isn't what caused the video game crash. It wasn't even Pac-Man's horrible port that same Christmas season. It was just the fact that almost nothing new was being made and people were just bored with home video games until Nintendo came around and brought innovation with them.

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Friday, April 21, 2023 10:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


With 5 more wide releases this weekend, SMB is still going to be on top by a lot. Bruce's model predicts $68 Million this weekend (although he thinks that might be a little high).

That alone would be enough to put it over $800 Million worldwide in just 19 days, not even including with it will make internationally over the weekend, and it would also be enough to leap-frog it from the 52nd highest domestic grossing movie to the 26th.

I don't think it will end up cracking the top 10 Domestic, but I don't think 14th place is out of the question.

Pretty crazy. I knew it would do better than any recent Disney animated flick, but I never would have expected a video game based movie to do this well.


Has anybody seen it? Is it even any good, or are we just so starved for anything resembling entertainment without being preached to that just being competent without The Message is a Billion Dollar affair in 2023?

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Sunday, April 23, 2023 11:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
With 5 more wide releases this weekend, SMB is still going to be on top by a lot. Bruce's model predicts $68 Million this weekend (although he thinks that might be a little high).



Yeah. Looks like the projected take this weekend was $58.2 Million. They usually like to err on the side of caution, especially when the movie is new and/or still raking in a lot of cash, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something like $60 Million actual.

Where the projected numbers are now, it puts it in 28th place all time Domestic right behind E.T. and above Toy Story 4.

It should be 25th place, right behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever before next weekend, and I'd suspect 20th place, right behind Finding Dory and overtaking Frozen II by the end of next weekend.



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Sunday, April 23, 2023 12:10 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Where the projected numbers are now, it puts it in 28th place all time Domestic right behind E.T. and above Toy Story 4.

Stop making the rich richer. Instead, download the movie for free:

https://tpb25.ukpass.co/search.php?q=The.Super.Mario.Bros.Movie

The one piece of software you will need is here: https://www.qbittorrent.org/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 23, 2023 3:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


This is very obviously a Billion dollar movie at this point.

$876,438,061 worldwide in just 3 weeks off of only a $100 Million budget, and it's expected to make at least another $90 Million in the US, which would put it at 15th place for all time Domestic and very close to the 14th place I predicted it could reach.



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Sunday, April 23, 2023 3:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Stop making the rich richer. Instead, download the movie for free:

The one piece of software you will need is here:



Where was your movie-related Communism in the Avatar 2 thread?

I didn't see you posting pirated links to Lightyear or Strange World when they were brought up either.

Don't be salty bro.

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Monday, April 24, 2023 4:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
With 5 more wide releases this weekend, SMB is still going to be on top by a lot. Bruce's model predicts $68 Million this weekend (although he thinks that might be a little high).



Yeah. Looks like the projected take this weekend was $58.2 Million. They usually like to err on the side of caution, especially when the movie is new and/or still raking in a lot of cash, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something like $60 Million actual.



$59,930,940 Actual.

Quote:

Where the projected numbers are now, it puts it in 28th place all time Domestic right behind E.T. and above Toy Story 4.


Yep. 28th Place. Should move up to 27th after today.

Quote:

It should be 25th place, right behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever before next weekend, and I'd suspect 20th place, right behind Finding Dory and overtaking Frozen II by the end of next weekend.


We'll see, but I bet I'm right.



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Wednesday, April 26, 2023 11:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$885,826,854 worldwide and $444,058,475 domestic after 21 days.

Just bumped off E.T. and Shrek 2 yesterday for 26th place Domestic. It will be in 20th place after the weekend is over.

Does it have another $100 Million in it to get 14th place like I predicted it will?

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Thursday, April 27, 2023 9:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$906,858,807 Worldwide right now.

I just heard last night that it hasn't even opened in Japan or South Korea until this weekend, so that will bump it up even further when it does.

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Friday, April 28, 2023 12:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


With only $1.1 Million needed last night, Mario will easily slip right into 25th place for all time Domestic when Thursday's numbers come in, just like I said it would back on the 23rd.

Will it make 20th place after Sunday like I predicted on the 23rd too?

Easily. It's only got to make $28 Million, which would be a -53% drop from last weekend, and it should come out way ahead of that.

In fact, it could possibly (though not super likely) take 19th place this weekend. It's got to make about $37 Million to do it. It will be close with the -37% and -35% drops the movie saw over the last two weekends. $37 Million this weekend would be just over a -38% drop, but there are no new movies coming out this weekend that should take any revenue away from SMB.

If it doesn't reach 19th it will be so close that it's incidental, but if we're going to get up to 14th place by the end of the run like I predicted earlier, it would be helpful. It would only need to make about another $56 Million domestic at that point to do it.



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Saturday, April 29, 2023 2:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$450 Million Domestic going into the weekend and 25th place, just like I said it would be on the 23rd.

It will be above Frozen II after Sunday night, and possibly even above Finding Dory if it has a particularly good weekend.

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Saturday, April 29, 2023 1:38 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


SMB moves up to 24th place above Wakanda Forever with the $8.9 Million projected for Friday Night and nearly $459 Million Domestic so far.

Bruce's Model predicts a $46 Million take for SMB this weekend which would only be a 26% drop from last weekend. I think that's probably far too ambitious with only $9 Million on Friday night (Which is a 37% drop).

Quote:

Will it make 20th place after Sunday like I predicted on the 23rd too?

Easily. It's only got to make $28 Million, which would be a -53% drop from last weekend, and it should come out way ahead of that.

In fact, it could possibly (though not super likely) take 19th place this weekend. It's got to make about $37 Million to do it. It will be close with the -37% and -35% drops the movie saw over the last two weekends. $37 Million this weekend would be just over a -38% drop, but there are no new movies coming out this weekend that should take any revenue away from SMB.

If it doesn't reach 19th it will be so close that it's incidental, but if we're going to get up to 14th place by the end of the run like I predicted earlier, it would be helpful. It would only need to make about another $56 Million domestic at that point to do it.



Zero issue making 20th place like I predicted right now. I still think it's a coin flip that it will hit 19th place unless it has a phenomenal Sunday showing and skews more towards Bruce's prediction than mine.





It's sitting at $921,896,157 worldwide right now and will have zero issue hitting $1 Billion before next weekend even starts. That's 10 times the production budget and at least 75% profit when it happens.



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Sunday, April 30, 2023 10:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
SMB moves up to 24th place above Wakanda Forever with the $8.9 Million projected for Friday Night and nearly $459 Million Domestic so far.

Bruce's Model predicts a $46 Million take for SMB this weekend which would only be a 26% drop from last weekend. I think that's probably far too ambitious with only $9 Million on Friday night (Which is a 37% drop).



Studio Projection: $40 Million for the weekend (a 33% drop in total). Like last weekend, they were probably conservative in their estimate, so it should be slightly higher than that, but not likely crossing $41 Million.


Quote:

Quote:

Will it make 20th place after Sunday like I predicted on the 23rd too?

Easily. It's only got to make $28 Million, which would be a -53% drop from last weekend, and it should come out way ahead of that.

In fact, it could possibly (though not super likely) take 19th place this weekend. It's got to make about $37 Million to do it. It will be close with the -37% and -35% drops the movie saw over the last two weekends. $37 Million this weekend would be just over a -38% drop, but there are no new movies coming out this weekend that should take any revenue away from SMB.



Zero issue making 20th place like I predicted right now. I still think it's a coin flip that it will hit 19th place unless it has a phenomenal Sunday showing and skews more towards Bruce's prediction than mine.



It made nearly $4 Million more than it needed to this weekend to take 19th place. By next weekend it will take over yet another Disney animated property when it eclipses Beauty and the Beast.

I'll have to look more into the numbers later in the week, but my very early prediction for where it will sit on the All Time Domestic list by the end of next weekend is 17th place, beating out Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and poised to take over Star Wars: Rogue One (and The Dark Knight) shortly after that.


As of Sunday night it is now a Billion Dollar movie with $1,022,446,698 worldwide in only 26 days.

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Tuesday, May 2, 2023 10:32 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
SMB moves up to 24th place above Wakanda Forever with the $8.9 Million projected for Friday Night and nearly $459 Million Domestic so far.

Bruce's Model predicts a $46 Million take for SMB this weekend which would only be a 26% drop from last weekend. I think that's probably far too ambitious with only $9 Million on Friday night (Which is a 37% drop).




Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Studio Projection: $40 Million for the weekend (a 33% drop in total). Like last weekend, they were probably conservative in their estimate, so it should be slightly higher than that, but not likely crossing $41 Million.



Official Number: $40,835,805 (32% drop, and $164,195 shy of $41 Million).

Hey Bruce! You hiring?

I'm getting pretty good at this.






SMB's Current Worldwide Gross: $1,023,067,382

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Thursday, May 4, 2023 11:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It made nearly $4 Million more than it needed to this weekend to take 19th place. By next weekend it will take over yet another Disney animated property when it eclipses Beauty and the Beast.

I'll have to look more into the numbers later in the week, but my very early prediction for where it will sit on the All Time Domestic list by the end of next weekend is 17th place, beating out Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and poised to take over Star Wars: Rogue One (and The Dark Knight) shortly after that.



Once the numbers are in for Thursday night, SMB SHOULD have cracked $500 Million Domestic in 30 days before going into its 5th weekend. If it falls short of this, it won't be by much.

There's no doubt it will take 17th place after this weekend. The only question is by how much. The weekend drops for the movie have been 37%, 35% and 32%. If that keeps up, another 37% drop would clock in at somewhere in the area of another $25 to $26 Million this weekend, pulling in roughly $10 Million more than it needed.


I still think there's zero chance it pulls in more than $600 Million Domestic and threatens Incredibles 2 for the highest grossing animated film in the US box office, but at $525 Million it would only need to make another $18.5 Million to meet my prediction and become the 2nd highest animated film as well as the 14th highest Domestic release of all time.

It should be able to sleepwalk to that goal at this point.


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Thursday, May 4, 2023 6:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Once the numbers are in for Thursday night, SMB SHOULD have cracked $500 Million Domestic in 30 days before going into its 5th weekend. If it falls short of this, it won't be by much.



It's just about $3k shy of needing $2 Million tonight to crack $500 Million going into the weekend. It's too hard to say if it will or wont based off of how it's trended so far. Some weeks it makes more on Thursday than it did on Wednesday and vice-versa. It will need to make roughly $13k more tonight than it did last night to make it there.

Quote:

I still think there's zero chance it pulls in more than $600 Million Domestic and threatens Incredibles 2 for the highest grossing animated film in the US box office...


Bruce's model now predicts SMB will make $597 Million before it leaves the theaters.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254110830-2023-market-prediction-Mari
o-and-major-new-announcements-push-market-prediction-above-10-billion-for-the-year


That would be $11.5 Million shy of overtaking Incredibles 2.

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Friday, May 5, 2023 4:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah... It wasn't even close. I had a bad feeling for SMB hitting $500 Million on Thursday night after I saw the numbers for Evil Dead Rise and a few other movies. Pretty slow night for movies all around, including the Thursday night preview of Guardians 3 that only got $17.5 Million.

I'm not going to make any Guardians predictions just yet, but $17.5 Million was exactly what Antman Quantumania made in Thursday night previews when it first released, so make of that what you will.



SMB is at $499,527,705 going into the weekend. By tomorrow it will be ahead of Beauty and the Beast and by Sunday it will overtake Rise of Skywalker on the All Time Domestic list. No chance it's going to leap frog Rogue One for 16th place by the end of the weekend, but it probably will do so next week some time. If not, it will do so next weekend surely.

That will be 3 more bitch slaps to Disney this week.

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Saturday, May 6, 2023 1:57 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce predicts over $30 Million for SMB this weekend. If he's right, it should take Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place by Tuesday or Wednesday night at the latest. Then it won't be long until it coasts to my prediction of 14th place all time, likely in the middle of next weekend.

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Saturday, May 6, 2023 11:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce predicts over $30 Million for SMB this weekend. If he's right, it should take Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place by Tuesday or Wednesday night at the latest. Then it won't be long until it coasts to my prediction of 14th place all time, likely in the middle of next weekend.

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$30 Million....? Not super likely.

Friday Previews: $4,200,000

That's a 56% drop from last Friday, and in order to get $30.3 Million like Bruce's model predicted it would need to drop only 26% for the weekend.

I'm going to guess $23 Million or less. Since it's a kid's movie it could still do better on Saturday and Sunday to make up for this Friday Night number, but if the Saturday/Sunday numbers hold to their pattern based off of previous Friday nights I wouldn't expect much more than $20 Million, actually.

Guardians numbers aren't out for last night yet, but I'm thinking that there might still be some gas in the tank for that franchise and it took away more ticket sales from SMB than Bruce's model predicted.


So, it didn't beat Beauty and the Beast last night and that was pushed back a day. It will still end up at 17th place all time domestic after Sunday night and beat out Beauty and The Last Jedi, but it's certainly not going to be taking 16th place until next weekend some time after Friday's number came in.

The end result will be an easy 14th place like my original prediction still, but it will take just a little bit longer to get there. At this point I think there's zero hope it can cross $600 Million and be the top animated film of all time in the US, but I never really had any belief that it was going to accomplish that feat anyhow.

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Monday, May 8, 2023 7:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
$30 Million....? Not super likely.

Friday Previews: $4,200,000

That's a 56% drop from last Friday, and in order to get $30.3 Million like Bruce's model predicted it would need to drop only 26% for the weekend.

I'm going to guess $23 Million or less. Since it's a kid's movie it could still do better on Saturday and Sunday to make up for this Friday Night number, but if the Saturday/Sunday numbers hold to their pattern based off of previous Friday nights I wouldn't expect much more than $20 Million, actually.



Actual: $18,551,620 (A -55% drop from last weekend)

Quote:

So, it didn't beat Beauty and the Beast last night and that was pushed back a day. It will still end up at 17th place all time domestic after Sunday night and beat out Beauty and The Last Jedi, but it's certainly not going to be taking 16th place until next weekend some time after Friday's number came in.


I knew there was no way it was going to make Bruce's prediction, but with an even lower take this weekend that I expected, it still easily took 17th place, but it now has to make $15.5 Million to take 16th place. I still think that it can do this by the end of next weekend, but that all depends on how much it drops this week from last week. If we have another 55% drop off of last week it will come up short and it won't happen until sometime during the week the following weekend.

Quote:

The end result will be an easy 14th place like my original prediction still, but it will take just a little bit longer to get there. At this point I think there's zero hope it can cross $600 Million and be the top animated film of all time in the US, but I never really had any belief that it was going to accomplish that feat anyhow.


$25.5 Million is still a guaranty before SMB leaves the theaters and it will make my original prediction of 14th place. If I hadn't already said that the chance that it beats Incredibles 2 for 13th place and the highest grossing animated film in the US was zero before, I'd be saying it now for sure.


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Saturday, May 13, 2023 10:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I doubt very much that SMB is going to get the $7.8 Million that it would need to take 16th place from Rogue One at the end of Sunday after its $2.9 Million Friday projection (-31%).

Bruce's model once again highly overstated how well the movie would do for the 2nd weekend in a row, it would appear. He's got it making $15.5 million by Sunday night, which would only be a 16% drop from last weekend. Maybe with Mother's Day on Sunday this is a possibility, but I doubt it.


But unlike last weekend, the larger than expected drop wasn't due to Guardians of the Galaxy V3. That movie too did not do well on Friday, dropping 67% from the previous Friday. Those are Antman numbers. If those numbers don't pick up this weekend, Disney has a bigger MCU problem than anybody thought.

Maybe summer is finally in the air and people just skipped going to the theater on Friday night and decided to wait until Fast X comes out.

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Sunday, May 14, 2023 3:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


If the studio's projection of $13 Million for the weekend is par or low, SMB leapfrogged over Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place all time Domestic . Probably not a ton of gas in the Mario Kart tank, but it will easily get to 14th place like I originally predicted it would.



If the studio projections for Guardians are right, they more than made up for Friday's terrible number and only fell around 50% in their second weekend, which would make it only the third lowest 2nd weekend drop in MCU history.

Nobody should read too much into that since Guardians was popular enough a franchise that it SHOULD have had results like this despite how poorly the MCU in general has been doing otherwise. But the heads at Disney surely have to be breathing huge sighs of relief right now. If Guardians failed, the MCU was officially dead.

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Tuesday, May 16, 2023 10:13 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Studio Projections were a tad high, but still enough to take 15th place on Sunday.

$8.1 Million to get my prediction 14th place will be a cakewalk. No way in hell it's going to make another $73 Million to take 13th place and the top spot for an animated film.


Disney employees should be forced to watch Incredibles 2 on repeat until they figure out why it made so much money and is the only animated film they've ever released to outsell SMB. The ones who can't figure it out and/or don't want to admit why it succeeded where they constantly fail should be fired immediately.

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Wednesday, May 17, 2023 9:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


At the end of the day, Disney can do all the celebrating it wants to that a Guardian's of the Galaxy flick that should never have been a failure is meeting lowered expectations, but I just noticed that it's doing quite a bit less business than the Super Mario movie did at the same time.

Day 12 and it made $226,339,792 so far domestic. After Day 12, SMB already made $353,170,890. Guardians' production budget was also 2.5 times higher at $250 Million vs. SMB's $100 Million.

At $515 Million it's already broke even after marketing and theater costs, but it will make quite a bit less money than SMB did and it had to make about $300 Million more than SMB had to make before they started making cash for their investors.


Funny that I haven't seen anybody report those facts yet. Not even the YouTubers that usually cover these things.



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Thursday, May 18, 2023 8:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The whole premise of the possibility that Diney might learn a lesson is just.....laughable.

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Thursday, May 18, 2023 9:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The whole premise of the possibility that Diney might learn a lesson is just.....laughable.



They don't have a printing press and venture capital has dried up.

Their shares are down $104 from their peak 2 years ago. They've laid off 7,000 employees so far in 2023. They lost 4 Million subscribers to Disney+ which makes two straight quarters of losses for their streaming service. They're being sued for lying to investors about their Disney+ numbers. They're shutting down their failed Star Wars hotel at the theme park. They seem to have a new brawl happening at one of their American theme parks every week. They've lost their "family friendly" and "kid safe" expectations. Except for Guardians of the Galaxy which is doing moderately OK for a Marvel flick, and White Men Can't Panther last year, they've put out one losing movie after another for going on 2 years now (I'm not counting the few winners put out by FOX Studios, who Disney is rewarding by downsizing). Their last two live remakes went straight to Disney+ because they knew they'd bomb in the theaters. They're stuck putting The Little Mermaid in theaters because of their identity politics and they hyped it up so much and already sunk more money into marketing it than it cost to make.

Disney is mortally wounded right now.

They'd better do something, and quick.

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Sunday, May 21, 2023 10:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


SMB overtakes The Lion King this weekend to place it 14th all-time domestic and 2nd place for animated all-time domestic. This, as I'd predicted long ago, is where it will land by the time it is removed from theaters. It would have to make another $59 Million before then to become the highest grossing animated film, and with only $9.8 million over the weekend and summer movie season ramping up that would be nearly impossible.

Here's the records that it holds today:

All Time Domestic Animated Box Office: 2
All Time Domestic Box Office: 14
All Time Domestic Inflation Adjusted Box Office: 43
All Time Domestic Non-Sequel Box Office: 5
Top 2023 Movies at the Domestic Box Office: 1
All Time Domestic Box Office for Based on Game Movies: 1
All Time Domestic Box Office for Digital Animation Movies: 2
All Time Domestic Box Office for Kids Fiction Movies: 2
All Time Domestic Box Office for Action Movies: 10
All Time Domestic Box Office for PG Movies: 2
All Time Domestic Box Office for Universal Movies: 2

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