Will Toy Story 5 hit a Billion? by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

Will Toy Story 5 hit a Billion?

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Monday, June 22, 2026 14:27
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Monday, June 22, 2026 2:27 PM

If you're a media outlet that hasn't yet closed down or replaced all of their staff with A.I., you're probably pretty convinced that it will.

Looking at previous numbers for TS3 and TS4, you probably can't be blamed for that. TS5 did just put out a larger opening weekend both domestically and internationally than either of those did (not adjusted for inflation, anyhow).

But do movies have the longevity in theaters in 2026 that they did in 2019? We already know the answer to that question is no. And we know there's certainly no way that 2026 can run against movie run lengths back in 2010 when TS3 came out.

Toy Story 3 (2010) was in theaters 46 days before it saw its first sub-Million day in the US.

Toy Story 4 (2019) was in theaters 53 days before it saw its first sub-Million day in the US.

Let's look at other movies from the Top 10 this year...

Super Mario Bros Galaxy: Our only Billion Dollar Club movie on the list so far, had its first sub-million day only 33 days into its run.

Obsession and Backrooms: They're still making 1 Million + per day, but they're only around 30 days into their runs and aren't even close to being contenders for the Billion Dollar Club with a very muted international number compared to what the big boys like Disney and Universal would get.

Michael: Not really comparable since it's not a movie and it's a very unique one-time thing happening here. This will be in the Billion Club very soon. It took 53 days for it to make less than 1 Million.

Star Wars Tin Man and Kermit: Only 21 days to our first sub-Million day here.

Avatar: Fire and Ass: And rounding out our Top 10 2026 Domestic box office is the Avatar movie from last year. That is really sad we're halfway through 2026 and Avatar is still in the top 10 domestic grossing movies of 2026 without any of the benefit of its first several weeks in theaters last year.

Even A3 had its first sub-million day 35 days into its run. But unlike any of the other movies on this list will besides arguably Michael, it had a phenomenal international showing and grossed almost $900 Billion outside of the US.

The long and short of it is that it may hit $1 Billion, but when you account for the large amount of inflation that has taken place between 2019 when TS4 came out and today, it's not really a Billion movie. And if you compare it to 2010 when TS3 came out with inflation factored in, I'm not even sure if this will end up being a half-billion run when held up to the numbers 16 years ago.

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USER	POST DATE
6ixStringJack	06.22 14:27