CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, November 23, 2025 21:00
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 21496
PAGE 9 of 9

Saturday, October 25, 2025 12:37 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


it looks like some Japan cartoon horror called Chainsaw Man by Sony Pictures can reach number1

the other two incoming are Regretting You and Springsteen


Universal's Black Phone 2 grossed an estimated $3.79M on Friday
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3m3zmnepd4c2
w



Bugonia 1st Friday $320,000


The Thirteenth Floor (1999) vs. Bugonia (2025) vs. The Birdcage (1996)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Thirtee
nth-Floor-The/Bugonia-(2025)/Birdcage-The#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Bugonia (2025) vs. Nine (2009) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Bugonia
-(2025)/Nine/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Solaris (2002) vs. Bugonia (2025) vs. The Pink Panther (2006)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Solaris
/Bugonia-(2025)/Pink-Panther-The-(2006)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Bugonia (2025) vs. Bangkok Dangerous (2008) vs. Alien: Resurrection (1997)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Bugonia
-(2025)/Bangkok-Dangerous-(2008)/Alien-Resurrection#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Alita: Battle Angel (2019) vs. Bugonia (2025) vs. The Grudge (2004)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Alita-B
attle-Angel-(2019)/Bugonia-(2025)/Grudge-The-(2004)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Bugonia (2025) vs. Quarantine (2008) vs. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Bugonia
-(2025)/Quarantine/Avengers-Age-of-Ultron#tab=day_by_day_comparison



TRON: ARES | 48.6M overseas | 105.5M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33204-tron-ares-486m-overseas
-1055m-worldwide
/

Disney's Tron: Ares grossed an estimated $1.30M on Friday
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1982100639867174913#m



Johnny Depp To Star In ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ At Paramount
https://deadline.com/2025/10/johnny-depp-ebenezer-scrooge-movie-ti-wes
t-1236586975
/

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Saturday, October 25, 2025 2:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
The Thirteenth Floor (1999) vs. Bugonia (2025) vs. The Birdcage (1996)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Thirtee
nth-Floor-The/Bugonia-(2025)/Birdcage-The#tab=day_by_day_comparison



Your comparison here after talking about horror movies dug out an old memory and made me laugh...

I was playing a few drinking games with my girlfriend, her roomate and some of her other friends before going to a campus party and we were playing some game where you had to answer a question without any hesitation if you pulled a certain card and one of her roomate's ex-boyfriends got asked "what's the scariest horror movie you've ever seen?" and he said "The Birdcage".

Somebody said "That's not a horror movie" and told him to drink and he refused and total deadpan he said "That's the scariest movie I've ever seen."



--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Sunday, October 26, 2025 8:02 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


an upcoming action drug bust shoot em up dark comedy crime thriller film directed by Michael Dowse Canada and written by Gary Scott Thompson and Tom O'Connor the Fast n Furious movies

Trap House




Demon Slayer
Friday
$150,000 / $131,887,639

One Battle After Another still makes money
Friday $650,000 / $64,106,387

Tron Ares
Friday $1,300,000 / $59,767,203

Smashing Machine
Friday $13,565 / $11,294,735

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Monday, October 27, 2025 6:05 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Sony Group has no desire to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, CEO says
https://asia.nikkei.com/business/media-entertainment/sony-group-has-no
-desire-to-buy-warner-bros.-discovery-ceo-says


Disney and other box office ? this year Snow White remake is still at 18th place in the US

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Tuesday, November 4, 2025 5:25 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


old Back to the Future has returned to cinema for a re-run

some Indian Hindu Telugu-language movie 'Baahubali' got a release in North America but it doesnt seem to go anywhere

Baahubali: The Epic (2025) vs. Tron: Ares (2025) vs. Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Baahuba
li-The-Epic-(2025-India)/Tron-Ares-(2025)/Demon-Slayer-Kimetsu-no-Yaiba-The-Movie-Infinity-Castle-(2025-Japan)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Disney's Tron: Ares grossed $3.05M this weekend (from 2,575 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $68.15M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1985474028648501706#m


Save the Green Planet 2003


Bugonia remake Budget aprox $45–55 million
https://deadline.com/2025/10/box-office-chainsaw-man-springsteen-regre
tting-you-black-phone-2-1236596417
/
Springsteen Budget $55 million

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Tuesday, November 4, 2025 5:32 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


normally its cheap slasher films not expensive block buster attempts


This year's October box office was the lowest in 28 years – and Halloween was the worst weekend of the year

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/movies/articles/years-october-box-
office-lowest-114119471.html




Warner Bros.’ Sale Is a ‘Red Alert’ Moment for Theaters
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/warner-bros-sale-red-alert-135727547.html
Theaters have already been calling on Hollywood to give them more films, but Warner's acquisition could crush those hopes

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Wednesday, November 5, 2025 7:19 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Five Nights at Freddy's 2...successful?

it missed a chance to win the Halloween box office




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Wednesday, November 5, 2025 7:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I have no predictions for FNAF2, I've been so out of the movie loop for the last 6 months or so.

I think it will show well and make a few bucks, but won't come anywhere near the bragging rights they had after the first movie made so much even when it was streamed at the same time at no additional charge to Peacock customers.

Kids movies seem to be what is really driving most of the Box Office in 2025. Whether it's kids movies that were made for kids, or kids movies that were aimed for adults...

WORLDWIDE TOP 10 (Allegedly):

1 Ne Zha 2 $2,000,944,213
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,037,869,713
3 A Minecraft Movie $957,195,130
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $868,348,944
5 Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie $667,982,716
6 How to Train Your Dragon
7 F1: The Movie $630,303,615
8 Superman $616,584,465
9 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $591,353,074
10 The Fantastic Four: First Steps $520,636,922


I'll make no bones about it... I don't believe China at all when they say that Ne Zha 2 made over $2 Billion. There are zero checks and balances on the Chinese Government telling themselves, their citizens and the world that the movie their government created made twice as much money as any Hollywood film to come out in 2025.

We aided and abetted them lying about creating Covid in a lab with our funding. We'll apparently just ignore this completely ridiculous and bogus claim and let it stand. Honestly, it isn't very important when compared to other worldwide issues, so I can hardly fault the logic.

Are you going to be the American reporter that goes undercover and digs up the real dirt on these claims and live to tell about it? I know I'm not.


Anyway...



Even with that $2 Billion movie in there, that Top 10 is one of the saddest things I've seen. It's so little.

I can't speak for the Chinese movie, but nearly everything else I see up there is trite crap...

Not one, but TWO live action remakes. Universal joins Disney, cashing in on the nostalgia with How to Train your Dragon alongside Lilo and Stitch.

The seventh or eighth or ninth or whatever Jurassic Park movie nobody asked for.

The fourth or fifth Superman reboot nobody asked for.

Number 9 is probably not half bad, but is the second of the final two Mission Impossible / Tom Cruise installments that lost hundreds of millions of dollars despite making more than half a billion.

And all of this while a Japanese Anime that only cost $20 Million to make embarrasses nearly everyone else on the entire Top 100 list and off of it with how much money that raked in worldwide.


The only even remotely interesting movie in the Top 10 is the F1 movie. And I say that knowing that I have no interest in racing on any level and will probably never see it. But I always did like Days of Thunder, so maybe it's worth a watch.





They made a huge mistake not releasing FNAF2 before Halloween though. I'll bet some people got fired over that. That will probably come back to bite them in the ass with their second problem, which is the fact they had more 250% for the budget this time around with $51 Million.

The first movie needed less than the sequel's production budget to break even, and it went on to make nearly six times that. FNAF2 is going to need to make $125 Million just to break even this time around. My guess is that it does this fairly easily, but doesn't really make much money beyond that. It might surprise me and make over $250 Million worldwide, but I kinda doubt it.

--------------------------------------------------

For all that I've blessed, and all that I've wronged. In dreams until my death, I will wander on.

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Thursday, November 6, 2025 2:04 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


'Kids' movies not sure...its possible we might have some late arrivals in December that will spill over into Jan, February of 2026

a new Avatar is late December, new Sponge Bob, remake of The Running Man in November, Foreign movies Sisu was a hit so there is Sisu Road to Revenge...not sure if there will be a 'Sonic' type movie that sees earings cross into the next year, if there is early 2026 has Greenland 2 Migration, 28 Years Later The Bone Temple, Return to Silent Hill

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Thursday, November 6, 2025 2:05 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Disney / 20th Century's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere grossed $692K on Tuesday (from 3,460 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $17.35M

https://x.com/BORReport/status/1986167660619702667#m


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Friday, November 7, 2025 9:04 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Behind ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Sequel Deal: Netflix Awards Sony $15 Million Cash Bonus for First Film, Raising Total Payout to $40 Million

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/kpop-demon-hunters
-netflix-awards-sony-1236420465
/

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Thursday, November 13, 2025 6:52 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


unpredictable overseas?

Cinemas in Singapore turn to private bookings as movie attendance falls
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/cinema-hall-bookings-private
-alternative-content-events-5462191




the latest hope for cash is Predator Badlands


Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) vs. Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. Sarah’s Oil (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Avenger
s-Age-of-Ultron/Predator-Badlands-(2025)/Sarahs-Oil-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. Captain America: Civil War (2016) vs. Nuremberg (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Predato
r-Badlands-(2025)/Captain-America-Civil-War/Nuremberg-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Alien: Covenant (2017) vs. Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. AVP: Alien Vs. Predator (2004)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Alien-C
ovenant/Predator-Badlands-(2025)/AVP-Alien-Vs-Predator#tab=day_by_day_comparison





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Friday, November 14, 2025 7:33 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Saturday, November 15, 2025 7:10 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Predator Badlands $15,898,455 on Friday

followed by a strong weekend

then first Thursday?

$1,712,829 /
$53,304,860


Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. A Quiet Place (2018) vs. Alien: Resurrection (1997)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Predato
r-Badlands-(2025)/Quiet-Place-A-(2018)/Alien-Resurrection#tab=day_by_day_comparison



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Saturday, November 15, 2025 4:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I've heard some people like Yellow Flash say he thought the movie would break even, but I don't see Predator making its money back. I think in Yellow Flash's case, he's been about as bored with Hollywood and movies as I have and he stopped paying attention and forgot how these things work.

It made less than 80% of its production budget back on opening weekend worldwide, and when I was paying attention and cataloging the Top 100 for 2 years there, only 2 or 3 other movies with an opening weekend under 80% came back. Universal's Migration came back and actually made Universal a lot of money. Disney's Elemental more or less broke even at the end of its run, which was a miracle with how low the opening weekend turnout was compared to how high Disney budgets usually are. But they were both kids movies.

I think this is a case of anybody who wanted to see it has already seen it, and there won't be many repeat viewings. Bruce is only predicting less than $16 Million this weekend, which is right around where I would have expected the fall to be from $40 Million. It made a projected $3.5 Million last night compared to $10,098,445 on opening Friday, which is a 65% drop. It's marked as a -78% drop when compared to the opening weekend including Thursday's previews.

To put that into perspective, with preview nights included, The Marvels (2023) dropped -87% on the 2nd Friday and Indiana Jones 5 only dropped -67%. Both were massive, massive flops for Disney.

It needs in the area of $260 Million to break even. Right now it's got $96. I'll add another $15 Million domestic for Sat/Sun just to be safe, and I'll give another $40 Million for the international market 1st week finish/2nd weekend. Now you're at $151 Million. (And I think this is pretty conservative and they won't get that high. I'm just not going to change it because there could be some new countries in there that would boost it back up even if there are sharp 2nd weekend drops everywhere else).

Where do you go from there? How are you going to get $110 more million when your 3rd weekend is going to be grossing somewhere around $6-$8 Million domestic, and the opening weekend was a pure 50/50 spit domestic/international?

Somehow this thing got a Cinemascore of "A-". I don't understand that since it sounds like word of mouth for this movie is not good.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Sunday, November 16, 2025 8:03 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


that Japan Anime Chainsaw Man seems to struggle, the overall sucessful of Anime at US cinema might be more of a sign of Hollywood weakness than a sign of strength of those Japanese cartoons


'Keeper' movie, another horror that missed Halloween?

However its budget is reported as low as 6 Million
https://deadline.com/2025/11/box-office-now-you-see-me-3-running-man-p
redator-badlands-1236617534
/


Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. The Predator (2018) vs. Prometheus (2012)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Predato
r-Badlands-(2025)/Predator-The-(2018)/Prometheus#tab=day_by_day_comparison



BLACK PHONE 2 | 50.3M overseas | 120.4M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/34060-the-black-phone-2-503m-
overseas-1204m-worldwide
/


Running Man a 2025 dystopian action thriller remake, Now You See Me is a 2013 a criminal thriller talented magicians stealing items movie, American heist film, this is another remake a third installment, Now You See Me: Now You Don't

Friday, November 2025
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1989751301027274860
1. #NowYouSeeMe - $8.40M
2. #RunningManMovie - $6.45M
3. #PredatorBadlands - $3.50M
4. #RegrettingYouMovie - $1.22M
5. #Keeper - $1.05M
6. #BlackPhone2 - $740K
7. #NurembergFilm - $700K

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:


Where do you go from there?



I dont know, maybe they are expecting a huge overseas in China, Germany, Japan, France, Australia?



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Monday, November 17, 2025 6:28 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Wednesday, November 19, 2025 7:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance Said to Prep $71 Billion Warner Bros. Discovery Bid With Three Arab Sovereign Wealth Funds

https://variety.com/2025/biz/news/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-arab
-sovereign-wealth-funds-1236584624
/

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Wednesday, November 19, 2025 1:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance Said to Prep $71 Billion Warner Bros. Discovery Bid With Three Arab Sovereign Wealth Funds

https://variety.com/2025/biz/news/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-arab
-sovereign-wealth-funds-1236584624
/



We will see. There was an update that either you missed, or that happened after you posted the article. At the very top now:

Quote:

UPDATED: Paramount Skydance has denied a Variety report that the company was forming an investment consortium with the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi to submit a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery,

“The information Variety published is categorically inaccurate,” a rep for Paramount Skydance said in a statement. “This is a confidential process, which we respect and, as such, will not be commenting until the process is over.”



This is a huge fucking problem though, if true.

If you thought Woke was bad, just wait until the camel jockies buy up all of our media in fire sales, due to all of these companies destroying themselves with the woke shit.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:34 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


a kids movies usually does well during the Christmas period in 'The West' while Asia also takes a break but the celebration centers around New Year


Zootopia 2, big numbers expected
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32964-zootopia-ii/page/2/#com
ments


‘Moana’ Trailer Sails To 182M Views In First Day, 2nd Best For A Disney Live-Action Movie Behind ‘The Lion King’
https://deadline.com/2025/11/moana-trailer-record-traffic-1236624044/

‘Wicked: For Good’ Aims for Biggest Opening of 2025 With $150 Million to $180 Million Debut
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/wicked-for-good-box-office-op
ening-weekend-projection-record-1236584693
/



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Friday, November 21, 2025 5:36 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Paramount, Netflix & Comcast Submit Warner Bros Discovery Bids

https://deadline.com/2025/11/paramount-netflix-comcast-submit-wbd-bids
-1236625396
/

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Saturday, November 22, 2025 12:18 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Oscars: Academy Reveals List Of Eligible Documentary, Animation & International Features

https://deadline.com/2025/11/oscars-eligible-films-2026-documentary-an
imation-international-1236625972
/

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Sunday, November 23, 2025 6:12 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Brendan Fraser Says ‘Batgirl’ Cancellation Is an Example of Movies Being ‘Commodified’ in Hollywood: ‘It’s More Valuable to Burn it Down and Get the Insurance’

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/brendan-fraser-batgirl-movies-commo
dified-content-hollywood-1236589653
/

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Sunday, November 23, 2025 3:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like Wicked 2 is going to be the top grossing US movie of 2025 according to Bruce.



https://www.the-numbers.com/news/260340830-Weekend-projections-Wicked-
For-Good-soars-to-150-million-domestic-debut




Bruce must have forgotten that Avatar 3 drops on December 19th.

Although I'd love to see everyone check out of that and watch it make less than Wicked, I doubt very much that's going to happen.


C'mon Bruce. You do this for a living, dude.


Wicked 1 made $756 Million worldwide.

Avatar 1 made $2.923 BILLION worldwide back in 2009 which after 16 years and 4 years of Bidenflation in the middle of it is probably closer to $5 Billion today than it is to $3 Billion.

Avatar 2 three years ago made $2.322 BILLION.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Wicked-
(2024)/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)/Avatar/Avatar-The-Way-of-Water-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison





So what if Wicked 2 is making 30% more domestically and 17% more internationally on opening weekend? Absolute BEST case scenario it breaks $1 Billion (and I'm being EXTREMELY generous saying that).

For Wicked 2 to be the top grossing movie of 2025, Avatar 3 would have to lose about 60% of it's 2022 audience without even factoring in 3 years of inflation to those numbers.

Stop simping for the two Ozempic addicted, glassy-eyed weirdos. They're just not into you dude.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Sunday, November 23, 2025 4:27 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Disney / 20th Century's Predator: Badlands has passed the $150M global mark. The film grossed an estimated $7.2M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $83.3M, estimated global total stands at $159.6M.
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3m6cqiv25lc2
t


part II of Wicked is expected to have a boost in the US with parents taking kids to the movie during Thanksgiving

nu Disney’s Snow White will probably fall down more on the yearly charts

the new Wicked might struggle in Europe and Asia but its doing very good in the English speaking world

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/34054-wicked-for-good/#commen
ts



Wicked: For Good (2025) vs. Wicked (2024) vs. Frozen II (2019)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Wicked-
For-Good-(2025)/Wicked-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Predator: Badlands (2025) vs. Wicked: For Good (2025) vs. Moana 2 (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Predato
r-Badlands-(2025)/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)/Moana-2-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Wicked: For Good (2025) vs. Rio 2 (2014) vs. Les Misérables (2012)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Wicked-
For-Good-(2025)/Rio-2/Miserables-Les-(2012)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Sunday, November 23, 2025 9:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Disney / 20th Century's Predator: Badlands has passed the $150M global mark. The film grossed an estimated $7.2M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $83.3M, estimated global total stands at $159.6M.
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3m6cqiv25lc2
t




And what did Jack have to say...

November 15th:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It needs in the area of $260 Million to break even. Right now it's got $96. I'll add another $15 Million domestic for Sat/Sun just to be safe, and I'll give another $40 Million for the international market 1st week finish/2nd weekend. Now you're at $151 Million. (And I think this is pretty conservative and they won't get that high. I'm just not going to change it because there could be some new countries in there that would boost it back up even if there are sharp 2nd weekend drops everywhere else).

Where do you go from there? How are you going to get $110 more million when your 3rd weekend is going to be grossing somewhere around $6-$8 Million domestic, and the opening weekend was a pure 50/50 spit domestic/international?



Yerp.


Now they need $100 Million more, and they're going to make around $2.5 to $3.5 Million next weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
Sun, November 23, 2025 21:00 - 426 posts
Horror movies and Scary Tv making a comeback?
Sun, November 23, 2025 11:32 - 104 posts
The Matrix Resurrections
Sun, November 23, 2025 11:18 - 13 posts
The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things
Thu, November 20, 2025 08:31 - 55 posts
Joker
Fri, November 14, 2025 07:46 - 204 posts
Reagan
Mon, October 27, 2025 02:51 - 20 posts
The Order
Sun, October 26, 2025 08:01 - 3 posts
Am I a Racist?
Sun, October 26, 2025 07:28 - 4 posts
Kill (Hindi language)
Sun, October 26, 2025 07:25 - 4 posts
2000 Mules
Sat, October 25, 2025 14:08 - 37 posts
Lefty Trash Movies that were meant to come out 4 years ago...
Fri, October 24, 2025 07:15 - 16 posts
Hollywood Fatigue...people flee California and is Hollyweird finished? Trump hits other non-Hollyweirdo movies with sanctions and 100% tariffs
Mon, October 20, 2025 11:22 - 29 posts

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