CINEMA

The 2023 Disney Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, January 25, 2024 10:58
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VIEWED: 2378
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Tuesday, June 20, 2023 12:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 01/22/2024]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629

The Marvels Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65760

The Wish Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65805

NOTE 1: With most sites including Variety and Deadline calling films that grossed 2.0x of their budget failures, and most movies sites tracking the success or failure of a movie's ability to break even based off if it can gross 2.5x of its Production Budget, I have now made 2.5x the marker for whether a movie is a failure or not.

The 2.0x numbers will still be tallied for the rest of the year, but if I choose to track movies again next year I will only be keeping track of 2.5x.


NOTE 2: To not completely ignore international changes from week to week, I've simplified the explanation of +/- money any movie makes whether it's still in theaters or not for each entry. Just one single line now.


Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$345,468,744 [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]


The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $568,345,048 (227% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$56,654,952 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$68,345,048 [FINAL]


The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $82,344,833 (234% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$5,155,167 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$12,344,833 [FINAL]


Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $486,663,342 (243% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$13,336,658
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$86,663,342

Chevalier [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (June 16th, 2023)
Production Budget: $46,000,000
source: https://bestmoviecast.com/chevalier-2023-cast-release-date-plot-budget
-box-office-trailer/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $1,521,288 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $3,864,206 (9% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$111,135,794 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$88,135,794 [FINAL]


Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $381,561,976 (127% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$368,438,024
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$218,438,024


Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: $8,000,000
source: https://www.joblo.com/reviewsynecdoche-new-york/page/204/?year&fir
st_letter=G&sortby=oldest&rating=6

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $301,220 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $4,645,869 (58% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$15,354,131
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$11,354,131


Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $158,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $33,082,475 (21% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $114,797,989 (73% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$280,202,011
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$201,202,011


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: $60,000,000
source: https://screenrant.com/a-haunting-in-venice-movie-box-office-opening-w
eekend-explained
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $36,979,529 (62% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $113,793,243 (190% of Production Budget)
*Gained $195,633 since last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,206,757
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$6,206,757


The Creator [20th Century Studios] (September 29th, 2023)
Production Budget: $80,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Creator-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $32,300,000 (40% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $104,272,136 (130% of Production Budget)
*Gained $5,508,394 since last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$95,727,864 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$55,727,864 [FINAL]


The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: $275,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $108,998,133 (40% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $199,724,382 (73% of Production Budget)
*Lost $244,213 since last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$487,775,618
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$350,275,618


Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $10,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Next-Goal-Wins-(US-Film)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $2,500,295 (30% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $15,809,205 (160% of Production Budget)
*Gained $5,572,286 from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$9,190,795
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$4,190,795

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wish-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $48,907,681 (25% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $233,160,216 (117% of Production Budget)
*Gained $56,338,364 from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$266,839,784
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$166,839,784

Poor Things [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/792307-poor-things?language=en-US
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $661,230 (2% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $33,696,304 (97% of Production Budget)
*Gained $22,035,534 from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$53,803,696
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$36,303,696


All Of Us Strangers [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: Good luck finding it.
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $117,965
Current Worldwide Gross: $2,316,472 382,635
*Gained $1,933,837 from last update. (01/22)

Net Gain/Loss: Unknown
We're not counting this movie at all unless somebody puts an honest number out for the production budget. The only dollar figure I even managed to find was from comicbook.com, and it claims the Production Budget was $0.00.

https://comicbook.com/category/all-of-us-strangers/



TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.5x RoT]: -$1,785,717,204
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.0x RoT]: -$732,217,204






CANCELLED DISNEY MOVIES:

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
[CANCELLED]

Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



It would be impossible to gauge how much money they lose on streaming on a show-to-show basis, but it appears I can tell you how much money the shows cost to produce and how poorly they are received.

NOTES ON STREAMING (07/19/2023): It has been reported that the 6 episodes of Secret Invasion cost $212 Million to make, or $35.3 Million per episode. That's quite expensive considering that almost every scene is just 2 or 3 characters sitting inside a room talking to each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
/

It has also been reported that Disney will lose another $800,000,000+ this quarter on Disney+. This brings the entire loss on their streaming service to over $4 Billion since it was launched.

https://dlnewstoday.com/2023/07/breaking-ceo-bob-iger-considering-sell
ing-streaming-services-and-other-assets-may-even-try-to-sell-entire-disney-company
/


NOTES ON STREAMING (07/31/2023): The 6th and final episode of Secret Invasion is now officially the lowest rated critics score for any Marvel TV Show property in history at only 7%, with one critic writing "A huge miscalculation in emphasizing brawn over brain, this finale is so misjudged that most MCU fans will want to keep it secret from their collective memory."

Way to spend $212 Million, Disney.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06/reviews?intc
mp=rt-scorecard_tomatometer-reviews


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Tuesday, June 20, 2023 7:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


What constitutes a Win vs. a Loss?

There's one simple mathmateical rule that makes or breaks a film in this analysis. This is that a film's TOTAL cost is figured by doubling production budget for the marketing budget and theater take. No ifs, ands or buts.

Obviously, every circumstance is unique to a degree, and there SHOULD be nuance here... but because the Studios do not release anything more than production budgets (most of the time) and choose to hide marketing budgets and theater takes as much as they hide their streaming numbers on their streaming services, the only choice we're left with here is to go with what has become the generally accepted rule of thumb when it comes to the number a film needs to make in the box office to break even, which is twice the stated Production Budget.

Some people might (rightly) point out that this is unfair to certain movies because their marketing wasn't huge and they didn't see a lot of ads on TV for a particular release, but again, we don't actually get these figures in the end, nor do we get any numbers on actually how many ads were played on TV, streaming, radio, etc. and any complaints about this for a movie would be purely anecdotal.

That being said, this can also work out to benefit particular movies greatly as well. It's said that Disney spent $10 Million of their Marketing budget alone to put a very poorly received ad for The Little Mermaid right in the middle of the 2023 Oscars, and that the marketing budget of this particular flick ended up being MUCH higher than the amount that would fit our rule of thumb, with some industry insiders making the claim that The Little Mermaid would actually need to make $700 to $750 Million to break even instead of the $500 Million that we're counting here. Again, I consider this claim to be baseless unless absolutely proven without a doubt otherwise, and the rule of thumb stands.


But I would like to make a special note here...

Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE came out and said that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania a disappointment at best and a major flop at worst. Nobody, except for people attached to the movie have said otherwise. Even uber-Leftist Disney shill site Vox used it as the poster child for its "Marvel Flop Era" article.

Yet that movie met and exceeded the rule of thumb, earning $463,635,303 worldwide, and $63,635,303 (or 15.9%) above the $400,000,000 rule of thumb total after doubling the $200,000,000 production budget.

A slim win for Disney, and one that doesn't do much to offset its growing 2023 Box Office losses, but a win nonetheless.



So I just find it curious how the same websites which were shockingly quick (and frankly just downright shocking) to point out that Quantumania was a failure and a disappointment for Disney will say out of the other side of their faces that The Little Mermaid (which currently sits at -$34,747,565 below the Rule of Thumb and will not likely do as well as Quantumanaia's 15.9% above when its done) is not a failure or a flop. Particularly when the same reasoning behind why it is a flop should apply. ie: Marvel used to make $1 Billion+ nearly every movie VS. Disney live-action remakes almost always made $1 Billion+.


The truth is that even though Quantumania is a "Winner" on the list, it was still a flop for Disney, and even though The Little Mermaid will very likely just make the Winner list by the skin of its teeth before exiting theaters, it is also a flop for Disney.


Had both of these movies made $1 Billion like they were almost certainly expected to when the heads of the studio went into starting the productions, Disney would already be up in the 2023 Box Office by over $800 Million, and they would not be nearly as concerned about their current Pixar Elemental flop or their impending Indy 5 flop.


Disney DESPERATELY needs a win, and in all honesty I don't really see one coming for the rest of the year. Some of their smaller FOX Searchlight movies will probably do alright. The small budget Stephen King movie The Boogeyman might end up breaking even and making a few bucks by the time it exits theaters. The two remaining announced big budget Disney releases this year The Haunted Mansion and Wish may end up doing good business if they don't end up being more woke trash that audiences don't want to see anymore.

But with the exception of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. which was still disappointing but will have made Disney around $330 Million by the time it exits theaters, the other movies that should have been surefire successes in previous years and only break even in 2023 will not offset the major losses.

By the time Indy 5 has come and gone, Disney is going to have a hole at least $300 Million that it needs to spend the rest of the year crawling out of. And with the writers strike still going strong, they probably can't write re-shoots to make to change any of the bigger budget movies last minute to try to save themselves.

They'd better hope that they didn't screw up The Haunted Mansion and Wish, because with The Marvels being the only other Marvel movie planned for release this year, they don't have much of a hope of climbing out of that $300 Million and growing hole they dug for themselves otherwise.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Wednesday, June 21, 2023 6:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


FIRINGS:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (June 16th, 2023):
Long-time Disney shot-caller Christine McCarthy fired from Disney. She was treasurer for the company from 2000 to 2015 when she was promoted to Disney's CFO.

Many considered her next in line after Bob Iger for the CEO position. She was behind removing Bob Chapek and putting Iger back in charge just late last year.

Everyone is saying she's taking "family medical leave", but Iger has said they're already searching for her permanent replacement. They're going to give her some sort of "advisor" title until her contract is up in June of next year, where she will still be making her $20 Million per year salary.

She was CFO during the entire time that Disney ruined Star Wars, Marvel, their own animation studio and their own Pixar brand. Nobody can blame the ruination of Indiana Jones on her, however, since Kingdom of the Crystal Skull came out 7 years before she took the position. The newest entry coming out in 8 days won't help the brand though.



This isn't indicative of Disney making any steps forward to fixing its brand since Bob Iger is still in charge. Though relatively ineffective, it was easy for everyone to throw Bob Chapek under the bus when he got politically involved in Florida and became the catalyst for Disney losing their Reedy Creek special status in the state, but Bob Iger has been the true face of the decline of Disney after the Renaissance years of Michael Eisner in the late 80's through the early 2000s.





Disney's "Chief Diversity Officer" FIRED



This was announced at 9:30PM on Juneteenth and HR put a memo out for her to her former employees. She isn't moving on her own accord. She was fired, and she likely had a nice security escort right out her door to her car.



They're "searching" for a new DEI. Why bother? Shut it down.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Wednesday, June 21, 2023 7:22 PM

WHOZIT


Doomcock is saying Leslye Headland just got the boot from Lucasfilm

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Wednesday, June 21, 2023 8:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Doomcock is saying Leslye Headland just got the boot from Lucasfilm



That's interesting, and it would be another great step forward for Disney, but I'll believe that when I see it. I've been hearing Doomcock say for years that Kathleen Kennedy was going to be fired.

He's got some good sources, and he's got some bad sources.

I don't see anything out there other than his video and a few YT copycats talking about him talking about it yet.

Would be a nice surprise to wake up to in the morning though.

I mean... Not for that man-hating diversity hire bitch, but a nice surprise for people who like good movies.



--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Monday, June 26, 2023 12:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like a lot more people are talking about the firing of Leslye Headland and the cancellation of Acolyte, but it's all still rumors, despite several outlets claiming that this has been confirmed in their headlines.

My guess is that if this is actually true, you're not going to hear any legitimate confirmation until late on Friday so it gets no Legacy Media news coverage and they can attempt to sweep it under the rug for the normies.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Monday, June 26, 2023 8:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Stats for 6/20/2023:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0

Net Gain/Loss: -$170 Million - Marketing Costs



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend:
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $819,594,064 (328% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)

Net Gain/Loss: +$319,594,064 Million (as of 06/20/2023)



Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $465,252,435 (186% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)

Net Gain/Loss: -$34,747,565 (as of 06/20/2023)


The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $51,212,827 (145% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)

Net Gain/Loss: -$18,787,173 (as of 06/20/2023)

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)

Net Gain/Loss: -$355,397,571 (as of 06/20/2023)


Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $295,000,000
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

CANCELLED MOVIES:

Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]

So far in 2023, we've got a cancelled Star Wars flick and Disney is currently down $195,702,942 with current Box Office numbers. The only thing keeping them reasonably afloat with the current string of box office flops that will be extended by quite a bit when Indy 5 comes out is the $319+ and still rising box office win on Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3, and the extremely-disappointing-yet-still-barely-financial-win of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's $63+ Million. (More on that in the next post)



--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Wednesday, June 28, 2023 10:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Disney Might Have Lost Almost $900 Million at the Box Office in the Past Year

https://www.disneyfanatic.com/disney-lost-900-million-box-office-pk1/




From The Little Mermaid Failure thread on 06/26/2023:

Quote:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The Little Mermaid will gross $500 Million Worldwide after Monday's numbers come in.

True to my word, I will put it in the "winners" category based off the twice the production budget rule of thumb, but the investors at Disney know the true numbers that were behind this and I suspect that we're going to see a huge ramp-down of live-action Disney remakes after this one failed to get even close to $1 Billion like its predecessors did while being the 2nd most expensive live-action remake in history for the company.

In any event, unless I find out any undeniable information about the non-Production Budget financials being more than usually spent to promote this film, any small amount of money TLM makes going forward will be subtracting from Disney's gaping money pit of 2023.


OH... and all that being said, I'd really appreciate it if YouTubers and movie review sites were to back up their claims that a movie now needs to make 2.5 to 3 times the production budget to break even. Especially given the rise in costs of EVERYTHING during the Biden* Administration, I'm not going to argue that this isn't true, but somebody needs to bring some real receipts to the table proving this when it's been generally accepted for years that a movie had to double its production budget to break even. As I stated several times in these failure threads, I will not move the goalposts on this just to make the numbers look more in line than what I want to see, and I feel that this is happening more and more often as the year drags on with zero concrete evidence available to back up those claims.





We're going back quite a bit into 2022 to get that figure of $900 Million lost for Disney, and that includes some movies that did well such as Wakanda Forever. This article was also posted on a pro-Disney site.

I will be analyzing that video and seeing if he comes up with any proof of that number that would be worth re-figuring the Rule of Thumb.

Though not linked in the article, this is the video that they were referring to for you to view yourself.



--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Wednesday, June 28, 2023 10:53 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So far, I have not been able to find any firm confirmation from Deadline about these "distributor rental" costs in the US/International/China that was referred to in this video. According to Wikipedia, the production company takes 43% on average in current times but is quick to point out that this can vary "widely" on a per-movie basis.

I will look deeper into this when I have time to look. With no concrete evidence to the contrary, I think I'll just continue to use the rule of thumb as the year plays out, and if by the end of the year I'm satisfied that these claims are warranted, I will also use this alternate method to put the data together and leave both figures here for comparison when all the 2023 movies are finished with their box office run.



Two interesting things to note from the video...

1. I was curious as to why Avatar 2 wasn't included in his the list of movies. It appears that Disney got the distribution rights for A2 with the FOX deal, but the ownership and creation of A2 was still in the hands of James Cameron's Lightstorm Entertainment which is getting the lion's share of the movie's profits.

2. Disney used to make tons of money licensing out its Marvel (and other) properties to other streaming services like Netflix, but now it doesn't make any money keeping it all on their own streaming service that has been reported by many news outlets to have been losing billions of dollars over the years.

--------------------------------------------------

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Monday, July 3, 2023 4:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Stats for 06/26

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 06/26/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $824,012,726 (330% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$324,012,726 Million






Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $499,220,837 (199.69% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$779,163


The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $56,321,938 (161% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$13,678,062

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $121,096,376 (61% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$278,903,624


Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $295,000,000
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD



YET TO BE RELEASED:

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]






TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$75,712,820 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)


I may put TV shows in here at some point too, but it would probably be next to impossible to gauge how much money they lose on them, so if I do it's probably just to post the terrible audience scores they get.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Monday, July 3, 2023 4:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 (As of 07/03): -$446,849,396 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



NOTE: True to my word, I did put The Little Mermaid in the Winner's category now that it's made $24 Million more than double its production budget. It will remain there unless we find out more about how much it cost and/or The Rule of Thumb has been proven to have changed to more than double the PD under Bidenflation.

$24 Million now, and this week it will be making under $1 Million per day. That's nothing to celebrate for Disney who expected this to be another easy $1 to $1.5 Billion in box office receipts.

Child Rapist Zelensky pissed $24 Million worth of US Taxpayer funded cocaine out of his system quicker than The Little Mermaid made it.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Monday, July 3, 2023 6:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 (As of 07/03): -$446,849,396 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



NOTE: True to my word, I did put The Little Mermaid in the Winner's category now that it's made $24 Million more than double its production budget. It will remain there unless we find out more about how much it cost and/or The Rule of Thumb has been proven to have changed to more than double the PD under Bidenflation.

$24 Million now, and this week it will be making under $1 Million per day. That's nothing to celebrate for Disney who expected this to be another easy $1 to $1.5 Billion in box office receipts.

Child Rapist Zelensky pissed $24 Million worth of US Taxpayer funded cocaine out of his system quicker than The Little Mermaid made it.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

2 Woke Disasters combining for a Perfect Storm.

Bidenflation multiplied by Disney Wokism.
The "production budget" for TLM was in the Dollars for those years of production. But now Bidenflation has whittled away any possible profits. That budget in today's Bidenflation Dollars means much more Box Office is needed to capture a profit.
What year did production start? Was it greenlit?

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Monday, July 3, 2023 7:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


It seems weird that Disney bought Lucasfilm because of the Merch sales from enjoyable films, but then thought that if they destroyed the franchises that moviegoers enjoyed, somehow the Merch sales would not suffer.

Guess it is just another Delusional Wokeism concept.

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Tuesday, July 4, 2023 9:49 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 (As of 07/03): -$446,849,396 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



NOTE: True to my word, I did put The Little Mermaid in the Winner's category now that it's made $24 Million more than double its production budget. It will remain there unless we find out more about how much it cost and/or The Rule of Thumb has been proven to have changed to more than double the PD under Bidenflation.

$24 Million now, and this week it will be making under $1 Million per day. That's nothing to celebrate for Disney who expected this to be another easy $1 to $1.5 Billion in box office receipts.

Child Rapist Zelensky pissed $24 Million worth of US Taxpayer funded cocaine out of his system quicker than The Little Mermaid made it.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

2 Woke Disasters combining for a Perfect Storm.

Bidenflation multiplied by Disney Wokism.



Well... Right. I've been saying for a very long time that once the economy stalls and the cheap money isn't out there anymore that woke would kill Hollywood, at least in its current form. The double edged sword to that is people also have a lot less disposable income than they did 3 years ago, so they're thinking really long and hard before spending it on the woke trash. You can see that crushing streaming service numbers now as well. I would FULLY expect to start hearing about many of the streaming services laying off people, merging with other services or just straight up calling it quits over the next few years too. When Netflix was the only game in town, it was able to pay high prices to rent the streaming rights for big shows, and the companies who owned those properties made a lot of money for sitting back and doing nothing. In current year, Netflix has nothing but garbage that nobody wants to see and those companies aren't making millions and millions of dollars licensing out those rights anymore.

Quote:

The "production budget" for TLM was in the Dollars for those years of production. But now Bidenflation has whittled away any possible profits. That budget in today's Bidenflation Dollars means much more Box Office is needed to capture a profit.
What year did production start? Was it greenlit?



Good point.

Filming was supposed to start in April of 2020, but because of Covid it didn't start until early 2021 and finished in July of 2021. Remember, July of 2021 when the White House tweeted that the average 4th of July barbacue was .16 cents cheaper than the previous year? So yeah... This film was finished before Bidenflation crept in and was greenlit way before then.

But it would still be hard to quantify this loss because the studios hide so many of the numbers from the public and the shareholders. Also, it would be illegitimate for me to pick and choose when I'd use the rule of thumb on some movies, and apply different rules to other movies, especially in the context of a thread like this. (One reason being that some movies aren't marketed heavily when the studio knows they've got a bomb on their hands... like they probably did with Elemental... so however I treat one movie I have to treat all of them, and honestly I don't want to be spending hours per day chasing rabbits down the rabbit holes). What I'd really need to find is undeniable proof that the rule of thumb has changed and that, on average, a film needs to make 2.5 or even 3 times what the production budget was to be considered profitable.

I keep hearing people, especially on YouTube, say that this is the case now, when for years everybody only said 2 times. Not only that, but they say the 2.5 or 3 times numbers without ever even pointing out that they used to say 2 times.

It might be true, but I need proof that it is true if I'm going to change the way I calculate the winners and losers.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Tuesday, July 4, 2023 9:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
It seems weird that Disney bought Lucasfilm because of the Merch sales from enjoyable films, but then thought that if they destroyed the franchises that moviegoers enjoyed, somehow the Merch sales would not suffer.

Guess it is just another Delusional Wokeism concept.



They'd probably be doing alright with the merch sales on most of their movies still if it weren't for the OTHER huge problem with how Disney approached the handling of the merchandising...

Their DEI team put out a clear mandate that all characters were to have the same amount of action figures produced. That means for every Iron Man, Spider-Man, Darth Vader and Yoda figure there had to be an Ironheart, Icarus, Rose Tico and Shuri figure made too.

This is why you can go to any Ollies and see pallets worth of boxes of these toys rotting on the shelves at half price with nobody buying them still. You can even see 4 year old toys on the shelves of WalMart and Target too, I'm assuming because Ollies finally figured out they got duped into buying manure and they now refuse to take any more off their hands just to clog up their shelves with stuff nobody is ever going to buy.


This is just one of the many reasons that all of the big corps have recently fired their "DEI Officers" after Disney fired theirs.




ARTICLES:

February 7th, 2023

Hamstrung by ‘golden handcuffs’: Diversity roles disappear 3 years after George Floyd's murder inspired them
The wave of change in workplaces through diversity, equity and inclusion roles has quelled, and Black workers will feel the brunt of the officers' absence.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/diversity-roles-disappear-three-ye
ars-george-floyd-protests-inspired-rcna72026



February 22nd, 2023

Diversity, equity and inclusion jobs slashed at higher rate than others in recent layoffs
Corporations are trimming DEI roles according to a recent study

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/diversity-equity-inclusion-jobs-sl
ashed-higher-rate-recent-layoffs



March 9th, 2023

Corporate Diversity Pledges Fizzle Amid Layoffs, GOP Backlash

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/corporate-diversity-p
ledges-fizzle-amid-layoffs-gop-backlash



March 15th, 2023

Why Are DEI Roles Disappearing?

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/behavioral-competenci
es/global-and-cultural-effectiveness/pages/why-are-dei-roles-disappearing-.aspx



May 19th, 2023

Layoffs are hitting HR and DEI teams at a disproportionately high rate. Here’s why companies need generalists to thrive

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/everybody-loves-hate-hr-most-113121633.
html



June 20th, 2023

Disney’s Chief Diversity Officer Latondra Newton Departs

The executive, who joined the studio in 2017 from Toyota, is said to be leaving to "pursue other endeavors."

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-chief-
diversity-officer-latondra-newton-exit-1235520318
/


June 28th, 2023

Netflix’s Head of Inclusion Strategy Verna Myers to Leave, Wade Davis Tapped as Replacement

Myers was the first to hold the position but will stay involved in an advising position

https://www.thewrap.com/verna-myers-steps-down-netflix/


June 30th, 2023

Warner Bros. Discovery Ousts Top Diversity Exec Karen Horne

She is the latest senior executive laid off as the studio conducts massive restructuring

https://www.thewrap.com/warner-bros-discovery-ousts-diversity-exec-kar
en-horne
/


June 30th, 2023

Warner Bros. Discovery North America DEI Executive Karen Horne Exits

https://deadline.com/2023/06/warner-bros-discovery-dei-diversity-karen
-horne-1235428411
/


June 30th, 2023

Movie Academy’s EVP Impact & Inclusion Jeanell English Exiting After One Year In Newly Created Post

https://deadline.com/2023/06/movie-academy-top-diversity-executive-exi
ting-1235428529
/


June 30th, 2023

‘Diversity Fatigue’? Hollywood Loses 4 DEI Leaders in Less Than 2 Weeks

https://www.thewrap.com/hollywood-loses-4-diversity-dei-leaders/



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, July 7, 2023 11:29 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Disney stock downgraded over streaming, theme park growth fears

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/disney-stock-downgraded-streaming-
theme-park-growth-fears



Disney World Is Losing Its Primary Audience, Reports Say

https://insidethemagic.net/2023/06/disney-world-is-losing-its-primary-
audience-reports-say-zg1
/



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, July 7, 2023 3:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I keep seeing and hearing ads for Disney Resorts 25% discount.

Isn't July a month for Disney to be booked? Don't folk vacation during July anymore? Or is this normally a slow time for Walt Gayness?

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Monday, July 10, 2023 11:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Stats for 07/03

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 07/03/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $827,959,013 (331% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$327,959,013 Million

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $524,041,145 (210% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$24,041,145




Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $59,686,514 (171% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$10,313,486

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $187,607,297 (94% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$212,392,703

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$469,778,668



TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$446,849,396 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



YET TO BE RELEASED:

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



I may put TV shows in here at some point too, but it would probably be next to impossible to gauge how much money they lose on them, so if I do it's probably just to post the terrible audience scores they get.



--------------------------------------------------

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Wednesday, July 12, 2023 11:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You guys hear there's rumors that Apple is going to buy Disney in the next 3 years?

I don't believe it. I think that somebody at Disney is putting that out there to try and drive the stock price back up.



--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023 9:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I just posted this in The Little Mermaid failure thread, but since that thread is about to drop into relative obscurity soon, I felt it should go here too.

Filed under Production Budget Rule of Thumb / Virtue Signalling / Lying by Omission


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The Little Mermaid will gross $500 Million Worldwide after Monday's numbers come in.

True to my word, I will put it in the "winners" category based off the twice the production budget rule of thumb, but the investors at Disney know the true numbers that were behind this and I suspect that we're going to see a huge ramp-down of live-action Disney remakes after this one failed to get even close to $1 Billion like its predecessors did while being the 2nd most expensive live-action remake in history for the company.

In any event, unless I find out any undeniable information about the non-Production Budget financials being more than usually spent to promote this film, any small amount of money TLM makes going forward will be subtracting from Disney's gaping money pit of 2023.


OH... and all that being said, I'd really appreciate it if YouTubers and movie review sites were to back up their claims that a movie now needs to make 2.5 to 3 times the production budget to break even. Especially given the rise in costs of EVERYTHING during the Biden* Administration, I'm not going to argue that this isn't true, but somebody needs to bring some real receipts to the table proving this when it's been generally accepted for years that a movie had to double its production budget to break even. As I stated several times in these failure threads, I will not move the goalposts on this just to make the numbers look more in line than what I want to see, and I feel that this is happening more and more often as the year drags on with zero concrete evidence available to back up those claims.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.





Thanks to Jaynez for posting this article from Disney ass-lickers, Variety.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/disney-box-office-failures-indiana-
jones-elemental-ant-man-1235660409
/

I still need more evidence, but if Variety is willing to actually admit the following line in an article about Disney's problems this year, there may be some merit to the idea that the rule of thumb has changed:

Quote:

For the past decade, Disney has been the Teflon movie studio, remarkably adept at withstanding the tectonic changes impacting the film industry, and well fortified by its arsenal of key properties such as Marvel, Lucasfilm and Pixar.

But this year, the long-reigning titan of the box office has shown cracks as four of its biggest releases from those brands and others have struggled in theaters. There was the dispiriting release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run; “The Little Mermaid,” a remake of the 1989 animated classic that fell drastically short of expectations; “Elemental,” an original story that tried and failed to recapture Pixar’s magic; and most recently “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” a nearly $300 million investment in one of cinemas’ most venerable franchises, which no longer appears to have the same hold on today’s audiences. On paper, these films seemed like they had all of the makings of huge hits, but somehow the Disney sparkle was lacking this time, in terms of filling movie theater seats.



Focus now on the part I underlined about Ant-Man and the Wasp and how it is "likely to lose tens of millions in its theatrical run.

Oh, honey... You didn't just admit that out loud, did you?

Though it's a weak win, I currently have Quantumania on the list of winners in my 2023 Disney Failure thread here:

Quote:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]



The rule of thumb dictates that any money made above 200% of the production budget is profit. Quantumania was 232% above Production Budget for a Gross Profit of $63,635,303.00 for Disney.


But you're saying that Disney is likely to lose tens of millions of dollars on this film? Do tell? There's only one possible way that this is the case then, and that would be that studios now need to make more than 200% of the production budget to break even in 2023. That's the bitch about math, you see. The math doesn't lie. So if you're going to stop lying, even if on accident, than that rule is going to apply to everything else mathematically.


Let's revisit The Little Mermaid's numbers now, shall we?


Quote:

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $542,328,651 (217% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$42,328,651



The Little Mermaid cost $50 Million more to produce than Quantumania did. Not that I'm going to factor in any different marketing budget numbers specifically on any one movie because I said that wouldn't be fair and would likely be impossible to do anyhow, I'm just going to point out that everybody knows that TLM was marketed heavier than any other Disney movie this year too, with stunts like paying the Oscars $10 Million for an ill-received advertisement on stage... so nobody can try to protect this movie by saying that what it spent on Production Budget it saved on Marketing Budget.

Currently, or at least as of Sunday Night, TLM's theater take is only 217% that of the Production budget. A full 15% less than that of Quantumania's final box office take. And TLM has run out of steam, having grossed just barely over $1 Million per day last weekend, and just above $600k per week day.

TLM will NEVER reach 232% of the $250 Million Production Budget.


So if Quantumania is a loser by several tens of millions, TLM is a loser by SEVERAL MORE tens of millions for Disney in 2023.


I bet Variety didn't mean to admit to that one.

See how they singled out Quantumania, which is easy to do because even though its male lead role is beat out by all of the Mary Sue supporting cast surrounding him, they were all white people?

They'd NEVER dare say the same thing about black not-Ariel...

But the did just that, didn't they?

OPPS!



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Thursday, July 13, 2023 10:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So... At least according to Variety's accidental admission to the truth, what percentage of a movie's production budget would a film need to make at the box office to break even?

With limited data and a generic line stating Quantumania was "a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run" despite it making 232% of its production budget and a current "win" of over $63.6 Million with the 2x Rule of Thumb, I would guess that Variety is now saying that the Rule of Thumb is now 2.5x the Production Budget.

At 2.5x Production Budget to break even, Quantumania fell short of the break even point by $36.4 Million.

This IS "tens of millions".

At 2.4x Production Budget to break even, Quantumania fell short of the break even point by only $16.4 Million.

This IS NOT "tens of millions".


2.5x Production Budget just claimed by Variety.com confirmed.


It's still not enough for me to change the Rule of Thumb and the way I'm calculating the numbers here because Variety is a shit-rag that makes mistakes and lies all the time about everything, but I will now state for a fact that counting the old 2.0x Rule of Thumb is highly suspect if an outlet like Variety is going to come out and accidentally make the claim that the Rule of Thumb is now 2.5x the Production Budget when it had absolutely no reason to do so.




ALSO:

Quote:

The Little Mermaid cost $50 Million more to produce than Quantumania did. Not that I'm going to factor in any different marketing budget numbers specifically on any one movie because I said that wouldn't be fair and would likely be impossible to do anyhow, I'm just going to point out that everybody knows that TLM was marketed heavier than any other Disney movie this year too, with stunts like paying the Oscars $10 Million for an ill-received advertisement on stage... so nobody can try to protect this movie by saying that what it spent on Production Budget it saved on Marketing Budget.

Currently, or at least as of Sunday Night, TLM's theater take is only 217% that of the Production budget. A full 15% less than that of Quantumania's final box office take. And TLM has run out of steam, having grossed just barely over $1 Million per day last weekend, and just above $600k per week day.

TLM will NEVER reach 232% of the $250 Million Production Budget.



So if Quantumania is a loser by several tens of millions, TLM is a loser by SEVERAL MORE tens of millions for Disney in 2023.


I bet Variety didn't mean to admit to that one.



So according to Variety's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it just admitted to, TLM will have to make
$625 Million to break even for Disney. It's sitting at $543,320,173 as of Wednesday morning.







If anybody here can find any similar articles or any concrete evidence that a movie now needs to gross more than 2 times the Production Budget to break even, please post the links to the articles and data here.


Stay tuned. The 2023 Disney Failure might end up being a lot worse than we thought it was going to be.

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Friday, July 14, 2023 5:26 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Ruh Roh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/disney-ceo-iger-opens-door-to-unloadin
g-tv-assets.html


Chinks in the armor...

Little Bobby Iger is considering selling ownership in some of the TV networks that Disney owns.

He's also pretending like Disney's problems all started when he left the CEO position and acts surprised to find out they exist now that they came back after replacing the other Bob that he hand picked to take his job.

Don't let Bobby Iger fool you. He's the genesis of Disney's problems. He's not a fool though. I think that he only left so he could come back and pin the blame of all of his failures on somebody else. He must have really hated Chapek.



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Wednesday, July 19, 2023 11:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Stats for 07/10

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 07/10/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $839,718,180 (336% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$339,718,180

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $542,328,651 (217% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$42,328,651

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $81,186,450 (231% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$6,186,450

I don't know what happened with this one. It made less than $1.5 Million in the US this week, but all of the sudden it jumped from a $10 Million + loser to a $6 Million + winner in the span of a week. I'll chalk that up to very late international reporting on the numbers for now.


Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $252,324,302 (126% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$147,675,698

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $248,826,405 (83% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$248,826,405



TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$114,633,519 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



YET TO BE RELEASED:

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



I may put TV shows in here at some point too, but it would probably be next to impossible to gauge how much money they lose on them, so if I do it's probably just to post the terrible audience scores they get.



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Wednesday, July 19, 2023 11:29 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Stats for 07/18

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 07/18/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $839,050,733 (336% of Production Budget)

This one somehow lost about $700,000 in the last 8 days (07/11-07/18), despite making about a million in the US Box Office in that time. Though I haven't seen this before, I've rarely ever been looking at so many figures for so many movies at once for all these lists. Without any explanation, I'm going to assume that something in the international counts were off and corrected.

Net Gain/Loss: +$339,050,733

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $547,112,313 (219% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$47,112,313

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $82,351,069 (234% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$7,351,069

I don't know what happened with this one. It made less than $1.5 Million in the US on the weekend ending 7/09, but all of the sudden it jumped from a $10 Million + loser to a $6 Million + winner in the span of that week. I'll chalk that up to very late international reporting on the numbers for now.


Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $313,340,646 (157% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$86,659,354

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $303,945,448 (101% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$296,054,552

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: $8,000,000
source: https://www.joblo.com/reviewsynecdoche-new-york/page/204/?year&fir
st_letter=G&sortby=oldest&rating=6

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $301,220 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $333,510 (4% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$15,666,490



TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$111,230,978 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)



YET TO BE RELEASED:

Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



I may put TV shows in here at some point too, but it would probably be next to impossible to gauge how much money they lose on them, so if I do it's probably just to post the terrible audience scores they get.

EDITED TO ADD (07/19/2023): It has been reported that the 6 episodes of Secret Invasion cost $212 Million to make, or $35.3 Million per episode. That's quite expensive considering that almost every scene is just 2 or 3 characters sitting inside a room talking to each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
/

It has also been reported that Disney will lose another $800,000,000+ this quarter on Disney+. This brings the entire loss on their streaming service to over $4 Billion since it was launched.

https://dlnewstoday.com/2023/07/breaking-ceo-bob-iger-considering-sell
ing-streaming-services-and-other-assets-may-even-try-to-sell-entire-disney-company
/





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Sunday, July 30, 2023 1:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I think Haunted Mansion is in trouble.

I hadn't heard anything about the leadup to this movie which I thought might be a good thing for a change for Disney.

However, with a $157,750,000 Budget, and only $33,200,000 projected 1st weekend box office worldwide, it will have only made back 21% of the production budget on its first weekend if those numbers hold true, which would put it at #30 on the list of Budget vs. first weekend world wide box office, right in between 65 and Magic Mike's Last Dance which were both huge failures and ended with only 124% of their production budget by the end of their run. And both of those movies only had a $45 Million budget to try to double to recoup their money while Haunted Mansion is going to need to rake in $315,500,000 to break even, or roughly 9 times as much as it just did on opening weekend.

Anybody know why this one is flopping? It's only been on my radar at all because it was one of the last few big budget movies Disney was putting out in 2023, but I've honestly heard not one thing about it and haven't bothered looking into it at all.

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Sunday, July 30, 2023 1:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Anybody know why this one is flopping? It's only been on my radar at all because it was one of the last few big budget movies Disney was putting out in 2023, but I've honestly heard not one thing about it and haven't bothered looking into it at all.



Haunted Mansion…Dead On Arrival

https://www.disneydining.com/haunted-mansion-dead-on-arrival-sw1/

Quote:

The new Haunted Mansion (2023) movie may become another flop from The Walt Disney Company. Although it hasn’t spawned the level of controversy associated with other films in the past 12 months, such as Lightyear (2022), Strange World (2022), or The Little Mermaid (2023), it will likely follow in the footsteps of a long life of recent box office failures.

A Year of Flops

In addition to the titles above, additional box office bombs include Elemental (2023), Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (2023), and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023). As long as audiences choose to avoid seeing Disney movies in the theaters, the studio will continue hemorrhaging money

It was reported earlier this year that in the past 12 months, the Walt Disney Company was estimated to have lost almost $1 billion in box office flops. And that figure was before the release of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023), which in the end could lose another couple hundred million.

Walt Disney Pictures hoped the Haunted Mansion (2023) would be a chance to turn things around. After all, it’s not a controversial live action remake, and it’s a movie based on a popular theme park ride at Disneyland (and the Magic Kingdom at Disney World). But its expected box office numbers for this weekend are $25-$30 million domestically. For comparison, Avengers: Endgame (2019) made $357 million on its opening weekend. Granted, that’s an established franchise, but those numbers are from four years ago. But when compared to The Haunted Mansion (2003) with Eddie Murphy, the opening box office is about the same ($24.3 million).

Even though $30 million (at best) is still a nice chunk of change, it’s not a win when the movie allegedly cost the studio $150 million to produce. That figure also includes no marketing or promotional costs, which could easily be another $50-$100 million. Again, Disney seems to find itself where the costs of producing its movies ends up setting a bar too high for the box office. This was the problem with The Little Mermaid (2023), Lightyear (2022), and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023).





‘Haunted Mansion’ Slammed, Disney Faces Yet Another Flop

https://insidethemagic.net/2023/07/haunted-mansion-slammed-disney-face
s-yet-another-flop-cj1
/



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Sunday, July 30, 2023 1:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Regarding this part of the disneydining.com article...

Quote:

Haunted Mansion…Dead On Arrival

https://www.disneydining.com/haunted-mansion-dead-on-arrival-sw1/

Walt Disney Pictures hoped the Haunted Mansion (2023) would be a chance to turn things around. After all, it’s not a controversial live action remake, and it’s a movie based on a popular theme park ride at Disneyland (and the Magic Kingdom at Disney World). But its expected box office numbers for this weekend are $25-$30 million domestically. For comparison, Avengers: Endgame (2019) made $357 million on its opening weekend. Granted, that’s an established franchise, but those numbers are from four years ago. But when compared to The Haunted Mansion (2003) with Eddie Murphy, the opening box office is about the same ($24.3 million).



https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-The-(2003)#tab=box-o
ffice


They were only including the 3-day weekend with that $24.3 Million figure. (And they were incorrect even then, since it made $23,970,263 in those 3 days). It appears that the 2003 Haunted Mansion opened with a 5-day weekend and generated $34,046,111 in 5 days. According to projections for this weekend which are $24,200,000, if you only count Friday through Sunday for the 2003 version, this new one only grossed around $230k more than the version released 20 years ago and only had a $90 Million budget.

I'm curious why Disney even made this movie. Assuming the Rule of Thumb was 2x back in 2003, that movie was also a failure with only a $156 Million worldwide gross on a $90 Million budget (or 173% of the Production Budget).

I don't see this version making 173% before it's out of theaters.

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Monday, July 31, 2023 3:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Elemental looks like it will be just about a wash when it's done, at least according to the 2x Rule of Thumb, anyhow. I'm not sure how this movie pulled it off in the end with its terrible first weekend box office, but apparently it had some staying power, especially overseas. It only made about $7-$8 Million in the US this week, but it gained just around $50 Million worldwide since I put the last list up (probably not that much in one week, because international numbers are updated quite sporadically).

In the end this won't help with Indy 5 really dragging Disney down and Haunted Mansion putting up such crap numbers opening weekend.

Disney has two real movies coming out for the rest of the year. The Marvels and Wish. I don't imagine The Marvels is going to do any better than The Little Mermaid, Antman or Elemental did, so whether or not Disney ends 2023 with a profit using the 2x Rule of Thumb is probably going to depend solely on how well Wish does in the theaters.

And with the writers and actors all on strike, they'd better hope that it doesn't need any anti-woke reshoots.

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Monday, July 31, 2023 6:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Bruce Wokenash seems to be flommoxed by the Walt Gayness products being shunned by the normal, non-pedophile/groomer American public.
Maybe he really does believe that the vast majority of Americans are pedophiles and groomers, and should therefore support Walt Gayness products.

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Monday, July 31, 2023 10:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Status from 07/24

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 07/24/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $837,895,825 (335% of Production Budget)

Weird... After losing about $700,000,000 in the previous 8 days (07/11-07/18), despite making about a million in the US Box Office in that time, Guardian's 3 worldwide total went down again this weekend from $839,050,733 to $837,895,825. I have no explanation for this, although I did notice it happened to a few other films this week such as Fast X when making the 2023 top lists in the Sound of Freedom thread. Without any explanation, I'm going to assume that something in the international counts were off and corrected.

Net Gain/Loss: +$337,895,825

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $548,481,661 (219% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$48,481,661

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $82,344,950 (234% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$7,344,950

I don't know what happened with this one. It made less than $1.5 Million in the US on the weekend ending 7/09, but all of the sudden it jumped from a $10 Million + loser to a $6 Million + winner in the span of that week. I'll chalk that up to very late international reporting on the numbers for now.

UPDATE 07/24: This one went down several thousand this week with no explanation from $82,351,069 to $82,344,950. Since this seems to be a trend now that I'm really paying attention to numbers on a broad range of films I'm going to begin assuming that the international figures are just estimates, similar to the estimates that we get for domestic numbers, but it just takes a lot longer for them to be finalized.



Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $355,566,374 (178% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$44,433,626

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $334,636,623 (112% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$265,363,377

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: $8,000,000
source: https://www.joblo.com/reviewsynecdoche-new-york/page/204/?year&fir
st_letter=G&sortby=oldest&rating=6

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $301,220 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $687,468 (9% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$15,312,532



TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$37,751,796 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)

NOTE (07/24): It looks as though Disney might end up running a profit for 2023 despite their terrible woke decisions. Next week would see a slight profit if it weren't for the fact that Haunted Mansion is coming out with its now reported $157+ Million Production Budget needing at least $314 Million worldwide to break even. Since I haven't heard anything good or bad about this one, who knows how it will do, but I doubt we're going to see a Barbie repeat on this one, so breaking even in 1 weekend on this is not likely in the cards.

Disney owes this to the surprise performance of Elemental after its first awful week in theaters. It still hasn't broken even, but sitting at 178% of the Production Budget this far out when it only grossed 24% of its Production Budget Worldwide after opening weekend is impressive. It probably won't do much better than breaking even in the end, but since it won't be the expected massive black hole that was expected on Disney's 2023 books, it may just be what Disney needed not to be completely embarrassed by actually losing money in the Box Office for 2023.

Still though, Disney DOES want to make money, and after years of having Billion dollar hit after Billion dollar hit to have a year where they're just going to make a little bit of money is not good.


There's always the possibility that Variety was right and Antman did lose tens of millions of dollars for Disney, which would mean that the Rule of Thumb increased to 2.5 from 2.0 in Biden*world, and then Disney is hurting a lot more than I'm presenting here. Only they will know for sure. I wouldn't want to own Disney stock right now though.



YET TO BE RELEASED:

Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



I may put TV shows in here at some point too, but it would probably be next to impossible to gauge how much money they lose on them, so if I do it's probably just to post the terrible audience scores they get.

EDITED TO ADD (07/19/2023): It has been reported that the 6 episodes of Secret Invasion cost $212 Million to make, or $35.3 Million per episode. That's quite expensive considering that almost every scene is just 2 or 3 characters sitting inside a room talking to each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
/

It has also been reported that Disney will lose another $800,000,000+ this quarter on Disney+. This brings the entire loss on their streaming service to over $4 Billion since it was launched.

https://dlnewstoday.com/2023/07/breaking-ceo-bob-iger-considering-sell
ing-streaming-services-and-other-assets-may-even-try-to-sell-entire-disney-company
/




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Tuesday, August 1, 2023 12:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It just occurred to me that people might not be reading this thread right. As the weekend numbers come in, I update the original post after copying the previous week's OP at the end of the thread (This is usually sometime late-evening Monday or early-morning Tuesday). This isn't how I'm doing the other 3 lists encompassing the top US produced movies in the Top 50 Worldwide, so I thought I should point that out.


Under the 2x Rule of Thumb model which appears could be an outdated model, with evidence from Variety.com articles that I've presented in this thread, Disney would have been set to finally show a modest profit of around $33 Million this past weekend for 2023 had it not been for the fact that the nearly $160 Million Budget reboot of Haunted Mansion came out and only made 21% of its budget over the weekend.

There were two reasons for this. The first reason is Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3, the only successful Marvel property released this year, has been carrying the studio limping to the finish line, it has been able to erase nearly $340 Million of the losses that various other films have created. That is over now though. Not only did it make only around $100k domestic in the last 7 days, but over the last 3 weeks the official worldwide number has lost nearly $2.5 Million, with losses of roughly $700k, $1.1 M, and $500k in that time. This has to be due from miscalculating and/or misreporting international numbers and rectifying that after the fact. But bottom line is that Guardians will help Disney no more. Not in 2023. Not beyond 2023. Guardians is over.

The second reason is the surprise longevity and back-end performance of Elemental. For a movie with a $200M budget and a $400M rule of thumb goal, it wasn't looking good after the first weekend when it only managed to pull in 22% of its production budget worldwide. It didn't quite break even this weekend, but there is zero doubt that it will now that it's sitting at 197% and still looking reasonably strong for a movie that has been out this long.

Moderate "wins" for Disney like Antman's final $63+ million profit, or The Little Mermaid's almost final $60+ million profit are not helpful for a company that loves putting out massive budget flicks and hasn't managed to put out a single one that came close to pulling in a Billion at the box office this year to offset movies like Indy 5 that are nearing the end of their theater run while they just pulled in only $7.5 Million last week in the domestic box office and are still nearly $250 Million in the hole... or Peter Pan and Wendy which cost $170 Million to make and lost all of that money plus marketing costs when they made the decision to release it on their streaming platform that is already reportedly losing $800 Million in the last quarter alone.

With the current box office updated to Sunday, July 30th, current losses for Disney with the 2x Rule of thumb are -$282,417,525.

And all of this assumes that the 2x Rule of Thumb model is even valid anymore in 2023. Variety.com doesn't seem to think so when they claim that Antman and the Wasp: Quantumania lost Disney tens of millions of dollars, which would suggest that the Rule of Thumb has changed to 2.5x the Production Budget.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/disney-box-office-failures-indiana-
jones-elemental-ant-man-1235660409


Quote:

. There was the dispiriting release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run


(See my in-depth analysis on this comment and the implications of it on the post in this thread I made on June 13th)


So while limping along and hoping to break even in the box office of 2023 and maybe eeking out just a little bit of profit using the 2x Rule of Thumb is bad enough, if the rule has changed to 2.5x, here's what Disney's Box Office Numbers look like as of 7/30/2023:

Peter Pan and Wendy ----------------------- ($170,000,000) [Direct to Disney+]
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: --- ($36,364,697) [$200M x 2.5 = $500M - $463,635,303]
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3.: ---------- +$212,312,951 [$250M x 2.5 = $625M - $837,312,951]
The Little Mermaid: ----------------------------- (64,989,162) [$250M x 2.5 = $625M - $560,010,838]
The Bogeyman: ---------------------------------- ($5,148,665) [$35M x 2.5 = $87.5M - $82,351,335]
Elemental: ------------------------------------- ($105,984,741) [$200M x 2.5 = $500M - $394,015,259]
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: -- ($394,008,902) [$300M x 2.5 = $750M - $355,991,098]
Theater Camp: --------------------------------- ($18,496,353) [$8M x 2.5 = $20M - $1,503,647]
Haunted Mansion: --------------------------- ($361,917,525) [$158M x 2.5 = $395M - $33,082,475]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 2023 LOSS; 2.5X RULE OF THUMB: ($944,597,094)

That is almost $1 Billion of losses in 7 months. It may not be that bad, but the truth lies somewhere between the two figures. It's certainly not any less than the 2.0x Rule of Thumb model.


This is untenable. The Message is being denied. Full Stop.


Adapt or Die, Disney. Replacing the diversity hires and millennials you hired with the right people needs to happen now while the economy is bad and they're all on strike. Hopefully with talented people... but you couldn't possibly do any worse than you are right now if you just hire a couple of people to oversee A/I writing things going forward.

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Tuesday, August 1, 2023 12:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK



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Tuesday, August 1, 2023 5:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/desantis-controlled-disney-world-district-17
5756727.html


Quote:

DeSantis-controlled Disney World district abolishes diversity, equity initiatives
The Canadian Press
Tue, August 1, 2023 at 12:57 p.m. CDT·3 min read

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Diversity, equity and inclusion programs were abolished Tuesday from Walt Disney World's governing district, now controlled by appointees of Gov. Ron DeSantis, in an echo of the Florida governor's agenda which has championed curtailing such programs in higher education and elsewhere.

The Central Florida Tourism Oversight District said in a statement that its diversity, equity and inclusion committee would be eliminated, as would any job duties connected to it. Also axed were initiatives left over from when the district was controlled by Disney supporters, which awarded contracts based on goals of achieving racial or gender parity.

Glenton Gilzean, the district's new administrator who is African American and a former head of the Central Florida Urban League, called such initiatives “illegal and simply un-American." Gilzean has been a fellow or member at two conservative institutions, the James Madison Institute and the American Enterprise Institute Leadership Network, as well as a DeSantis appointee to the Florida Commission on Ethics.

“Our district will no longer participate in any attempt to divide us by race or advance the notion that we are not created equal," Gilzean said in a statement. "As the former head of the Central Florida Urban League, a civil rights organization, I can say definitively that our community thrives only when we work together despite our differences.”

An email was sent seeking comment from Disney World.

Last spring, DeSantis, who is running for the GOP presidential nomination, signed into law a measure that blocks public colleges from using federal or state funding on diversity programs.

DeSantis also has championed Florida's so-called “Stop WOKE” law, which bars businesses, colleges and K-12 schools from giving training on certain racial concepts, such as the theory that people of a particular race are inherently racist, privileged or oppressed. A federal judge last November blocked the law’s enforcement in colleges, universities and businesses, calling it "positively dystopian.”

The creation of the district, then known as the Reedy Creek Improvement District, was instrumental in Disney’s decision to build a theme park resort near Orlando in the 1960s. Having a separate government allowed the company to provide zoning, fire protection, utilities and infrastructure services on its sprawling property. The district was controlled by Disney supporters for more than five decades.

The DeSantis appointees took control of the renamed district earlier this year following a yearlong feud between the company and DeSantis. The fight began last year after Disney, beset by significant pressure internally and externally, publicly opposed a state law banning classroom lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in early grades, a policy critics call “Don’t Say Gay.”

As punishment, DeSantis took over the district through legislation passed by Republican lawmakers and appointed a new board of supervisors to oversee municipal services for the sprawling theme parks and hotels. Disney sued DeSantis and his five board appointees in federal court, claiming the Florida governor violated the company’s free speech rights by taking the retaliatory action.

Before the new board came in, Disney made agreements with previous oversight board members who were Disney supporters that stripped the new supervisors of their authority over design and development. The DeSantis-appointed members of the governing district have sued Disney in state court in a second lawsuit stemming from the district’s takeover, seeking to invalidate those agreements.

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Monday, August 7, 2023 4:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


7/31 Numbers...

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 07/31/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629



Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $837,312,951 (335% of Production Budget)

Weird... After losing about $700,000 in the previous 8 days (07/11-07/18), despite making about a million in the US Box Office in that time, Guardian's 3 worldwide total went down again this weekend from $839,050,733 to $837,895,825. I have no explanation for this, although I did notice it happened to a few other films this week such as Fast X when making the 2023 top lists in the Sound of Freedom thread. Without any explanation, I'm going to assume that something in the international counts were off and corrected.

UPDATE 07/31: WTF Bruce? Again?

Despite making around $100k in the Domestic Box office this week, Guardians 3 went down again to $837,312,951 from $837,895,825


Net Gain/Loss: +$337,312,951

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $560,010,838 (224% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$60,010,838

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $82,351,335 (234% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: +$7,351,335

I don't know what happened with this one. It made less than $1.5 Million in the US on the weekend ending 7/09, but all of the sudden it jumped from a $10 Million + loser to a $6 Million + winner in the span of that week. I'll chalk that up to very late international reporting on the numbers for now.

UPDATE 07/24: This one went down several thousand this week with no explanation from $82,351,069 to $82,344,950. Since this seems to be a trend now that I'm really paying attention to numbers on a broad range of films I'm going to begin assuming that the international figures are just estimates, similar to the estimates that we get for domestic numbers, but it just takes a lot longer for them to be finalized.

NOTE TO SELF 07/31: Even though this one wasn't in the theater this week, it did go up several thousand from last week. I will have to put in the effort to make sure all of these numbers are correct maybe 1 or 2 months into 2024 to make sure everything was properly tallied up by the studios and I'm presenting the actual final numbers on all 4 of my lists.



Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $394,015,259 (197% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$5,984,741

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $355,991,098 (119% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$244,008,902

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: $8,000,000
source: https://www.joblo.com/reviewsynecdoche-new-york/page/204/?year&fir
st_letter=G&sortby=oldest&rating=6

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $301,220 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $1,503,647 (19% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$15,312,532

[Note 07/31: Somehow this one is getting a limited international release in Australia, Spain, Germany and the UK, so even though this movie is incidental compared to other 2023 Disney properties, there should be some help to bump these numbers up a bit.]

Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $33,082,475 (21% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $33,082,475 (21% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss: -$282,417,525


TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023: -$249,413,273 (Plus unknown marketing costs for Peter Pan & Wendy)

Quote:

NOTE (07/24): It looks as though Disney might end up running a profit for 2023 despite their terrible woke decisions. Next week would see a slight profit if it weren't for the fact that Haunted Mansion is coming out with its now reported $157+ Million Production Budget needing at least $314 Million worldwide to break even. Since I haven't heard anything good or bad about this one, who knows how it will do, but I doubt we're going to see a Barbie repeat on this one, so breaking even in 1 weekend on this is not likely in the cards.


No. It did not break even. It only made 21% worldwide for the first weekend, completely erasing the $33 or so Million gains that Disney managed to make with the other movies it still has in theaters and adding another roughly $250 Million to the current deficit.

Quote:

(07/24): Disney owes this to the surprise performance of Elemental after its first awful week in theaters. It still hasn't broken even, but sitting at 178% of the Production Budget this far out when it only grossed 24% of its Production Budget Worldwide after opening weekend is impressive. It probably won't do much better than breaking even in the end, but since it won't be the expected massive black hole that was expected on Disney's 2023 books, it may just be what Disney needed not to be completely embarrassed by actually losing money in the Box Office for 2023.


After last weeks performance, I actually expect this to do better than just break even. Either Bruce's international numbers were far behind and were applied this week, or it did great overseas. It's now up to 197% of the Production Budget from only 178% last weekend. It could end up being a moderate profit generator like The Little Mermaid (224%) or Antman (232%) by the end of its run... at least when using the 2x Rule of Thumb.

Quote:

(07/24)Still though, Disney DOES want to make money, and after years of having Billion dollar hit after Billion dollar hit to have a year where they're just going to make a little bit of money is not good.

There's always the possibility that Variety was right and Antman did lose tens of millions of dollars for Disney, which would mean that the Rule of Thumb increased to 2.5 from 2.0 in Biden*world, and then Disney is hurting a lot more than I'm presenting here. Only they will know for sure. I wouldn't want to own Disney stock right now though.



I think once all is said and done I'm going to put figures for both the 2x and the 2.5x Rule of Thumb for 2023 on this list and let you decide how Disney did since Disney isn't going to tell you.




YET TO BE RELEASED:

A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



It would be impossible to gauge how much money they lose on streaming on a show-to-show basis, but it appears I can tell you how much money the shows cost to produce and how poorly they are received.

NOTES ON STREAMING (07/19/2023): It has been reported that the 6 episodes of Secret Invasion cost $212 Million to make, or $35.3 Million per episode. That's quite expensive considering that almost every scene is just 2 or 3 characters sitting inside a room talking to each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
/

It has also been reported that Disney will lose another $800,000,000+ this quarter on Disney+. This brings the entire loss on their streaming service to over $4 Billion since it was launched.

https://dlnewstoday.com/2023/07/breaking-ceo-bob-iger-considering-sell
ing-streaming-services-and-other-assets-may-even-try-to-sell-entire-disney-company
/


NOTES ON STREAMING (07/31/2023): The 6th and final episode of Secret Invasion is now officially the lowest rated critics score for any Marvel TV Show property in history at only 7%, with one critic writing "A huge miscalculation in emphasizing brawn over brain, this finale is so misjudged that most MCU fans will want to keep it secret from their collective memory."

Way to spend $212 Million, Disney.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06/reviews?intc
mp=rt-scorecard_tomatometer-reviews









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Monday, August 7, 2023 5:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


As of 08/07/2023:

TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.0x RoT]: -$161,573,674
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.5x RoT]: -$861,948,674

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Wednesday, August 9, 2023 10:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


FINANCIAL TIMES: Bob Iger’s Disney comeback hampered by TV woes and box office flops

https://www.ft.com/content/4630ad12-6e4a-447f-9dce-ede3dc673f67?segmen
tId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9


Get fucked, Bob.

Everybody knows that YOU are the reason Disney is failing and your little Chapek stunt isn't fooling anybody.

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Thursday, August 10, 2023 10:34 AM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
FINANCIAL TIMES: Bob Iger’s Disney comeback hampered by TV woes and box office flops

https://www.ft.com/content/4630ad12-6e4a-447f-9dce-ede3dc673f67?segmen
tId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9


Get fucked, Bob.

Everybody knows that YOU are the reason Disney is failing and your little Chapek stunt isn't fooling anybody.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.



Bobby put all the wrong woke people in charge, now the Disney dollars are gone.

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Thursday, August 10, 2023 11:44 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
FINANCIAL TIMES: Bob Iger’s Disney comeback hampered by TV woes and box office flops

https://www.ft.com/content/4630ad12-6e4a-447f-9dce-ede3dc673f67?segmen
tId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9


Get fucked, Bob.

Everybody knows that YOU are the reason Disney is failing and your little Chapek stunt isn't fooling anybody.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.



Bobby put all the wrong woke people in charge, now the Disney dollars are gone.






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Thursday, August 10, 2023 5:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Aug 9, 2023 8:46am PT

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Q: Will “Elemental” be profitable?

We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now, it should do better than break even theatrically. And then we have revenue from streaming, theme parks and consumer products. This will certainly be a profitable film for the Disney company.

Q: Is there a way to make these kinds of movies at a lower price point?

That’s a constant question. One of the ways you make these films for less money, and almost all of our competitors do this, is to do work offshore. It’s only us and Disney Animation that makes animation films in the U.S. anymore with all of the artists under one roof. We feel like having a colony of artists approach has differentiated our films. We hope to find a path to make that work. “Elemental” was particularly expensive because all the characters have visual effects. We had been getting the film costs down.

The other thing I’ll say about our film budgets is that our whole company exists only to make these films. So when we say a budget, that is everything it takes to run the whole company. Sometimes, the budgets [for other films] that get reported are physical production costs and don’t include the salaries of executives and things like that. Our budgets include all of that, so there’s some accounting context that gets lost. But that doesn’t mean they’re not expensive.

Q: What’s the biggest challenge right now in getting family audiences to theaters?

It’s expensive for a family to go to the movies. It can be a $100 afternoon for a family, and that can be a stretch for some to do. The other thing is that during COVID, we trained audiences to watch our movies on Disney+. I won’t say there was a lot of choice. For periods of time, it was the only thing we could do. We have a little work to unring the bell and motivate families to go to the theater and not wait a few months to see it on Disney+.

Q: Is there an ideal window between a film opening in theaters and moving to Disney+?

Thinking back historically, a summer movie would go to pay-per-view in autumn, which gave a three- or four-month window. That would be a traditional window that I’d love to see reestablished. We make our films for the big screen. We love for people to see them with an audience.

Q: Something that has always distinguished Pixar is that parents can enjoy these movies as much as their kids. Do you ever worry that Pixar films are too smart?

We always think about those things. I’m often surprised at how astute kids are at figuring out bigger ideas. Historically, our films have dealt with more sophisticated themes. We’ve tried to make them accessible to everyone in the audience. It’s something we’re constantly working on. We make a certain kind of film that does have ideas in it. We don’t want to stop doing that. But we obviously want audiences to go to theaters for our films.

More at https://variety.com/2023/film/news/pixar-elemental-box-office-rebound-
1235691248
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, August 10, 2023 11:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now,
Quote:

it should do better than break even theatrically.
And then we have revenue from streaming, theme parks and consumer products. This will certainly be a profitable film for the Disney company.



Arguable, although I've said as much myself that this was the case back in late July if we're still going by the 2x Rule of thumb. I've commented at least twice about how impressive the late box office results were for this movie after it initially looked like it was going to be a major flop.

But Variety themselves have said that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania lost Disney tens of millions of dollars, and with the 2.0x Rule of Thumb I have it as a $60+ Million winner. It was only when I went to 2.5x Rule of Thumb that it shows tens of millions lost.

At 2.5x, Elemental needs $500 Million to break even, and as admirable as its suprise comeback was, it's still over $75 Million short of that and will never hit that while in the theaters.



As far as streaming goes, Pixar may see some money for it being on Disney+, but that would essentially just be Disney paying itself. Disney lost a GIANT source of revenue when it stopped licensing out its property for streaming on other services only to show it on their own service which is loosing hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter.

Merchandising is basically flat-lined for Disney in current year. Nobody is buying toys from any Disney properties.





Quote:

The other thing I’ll say about our film budgets is that our whole company exists only to make these films. So when we say a budget, that is everything it takes to run the whole company. Sometimes, the budgets [for other films] that get reported are physical production costs and don’t include the salaries of executives and things like that. Our budgets include all of that, so there’s some accounting context that gets lost. But that doesn’t mean they’re not expensive.


That's not an excuse. If you have a different scenario that you're operating under than other studios and you're making the claim that everybody else out there isn't doing this (I don't believe that), then you need to downsize your company. Particularly those million dollar per year plus executives who are making all the bad decisions.

Elemental, at best, breaks even here and makes a few bucks with no merchandising bumps and streaming being a losing proposition for Disney, at least for the foreseeable future.

The only way Pixar makes money in the future is to lower the budget for their movies any way possible, or gets back to making Billion Dollar movies. PR statements such as this article are a way to calm investors short-term, but without fixing the core issues it's not going to make your problems go away.


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Friday, August 11, 2023 8:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Hollywood’s greatest directors keep getting drafted to make bad franchise movies. The solution is obvious: Bring Back the Hack.

The problem here is two-pronged. The first is Hollywood’s penchant for sucking promising young directors into its maw, tempting them into selling their artistic souls to the franchise devil with medium-fat paychecks and the possibility of speaking to a larger audience. The second is that the movies frequently end up being lousy, extinguishing whatever hint of personality made the filmmaker attractive in the first place and revealing them to be hopelessly out of their depth when tasked with bending a massive studio movie to their will. You don’t get the unique stamp of an artist, but you also don’t get the frictionless craftsmanship that would be brought to the job by a seasoned old hand—in other words, a hack.

There are many ways to define a hack, but the least judgmental is that you don’t know who they are. I’d bet there are loads of fans who enjoyed The Meg and eagerly awaited the sequel but couldn’t name its director, Jon Turteltaub. Turteltaub has been making movies in Hollywood for more than three decades, and chances are you’ve even seen a few of them: While You Were Sleeping, perhaps, or one of the National Treasures. But no one has ever referred to a movie as “the new Turteltaub,” and you won’t find cinephiles sparring in Letterboxd’s comments section over whether Cool Runnings or 3 Ninjas ranks higher in his oeuvre.

Stroll down the hall from crappy Meg 2 and you might still be able to catch The Haunted Mansion, although the $150 million Disney release flopped so hard that it’s starting to vanish from theaters two weeks after it was released. Like Meg 2, it was directed by a onetime film-festival sensation: Justin Simien, who broke out at Sundance with the sharp-edged campus satire Dear White People. And like Meg 2, it’s an inert and joyless experience, the product of a filmmaker going up against the system and losing, badly. When I ducked into a showing last weekend, the audience of perhaps a dozen made their dislike audible, blowing raspberries at the attempts to inject emotional depth into a movie based on a Disneyland ride.

Many More Examples of movies where a hack would have been a perfect match for a formula film instead of a famous director at https://slate.com/culture/2023/08/meg-2-haunted-mansion-disney-marvel-
directors-hacks.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 11, 2023 11:24 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Hollywood’s greatest directors keep getting drafted to make bad franchise movies. The solution is obvious: Bring Back the Hack.

The problem here is two-pronged. The first is Hollywood’s penchant for sucking promising young directors into its maw, tempting them into selling their artistic souls to the franchise devil with medium-fat paychecks and the possibility of speaking to a larger audience. The second is that the movies frequently end up being lousy, extinguishing whatever hint of personality made the filmmaker attractive in the first place and revealing them to be hopelessly out of their depth when tasked with bending a massive studio movie to their will. You don’t get the unique stamp of an artist, but you also don’t get the frictionless craftsmanship that would be brought to the job by a seasoned old hand—in other words, a hack.

There are many ways to define a hack, but the least judgmental is that you don’t know who they are. I’d bet there are loads of fans who enjoyed The Meg and eagerly awaited the sequel but couldn’t name its director, Jon Turteltaub. Turteltaub has been making movies in Hollywood for more than three decades, and chances are you’ve even seen a few of them: While You Were Sleeping, perhaps, or one of the National Treasures. But no one has ever referred to a movie as “the new Turteltaub,” and you won’t find cinephiles sparring in Letterboxd’s comments section over whether Cool Runnings or 3 Ninjas ranks higher in his oeuvre.

Stroll down the hall from crappy Meg 2 and you might still be able to catch The Haunted Mansion, although the $150 million Disney release flopped so hard that it’s starting to vanish from theaters two weeks after it was released. Like Meg 2, it was directed by a onetime film-festival sensation: Justin Simien, who broke out at Sundance with the sharp-edged campus satire Dear White People. And like Meg 2, it’s an inert and joyless experience, the product of a filmmaker going up against the system and losing, badly. When I ducked into a showing last weekend, the audience of perhaps a dozen made their dislike audible, blowing raspberries at the attempts to inject emotional depth into a movie based on a Disneyland ride.

Many More Examples of movies where a hack would have been a perfect match for a formula film instead of a famous director at https://slate.com/culture/2023/08/meg-2-haunted-mansion-disney-marvel-
directors-hacks.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




It almost sounds like something I'd say. I guess the media is finally coming around to some of the problems here.

I don't think there are any directors out there that can do a good job on these mega-blockbuster titles anymore period though. These movies aren't art anymore. They're purely cash motivated products designed for only one thing, and that is mindless consumption. They're product by committee. Any director tied to any movie with over a $100 Million budget isn't going to have any artistic license at all because the stakes are far too high, and shareholders need to get value out of the investments.

Tie that together with Blackrock and Vanguard ESG requirements, and these soulless directors can't even properly create a product that people want to consume anymore. Superhero movies have become trite and formulaic. The same movie over and over and over again with nothing but a "diverse" skin put on top of it and different hero outfits on whatever boring, one-dimensional characters they put on screen. And with their multiverse gimmick laid on top of that, there's never any stakes anymore. The "heroes" are never actually in any danger. Even if they die, death is not permanent and they can just show back up in the next movie via some magical mcguffin which isn't even magical because it's powered by nothing more than corporate committee greed.

And the needless race and gender swaps are being outright rejected. Not just in the US but worldwide. Little Mermaid didn't need to be a movie that just barely broke even with an equivalent of Antman's profit under the 2.0x Rule of Thumb or lose almost $100 Million with 2.5x. The excitement around that movie by courting long-time fans of the original would have possibly made TLM the highest grossing film of 2023 with $1.5 Billion dollars had they hired a natural redhead actress to play the role. Instead, it got a collective eye-roll by most of what would have been the legacy audience and while ranking as the 2nd most expensive live-action Disney remake ends up very low on the Worldwide Box Office list of the remakes, and that's even after post-Covid theater prices are 30% higher than they were in 2020.


The real solution here is for the big studios to take a step back, fire the problems, reject ESG requirements and figure out a way to bring their budgets back down to earth. With the $250 Million Disney spent producing The Little Mermaid, they could have instead funded two $100 Million films, had $50 Million extra cash on hand and had much better end results.

Super Mario Bros. and Barbie both cost $100 Million to make, and collectively they've earned well over $2.5 Billion this year, with gas still left in Barbie's tank.

$2.1+ Billion in profit not only leaves you a LOT of breathing room when it comes to taking chances, but you already had another $50 Million on hand you could have used to roll the dice a couple of times and fund a few low budget FOX Searchlight flicks and give the indie directors a chance to shine without Oversight by Committee ruining any chance they had to tell an actual story.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 12:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Disney is Dying




A reiteration of everything I've ever said in this thread.

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Monday, August 14, 2023 5:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Numbers from 08/07:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.

[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 08/07/2023]

Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:

The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598

The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628

The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629

NOTE 1: I have decided to add the 2.5x Rule of Thumb and mark the existing numbers as the 2.0x Rule of Thumb that has been suggested by Variety magazine when discussing how much money Disney is losing on movies. The truth lies somewhere in the middle of both figures.

However, I will still keep any movie that grossed more than 2 times the Production Budget in the Winners category for now.

For more information on this, look earlier in the thread.


NOTE 2: For clarity and to lessen bloat, I'm going to remove any comments I've made about weird international numbers fluctuating. You're going to see weird things happen here, like movies making a lot of money one week despite almost making nothing in the domestic box office, and other weeks where they lose money with no explanation. This just seems par for the course with international numbers, and I don't feel like cataloging it anymore.

I've made a note to verify all final numbers here a few months after Disney's last 2023 movies exit the theaters in 2024 to make sure they're still accurate since movies that have been out of theaters for weeks still seem to lose and gain some money after the fact.




Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:

Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry

Box Office: $0 [FINAL]

Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]



Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697 [FINAL]

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $845,115,601 (338% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$345,115,601
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,115,601

The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $564,187,251 (226% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$64,187,251
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$60,812,749

The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $82,345,683 (235% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$12,345,683 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$5,154,317

Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $423,808,547 (212% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$23,808,547
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$76,191,453


Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $130,221,332 (43% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $368,512,517 (123% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$231,487,483
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$381,487,483

Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: $8,000,000
source: https://www.joblo.com/reviewsynecdoche-new-york/page/204/?year&fir
st_letter=G&sortby=oldest&rating=6

Worldwide Opening Weekend: $301,220 (4% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $2,458,552 (31% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$13,541,448
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$17,541,448

Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $33,082,475 (21% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $59,862,872 (38% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: -$255,637,128
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$334,512,128

TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.0x RoT]: -$161,573,674
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.5x RoT]: -$861,948,674


YET TO BE RELEASED:

A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/04/11/disneys-bill-for-
the-marvels-came-to-130-million-two-years-ago
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Next Goal Wins [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (November 17, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Wish [Walt Disney Pictures] (November 22nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.thewrap.com/flash-elemental-box-office-flops-analysis-pixa
r-dc
/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Untitled Disney Film [] (December 1st, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD

Magazine Dreams [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (December 8th, 2023)
Production Budget:
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A

Net Gain/Loss: TBD


Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]



It would be impossible to gauge how much money they lose on streaming on a show-to-show basis, but it appears I can tell you how much money the shows cost to produce and how poorly they are received.

NOTES ON STREAMING (07/19/2023): It has been reported that the 6 episodes of Secret Invasion cost $212 Million to make, or $35.3 Million per episode. That's quite expensive considering that almost every scene is just 2 or 3 characters sitting inside a room talking to each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
/

It has also been reported that Disney will lose another $800,000,000+ this quarter on Disney+. This brings the entire loss on their streaming service to over $4 Billion since it was launched.

https://dlnewstoday.com/2023/07/breaking-ceo-bob-iger-considering-sell
ing-streaming-services-and-other-assets-may-even-try-to-sell-entire-disney-company
/


NOTES ON STREAMING (07/31/2023): The 6th and final episode of Secret Invasion is now officially the lowest rated critics score for any Marvel TV Show property in history at only 7%, with one critic writing "A huge miscalculation in emphasizing brawn over brain, this finale is so misjudged that most MCU fans will want to keep it secret from their collective memory."

Way to spend $212 Million, Disney.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/secret_invasion/s01/e06/reviews?intc
mp=rt-scorecard_tomatometer-reviews



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Monday, August 14, 2023 5:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Total losses in the Box office for Disney so far in 2023:

TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.0x RoT]: -$124,992,781
TOTAL NET GAIN/LOSS FOR DISNEY 2023 [2.5x RoT]: -$825,492,781

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Monday, August 14, 2023 7:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/snow-white-actress-rachel-zegler-050410195.h
tml


Sounds like Snow White will not only replace dwarves with Woke BIPOC, but also is doing away with such non-Woke conventions as hetero romance - they are cutting out all of the scenes with Prince Charming.

How much money can this one lose?
Can they spend another year in RESHOOTS?

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Monday, August 14, 2023 11:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/snow-white-actress-rachel-zegler-050410195.h
tml


Sounds like Snow White will not only replace dwarves with Woke BIPOC, but also is doing away with such non-Woke conventions as hetero romance - they are cutting out all of the scenes with Prince Charming.

How much money can this one lose?
Can they spend another year in RESHOOTS?




They CAN'T do reshoots now. Not with the writer's strike.

I really think this one is going the way of Peter Pan & Wendy and straight to Disney+, but I'm really hoping that Disney doesn't do that to us. I want the entertainment of it being shown in the theater.

At least Hally Berrie loved The Little Mermaid when she was a kid. This man-hater absolutely hated the source material.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023 9:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


How ‘One Hundred and One Dalmatians’ Saved Disney

It was Sleeping Beauty that set the stage for the new Xerox technique. Considered a classic now, the film didn’t perform nearly as well as expected in the box office. The incredibly detailed work of art took $6 million to make, and it only made a little over $5 million, resulting in a loss of nearly one million dollars.

In its aftermath, Disney discussed shrinking the budgets for future projects and even closing down the animation studio. But, in a money-saving effort, Ken Anderson, art director for Dalmatians, the next film in the works, suggested using Xerox.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/how-one-hundred-and-one-dalm
atians-saved-disney-180977869
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, August 17, 2023 11:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Disney is DYING and EVERYBODY Sees It Now.



Looks like I'm right again. Imagine that, huh?

Even Lefty shit sites can't deny that Disney killed Marvel and Star Wars Indiana Jones, and their woke trash remakes of classics are bombed out, and they don't have a single creative person left in the company.


Where's your arguments now, Second?

You don't have any. That's where. Because there's nobody at your regular websites writing puff pieces about Disney for you to plagiarize as your own take on the issue anymore.



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Saturday, August 19, 2023 10:38 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


More bad news for Disney.

Even worse that it's coming from a pro-Disney source.

https://www.disneydining.com/disney-to-lose-billions-box-office-sw1/#:
~:text=This%20unfortunate%20trend%20for%20Walt,over%20the%20past%2015%20months
.

Here's more ammo for the Rule of Thumb going up to 2.5x.


After 1.5 years of flops...

Quote:

The list includes Lightyear (2022), Thor Love and Thunder (2022), Strange World (2022), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023), Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3 (2023), The Little Mermaid (2023), Elemental (2023), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023), and the Haunted Mansion (2023).

The cost of all ten films, including production, marketing, and distribution, is estimated to a little over $4 billion. However, the total amount the films have brought in is approximately $2.31 billion, equaling an overall loss of around $1.865 billion.




Now... I wasn't tracking 2022, so I don't have Lightyear, Love and Thunder, Strange World and Wakanda Forever on any of my lists. I do have the rest of those on it though, in addition to the so bad it went straight to Disney+ Peter Pan and Wendy, and low-budget releases like The Bogeyman and Theater Camp.

With the 2.0x Rule of Thumb, I show all Disney movies from 2023 losing $125 Million so far. With the 2.5x Rule of Thumb, those same movies have lost Disney $825 Million. I know that Lightyear and Strange world lost a LOT of money for Disney combined, but I'm pretty sure Wakanda Forever was still considered a moderate win, and Thor wasn't THAT devastating of a loss. I don't see how those 4 movies could have amounted to another BILLION in losses by themselves unless Disney Dining is either just making up numbers or they have some insider information that us plebs don't have access to.

In any event, At this point, I think we may finally have to retire the 2.0x Rule of Thumb and move up to the 2.5x Rule of Thumb.

In recent times, my numbers for Disney woes have been chronically lower than everyone else's have. When it was nobody but active Disney haters and admittedly right-wing outfits reporting those numbers it gave me great pause to move on from 2.0x, but now we've got a pro-Disney site reporting this while Variety is claiming losses for movies I had called minor winners and even other left-wing sites that used to shill for Disney are openly discussing Disney's failures.

I'm still going to finish all of my Disney and non-Disney lists for 2023 with both the 2.0x and 2.5x models, because I want to err on the side of caution and be a legitimate source for the actual truth rather than jump on any bandwagons.

It's also very possible that there is a scenario that Disney is on 2.5x and everyone else is only on the 2.0x model with rare exceptions like Barbie where WB admitted that they spent $5 Million more on marketing than they did on the production. Because up until just recently, Disney couldn't lose and they had the additional money to burn on that marketing.


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