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FTSE plunges 440pts in just 10 minutes as markets around the world
Daily Mail, UK - 6 hours ago
Japan's Nikkei closed down a massive 9.62 per cent after shedding 881 points in its worst session since Black Monday in 1987

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Originally posted by JaynezTown:
sounds like a crash is coming

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Originally posted by Anonymouse:
Several years ago I read a book which covered Brian Arthur and his controversial theory of increasing returns (a quick Google search suggests it's more mainstream now). There are a number of mistakes being made - not just in the US, but everywhere.

There is a complete misunderstanding of the economy - there seems to be an assumption that it's a linear entity. No. It's far too complex for that. Disordered at best, chaotic at worst.

If classic economic theory was correct, places like Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange would be ordered, quiet places - not the barely-contained riot we know them to be.

According to CET, monopolies don't exist; no one company can gain enough of a market share to hold one. Ahem. Xerox. Micro$oft. Sony. Need I go on? :)

If CET was correct, the economy would be predictable. I defy even the world's most advanced AI to pull that one off for more than 0.3 seconds into the future.

All agents, buying and selling, would have complete and accurate info. Buying and selling in all but the simplest markets is a guessing game. Worse, there are rumours, counter-rumours, mistakes, outright lies, and the info is never complete. Come back, SEC and the Monopolies Merger Commission, all is forgiven! :)

So why are they sticking to CET?

Answer: no-one yet has come up with a better answer. Brian Arthur once told his mentor that he was going to bring economics into the 20th Century. The mentor asked sadly, "Don't you think we should bring it into the 19th Century first?"

I am no savant. I don't know what the answers are. But one thing I figured out as far back as 1986: what is each country's National Debt about? To whom do they owe this debt? If every nation in the world got together and somehow added everything up, wouldn't they find that the debts would cancel each other out?

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“The personal, as everyone’s so fucking fond of saying, is political. So if some idiot politician, some power player, tries to execute policies that harm you or those you care about, TAKE IT PERSONALLY. Get angry. The Machinery of Justice will not serve you here - it is slow and cold, and it is theirs, hardware and soft-. Only the little people suffer at the hands of Justice; the creatures of power slide out from under with a wink and a grin. If you want justice, you will have to claw it from them. Make it PERSONAL. Do as much damage as you can. GET YOUR MESSAGE ACROSS. That way you stand a far better chance of being taken seriously next time. Of being considered dangerous. And make no mistake about this: being taken seriously, being considered dangerous marks the difference, the ONLY difference in their eyes, between players and little people. Players they will make deals with. Little people they liquidate. And time and again they cream your liquidation, your displacement, your torture and brutal execution with the ultimate insult that it’s just business, it’s politics, it’s the way of the world, it’s a tough life and that IT’S NOTHING PERSONAL. Well, fuck them. Make it personal.’

- Quellcrist Falconer
Things I Should Have Learnt by Now, Volume II

Richard Morgan, "Altered Carbon"

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Face the facts. Then act on them. It's the only mantra I know, the only doctrine I have to offer you, and it's harder than you'd think, because I swear humans seem hardwired to do anything but. Face the facts. Don't pray, don't wish, don't buy into centuries-old dogma and dead rhetoric. Don't give in to your conditioning or your visions or your fucked-up sense of... whatever. FACE THE FACTS. THEN act.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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Originally posted by Anonymouse:
Several years ago I read a book which covered Brian Arthur and his controversial theory of increasing returns (a quick Google search suggests it's more mainstream now). There are a number of mistakes being made - not just in the US, but everywhere.

There is a complete misunderstanding of the economy - there seems to be an assumption that it's a linear entity. No. It's far too complex for that. Disordered at best, chaotic at worst.

If classic economic theory was correct, places like Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange would be ordered, quiet places - not the barely-contained riot we know them to be.

According to CET, monopolies don't exist; no one company can gain enough of a market share to hold one. Ahem. Xerox. Micro$oft. Sony. Need I go on? :)

If CET was correct, the economy would be predictable. I defy even the world's most advanced AI to pull that one off for more than 0.3 seconds into the future.

All agents, buying and selling, would have complete and accurate info. Buying and selling in all but the simplest markets is a guessing game. Worse, there are rumours, counter-rumours, mistakes, outright lies, and the info is never complete. Come back, SEC and the Monopolies Merger Commission, all is forgiven! :)

So why are they sticking to CET?

Answer: no-one yet has come up with a better answer. Brian Arthur once told his mentor that he was going to bring economics into the 20th Century. The mentor asked sadly, "Don't you think we should bring it into the 19th Century first?"

I am no savant. I don't know what the answers are. But one thing I figured out as far back as 1986: what is each country's National Debt about? To whom do they owe this debt? If every nation in the world got together and somehow added everything up, wouldn't they find that the debts would cancel each other out?

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Er... no. Some nations are international debtors, some are international creditors. The USA is an international debtor.

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