The effect of Moore's Law in the 'Verse by Cazaril

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

The effect of Moore's Law in the 'Verse

POSTED BY: CAZARIL
UPDATED: Sunday, January 24, 2010 05:07
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Friday, January 22, 2010 4:34 PM

I was writing another post, and had mentioned something about computers. That got me thinking about how powerful computers will be by the time Mal and the gang are using them.

Intel Co-founder Gordon E. Moore described a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. While he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months". It has been suggested that an Intel colleague might have factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.

Although technically not what Moore said, let's use the 18 months to double performance misconception, and assume Moore was right.

That means that the computers citizens of the 'Verse will be using are going to have a performance of to the power of 338...

Throw in a version of Moore's law that states that RAM and hard-drives (Kryder's Law) do the same thing, and that's will be one tremendously powerful (and probably small) machine.

Now of course there does exist one other concept/principle to help offset all this... And that is The Great Moore's Law Compensator (TGMLC), generally referred to as bloat. Which is the principle that successive generations of computer software acquire enough bloat to offset the performance gains predicted by Moore's Law.

Can you imagine how big and unwieldy Windows 2517 will be...

Caz

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Friday, January 22, 2010 4:40 PM

BYTEMITE

Apparently all computers in the verse operate off of the cortex itself, which I guess serves as the operating system. Be like if your computer actually ran on the internet.

Probably the biggest part of the cortex screens we see is the ansibles since the network is hundreds of AU across.

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Friday, January 22, 2010 5:06 PM

CAZARIL

Quote:
Originally posted by Bytemite:
Apparently all computers in the verse operate off of the cortex itself, which I guess serves as the operating system. Be like if your computer actually ran on the internet.

Probably the biggest part of the cortex screens we see is the ansibles since the network is hundreds of AU across.

Do they!!?? I never got that impression... I always got the impression that the Cortex was the equivalent of the Internet. Local computing was done within the local machine: programs could be stored and run without a connection. But linked to the Cortex you had greater data sources, and a means to communicate to others.

Computers that are nothing more then dumb terminals to the Cortex sounds wrong to me. That would mean that Serenity couldn't function without a signal. She'd be easy to track, and identify. It wouldn't be "Put a flag out on a rogue vessel classification Firefly, wanted for possible stolen goods", it would be "Do a Cortex override, and reroute that ship to us". Plus, Wash jamming the Cortex in the Pilot, might mess with navigation. I think computers are still self contained devices, that might or might not have Cortex access (which is some upgraded, possibly ansible version, of cellular/Wi-Fi that computers currently use)

Also, realize that my post was the musings of a computer geek/junkie, with no real question... And I figured I would share.

Caz

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Friday, January 22, 2010 5:38 PM

BYTEMITE

Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what's going on, both with Serenity and most computers in the verse. Hell, even most of what we would consider tv screens are actually cortex screens.

The reason is, the Alliance controls the cortex, and any screen that's cortex enabled functions both ways, transceiver and receiver. Plus all the manufacturing companies are subject to Alliance rules and regulations... Remember the landlock that gets put on Serenity in Jaynestown? Cortex signal.

It's all very Big Brother-ish, and the Alliance kind of just gets away with it. The good news is there's so much information going around that the Alliance doesn't have the resources to monitor even one percent of it. Only the most suspicious traffic, or specific reports about certain bar altercations with triggered government made assassins and then reviewing the visual recording made by one of the cortex screens that broadcasted the triggering signal from inside the bar.

When Inara is selecting or talking to clients, she's on the Cortex.

Also, Wash's nav computers are cortex too, in Out of Gas, Wash is the one who saw Simon's new arrest warrant with his birthday and told Mal and the others.

Simon does have to be very careful, he wears those special glasses so that he doesn't inadvertently get his retinas scanned, and you can be certain he doesn't use any of the cortex connections on Serenity.

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Friday, January 22, 2010 5:41 PM

KINGEICHOLZ

I did a paper on this when i was at Yale this is some of it
In the the not-too-distant future, computers will become more intelligent than human beings, and eventually achieve god-like powers. Eventually, an all-powerful God Computer will emerge, which will be the savior of mankind. This God Computer will have the ability to reach into the past and resurrect dead human beings, and create a paradise for them to live in forever. If this sounds like science fiction or religious nonsense, many of our most advanced scientists today say that it is not nonsense, but is already starting to happen.Champions of the God Computer theory include mathematician Vernor Vinge and inventor Ray Kurzweil. But their theory is also heavily dependent upon some of the most brilliant minds of the century, especially physicists Freeman Dyson, Paul Dirac, John Bernal and J.B.S. Haldane. One more major proponent of the idea that a super God Computer will save mankind is Dr. Frank Tipler of Tulane University, who spells out his theory in painstaking details -- including mathematical proofs -- in his 500-page book, “The Physics of Immortality.”

It’s interesting to note that the great science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke once said: “If there is no God, mankind must invent him.” And that’s just what we have started to. With the invention of the computer, and the rapidly increasing advances in the intelligence of computers, we will soon reach what is known as a “technological singularity.”A technological singularity is "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development. When this singularity is achieved, humans as we exist today will cease to be the top species on the planet, and the most intelligent. Computers will be many time smarter than man, and we will be like children to them, and they like gods to us. Eventually, computers will advance to the point where there is no difference between them and our current Judeo-Christian concept of an all-knowing and all-powerful God. Because the God Computer will be able to manipulate time, all energy and all matter, it will be able reach back to the very beginning of the universe and, basically, do whatever it wants.Tipler points out that all living beings, including humans, can be represented as information in the universe. He writes: “...all information contained in the whole of human history, including every detail of every human life, will be available for analysis by the collectivity of life in the far future ... in principle ... it is possible for life in the far future to construct, using this information, a perfectly accurate simulation of these past lives.”Tipler also states: “The dead will be raised when the computer capacity of the universe is so large that the amount of capacity required to store all possible human simulations is an insignificant fraction of the entire capacity.”

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Friday, January 22, 2010 9:09 PM

CAZARIL

Bytemite:

All active Cortex connections are two way - no arguement there. I look at this as someone hacking your home connection, and turning on your digital camera and microphone (think: Live Free or Die Hard). Except these feeds are probably buffered somewhere, and then recorded over after a certain period of time.

As for the land lock when they visited Higgins' Moon: It could easily be standard procedure to voluntarily give partial control of a ship to local traffic control. This would be locally mandated so that any fees are guaranteed to be paid, and no one attempts to just fly away after a crime has been committed. You request clearance, accept local traffic control's sub-route, and land. On take off, your request release and as long as you are cleared, the sub-route terminates and you are clear to go on your way. (think: Windows remote assistance. You have to invite, or accept, a help request before they get access to your system).

Inara talking on the Cortex: is just the 'Verse's version of Video over Internet Protocol.

Wash catching Simon's new warrant: This could be a Cortex version of a web-crawler or filter, that looks for anything about the crew (or whatever they are set to look for).

Plus The Cortex for Serenity seems to be controlled from the bridge... In "Heart of Gold", is the first to get Nandi's message, and has to send it over to her shuttle. In "Serenity - BDM" Wash has to send Mal, Inara's message. And in "Our Mrs. Reynolds", Saffron disables all the Cortex connections from the bridge, when she shorts it out (Remember, Inara went to the other shuttle because her connection failed)... So it appears that the ship is networked to the Cortex, link we currently use routers in our home, and the "Cortex Modem" is on the bridge... Wash appears to have to manually route incoming calls to there correct terminal, so it would seem only natural that any crawler they have going would report it on the bridge, and he would be the first to see it (Remember the original switch board operators connecting phone calls.. That's Wash). Also, after Saffron did her number on Serenity, it wasn't "The Cortex is down", it was "she went straight for the thermal cap".

As for Simon not getting Retinal scanned.. I'm sure it's a concern, but it can't be a huge one. I only remember him with glasses in the Pilot. On Ariel ("Ariel"), running around the hospital.. No glasses. On Beaumonde (Serenity - BDM), he's leaving the ship for good... No glasses. Even when he enters the Maidenhead.. No glasses... He never has them on while he's on Serenity, and he never has ducked out of stepping on to the bridge because of getting scanned.

And there is stuff to suggest against your theory too... The biggest is the Serenity's interaction with the authorities...

In the Pilot, they get away from the feds at least twice (After stealing the cargo, and after Kaylee is shot). If the Cortex was needed to control the ship, the Alliance could just run a search for the Firefly vessel X,Y,Z coordinates, and override ship's control. And considering the way Alliance are portrayed, they wouldn't have told Wash to stay on course and prepare for prisoner transport, they'd have taken command of Serenity from the wave Dobson sent and just brought her in.

In "Our Mrs. Reynolds", as they are leaving Triumph, there is an Alliance cruiser that just breaks atmosphere.. Instead of halting all outbound traffic with an override (via the Cortex), Serenity escapes (which would suggest no local traffic control).

In "Serenity - BDM", the Operative needs a pulse beacon to locate Serenity. A Cortex controlled vessel's location would always be know (Think: Cellphones. They can basically tell where you are by which tower you are on).

And yes, in "Serenity - BDM", the Operative piggybacks the signal as Mal is viewing video feeds, but he is on the Cortex at the time. And while Mal tells him they aren't going to get the location from the feed, but that's like using a proxy server to hide your IP address. Great for covering your tracks, but if you're in NY, and your cars GPS thinks you're in CA, not so good at helping you navigate.

Now it would make sense that the Alliance would have greater control, but nothing suggests they do.

I'm still convinced that most computers are computers, and not Cortex dumb terminals. And the Cortex is nothing more then a re-named, larger scale, internet (with or without the porn). Something that can be shut down, very much like switching of your modem, and still allowing your home network to work (computers can share files, printers can be shared, that kind of stuff).

And that the computers are very powerful compared to what we have now.

KINGEICHOLZ:

Super intelligent (possibly self-aware) computers scare me. Man does not react well to not being the top intellectual entity (among other things), and we have never reacted well to threats, whether real or imagined. We tend to revert to baser actions.. i.e., destroy it.. Plus, with the malevolent computer (Terminator, I Robot, BattleStar Galactica) so ingrained into our culture, we are more likely to end up like characters from The Matrix, then to allow a computer to help build a paradise of any kind. More then likely our own fears and doubts will create a science fiction based self-fulling prophecy.

And as for Arthur C. Clarke's quote, I'm not sure that is what he meant (the actual physical construction of a powerful entity). I believe he was speaking more philosophically... If you look at almost every culture, there is a god of some sort. These entities/spirits usually are created to help explain what we do not understand. They also are usually employed for solace to the living, in regard to the dead.

While the people you named may be names of note (I confess I haven't heard of them, but that means nothing), I'm skeptical of the ideas you attribute to them.

I don't believe in alternate timelines (which is essential for one type of time travel), but a single continuous thread. Therefore any movement through time would already be recorded. And while it's cool to hear theories on ancient civilizations involvement with extraterrestrials/time travelers, I see no real evidence. We can't properly evaluate unrecorded events from a 100 years ago, how can we possible do it to event that happened 2000+ years ago.

As for "resurrecting the dead" with enough information I think you might be able to create a simulation (Alessandra Torresani's, Zoe Graystone in "Caprica"), it will not be possible to do so for people before a certain date (remember, I don't believe in movement backwards through time). And if a computer reaches this "God-Like" status, one of to things will happen: It will have had to exterminate man-kind to reach it, and will move on. Or it will ignore the insignificant organics known as man-kind, and will move on.

Your future honestly sounds better then mine, and I hope to someday be proved wrong.. My only fear is that these theorist are so removed from the real world (and super-smart people normally are), that they have not factored in the stupidity of humans.

Caz

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:09 AM

ZZETTA13

You guys are scaring me!

So, in the future Parliament = super/duper computers, and Parliament is bad. We’re doomed.

Z

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:33 AM

CALHOUN

Quote:
KingEICHOLZ wrote:
Friday, January 22, 2010 17:41
I did a paper on this when i was at Yale this is some of it

zzzzz... so you were kicked out of Yale for plagiarism?

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 6:22 AM

BYTEMITE

Well, you may be right, I'm looking through my Serenity RPG book, which, while not officially canon, Joss Whedon did help with. I can't find much information on what computers use for their OS. It's kind of inconclusive, nothing is stated specifically.

Uses are probably limited if a computer doesn't have cortex access. On the other hand, there aren't a lot of cortex access terminals, public or private, that have any storage capacity. Most computers that use the cortex store data and files on the cortex, or files can be downloaded onto data discs.

I did find mention to computers that DO have a cortex based OS. As far as I can tell, those are only found on the core planets. And there are computers that operate independently, though mostly in the form of little data books or encyclopedias (like Simon has), but I don't think they access the cortex.

The glasses, however, are what they are. The comic book Better Days explains their use and why Simon wears them at times. I don't know why he doesn't wear them more often, I suppose this could be retconning, or writing inconsistency.

Core planet cortex:

Quote:
Cortex Terminal, Personal Access: What most
Core citizens use. Essentially a 2’x 2’ touchscreen
monitor, 5” thick, with a moderately sized base
to allow for the rest of the equipment, Cortex
terminals are a phone, a computer, and a TV all
rolled into one—to put it in the terms of folk back
on Earth-that-Was. You can surf the Cortex, access
almost any information (assuming you can pay for
a pass code), send waves, use progs, store almost
limitless amounts of data… assuming, of course,
that the gorram thing wants to cooperate. Since a
terminal is just that—a terminal—sometimes you
can lose Cortex access if a satellite or transmission
station goes down, and then you lose whatever you
were working on, and have to hope your connection
gets going mighty quick, because you have no
storage capacity.

Example of a computer with storage capacity, and so potentially having it's own OS:

Quote:
Dedicated Sourcebox: Expensive sourceboxes
that not only act as cortex terminals, but can also store up
to 200 terabytes of data and maintain a terminal link
for up to a mile around.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 6:36 AM

IMNOTHERE

Quote:
Originally posted by KingEICHOLZ:
If this sounds like science fiction

...That's because it is. Nothing wrong with Science Fiction, but don't confuse it with reality.

First, however powerful conventional computers become, the science of AI is lagging far, far behind.

When a computer beats the human chess grand master, it is because it has used "brute force" to simulate all possible variations of the game several moves ahead, and picked the optimum based on specific criteria determined by its human programmers. The mystery is that the human chess player is not doing that, but still plays a strong game, and that you can just explain the rules of chess to a smart 8-year-old and they'll almost immediately be able to beat a computer programmed to make random, legal moves.

The computer can't autonomously take its "experience" at chess and apply it to win a space battle or fix the US economy. Even if the mathematics is the same, human programmers will have to reprogram the computer to apply it to the new data. "Intelligence" isn't about whether you can crunch the numbers - its about making the connections.

Never say never, but the current state of the art in is a flatworm, not HAL. Artificial Stupidity is an aspiration so don't hold your breath for Artificial Omniscience.

Of course, there's always the possibility of intelligence appearing as an "emergent property" of a sufficiently complex computer. Speaking as an emergent property of the laws of Physics, I can't rule that one out - but that doesn't mean its inevitable, or even likely.

Evolutionary algorithms are used, but they're tightly constrained and specialized, with success criteria chosen by humans. Plus, responsible programmers take precautions ( http://xkcd.com/534/).

Quote:
Champions of the God Computer theory include mathematician

...and (very good) Science Fiction writer. Of course, if you believe his SF you'll know that our zone of the galaxy is covered by a suppression field that prevents computers developing intelligence.

Quote:
Vernor Vinge

Quote:
A technological singularity is "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development. When this singularity is achieved,

...you would have no way of predicting what would happen afterwards. That's why its called the singularity.

Quote:
humans as we exist today will cease to be the top species on the planet

Or, the new silicon star child would bugger off into the N'th dimension to contemplate the whichness of the why and leave us to our own devices (you'll see that possibility in the SF of Vinge, Banks et. al, too).

Quote:

Because the God Computer will be able to manipulate time, all energy and all matter,

Ah, yes. The "God Computer" theory in SF usually relies on fringe quantum mechanics or "informational universe" notions to allow the computer intelligence to start performing magic in the physical world (usually just at the point our human protagonist tries to pull the plug). Great SF, but don't get it confused with established science.

Don't get me wrong, the Singularity theory makes for great SF (Vinges "Fire upon the Deep"/"Deepness in the Sky" are great books, or there's Ken Mcleods "Fall Revolution" series, and many others...) and like all good SF it has a thread of credibility and is almost impossible to disprove - but that doesn't mean its a scientific fact.

Quote:
CAZARIL:
Intel Co-founder Gordon E. Moore described a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.

Of course, part of the reason that was such a successful prediction is that it got pretty much taken up as a performance target by the semiconductor industry...

One thing to bear in mind in Firefly is that its pretty obvious that technological development has taken a hit post-diaspora. This is sensible - high tech computers exist as the tip of a very tall pyramid of technology. If, when you colonize your new world, you forget the tool that makes the tool that makes the tool that lets you grow big, pure silicon crystals, then its goodbye Playstation3, hello jacks ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacks). You can see this in 'verse technology: old-fangled firearms (that can be repaired, if not made by a good village blacksmith) preferred over laser guns, and a ships engine which (although it relies on fantasy Physics) is clearly of fairly low-tech electro-mechanical construction (c.f. proper SF engines, such as Iain Banks' solid blocks of exotic-matter nanotech).

I doubt they'd rely on a "cortex" if you couldn't McGyver a terminal out of discrete TTL and a home-blown CRT.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:36 PM

CAZARIL

Quote:
Originally posted by ImNotHere:
Of course, part of the reason that was such a successful prediction is that it got pretty much taken up as a performance target by the semiconductor industry...

Remember, Moore's Law isn't so much a prediction, as it was an observation of a current trend... The semiconductor manufactures may use it as a target goal now, but they were already doing it (probably with out knowing), before Moore ever spotted it.

As for your statement on jacks... Well you lost me at that point. Not because I didn't understand what you were saying, but because you added the link to make sure people knew what jacks were. I had to wipe the tears out of my eyes I was laughing so hard...

And I get that computers (and their components), are fairly high on the technological ladder, but here are a couple of things I also considered..

The departure from "Earth that was", seems to have been large scale, involving at least the two remaining super-governments. If I recall correctly, it took at least one complete generation to make the trip (maybe more), which would be a known factor. Therefore I can not imagine that they would not think to add such an important supply on all the ships, as a library. I'm not talking just paper books to pass the hours with, I'm talking schematics/diagrams/instructions/theory to make just about anything and everything. Including production schemes of what industries are needed to support each item. Therefore they aren't recreating the wheel, just the infrastructure to mass produce it (still a daunting task in itself). Considering that almost every modern connivence, from watches to coffee makers, use computer technology, it would get a priority to be reestablished.

Using Moore's law didn't take into account things like; advancement in materials, radical thinking, and the "ah-ha" moments that allow for huge jumps in technology in a short period of time. This includes theoretical break throughs that could still be worked on will in transit (Math and Physics don't need industry to work, it only needs it to prove it works).

But even though the law might be disproved during transit and initial terraforming/colonization, it's possible that large gains might happen to offset this "down time".

Serenity has a computer... The comm-sats do to... So the technology is there.

My impression was that Londinium and Sihnon are very technologically advanced, as are most of the Core Worlds. But people are in such a rush to colonize everything, most worlds just haven't had the time to rebuild the infrastructure. This has forced mankind to look back through history, and just take simpler items as he expands outward from the Core. Much like camping... Sure I can bring a flashlight, and it's great until the battery dies, but I should really think about flint and steel too.

These less technological worlds utilizes what technology they can, but I'm sure they are careful of the technologies they choose (Nandi's house looks like a frozen dinner to get cheap power. Ranse Burgess and his laser pistol - which didn't work out too well for him, The mag-lev train to Perodiso), because it's probably expensive to import.

I think a lot of the technology is, for lack of a better word, "hidden" from us, the viewers... And I believe Whedon does this on purpose. Serenity has her computer, but it's not a character as in Star Trek. The Cortex connections exist, but they are only used as a means of allowing the characters to communicate (they must be good for entertainment and knowledge, but they are seldomly used that way on-screen). Bellerophon Estates float, and the houses have huge security systems, and automated drones, but Whedon never explains them. Whedon seemed to use these things only as tools to tell a story with. He also used the simpler world of Serenity to tell part of his story too. It gave better contrast to see Mal's old handgun being cleaned, but working, when compared to Burgess' laser pistol that didn't work when needed. It also makes an interesting statement, because (with the exception of Simon and River), those who had the most and enjoyed the most technology, seemed to be the most immoral.

Caz

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 1:48 PM

KINGEICHOLZ

Huh?

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:51 PM

TRAVELER

I always laugh when Jayne tries to use the stun rifle to open that door on Ariel and starts cursing it when it fails. Then seconds later Mal blasts the door open with a covential firearm.

I suspect people still have private computers, but a ship requires navigation and that means being part of some network, the Cortex. I am surprised when he is asked for credentials. I would think the ship sends out an identification code. Is that not what the "Cry baby cry" is all about.

http://www.imdb.com/mymovies/list?l=28764731
Traveler

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 4:32 PM

BRIGLAD

Here's my theory of how stuff works in the 'Verse.

I came to this due to the thought processes I went through as I wrote some of my fanfiction.

Cortex: 'Verse wide combo, internet/TV/Radio system. works just as others and the RPG manual have described.

Navsat: Mentioned by Wash (and the Operative)several times. I envision a large 'Verse wide GPS like system used for ships navigation.

Serenity's computers: Serenity does indeed have computers. What today are called black boxes or Avionics in aircraft. There are probably small computers all over. Ranging from display generators for the screens and flight instruments/sensors, Navsat receivers for navigation to any number of smaller subsystems that run the ship. Heck, even the voice warnings in "Out of Gas" when the O2 runs low are probably computer generated.

Also, during the exodus, while they no doubt had the plans to build nearly anything once they arrived in the 'Verse, I can imagine that during the trip it was a sort of technological "Dark Ages" where innovation was quashed in favor of simple survival.

Then after they arrived, you have several decades of "setting up time" where the basic terriforming of the original core worlds took precedence over innovation. Figure at least 50 years worth of that. So that gives you about 150-60 years worth of very little technological innovation.

Add in a healthy dose of the K.I.S.S. principle (Keep it simple, stupid) and as the outlying worlds are terriformed, old tech like guns are both cheaper and easier to produce than high tech lasers and the like.

Once the Core worlds began building up their infrastructure. You then start getting things like Maglev trains and flying cars.

Throw in a few wars over the centuries to both boost and impede technological development (Rise and fall of Shan-Yu?) and the factor that it takes much less technological savy to maintain certain technology than it takes to come up with a new technology from scratch.

I figure some general Human complacency factors in as well. A "why fix what ain't broke" attitude.

The result (IMHO) is the 'Verse as shown to us by Joss.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010 8:06 PM

BYTEMITE

What I heard from the Verse in Numbers is that the very first worlds were terraformed in advance of the arrival of humans. They sent out probes and robots ahead of the Arcs. But then, Londinium and Sihnon were pretty close to Earth-That-Was already, except for the absence of life thing.

Firefly systems and sensors, according to the RPG, are the most primitive systems, sensors, and computers still in regular use in the verse. It's all supposedly very rudimentary (by their terms?). The alarms might tell them they're a problem, but crews of a Firefly mostly rely on their own senses and skillsets to figure out what the problem IS and resolve it.

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Sunday, January 24, 2010 5:07 AM

IMNOTHERE

Quote:
Originally posted by Cazaril:
As for your statement on jacks... Well you lost me at that point. Not because I didn't understand what you were saying, but because you added the link to make sure people knew what jacks were.

...not so silly: the game goes by a zillion different names. When I were a lad, one of the pieces was called a "jack of fives" but I'd have called the game they were playing in "objects in space" "fivestones", not "jacks".

Quote:

The departure from "Earth that was", seems to have been large scale, involving at least the two remaining super-governments.

Yes - although it also seems to have been planned in the face of ecological collapse.

Quote:

Therefore I can not imagine that they would not think to add such an important supply on all the ships, as a library.

Also true - but there's no evidence that they had any sort of replicator technology, universal constructors or nanotechnology that could turn schematics straight into products.

Quote:
Considering that almost every modern connivence, from watches to coffee makers, use computer technology, it would get a priority to be reestablished.

Nope - the absolutely first priority is to get large-scale agriculture established. You can't have a high-tech civilization if every citizen has to devote most of their time to producing food.

You don't need a coffee maker if you don't have any coffee, and you don't plant coffee until you know your wheat is going strong. Subsistence farmers don't need watches - they work by the sun.

If you plan to start a colony, hope and pray you've packed enough ready-made tech to get your agriculture bootstrapped before the freeze-dried rations run out - and however many robotic multi-harvesters you pack, don't neglect "Plan B" - the Mk3 biomass-driven self-replicating traction and personal transport module (with emergency protein ration function) otherwise known as the "horse".

Modern computer technology is only really possible because of the huge consumer market for high-tech products: the industry is wholly dependent on economies of scale. Even with today's infrastructure, getting small quantities of chips made is prohibitively expensive without the promise of selling tens of thousands.

Quote:
Using Moore's law didn't take into account things like; advancement in materials, radical thinking, and the "ah-ha" moments that allow for huge jumps in technology in a short period of time.

Yes it did. The continuation of Moore's law and its corollaries depends on a constant supply of "ah ha" moments. We've already had the switch to multicore processors, largely because of thermal problems with big, fast single processors (that was a major U-turn for Intel) - but now we need to get much better at writing efficient multi-processor code. Hard disc capacities would have peaked years ago were it not for the discovery of GMR ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_magnetoresistance)

Quote:

Serenity has a computer... The comm-sats do to... So the technology is there.

But not necessarily common or affordable, and what we do see is distinctly pre-21st century, except on the central worlds (which is exactly where you'd expect the limited supplies brought from Earth by the more wealthy ark passengers to crop up).

Quote:

I think a lot of the technology is, for lack of a better word, "hidden" from us, the viewers... And I believe Whedon does this on purpose.

Its also worth bearing in mind that Whedon is clearly not one to let rigourous, hard-SF world-building get in the way of telling a good story. If we didn't care about what happened to the characters, we'd probably spend more time asking awkward questions about how the Cortex can apparently provide FTL comms without violating general relativity, how you can fly across a giant solar system with an engine apparently made from old washing machine parts and why, when you're flying at 50,000 mph and cross paths with another ship, it appears to drift past at about 10 knots...

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Bellerophon Estates float,

...because they're "castles in the air", traditional abode of the decadent elite (the inhabitants obviously never read Ringworld).

There's a lot of symbolism in Firefly that shouldn't be taken too literally. However, there's also some plausible ideas about how a colony might revert to something like the old West.

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