REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

More real news: Egypt on the precipice of... something

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Monday, July 8, 2013 09:16
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Tuesday, July 2, 2013 8:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It used to be simple to figure out who was who in Egypt:

Mubarek+the Army+USA+international capital versus the Muslim Brotherhood.

Now, the situation is much more fractured:

Army+the USA+ international capital

democratically-elected Muslim brotherhood, no IMF links, with ties to Russia, China and Brazil


secular reformers, religious minorities, and socialists

----------

The Army is still full of old Mubarek officers and is still receiving aid from the USA. Under Mubarek, it USED TO have control of large production sectors under the banner of "national security" Whatever the Army does, it is not a disinterested party in "democracy" but would most likely want to take back its economic interests. Also, whatever the army does has most likely been approved (sotto voce) by American State Department.

The Administration had to recognize the Morsi election. So the Obama administration has been not exactly supportive, but not blcoking either, at least not openly.

OTOH, Morsi has left IMF loans on-hold, while actively courting the BRICs. I suspect that the USA has engineered a shut-off of foreign investment, the Egyptian economy has tanked, and Morsi has not been able to take up the slack. So Morsi is losing support in the population, and the USA loosened the reins on the military. In future, I expect to see a re-establishment of IMF loans to Egypt.

But that's just me.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2013 9:24 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Do you have anything to support your claims?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2013 10:11 AM

BYTEMITE


The fact that when the US invaded Iraq, they were on the shitlist of the world trade organization for refusing to participate in a regional free trade agreement scheme. A new proposal was drafted in 2003, with the intention of bringing the entire region under the standard by 2013.

Also, when the Libyan regime was toppled, they were also refusing to participate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Middle_East_Free_Trade_Area

Funny how the countries that have been destablized since 2003 and which have had new regimes installed are the ones who are now "under negotiation" with the WTO or have "observer status."

The IMF plays just as dirty, and it wouldn't surprise me one iota to learn that they had their thumb in this pie as well.

Economics plays a decision in every political maneuver and military deployment. And since there is a lot of economic interest in the middle east, economics also plays a role in manipulating the politics over there. Sanctions and boycotts from western powers and their proxy states are the order of the day.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2013 11:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Do you have anything to support your claims?
Well, I've been following this for quite a while and sticking miscellaneous facts away in my mental cubbyholes. The things I've presented as facts are facts:

Yes, Morsi's government was offered a loan by the IMF very early in the game. It's still on the table. Yes, the USA recognized the Morsi government soon after election (By contrast, the USA STILL doesn't recognize Maduro's win in Venezuela). Yes, our government is providing military aid to Egypt. Yes, the military did (under Mubarek) control large amounts of production but was eased out of it by Morsi. And (finally) yes- foreign investment and tourism under Morsi have fallen, prices are up, unemployment is thru the roof and people are angry. It would be impossible to find a single link on all of these items, but I thought this article covered most of what I've squirreled away over the past year:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/06/29/egypt-mohamed-mors
i-anniversary-election-unrest/2475099
/

As far as the army gaining approval from the USA before taking action? Well, that is a supposition but a reasonable one, seeing as the USA is the largest benefactor of military money.

As far as the USA trying to bring Egypt back into the monetary fold? I find it interesting that the two ME nations which incurred destruction by the USA both happened to be secular, oil-rich nations... but both were determined not to take USA currency for their oil (Libya and Iraq) and planned instead to accept gold and/or a basket of currencies.

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Wednesday, July 3, 2013 7:39 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Update as of an hour ago:
Quote:

Mursi, Egypt army pledge lives in ‘final hours’ showdown

Egypt’s army commander and Islamist President Mohamed Mursi each pledged to die for his cause as a deadline loomed on Wednesday that will trigger a military takeover backed by protesters.

Military chiefs, vowing to restore order in a country racked by demonstrations over Mursi’s Islamist policies, issued a call to battle in a statement headlined “The Final Hours”. They said they were willing to shed blood against “terrorists and fools” after Mursi refused to give up his elected office.

Less than three hours before an ultimatum was due to expire for Mursi to agree to share power or make way for an army-imposed solution, the president’s spokesman said it was better that he die in defence of democracy than be blamed by history.

“It is better for a president, who would otherwise be returning Egypt to the days of dictatorship, from which God and the will of the people has saved us, to die standing like a tree,” spokesman Ayman Ali said, “Rather than be condemned by history and future generations for throwing away the hopes of Egyptians for establishing a democratic life.”

In an emotional, rambling midnight television address, Mursi said he was democratically elected and would stay in office to uphold the constitutional order, declaring: “The price of preserving legitimacy is my life.”

Liberal opponents said it showed he had “lost his mind”. Much more at http://cyprus-mail.com/2013/07/03/mursi-egypt-army-pledge-lives-in-fin
al-hours-showdown/
]


and
Quote:

Despite mass street demonstrations by millions of his opponents, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, the country's first freely elected leader, has vowed he will not leave office. The military has tightened its control of key institutions, putting officers in the newsroom of state TV, in preparation for an almost certain push to remove Morsi with the expiration of an afternoon deadline. http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ap-photos-egypt-deadline-looms-prot
ests-continue-19564961#.UdRf14nn_cs




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Wednesday, July 3, 2013 7:54 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Morsi was democratically elected (52%) and the Constitution was passed by 63% in a referendum. However, only half of eligible voters cast a ballot on the referendum, so the Constitution was really approved by only about 30% of the voters. It would have been better if they had made the requirement 50%+ of the voting population, that would have provided evidence for a consensus government.

I'm fairly suspicious of the reporting on this topic and the military motives behind the takeover. This is all rather conveniently engineered. Morsi still has a 35% approval rating- not great, but no worse than George Bush and Dilma Rousseff's (Brazil). All three leaders' ratings had a similar trajectory, Rousseff herself just had millions out on the street, but there was no military takeover there.

And don't forget that the "millions" in the Egyptian street represent both PRO and ANTI factions. But just like the Libyan so-called revolution, only one side is breathlessly reported. I expect to see the military take over the Suez Canal post-haste, and ultimately Egypt to be back in a close embrace wtih western economies. There will be an uptick in investment, things will improve (for a while, until that bubble collapses too).

But I may be surprised- it's always fun to guess ahead and see if you get it right.

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Wednesday, July 3, 2013 8:42 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:As far as the USA trying to bring Egypt back into the monetary fold? I find it interesting that the two ME nations which incurred destruction by the USA both happened to be secular, oil-rich nations... but both were determined not to take USA currency for their oil (Libya and Iraq) and planned instead to accept gold and/or a basket of currencies.



You do realize that oil is priced in US dollars but that does not mean it has to be purchased in US dollars, right?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Wednesday, July 3, 2013 11:20 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


No, it HAS to be purchased in US dollars, per international agreements with OPEC producers:

Quote:

The petrodollar system originated in the early 1970s in the wake of the Bretton Woods collapse. President Richard M. Nixon and his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, knew that their destruction of the international gold standard under the Bretton Woods arrangement would cause a decline in the artificial global demand of the U.S. dollar. Maintaining this "artificial dollar demand" was vital if the United States were to continue expanding its "welfare and warfare"spending. In a series of meetings, the United States — represented by then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger — and the Saudi royal family made an agreement. According to the agreement, the United States would offer military protection for Saudi Arabia’s oil fields. The U.S. also agreed to provide the Saudis with weapons, and protection from Israel.

The agreement included:

1) The Saudis must agree to price all of their oil sales in U.S. dollars only. (In other words, the Saudis were to refuse all other currencies, except the U.S. dollar, as payment for their oil exports.)

2) The Saudis would be open to investing their surplus oil proceeds in U.S. debt securities.

By 1975, all of the oil-producing nations of OPEC had agreed to price their oil in dollars and to hold their surplus oil proceeds in U.S. government debt securities in exchange for the generous offers by the U.S.



More recently

Quote:

Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold. Why does that matter, you ask? Only because it strikes at the heart of both the value of the US dollar and today's high-tension standoff with Iran.

Marin Katusa

Chief Energy Investment Strategist
Casey Research

Tehran Pushes to Ditch the US Dollar

The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.

But that line doesn't make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

The short version of the story is that a 1970s deal cemented the US dollar as the only currency to buy and sell crude oil, and from that monopoly on the all-important oil trade the US dollar slowly but surely became the reserve currency for global trades in most commodities and goods Massive demand for US dollars ensued, pushing the dollar's value up, up, and away. In addition, countries stored their excess US dollars savings in US Treasuries, giving the US government a vast pool of credit from which to draw.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/demise-petrodollar

This is a historic fact that everyone familiar with the US dollar as a reserve currency already knows. Please look up the basics of international oil trading. Also, look into the deal that Iraq was about to ink with France once Hans Blix had cleared it of WMD suspicions (a search we cut short by invasion). Also, the currency and gold reserves that Libya had under Kaddafi. I'm too old and too grumpy to do your thinking and research for you.

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Wednesday, July 3, 2013 7:08 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER

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Thursday, July 4, 2013 3:25 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Updates, as of this morning:
Quote:

[Update 7:00 a.m. ET, 1:00 p.m. in Egypt] ...250...the number of arrest warrants for Muslim Brotherhood members in connection with killings in front of MB headquarters, which came under attack days ago. Egypt's new prosecutor general, who Morsy had deposed, issued the warrants.

[Updated at 6:50 a.m. ET, 12:50 p.m. in Egypt] Bahrain's King al-Khalifa, who has had to deal with his own popular uprising, enthusiastically congratulated interim President Adly Mansour "on taking over the reins of power in Egypt at this important time in history." Iran's state-run Mehr News Agency gave Morsy a kick over his religious orientation on his way out: "Sunni Morsi immediately turned into a critical figure against the Iranian Shia government and has not allowed Iran to appoint an ambassador in Cairo."

[Updated at 5:28 a.m. ET, 11:28 a.m. in Egypt] Mansour says the Egyptian people have empowered him to "amend and correct" the revolution.

[Updated at 5:28 a.m. ET, 11:28 a.m. in Egypt] Who is interim President Adly Mansour? His low-key demeanor might be the very reason the military picked him, analysts say. CNN's Faith Karimi explains.

[Updated at 5:11 a.m. ET, 11:11 a.m. in Egypt] Mansour appears before Egypt's assembly, prepares to speak.

[Updated at 5:11 a.m. ET, 11:11 a.m. in Egypt] Did Morsy's personal style rub Egyptians the wrong way and contribute to his downfall? Read this portrait of the deposed president by CNN's Laura Smith-Spark.
[Updated at 4:50 a.m. ET, 10:50 a.m. in Egypt] Reactions have been pouring in from world leaders. Most of them are along the same lines: carefully formulated, and express respect for the will of the Egyptian people. Among the countries that have sent in reactions are Morocco, Jordan ....

[Updated at 4:38 a.m. ET, 10:38 a.m. in Egypt] CNN's Ian Lee reporting in front of the high court: This is the same place, where Mosry was installed just a year ago.

[Updated at 4:34 a.m. ET, 10:34 a.m. in Egypt] Mansour remains chief justice, as well, Egyptian state TV reports.

[Updated at 4:28 a.m. ET, 10:28 a.m. in Egypt] Interim Egyptian President Adly Mansour was sworn in in Cairo.

[Updated at 4:16 a.m. ET, 10:16 a.m. in Egypt] Two leading figures of the Muslim Brotherhood were arrested today, Egytian state radio reports. The former speaker of parliament and a member of the party's executive office were taken to Cairo's Torah prison.

[Updated at 4:10 a.m. ET, 10:10 a.m. in Egypt] Today, the European Union called on Egypt to go down the path of democracy, human rights and non-violence. Its head of foreign affairs and security, Catherine Ashton, said:


"I welcome the peaceful manner in which most demonstrations have been conducted thus far, but I find continuing cases of sexual abuse of female protesters deeply troubling. I urge all sides to show restraint.... Confrontation cannot be a solution."

[Updated at 3:53 a.m. ET, 9:53 a.m. in Egypt] Egypt's military has arrested Morsy and other members of the Muslim Brotherhood. It shut down pro-MB broadcasters and raided al Jazeera's Cairo office after it aired a statement by the deposed president. Then army leaders say today that the military will protect Islamists from attacks and intimidation, state-run Nile TV reports. And they say they will not shut any factions out of political life. That brings up an interesting question:

If we're going to new free & fair elections, will the MB & Mursi be allowed to run 4 office? If not, will they be free & fair? #Egypt

[Updated at 2:52 a.m. ET, 8:52 a.m. in Egypt] Human Rights Watch weighs in on what the Muslim Brotherhood should do next:

Key test for #Egypt is whether Freedom & Justice Party can operate without political reprisals against its members http://ow.ly/mEjBB

[Updated at 2:41 a.m. ET, 8:41 a.m. in Egypt] Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said he is concerned about stability in Egypt but also respects the will of the people. He hopes Egypt will exit the current crisis stronger.

[Updated at 2:28 a.m. ET, 8:28 a.m. in Egypt] Health officials say 32 people were killed in clashes in Egypt yesterday.

[Updated at 2:10 a.m. ET, 8:10 a.m. in Egypt] This is a statement from the UAE, which says it is "following with satisfaction" the developments in Egypt. In the UAE, the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization.


"H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said that the UAE has full confidence that the great people of Egypt will be able to overcome the current difficult moments that the country is experiencing in order to reach a safe and prosperous future. ...

"His Highness added that the great Egyptian army proves, once again, that it is the strong shield and the protector that guarantees that the country is a land of institutions and law that embraces all the components of the Egyptian people."

[Updated at 1:52 a.m. ET, 7:52 a.m. in Egypt] Instagram has put together a collection of the best photos and videos by its users.

[Updated at 1:45 a.m. ET, 7:45 a.m. in Egypt] Morsy deprived the opposition of a political process, activist Ahmed El Hawary told CNN's Anderson Cooper. "We don't have - we didn't have any outlets or anyway to be heard unless we go down to the streets and chant our demands, and even though, he ignored us."

[Updated at 1:27 a.m. ET, 7:27 a.m. in Egypt] A popular image on the photo social media site Imgur, allegedly from Egypt.



[Updated at 12:19 a.m. ET Thursday, 6:19 a.m. in Egypt] Welcome to Thursday's Egypt live blog. With Mohamed Morsy out of power, some of his opponents are making plans to clean up Tahrir Square, while his supporters say they will protest until he is reinstated as president. CNN's Ben Wedeman, a veteran journalist, who was long based in Cairo, warns that there will likely be no calm after the storm of recent protests.

[Updated at 11:52 p.m. ET, 5:52 a.m. in Egypt] Some 40 anti-Morsy protesters are planning to meet with cleaning equipment to polish up their former protest campground, Tahrir Square. They have invited over 2,000 people to join them on Facebook.

[Updated at 11:03 p.m. ET, 5:30 a.m. in Egypt] CNN's Jake Tapper outlines some fine points of Obama's reaction to the Egyptian military's actions:

President Obama’s statement Wednesday evening about the Egyptian military’s seizure of power from President Mohamed Morsy is as telling for what he doesn’t say as for what he does: he doesn’t mention the word “coup.” He doesn’t call upon the Egyptian military to restore power to the “democratically elected civilian government,” but rather to a“democratically elected civilian government” - in other words, it need not be Morsy’s.

The thinking of the president and senior Obama administration officials, according to a knowledgeable source, is that while the administration is not explicitly supporting the removal of Morsy from power - it expressly did not support the move - it is seeking to now push the Egyptian military in a direction.

If the Obama administration were to use the word “coup.” that would have legal ramifications that would result in the end of U.S. aid. If White House officials were to pull the plug completely, they would be removing themselves from the picture altogether. Read the story.

[Updated at 10:19 p.m. ET, 4:19 a.m. in Egypt] CNN's Ben Wedeman, who spent time at a pro-Morsy rally in Cairo on Wednesday evening, reported he spoke to one protester who said he felt demonstrators would stay there "until Mohamed Morsy is once again president of Egypt."

Wedeman recalled the exchange early Thursday after leaving the pro-Morsy rally to go to the larger gathering at Cairo's Tahrir Square, where people still were celebrating Morsy's ouster.

Wedeman said that although much focus is on the joy and excitement at Tahrir Square, "there's a significant portion of the Egyptian population – (although) I wouldn’t suggest it’s a majority – who are very upset at what has happened."

Wedeman, a CNN senior international correspondent who'd previously served as CNN's Cairo bureau chief, said it appeared the overall mood in Egypt would be different than 2011, when then-President Hosni Mubarak was deposed. In 2011, Wedeman said, Mubarak's supporters kept a low profile for months.

"There's not going to be that quiet after the storm this time around," Wedeman said.

[Updated at 10:06 p.m. ET, 4:06 a.m. in Egypt] Get ready for an extremist backlash to Morsy's ouster, says Mohammed Ayoob, Michigan State University professor emeritus of international relations.

"The major lesson that Islamists in the Middle East are likely to learn from this episode is that they will not be allowed to exercise power no matter how many compromises they make in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas," Ayoob wrote for a CNN.com opinion piece. "This is likely to push a substantial portion of mainstream Islamists into the arms of the extremists who reject democracy and ideological compromise."

CNN's Ben Wedeman, reporting from Cairo, also said there's a danger that some members of the Muslim Brotherhood will break from the main group and "challenge (Egypt's new leaders) with violence."

They may take the attitude of "we tried to play the game, our leaders were jailed, our media have been shut down ... so we’re going to destroy the system," said Wedeman, who is a CNN senior international correspondent and had previously been CNN's Cairo bureau chief. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/04/morsy-arrested-muslim-brotherhood
-spokesman-says/comment-page-1
/




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Thursday, July 4, 2013 6:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The new appointees are mostly old Mubarek appointees. Approximately 300 high-ranking Brotherhood members have been "arrested" or are on an arrest list. Why arrested? What crime have they committed? Why not say "protectively detained"? This is clearly a coup. Just as clearly, Obama refuses to recognize it as such, because otherwise he would have to stop giving the Egyptian military the money that he's been giving them all along.

The underlying issue is not civilian versus army or even fundamentalist versus secular, but western capital versus attempted independent capital (following the BRICs), and/or control of the Suez Canal. The actual triggering event for army intervention (approved by Obama; he's paying for the army, so they're gonna ask!) will probably become clear in hindsight.

As this situation unfolds, pay attention to

Quote:

The state-run Al-Ahram News reported that Egypt's stock market surged 7% in the first hours of trading Thursday to a near two-month high.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/04/world/meast/egypt-coup/index.html?hpt=hp
_t1


In other words: Follow the money

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Thursday, July 4, 2013 8:23 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I know this is a unhappy story. There aren't any clear good guys or bad guys here, at least not those in the press. I mean- where's the Hollywod narrative?

But so far, most of our narratives (Iraq: Down with Tyrants with WMD! Libya: Up with the pro-democracy Arab Spring!) have been falsified and untrustworthy.

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Thursday, July 4, 2013 1:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, did I call it or what?

Quote:

Stocks in Cairo rose by 7% on Thursday, their largest one-day percentage gain in over a year.Traders are hoping that Egypt's prospects will improve in the absence of Mr Morsi, even though the country's battered economy remains in crisis.

Some analysts said a long-stalled loan from the IMF may now be possible, although others remained sceptical.
"The technocrats will know how to deal with institutions - they will help the country financially because they have a clear agenda," said Sebastien Henin, portfolio manager at The National Investor, an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm.

"There will be a definitive change to the business environment for international and domestic investors," he added.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23183838

I do not believe this was THE triggering event for the coup. There is something else going on behind the scenes, much more urgent than just a "general improvement in the business climate", because that could have happened later. Perhaps the Brotherhood was contemplating jacking up the passage rates thru the Suez Canal, or perhaps there was a SPECIFIC deal in the works. On the other hand, we can definitely tell who is on which side, and whose pockets are being lined.

So, to the question:
Quote:

Do you have anything to support your claims?
I guess my answer would be: A history of being correct?

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Friday, July 5, 2013 12:11 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



I get why Morsi was 'escorted' out of office, by the military. He wouldn't step down.
But why are so many Muslim Brotherhood leaders being jailed?

How is that kosher ?

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Monday, July 8, 2013 4:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It isn't. Kosher, I mean. Not only that, the army just killed a dozen unarmed members of the Brotherhood. I just don't see a way of bridging the divide now. I suspect that this will devolve into a running battle between the Brotherhood and the army.

Every side is spinning the news. What left me aghast was a WSL opinion piece which said (in part)
Quote:

[n]Egyptians would be lucky if their new ruling generals turn out to be in the mold of Chile's Augusto Pinochet, who took over power amid chaos but hired free-market reformers and midwifed a transition to democracy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578583932317286
550.html#articleTabs=article


Are they totally nucking futs? Pinochet deposed democratically-elected President Allende, and imposed a 17-year military dictatorship characterized by mass arrests, torture of roughly 60,000 suspects, kidnapping and "re-homing" of opposition children, and approx 6000 "disappeared" and dead. Is that what counts as midwifing a "transition to democracy"?, in the eyes of the WSJ??

Also, you have to look back at what happened to Chile in 1970, before the coup. Allende was a popularly elected socialist President- popular in his nation, but VERY unpopular with international companies. He nationalized the copper mines, which caused Kennecot Copper (mine owner), IBM, and Ford (huge consumers of copper) to react. In coopertion with the State Department and CIA, they engineered an international boycott and incited strikes among truck drivers, leading to economic chaos. This may have happend in Egypt as well, with the drying up of capital. Morsi should have known that you never take your foot off one stepping-stone until have the other one firmly planted elsewhere.

In any case, I finally re-heard the figure which describes how much of the economy the Egyptian Army controls: it is estimated to be at 10-40%. Apparently, Morsi never took control of that part of the economy away from the Army, altho he talked about it.

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Monday, July 8, 2013 9:16 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But so far, ALL of our narratives have been falsified and untrustworthy.


There, fixed that for ya.

And I know all about Allende, even though at the time I was too young to care, cause my so called abusive "father" worked for friggin Kennecot, and his previous contacts with the smoke and mirrors boys via his service in the Navy on submarines meant he was in-the-know about exactly what was going on... which in addition to my birth (instead of being conveniently stillborn) was what caused all hell to break loose between them cause my mother sure hell wasn't moving out of the country and thought the whole business was a goddamn atrocity.

-F

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