REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Will Your State Regain It's Representation Next Decade?

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Friday, January 18, 2019 08:04
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018 11:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


To the count you had last decade?

The 2020 Census is scheduled to have the standard set of questions, after the one-time Obama scam set which was used only in 2010. By removing a question to help hide Illegal Alien Status, he was able to redistribute Representatives and Electors to Libtard States and regions. States which were lean on Illegal Aliens like "rust belt" States lost their representation to States consumed and overrun by Illegal Aliens.

I'm in Wisconsin, which looks like it would gain back a seat.
Obviously, California and New York will lose seats. Likely also New Mexico and Arizona.

How about yours?
Or other States you know about?

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Wednesday, March 28, 2018 12:27 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 1:06 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


A related thread is tid=62878

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Friday, January 4, 2019 5:32 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Montana is certain to gain a Seat.
Idaho might gain a Seat.
Florida could gain 3 or 4 Seats, unless their Illegal Aliens were overcounted last time.
Texas might gain 3 seats if their Illegal Aliens were counted again (gained 4 seats that way), but without counting Illegal Aliens, might lose a Seat.
If California counted 5 Million Illegal Aliens last time, they could lose 7 Seats without that count.
AZ might lose the Seat they gained last time when counting Illegal Aliens.
NY, PA, IL, OH will likely each lose a Seat, due to Population loss or shift.
NC would gain a Seat, while MI would lose a Seat.
WA and CO could gain a Seat, if Illegals were not overcounted last time.
Utah is certain to gain a Seat, while KS or AR might lose a Seat.

Last time there were 12 House Seats which migrated.
The above summary suggests 10-13 gains.
And perhaps 15 losses.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 6:04 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 702,885 | 760,712 | 52 | 52/052 | 753,501/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 698,503 | 755,312 | 38 | 38/090 | 745,565
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 717,707 | 751,623 | 26 | 26/144 | 737,573
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 696,468 | 734,459 | 29 | 28/118 | 747,459
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 712,864 | 796,318 | 16 | 16/177 | 772,541/428

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 705,716 | 753,356 | 17 | 17/161 |
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 721,045 | 779,296 | 15 | 15/192 | 754,550/433
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 706,009 | 769,147 | 13 | 13/232 | 741,168
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 692,049 | 751,391 | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 733,515 | 741,687 | 14 | 13/219 | 769,685/429

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 732,661 | 752,739 | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 727,368 | 774,335 | 11 | 11/255 | 741,369
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 672,454 | 675,963 | 11 | 10/265 | 718,490
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 727,535 | 766,905 | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 720,470 | 743,542 | 09 | 08/300 | 788,645/424

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 710,256 | 717,165 | 10 | 09/274 | 755,957/432
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 705,142 | 752,223 | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 748,616 | 765,807 | 08 | 08/308 | 722,009
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 721,723 | 755,340 | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 710,911 | 726,696 | 08 | 07/323 | 776,870/427

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 662,991 | 801,597 | 07 | 07/337 | 749,825
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 718,475 | 813,652 | 07 | 07/330 | 761,101/431
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 682,875 | 814,645 | 06 | 06/349 | 754,214/434
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 660,772 | 726,447 | 07 | 06/343 | 784,497/426
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 755,580 | 776,663 | 06 | 06/355 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 723,225 | 744,734 | 06 | 05/360 | 815,814/422
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 766,215 | 838,145 | 05 | 05/365 | 765,116/430
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 750,323 | 788,616 | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 714,824 | 893,166 | 04 | 04/374 | 798,872/423
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 761,715 | 789,036 | 04 | 04/382 | 705,735

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 742,026 | 746,633 | 04 | 03/393 | 862,136/419
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 728,990 | 753,456 | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 713,283 | 727,876 | 04 | 03/396 | 840,479/421
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 690,648 | 790,279 | 04 | 04/378 | 706,844
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 675,173 | 758,598 | 04 | 04/386 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 686,397 | 698,799 | 03 | 02/398 | 855,454/420
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 617,670 | 902,916 | 02 | 02/402 | 737,227
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 608,780 | 964,634 | 02 | 02/400 | 787,620/425
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 783,826 | 887,104 | 02 | 02/404 |
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 680,151 | 710,246 | 02 | 01/405 | 1004438/416

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 664,181 | 669,202 | 02 | 01/407 | 946,394/418
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | 658,233 | 678,229 | 02 | 01/406 | 959,160/417
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 526,465 | 528,657 | 02 | 01/409 | 747,634
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 989,417 | 531,152 | 02 | 01/408 | 751,163
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 897,936 | 967,171 | 01 | 01/410 | 683,893

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | 814,191 | 882,235 | 01 | 01/411 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 710,249 | 737,438 | 01 | 01/413 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 672,591 | 760,007 | 01 | 01/412 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 625,745 | 626,299 | 01 | 01/414 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 563,767 | 577,737 | 01 | 01/415 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 708,405 | 750,494


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 3:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).

TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.

So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.

Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.


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Monday, January 7, 2019 8:39 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Summary of the above Table:
California would get the 435th Seat, just barely keeping its 53 Seats.
The next Seat would have gone to Montana. After that would be RI (would keep 2nd Seat), FL (would gain a 2nd Seat), MN (would keep current Seat).

TX gains 2.
FL gains 1. Also NC, AZ, CO, OR.
NY loses 1. Also IL, PA, MI, MN, VW, RI.

So 7 Seats would migrate if those Populations were Apportioned today.

Of the losers, 3 went to Trump.
Of the gainers, 4 States gaining 5 Electoral Votes went to Trump.
So that would be a gain of a margin of 4 for Trump.


Projecting to 2020 Census with current Population and migration trends:
Florida would gain 2 Seats.
Montana would gain a Seat.
California would lose a Seat.
Either AL, OH, or AZ would lose a Seat. If Illegal Aliens were overcounted in AZ, that would be the most likely loss.

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Monday, January 7, 2019 8:44 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20

CA 53 53 53 52 lose 1
TX 32 34 38 38 gains 4
NY 29 27 26 26 loses another
FL 25 27 28 29 gains more
I L 19 18 17 17 loses another

PA 19 18 17 17 loses another
OH 18 16 16 16 will not regain
M I 15 14 13 13 loses another
GA 13 14 14 14
NC 13 13 14 14 gains 1 (should have had last time)

NJ 13 12 12 12 will not regain
VA 11 11 11 11
MA 10 09 09 09 will not regain
WA 09 10 10 10
I N 09 09 09 09

TN 09 09 09 09
MO 09 08 08 08 will not regain
AZ 08 09 10 09
MN 08 08 07 07 loses 1 Seat
W I 08 08 08 08

MD 08 08 08 08
CO 07 07 08 08 gains 1
AL 07 07 07 07
LA 07 06 06 06 will not regain
SC 06 07 07 07

KY 06 06 06 06
OR 05 05 06 06 gains 1
OK 05 05 05 05
CT 05 05 05 05
I A 05 04 04 04 will not regain

MS 04 04 04 04
AR 04 04 04 04
KS 04 04 04 04
NE 03 03 03 03
UT 03 04 04 04

NV 03 04 04 04
NM 03 03 03 03
WV 03 03 02 02 lose 1
I D 02 02 02 02
H I 02 02 02 02

ME 02 02 02 02
NH 02 02 02 02
R I 02 02 01 01 lose 1
MT 01 01 01 02 gain 1
DE 01 01 01 01

SD 01 01 01 01
AK 01 01 01 01
ND 01 01 01 01
VT 01 01 01 01
WY 01 01 01 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 12:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.

Projections from that 2014 data indicate Montana would not gain a Seat, and NY would not lose a Seat. And VA, CA would gain a Seat.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu | 2020 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,133,082 | 52 | 52/052 | 764474/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,590,783 | 39 | 38/090 | 768656/433
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,583,239 | 25 | 25/143 | 768117/434
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,922,945 | 29 | 28/118 | 769344/432
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,718,463 | 16 | 16/175 | 771170/431

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,833,103 | 16 | 16/159 | 778121/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,727,696 | 15 | 15/190 | 757019
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 10,027,611 | 13 | 13/230 | 743295
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 10,727,173 | 14 | 14/204 | 740245
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 10,595,602 | 14 | 13/217 | 785398/425

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 09,093,107 | 12 | 11/241 | 791453/424
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 08,646,845 | 11 | 11/252 | 752611
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 07,738,353 | 11 | 10/262 | 737823
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 06,990,732 | 09 | 09/280 | 736887
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 06,743,790 | 09 | 08/297 | 794763/423

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,366,481 | 10 | 09/271 | 776495/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 06,875,944 | 09 | 09/289 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 06,160,833 | 08 | 08/305 | 726061
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 06,109,951 | 08 | 08/313 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 05,845,138 | 08 | 07/327 | 781089/428

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,687,992 | 07 | 07/334 | 760089
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 05,862,124 | 07 | 07/320 | 783359/426
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,914,807 | 06 | 06/346 | 758371
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 05,198,808 | 07 | 06/340 | 802193/420
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 04,691,604 | 06 | 06/352 | 718946

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 04,500,027 | 06 | 05/357 | 821588/419
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 04,280,623 | 05 | 05/362 | 781531/427
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 03,990,945 | 05 | 05/367 | 728643
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 03,572,302 | 04 | 04/371 | 798791/421
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 03,183,464 | 04 | 04/379 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 02,991,137 | 04 | 03/389 | 863466/416
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 03,038,292 | 04 | 03/386 | 877079/415
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 02,926,098 | 04 | 03/392 | 844691/418
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 03,260,409 | 04 | 04/375 | 729049
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 03,117,827 | 04 | 04/383 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 02,104,487 | 03 | 02/394 | 859153/417
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 01,794,037 | 02 | 02/400 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 01,955,000 | 02 | 02/396 | 798125/422
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 01,825,847 | 02 | 02/398 | 745398
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 01,435,538 | 02 | 01/401 | A15078/412

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 01,340,915 | 02 | 01/403 | 948170/414
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | 01,368,706 | 02 | 01/402 | 967821/413
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 01,058,411 | 02 | 01/405 | 748409
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,080,527 | 02 | 01/404 | 764047
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 00,984,480 | 01 | 01/406 | 696132

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | 00,899,246 | 01 | 01/407 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 00,744,235 | 01 | 01/409 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 00,781,348 | 01 | 01/408 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 00,626,437 | 01 | 01/410 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 00,581,229 | 01 | 01/411 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 331,042,139 > 761016


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
CA still squeaks by with the final Seat, and next is MT.
The difference: TX, FL gain 1, and OH, AL lose 1.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 12:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Double posty. I'll make the first one with the 10/8 factor, and this one the 40/33 factor, in case there is a difference.



I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.





I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu 10Pop/Rp 18est P/R
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 40,045,804 | 52 | 52/052 | 762811/435
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,456,094 | 38 | 38/090 | 765157/434
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,577,023 | 26 | 25/143 | 767874/432
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,828,504 | 29 | 28/118 | 766030/433
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,721,890 | 16 | 16/175 | 771377/431

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,829,157 | 17 | 16/159 | 777881/429
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,721,836 | 15 | 15/192 | 756641
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | 706,009 | 769,147 | 13 | 13/232 |
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 692,049 | 751,391 | 14 | 14/206 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 733,515 | 741,687 | 14 | 13/219 |

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | 732,661 | 752,739 | 12 | 12/244 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 727,368 | 774,335 | 11 | 11/255 |
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | 672,454 | 675,963 | 11 | 10/265 |
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 727,535 | 766,905 | 09 | 09/283 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | 720,470 | 743,542 | 09 | 08/300 |

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,336,960 | 10 | 09/274 | 773383/430
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | 705,142 | 752,223 | 09 | 09/292 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 748,616 | 765,807 | 08 | 08/308 |
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | 721,723 | 755,340 | 08 | 08/316 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 710,911 | 726,696 | 08 | 07/323 |

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,676,354 | 07 | 07/337 | 758534
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 718,475 | 813,652 | 07 | 07/330 |
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,910,726 | 06 | 06/349 | 757741
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | 660,772 | 726,447 | 07 | 06/343 |
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 755,580 | 776,663 | 06 | 06/355 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 723,225 | 744,734 | 06 | 05/360 |
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 766,215 | 838,145 | 05 | 05/365 |
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 750,323 | 788,616 | 05 | 05/370 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 714,824 | 893,166 | 04 | 04/374 |
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 761,715 | 789,036 | 04 | 04/382 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 742,026 | 746,633 | 04 | 03/393 |
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 728,990 | 753,456 | 04 | 04/390 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 713,283 | 727,876 | 04 | 03/396 |
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 690,648 | 790,279 | 04 | 04/378 |
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 675,173 | 758,598 | 04 | 04/386 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 686,397 | 698,799 | 03 | 02/398 |
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 617,670 | 902,916 | 02 | 02/402 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | 608,780 | 964,634 | 02 | 02/400 |
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 783,826 | 887,104 | 02 | 02/404 |
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | 680,151 | 710,246 | 02 | 01/405 |

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 664,181 | 669,202 | 02 | 01/407 |
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | 658,233 | 678,229 | 02 | 01/406 |
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 526,465 | 528,657 | 02 | 01/409 |
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,077,766 | 02 | 01/408 | 762095
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 897,936 | 967,171 | 01 | 01/410 |

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | 814,191 | 882,235 | 01 | 01/411 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 710,249 | 737,438 | 01 | 01/413 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 672,591 | 760,007 | 01 | 01/412 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 625,745 | 626,299 | 01 | 01/414 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 563,767 | 577,737 | 01 | 01/415 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 | 708,405 | 750,494


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
The numbers from 2018 Apportioning have the 431st Seat to CO, then AZ, OH, AL, CA. And then the 5 after cutoff are MT, MN, RI, FL (29th Seat), TX (39th Seat).

The numbers for Projected 2020 Census using 8/10 factor would give the 431st Seat to IL, then FL, TX, NY, CA. The next 5 after the cutoff would be MT, MN, AL, OH, VA. Then RI, ID.

The numbers for Projected 2020 Census using 99/120 factor would change to IL, NY, FL, TX, CA. Then MT, MN, AL, OH. The numbers are tighter, and the sequence moves around a bit, but the result ends up the same. From 2018 to 2020 FL and TX jumped in front of MT and MN, in these Projections.

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Saturday, January 12, 2019 1:21 PM

REAVERFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

That's because it's a shit place to live. Nothing but Jesus freaks and meth heads.

There's a reason they call it the middle finger of the south.

This Is the No. 1 Most Polluted State in America
https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-polluted-states-united-states.
html
/

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 12:13 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 34 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 12:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd say that Indiana never really lost it's focus. The sign you see when you cross into Indiana says "A State that Works".

Low taxes and lots of services. I'd say that's a slogan that continues to be earned.

If I lived 40 or so miles west of where I do, I'd be in Illinois and more than 60% of my projected income in 2018 would go to paying property taxes on a similar home. Here it's closer to around 8 to 10% of it.

If I had a real job, my property taxes would be a pittance.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

That's because it's a shit place to live. Nothing but Jesus freaks and meth heads.

There's a reason they call it the middle finger of the south.

This Is the No. 1 Most Polluted State in America
https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-polluted-states-united-states.
html/



lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 4:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


There will apparently be an estimate for 1 July 2019, which would be released around December 2019. So I will make another Projection for this. The factor will be 99/111, or 33/37.


I was looking for more precise details of the Population projections for Census 2020. I found that the most current Projections are from Sabatos Crystal Ball, and are based upon trends and extrapolation of the Population estimates from 2014. The most recent Population estimates, for 1 July 2018, were just released 19 December 2018. These are the figures I used, and approximated results for 2020.

I will, just for fun and greater accuracy, extrapolate Population Projection counts for each State for 2020, based upon the 2018 estimates. This will be taking the Population change from 1 April 2010 to 1 July 2018, and multiplying by 1.25 to get the Population change for 2020. More accurate would be 120/99, or 40/33 - but the estimates are not usually that great to start with.

Projections from that 2014 data indicate Montana would not gain a Seat, and NY would not lose a Seat. And VA, CA would gain a Seat.




I'll try a Table, with current estimated Population update. This is not correcting for Illegal Aliens overcounting, the figures for current are likely including Illegal Aliens.

First column is number of Seats currently in the House of Representatives. Second column is Population in the 2010 Census.
Third column is current Population (est 1 July 2018).
Fourth column is 2010 Population divided by number of House Seats (not used for Apportionment Formula).
Fifth column is 2018 Population divided by assumed number of Seats.
Sixth column is 2018 assumed number of Seats.

Seventh column is whole number of Seats. Population divided by "ideal" size of District Population.
Eighth column is priority number for next Seat. These are what are used for the Apportionment Formula of House Seats currently, but the Formula is subject to change.

Since the Dems have had control of the House in the year of the Census for the past 80 years, it might be assumed they will use the same Formula for Apportionment in 2020 again.

ST #R 2010 Popu | 2018 Popu | 2019 Projd |
CA 53 37,252,895 | 39,557,045 | 39,836,336 | 52 | 52/052 | 758821/433
TX 36 25,146,105 | 28,701,846 | 29,132,845 | 39 | 38/090 | 756761
NY 27 19,378,087 | 19,542,209 | 19,562,103 | 25 | 25/143 | 767288/431
FL 27 18,804,623 | 21,299,325 | 21,601,713 | 29 | 28/118 | 758071/434
I L 18 12,831,549 | 12,741,080 | 12,730,114 | 16 | 16/175 | 771876/430

PA 18 12,702,887 | 12,807,060 | 12,819,687 | 16 | 16/159 | 777307/428
OH 16 11,536,725 | 11,689,442 | 11,707,953 | 15 | 15/190 | 755745
M I 14 09,884,129 | 09,998,915 | | 13 | 13/230 |
GA 14 09,688,681 | 10,519,475 | 10,727,173 | 14 | 14/204 |
NC 13 09,535,692 | 10,383,620 | 10,595,602 | 14 | 13/217 |

NJ 12 08,791,936 | 09,032,873 | | 12 | 11/241 |
VA 11 08,001,045 | 08,517,685 | 08,580,308 | 11 | 11/252 | 746819
WA 10 06,724,543 | 07,535,591 | | 11 | 10/262 |
MA 09 06,547,817 | 06,902,149 | 06,990,732 | 09 | 09/280 |
I N 09 06,484,229 | 06,691,878 | | 09 | 08/297 |

AZ 09 06,392,307 | 07,171,646 | 07,266,111 | 10 | 09/271 | 765915/432
TN 09 06,346,275 | 06,770,010 | | 09 | 09/289 |
MO 08 05,988,927 | 06,126,452 | 06,160,833 | 08 | 08/305 |
MD 08 05,773,785 | 06,042,718 | | 08 | 08/313 |
W I 08 05,687,289 | 05,813,568 | 05,828,875 | 08 | 07/327 | 778916/427

MN 08 05,303,925 | 05,611,179 | 05,648,422 | 07 | 07/334 | 754803
CO 07 05,029,324 | 05,695,564 | 05,776,320 | 07 | 07/320 | 771893/429
AL 07 04,780,127 | 04,887,871 | 04,900,931 | 06 | 06/346 | 756230
SC 07 04,625,401 | 05,084,127 | | 07 | 06/340 |
LA 06 04,533,479 | 04,659,978 | 04,691,604 | 06 | 06/352 |

KY 06 04,339,349 | 04,468,402 | 04,500,027 | 06 | 05/357 |
OR 05 03,831,073 | 04,190,713 | 04,280,623 | 05 | 05/362 |
OK 05 03,751,616 | 03,943,079 | 03,990,945 | 05 | 05/367 |
CT 05 03,574,118 | 03,572,665 | 03,572,302 | 04 | 04/371 |
I A 04 03,046,869 | 03,156,145 | 03,183,464 | 04 | 04/379 |

MS 04 02,968,103 | 02,986,530 | 02,991,137 | 04 | 03/389 |
AR 04 02,915,958 | 03,013,825 | 03,038,292 | 04 | 03/386 |
KS 04 02,853,132 | 02,911,505 | 02,926,098 | 04 | 03/392 |
UT 04 02,763,888 | 03,161,105 | 03,260,409 | 04 | 04/375 |
NV 04 02,700,691 | 03,034,392 | 03,117,827 | 04 | 04/383 |

NM 03 02,059,192 | 02,095,428 | 02,104,487 | 03 | 02/394 |
WV 03 01,853,011 | 01,805,832 | 01,794,037 | 02 | 02/400 |
NE 03 01,826,341 | 01,929,268 | | 02 | 02/396 |
I D 02 01,567,652 | 01,774,208 | 01,799,245 | 02 | 02/398 | 734538
H I 02 01,360,301 | 01,420,491 | | 02 | 01/401 |

ME 02 01,328,361 | 01,338,404 | 01,340,915 | 02 | 01/403 |
NH 02 01,316,466 | 01,356,458 | | 02 | 01/402 |
R I 02 01,052,931 | 01,057,315 | 01,057,838 | 02 | 01/405 | 748004
MT 01 00,989,417 | 01,062,305 | 01,071,140 | 02 | 01/404 | 757410/435
DE 01 00,897,936 | 00,967,171 | 00,975,563 | 01 | 01/406 | 689827

SD 01 00,814,191 | 00,882,235 | | 01 | 01/407 |
AK 01 00,710,249 | 00,737,438 | 00,744,235 | 01 | 01/409 |
ND 01 00,672,591 | 00,760,077 | 00,781,348 | 01 | 01/408 |
VT 01 00,625,745 | 00,626,299 | 00,626,437 | 01 | 01/410 |
WY 01 00,563,767 | 00,577,737 | 00,581,229 | 01 | 01/411 |

T 435 308156338 | 326464979 |


In 2010, the 435th Seat assigned was to Minnesota with 710,230. The 436th Seat would have been assigned to North Carolina with 709,062.
CA still squeaks by with the final Seat, and next is MT.
The difference: TX, FL gain 1, and OH, AL lose 1.
2019 Projection is competitive. OH and AL lose, while FL jumps in front of MT, but TX does not - so MT gets a 2nd Seat. Another year and TX bumps off MT, unless Illegal Aliens in TX are not counted.

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:18 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 6:34 PM

REAVERFAN


Yes. Illinois, being a blue-ish state, is more productive than the money-sucking red welfare state that is Indiana.

Indiana is what Pence and his cronies molded it to be . It's a Christofascist police state with shitty schools that drives people out.

It ranks 42nd in education. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/10/02/ohio-indiana-ke
ntucky-rank-among-least-educated.html


They have a surplus, but corporate taxes continue to dwindle. https://www.ibj.com/articles/69642-indiana-finishes-fiscal-year-with-s
urplus-but-corporate-income-taxes-shrink


And the cops are shit.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/29/671799943/indiana-police-face-allegatio
ns-of-police-brutality





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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

I hope you enjoy living wherever you are and paying the government more to rent your house from them than most other places in the country spend for monthly rent on an apartment. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You really need numbers to back your claims. Take a look at "State tax collections by source (as percentages), 2016" https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_state_budget_and_finances

You are seriously not correct about the differences between Indiana and Illinois state taxes. Maybe there are some other taxing entities, such as school districts or counties or towns, that make a big difference between property taxes in the two states.

Illinois collects $3,039 per person per year
Indiana collects $2,652

Indiana makes up the difference by collecting more from the Federal Government than Illinois.

Indiana gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,664
Illinois gets Federal Aid per Capita of $1,387

For both states, most of the locally raised tax money for the state comes from Sales Taxes and Income Taxes, NOT Property Taxes.

Maybe school districts, not the state, are collecting more property tax money in Illinois than Indiana, but I'm not gonna look that up for you. Where I live, you can look at anybody's property tax bill. That reduces the amount of tax cheating.
http://hcad.org/property-search/real-property/real-property-search-by-
address
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.



You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?



Why wouldn't they? The goons running Chicago steal money from the rest of the state. Doesn't seem like they know the difference either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 7:47 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol. Once again you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

[Northwest Indiana] NWI is identical to any of the Chicago suburbs, minus the insane taxes. Especially the property taxes.

Do Trolls confuse Illinois with Chicago?

What are you claiming, JSF?

Are you claiming that Illinois state income tax rate is higher for Chicago Suburbs than in the rest of the state? You can't prove that.

Are you claiming that the sales tax that goes to the state is higher for Chicago Suburbs than the rest of Illinois? You cannot prove that, either.

Are you claiming that Chicago Suburbs' property taxes the same as Chicago's?

Are you claiming that the Suburbs taxes are completely unlike the rest of Illinois? Pretty unlikely. Got some proof?

Give us some numbers to backup whatever it is you are claiming.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 8:12 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You need to give me some numbers: What is the value of your dad's house versus your house? Telling me the taxes are $7k versus $1k tells me nothing about how much the house is worth. Why is that important? Everywhere in the USA, the property tax equals the tax rate times the value of the property. The house I'm sitting in right now would be worth millions if it was in Silver Lake, CA or River Oaks in Houston. But where it is located in Baytown it is worth 5% of that. And guess what? The property tax is only 5% of what it would be in those other places. I'm living larger than anybody in the LA area you ever heard of who is isn't a multi-billionare with a gold-plated house.

6ix, if your house is in a low value neighborhood, your taxes will be low, even if your house looks just as good as a house in a high value neighborhood in California. If I recall correctly, your house is in a flood zone. That can lower the value by 90% from the house 500 feet away that can't flood. Lowers the taxes by 90%, too. But I doubt your house looks good compared to your relative's homes, which explains the $7k your Dad pays versus $1k you pay.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 9:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My brother pays over $5k per year in Illionis. My Dad pays nearly $7k per year. My mom and step dad paid over $8k per year before they moved to Arizona and pay just about what I'm paying now.

All three of them live in areas that look identical to where I live in Indiana. I'm paying just over $1k.


You're full of shit Second.

You can look up anybody's property taxes in Illinois and Indiana as well. Every single person who owns a house. You are not unique in Texas.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You need to give me some numbers: What is the value of your dad's house versus your house? Telling me the taxes are $7k versus $1k tells me nothing about how much the house is worth. Why is that important? Everywhere in the USA, the property tax equals the tax rate times the value of the property. The house I'm sitting in right now would be worth millions if it was in Silver Lake, CA or River Oaks in Houston. But where it is located in Baytown it is worth 5% of that. And guess what? The property tax is only 5% of what it would be in those other places. I'm living larger than anybody in the LA area you ever heard of who is isn't a multi-billionare with a gold-plated house.

6ix, if your house is in a low value neighborhood, your taxes will be low, even if your house looks just as good as a house in a high value neighborhood in California. If I recall correctly, your house is in a flood zone. That can lower the value by 90% from the house 500 feet away that can't flood. Lowers the taxes by 90%, too. But I doubt your house looks good compared to your relative's homes, which explains the $7k your Dad pays versus $1k you pay.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



You know nothing about property taxes in Illinois if you're making that argument. Nor do you know anything about how different states come up with their property tax schemes independent of each other. No doubt you're completely aware of the clauses regarding property taxes that are in the Indiana State Constitution.

Do some research on Illinois property taxes. Figure out why it is impossible to fight them on your own without a lawyer.


Also, go ahead and look at property taxes in St. John, IN. Then look at property taxes in Orland Park, IL. Tell me which one is higher based off of the values of the homes.

Instead of insulting me, my home and the nice neighborhood I live in, do some fucking research and you won't come off like such a know nothing asshole.

Either that, or you could just shut the fuck up completely when you don't know what you're talking about. Whichever is easier for you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019 9:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


States With the Highest Property Taxes

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/states-highest-property-taxes-090000576
.html


Quote:

6. Illinois

Average state property tax rate: 2.253 percent
Median real estate taxes paid: $4,058

Illinois’ median home value is $174,300 — which is well below the national median. But the state’s property tax rate is the second-highest in the country.



Keep in mind that's the median for the entire state, including all of the houses out in the boonies. Almost everyone I know that lives in Illinois lives in Cook County which is higher than much of the rest of the state.





MORE:

https://smartasset.com/taxes/illinois-property-tax-calculator

Quote:

The state of Illinois has the second highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is 2.32%, nearly double the national average.


How Your Property Taxes Compare Based on an Assessed Home Value of $250,000

McHenry County $6,915
2.766% of Assessed Home Value

Illinois $5,633
2.253% of Assessed Home Value

National $3,028
1.211% of Assessed Home Value




And as for Indiana, one of the main reasons it's so much cheaper in comparison is that there is a 1% tax cap on your home in the Indiana State Constitution, so it's lower than the national average by .211%.

Vehicle taxes here are high, and that makes up some of it. But only for new owners. You can pay somewhere around $600 in taxes the first year that you own a car if it's expensive enough. That goes down the first 10 years you own the car. If you didn't buy a Bentley, by 10 years it will be half of what all drivers in Illinois pay for vehicle registration.

My yearly vehicle registration since I've been here has been between $32 and $47. When I left Illinois it was $112. Not sure what it is there now, but it only goes up.



Houses here are also cheaper, this is true. Add that on top of the MUCH lower tax rate and this is a no-brainer. I've got three times the land as my brother does, and we both own similarly sized tri-level homes. Mine is in nice condition and I've done a lot of repairs. They paid top dollar for theirs after somebody fixed it all up and flipped it. It cost them around $210,000. I bought mine foreclosed for less than $70,000, but the previous owners had paid $150,000 for it.

That's the (lower) price you pay for living an extra 30 minutes from Chicago and over the border. For those of us like myself that don't care, it's a dream. The only big store that I don't have around me is IKEA, but you could say that for a majority of Americans.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, January 14, 2019 7:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

If you are worried about the difference between 2.253 percent in Illinois versus less than 1 percent in Indiana, you must really be freaked out by the seven federal tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%. I believe you’ve done things to keep yourself in a lower tax bracket. That way of thinking is self-defeating. I suggest The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works. https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

One of the points Munger makes: Avoid intense ideologies. Always consider the other side as carefully as your own.

One more from Munger: I have a friend who carried a big stack of index cards about this thick, and when somebody would make a comment that reflected self pity, he would take out one of the cards, take the top one off the stack and hand it to the person, and the card said, “Your story has touched my heart, never have I heard of anyone with as many misfortunes as you”. Well, you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self pity, I don’t care what the cause, self-pity is not going to improve the situation. Just give yourself one of those cards.

When you avoid self-pity you get a great advantage over almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it. And of course self-serving bias, you want to get that out of yourself; thinking that what’s good for you (less than 1% tax rate, for example) is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on the subconscious tendency to serve one’s self.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, January 14, 2019 9:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

States With the Highest Property Taxes . . .

If you are worried about the difference between 2.253 percent in Illinois versus less than 1 percent in Indiana, you must really be freaked out by the seven federal tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%. I believe you’ve done things to keep yourself in a lower tax bracket. That way of thinking is self-defeating. I suggest The Munger Operating System: How to Live a Life That Really Works. https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

One of the points Munger makes: Avoid intense ideologies. Always consider the other side as carefully as your own.

One more from Munger: I have a friend who carried a big stack of index cards about this thick, and when somebody would make a comment that reflected self pity, he would take out one of the cards, take the top one off the stack and hand it to the person, and the card said, “Your story has touched my heart, never have I heard of anyone with as many misfortunes as you”. Well, you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self pity, I don’t care what the cause, self-pity is not going to improve the situation. Just give yourself one of those cards.

When you avoid self-pity you get a great advantage over almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it. And of course self-serving bias, you want to get that out of yourself; thinking that what’s good for you (less than 1% tax rate, for example) is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on the subconscious tendency to serve one’s self.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Spare me the philosophical bullshit.

You were wrong. It's okay to admit that.

The tax rate on property in most parts of Illinois that isn't farm land is effectively 2.5 to 3 times that of Indiana. Most people who "own" their homes in Illinois pay as much or more in property taxes as they would to just rent an apartment.

Where I live has everything that the Chicago suburbs in Illinois have, plus they even come and pick all my leaves up for me so I don't have to put them in 150 bags every year. There's a Wendy's, McDonalds, Burger King, White Castle, 5 gas stations all within a mile. Target, WalMart and a few malls within 5 miles.

The only thing it doesn't have that Chicago suburbs do is quick access to Chicago. Something that doesn't matter at all to me.



A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, January 14, 2019 10:16 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, many people who work in Houston decide it is better to live in Houston, have a short commute to work and pay the property taxes on their more valuable house, then it is to have a long commute from either Fort Bend county or Montgomery county. It is the difference between rising upward to wealth or sinking downward to the earth. I've noticed that Republicans flee to the suburbs. They consciously made their choice for lower taxes. They unconsciously also choose less wealth, but they can't see the connect to what they did to themselves. That's their problem, not mine. Charlie Munger told 'em, but he can't make 'em think.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, January 14, 2019 3:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

A lot of people in Illinois are noticing that. They're moving out here.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, many people who work in Houston decide it is better to live in Houston, have a short commute to work and pay the property taxes on their more valuable house, then it is to have a long commute from either Fort Bend county or Montgomery county. It is the difference between rising upward to wealth or sinking downward to the earth. I've noticed that Republicans flee to the suburbs. They consciously made their choice for lower taxes. They unconsciously also choose less wealth, but they can't see the connect to what they did to themselves. That's their problem, not mine. Charlie Munger told 'em, but he can't make 'em think.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Some people don't like Chicago. Not even to visit.

Believe it or not, there are a lot of people in the world who have no desire to be rich and as long as there is food on the table and a roof over their head they are happy.

You do a whole lot of telling people not to be stuck in their own way of thinking, but you sure do a lot of that yourself.

It might behoove you to develop some empathy. Maybe then you would understand why everybody doesn't think exactly the same way that you do.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, January 15, 2019 9:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


More info on Illinois property taxes:

Quote:

How Property Taxes in Illinois Work

Property tax assessments and collections in Illinois run on a roughly two-year cycle. In year one, local assessing official appraise real estate to determine a market value for each home in their area. The assessed value of property in most of Illinois is equal to 33.33% (one-third) of the market value of the residential property. In Cook County, however, the assessment ratio is 10% on residential property and 25% on commercial property.

After local officials calculate the assessed values of properties, county boards review these values to determine if they are correct. These county boards may equalize assessed values. If they find, for example, that the property in a certain district was appraised at half of its actual value, they will apply an equalization factor of 2, doubling the assessed value of everything in the district.

Property owners also have the opportunity to protest their assessed value before the county board. If a homeowner is not satisfied with the county board’s decision, they can appeal to the State Property Tax Appeal Board or even the circuit court.

The state of Illinois also equalizes values between counties by issuing an equalization factor for each county. This ensures that assessed property values in all counties are comparable.



Did you get that? Sounds like nobody knows what is going on and they can just raise rates wherever they want to because the entire system is so purposefully convoluted that nobody knows exactly what they're fighting.





In Indiana, the property taxes are based off of the assessed true market value of your home. None of this 33.3% or 10% of the value multiplied by an arbitrary equalizer value. On top of that, your property tax card lists out many details about individual pieces on your property and exactly what the township has them assessed at. Examples are livable space, air conditioning, permanent fixtures such as garages and patios, etc.

That being the case, it is actually possible to bring a legitimate grievance to your local assessor and work with them to rectify the situation.

A small example of the huge reduction in my own property taxes was when I was able to remove $3,500 off the assessed value by proving that I didn't have the central A/C unit the previous owners scrapped when they were foreclosed on. Another was when I proved that my back "patio" was just a bunch of paver bricks that I could remove tomorrow, which reduced the value a further $5,000.

I won't go into all the details here again. I've spoken about it in depth before. I'm just illustrating how easy it is to figure out when you're getting screwed on your tax card here when we're dealing with real numbers.





Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 17, 2019 5:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2018



ST. LOUIS – Jan. 2, 2019 – Americans are on the move, relocating to western and southern parts of the country. The results of United Van Lines’ 42nd Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year, revealed that more residents moved out of New Jersey than any other state in 2018, with 66.8 percent of New Jersey moves being outbound. The study also found that the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration was Vermont (72.6 percent), with 234 total moves. Oregon, which had 3,346 total moves, experienced the second highest percentage nationally, with 63.8 percent inbound moves.

States in the Mountain West and Pacific West regions, including Oregon, Idaho (62.4 percent), Nevada (61.8 percent), Washington (58.8 percent) and South Dakota (57 percent) continue to increase in popularity for inbound moves. In tune with this trend, Arizona (60.2 percent) joined the list of top 10 inbound states in 2018.

Several southern states also experienced high percentages of inbound migration, such as South Carolina (59.9 percent) and North Carolina (57 percent). United Van Lines determined the top reasons for moving south include job change (46.6 percent) and retirement (22.3 percent).

In the Northeast, however, an outbound moving trend continues. New Jersey (66.8 percent), Connecticut (62 percent) and New York (61.5 percent) were included among the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year. Midwestern states like Illinois (65.9 percent), Kansas (58.7 percent), Ohio (56.5 percent) and Iowa (55.5 percent) saw high outbound relocation as well.

“As the nation’s largest household goods mover, our study allows us to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation throughout the country, year after year,” said Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines. “These findings accurately reflect not only where Americans are moving to and from, but also the reasons why.”

The National Movers Study reveals the business data of inbound and outbound moves from 2018. In addition to this study, United Van Lines also conducts a survey to find out more about the reasons behind these moves. A leading motivation behind these migration patterns across all regions is a career change, as the survey showed approximately one out of every two people who moved in the past year moved for a new job or company transfer. Other reasons for the high percentage of moves to the Mountain West in 2018 include retirement (28.1 percent), proximity to family (20.8 percent) and lifestyle change (19.4 percent). Compared to all other states, Idaho saw the largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (25.95 percent), and more people flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state (42.74 percent).

“The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges and more temperate climates,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2018 were:

Vermont
Oregon
Idaho
Nevada
Arizona
South Carolina
Washington
North Carolina
South Dakota
District of Columbia

New to the 2018 top inbound list are Arizona at No. 5 and District of Columbia at No. 10, with 60.2 percent and 56.7 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2018 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
New York
Kansas
Ohio
Massachusetts
Iowa
Montana
Michigan

New Jersey (66.8 percent), which has ranked in the top 10 for the past 10 years, moved up one spot on the outbound list to No. 1. New additions to the 2018 top outbound list include Iowa (55.5 percent), Montana (55 percent) and Michigan (55 percent).

Balanced

In several states, the number of residents moving inbound was approximately the same as the number moving outbound. Arkansas and Mississippi are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines has annually tracked migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2018 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To view the entire 2018 study, an interactive map and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines website.

Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to move to!
Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to retire!
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PRESS KIT:
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Press Release, Map and Data
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Thursday, January 17, 2019 8:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Thanks for posting SGG's article here.

I think that Second must have realized he was wrong since it's been a while without a reply. I'm alright with that. Glad I could teach him something.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 17, 2019 8:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Sales tax was something that I neglected to bring up for Illinois as well.

There's a base state rate of 6.25%, but local governments (county, city) are allowed to raise that another whopping 4.75% on top of that. Cook County, home of Chicago, is typically the highest in the state. My bro and my dad live where it's 10.5%.

Conversely, there is a flat 7% sales tax rate in Indiana. No local governments are allowed to raise this.

In addition to all of this, like in Wisconsin, unprepared food is not taxed in many parts of Indiana, although some local governments do tax it either 1 or 2%. NWI Lake County does not tax at all on food. However, ALL food is taxed at the local rate in Illinois (At least 6.25%, but as much as 11%).




EDIT: Regarding that last paragraph... Seems that the law on food tax in Illinois changed in the decade plus since I lived out of the state, likely in tandem with the original rate hikes, or later on to combat their severe impact on those living under the poverty level but not poor enough to be on food stamps (where there is no sales tax).

The full 6.25% is not charged by the state for food. It's only 1%. However, the local governments are still allowed to further tax it another 4.75% on top of that, for a maximum food sales tax of 5.75%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 18, 2019 2:27 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Sales tax was something that I neglected to bring up for Illinois as well.

There's a base state rate of 6.25%, but local governments (county, city) are allowed to raise that another whopping 4.75% on top of that. Cook County, home of Chicago, is typically the highest in the state. My bro and my dad live where it's 10.5%.

Conversely, there is a flat 7% sales tax rate in Indiana. No local governments are allowed to raise this.

In addition to all of this, like in Wisconsin, unprepared food is not taxed in many parts of Indiana, although some local governments do tax it either 1 or 2%. NWI Lake County does not tax at all on food. However, ALL food is taxed at the local rate in Illinois (At least 6.25%, but as much as 11%).




EDIT: Regarding that last paragraph... Seems that the law on food tax in Illinois changed in the decade plus since I lived out of the state, likely in tandem with the original rate hikes, or later on to combat their severe impact on those living under the poverty level but not poor enough to be on food stamps (where there is no sales tax).

The full 6.25% is not charged by the state for food. It's only 1%. However, the local governments are still allowed to further tax it another 4.75% on top of that, for a maximum food sales tax of 5.75%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Does Tax on "grocery" (aka unprepared food) still vary from County to County? I knew many States have different levels of Taxation on necessities, but I had assumed it was Statewide, yes or no. Hadn't really paid attention. I do believe WI is all Counties the same, no Tax on "grocery" and that rule unchanged for many Decades.


This is another example of local representation, rules made by the State, which supports State's Rights, not subject to Federal Regs. The people of the State decide/vote how they want to be screwed.
This is an important factor in some discussions of switching from Federal Income Tax to Consumption Tax. What would the Tax be applied to, what Consumption? Well, obviously, whatever the prevailing rules on Taxation were for each State. If State includes basic necessities like grocery in it's Tax Base, then the Consumption Tax would apply to that, for that State. This also makes the local or State level Elected Official more responsive to the Voter - you don't like paying 15% Consumption Tax on your grocery, you need to straighten out your State Legislature, vote in somebody with sense.
If the expenditures of poor folk such as grocery, bare housing, bare medical, basic education, mass transit are rendered untaxable, then truly poor folk become essentially untaxed. And if they feel the urgent need to be Taxed, they can purchase a Luxury Item, and pay the Tax just like anybody else.
If the State deems an item or category as Taxable, then that would be the rule for the Federal Government to apply the Consumption Tax. This makes the collection system truly piggyback - just include the Consumption Tax on each item already being processed with an existing Tax, no need for any monstrosity of administration to collect with - and IRS can wither away, not just shift function. And the IRS Budget and expense goes away, for even more Taxpayer's saving.




Anyway, back to second's claims. Do you see how the numbers he is claiming are really represented in the way you have laid out the actual numbers for IL and IN? Or are his numbers complete Manure? I cannot reconcile his numbers with any known reality, didn't know if you could.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 2:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2018



ST. LOUIS – Jan. 2, 2019 – Americans are on the move, relocating to western and southern parts of the country. The results of United Van Lines’ 42nd Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ state-to-state migration patterns over the past year, revealed that more residents moved out of New Jersey than any other state in 2018, with 66.8 percent of New Jersey moves being outbound. The study also found that the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration was Vermont (72.6 percent), with 234 total moves. Oregon, which had 3,346 total moves, experienced the second highest percentage nationally, with 63.8 percent inbound moves.

States in the Mountain West and Pacific West regions, including Oregon, Idaho (62.4 percent), Nevada (61.8 percent), Washington (58.8 percent) and South Dakota (57 percent) continue to increase in popularity for inbound moves. In tune with this trend, Arizona (60.2 percent) joined the list of top 10 inbound states in 2018.

Several southern states also experienced high percentages of inbound migration, such as South Carolina (59.9 percent) and North Carolina (57 percent). United Van Lines determined the top reasons for moving south include job change (46.6 percent) and retirement (22.3 percent).

In the Northeast, however, an outbound moving trend continues. New Jersey (66.8 percent), Connecticut (62 percent) and New York (61.5 percent) were included among the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year. Midwestern states like Illinois (65.9 percent), Kansas (58.7 percent), Ohio (56.5 percent) and Iowa (55.5 percent) saw high outbound relocation as well.

“As the nation’s largest household goods mover, our study allows us to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation throughout the country, year after year,” said Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines. “These findings accurately reflect not only where Americans are moving to and from, but also the reasons why.”

The National Movers Study reveals the business data of inbound and outbound moves from 2018. In addition to this study, United Van Lines also conducts a survey to find out more about the reasons behind these moves. A leading motivation behind these migration patterns across all regions is a career change, as the survey showed approximately one out of every two people who moved in the past year moved for a new job or company transfer. Other reasons for the high percentage of moves to the Mountain West in 2018 include retirement (28.1 percent), proximity to family (20.8 percent) and lifestyle change (19.4 percent). Compared to all other states, Idaho saw the largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (25.95 percent), and more people flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state (42.74 percent).

“The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges and more temperate climates,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2018 were:

Vermont
Oregon
Idaho
Nevada
Arizona
South Carolina
Washington
North Carolina
South Dakota
District of Columbia

New to the 2018 top inbound list are Arizona at No. 5 and District of Columbia at No. 10, with 60.2 percent and 56.7 percent inbound moves, respectively.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2018 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
New York
Kansas
Ohio
Massachusetts
Iowa
Montana
Michigan

New Jersey (66.8 percent), which has ranked in the top 10 for the past 10 years, moved up one spot on the outbound list to No. 1. New additions to the 2018 top outbound list include Iowa (55.5 percent), Montana (55 percent) and Michigan (55 percent).

Balanced

In several states, the number of residents moving inbound was approximately the same as the number moving outbound. Arkansas and Mississippi are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines has annually tracked migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2018 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To view the entire 2018 study, an interactive map and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines website.

Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to move to!
Click here for our blog post on the top ten states to retire!
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Follow us on:

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For more information on United or if you are a member of the press and have questions/comments, please email our Director of Communications by clicking below:

Eily_Cummings@unigroup.com
PRESS KIT:
United Van Lines
2018 National
Movers Study

Press Release, Map and Data
Download Now

Not much surprise on the Outbound list, all being overrun by Libtards. Except Montana, which would be reversing it's Decade trend of Inbound - not sure why that is changing for 2018.

Seems weird that CA, TX, FL are not on either list. VT is obviously folk escaping NY, MA, ME, CT, NJ.
Oregon and DC seem like outliers. Haven't seen DC listed elsewhere - who wants to move there?
They mention NM, but don't list it.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 3:17 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Adding in the Seats from Projected 2020 Apportionment.

Regarding the title, another table to show the number of Seats.
The years are for the Population/Census, not the Seats for that year, but for 2 years later.

ST 00 10 18 20 P20 P19

CA 53 53 53 52 | 53 | 53
TX 32 34 38 38 | 39 | 38
NY 29 27 26 26 | 26 | 26
FL 25 27 28 29 | 29 | 29
I L 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17

PA 19 18 17 17 | 17 | 17
OH 18 16 16 16 | 15 | 15
M I 15 14 13 13 | 13
GA 13 14 14 14 | 14
NC 13 13 14 14 | 14

NJ 13 12 12 12 | 12
VA 11 11 11 11 | 11
MA 10 09 09 09 | 09
WA 09 10 10 10 | 10
I N 09 09 09 09 | 09

TN 09 09 09 09 | 09
MO 09 08 08 08 | 08
AZ 08 09 10 09 | 10 | 10
MN 08 08 07 07 | 07
W I 08 08 08 08 | 08

MD 08 08 08 08 | 08
CO 07 07 08 08 | 08 | 08
AL 07 07 07 07 | 06 | 06
LA 07 06 06 06 | 06
SC 06 07 07 07 | 07

KY 06 06 06 06 | 06
OR 05 05 06 06 | 06
OK 05 05 05 05 | 05
CT 05 05 05 05 | 05
I A 05 04 04 04 | 04

MS 04 04 04 04 | 04
AR 04 04 04 04 | 04
KS 04 04 04 04 | 04
NE 03 03 03 03 | 03
UT 03 04 04 04 | 04

NV 03 04 04 04 | 04
NM 03 03 03 03 | 03
WV 03 03 02 02 | 02
I D 02 02 02 02 | 02
H I 02 02 02 02 | 02

ME 02 02 02 02 | 02
NH 02 02 02 02 | 02
R I 02 02 01 01 | 01
MT 01 01 01 02 | 01 | 02
DE 01 01 01 01 | 01

SD 01 01 01 01 | 01
AK 01 01 01 01 | 01
ND 01 01 01 01 | 01
VT 01 01 01 01 | 01
WY 01 01 01 01 | 01


So the answer might be no. The closest to regaining seats are MO and IA. Even if CA drops 7 seats, other States will either gain a Seat or retain one on the verge of loss.


Something I wonder about NY, IL, PA, MI: are they losing population from the Cities and cesspools, or from the real communities?


Also, being in WI, I notice MN, MI, IA, IL are losing Seats. Hmmmm. WI and IN did lose a Seat in 2000.

Something I didn't really point out: one-time events do not help the accuracy of extrapolating Projection, so if Alabama does not suffer another catastrophic hurricane before the Census, it might not lose a Seat, and then CA would lose 1.
Regarding the new info from Van Lines Study, doesn't seem to greatly change the projections. OR is not in danger of gaining a Seat this decade, nor VT. The States on the verge of gaining or losing a Seat remain CA and MT. KS keeps churning out offspring, so is unlikely to lose a Seat - there are at least 17 other States more likely to drop a Seat before getting to KS.

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Friday, January 18, 2019 8:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Does Tax on "grocery" (aka unprepared food) still vary from County to County? I knew many States have different levels of Taxation on necessities, but I had assumed it was Statewide, yes or no. Hadn't really paid attention. I do believe WI is all Counties the same, no Tax on "grocery" and that rule unchanged for many Decades.



The article I read just before making that edit said that the "grocery" tax varies from area to area based off of what the local taxes on the unprepared food was. The only constant was that the state itself only charged 1% on unprepared food, but the local (county/city) taxes could raise it the same 4.75% that they can raise the sales tax on any other goods.

Actually, you answered a question of mine without me even asking it. I was wondering if the 0% tax on food was state-wide or if I just lucked out when I lived there. Good to hear they don't tax it anywhere there.

Quote:

This is another example of local representation, rules made by the State, which supports State's Rights, not subject to Federal Regs. The people of the State decide/vote how they want to be screwed.


Yep. Another example would be how when the state of Indiana made the Constitutional amendment to cap the property tax at 1%, they did see an increase in the overall sales tax at the same time. (I'm not sure what it was before that, as this all happened before I moved out here). It didn't faze me to pay 7%. That's actually the amount that sales taxes were the entire time I lived in Illinois growing up. It was only after I moved out that they raised them.

Illinois is broke. Their sugar drink tax backfired miserably, and was made even worse when people on food stamps didn't have to pay the tax when it's ridiculous that you can even by Pepsi with something that has "Nutritional" in the acronym. It's not at all surprising that they haven't removed soda like they did cigarettes and alcohol when you know that 10% of all grocery store purchases are made on food stamps and our politician's Overlords at the CocaCola company and PepsiCo would frown heavily upon that.

Now they're looking to either raise the vehicle license plate yearly fee by $500 or put a 30 cent increase on gas taxes to replace it.


Quote:

This is an important factor in some discussions of switching from Federal Income Tax to Consumption Tax. What would the Tax be applied to, what Consumption? Well, obviously, whatever the prevailing rules on Taxation were for each State. If State includes basic necessities like grocery in it's Tax Base, then the Consumption Tax would apply to that, for that State. This also makes the local or State level Elected Official more responsive to the Voter - you don't like paying 15% Consumption Tax on your grocery, you need to straighten out your State Legislature, vote in somebody with sense.


I'd be on board with that. But that's really easy for me to say. Other than food, I don't consume all that much. I made $12,500 last year (gross) and put around $6,000 of it in the bank. If I were to have avoided paying any income tax or sales tax on 90% of my purchases, I would probably have banked close to another $1,000. Add around another $1,000 if I didn't have to pay social security on any of it.


Quote:

If the expenditures of poor folk such as grocery, bare housing, bare medical, basic education, mass transit are rendered untaxable, then truly poor folk become essentially untaxed. And if they feel the urgent need to be Taxed, they can purchase a Luxury Item, and pay the Tax just like anybody else.


100% in agreement here.

It's one of the things I really appreciate about the vehicle tax and how that's set up in Indiana. If somebody wants to buy a brand new Toyota, they offset my property taxes by paying nearly $600 for their license that first year and it's pretty hefty the first 3-4 years after that too. Meanwhile, I'll drive my late 90's model Toyota and pay only $46 bucks, thank you very much.

Regarding "education" that is taken out of property taxes... I wouldn't go so far as to say that I should pay nothing, because I do agree that good schools in the neighborhood are an important part of keeping a good neighborhood. However, I do believe that my cost for them should be somewhat subsidized by people who actually have children currently in school or who have previously. These people are already getting tax breaks (most likely) for being married, as well as for the children themselves when they file their income taxes.

Quote:

If the State deems an item or category as Taxable, then that would be the rule for the Federal Government to apply the Consumption Tax. This makes the collection system truly piggyback - just include the Consumption Tax on each item already being processed with an existing Tax, no need for any monstrosity of administration to collect with - and IRS can wither away, not just shift function. And the IRS Budget and expense goes away, for even more Taxpayer's saving.


Sign me up.




Quote:

Anyway, back to second's claims. Do you see how the numbers he is claiming are really represented in the way you have laid out the actual numbers for IL and IN? Or are his numbers complete Manure? I cannot reconcile his numbers with any known reality, didn't know if you could.


I dunno what he's talking about. I figure he must have lived in Texas all of his life and he thinks the whole thing is done exactly the same, state by state. At least that's what I read.

It's obviously not the case, as I've laid it out.

I can't speak for the rest of Indiana, but we've got it pretty sweet up here in NWI. My town is literally a carbon copy of any town I've lived in, which were all suburbs of either Chicago or Milwaukee.

Since I have absolutely no desire to ever step foot in Chicago again, the fact that I live 30 extra minutes from the big city but pay a fraction of the property taxes I would pay on the same house if I was in Illinois bears no negative impact on my life. And because of all the other taxes in the world being cheaper here save for alcohol taxes are huge perks too.

Oh... and now that I'm sober, I don't have to waste all that gas driving to Illinois to get cheap beer either.


EDIT: Well... the one negative impact in my life for the tax savings is that I'm pretty far away from my niece and I don't get to see her nearly as much as I'd like to. But I am leaning heavily on them to move out here using the tax angle. :)

If I can get my transmission problem fixed this spring, that will be moot. I'd gladly pay the extra gas to go out and visit them every week when my car is more reliable.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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