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Democrats shouldn’t plan their 2028 victory parties just yet

All this said, the outcomes of off-year gubernatorial elections are not a reliable guide to future political developments. A lot can happen between now and the midterms (let alone, between now and 2028).

Further — precisely because Democrats now have an advantage in lower turnout elections — Tuesday’s events might paint a misleadingly favorable picture of the party’s long-term prospects. When Democrats dominated 2023’s special elections, many in the party concluded that it was on track to beat Trump the following year. But this proved to be a mistake. The subset of voters who bothered showing up for off-year elections were simply much more Democratic than the electorate as a whole.

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