Guess-timation. by bikisdad

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Guess-timation.

POSTED BY: BIKISDAD
UPDATED: Monday, May 9, 2005 08:11
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Monday, May 9, 2005 8:11 AM

This thread is mainly for the closet accounting geeks among us (if there are any besides me).

I was just doing a little speculating as to the potential box office for "Serenity". There's been some talk on other threads about how our BDM will be a better film than the latest Star Wars installment, but won't come anywhere near the BO, as Joss puts it. Well, here are some, what I think are, really conservative estimates for what the BDM might bring in:

The original series had (per F*X) between 2 and 4 million viewers. I think we can conservatively say that that number has at least doubled since the dvds came out; so say 4 to 8 million current fans will see the movie. Many of us plan to see it many more times than once, but I'll conservatively say that we'll all see it twice. At an average ticket price of about $8, that yields a BO of between $64 million and $128 million.

Now, keep in mind, that doesn't count all the money from eventual dvd sales, from ticket sales in foreign countries (where hardly anyone had even heard of Firefly until after it was cancelled), or from ticket sales to all the poor, ignorant people who still haven't been enlightened about the Firefly 'verse, but who will be between now and September 30th (if we all continue our word-of-mouth marketing).

If I was a Universal exec, I'd have Joss start working on those scripts for the sequels NOW. (That's a hint to any Universal movie people who might happen across this post).

Anyway, those are my, what I consider, conservative estimates.

Questions? Comments? Does anybody give a flying fig at this point?

Apathy on the Rise. No One Cares.

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