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Originally posted by 1kiki:
Granted, this is about polling. Given that:

In December 2017 people were talking about a 'blue wave'
The Democrats' Wave Could Turn Into A Flood | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-int
o-a-flood/
Dec 22, 2017

A mere two months later, the blue wave failed to majestically sweep the extant elections
What Happened To The Democratic Wave? | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-the-democratic-w
ave/
Feb 1, 2018

Yesterday, CNN described it as a trickle
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blu
e-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html
For Dems, 'blue wave' is now a trickle
Updated 3:34 AM ET, Fri May 11, 2018



I've been harping on this since the early days of the Hillary campaign. The dems are clueless about coming up with an economic message for the vast majority of people who've been in economic distress for far too long.

Bill said it best "It's the economy, stupid". Then the dems forgot and decided they should focus on 'demographics'.

So anyway ... anyone up for a rational, fact-based, and civil discussion about the topic?

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How about you JSF? Any insight into Wisconsin?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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I did in the OP.
Lesbian Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her Senate Seat. In 2012 that race was lost in the GOP Primary. Solid Conservative Leah Vukmir is expected to win. Pity losing her as State Senator because it has been difficult filling her seat with reasonable candidates, near Milwaukee.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Good. My property taxes went up 20% last year, and 90% of that rise was for education.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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I am not really familiar with your exact location, but I tend to assume that statement is not technically correct.

For the vast majority of instances, "education" is the excuse given, but the actual cause is Union Pay Raises for incompetent teachers. This is often disguised by neglected buildings maintenance, expansion, other failed budgeting in lieu of wasting more funds on teachers instead of having a simple balanced Budget.
I don't believe it is actually "education" but just more wasted cash funneled to Unions.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How about you JSF? Any insight into Wisconsin?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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I did in the OP.
Lesbian Tammy Baldwin is expected to lose her Senate Seat. In 2012 that race was lost in the GOP Primary. Solid Conservative Leah Vukmir is expected to win. Pity losing her as State Senator because it has been difficult filling her seat with reasonable candidates, near Milwaukee.

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Today Leah Vukmir was endorsed by the WI GOP at their Convention, with 72% of the polling.

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Originally posted by 1kiki:
This is not about any specific races. And as we have seen, polls need to be considered with very, VERY large caveats.

However -

Reuters Poll: Republicans Lead Generic Ballot for First Time in 2018 ...
National Review-May 22, 2018

The case against Democrats winning back the House
CNN-May 25, 2018

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I consider myself to be a pretty non-partisan bellweather. And I'm just about as fed up with Trump's chaotic antics as I am with democrat's conniving. So this item was surprising.

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SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).

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Originally posted by 1kiki:
"Are you suggesting you believed the propaganda prior to today?"

No.

As I mentioned many, many, many times, I didn't vote for Trump. I voted against Hillary. And I was hoping Trump would normalize relations with our nuclear equal. But the fact that Trump seemed to stand against the Deep State, and also stand against international business running our policies, were points in his favor.

However, he seems to have lost his way. It's starting to look like he's caved to the Deep State and international corporations. Though maybe it was too much to expect one man to stand against a 50 year old behemoth. In any case, I've tired of antics and would like to see some substance.

That's why the Reuters poll surprised me. I assume I'm about on track with a lot of people. Apparently not.

Maybe they're just coming to the point I got to a while ago about the DNI, FBI, CIA, NSA, and DNC. And the dems are starting to look worse and worse to more people, which means, in relative terms, republicans are doing better.

SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).

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Originally posted by 1kiki:
Not expecting. Just observing how the coverage has been changing.

My state is California, which is so blue it bleeds blue.

My contention - since the democratic primaries - was the Hillary was a weak candidate, with a lot of baggage. Since the election, my contention has been that Trump was elected specifically because he was promising something different. And that the democrats needed to get off their fat, donor-bloated, 'demographics' shaped asses, and start coming up with policies that reflected people's economic concerns. I also contended that the democrats were trying to hide behind the 'RUSSIA' campaign to un-elect Trump, as a smokescreen for their inability to do anything helpful for the voter at the national level.

To my surprise, though in an unexpected way, this analysis seems to be coming true. I think the democrats are now linked to 'dirty tricks' played by the intelligence community and the Hillary campaign, and they're experiencing blowback.

In terms of expectations, I still believe that Trump needs to come up with a clear-cut accomplishment. People are fickle.

SECOND is a troll because it constantly misrepresents what people post, fails to address their actual positions, and resorts to personal attacks when its brain isn't working (which is most of the time).

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Originally posted by 1kiki:
And the dems are starting to look worse and worse to more people, which means, in relative terms, republicans are doing better.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election.

It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions.


The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats.




SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.
8 REPUBLICAN
3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R.
WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change.
Nevada could be a tossup.


24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement.
14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA
4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI
6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV


2 INDEPENDENT
Maine - might be tossup
Vermont - expected to remain Sanders.


So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count.


HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant.
Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats.


What particular races do you find interesting?


So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?

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Summary so far:
Cheri Bustos D-IL is likely to flip seat to GOP.
Texas likely to stay GOP Senator, and 36 Reps remain same Party - with 23, 25, 32 closest to flipping.
Missouri has both Senate seats to be elected in November.
Pennsylvania's 18 seats likely to either stay 13-5 ratio for GOP, or change to 11-7.
Got it.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Some Primaries were held yesterday, including the Jungle Primary in CA.
Dems were trying to Primary some Republican seats, not sure if they succeeded.

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
Democrats just won a Wisconsin special election Scott Walker didn’t want to have
It’s another round of big wins for Democrats in the Badger State.

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17455922/wisconsin-special-elections-res
ults-june

"Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years."

Thought I'd ruin your fantasy with some actual facts. You hate facts. They always prove you wrong.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Breakout of 51 Reps not running for reelection of their seats:
16 Dems, 35 GOP.
Retiring: 9 Dems, 23 GOP.
Running for Gov: 4 Dems, 5 GOP.
Running for Sen: 3 Dems, 7 GOP.



Context: in 2016 Hilliary took CO, MN, IL, WA, CA, OR, NV, NM, VA, HI, MD, DE, NJ, NY, NH, VT, ME, RI, CT, MA.

PA could be less predictable, with newly redrawn Districts, and Liberal/Conservative not conforming to norms nor to in-State counterparts.


Summary:
Likely safe Dems: (11)
AZ-9, HI-1, IL-4, MA-3, MD-6, MI-9, MI-13, NM-1, new PA-2, TX-16, TX-29.
Likely safe GOP: (36)
AZ-8, CA-39, CA-49, FL-6, FL-17, FL-27, ID-1, IN-4, IN-6, KS-2, MI-11, MS-3, NJ-2, NJ-11, NM-2, OH-12, OH-16, OK-1, new PA-5, new PA-7, new PA-9, new PA-11, new PA-14, SC-4, SDAL, TN-2, TN -6, TN-7, TX-2, TX-3, TX-5, TX-6, TX-21, TX-27, VA-6, WA-8, WV-3.
Likely flip to GOP:
NH-1, NV-3, NV-4, (3)
PPossible flip to GOP:
MN-1, MN-8, (2)

Dems need to gain 24 seats from GOP to take House Majority.

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I filled in the info for the post of incumbents not running, and reposted the summary here.

I had not noticed that NV-4 is actually a rematch of 2014. Barring Primary upset on June 12, the candidates will be the same 2.

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases

Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases

Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.

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Bill Clinton temporarily boosted the economy by selling us long term to China's interests.

GWB oversaw oil prices double early in his presidency, and then the housing bubble crash and the derivatives crash in the DOW that were both an inevitable collapse from a system designed to benefit the rich at the cost of the rest of us.

Obama completely destroyed the long term value of the dollar by instituting quantitative easing.

Runaway inflation is the long term effect of quantitative easing.

Buckle up, buttercup. This ride has only just begun.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to Six-Year High, Eroding Wages

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-si
x-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases

Obama saved the economy from Bush's failed presidency. Trump is doing what Bush did, and we're going to be the ones left holding the bag.

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Bill Clinton temporarily boosted the economy by selling us long term to China's interests.

GWB oversaw oil prices double early in his presidency, and then the housing bubble crash and the derivatives crash in the DOW that were both an inevitable collapse from a system designed to benefit the rich at the cost of the rest of us.

Obama completely destroyed the long term value of the dollar by instituting quantitative easing.

Runaway inflation is the long term effect of quantitative easing.

Buckle up, buttercup. This ride has only just begun.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Did you not see the sign? Please don't feed the trolls.
What does this have to do with the thread topic? Or are you second's sockpuppet today?

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Originally posted by reaverfan:

Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Originally posted by JJ:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:

Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

T

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by JJ:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:

Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

T

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Why you haven't started doing it yet then.

I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.

Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by JJ:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

T

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Why you haven't started doing it yet then.

I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.

Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by JJ:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:
Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

T

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Why you haven't started doing it yet then.

I can only imagine that it has to do with the laziness and entitled attitudes that are associated with today's Leftists.

Calling somebody a Nazi or a Commie is not a legitimate argument.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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You whine about Nazi and Hitler. I don't recall you whining about reichwing. Is his your bias showing?

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like a GOP incumbent got Primaried yesterday.
SC-1.

Trump critic and supposed Fiscal Conservative was beat by Trump supporter.

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Originally posted by JJ:

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Originally posted by reaverfan:

Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

T

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

It's obvious I don't care for the Right Wing all that much either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

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The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

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Debunking reichwing lies. Easiest game in town.

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Like and agree

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The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.

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Gonna be hard getting all that egg off your mask the day after Election. Stick your head in a washing machine.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I noticed that the Libtards over at Election Atlas are predicting a 3 Senator gain for Democrats. They usually don't face reality until much closer to the elections.
They even say a phantom Democrat will win a landslide against Gov Walker in WI. LOL.

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I've long predicted a Republican sweep. The blue wave will be cancelled out in a number of ways.

Between the dark money and the Russian interference the Republicans concede, and will not do anything about, the American electoral system is no more effective at rooting out true evil than the Russian.

We are on the brink of becoming the 4th reich. I know that, as a Russian troll, that makes you happy.

As an American who isn't a sociopath and remembers freedom, and things like environmental laws, I think the parasite that is humanity will be rejected by its host, more sooner than later.

When the planet shuts us down, there won't be anything left to fight over.

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Originally posted by REAVERFAN:
The simple truth is lost on these trolls. They have to resort to ad hominems, because they know it's true, and have no argument.

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Originally posted by reaverfan:

Some videos play, some won't.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like some WWE actor won an Election somewhere, maybe TN. As a conservative Republican.


95 days til Mid-terms.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Sounds like some WWE actor won an Election somewhere, maybe TN. As a conservative Republican.


95 days til Mid-terms.

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It was just a mayorial race. Wouldn't have even made the news anywhere if he wasn't a Pro Wrestler.

https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/02/kane-wwe-wrest
ler-glenn-jacobs-wins-knox-county-mayoral-race/851265002/

I never really paid all that much attention to Wrestling, even when I was a kid, but I do vaguely remember the name Kane. He might have even been a Wrestler when it was still the WWF.

EDIT: Yup. Kane joined the WWF in 1995. WWF didn't change their name to WWE until 2002. It looks like the World Wildlife Foundation had agreed to let Vince McMahon use the WWF in America, but not overseas. He blew them off as Wrestling became bigger and in 2002 a UK court ruled against McMahon and instead of fighting it he just changed it to WWE.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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