REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, November 7, 2022 12:17
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Tuesday, April 2, 2019 2:44 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 253 $206 $313 $340 $167
Out19 353 $411 $326 $331 $401
S/D19 -100 -205 --014 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $459 $771 1111 1278
Out19 353 $764 1090 1421 1823
S/D19 -100 -305 --319 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 (969)
%Pj7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035
%Pjt6 -430 --888 --864 1133 --902

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019 3:08 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Reposted for top of the page reference:



And with today's new data:
2019Q1 data downgraded from $233.2 B to $206.9 B, which was the Quarter that the Election was in, ending in December.

The 3rd consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1 (est)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
824.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q1 - only first 3 Quarters
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 8 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 4 periods of 5 full Quarters of Trump are the 4 largest such gains in history.
The past 3 Quarters alone have a greater gain than all but 2 of pre-Trump full 4 Quarter periods.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is reflecting the anti-economy Election of November. This is Trump's 2nd Q1 period, well below his first, now that the steam has dissipated by the Election results.
Next report 26 April.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019 5:20 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Are these figures in inflation-adjusted (constant) dollars? Sorry if I've asked in the past and forgotten the answer.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019 12:26 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.
Each of the Agencies that I pull data from has refinagled their historical data retroactively, but I don't revise the entire table to adapt to the change. I mention in the posts when I see these occur, and I revise some of the past data, to mesh or show trends when it is too conflicting. I have not deleted the posts which have the pre-revised data. I don't know how often they do these historical revisions, I only post about the ones which occurred since the start of each thread.
You can see "new data" notations - I think those changes were last summer, but whenever, I discussed how I treated them. I did need to deal with them, because the data under the existing formulas was discontinued, and I'm not going to make up numbers on my own. For these reasons, much of the older data or older posts contain data no longer available, because the agency has erased from history those figures from the online database.

My intent has always been to use the hard number data, as expressed at that moment in time, in the hope that those historical figures would not change. I try to avoid percentages comingled with the raw numbers, and Seasonally Adjusted nonsense. Those are tools for summary or analysis to be applied to the raw data. I'm not going into the nuts and bolts data, but I strive to use as raw of data as can be reliably obtained.
The Employment Facts data on Initial Jobless Claims is the worst, because I post only the figure of the first reporting, and they vastly revise those numbers a week later, which I do not alter or reflect in my table.


Also, thanks for asking. In the interest of transparency it is important for the numbers and discussion to be clear and commonly understood, and this helps me know if I am being clear enough. Some of my continuing posts have become a mess, and although I periodically clean and prune them a bit, I expect there is still too much that I leave in.


Edit: it looks like with new data GDP, I went back to 2000. The posts prior to 27 July 2018 have the prior version of data.

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Friday, April 5, 2019 9:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updated with today's CBO report, to make do until MTS is released.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $228
Out19 353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $377
S/D19 -100 -205 --014 +$09 --234 --149

Rev19 253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1506
Out19 353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2200
S/D19 -100 -305 --319 --310 --544 --693
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 (969)
%Pj7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035
%Pjt6 -430 --888 --864 1133 --902

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.

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Sunday, April 7, 2019 6:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Budget. Reposted for top of the page reference.

From February.

In May 2018 CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of the PRIOR MONTH, or 7 weeks before.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018, and then Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBODb CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5264 6351 1087 33851 29803 || 5446 6881 32581 29862
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5063 6029 $965 32542 28677 || 5254 6446 31353 28738
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4886 5778 $893 31367 27608 || 4956 6160 30331 27667
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4659 5553 $895 30042 26595 || 4647 5859 29175 26656
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4446 5305 $859 28730 25583 || 4448 5539 28020 25642
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4232 5202 $971 27468 24621 || 4208 5347 26922 24672
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4016 5055 1039 26179 23716 || 4012 5140 25759 23778
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3830 4775 $945 24877 22872 || 3841 4814 24598 22939
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3682 4548 $866 23675 22034 || 3686 4589 23522 22120
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3493 4448 $955 22546 21136 || 3515 4412 22465 21252
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3339 4131 $792 21375 20103 || 3329 4108 21461 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 20206 19178

2029: 5672 7042 33681 31006


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.

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Sunday, April 7, 2019 6:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Budget. Reposted for top of the page reference.

From 8 November.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:


FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~ 779 B $~ 20,985 $20,210.9B $~774 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.
My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Wednesday, April 10, 2019 10:29 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229
Out19 353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376
S/D19 -100 -205 --014 +$09 --234 --147

Rev19 253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507
Out19 353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198
S/D19 -100 -305 --319 --310 --544 --691
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 --897
%Pj7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 --876
%Pjt6 -430 --888 --864 1133 --902 --881

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.

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Thursday, April 11, 2019 1:36 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updated with some 2018 data from CBO.

Budget.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:


FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~1255B $~ 21,461 $~20,236 B $1225 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.
My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Friday, April 26, 2019 11:22 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And with today's new GDP data:
$197.6 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21062.7


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

197.6 FY2019 Q2 (est)
183.4 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
1,021.7 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2 (est)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Next report 30 May.

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Sunday, May 5, 2019 9:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Budget. Future Projections.

Last Thursday, 2 May, CBO again updated their projections to reasonably conform more to reality.
This means they had to revise downward, yet again, the projected Deficit for FY2019 compared to their Libtard exaggerations.
And they had to, yet again, revise downward the projected Deficits and Debt for the next 10 years, instead of sticking with their exaggerations.
Their last downward revision was in January.

They are sticking with the same GDP Projections from Jan, even though they always overestimate GDP during Liberal Administrations and always underestimate GDP during Conservative Administrations.

I'll need to copy over the data.
This does not address the FY2020 Budget, which cuts spending further. It was released by OMB on 11 March, and I neglected to update here.




In May 2018 CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of the PRIOR MONTH, or 7 weeks before.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The new CBO report is from 2 May 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55151
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018, and then Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from May 2019:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBODb CBGDP
2029 8888 8888 888 88888 || 8888 8888 8888 88888 88888 || 5664 6973 33579 31006
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5264 6351 1087 33851 29803 || 5437 6836 32505 29862
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5063 6029 $965 32542 28677 || 5244 6406 31330 28738
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4886 5778 $893 31367 27608 || 4946 6125 30311 27667
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4659 5553 $895 30042 26595 || 4637 5526 29164 26656
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4446 5305 $859 28730 25583 || 4439 5510 28006 25642
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4232 5202 $971 27468 24621 || 4200 5321 26892 24672
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4016 5055 1039 26179 23716 || 4004 5121 25734 23778
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3830 4775 $945 24877 22872 || 3834 4796 24580 22939
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3682 4548 $866 23675 22034 || 3681 4573 23507 22120
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3493 4448 $955 22546 21136 || 3511 4407 22455 21252
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3339 4131 $792 21375 20103 || 3330 4109 21462 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 20206 19178


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from May 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.
For May 2019: CBO had to partly conform to reality, increasing Revenues and GDP, decreasing Deficits and Debts.

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 6:56 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
With huge budget deficits, the Trump administration has implemented the kind of huge fiscal stimulus followers of John Maynard Keynes pleaded for when unemployment was high — but Republicans blocked.

Contrary to what Donald Trump and his supporters claim, we are not seeing an unprecedented boom. The U.S. economy grew 3.2 percent over the past year, a growth rate we haven’t seen since … 2015. Employment has been growing steadily since 2010, with no break in the trend after 2016. Still, the long stretch of growth has pushed the unemployment rate down to levels not seen in decades. How did that happen, and what does it tell us?

The strength of the economy doesn’t reflect a turnaround of the U.S. trade deficit, which remains high. Nor does it reflect a giant boom in business investment, which proponents of the 2017 tax cut promised, but didn’t happen. What’s driving the economy now is, instead, deficit spending.

Economists often use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit — an estimate of what the deficit would be at full employment — as a rough measure of how much fiscal stimulus the government is providing. By that measure, the federal government is now pumping as much money into the economy as it was seven years ago, when the unemployment rate was more than 8 percent.

The explosion of the budget deficit isn’t just a result of that tax cut. After Republicans took control of the House in 2010, they forced the federal government into austerity, squeezing spending despite high unemployment and low borrowing costs. But once Trump was in the White House, spending was suddenly O.K. again (as long as it didn’t help poor people). In particular, real discretionary spending — expenditures other than those on Social Security, Medicare and other safety net programs — has surged after years of decline.

So there’s really no mystery about the economy’s continuing strength: It’s a Keynesian thing. But what do we learn from the experience?

Politically, we’ve learned that the G.O.P. is deeply hypocritical. After all that Obama-era shrieking about the dangers of debt and the looming threat of inflation, the party cheerfully opened the spigots as soon as it had its own man in the White House. You still see news reports that describe prominent Republicans as “deficit hawks,” and puzzle over their relaxed attitude toward the current flood of red ink. Come on, everyone knows what that was all about.

Deficits are apparently good only if they’re incurred giving huge tax breaks to corporations, which use the money to buy back their stock.

So that’s the story of the economy in 2019. Employment is high and unemployment low, because Republicans have embraced the kind of deficit spending they claimed would destroy America when Democrats held power. But none of that spending is building infrastructure to make us stronger in the long run.

www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/opinion/republican-economics.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 11:19 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 12:25 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj


Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 7:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's CBO Report.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234

Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --537
Act19 -100 -305 --318 --310 --544
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897 --897
%Pj8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pj7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 --881 --859 1131 --891

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $534
Out19 353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $373
S/D19 -100 -205 --014 +$09 --234 --147 +161

Rev19 253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2041
Out19 353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2571
S/D19 -100 -305 --319 --310 --544 --691 --531
Projtd -985 -985 --985 --897 --897 --897 --896 --896 --896 --896
%Pj8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 --897 1072 (979)
%Pj7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 --876 1031 (942)
%Pjt6 -430 --888 --864 1133 --902 --881 --880

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 8:23 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj


Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 8:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
With huge budget deficits, the Trump administration has implemented the kind of huge fiscal stimulus followers of John Maynard Keynes pleaded for when unemployment was high — but Republicans blocked.

Contrary to what Donald Trump and his supporters claim, we are not seeing an unprecedented boom. The U.S. economy grew 3.2 percent over the past year, a growth rate we haven’t seen since … 2015. Employment has been growing steadily since 2010, with no break in the trend after 2016. Still, the long stretch of growth has pushed the unemployment rate down to levels not seen in decades. How did that happen, and what does it tell us?

The strength of the economy doesn’t reflect a turnaround of the U.S. trade deficit, which remains high. Nor does it reflect a giant boom in business investment, which proponents of the 2017 tax cut promised, but didn’t happen. What’s driving the economy now is, instead, deficit spending.

Economists often use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit — an estimate of what the deficit would be at full employment — as a rough measure of how much fiscal stimulus the government is providing. By that measure, the federal government is now pumping as much money into the economy as it was seven years ago, when the unemployment rate was more than 8 percent.

The explosion of the budget deficit isn’t just a result of that tax cut. After Republicans took control of the House in 2010, they forced the federal government into austerity, squeezing spending despite high unemployment and low borrowing costs. But once Trump was in the White House, spending was suddenly O.K. again (as long as it didn’t help poor people). In particular, real discretionary spending — expenditures other than those on Social Security, Medicare and other safety net programs — has surged after years of decline.

So there’s really no mystery about the economy’s continuing strength: It’s a Keynesian thing. But what do we learn from the experience?

Politically, we’ve learned that the G.O.P. is deeply hypocritical. After all that Obama-era shrieking about the dangers of debt and the looming threat of inflation, the party cheerfully opened the spigots as soon as it had its own man in the White House. You still see news reports that describe prominent Republicans as “deficit hawks,” and puzzle over their relaxed attitude toward the current flood of red ink. Come on, everyone knows what that was all about.

Deficits are apparently good only if they’re incurred giving huge tax breaks to corporations, which use the money to buy back their stock.

So that’s the story of the economy in 2019. Employment is high and unemployment low, because Republicans have embraced the kind of deficit spending they claimed would destroy America when Democrats held power. But none of that spending is building infrastructure to make us stronger in the long run.

www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/opinion/republican-economics.html
Or this manure?

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019 8:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Post under construction.




Budget. Trump's FY2020, with forecasting and projections to 2029

From 11 March 2019, Office of Management and Budget.


The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections. This is in the middle section.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019, and then Trump's FY2020 Budget and Projections from OMB on 11 March 2019.

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || Rvnu Outl Defct FdGFD NtGDP
2029 8888 8888 888 88888 || 5672 7042 1370 33681 31006 || 6292 6495 0202 31506 34727
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5446 6881 1435 32581 29862 || 5939 6447 0508 31195 33116
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5254 6446 1192 31353 28738 || 5608 6122 0513 30695 31580
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4956 6160 1204 30331 27667 || 5323 5899 0577 30128 30116
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4647 5859 1212 29175 26656 || 5040 5671 0631 29386 28700
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4448 5539 1091 28020 25642 || 4753 5453 0700 28582 27326
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4208 5347 1139 26922 24672 || 4421 5330 0909 27645 26007
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5140 1128 25759 23778 || 4129 5177 1049 26544 24753
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3841 4814 0973 24598 22939 || 3877 4945 1068 25333 23558
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3686 4589 0903 23522 22120 || 3645 4746 1101 24057 22410
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3515 4412 0897 22465 21252 || 3438 4529 1092 22776 21289
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3329 4108 0779 21461 20236 || 3330 4109 0779 21462 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 ||


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.
For FY2020: As usual, this shows Conservatives underestimate Revenues and GDP, and overestimate spending, Deficits, and Debts. While Liberals like CBO do the opposite.

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 6:31 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
JewelStaiteFan, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says you are wrong, as usual:

Trump has a $1.2 Trillion larger budget per year than Obama. For years, Obama had the same amount, with no raises. Trump gets a raise every year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj

Government total expenditures, Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

2010-01-01 5820.399
2010-04-01 5862.866
2010-07-01 5811.144
2010-10-01 5839.370
2011-01-01 5859.500
2011-04-01 5918.370
2011-07-01 5837.918
2011-10-01 5872.701
2012-01-01 5834.960
2012-04-01 5831.685
2012-07-01 5801.406
2012-10-01 5901.705
2013-01-01 5832.062
2013-04-01 5848.976
2013-07-01 5867.311
2013-10-01 5868.146 This is how much Obama spent per year

2019-01-01 7092.825 This is how much Trump spends per year: $1.2 Trillion more.

That extra $1.2 Trillion Trump has explains the difference with Obama.

The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is responsible for advising the Bank president on matters of economic policy. The Division monitors the economic and financial literature and produces research in the areas of money and banking, macroeconomics, and international and regional economics.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/about.html

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj


Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 9:10 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj


Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
crickets?

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 9:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

crickets?
JewelStaiteFan, the crickets applaud you for all your work at rewriting/faking the entire budget history of the United States in order to make Trump look good in comparison to Obama. In the real budget, Trump has $1.2 Trillion per year more to spend than Obama, and yet Trump still can't find money for his Texas/Mexico Wall. I am thinking Trump wants to loudly keep complaining about Mexico rather than building the Wall. He is more talk and less do.

Remember this story from October?

Trump threatens to close US-Mexico border over Honduran migrant caravan

Trump also threatened to deploy the military to stop caravan which plans to head through Mexico toward the US border. I look forward to Trump stopping talking and starting invading Mexico to halt the caravans. But talk is much cheaper than action.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/18/trump-threatens-to-close-us-me
xico-border-over-migrant-caravan

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 9:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj


Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
Nobody?
Just confirming.

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 10:09 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Nobody?
Just confirming.
I know plenty of Republicans. None of them would read with understanding the entire federal budget. They would not even be interested in just a portion of it, the military budget.

America’s Defense Budget Is Bigger Than You Think
www.thenation.com/article/tom-dispatch-america-defense-budget-bigger-t
han-you-think/

Final tally: $1.2542 trillion

So our final annual tally for war, preparations for war, and the impact of war comes to more than $1.25 trillion, more than double the Pentagon’s base budget. If the average taxpayer were aware that this amount was being spent in the name of national defense, it might be far harder for the national-security state to consume ever-growing sums with minimal public pushback.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 11:12 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with some 2018 data from Treasury.

Budget.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:


FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
2018 $3329.9B $4109.0B $779.1B || 1256.6B $21,462.3 $~20,236 B $1226 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.
My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.
The Treasury did report that the percentage of Federal Debt owned by Foreigners dropped drastically in 2018, after a decade long trend the opposite way.

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Thursday, May 9, 2019 9:26 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Post under construction.




Budget. CBO Analysis of Trump's FY2020 Budget.
CBO did not include any changes to the Gross Federal Debt.


Trump's FY2020 Budget, with forecasting and projections to 2029.

From 11 March 2019, Office of Management and Budget.


The new CBO report is from May 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55195
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2020, and then the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from May 2019, and then Trump's FY2020 Budget and Projections from OMB on 11 March 2019.

Year Revnu Outl Defct NtGFD NtGDP || CBOR CBOt CBOD CBGDP
2029 6292 6495 0202 31506 34727 || 5389 6408 1019 31006
2028 5939 6447 0508 31195 33116 || 5173 6341 1168 29862
2027 5608 6122 0513 30695 31580 || 5000 6015 1015 28738
2026 5323 5899 0577 30128 30116 || 4846 5784 0938 27667
2025 5040 5671 0631 29386 28700 || 4629 5566 0937 26656
2024 4753 5453 0700 28582 27326 || 4438 5327 0889 25642
2023 4421 5330 0909 27645 26007 || 4199 5210 1010 24672
2022 4129 5177 1049 26544 24753 || 4006 5079 1073 23778
2021 3877 4945 1068 25333 23558 || 3837 4759 0921 22939
2020 3645 4746 1101 24057 22410 || 3686 4652 0966 22120
2019 3438 4529 1092 22776 21289 || 3438 4529 1092 21289
2018 3330 4109 0779 21462 20236 || 3330 4109 0779 20236



In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.
For FY2020: As usual, this shows Conservatives underestimate Revenues and GDP, and overestimate spending, Deficits, and Debts. While Liberals like CBO do the opposite.

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Friday, May 10, 2019 4:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.

I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -6$2 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 (979)
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 (942)
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Thursday, May 30, 2019 6:12 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


And with today's new GDP data:
$183.7 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21048.8


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.7 FY2019 Q2 (est)
183.4 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
1,007.8 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2 (est)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.

Next report 27 June.

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Friday, June 7, 2019 5:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


CBO has a new Director starting this month. Apparently they celebrated by not posting the scheduled Update today.

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Monday, June 10, 2019 6:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




Updated with the most recent CBO Update. It was not available Friday after CoB, it was available Saturday evening, and it was dated Friday 7 June.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -6$2 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $231
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $438
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -207

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2274
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3011
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -738
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1141
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1066

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Monday, June 10, 2019 6:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Double posty.

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019 6:08 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -6$2 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 (995)

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Thursday, June 13, 2019 11:16 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The U.S. budget deficit widened to $738.6 billion in the first eight months of the fiscal year, a $206 billion increase from a year earlier, despite a revenue boost from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported merchandise.

The shortfall was 38.8% more than the same period a year ago, the Treasury Department said in its monthly budget review released on Wednesday.

There are 4 months left in the fiscal year, therefore Trump will easily spend a trillion dollars more in 2019 than he has money to spend. If he can't keep under $trillion deficit when times are good, what will happen when times go bad for Trump?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/u-s-budget-gap-hits-739-bil
lion-with-four-months-left-in-year

See Figure 2 on page 4 of Trump's Treasury Department Report https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0519.pdf

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, June 13, 2019 5:29 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
The U.S. budget deficit widened to $738.6 billion in the first eight months of the fiscal year, a $206 billion increase from a year earlier, despite a revenue boost from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported merchandise.

The shortfall was 38.8% more than the same period a year ago, the Treasury Department said in its monthly budget review released on Wednesday.

There are 4 months left in the fiscal year, therefore Trump will easily spend a trillion dollars more in 2019 than he has money to spend. If he can't keep under $trillion deficit when times are good, what will happen when times go bad for Trump?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/u-s-budget-gap-hits-739-bil
lion-with-four-months-left-in-year

See Figure 2 on page 4 of Trump's Treasury Department Report https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0519.pdf
Kind of shocking that you were able to post the same figures that I posted. Didn't know you could read.

The CBO also pointed out that the $739B includes about $50B in extra Outlays due to timing shifts of payments. June 1st landed on a Saturday, so those payments had to be made on 31 May. Last year those extra June payments were not added to the May Outlays.

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Tuesday, June 25, 2019 8:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


New Report today from CBO: Long Term Outlook for the Budget.

www.cbo.gov/publications/55331

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Thursday, June 27, 2019 5:14 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And with today's new GDP data:
$195.0 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21060.1


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2


195.0 FY2019 Q2 (est)
183.4 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
1,019.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2 (est)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.

Next report 26 July.

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Monday, July 8, 2019 8:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's CBO.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -746
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 (995)

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Tuesday, July 9, 2019 9:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump increased the National Debt by $2 trillion to $22 trillion. This happened while he bragged about how great the economy was. If the economy really was so great and he was collecting all the taxes that were due, but people cheated on, the Debt would be decreasing, not increasing. Even worse, when the economy eventually becomes less and less great than it is now, the Debt will increase faster and faster. Donald is doing a hell of a job.

www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=01&startDay=19&am
p;startYear=2017&endMonth=07&endDay=08&endYear=2019

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 5:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted:
Trump increased the National Debt by $2 trillion to $22 trillion. This happened while he bragged about how great the economy was. If the economy really was so great and he was collecting all the taxes that were due, but people cheated on, the Debt would be decreasing, not increasing. Even worse, when the economy eventually becomes less and less great than it is now, the Debt will increase faster and faster. Donald is doing a hell of a job.

www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=01&startDay=19&am
p;startYear=2017&endMonth=07&endDay=08&endYear=2019
Yes, the projections under the Obama/Hilliary dismal plan were to have the Debt increase 2.5 Trillion by now. Plus continue the horrendous Economy that they mastered.

I am sure everybody is dismayed that Trump has not increased the Debt at the rate expected by Libtard bodies that the Dems would have.

Not to mention that extra windfall they we'll be getting from the Tax Reform package.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 7:14 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted:
Trump increased the National Debt by $2 trillion to $22 trillion. This happened while he bragged about how great the economy was. If the economy really was so great and he was collecting all the taxes that were due, but people cheated on, the Debt would be decreasing, not increasing. Even worse, when the economy eventually becomes less and less great than it is now, the Debt will increase faster and faster. Donald is doing a hell of a job.

www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=01&startDay=19&am
p;startYear=2017&endMonth=07&endDay=08&endYear=2019
Yes, the projections under the Obama/Hilliary dismal plan were to have the Debt increase 2.5 Trillion by now. Plus continue the horrendous Economy that they mastered.

I am sure everybody is dismayed that Trump has not increased the Debt at the rate expected by Libtard bodies that the Dems would have.

Not to mention that extra windfall they we'll be getting from the Tax Reform package.
That is the dumbest argument. Trump increased the National Debt by $2 Trillion but Hillary might have, maybe, gone to $2.5 Trillion. Then again, maybe she could not because Hillary would not sign the Tax Cut that Trump signed, the one that is predicted to increase the National Debt by $1 Trillion per year from here to Eternity. Good job, Donald! Hillary couldn't have done it!
www.businessinsider.com/us-budget-deficit-779-billion-highest-since-20
12-2018-10

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 7:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted:
Trump increased the National Debt by $2 trillion to $22 trillion. This happened while he bragged about how great the economy was. If the economy really was so great and he was collecting all the taxes that were due, but people cheated on, the Debt would be decreasing, not increasing. Even worse, when the economy eventually becomes less and less great than it is now, the Debt will increase faster and faster. Donald is doing a hell of a job.

www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=01&startDay=19&am
p;startYear=2017&endMonth=07&endDay=08&endYear=2019
Yes, the projections under the Obama/Hilliary dismal plan were to have the Debt increase 2.5 Trillion by now. Plus continue the horrendous Economy that they mastered.

I am sure everybody is dismayed that Trump has not increased the Debt at the rate expected by Libtard bodies that the Dems would have.

Not to mention that extra windfall they we'll be getting from the Tax Reform package.
That is the dumbest argument. Trump increased the National Debt by $2 Trillion but Hillary might have, maybe, gone to $2.5 Trillion. Then again, maybe she could not because Hillary would not sign the Tax Cut that Trump signed, the one that is predicted to increase the National Debt by $1 Trillion per year from here to Eternity. Good job, Donald! Hillary couldn't have done it!
www.businessinsider.com/us-budget-deficit-779-billion-highest-since-20
12-2018-10
You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years.
The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 9:24 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years.
The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.
JewelStaiteFan, show me that fake news story with the $1 Trillion savings. I got stories that say there are no savings:

Many taxpayers have reported that their tax bill is higher or their refund check is lower than last year, even though their financial circumstances haven't changed since filing with the IRS in 2018. Many tax specialists and accountants are now urging their clients to update their withholdings in preparation for next year's tax season. The way to update your withholdings is to fill out IRS form W-4 and submit to your payroll department.

How did this happen? Let's take a closer look at President Trump's changes to the tax code — the largest overhaul made in the last 30 years — and how it stands to impact taxpayers and business owners.

www.investopedia.com/taxes/trumps-tax-reform-plan-explained/

1) The promise: Tax cuts will pay for themselves
“We are totally confident this is a revenue-neutral bill and probably a revenue producer.”
— Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Dec. 3, 2017
FALSE

2) The promise: Corporations will boost wages and families will get an average pay increase of $4,000 to $9,000
“I would expect to see an immediate jump in wage growth.”
— Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett, Oct. 16, 2017
FALSE

3) The promise: The wealthy won't benefit
“The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan.” – President Donald Trump, Sept. 13, 2017
FALSE

4) The promise: The middle class will be the biggest beneficiaries
“Our framework ensures that the benefits of tax reform go to the middle class, not to the highest earners.” – President Donald Trump, Oct. 11, 2017
FALSE

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tax-plan-consequences/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, July 11, 2019 7:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years.
The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.
JewelStaiteFan, show me that fake news story with the $1 Trillion savings. I got stories that say there are no savings:




The Fake News story from the Deep State CBO:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61505&mid=10534
14#1053414


Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.


The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,735 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,222 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,780 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,386 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,033 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,738 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,502 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,327 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,200 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,025B $6,163B $138B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,710B $5,939B $230B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,430B $5,733B $303B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,145B $5,514B $368B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,875B $5,337B $461B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,555B $5,151B $596B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,265B $4,934B $669B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,980B $4,749B $769B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,730B $4,592B $862B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,542B $4,406B $863B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $1.996 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX



$13.888 minus $11.033 equals $2.855 Trillion in savings, reduction of Debt.
The preceding/underlying $7 Trillion is the Legacy costs and increases from Obamanomics.

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Thursday, July 11, 2019 11:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

The preceding/underlying $7 Trillion is the Legacy costs and increases from Obamanomics.
During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump promised he would "eliminate" the nation’s debt in eight years. "Eliminate". Did you see that word? That means zero.
www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

Instead, his budgets would add $9.1 trillion during that time. It would increase the U.S. debt to $29 trillion according to Trump's own budget estimates from the White House, not from Congress, not from the Treasury, but from the White House. That is a very poor showing, especially when the economy is booming. Trump can't make his outlays less than or equal to his receipts. So sad. So incompetent.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf

We know that $500 billion in taxes are not collected each year. That would go at least halfway to keeping the National Debt from increasing, but only if Donald will collect the money owed. He has not tried for the last 2 years to collect so we won't see him trying in the next 6 years. But he could, if he wanted to! I look forward to Donald sharing his tax returns with the public to encourage Americans to not cheat on taxes. He doesn't cheat and he will prove it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_in_the_United_States#Estimat
es_of_lost_government_revenue

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, July 15, 2019 2:24 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote of the Day: Spend, Spend, Spend

From Mitch McConnell, advising President Trump on deficit reduction:

Mulvaney and Vought, among others, have sought to convince Trump to care more about cutting spending and the deficit. But Trump has rebuffed many of their proposed cuts as deficits soar. Trump recently told West Wing aides that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told him no politician had ever lost office for spending more money. Two people with direct knowledge confirmed that McConnell delivered that message in a June phone call about budget sequestration.

This confirms that Republicans are the party of fiscal irresponsibility.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/his-own-fiefdom-mulvaney-builds-an-emp
ire-for-the-right-wing-as-trumps-chief-of-staff/2019/07/14/85c5ebdc-942b-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, July 26, 2019 2:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.

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Friday, August 9, 2019 5:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.
The CY Q1 increase of 201.0 could be wrong - and is certainly not the same as the 195.0 figure from the last month's report.
The CY Q2 increase of 239.1 Billion could be wrong.
The CY Q2 total level of 21.34 Trillion could be wrong.
At least one of these 3 is certainly wrong, and perhaps more than one of them is incorrect.

The 26 July Release and Tables:
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-07/gdp2q19_adv_1.pdf
Current Dollar GDP, Calendar Year Quarters:
First Quarter was 201.0
Second Quarter was $239.1 Billion. Total of $21.34 Trillion.


27 June:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-201
9-third-estimate-corporate-profits-first-quarter
Fourth Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 195.0, to a level of $21.06 Trillion.


30 May:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2019-
second-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter
Fourht Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 183.7, to a level of 21.05.


26 April:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2019-
advance-estimate
Fourth Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 197.6, to a leel of 21.06 Trillion.



FY Q1 (Calendar Year Q4) was already up to a level of $20.8651 Trillion. Due to cumulative rounding over the months, this figure technically could be off by as much as 5 Billion. But let us go with what we've been given.

With the Advance Estimate of FY Q2 at 197.6, this adds up to 21.0627 and rounds to 21.06 T. This could be in the range of 21.0550 to 21.0649 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8574 to 20.8673)

With the Second Estimate of FY Q2 at 183.7, this adds up to 21.0488 and rounds to 21.05 T. This could be in the range of 21.0450 to 21.0549 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8613 to 20.8712. Along with the previous month's restrictions, Q1 could have been 20.8613 to 20.8673)

With the Third Estimate of FY Q2 at 195.0, this adds up to 21.0601 and rounds to 21.06 T. This could be in the range of 21.0550 to 21.0649 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8600 to 20.8699 - and the prior range is already more restrictive than this range.)

With this month's report of FY Q2 at 201.0 the total would add to 21.0661 but could still roam the range of 21.0623 to 21.0683 based on the prior months of information. However, no subtotal of rounding was provided, so this amount of 201.0 could be incorrect.

With this month's report of FY Q3 at 239.1 increase, the total would add to 21.3052 by calculation, and also roam the range of 21.3014 to 21.3074 (which would round to either 21.30 or 21.31) - which is not what was reported.

With this month's report of FY Q3 Total level of $21.34 Trillion, the FY Q3 Increase which would have been needed to achieve that would be about 274 Billion added to the prior 21.0661 Trillion level.

At this point a guess would need to be made about where the BEA errors are in their reporting.
Based upon the past years trends, the much more in-line increase for Q3 would be the one around 274 Billion. Even so, this still results in the slowest growth of a 4-Quarter span in the history of Trump.

I will try to make an update using 201.0 for FY Q2 Increase, 274 Billion for FY Q3 Increase, and 21.34 Trillion for FY Q3 Level. Of course, all of these figures are subject to revision and correction.

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Friday, August 9, 2019 5:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with Wednesday's CBO.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $249
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $370
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2858
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3726
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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Monday, August 12, 2019 5:29 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The U.S. fiscal deficit has already exceeded the full-year figure for last year, as spending growth outpaces revenue.

The gap grew to $866.8 billion in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, up 27% from the same period a year earlier, the Treasury Department said in an emailed statement on Monday. That’s wider than last fiscal year’s shortfall of $779 billion -- which was the largest federal deficit since 2012. And this is all while the economy is booming. Woe to the deficit when the boom ends.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/u-s-budget-deficit-already-
exceeds-last-year-s-total-figure

The boom is so big that the US economy doesn’t have enough workers. And yet Trump spends more than he takes in from income taxes. What's he gonna do when unemployment increases and income tax revenue decreases? Run even bigger deficits!

For a record 16 straight months, the number of open jobs has been higher than the number of people looking for work. The US economy had 7.4 million job openings in June, but only 6 million people were looking for work, according to data released by the US Department of Labor.

This is not normal. Ever since Labor began tracking job turnover two decades ago, there have always been more people looking for work than jobs available. That changed for the first time in January 2018. Just look at the chart at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oBQB


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 13, 2019 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.

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