REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The Polling Aggregates 101

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Friday, November 6, 2020 10:14
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Friday, July 31, 2020 11:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


This information can be used to decipher any polling aggregate and to figure out how to follow trending information, but this was written specifically about the President Trump Job Approval on the RCP Aggregate in the Ruh Roh thread. I hope you find this informative, and please feel free to ask any questions or request that I further elaborate on anything. And by all means, if you believe that I have posted something in error please point that out as well.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL, THE RCP AGGREGATE 101



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html





I. HOW IT ALL WORKS:
A step-by-step breakdown of the important information on the entire page.

I.A.: The "Polling Data" table on top of the graph.



The first line highlighted in yellow is the RCP aggregate, or the average of all of the polls that were used in the table in real time (you might notice this page regularly refreshes on its own).

These numbers are what are plotted on the "RCP POLL AVERAGE: President Trump Job Approval" graph underneath the main table. (We'll get to that in detail shortly).

I.A.(x): The breakdown and definition of columns in the Polling Data table.

I.A.1 - POLL: The name of the Polling Firm.

I.A.2 - DATE: The date range of the specified poll in that line.

I.A.3 - SAMPLE: The amount of people who were in the poll. RV = Registered Voters. LV = Likely Voters.

I.A.4 - APPROVE: The percentage of respondents counted in the Sample column who expressed their approval for Trump. (Likely those who "Agreed Strongly" and "Somewhat Agree" when given 5 choices after the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far")

I.A.5 - DISAPPROVE: The percentage of respondents counted in the Sample column who expressed their disapproval of Trump. (Likely those who "Disagree Strongly" or "Somewhat Disagree" when given 5 choices after the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far")

SIDE NOTE: You'll notice it's extremely rare for the Approve and Disapprove numbers to reach 100. The missing percentages are people who would have selected "Don't Know" or "Have No Opinion" when posed with the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far".

I.A.6 - SPREAD: This is simply the difference between the Approve and Disapprove column in terms of the lines for each poll.

SIDE NOTE:In the case of the "RCP Average" line, APPROVE is the average of all approve numbers in the current aggregate table. DISAPPROVE is the average of all the disapprove numbers in the current aggregate table. SPREAD is the average spread of all of the polls currently included in the aggregate.



I.B.: The RCP Poll Average graph



This is a graph of the daily average APPROVE, DISAPPROVE, and SPREAD of any polls that were included on that day in the RCP aggregate. The polls included need to have a DATE column range that falls within the DATE column range of the first yellow "RCP Average" line of the table to be included.

You can hover your mouse over any point in time on that graph and it will display the exact numbers for the exact day that you hover over. The buttons at the bottom of the graph allow you to choose 7 Days, 14 Days, 30 Days, 6 Months, 1 Year, 2 Years and "Max" (entire Presidency, which is the default view).

You can also choose a custom date range for the graph by putting the start and end dates in the "From: " and "To: " boxes on the bottom and clicking on Apply.


I.B.(x) - The LINES on the graph

I.B.1 - RED: This is the average DISAPPROVE aggregate percentage on any given day. (Taken directly from the DISAPPROVE column in the yellow "RCP Average line).

I.B.2 - BLACK: This is the average APPROVE aggregate percentage on any given day. (Taken directly from the APPROVE column in the yellow "RCP Average line).

I.B.3 - HEAVY LINE ON BOTTOM: This is the average SPREAD aggregate percentage on any given day. (Taken directly from the SPREAD column in the yellow "RCP Average line).

SIDE NOTE: You can't tell from this graph, but it is also possible for that thick spread line to be black as well as red. But outside of his 0.1+ on January 27th, 2017, Trump has never had a Positive spread. If you were to do a custom date range of only the week of January 27th, 2017, you'd actually see black on this SPREAD line.



I.C.: The Historical Polling Table AKA "All President Trump Job Approval Polling Data"

SIDE NOTE: Here's where things might start to get tricky, and where I believe the breakdown in communication is happening with Ted. Everything up to this point is pretty boilerplate stuff, but I felt that it should all be plotted out just in case there were any misunderstandings on the data up until this point.

If you look at the very bottom line of the POLLING DATA table referenced in section I.A., you will see the line "All President Trump Job Approval Polling Data".

You can click on this to be taken to the data under the table, or just simply use the scroll bar on the right side of your browser to get to the start of it. You will notice immediately that there is a LOT more data on this page than what is in the Aggregate table and the graph.

Though it's not named, I will be calling it The Historical Polling Table.

Although you you can scroll down for miles all the way to the original polls that took place when Trump was elected, we will focus on the most important parts of the top of the table.

Here is a picture of the very top of the table:




I.C.1 - The Highlighted Columns:

Once again, you'll see the Yellow line which is the RCP Average. This is identical to the Yellow Line in the Aggregate Table at the top of the page above the graph.

You will also see, highlighted in grey, all of the polls which are currently included in the Aggregate Table. (Currently 11 polls) These highlighted lines are also identical to the individual poll lines in the Aggregate Table and are how the averages are calculated.

At first glance, it might seem curious that these aren't the top 11 lines in the column. But if you look harder, you'll see that the three toward the bottom that are not highlighted in grey are old polls from firms who have already put out a new poll. Even though both of their polls fall within the "DATE" column in the "RCP Average" Yellow line, the average does not calculate two polls by the same firm for the Aggregate and thus any polls falling in the time range that aren't the newest are left out of the Aggregate.


I.C.2 - The non Highlighted Columns:

And that brings us to all of the rest of the columns dating back to the beginning of 2017. At one point, every single one of these polls were counted in at least one of the daily "RCP Aggregate" scores which ended up plotted on the table.

You'll notice that some firms have a poll every single week, while others have one every month. Some might even be 3 to 6 months, while a handful of them are only once per year or even less than that.

SIDE NOTE: Personally, I don't believe that polls which aren't updated at least every 3 months should even be included, and even that is a stretch. Unless they are very much in line with the rest of the average of the aggregate when they pop up, they can cause a temporary false swing on the barometer in either direction depending on the political bent of the firm in question.

This phenomena itself is the largest contributor why I made this document to help you track trends rather than go by the graph which shows data that is inconsistent to actual trends for this very reason.

This concludes the basics of the Aggregate Table and Graph lesson. (Please feel free to let me know if anything was unclear or you have any questions about any of it, or to point out anything you think I might have stated in error. I will address these questions and update anything in the lesson that needs to be updated).





II. CALCULATING TRENDS: How you compare a poll-by-poll trend.

While it would be easy to simply look at the graph for the daily APPROVE, DISAPPROVE and SPREAD to view the trending, that is the lazy way to do it. Not only that, but it will give you somewhat erroneous data to work with. The graph is a valuable tool to be sure, but it is flawed.

As stated above, not every polling firm regularly updates with new polls, and some pop in only once per year or even less which will throw off the data of the entire aggregate for up to 3 weeks.

Even polls that come out around once per month can throw off the data when comparing it to the specific Aggregate of the day you're looking at it. This is particularly true if the abnormal poll in question has "violent" swings back and forth that seem inexplicable and do not reflect the general trends of all of the other polls in the aggregate during the DATE time frame they are released (For an example, See: ABC/WP poll, TABLE B which is referenced at the end of this lesson).



This is why I choose to break everything down by looking at whatever polls are currently in the RCP Aggregate, and comparing them to their previous poll to look at the Trend.

SIDE NOTE: This is the part that Ted didn't understand and why he had no idea how I was coming up with these numbers.


II.A.: A simple Poll Comparison

For this part, I will again put the picture of the most recent columns in the Historical Polling Table:



This is where we will begin to reference the non-highlighted lines in the table vs. the highlighted ones. And fortunately for us, there are three of them that are not highlighted in between the 11 lines that are included.

These are as follows:
ECONOMIST/YOUGOV
REUTERS/ISPOS
POLITCO/MORNING CONSULT


SIDE NOTE: This doesn't appear to have any bearing on the outcome of the numbers and averages, but I do find it curious that the names of the polls in the table seem to change from time to time. Examples include, but are not limited to "Rasmussen Reports" reading only as "Rasmussen" earlier today, and "Reuters/Ipsos" reading only as "Reuters" earlier today.

I cannot explain why that change happens, and this isn't the first time that I've noticed it. I'm simply mentioning it now however because I went back and changed the names from the tables that I had created in the thread earlier today to match the names in the images I took while making this document. I did take that time to verify that the dates and numbers all remained the same as recorded earlier, but felt the need to point out this odd behavior at RCP.


So... Ted asks "How do you get the + numbers on the spread?"

Here's where we answer that question. :)


The highlighted line for ECONOMIST/YOUGOV with a DATE of 7/26 - 7/28 has the following column data:

APPROVE: 44
DISAPPROVE: 53
SPREAD: -9

The previous line for ECONOMIST/YOUGOV with a DATE of 7/19 - 7/21 has the following column data:

APPROVE: 42
DISAPPROVE: 56
SPREAD: -14

As mentioned in section "I.C.1 - The Highlighted Columns" above, the older poll from ECONOMIST/YOUGOV which is no longer highlighted is also no longer part of the aggregate, even though the dates of 7/19 - 7/21 fall squarely in the DATE range of the Yellow line "RCP Average" because the aggregate will not include two or more polls from a polling firm in the average and will remove all but the newest one that falls into the date range.

Now if we compare the data for the new highlighted poll (7/26 - 7/28) compared to the data from the poll from 7/19 - 7/21, here is the difference:

APPROVE: +2
DISAPPROVE: -3
SPREAD: -5

CONCLUSION: For the ECONOMIST/YOUGOV poll exclusively, Trump's APPROVAL has risen 2 points, his DISAPPROVAL has fallen 3 points, and the SPREAD has fallen 5 points.

SIDE NOTE: Since we've established that except for one day in January of 2017, Trump has NEVER been in the black and seen a positive spread, a decrease in the spread is a good thing for Trump. If he were regularly in the black and had a higher APPROVE rating than DISAPPROVE rating in the aggregate, a decrease in the spread would be a bad thing for Trump.



Now we will apply this to the two other polls highlighted in the current aggregate in between other highlighted and included that also have an older poll within the date range that is not included.


REUTERS/ISPOS: 7/27 - 7/28
APPROVE: -40
DISAPPROVE: 58
SPREAD: -18

REUTERS/ISPOS: 7/15 - 7/21
APPROVE: 40
DISAPPROVE: 58
SPREAD: -18

DIFFERENCE:
APPROVE: NO CHANGE
DISAPPROVE: NO CHANGE
SPREAD: NO CHANGE

This polling firm came up with identical results for all three calculations in the currently included poll vs. their prior poll, thus all three columns have "NO CHANGE".



POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT: 7/24 - 7/26
APPROVE: 40
DISAPPROVE: 57
SPREAD: -17

POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT: 7/17 - 7/19
APPROVE: 40
DISAPPROVE: 57
SPREAD: -17

DIFFERENCE:
APPROVE: NO CHANGE
DISAPPROVE: NO CHANGE
SPREAD: NO CHANGE

This polling firm also came up with identical results.


SIDE NOTE: So far, of the three that we have looked at in depth, it matches perfectly with the data that I collected earlier today when showing only the change of SPREAD between the 11 polling firms in the aggregate this morning VS their previous poll. Although it doesn't include the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE numbers for all polls, rather than re-invent the wheel completely, I will just show the entire "TABLE A" data from that post which shows the changing trending data for the SPREAD column by each polling firm. Any one of these dates and numbers can be found and verified by matching them up to the Historic Polling Table referenced in the link at the top of the page.

Quote:
TABLE A:
POLLS CURRENTLY IN THE AGGREGATE VS. PREVIOUS POLL BY FIRM

(Current polls in the aggregate are Highlighted in this link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html)

EMERSON:
CURRENT: 7/29 - 7/30 - SPREAD: -6
PREVIOUS: 6/2 - 6/3 - SPREAD: -7 / +1 APPROVAL

RASMUSSEN REPORTS:
CURRENT: 7/28 - 7/30 - SPREAD: +2
PREVIOUS: 7/12 - 7/14 - SPREAD: -2 / +4 APPROVAL

REUTERS/IPSOS:
CURRENT: 7/27 - 7/38 - SPREAD: -18
PREVIOUS: 7/15 - 7/21 - SPREAD: -18 / NO CHANGE

ECONOMIST/YOUGOV:
CURRENT: 7/26 - 7/28 - SPREAD: -9
PREVIOUS: 7/19 - 7/21 - SPREAD: -14 / +5 APPROVAL

IBD/TIPP:
CURRENT: 7/25 - 7/28 - SPREAD: -11
PREVIOUS: 6/27 - 6/30 - SPREAD: -17 / +6 APPROVAL

THE HILL/HARRISX:
CURRENT: 7/24 - 7/26 - SPREAD: -12
PREVIOUS: 7/7 - 7/10 - SPREAD: -10 / -2 APPROVAL

CNBC/CHANGE RESEARCH (D):
CURRENT: 7/24 - 7/26 - SPREAD: -12
PREVIOUS: 7/10 - 7/12 - SPREAD: -14 / +2 APPROVAL

POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT:
CURRENT: 7/24 - 7/26 - SPREAD: -17
PREVIOUS: 7/17 - 7/19 - SPREAD: -17 / NO CHANGE

HARVARD-HARRIS:
CURRENT: 7/21 - 7/23 - SPREAD: -12
PREVIOUS: 6/17 - 6/18 - SPREAD: -14 / +2 APPROVAL

FOX NEWS:
CURRENT: 7/12 - 7/15 - SPREAD: -9
PREVIOUS: 6/13 - 6/16 - SPREAD: -11 / +2 APPROVAL

ABC NEWS/WASH POST:
CURRENT: 7/12 - 7/15 - SPREAD: -18
PREVIOUS: 5/25 - 5/28 - SPREAD: -8 / -10 APPROVAL*


I will not go into depth for the "*" on the ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll here since it would just confuse the lesson, but feel free to look at TABLE B in regards to anomaly polling here: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63763

SIDE NOTE: Maybe I will add a new section to the lesson plan regarding polling anomalies that will use the two most recent ABC NEWS/WASH POST polls as the perfect example since it was such a strange Pro-Trump outlier back in May vs its contemporaries has gone full Anti-Trump with its most recent poll. (It was more positive to Trump than Rasmussen Reports as a pro-Trump outlier in May and two months later is as negative for Trump as the Reuters/Ipsos outlier today, and inconsistent polling such as this can make tracking trends more difficult than it should be, and can be considered a perfect example of why one should take the time to research trends instead of just following a graph that doesn't account for this behavior).




So, with the explanation of why I have two different TABLE C values for this lesson out of the way, TABLE C will now illustrate the change in trends from the previous polls by firm, both with and without the ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll included:

Quote:
TABLE C:
CHANGE IN SPREAD FROM PREVIOUS POLL BY FIRM IN THE AGGREGATE
(REFERENCING TABLE A RESULTS)

EMERSON: +1 APPROVAL
RASMUSSEN REPORTS: +4 APPROVAL
REUTERS/ISPOS: NO CHANGE
ECONOMIST/YOUGOV: +5 APPROVAL
IBD/TIPP: +6 APPROVAL
THE HILL/HARRISX: -2 APPROVAL
CNBC/CHANGE RESEARCH (D): +2 APPROVAL
POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT: NO CHANGE
HARVARD-HARRIS: +2 APPROVAL
FOX NEWS: +2 APPROVAL
ABC NEWS/WASH POST: -10 APPROVAL*


AGGREGATED DIFFERENCE IN SPREAD BY POLLING FIRM (WITH ABC NEWS/WASH POST):
1 + 4 + 5 + 6 - 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 - 10 = +10

Divided by all 11 polling firms in the aggregate...

-.91 average in the spread




AGGREGATED DIFFERENCE IN SPREAD BY POLLING FIRM (WITHOUT ABC NEWS/WASH POST)

1 + 4 + 5 + 6 - 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 20

Divided by the 10 polling firms in the aggregate not including ABC/WP...

-2.00 average in the spread


SIDE NOTE: Yes. I do believe that it would be beneficial to have a section devoted to anomoly polls using ABC NEWS/WASH POST's last two as the perfect example. It's actually a great illustration of why you should do your own research and understand why it's important to suss out this info for yourself.

By adding the results of the two polls by this single firm to the aggregate today you've more than halved Trump's recent bump in the spread. By removing this poll, you've more than doubled it. (And without doing the math on the numbers back in late May, I would assume that the existence of the strange poll they did during that week would have had the exact opposite effect and had artificially bumped Trump's approval numbers quite a bit back then, rather than how they're artificially taking a bite out of them today).

There are valid reasons for both arguments, and believe it or not they're not all political. :)

I'm sure I'll get around to that update eventually. I've already put too much effort into this for one night though.


Well, I think that's about it for now. I will update this if I feel I have more to add and if somebody has any questions or points out any flaws in my statements here. I hope this is found to be helpful information.

Believe it or not, I tried to keep this as brief as possible, but unfortunately it's not something you can explain to somebody in a paragraph or two (Ask me how I know).

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Saturday, August 1, 2020 9:34 AM

THG


Since this thread came about due to another you fucked up badly, I am going to repost my response to you in that thread here as well. I feel it necessary to do so because my post thanks you profusely for creating a thread, which so thoroughly shows Biden destroying Trump in the polls. When I think of another way you can assist the never Trumpers, I'll let you know.

Bravo…

It shouldn't go unnoticed that Jack is now referencing as true, all the polls he has been claiming to be fake news for months. What a fucking dummy. Enjoy the repost below.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Please keep any trolling in here, Ted, but I did make a lesson plan for you to learn how to use Polling Aggregates and read the tables.

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63767&mid=11066
78#1106678




If you have any legitimate questions though, please feel free to ask them in the lesson thread.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


You went back and edited your posts. Glad I was able to help. I didn't mean to upset you so. I see you were so pissed off you started a new thread. This time posting what you wanted to post here originally, and then everything else you could find. It's as though you couldn't stop yourself.

I suppose you did that because you fucked this one up so badly. Again, so sorry to have upset you so. After a brief glance at your new thread, it appears you've gotten it right. Good for you dummy.

It does seem though, that you've spent hours doing so. It looks as though a mad man spent all night creating the new thread and cleaning this one up. Holy shit you must've been pissed.

It is a beautiful thread though Jack. And it really shows from all the different angels just how badly Biden is beating Trump. You've done this days' work for me. I couldn't have done better myself, and be prouder of you Jack. Thanks dummy.

Hey everybody, please check out Jacks new thread. It shows just how badly Biden is beating Trump. This shits just too funny Jack. You're killing me.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.




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Saturday, August 1, 2020 10:14 AM

THG


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.


Trump attempts to sow doubt over Election Day


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Saturday, August 1, 2020 11:32 AM

REAVERFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Since this thread came about due to another you fucked up badly, I am going to repost my response to you in that thread here as well. I feel it necessary to do so because my post thanks you profusely for creating a thread, which so thoroughly shows Biden destroying Trump in the polls. When I think of another way you can assist the never Trumpers, I'll let you know.

Bravo…

It shouldn't go unnoticed that Jack is now referencing as true, all the polls he has been claiming to be fake news for months. What a fucking dummy. Enjoy the repost below.


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Please keep any trolling in here, Ted, but I did make a lesson plan for you to learn how to use Polling Aggregates and read the tables.

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63767&mid=11066
78#1106678




If you have any legitimate questions though, please feel free to ask them in the lesson thread.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


You went back and edited your posts. Glad I was able to help. I didn't mean to upset you so. I see you were so pissed off you started a new thread. This time posting what you wanted to post here originally, and then everything else you could find. It's as though you couldn't stop yourself.

I suppose you did that because you fucked this one up so badly. Again, so sorry to have upset you so. After a brief glance at your new thread, it appears you've gotten it right. Good for you dummy.

It does seem though, that you've spent hours doing so. It looks as though a mad man spent all night creating the new thread and cleaning this one up. Holy shit you must've been pissed.

It is a beautiful thread though Jack. And it really shows from all the different angels just how badly Biden is beating Trump. You've done this days' work for me. I couldn't have done better myself, and be prouder of you Jack. Thanks dummy.

Hey everybody, please check out Jacks new thread. It shows just how badly Biden is beating Trump. This shits just too funny Jack. You're killing me.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.




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Saturday, August 1, 2020 12:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


See Reply Here:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63763&p=1#11067
23

This is a thread for intelligent discussion, which it seems that you are incapable of, Ted. Unless you actually want to learn something, I'll request that you keep the trolling in the other thread.

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Saturday, August 1, 2020 2:23 PM

THG


Ok, since Jack is still posting to me from both threads, I'll again post here my response in the other thread. Enjoy the post below.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Yes. I edited the post. I was completely transparent about that fact and I noted what the edits were. I'll post them again here, because I'm not hiding anything.

I made three edits to the original thread. All of them were remarked in the original post. Only one of them had any bearing on the outcome of the numbers due to a mistake on my part, and it was small.

1. Added the Emerson poll which was added to the RCP Aggregate after I made the original post. (And raised Trumps aggreage approval from 43.2% to 43.4%.)

2. Changed the names of the polling firms to the expanded names that RCP was using last night when I took screenshots. They change these from time to time and I have no idea why. I commented both in this lesson and in the original post that I did so. All numbers and dates matched and it did not change the outcome.

3. I had originally added 2 points to Trump's approval rather than subtract two points from The Hill poll. This had a very small net effect on his overall IMPROVEMENT of his polling average, which was still a sizable improvement either way.


Do Right, Be Right. :)




Wow, again a long rambling post. I’ll keep the opening part because it details some of the mistakes you are willing to admit to. It also validates my post pointing out your mistakes. After you fixed them in the other thread, I only explained that your posts, plural, had been edited. I didn't say anything regarding the content of the edits. Only that I was glad I could help. To be honest I never read them. At a glance I noticed changes. All the other shit you speak of is going on in your head.

That said, it’s hard to go forward in opposition against posts that have been drastically altered. Riddle me this dummy. How can you claim I was wrong after you went ahead and admittedly fixed it all? Even created a new thread because the old one was so fucked up?

Now, I once again wish to thank you for creating a polling thread that will constantly remind you, and the rest of us, Trump doesn’t stand a chance. Then explain to you. If you think posting all those polls showing Trump being destroyed in any way enhances your viewpoint, that he is doing better when he may have went from -17 to – 15 is laughable. What a number like that shows he is getting killed.

And as I’ve stated in the other thread. The economy just tanked in a big way. His forced reopening turned into a nightmare for the country. In the areas where most of his support comes from. Yes, even for his most ardent supporters. This month is going to be bad. Many are going to be thrown to the streets because of the Republicans if they don’t do something quick. I’m looking forward to seeing the polling that follows. I’ll speak for all the never Trumpers and say, please Jack please, keep posting these polls.

Remember, temper temper boy. It only drives your low two digit IQ into the single digits. Why is this important to you? Because you’ve created a polls thread. Posting negative polls regarding Trump puts you into the never Trumpers camp; welcome.


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.



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Saturday, August 1, 2020 3:18 PM

THG

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Saturday, August 1, 2020 6:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


We'll revisit this thread in November when Trump wins again.

Maybe you'll decide it's time you learn how things actually work when that happens.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, August 1, 2020 8:12 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We'll revisit this thread in November when Trump wins again.

Maybe you'll decide it's time you learn how things actually work when that happens.



Do Right, Be Right. :)


Me, I’m the one who’s going to realize how things work come November. You’re the one who just got hit in the face with reality dummy. For a brief moment you entered the real world. You entered my world. The world of documented facts. And Jack, you got smashed.

Dealing in the world of facts is different than trolling Jack. Dealing in facts is different than ignorant street coroner wrongheaded bullshit. Dealing in facts means, you can’t retreat to the world of bullshit, then claim you’re dealing in facts because the facts will always show how you are not.

I guess looking at the polls was too much for you? Visiting the world of facts and seeing the reality of Trump getting crushed was too much. So, you tell us you’ll revisit your polling threads in 3 months. This isn’t just a reality check for you Jack. This is a character check. And again, you fail. You show yourself to be of very weak character.

For you, It’s back to calling all future polls fake news, aye dummy. It’s back to calling the mainstream media around the world fake, because you can not produce documented facts to prove them wrong. You’re a very sad individual. I’ll go back to ignoring most of what you post. Run little girl, run.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Saturday, August 1, 2020 11:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wow. Do you think it was me who learned something yesterday while taking the time to write that up last night?

Do you think I haven't been paying attention to polls or know how they work?

None of your arguments you made yesterday were valid, and I proved them all wrong here. And you still haven't displayed that you have an ounce of understanding of how polling aggregates and trending works.

All you have left is "Biden is up in the polls"???

No shit. So was Hillary. And by more than Biden. Trump's approval has always been outweighed by his disapproval except for one single day in January of 2017.

What is your point there? This is nothing new.






So your lessons for today are on Trending and Historical Data.


1. Trending:

Trump rises yet again in the polling Aggregate on August 1st, 2020, from 43.4% to 43.6%. Yesterday morning when I started the other thread it was 43.2%.



Contrary to everything that you have said so far, Trump's numbers are not going down. Unless we're talking his DISAPPROVAL and the SPREAD, but as the lesson plan established, a lowering of the SPREAD for Trump is a good thing.

And at the end of the day the SPREAD is the most meaningless of all three of the numbers anyhow. People who already hate Trump are not going to vote for Trump no matter what happens.

What you need to start worrying about is the Enthusiasm Gap. Trump isn't worried about that one. But you should be.


2. Historiacal Data:

Obama's Approval on August 1st of 2012 was only 47.4%.



Since we can't be sure you know how to Math, I'll just let you know right now that's a whopping 3.8% higher than Trump is right now, and Trump was just 0.1% shy of that on March 27th before all of this 2020 garbage started.

And the Legacy Media spent 8 full years blowing Obama every single day. And nobody was worried that they were going to be called a Nazi or a racist or have people attack them or doxx them or try to get them fired for saying they supported Obama either.









As for me? I beat Nate Silver in 2016. And I was so drunk I had to buy a new keyboard because I kept mistaking my keyboard for an ashtray at the time.

I ain't drunk now. And you're no Nate Silver.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 9:55 AM

THG


You don’t understand polls Jack. You haven’t connected when the poll was taken with what event or events may have caused any uptick. Also, what may have occurred that will bring them down.

The May jobs report helped Trump. It kept him from going over the edge. But it remains true that in May he had an approval rating of 49% and as of now he is at 43%. For the third time in as may posts. What happened the day before you decided to post the polls wiped out, and then some, any gains Trump may have had. The economy tanked and contracted by a third. Knowing this, and understanding what it means, I am aware he no longer holds that 43% rating.

Look at your post. As of Aug 1st, Trumps disapproval rating shows an average of a +10 jump. As of, May 22, 2020. Trump’s approval rating was at a 49%. Look at the poll you just posted again today. He went from 49% to 43% since May.

Again, if you connect the poll to when it was taken and what events had and have occurred since, you gain insights into what’s actually happening. The day you posted the poll, Trumps approval ratings were already tanking again because of what just happened to economy two days before. This is how pollsters understand how to interpret polls. You see the poll as Trumps numbers going up because you lack insight. I see the events of the day as causing Trumps approval to subtract again. When what happened to our economy has had time to permeate amongst the voters, the polls will reflect I'm right. Trumps not at 43%.

tick tock


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 11:03 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

tick tock
What about the money? The U.S. has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow. Between Congress and the Federal Reserve, the government has committed record levels to try to stop an economic calamity — with just limited success.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trill
ion/

$6 trillion can buy a President a lot of love on election day. Trump has that money. Obama did NOT, yet he still got reelected. If Trump doesn't get reelected, it means that the next round of free money, an additional $3 trillion added to the previous $6 trillion, wasn't enough. To put those numbers into context, the National debt held by the public at the end of March 2020 was $17.7 trillion. Such debt is issued in a range of maturities from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/06/how-much-is-the-national-debt-what-are-the-d
ifferent-measures-used

House Democrats passed a $3 trillion bill in May that would have extended the benefits for those without work at the current level of $600 per week, in addition to their weekly unemployment insurance check. Great Job, Democrats! Help Trump be reelected! However, Republicans have balked at the price tag. I sure hope the GOP kills the Democrats' very generous bill to reelect Trump.
www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-democrats-closer-deal-covid-19-relief
-bill/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 11:45 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
You don’t understand polls Jack.


I don't understand polls, huh?

And then you follow up that sentence by displaying a staggering lack of understanding on your own part?

Quote:
You haven’t connected when the poll was taken with what event or events may have caused any uptick. Also, what may have occurred that will bring them down.

The May jobs report helped Trump. It kept him from going over the edge.


Going over the edge? The middle of May was just short of all-time-high polling for Trump. And since then, despite the shit show that is 2020, you guys couldn't even get him down to below 41% in the polls. Which, incidentally, he's already rebounded 2.4% since his low last month.


Quote:
But it remains true that in May he had an approval rating of 49%


No he didn't. Trump's peak in may was only 46.3%, his valley was 43.6% (Which is what it stands at today, coincidentally).

In fact, Trump has never once had an aggregate of 49% in nearly 4 years.

Quote:
and as of now he is at 43%. For the third time in as may posts. What happened the day before you decided to post the polls wiped out, and then some, any gains Trump may have had. The economy tanked and contracted by a third. Knowing this, and understanding what it means, I am aware he no longer holds that 43% rating.


You're aware of that, huh?

So, genius... How low do you suspect it's going to go now?

Quote:
Look at your post. As of Aug 1st, Trumps disapproval rating shows an average of a +10 jump.


Are you talking about the SPREAD again?

If you are, you still don't know what the SPREAD means. If you aren't, I have no idea what you're looking at when you say "+10 jump."


The closest thing I can see to a "+10 jump" in disapproval is if you count his most recent lowest Disapproval rating of 49.5% on March 29th and compare it to his most recent highest Disapproval rating of 56.4% on July 12, but that's still only a 6.9% jump.

And today it stands at 54.1%, so it's only up 4.6% since March 29th.

Quote:
As of, May 22, 2020. Trump’s approval rating was at a 49%.


No. It wasn't.

On May 22nd, Trump's approval was 45%.

At no time in May was Trump's approval over 46.3%.

At no time during his entire presidency was Trump's approval over 47.3%.

Quote:
Look at the poll you just posted again today. He went from 49% to 43% since May.


I didn't post a poll. I posted the RCP aggregate of polls, which I went to a lot of effort to explain to you. A complete waste of time, obviously.

In May he ranged from 43.6% to 46.3% Approval. Today he is at 43.6% Approval.

Quote:
Again, if you connect the poll


Not one poll. An aggregate of polls.

Quote:
to when it was taken and what events had and have occurred since, you gain insights into what’s actually happening. The day you posted the poll, Trumps approval ratings were already tanking again because of what just happened to economy two days before. This is how pollsters understand how to interpret polls. You see the poll as Trumps numbers going up because you lack insight.


I've got a lot of insight. I'm also not focusing on a single issue (or one single poll), which is the trap you're falling into.

Unwittingly, you're providing a hilarious example for everyone why you shouldn't take a single poll seriously and should instead use the aggregate of polls as the tool to judge trends by. At no point in time did you ever go around waving a 49% approval rating for Trump when one of those polls came out, even though you've always been quick to wave around single polls that show a horrible percentage for Trump.

But now that you (think that you) like the trajectory that Trump has been on since a single poll said he was at 49%, you LOVE waving that number around and have brought it up no less than 3 times in this post.

The problem is, the 49% can't be taken out of the aggregate and singularly compared to the aggregate now, since it wasn't taken out of the aggregate and singularly compared to the times when Trump was polling lower in the aggregate either. That 49% from a single poll was part of the aggregate, and thus was tempered to the average of all of the other polls at the time.

(Incidentally, this is why polling in individual states will not be very accurate because there is not enough polling being done to make an aggregate and there are no checks and balances for any biased polling numbers).

Quote:
I see the events of the day as causing Trumps approval to subtract again.


No. You're parroting what Morning Joe and Rachel Maddow are saying. And the Lincoln Project.

You're not doing any research or figuring out anything for yourself.

You can't even be bothered to learn how polling tables and graphs work when I did all the work for you and all you have to do is read.

Quote:
When what happened to our economy has had time to permeate amongst the voters, the polls will reflect I'm right. Trumps not at 43%.


Democrats are largely to blame for where the economy is at right now. I'm aware that you don't believe this, but that point is moot. You were never going to vote to reelect Trump before the Democrats caused us to lose over 7 years of GDP gains in a single quarter. Fortunately for America, a lot of Americans know this.

I'd also heed Second's warning here as well.

Depsite the fact GDP has tanked, Trump essentially has a mandate to pass a new stimulus bill that will give everybody who isn't working free money for the next 3 months, and everybody else a 2nd stimulus check that's going to come with his signature on it again and another letter to every American.

People already forgot about the first one, but the second one is going to come right before election day. Right or wrong, that's huge free campaign advertising on the taxpayer's dime.

Quote:
tick tock


Yes. Tick Tock to 4 more years of tick tocks.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 1:32 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

tick tock
What about the money? The U.S. has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow. Between Congress and the Federal Reserve, the government has committed record levels to try to stop an economic calamity — with just limited success.


$6 trillion can buy a President a lot of love on election day. Trump has that money. Obama did NOT, yet he still got reelected. If Trump doesn't get reelected, it means that the next round of free money, an additional $3 trillion added to the previous $6 trillion, wasn't enough. To put those numbers into context, the National debt held by the public at the end of March 2020 was $17.7 trillion. Such debt is issued in a range of maturities from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/06/how-much-is-the-national-debt-what-are-the-d
ifferent-measures-used


Already baked into the pie second.


House Democrats passed a $3 trillion bill in May that would have extended the benefits for those without work at the current level of $600 per week, in addition to their weekly unemployment insurance check. Great Job, Democrats! Help Trump be reelected! However, Republicans have balked at the price tag. I sure hope the GOP kills the Democrats' very generous bill to reelect Trump.
www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-democrats-closer-deal-covid-19-relief
-bill/



Key phrase is, democrats pass a $3 Trillion bill second. Another key phrase, the republicans blocked it. Add to that because of the republicans unemployment ran out Friday.

tick tock



T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 2:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 2:07 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


You're a funny guy Jack. You've been trolling me and others for years. Do you really think anyone gives a shit about what you want. Yep, you're a funny guy.

Add to that the fact you've been calling the mainstream media fake news for like, forever. Realclear politics is mainstream media. So Jack, why would you think for a second anyone would seek out an understanding of anything reported in the media from you? You viewed as a nut job here. Yep, you're a funny guy.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.



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Sunday, August 2, 2020 6:37 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Democrats are largely to blame for where the economy is at right now. I'm aware that you don't believe this, but that point is moot. You were never going to vote to reelect Trump before the Democrats caused us to lose over 7 years of GDP gains in a single quarter. Fortunately for America, a lot of Americans know this.

I'd also heed Second's warning here as well.

Depsite the fact GDP has tanked, Trump essentially has a mandate to pass a new stimulus bill that will give everybody who isn't working free money for the next 3 months, and everybody else a 2nd stimulus check that's going to come with his signature on it again and another letter to every American.

People already forgot about the first one, but the second one is going to come right before election day. Right or wrong, that's huge free campaign advertising on the taxpayer's dime.
Spending $9 trillion this year to bribe voters WILL IMPROVE TRUMP'S POLLING NUMBERS.

The GOP has increased the National Debt by 50% in the last 6 months so that they could mail cash to voters. That has got to buy Trump millions and millions of votes.

The GOP is in charge of the economy, not Democrats. The economy crashed because the President and the Federal Reserve crashed it by NOT HANDLING Covid-19 with any sense of responsibility for what happens. Despite the crash, the GOP thinks it can buy the election with $9 trillion in cash to voters. Maybe it can. Maybe the famous "Independent" voters are that stupid or have amnesia about who was, and still is, in charge when the economy crashed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 7:30 PM

THG


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.


North Carolina, Georgia both in play for Biden, Trump in November


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Sunday, August 2, 2020 7:56 PM

THG


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.


North Carolina, Georgia both in play for Biden, Trump in November


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Sunday, August 2, 2020 10:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, August 2, 2020 10:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The change today:

Addition of updated Emerson Poll:

CURRENT EMERSON: 7/29 - 7/30
APPROVE: 45
DISAPPROVE: 51
SPREAD: -6

PREVIOUS EMERSON: 6/2 - 6/3
APPROVE: 43
DISAPPROVE: 50
SPREAD: -7

CHANGE:
APPROVE: +2
DISAPPROVE: +1
SPREAD: -1

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 2:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


RCP Aggregate at 43.7% today. (+0.1 from yesterday. +0.5 since the day this lesson began.)


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

The changes today:

1. ADDITIONAL POLL:

Addition of updated Rasmussen Poll:

CURRENT RASMUSSEN REPORTS: 7/29 - 8/2
APPROVE: 51
DISAPPROVE: 47
SPREAD: +4

PREVIOUS RASMUSSEN REPORTS: 7/12 - 7/14
APPROVE: 48
DISAPPROVE: 50
SPREAD: -2

CHANGE:
APPROVE: +3
DISAPPROVE: -3
SPREAD: +6

LESSON OF THE DAY: This is one of the rare instances so far where a positive SPREAD for Trump is a good thing since he's in positive APPROVE territory on the Rasmussen Reports outlier poll.

As we've established in previous lessons, it is usually a bad thing for Trump when the SPREAD increases because usually on most polls as well as the Aggregate he polls with lower APPROVE than DISAPPROVE.



2. AGED POLLS (Which have fallen out of the Aggregate Date Range):

FOX NEWS: 7/12 - 7/15
APPROVE: 45
DISAPPROVE: 54
SPREAD: -9

ABC NEWS/WASH POST: 7/12 - 7/15
APPROVE: 40
DISAPPROVE: 58
SPREAD: -18

Until these firms release new polling data that falls within the RCP Aggregate, this means that their data is now considered too old to be a part of any averages.

SECOND LESSON OF THE DAY: This will actually be an update to a previous lesson about why we shouldn't count polls that aren't regularly done and have wild inconsistencies among their contemporaries. See my notes on the two most recent ABC NEWS/WASH POST polls at the end of the original lesson for the in depth reason why.


So... Here is what happened today regarding the polls that aged off. Both ABC/WASH POST and FOX NEWS's most recent polls have fallen off the aggregate today. FOX had a -9 spread on the last poll while ABC had a -18.

Because of this, we went from 11 total polls counted in the aggregate yesterday down to only 9 polls today.

And yet, there was only a minor change of +0.1 to the APPROVE for Trump.

This is because when you look at the two polls, the FOX NEWS poll showed a middling score for APPROVE and a middling DISAPPROVE compared to the rest in the pack, which actually made it toward the top in favor of Trump on the SPREAD with a -9. Only being beaten out by Emerson at -6 and Rasmussen with +4. The ABC NEWS showed the absolute low of 40 for APPROVE and the absolute high of 58 for DISAPPROVE in their most recent poll. Because of this, the bump Trump would have gotten by the ABC NEWS outlier falling off was negated entirely by the aging off of the FOX NEWS poll, and the fact that we are now dividing only by 9 firms rather than 11. This gives more power to each of the firms temporarily, and more of them are negative toward Trump than positive.


What does this mean?

In the short term it's going to mean more good news for Trump.

Why?

Two reasons:

1. Because if you look at the Historical Polling Table, you'll see that FOX NEWS has a poll every month, roughly during the second week of the month, while ABC NEWS only has one every other month.

This means that in another week or so we should expect another FOX NEWS poll on the aggregate, while it might not be until the end of August or early September before we get another ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll.


2. FOX NEWS was pretty middling on all three numbers. If current trends are anything to go by... and they are... expect a modest increase in Trump's favor to the aggregate when the new FOX poll comes out. And even if it were identical to the last poll, it would still be in Trump's favor because we'd be dividing by 10 now instead of 9, with numbers by FOX that are generally more positive than most of the other firms currently aggregated.

OTOH, ABC NEWS/WASH POST was an extreme outlier poll against Trump before it aged off, with all three numbers either being the least favorable for Trump or tied with the other outliers for least favorable. Barring a significant downturn for Trump before the new ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll is released, they will have no choice but to give better numbers during the next poll than their last one, otherwise they're going to be viewed as even more extreme than Politico and Reuters.

And because they were so bad the last time and it's almost impossible for them to come out with another poll reflecting those numbers next time, when they do come back it will also be a bump for Trump. (Remember that two polls ago they were all the way in the other extreme and very favorable to Trump compared to the other firms). They are somewhat of a wildcard because they are bad at their jobs and the definition of unpredictable.



I hope you're learning something, Ted.



And I realize that these numbers can't go up forever, and this early in the race I do expect some fluctuation.

But we're almost back up to 44 right now. And the fact that were in the middle of a manufactured pandemic situation and on the brink of a 2nd Great Depression, that's not looking too good for Biden.

He should literally be running away with this thing right now if things are as you say they are.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 3:27 PM

THG


These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not. No way Trump wins with numbers like this. I'll say it again, no way Trump wins with numbers like this.

This people, is the lesson for the day. These numbers are all fact, and zero speculation.



RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 4:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This information can be used to decipher any polling aggregate and to figure out how to follow trending information, but this was written specifically about the President Trump Job Approval on the RCP Aggregate in the Ruh Roh thread. I hope you find this informative, and please feel free to ask any questions or request that I further elaborate on anything. And by all means, if you believe that I have posted something in error please point that out as well.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL, THE RCP AGGREGATE 101

Quote:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html


I. HOW IT ALL WORKS:
A step-by-step breakdown of the important information on the entire page.

I.A.: The "Polling Data" table on top of the graph.

Quote:
The first line highlighted in yellow is the RCP aggregate, or the average of all of the polls that were used in the table in real time (you might notice this page regularly refreshes on its own).

These numbers are what are plotted on the "RCP POLL AVERAGE: President Trump Job Approval" graph underneath the main table. (We'll get to that in detail shortly).



Believe it or not, I tried to keep this as brief as possible, but unfortunately it's not something you can explain to somebody in a paragraph or two (Ask me how I know).
I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 4:37 PM

THG


I can't believe my eyes every time Jack and now JSF post poll numbers showing Trump getting his ass kicked. So, the number they keep posting is Trumps approval ratings.

43.4% as of a few days ago approve. This was before the economy tanked by a third, and 54.5% disapproved. And that number also reflects the mood of people before the economy tanked. That's 11.1% more people disapprove. Why the hell would they want to brag about that?

These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.


RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 5:14 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Yanno JACK, I can't believe you spent all those words to say the gap in the polls was narrowing.

But just as the polls are moving in one direction, the betting odds are moving in the other.

Anyway, while republicans in Congress are telling each other to cut loose from Trump if it'll help their reelection campaigns, democrats are urging Biden to skip the debates.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.



I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it.


The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE.

Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate.


ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122

122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1




On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread.

The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so.


But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yanno JACK, I can't believe you spent all those words to say the gap in the polls was narrowing.


That's not what I did.

I've already said that, but Ted doesn't get it.

I did it to try to teach Ted how polls and polling aggregates work. But more importantly, how and why to follow how polls are trending.



And now, until I hear back from JSF, I'm not so sure that he couldn't benefit from the lesson as well. At least in regard to how the spread works and what its function is.

Maybe if you have more to say yourself, we'll find out that you don't know how polling aggregates work either?


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.


So what?

70.3% believe the country is not on the right track.

Yet nearly 44% approve of the job that Trump is doing.



That would suggest to me that a great deal of those people who aren't happy with the way things are going aren't saying anything bad about Trump and what he's trying to do, and that's more a referendum on other people.

That's bad news for Biden.

That's why we've got a record number of new gun owners this year that certainly aren't going to be voting for Biden.


BLM, Antifa and Mask Karens are going to kill Biden's chances.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:30 PM

THG


Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.



It is AN outlier. Which I've already pointed out several times. (Do a CTRL+ F and search for outlier, and you'll see that this is the case).

There are several on the other side as well.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 6:44 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.



It is AN outlier. Which I've already pointed out several times. (Do a CTRL+ F and search for outlier, and you'll see that this is the case).

There are several on the other side as well.


Do Right, Be Right. :)


Sure dummy, but you keep forgetting to say because of this, Trumps approval rating is closer to 41%, not 43%. And Jack, that means there never was an uptick for Trump. As for outliners for Biden. His spread only differs 6%. Can you see it Jack, can you see it?

Now Jack, can you recognize who is schooling who? I think not, but I wanted to point it out anyway.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 7:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


JACK - how far back do you want to go, and how many polls do you want to eliminate?

Here's one poll, all the way back to the beginning (most recent at the top):

ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 845 RV 49 47 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 913 RV 46 52 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 880 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 10/27 - 10/30 876 RV 39 59 -20
ABC/WP 9/2 - 9/5 877 RV 40 55 -15
ABC/WP 6/28 - 7/1 875 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 4/22 - 4/25 865 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 1/21 - 1/24 893 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 1041 RV 44 52 -8
ABC/WP 10/8 - 10/11 991 RV 43 53 -10
ABC/WP 8/26 - 8/29 879 RV 38 60 -22
ABC/WP 4/8 - 4/11 865 RV 44 54 -10
ABC/WP 1/15 - 1/18 846 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 884 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 9/18 - 9/21 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 8/16 - 8/20 RV 39 58 -19
ABC/WP 7/10 - 7/13 RV 39 56 -17
ABC/WP 4/17 - 4/20 1004 A 42 53 -11

If I go back to the beginning of this year, Trump's in trouble. If I go ALL they way back, he's doing more or less the same.

Here's another one, but with merely uniformly bad news.
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
CBS News 1/26 - 1/29 1202 A 43 51 -8
CBS News 5/17 - 5/20 1101 A 41 52 -11
CBS News 1/18 - 1/21 1102 A 36 59 -23
CBS News 11/15 - 11/18 1103 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 RV 42 53 -11
CBS News 6/14 - 6/17 1100 A 42 52 -10
CBS News 5/3 - 5/6 1101 A 40 55 -15
CBS News 3/8 - 3/11 1223 A 38 57 -19
CBS News 1/13 - 1/16 1225 A 37 58 -21
CBS News 12/3 - 12/5 1120 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 10/27 - 10/30 1109 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 9/21 - 9/24 1202 A 35 55 -20
CBS News 8/3 - 8/6 1111 A 36 58 -22
CBS News 6/15 - 6/18 1117 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 4/21 - 4/24 1214 A 41 53 -12
CBS News 4/7 - 4/9 1006 A 43 49 -6
CBS News 3/25 - 3/28 1088 A 40 52 -12
CBS News 2/17 - 2/21 1280 A 39 51 -12
CBS News 2/1 - 2/2 1019 A 40 48 -8

CNN looked hopeful from the beginning of the year as compared to his historic polling, but the last poll took a serious dump.
CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 40 57 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 1001 RV 46 51 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 875 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 1084 RV 45 52 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 1051 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 44 52 -8
CNN 11/21 - 11/24 910 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 10/17 - 10/20 892 RV 42 57 -15
CNN 9/5 - 9/9 1526 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 8/15 - 8/18 886 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 1466 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 5/28 - 5/31 902 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 4/25 - 4/28 913 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/14 - 3/17 914 RV 43 51 -8
CNN 1/30 - 2/2 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 1/10 - 1/11 848 A 37 57 -20
CNN 12/6 - 12/9 RV 40 53 -13
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 41 57 -16
CNN 10/4 - 10/7 920 RV 43 52 -9
CNN 9/6 - 9/9 923 RV 37 57 -20
CNN 8/9 - 8/12 921 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 6/14 - 6/17 901 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 44 51 -7
CNN 3/22 - 3/25 913 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 2/20 - 2/23 909 RV 39 56 -17
CNN 1/14 - 1/18 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 12/14 - 12/17 898 RV 36 59 -23
CNN 11/2 - 11/5 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 10/12 - 10/15 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 9/26 - 9/28 1037 A 37 56 -19
CNN 9/17 - 9/20 RV 42 53 -11
CNN 8/3 - 8/6 RV 40 56 -16


So, what do you want us to do, JACK? Squint our eyes and eliminate those bad polls and select our timeframe to create a particular outcome?


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Monday, August 3, 2020 7:46 PM

THG



You guys crack me up. The only numbers that matter are those that are current. Not knowing that just shows your ignorance.

43.4% as of a few days ago approve. This was before the economy tanked by a third, and 54.5% disapproved. And that number also reflects the mood of people before the economy tanked. That's 11.1% more people disapproving. We've also discussed why Trumps extreme outliers exaggerate his 43% approval number.

These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.


RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.


T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 7:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.



NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.



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Monday, August 3, 2020 7:52 PM

THG


Really kiki, really. Let's see the numbers and calculations. For instance, what is his current job approval according to you?

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 7:59 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***



I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***



I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.



lol.

Yup.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Sure dummy, but you keep forgetting to say because of this, Trumps approval rating is closer to 41%, not 43%.


I'm never going to say that because all of the polls are bullshit, just like they were in 2016.

He's doing WAY better than those polls suggest he is, just as was the case in 2016.

THAT IS NOT THE FUCKING POINT OF WATCHING TRENDS ON THE AGGREGATE FOR THE 1000 FUCKING TIME, IDIOT.

Quote:
And Jack, that means there never was an uptick for Trump.


And what fucking planet are you living on when this is the conclusion you draw?

Every one of those polls, even the most anti-Trump poll out there, is giving the uptick to Trump.

THAT is the point of following the trends. Not buying their numbers, but watching which way things are trending.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:09 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.


Really kiki, really. Let's see the numbers and calculations. For instance, what is his current job approval according to you?

T





NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.




Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***



I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.


What a fucking moron, and as we already know, a lier. Holy shit, between you Jack and sig I'm having too much fun to change the channel, so to speak.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.



NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.





Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JACK - how far back do you want to go, and how many polls do you want to eliminate?

Here's one poll, all the way back to the beginning (most recent at the top):

ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 845 RV 49 47 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 913 RV 46 52 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 880 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 10/27 - 10/30 876 RV 39 59 -20
ABC/WP 9/2 - 9/5 877 RV 40 55 -15
ABC/WP 6/28 - 7/1 875 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 4/22 - 4/25 865 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 1/21 - 1/24 893 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 1041 RV 44 52 -8
ABC/WP 10/8 - 10/11 991 RV 43 53 -10
ABC/WP 8/26 - 8/29 879 RV 38 60 -22
ABC/WP 4/8 - 4/11 865 RV 44 54 -10
ABC/WP 1/15 - 1/18 846 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 884 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 9/18 - 9/21 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 8/16 - 8/20 RV 39 58 -19
ABC/WP 7/10 - 7/13 RV 39 56 -17
ABC/WP 4/17 - 4/20 1004 A 42 53 -11

If I go back to the beginning of this year, Trump's in trouble. If I go ALL they way back, he's doing more or less the same.

Here's another one, but with merely uniformly bad news.
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
CBS News 1/26 - 1/29 1202 A 43 51 -8
CBS News 5/17 - 5/20 1101 A 41 52 -11
CBS News 1/18 - 1/21 1102 A 36 59 -23
CBS News 11/15 - 11/18 1103 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 RV 42 53 -11
CBS News 6/14 - 6/17 1100 A 42 52 -10
CBS News 5/3 - 5/6 1101 A 40 55 -15
CBS News 3/8 - 3/11 1223 A 38 57 -19
CBS News 1/13 - 1/16 1225 A 37 58 -21
CBS News 12/3 - 12/5 1120 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 10/27 - 10/30 1109 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 9/21 - 9/24 1202 A 35 55 -20
CBS News 8/3 - 8/6 1111 A 36 58 -22
CBS News 6/15 - 6/18 1117 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 4/21 - 4/24 1214 A 41 53 -12
CBS News 4/7 - 4/9 1006 A 43 49 -6
CBS News 3/25 - 3/28 1088 A 40 52 -12
CBS News 2/17 - 2/21 1280 A 39 51 -12
CBS News 2/1 - 2/2 1019 A 40 48 -8

CNN looked hopeful from the beginning of the year as compared to his historic polling, but the last poll took a serious dump.
CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 40 57 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 1001 RV 46 51 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 875 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 1084 RV 45 52 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 1051 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 44 52 -8
CNN 11/21 - 11/24 910 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 10/17 - 10/20 892 RV 42 57 -15
CNN 9/5 - 9/9 1526 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 8/15 - 8/18 886 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 1466 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 5/28 - 5/31 902 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 4/25 - 4/28 913 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/14 - 3/17 914 RV 43 51 -8
CNN 1/30 - 2/2 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 1/10 - 1/11 848 A 37 57 -20
CNN 12/6 - 12/9 RV 40 53 -13
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 41 57 -16
CNN 10/4 - 10/7 920 RV 43 52 -9
CNN 9/6 - 9/9 923 RV 37 57 -20
CNN 8/9 - 8/12 921 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 6/14 - 6/17 901 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 44 51 -7
CNN 3/22 - 3/25 913 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 2/20 - 2/23 909 RV 39 56 -17
CNN 1/14 - 1/18 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 12/14 - 12/17 898 RV 36 59 -23
CNN 11/2 - 11/5 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 10/12 - 10/15 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 9/26 - 9/28 1037 A 37 56 -19
CNN 9/17 - 9/20 RV 42 53 -11
CNN 8/3 - 8/6 RV 40 56 -16


So, what do you want us to do, JACK? Squint our eyes and eliminate those bad polls and select our timeframe to create a particular outcome?




Well here, you're missing the point.

If you compare those CNN polls to its contemporaries, and specifically polls which generally are in agreement with CNN plus or minus a few points, you should find that they match up pretty well with those other polling firms on the dates that you're looking at.


The ABC NEWS/WASH POST polls, at least the last two, are hugely inconsistent. The on at the beginning of June was as much a pro-Trump outlier as Rasmussen Reports was. But the one that just aged off from the middle of July was as much an Anti-Trump outlier as Politico or Reuters.

Because of this, that is polling that you can't count on.


Obviously, Rasmussen and Reuters are going to have extreme differences in any two polls from the same timeframe, but we expect this because they are extreme outliers on either side, consistantly. Every time. They will usually reflect about the same difference wherever they stand at a given date.


Do you get it? Am I still not explaining that right?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:17 PM

THG


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.



NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.





Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


Not to worry Jack. Kiki doesn't understand what she's saying either. And that's because she is speaking gibberish.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.



NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.





Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


Not to worry Jack. Kiki doesn't understand what she's saying either. And that's because she is speaking gibberish.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.




At least she's trying.

Because of that, I'm curious to see what she has come up with and exactly what she is saying.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:23 PM

THG


Hey, in all seriousness. I want to thank all of you for continually posting these polls that are devastating to Trump. I'm not sure he'd be happy with you guys, but I sure am.

And again, welcome to the never Trump club.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 8:40 PM

THG


Lying isn't trying Jack. If you had half a brain you'd know that.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

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Monday, August 3, 2020 9:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


THUGGER - if you had half a brain - which seriously would be an improvement - you'd know that I'm saying that Trump isn't doing as well as JACK thinks he is.

But KEEP POSTING TO PROVE ME WRONG !

You're a hoot whenever you repeatedly shoot yourself in the foot !


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Monday, August 3, 2020 9:34 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 -3

last 3 polls average -8
2020 average -6.6


CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 -12
CNBC 7/10 - 7/12 -14
CNBC 6/26 - 6/28 -14
CNBC 6/19 - 6/22 -13
CNBC 6/12 - 6/14 -14
CNBC 5/29 - 5/31 -12
CNBC 5/15 - 5/17 -8
CNBC 5/1 - 5/3 -8
CNBC 4/3 - 4/6 3

last 3 polls average -13.3333333333333
2020 average -10.2222222222222


CNN 6/2 - 6/5 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 -6

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.8


Emerson 7/29 - 7/30 -6
Emerson 6/2 - 6/3 -7
Emerson 4/26 - 4/28 -9
Emerson 3/18 - 3/19 1
Emerson 2/16 - 2/18 4
Emerson 1/21 - 1/23 -1

last 3 polls average -7.33333333333333
2020 average -3


FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 -9
FOX News 6/13 - 6/16 -11
FOX News 5/17 - 5/20 -10
FOX News 4/4 - 4/7 0
FOX News 3/21 - 3/24 -3
FOX News 2/23 - 2/26 -5
FOX News 1/19 - 1/22 -9

last 3 polls average -10
2020 average -6.71428571428571


Gallup 7/1 - 7/23 -15
Gallup 6/8 - 6/30 -19
Gallup 5/28 - 6/4 -18
Gallup 5/1 - 5/13 1
Gallup 4/14 - 4/28 2
Gallup 4/1 - 4/14 -11
Gallup 3/13 - 3/22 4
Gallup 3/2 - 3/13 -8
Gallup 2/17 - 2/28 -4
Gallup 2/3 - 2/16 1
Gallup 1/16 - 1/29 -1
Gallup 1/2 - 1/15 -10

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -6.5


Harris 7/21 - 7/23 -12
Harris 6/17 - 6/18 -14
Harris 5/13 - 5/14 -6
Harris 4/14 - 4/16 -2
Harris 3/24 - 3/26 -4
Harris 2/26 - 2/28 -6
Harris 1/27 - 1/29 -8

last 3 polls average -10.6666666666667
2020 average -7.42857142857143


IBD/TIPP 7/25 - 7/28 -11
IBD/TIPP 6/27 - 6/30 -17
IBD/TIPP 5/31 - 6/3 -10
IBD/TIPP 4/26 - 4/29 0
IBD/TIPP 3/29 - 4/1 0
IBD/TIPP 2/20 - 2/29 -13
IBD/TIPP 1/23 - 1/30 -7
IBD/TIPP 1/3 - 1/11 -8

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.25

Monmouth 6/26 - 6/30 -13
Monmouth 5/28 - 6/1 -11
Monmouth 4/30 - 5/4 -7
Monmouth 4/3 - 4/7 -3
Monmouth 3/18 - 3/22 0
Monmouth 2/6 - 2/9 -7
Monmouth 1/16 - 1/20 -9

last 3 polls average -10.3333333333333
2020 average -7.14285714285714


NBC/WSJ 7/9 - 7/12 -14
NBC/WSJ 5/28 - 6/2 -8
NBC/WSJ 4/13 - 4/15 -5
NBC/WSJ 3/11 - 3/13 -5
NBC/WSJ 2/14 - 2/17 -3
NBC/WSJ 1/26 - 1/29 -5

last 3 polls average -9
2020 average -6.66666666666667


NPR/PBS 6/22 - 6/24 -16
NPR/PBS 6/2 - 6/3 -13
NPR/PBS 3/13 - 3/14 -7
NPR/PBS 2/13 - 2/16 -7
NPR/PBS 1/7 - 1/12 -11 -8.54545454545455

last 3 polls average -12
2020 average -8.54545454545455


Politico 7/24 - 7/26 -17 -16.3333333333333
Politico 7/17 - 7/19 -17
Politico 7/10 - 7/12 -15
Politico 6/26 - 6/29 -20
Politico 6/19 - 6/21 -19
Politico 6/12 - 6/14 -17
Politico 6/6 - 6/7 -19
Politico 5/29 - 6/1 -14
Politico 5/22 - 5/26 -17
Politico 5/15 - 5/18 -14
Politico 5/8 - 5/10 -10
Politico 5/2 - 5/3 -10
Politico 4/24 - 4/26 -8
Politico 4/18 - 4/19 -7
Politico 4/10 - 4/12 -7
Politico 4/3 - 4/5 -10
Politico 3/27 - 3/29 -7
Politico 3/20 - 3/22 -7
Politico 3/13 - 3/16 -11
Politico 3/6 - 3/8 -9
Politico 2/28 - 3/1 -9
Politico 2/21 - 2/23 -7
Politico 2/15 - 2/17 -12
Politico 2/7 - 1/9 -11
Politico 1/24 - 1/26 -14
Politico 1/17 - 1/19 -10
Politico 1/10 - 1/12 -11
Politico 1/4 - 1/5 -15

last 3 polls average -16.3333333333333
2020 average -12.2857142857143


Quinnipiac 7/9 - 7/13 -24
Quinnipiac 6/11 - 6/15 -13
Quinnipiac 5/14 - 5/18 -11
Quinnipiac 4/2 - 4/6 -6
Quinnipiac 3/5 - 3/8 -13
Quinnipiac 2/5 - 2/9 -10
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 1/27 -9
Quinnipiac 1/8 - 1/12 -9

last 3 polls average -16
2020 average -11.875


Rasmussen 7/29 - 8/2 4
Rasmussen 7/12 - 7/14 -2
Rasmussen 7/5 - 7/7 -10
Rasmussen 6/28 - 6/30 -10
Rasmussen 6/21 - 6/23 -5
Rasmussen 6/14 - 6/16 -7
Rasmussen 6/8 - 6/10 -13
Rasmussen 6/1 - 6/3 -6
Rasmussen 5/25 - 5/27 -9
Rasmussen 5/18 - 5/20 -9
Rasmussen 5/11 - 5/13 -3
Rasmussen 5/4 - 5/6 1
Rasmussen 4/27 - 4/29 -6
Rasmussen 4/20 - 4/22 -11
Rasmussen 4/13 - 4/15 -7
Rasmussen 4/6 - 4/8 -6
Rasmussen 3/30 - 4/1 -2
Rasmussen 3/23 - 3/25 -6
Rasmussen 3/16 - 3/18 -5
Rasmussen 3/9 - 3/11 -2
Rasmussen 3/2 - 3/4 -2
Rasmussen 2/24 - 2/26 5
Rasmussen 2/17 - 2/19 -1
Rasmussen 2/10 - 2/12 1
Rasmussen 1/26 - 1/28 -2
Rasmussen 1/14 - 1/16 -1
Rasmussen 1/5 - 1/7 -7

last 3 polls average -2.66666666666667
2020 average -4.48148148148148


Reuters 7/27 - 7/28 -18
Reuters 7/15 - 7/21 -18
Reuters 7/13 - 7/14 -16
Reuters 7/6 - 7/7 -17
Reuters 6/29 - 6/30 -16
Reuters 6/22 - 6/23 -20
Reuters 6/10 - 6/16 -19
Reuters 6/8 - 6/9 -15
Reuters 6/1 - 6/2 -17
Reuters 5/20 - 5/27 -12
Reuters 5/18 - 5/19 -13
Reuters 5/11 - 5/12 -16
Reuters 5/4 - 5/5 -8
Reuters 4/27 - 4/29 -11
Reuters 4/15 - 4/21 -11
Reuters 4/13 - 4/14 -5
Reuters 4/6 - 4/7 -13
Reuters 3/30 - 3/31 -6
Reuters 3/18 - 3/24 -7
Reuters 3/16 - 3/17 -11
Reuters 3/9 - 3/10 -12
Reuters 3/2 - 3/3 -10
Reuters 2/19 - 2/25 -12
Reuters 2/18 - 2/19 -12
Reuters 2/10 - 2/11 -11
Reuters 2/3 - 2/4 -13
Reuters 1/27 - 1/28 -15
Reuters 1/21 - 1/22 -14
Reuters 1/13 - 1/14 -15
Reuters 1/6 - 1/7 -11

last 3 polls average -17.3333333333333
2020 average -13.1111111111111


The Hill 7/24 - 7/26 -12
The Hill 7/7 - 7/10 -10
The Hill 6/22 - 6/23 -8
The Hill 6/8 - 6/10 -6
The Hill 6/1 - 6/4 -12
The Hill 5/13 - 5/14 0
The Hill 5/6 - 5/6 2
The Hill 4/19 - 4/20 0
The Hill 4/10 - 4/13 -4
The Hill 3/22 - 3/23 0
The Hill 3/8 - 3/9 -8
The Hill 2/14 - 2/15 -2
The Hill 2/6 - 2/7 -2
The Hill 1/13 - 1/14 -6
The Hill 1/3 - 1/4 -6
The Hill 12/13 - 12/14 -2
The Hill 12/8 - 12/9 -8
The Hill 11/8 - 11/9 -6
The Hill 10/27 - 10/28 -8
The Hill 9/28 - 9/29 -2
The Hill 9/11 - 9/12 -6
The Hill 8/23 - 8/24 -8
The Hill 8/18 - 8/20 -8
The Hill 8/5 - 8/6 -10
The Hill 7/20 - 7/21 -8
The Hill 7/8 - 7/9 -6
The Hill 6/25 - 6/26 -10
The Hill 6/7 - 6/8 -10
The Hill 5/24 - 5/25 -12
The Hill 5/10 - 5/11 -12
The Hill 4/29 - 4/30 -8
The Hill 4/22 - 4/23 -10
The Hill 4/15 - 4/16 -8
The Hill 4/1 - 4/2 -8
The Hill 3/18 - 3/19 -10
The Hill 3/5 - 3/6 -10
The Hill 2/17 - 2/18 -10
The Hill 2/7 - 2/8 -6
The Hill 1/18 - 1/22 -12
The Hill 1/8 - 1/11 -12

last 3 polls average -10
2020 average -7.1


YouGov 7/26 - 7/28 -9
YouGov 7/19 - 7/21 -14
YouGov 7/12 - 7/14 -15
YouGov 7/5 - 7/7 -15
YouGov 6/28 - 6/30 -15
YouGov 6/21 - 6/23 -12
YouGov 6/14 - 6/16 -13
YouGov 6/7 - 6/9 -13
YouGov 5/31 - 6/2 -12
YouGov 5/23 - 5/26 -8
YouGov 5/17 - 5/19 -6
YouGov 5/10 - 5/12 -4
YouGov 5/3 - 5/5 -5
YouGov 4/26 - 4/28 -9
YouGov 4/19 - 4/21 -5
YouGov 4/12 - 4/14 -8
YouGov 4/5 - 4/7 -8
YouGov 3/29 - 3/31 -3
YouGov 3/22 - 3/24 -4
YouGov 3/15 - 3/17 -10
YouGov 3/8 - 3/10 -7
YouGov 3/1 - 3/3 -9
YouGov 2/23 - 2/25 -9
YouGov 2/16 - 2/18 -11
YouGov 2/9 - 2/11 -7
YouGov 2/2 - 2/4 -10
YouGov 1/26 - 1/28 -9
YouGov 1/19 - 1/21 -4
YouGov 1/11 - 1/14 -4
YouGov 1/5 - 1/7 -11

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.96666666666667


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Monday, August 3, 2020 10:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Okay, I see your data now.

Quote:
THUGGER - if you had half a brain - which seriously would be an improvement - you'd know that I'm saying that Trump isn't doing as well as JACK thinks he is.


I don't think that I was ever saying that Trump is doing as well as you think I'm saying that Trump is doing right now.

Of course he's off of his high for the year. ESPECIALLY if you're looking at the last three polls compared to the entire year, since even right now is lower than he was doing in the first 4 or 5 months, and in most cases the previous two polls were his rock bottom for the year.



Once again, that's not my point.

The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.

Ted still says to this day that this is not the case.

This is because Ted doesn't know how to read.




And he still thinks that I'm showing him good news when I show these polls because they have Trump down. They've always had Trump down. They will always have Trump down. Even in 2016 before he was elected. Even right before he's reelected in November. Even every day all four years of his second term.




He doesn't need 50 to win. If it were any other president I would say he needs 47. But because it's Trump and people just aren't saying that they're Trump supporters IRL because they don't want to be abused by people like Ted and Second's sockpuppet and Wishy, Trump only needs 45 going into election week to win.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, August 3, 2020 10:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Quote:
The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.
Except the polls. And the betting sites.

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