REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Elections; 2024

POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 5, 2024 00:26
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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:03 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by THG:
Time for the Truth. Trump won in 2020 and is winning in a landslide in 2024. No matter, we're going to steal it again.

T





Trump did win in 2020.

He will win by far too much for you to cheat this time.



I have math on my side. You have nothing.





I know, he did win in 2020 and we stole it from him. We fucked you and are going to do it again. And yes, he is going to win in a landslide again. No matter, we're going to steal it again. How are you going to stop us?

Wicked funny...

T




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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


First off, please... Hillary Clinton and the Democrats still believe that Clinton was cheated out of the 2016 election win too. Let's stop pretending it's only Trump voters that don't believe the election results when their guy lost.



Secondly... No. You're not going to steal it again.

You have neither the backing nor the ability to do so.

There's zero chance you could ever cover the losses of blacks, Latinos, union members and males to offset how bad the loss is going to be for Harris.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Allow me to elaborate on that...


On this day in History, November 4th:

0000000000000000---2024----000---2020---000----2016-----
National000000000Trump +0.0000Biden +6.9000Clinton0 +3.2
--------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin0000000Harris +0.4000Biden +6.7000Clinton0 +6.5
Pennsylvania0000Trump0 +0.3000Biden +2.6000Clinton0 +2.1
Ohio000000000000Trump0 +7.3000Trump +1.0000Trump000 +2.2
Michigan00000000Harris +1.2000Biden +5.1000Clinton0 +3.6
Arizona000000000Trump0 +2.7000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +4.0
Nevada0000000000Trump0 +1.0000Biden +3.6000Trump 000+0.8
North Carolina00Trump0 +1.5000Trump +0.2000Trump 000+0.8
Georgia000000000Trump0 +1.7000Biden +0.2000Trump000 +4.8
Florida000000000Trump0 +8.0000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +0.4

Here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2020...

National:000000 Trump +6.9
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.9
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +6.3
Michigan:000000 Trump +3.9
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.6
Nevada:00000000 Trump +4.3
North Carolina: Trump +1.3
Georgia:0000000 Trump +1.5
Florida:0000000 Trump +8.9

And here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2016...

National:000000 Trump +3.2
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.1
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +5.1
Michigan:000000 Trump +2.4
Arizona:0000000 Trump -1.3
Nevada:00000000 Trump +0.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.7
Georgia:0000000 Trump -3.1
Florida:0000000 Trump +7.6


Michigan Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan
/trump-vs-harris


Wisconsin Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsi
n/trump-vs-harris


4 years ago when Trump lost, Joe Biden was sitting on a +6.9 lead in national polling.

8 years ago when Hillary Clinton lost, she was sitting at +3.2 in national polling.

Today, the day before the 2024 election, national polling is a tie.





COMPARISONS TO THE 2020 ELECTION:

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

2020 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Biden +4.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Biden +1.2 (50.0% Biden / 48.8% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.1 (53.3% Trump / 45.2% Biden)
Michigan:000000 Biden +1.8 (50.6% Biden / 47.8% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Biden +2.4 (50.1% Biden / 47.7% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +1.3 (49.9% Trump / 48.6% Biden)
Georgia:0000000 Biden +0.2 (49.5% Biden / 49.3% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +3.3 (51.2% Biden / 47.9% Trump)


What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...

National:000000 Biden POLLS: +6.9 - ACTUAL: +4.4 = 2020 BIAS: -2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden POLLS: +6.7 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: -6.4
Pennsylvania:00 Biden POLLS: +2.6 - ACTUAL: +1.2 = 2020 BIAS: -1.4
Ohio:0000000000 Biden POLLS: -1.0 - ACTUAL: -8.1 = 2020 BIAS: -7.1
Michigan:000000 Biden POLLS: +5.1 - ACTUAL: +1.8 = 2020 BIAS: -3.3
Arizona:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: +0.6
Nevada:00000000 Biden POLLS: +3.3 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
North Carolina: Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: -1.3 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
Georgia:0000000 Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: +0.2 = 2020 BIAS: +0.4
Florida:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -3.3 = 2020 BIAS: -4.2



Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2020 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2020 BIAS: -2.4 = Trump + 2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2020 BIAS: -6.4 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2020 BIAS: -1.4 = Trump +3.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2020 BIAS: -7.1 = Trump +15.0
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +2.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.6 = Trump +2.1
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.1
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.6
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.4 = Trump +1.3
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +11.3



COMPARISONS TO THE 2016 ELECTION:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016

2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)


Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...

(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.

A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)


National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.2 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: -1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +6.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -7.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.1 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.8
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.2 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.0
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.6 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -3.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: -0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +3.2
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.8 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.4
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.4 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.8


Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.7
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.8 = Trump +3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.0 = Trump +13.3
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2016 BIAS: -3.8 = Trump +5.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.5 = Trump +3.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +3.2 = Harris +4.2
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +4.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.4 = Trump +2.1
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.2 = Trump +9.2




Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in 2020, but only by about half a point. In 2020 all polling was bad in favor of Joe Biden* on both the national and the state level save for a +0.6 bias toward Trump in Arizona. Against Clinton in 2016 it was Nevada that polled Trump too high, with the +3.2 bias in favor of Trump in Nevada being the one true anomaly over the previous two election cycles. (The bias for Nevada in 2020 was +1.1 points in favor of Joe Biden*) Because of this Nevada bias anomaly in 2016, Harris does win Nevada quite convincingly with current polling data vs. the 2016 biases. I'm not convinced of this result, however, since polling in Arizona and Nevada has remained relatively tight for 3 election cycles and much closer to reality, no matter who won.

This is why I've called every BG state save for one or two. I'm more worried about Nevada not going to Trump than any other swing state out there. My other reservation would be shared between Arizona and Wisconsin, and I only throw Wisconsin in there because of things that JSF has said about his state Government.

With the National Level polling bump that Clinton got last minute, the biases from 2016 now put Trump over Harris on the Popular Vote when comparing vs. the 2016 biases as well as the 2020 biases. The only thing that Harris wins on any level when comparing to previous cycle polling is Nevada vs. the 2016 polls/results.

There would have to be a MASSIVE change in the way all polling firms operated this year to swing the aggregate so far this way merely through changing up their collective polling methodologies.

Also, although I don't provide the data here, I have reason to believe that states such as Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota are in play as well.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:44 PM

THG


Yup, Trumps going to win big. Just like last time, he is going to get way more votes. But like last time, we're going to steal his win from him. Since you don't know how we did it in 2020 how are you going to stop us?

T


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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looking forward to laughing at you tomorrow night.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Probabilistic Uncertainty
https://xkcd.com/3007/


"One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.




--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 10:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I just noticed as of today we're looking at not 2 but 3 GOP senate pickups now.

How about that.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.

6ix, your motto should be "I expect nothing and that is good enough for me." You've already knocked a couple of decades off your life with alcohol, tobacco and not brushing your teeth, 6ix. You live with no purpose and no sense.

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you. I'll state that Trump's election will waste $7 trillion and wreck the economy. See George W Bush for how Republican Presidents bring ruin with them. Remember Bush crashing the economy? Bush increasing the National Debt? Trump's got the same plan designed by similar nincompoops.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:20 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.

6ix, your motto should be "I expect nothing and that is good enough for me." You've already knocked a couple of decades off your life with alcohol, tobacco and not brushing your teeth, 6ix. You live with no purpose and no sense.



I've got purpose enough. And I have zero responsibility or debt. My only real worry on any given day is how to fill my time.

What drives you, other than going around like you're God and judging everyone else without ever looking in the mirror and just being an absolute unbearable asshole to everyone you meet?

Quote:

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you.


Go fetch it. I'm not your bitch.



I'm sure you've already read it. You read everything I write and obsess over me.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:26 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Joe Rogan just endorsed Trump.

That's worth about the weight of 10,000 Liz Cheney's for Harris.

Tick Tock



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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