REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Elections; 2024

POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Saturday, November 23, 2024 19:33
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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:03 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by THG:
Time for the Truth. Trump won in 2020 and is winning in a landslide in 2024. No matter, we're going to steal it again.

T





Trump did win in 2020.

He will win by far too much for you to cheat this time.



I have math on my side. You have nothing.





I know, he did win in 2020 and we stole it from him. We fucked you and are going to do it again. And yes, he is going to win in a landslide again. No matter, we're going to steal it again. How are you going to stop us?

Wicked funny...

T




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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


First off, please... Hillary Clinton and the Democrats still believe that Clinton was cheated out of the 2016 election win too. Let's stop pretending it's only Trump voters that don't believe the election results when their guy lost.



Secondly... No. You're not going to steal it again.

You have neither the backing nor the ability to do so.

There's zero chance you could ever cover the losses of blacks, Latinos, union members and males to offset how bad the loss is going to be for Harris.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Allow me to elaborate on that...


On this day in History, November 4th:

0000000000000000---2024----000---2020---000----2016-----
National000000000Trump +0.0000Biden +6.9000Clinton0 +3.2
--------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin0000000Harris +0.4000Biden +6.7000Clinton0 +6.5
Pennsylvania0000Trump0 +0.3000Biden +2.6000Clinton0 +2.1
Ohio000000000000Trump0 +7.3000Trump +1.0000Trump000 +2.2
Michigan00000000Harris +1.2000Biden +5.1000Clinton0 +3.6
Arizona000000000Trump0 +2.7000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +4.0
Nevada0000000000Trump0 +1.0000Biden +3.6000Trump 000+0.8
North Carolina00Trump0 +1.5000Trump +0.2000Trump 000+0.8
Georgia000000000Trump0 +1.7000Biden +0.2000Trump000 +4.8
Florida000000000Trump0 +8.0000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +0.4

Here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2020...

National:000000 Trump +6.9
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.9
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +6.3
Michigan:000000 Trump +3.9
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.6
Nevada:00000000 Trump +4.3
North Carolina: Trump +1.3
Georgia:0000000 Trump +1.5
Florida:0000000 Trump +8.9

And here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2016...

National:000000 Trump +3.2
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.1
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +5.1
Michigan:000000 Trump +2.4
Arizona:0000000 Trump -1.3
Nevada:00000000 Trump +0.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.7
Georgia:0000000 Trump -3.1
Florida:0000000 Trump +7.6


Michigan Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan
/trump-vs-harris


Wisconsin Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsi
n/trump-vs-harris


4 years ago when Trump lost, Joe Biden was sitting on a +6.9 lead in national polling.

8 years ago when Hillary Clinton lost, she was sitting at +3.2 in national polling.

Today, the day before the 2024 election, national polling is a tie.





COMPARISONS TO THE 2020 ELECTION:

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

2020 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Biden +4.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Biden +1.2 (50.0% Biden / 48.8% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.1 (53.3% Trump / 45.2% Biden)
Michigan:000000 Biden +1.8 (50.6% Biden / 47.8% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Biden +2.4 (50.1% Biden / 47.7% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +1.3 (49.9% Trump / 48.6% Biden)
Georgia:0000000 Biden +0.2 (49.5% Biden / 49.3% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +3.3 (51.2% Biden / 47.9% Trump)


What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...

National:000000 Biden POLLS: +6.9 - ACTUAL: +4.4 = 2020 BIAS: -2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden POLLS: +6.7 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: -6.4
Pennsylvania:00 Biden POLLS: +2.6 - ACTUAL: +1.2 = 2020 BIAS: -1.4
Ohio:0000000000 Biden POLLS: -1.0 - ACTUAL: -8.1 = 2020 BIAS: -7.1
Michigan:000000 Biden POLLS: +5.1 - ACTUAL: +1.8 = 2020 BIAS: -3.3
Arizona:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: +0.6
Nevada:00000000 Biden POLLS: +3.3 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
North Carolina: Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: -1.3 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
Georgia:0000000 Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: +0.2 = 2020 BIAS: +0.4
Florida:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -3.3 = 2020 BIAS: -4.2



Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2020 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2020 BIAS: -2.4 = Trump + 2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2020 BIAS: -6.4 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2020 BIAS: -1.4 = Trump +3.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2020 BIAS: -7.1 = Trump +15.0
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +2.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.6 = Trump +2.1
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.1
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.6
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.4 = Trump +1.3
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +11.3



COMPARISONS TO THE 2016 ELECTION:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016

2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)


Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...

(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.

A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)


National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.2 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: -1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +6.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -7.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.1 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.8
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.2 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.0
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.6 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -3.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: -0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +3.2
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.8 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.4
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.4 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.8


Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.7
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.8 = Trump +3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.0 = Trump +13.3
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2016 BIAS: -3.8 = Trump +5.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.5 = Trump +3.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +3.2 = Harris +4.2
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +4.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.4 = Trump +2.1
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.2 = Trump +9.2




Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in 2020, but only by about half a point. In 2020 all polling was bad in favor of Joe Biden* on both the national and the state level save for a +0.6 bias toward Trump in Arizona. Against Clinton in 2016 it was Nevada that polled Trump too high, with the +3.2 bias in favor of Trump in Nevada being the one true anomaly over the previous two election cycles. (The bias for Nevada in 2020 was +1.1 points in favor of Joe Biden*) Because of this Nevada bias anomaly in 2016, Harris does win Nevada quite convincingly with current polling data vs. the 2016 biases. I'm not convinced of this result, however, since polling in Arizona and Nevada has remained relatively tight for 3 election cycles and much closer to reality, no matter who won.

This is why I've called every BG state save for one or two. I'm more worried about Nevada not going to Trump than any other swing state out there. My other reservation would be shared between Arizona and Wisconsin, and I only throw Wisconsin in there because of things that JSF has said about his state Government.

With the National Level polling bump that Clinton got last minute, the biases from 2016 now put Trump over Harris on the Popular Vote when comparing vs. the 2016 biases as well as the 2020 biases. The only thing that Harris wins on any level when comparing to previous cycle polling is Nevada vs. the 2016 polls/results.

There would have to be a MASSIVE change in the way all polling firms operated this year to swing the aggregate so far this way merely through changing up their collective polling methodologies.

Also, although I don't provide the data here, I have reason to believe that states such as Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota are in play as well.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:44 PM

THG


Yup, Trumps going to win big. Just like last time, he is going to get way more votes. But like last time, we're going to steal his win from him. Since you don't know how we did it in 2020 how are you going to stop us?

T


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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looking forward to laughing at you tomorrow night.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Probabilistic Uncertainty
https://xkcd.com/3007/


"One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 8:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.




--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 10:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I just noticed as of today we're looking at not 2 but 3 GOP senate pickups now.

How about that.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.

6ix, your motto should be "I expect nothing and that is good enough for me." You've already knocked a couple of decades off your life with alcohol, tobacco and not brushing your teeth, 6ix. You live with no purpose and no sense.

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you. I'll state that Trump's election will waste $7 trillion and wreck the economy. See George W Bush for how Republican Presidents bring ruin with them. Remember Bush crashing the economy? Bush increasing the National Debt? Trump's got the same plan designed by similar nincompoops.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:20 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah, well... I live most my life by the motto "expect nothing and you won't be disappointed".


At the end of the day, I really don't care one way or another, and I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country if that's the way this ultimately goes. I'm just having a lot of fun antagonizing the both of you with facts and numbers right now is all. You can put on whatever brave face you'd like, but we all know you're pissing yourselves right now.


Just like last time, I'm not going to lose my mind if Trump loses like you did when he won.

We know you won't change either. Whether Trump wins or loses tomorrow, you're going to spend every single day for the next 4 years bitching about Trump.

6ix, your motto should be "I expect nothing and that is good enough for me." You've already knocked a couple of decades off your life with alcohol, tobacco and not brushing your teeth, 6ix. You live with no purpose and no sense.



I've got purpose enough. And I have zero responsibility or debt. My only real worry on any given day is how to fill my time.

What drives you, other than going around like you're God and judging everyone else without ever looking in the mirror and just being an absolute unbearable asshole to everyone you meet?

Quote:

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you.


Go fetch it. I'm not your bitch.



I'm sure you've already read it. You read everything I write and obsess over me.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 12:26 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Joe Rogan just endorsed Trump.

That's worth about the weight of 10,000 Liz Cheney's for Harris.

Tick Tock



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 3:22 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


There is zero reason why we should not know the results of the election tonight. Outside of 2000, we always used to know who won the election without having to wait days or even weeks to get results.

No matter who wins, any county that can't finish the vote counting tonight should be considered suspect.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 6:09 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I've got purpose enough. And I have zero responsibility or debt. My only real worry on any given day is how to fill my time.

What drives you, other than going around like you're God and judging everyone else without ever looking in the mirror and just being an absolute unbearable asshole to everyone you meet?

Quote:

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you.


Go fetch it. I'm not your bitch.



I'm sure you've already read it. You read everything I write and obsess over me.

6ix, you'll break any law, any moral code, cheat on any test, and shirk responsibility if you think you won't be caught and punished. This is how Trump lives. It is how all the Trumptards behave. You even gave an example on this page, not just from your daily life as a goof-off and swindler of government benefits you don't deserve:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
There is zero reason why we should not know the results of the election tonight. Outside of 2000, we always used to know who won the election without having to wait days or even weeks to get results.

No matter who wins, any county that can't finish the vote counting tonight should be considered suspect.
--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

Trump plans to declare victory before the polls close. He and you have been declaring he already won for years because there are no consequences for either of you being liars since nobody will murder you for making false claims or even punch you in the face. Huge amount of reporting on Trump falsely declaring victory: https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+declare+victory Everybody knows Trump is going to lie about victory. Trumptards don't mind because they are lying sacks of shits and Trump is not going to stop lying because nobody will murder him for lying or even punch him in the face. When there are no consequences for bad behavior by Trump and his Trumptards, their behavior will get steadily worse and worse. You'll break any law, any moral code, cheat on any test, and shirk responsibility if you think you won't be caught and punished.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 6:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Dick Van Dyke announces presidential endorsement on eve of US election
(In many sly words, Van Dyke said Trump is not normal. Trump is a disease)

‘Hatred is not the norm. Prejudice is not the norm,’ said the acting legend in a video

By Greg Evans | Tuesday 05 November 2024 07:42 GMT

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dick-van-d
yke-harris-trump-us-election-b2641497.html


“Fifty years ago – May 31st, 1964 — I was on the podium with Dr Martin Luther King, who was addressing some of the 60,000 people in the Colosseum in LA,” he said.

“I was there to read a message written by Rod Serling, the guy who wrote The Twilight Zone. I got it out the other day and I think it means as much today, if not more, than it did then, so if you don’t mind, I’d like to read it.”

Van Dyke, who wore a Ralph Lauren polo shirt and glasses, read a short section of the original address titled “A Most Non-Political Speech”.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 1:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I've got purpose enough. And I have zero responsibility or debt. My only real worry on any given day is how to fill my time.

What drives you, other than going around like you're God and judging everyone else without ever looking in the mirror and just being an absolute unbearable asshole to everyone you meet?

Quote:

Where did you state this case? --> "I've already stated my case for why a Harris win would also be very good for me and for the future of the country. . ." I don't remember reading that confession of indifference from you.


Go fetch it. I'm not your bitch.



I'm sure you've already read it. You read everything I write and obsess over me.

6ix, you'll break any law, any moral code, cheat on any test, and shirk responsibility if you think you won't be caught and punished.



Where's your proof.

Meanwhile, in reality, do you have any more pirate links for movies that are still in theaters or Firefly comic books today?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 4:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Just got back from voting.

First time I ever had to wait, but I expected that since I didn't go first thing in the morning this time.

That gave me an opportunity to talk a few minutes with the people at the front. They told me had I gotten their first thing like I usually did I might have had my longest wait so far. People were lined up 45 minutes before the doors opened this morning. Our district is rather small and they said they usually only get around 100 voters on any given election day.

This year, before I voted with more than 4 hours left to go, the count was 254.


Trump is going to run away with this thing.

Tick Tock



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 4:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Now I'm reading that Democrats could lose 5 senate seats tonight.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 4:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


On this day in History, ELECTION DAY:

0000000000000000---2024----000---2020---000----2016-----
National00000000Harris +0.1000Biden +7.2000Clinton0 +3.2
--------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin0000000Harris +0.4000Biden +6.7000Clinton0 +6.5
Pennsylvania0000Trump0 +0.4000Biden +1.2000Clinton0 +2.1
Ohio000000000000Trump0 +9.3000Trump +1.0000Trump000 +2.2
Michigan00000000Harris +0.4000Biden +6.7000Clinton0 +3.6
Arizona000000000Trump0 +2.8000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +4.0
Nevada0000000000Trump0 +0.6000Biden +2.4000Trump 000+0.8
North Carolina00Trump0 +1.2000Trump +0.2000Trump 000+0.8
Georgia000000000Trump0 +1.3000Trump +1.0000Trump000 +4.8
Florida000000000Trump0 +8.0000Biden +0.9000Trump000 +0.4

Here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2020...

National:000000 Trump +7.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +1.6
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.3
Michigan:000000 Trump +3.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.7
Nevada:00000000 Trump +3.0
North Carolina: Trump +1.0
Georgia:0000000 Trump +0.3
Florida:0000000 Trump +7.1

And here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2016...

National:000000 Trump +3.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.1
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.5
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +7.1
Michigan:000000 Trump +3.1
Arizona:0000000 Trump -1.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump -0.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump -3.4
Florida:0000000 Trump +7.6

4 years ago when Trump lost, Joe Biden was sitting on a +7.2 lead in national polling.

8 years ago when Hillary Clinton lost, she was sitting at +3.2 in national polling.

Today, Election Day, Harris has only +a 0.1 lead in national polling.





COMPARISONS TO THE 2020 ELECTION:

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

2020 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Biden +4.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Biden +1.2 (50.0% Biden / 48.8% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.1 (53.3% Trump / 45.2% Biden)
Michigan:000000 Biden +1.8 (50.6% Biden / 47.8% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Biden +2.4 (50.1% Biden / 47.7% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +1.3 (49.9% Trump / 48.6% Biden)
Georgia:0000000 Biden +0.2 (49.5% Biden / 49.3% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +3.3 (51.2% Biden / 47.9% Trump)


What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...

National:000000 Biden POLLS: +6.2 - ACTUAL: +4.4 = 2020 BIAS: -2.7
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden POLLS: +6.7 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: -6.4
Pennsylvania:00 Biden POLLS: +1.2 - ACTUAL: +1.2 = 2020 BIAS: -0.0
Ohio:0000000000 Biden POLLS: -1.0 - ACTUAL: -8.1 = 2020 BIAS: -7.1
Michigan:000000 Biden POLLS: +4.2 - ACTUAL: +1.8 = 2020 BIAS: -2.4
Arizona:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: +0.6
Nevada:00000000 Biden POLLS: +2.4 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2020 BIAS: -0.0
North Carolina: Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: -1.3 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
Georgia:0000000 Biden POLLS: -1.0 - ACTUAL: +0.2 = 2020 BIAS: +1.2
Florida:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -3.3 = 2020 BIAS: -4.2



Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2020 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2020 BIAS: -2.7 = Trump + 2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2020 BIAS: -6.4 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.4 - 2020 BIAS: -0.0 = Trump +0.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +9.3 - 2020 BIAS: -7.1 = Trump +16.4
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -0.5 - 2020 BIAS: -2.4 = Trump +1.9
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.8 - 2020 BIAS: +0.6 = Trump +2.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +0.6 - 2020 BIAS: -0.0 = Trump +0.6
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.2 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.3
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.3 - 2020 BIAS: +1.2 = Trump +0.1
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +11.3



COMPARISONS TO THE 2016 ELECTION:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016

2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)


Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...

(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.

A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)


National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.2 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: -1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +6.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -7.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.1 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.8
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.2 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.0
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.6 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -3.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: -0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +3.2
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.8 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.4
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.4 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.8


Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.7
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.8 = Trump +3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.0 = Trump +13.3
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2016 BIAS: -3.8 = Trump +5.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.5 = Trump +3.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +3.2 = Harris +4.2
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +4.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.4 = Trump +2.1
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.2 = Trump +9.2




Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in 2020, but only by about half a point. In 2020 all polling was bad in favor of Joe Biden* on both the national and the state level save for a +0.6 bias toward Trump in Arizona. Against Clinton in 2016 it was Nevada that polled Trump too high, with the +3.2 bias in favor of Trump in Nevada being the one true anomaly over the previous two election cycles. (The bias for Nevada in 2020 was +1.1 points in favor of Joe Biden*) Because of this Nevada bias anomaly in 2016, Harris does win Nevada quite convincingly with current polling data vs. the 2016 biases. I'm not convinced of this result, however, since polling in Arizona and Nevada has remained relatively tight for 3 election cycles and much closer to reality, no matter who won.

This is why I've called every BG state save for one or two. I'm more worried about Nevada not going to Trump than any other swing state out there. My other reservation would be shared between Arizona and Wisconsin, and I only throw Wisconsin in there because of things that JSF has said about his state Government.

With the National Level polling bump that Clinton got last minute, the biases from 2016 now put Trump over Harris on the Popular Vote when comparing vs. the 2016 biases as well as the 2020 biases. The only thing that Harris wins on any level when comparing to previous cycle polling is Nevada vs. the 2016 polls/results.

There would have to be a MASSIVE change in the way all polling firms operated this year to swing the aggregate so far this way merely through changing up their collective polling methodologies.

Also, although I don't provide the data here, I have reason to believe that states such as Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota are in play as well.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 5:21 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
This isn’t a popularity contest™
https://www.270towin.com/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 6:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
This isn’t a popularity contest™
https://www.270towin.com/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two




Haha...

That's a rather presumptuous way for them to start out the night.

Looks like Harris got 292 Electoral Votes.

Get the tarps back out. Game over. Democrats win.




--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 6:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
There is zero reason why we should not know the results of the election tonight. Outside of 2000, we always used to know who won the election without having to wait days or even weeks to get results.

No matter who wins, any county that can't finish the vote counting tonight should be considered suspect.





Here's a nice list that the NYT collected for us of swing states that Democrats plan to rig if we don't run away with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-pr
esident.html


Quote:

Tracking the swing states

There are 93 electoral votes at stake among the seven swing states. If Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump win all the states they are expected to win easily, Ms. Harris will need 44 of these electoral votes to secure the presidency. Mr. Trump will need 51.
Tracking the swing states

Arizona: First results are expected around 10 p.m. Eastern time. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes days. Officials in Maricopa County said full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days.

Georgia: Most voters tend to vote early in person. Vote reporting is usually relatively fast, though the state could still be counting corrected mail ballots, overseas and provisional ballots for several days.

Michigan: Most votes are generally in by noon Eastern time on the day after the election, and the state has passed reforms that could contribute to faster counting.

Nevada: Counting usually takes days, but new technology and rules could speed up reporting. Postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9.

North Carolina: Votes have typically been counted very quickly, with nearly all votes reported by midnight. New rules mean that early voting results will no longer be reported immediately at poll close time.

Pennsylvania: Counting is expected to extend beyond election night, primarily because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day.

Wisconsin: Complete unofficial results are not expected until the morning after the election. In some places, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 7:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


New York Times has always had the best interactive maps, and so far this evening I haven't found anybody who does it better.


Interesting thing to note about Indiana right now.

Only 14% of the entire state has been counted, but 65% of Indianapolis, the most obviously large Democrat bloc in the state, has already been counted.


That being said, Trump only won Indiana with 57% of the state's vote against Joe Biden* in 2020.

Currently, with pretty much EVERYTHING outside of Indianapolis not haven't been counted yet and 2/3rds of Indianapolis already counted, Trump is leading 61% to 37% right now.

Even worse for Harris is that she's only up by 1,300 votes out of the 110,000 ballots counted in Indianapolis.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 7:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
New York Times has always had the best interactive maps, and so far this evening I haven't found anybody who does it better.


Interesting thing to note about Indiana right now.

Only 14% of the entire state has been counted, but 65% of Indianapolis, the most obviously large Democrat bloc in the state, has already been counted.


That being said, Trump only won Indiana with 57% of the state's vote against Joe Biden* in 2020.

Currently, with pretty much EVERYTHING outside of Indianapolis not haven't been counted yet and 2/3rds of Indianapolis already counted, Trump is leading 61% to 37% right now.

Even worse for Harris is that she's only up by 1,300 votes out of the 110,000 ballots counted in Indianapolis.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.







WOW!

Check this out over at the WaPo...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/indiana-2020/


Joe Biden* won Indianapolis 247,772 to 134,175. (381,947 Total)

Right now, with 65% of Indianapolis counted according to the NYT, Harris is only leading Trump 55,976 to 54,656. (110,632... 65% of roughly 166,000 Total).

Not only is the margin almost nothing, but if NYT isn't in error right now, this means that voting in Indianapolis has dropped in 2024 to only 43% of the 2020 turnout.

Is this the canary in the coalmine for how tonight plays out across the country?



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 7:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You guys got Vermont!

--------------------------------------------------

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He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 7:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


What the shit just happened in Laurens County in South Carolina????

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/state/south-caroli
na


With half their vote in, Jill Stein just got 10,000 votes to Harris' 4,000 votes. Trump got 26 votes.

There's got to be a Jill Stein cult in that county or something. Maybe all the NeoCons and The Lincoln Project people all secretly bought up 2/3rds of the community and that's where they hide out?

Either way, I sure as hell wouldn't advise the 26 Trump voters to ever put a Trump sign up on their lawn.

I want to know the story behind those election results.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 7:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My 2016 and 2020 models pointed to a Trump win in Florida between +9.2 and +11.3.

Right now, with 75% of the vote counted, Trump is leading Harris 54% to 45%.





ETA: 55% to 44% with 78% counted in Florida. We've just jumped from the low end of the models to the high end.

Will Trump win Florida by more than 11%?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Shenanigans already? Probably not. It's Indiana. No reason to cheat here....

NYT's latest update for Marion County:



Up until 5 minutes before I took that screenshot they had it stuck at 65%. This is Indianapolis, where 110k votes had already been counted.

We'll call it a glitch.... for now.


Funny how all these glitches only ever happen in Democrat strongholds though, ain't it?



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:07 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Trump stock was kind of weird today

This is nothing compared to what's likely to happen tomorrow. Depending on the election results, DJT will either skyrocket at the opening bell or plummet to nothing. If Trump wins, he'll be the first candidate in history to make billions of dollars in addition to having exclusive control over our nuclear forces.



https://jabberwocking.com/trump-stock-was-kind-of-weird-today/



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wow. They're really going to get Democrat's hopes up in Pennsylvania, aren't they?

Let's start the night off showing Harris winning 76% to 23%, but don't nobody mention that 31% of Pittsburgh and 16% of Philadelphia have already been counted and that's the only thing that's been counted so far.



ETA: Looks like we'll kick of Michigan with Detroit and tell everyone that Harris is up +47 points in Michigan too.


--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


90% of the votes are in for Florida and Trump leads Harris 56% to 43%, or 13 points.

This is 1.7 points beyond what either the higher of my 2016 or 2020 model suggested the outcome would be.



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


As of 7:20 PM, the NYT live forecast is saying the electoral college will be Trump 276 and Harris 262.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-pr
esident.html


You wish it looked that good for you in the end.

We're just getting started.



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He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm calling the race now.

Trump wins.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 9:32 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm calling the race now.

Trump wins.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

I'm calling it now: Trump gets two in head, one in the heart. Thanks, Biden!

‘I Think We’re in Trouble’: Is There a Future for MAGA After Trump?

Trump could be reelected. But what happens to his movement after that?

By David Siders | 11/04/2024 05:00 AM EST

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/maga-trump-2024-elec
tions-00185283


TEMPE, Arizona — The tailgate was aimed at boosting a protégé, but it was Donald Trump whose name and image were plastered everywhere — on the banner hung from Republicans’ table outside the Arizona State University football game, on baseball caps, on signs they carried and stickers they fixed to tank-tops on a Friday night where the pavement was still hot and the temperature, at dusk, hovered around 95 degrees.

They might have turned out to support the protégé, Kari Lake, but it was his movement — Trump’s — that the tailgaters were starting to worry about.

What would become of MAGA when Trump — either in four years if he wins the presidency again or sooner if he loses — is gone? Could someone else replace him?

“I’ve often wondered that,” said Terri Seiber, who sat beside me on the curb in front of two porta potties, a Trump-Vance yard sign in the dark beside her. “We don’t have anybody in the Republican Party who’s even close.”

Not Lake, she said. “No, I don’t think so.” Seiber had seen her collapse in the gubernatorial race two years ago and knew she was running behind her Democratic opponent in the Senate contest, now, too.

Not JD Vance, Trump’s running mate. “No. He sounds like a real great guy. But Trump, he’s just got that oomph about him.”

Who else?

“It does make me worry,” she told me. “The movement is mostly him.”


I’d come to Arizona to ask not about the presidential contest that culminates Tuesday but about what will happen after that, about the post-Trump future of MAGA. If Republicans anywhere have an answer, it should be here. For all its history of electing iconoclasts — politicians like Barry Goldwater and John McCain, but also Kyrsten Sinema and Jeff Flake — Arizona has also seen them run their course.

In the MAGA era, there are few states where Republicans have remade themselves so completely in service to the cause. Arizona was the site, not far from Lake’s tailgate, of the farcical “audit” of the 2020 election and provided a border-state backdrop for Trump’s nativist, anti-migrant rhetoric. Republicans elevated hard-liners at every level in their primaries and paid an uncommonly high price, losing both Senate seats and, in 2020, flipping Democratic in a presidential race for the first time since 1996. In the midterms two years later, Lake lost the gubernatorial race, as did Republicans running for U.S. Senate, state attorney general and secretary of state.

Along the way, the state GOP, in going full fringe, produced one of the most vivid demonstrations anywhere of the singularity of Trump’s appeal. While the former president is leading Vice President Kamala Harris here narrowly in recent polls, Lake, once one of the MAGA movement’s most promising rising stars, has been all but written off, running about 4 percentage points behind Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic nominee.

Acknowledging things for Lake were “getting kind of grim,” Alex Stansberry, the vice president of the College Republicans at ASU, put the problem succinctly: “The only person who’s been able to win on the MAGA platform is Trump.”

More at https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/maga-trump-2024-elec
tions-00185283


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 9:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Florida Abortion Amendment Falls Short Following Aggressive Opposition by Ron DeSantis

The governor waged an unprecedented campaign to block Amendment 4, which needed 60 percent support to pass.

A clear majority of voters backed the effort, but it fell short of the 60 percent threshold it needed to pass.

Addressing supporters just after 9 p.m., organizers with the Yes on 4! coalition struck a triumphant tone, emphasizing the 57 percent support the measure received. The results sent a clear message to legislators that the state’s abortion ban is too extreme, an organizer said.

The amendment, which made its way onto the ballot with the support of 1 million Floridians, would have effectively invalidated the state’s six-week abortion ban. The state’s law, which DeSantis pushed through, effectively outlaws all abortions, because people often don’t yet know they are pregnant at the six-week mark.

https://theintercept.com/2024/11/05/florida-amendment-4-abortion-elect
ion-results
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 9:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm calling the race now.

Trump wins.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

I'm calling it now: Trump gets two in head, one in the heart. Thanks, Biden!



You've been wrong about everything else.

Guess we'll find out now, huh?



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 9:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


8:52 PM: NYT predicts 282 electoral votes for Trump, 252 for Harris.

95% of the Florida vote is in and Trump is still up 13 points.

NYT is saying that both Georgia and North Carolina "Lean R"



Pennsylvania: 38% of the vote counted, Harris leads Trump 50% to 49%

Virginia: 65% of the vote counted, Trump leads Harris 50% to 48%.

Wisconsin: 34% of the vote counted, Tied 49.2% for both.


Electoral votes per the NYT: 178 Trump / 99 Harris.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 9:58 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm calling the race now.

Trump wins.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

I'm calling it now: Trump gets two in head, one in the heart. Thanks, Biden!



You've been wrong about everything else.

Guess we'll find out now, huh?



--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

You won't find out if Biden will pull the trigger three times until January of 2025, close to the inauguration. Until the litigation is finished about who won, Biden doesn't have to make a decision on whether he will be a chicken like President James Buchanan, the guy who decided to let President Lincoln make hard decisions and sort things out because Buchanan was too cowardly and lazy to kill Robert E. Lee and Confederate President Jefferson Davis before the Confederacy was properly launched. Even Lincoln was too magnanimous in victory and where did that end? With Lincoln dead from a bullet in his head while Robert E Lee and Jeff Davis lived on and on. I nearly forgot that with Lincoln dead, the Confederates were able to reestablish a system almost as bad as slavery that would last for another century. This is what happens when you don't kill your enemies.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:23 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

This is what happens when you don't kill your enemies.


You're assuming they don't kill you first.




-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA


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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


10:25PM:

NYT predicts an 89% likelihood of Trump winning with 302 Electoral College votes to 236 for Harris.

North Carolina called for Trump.

95% of Georgia counted; +3 Trump. NYT says Very Likely Trump.

77% of Pennsylvania counted; +3 Trump. NYT says Leans Trump.

68% of Wisconsin counted; +3 Trump. NYT says Leans Trump.

53% of Arizona counted; +0.13 Trump. NYT says Leans Trump.

36% of Michigan counted; +7 Trump. NYT says Leans Trump.

No votes counted in Nevada yet.


According to Google, Trump currently leads the popular vote by over 5.2 Million votes, and that's with 80% of Illinois counted and 86% of New York already counted.




We know California is going to change that number quite a bit when they start counting, but you should not be over 5 million votes underwater when you include the vast majority of Illinois and New York in that total if you're a Democrat.

--------------------------------------------------

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh shit...

I didn't even notice that number includes 25% of California, 60% of Oregon and 58% of Washington already too!

Holy holy holy shit.

Is Trump going to win this thing by 3 Million votes? 5 Million?



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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Nate Cohn, Chief political analyst for the NYT:

There’s still a lot of vote left in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia, but for Harris to win she would need to outperform Biden’s numbers there in 2020, and so far she’s underperforming Biden’s results just about everywhere in the country.

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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


55% of Maricopa county is in and Harris only leads Trump by 2% there.

Not that I think we even need to wait to see Arizona's results before we get the announcement tonight, but I think people are going to find it HIGHLY suspect if we need to wait 2 weeks to find out that Harris was actually up 20% in Maricopa.



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Tuesday, November 5, 2024 11:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


270 has already given Georgia to Trump, although the NYT refuses to.

According to 270 it's currently 247 Trump and 204 Harris.



Also, it looks like that push poll from Iowa that got Ted all excited the other day was bullshit too. According to the NYT, 87% of Iowa's vote is in and Trump is up by 13 points.

Oh... Look at that, Ted. I'm right again, huh? Imagine that.





Maybe you'll learn a lesson and stop watching clickbait from your echo chamber and buying into every constant lie the Legacy Media over at MSNBC tells you every day like I told you to do.


UPDATE: 91% of Iowa counted and Trump is now up +14%.




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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:08 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


New York Times just announced that Republicans won the Senate.



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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


11:15 PM

Trump: 62,061,765 votes total / Harris: 57,815,972 votes total (According to Google Live Updates)


This is with 91% of New York, 88% of Virginia, 84% of Illinois, 65% of Colorado, 60% of both Washington and Oregon and 43% of California counted.


What do you think the chances Harris wins the popular vote are?

If you said anything other than ZERO percent, you might have a below-average IQ.



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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK






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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


New York Times just finally called Georgia for Trump just now.

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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


11:50PM:

NYT gives Trump a 95% chance of winning / 306 Electoral votes to 232 for Harris.

Pennsylvania: 90% counted. Trump +3
Wisconsin: 85% counted. Trump +4
Michigan: 61% counted. Trump +6
Arizona: 53% counted. Trump +0.76
Nevada: 0% counted.

Georgia and North Carolina already went to Trump.


Republicans have made two House pickups and two Senate pickups as well, all 4 of these were cases where a Democrat lost a seat. As announced earlier, Democrats lost the Senate to Republicans already.

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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:58 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Minnesota is a lot closer than it should be. 64% counted and only a 2% lead for Harris 50%/48%.

They called Virginia for Democrats a long time ago, but she's only up 5% with 93% of the vote, which they never expected.

88% of the votes are counted for New Hampshire and at midnight the NYT still hasn't been able to call that one for Kamala, where she only leads by 22,000 votes.




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Wednesday, November 6, 2024 1:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Kamala Harris just announced she doesn't have shit to say to you tonight.

Perhaps tomorrow, but not right now.

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