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Steve Connor, Science Editor
16 September 2005

...Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years... This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at any time in recorded history.
... As more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which heat is absorbed in the Arctic region

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
Call me a skeptic, but I'm still not buying this 'Global warming ' bit as being anything more than the Earth's natural cycle.

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It would take about several hundered years of statistical analysis.

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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It would take about several hundered years of statistical analysis.

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Failing that, maybe five Category 4 hurricanes in a row, the complete disappearance of glaciers, or the disappearance of the Gulf Coast, parts of Florida, and the barrier islands? Some people can't see the forest for the trees (or the facts for the statistics)

Please don't think they give a shit.

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And for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress.

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Originally posted by fivver:
Here's a link to an article that came out today.

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/newsroom/20050920a.html

And a clip from that article:

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And for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress.

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'three Mars summers' equals about 6 Earth years.

But it's still Bush's fault.

Fivver

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Originally posted by SignyM:
Wow. Six years of comparison between Earth and Mars. And you're willing to run with that? I must say, I'm impressed. Do us all a favor: See if you can find a comparison that goes back a few thousand years. Or even a few hundred. (The ice caps of Mars have been studied for over a hundred years by telescope, so the Mars data should be easy to find.) Just so you know where I'm going with this: If you can find a correlation between Earth and Mars polar caps that extends over a hundred years or so, then maybe you've got something there.

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Read the article. It's not a observation of Mars via a telescope, but from the Mars Global Surveyor.

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Originally posted by SignyM:
Auraptor- Did you read the abstract or the paper on solar flares and climate change? They make the connection on the basis that solar flare variations look like climate and weather variation. There is no direct correlation between solar flares and global temperature... not even over the reasonably predictable 11-year solar cycle. "Because" weather changes with the same frequency/intensity that solar flares change, "therefore" the two are directly connected? I dunno... since Levy-walk stats describe a number of unconnected phenomenon, wouldn't the similarity in stats (w/o correlation) simply be a product of describing the same thing? (Global energy dynamics in fluid systems?)

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still the polar caps are receeding. Mars if further away from the Sun than Earth, and still feels the effects of solar flares.

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
That Mars polar caps are shrinking and the cause has nothing to do w/ SUVs or depletion of the rain forest.

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Long lines of cars are heading out of coastal Texan towns as Hurricane Rita gains strength to become a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.

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but you haven't made a good case for solar flares.

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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Long lines of cars are heading out of coastal Texan towns as Hurricane Rita gains strength to become a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.

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"Mother of Storms"

Please don't think they give a shit.

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I'm not the one making the case, just reporting it. NASA seems to be the one making the case, as well as others at Duke University and elsewhere. The more information we have to go on, the less need for wild speculation.

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Under the assumption that the six basins are statistically independent except for the effect of global warming, Stoft has carried out the obvious paired t-test and found that the null-hypothesis of no impact of global warming on the percentage of category 4 & 5 hurricanes can be rejected at the 0.1% level—there is only a 1 in 1000 chance of simultaneously finding the observed six increases in the cat-4&5 percentages.

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SignyM.... you believe what you want. I see what's been reported and am drawing my own conclusions.

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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SignyM.... you believe what you want. I see what's been reported and am drawing my own conclusions.

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No, you are demanding "hundreds" of years of statistics to make the case for global warming, but are willing to accept six (six!!) years of data from Mars. You're the one with the heavy data filter, not me.

Please don't think they give a shit.

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You start w/ the premise that global warming is true. I don't. Therefore, the burden of proof is upon YOU to make your case, not me to disprove it. Since we really don't know with any great certainty as to exactly how the weather is effected here on Earth, not to mention Mars, it'll take some time to see exactly what causes what. As for Mars, we're seeing things which haven't occured since we started studying it

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Our rocky neighbors in the solar system tend to have static enviroments, for the most part

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Logically-speaking, if you really think the last six years on Mars are noteworthy and represent significant support for solar flares as the cause of global warming, then you would have to make the case that the Earth has also undergone similar, exceptional warming in the past six years. If you reject the hypothesis of terrestrial global warming, then you have to reject solar flares as a probable cause. How can I make this clearer? You can't have it both ways. Then we are back to disussing whether global warming is occurring on Earth, and dismissing the Mars data as interesting but irrelevant

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Au contraire. Our rocky neighbors are very dynamic. So are our gaseous neighbors. One only needs to look at the meteor strikes, the volcanic eruptions, the storms, the orbital wobbles, to know that a lot is happening on our neighbors

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It can't be overlooked that a planet which has no SUV's, no factories, etc.. is undergoing a warming process at the same time.

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It can't be overlooked that a planet which has no SUV's, no factories, etc.. is undergoing a warming process at the same time.

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{disagree but) Just try to be a tad more civil about it in the future, if ya can.

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Originally posted by rue:

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It can't be overlooked that a planet which has no SUV's, no factories, etc.. is undergoing a warming process at the same time.

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{disagree but) Just try to be a tad more civil about it in the future, if ya can.

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The fact is, your statement IS bogus and dumb, and me calling it that was the most uncivil thing I said.

So, if you are trying to say I can disagree as long as I don't actually say anything negative about your statements, you've pretty much claimed for yourself the role of chief ideas censor.

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So feel free to continue believing what you want

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
global warming is still a myth.

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Uhuh. What else do you think is a myth AURaptor?

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global climate has cooled and heated up again more than a few times

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Originally posted by rue:
AUraptor

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global climate has cooled and heated up again more than a few times

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We've been over this before as well. The large swings in earth's past climate had a cause which is not in effect today. I know what that cause was, and I challenged you to name it. You did not. So here is that challenge again - what was the cause for Earth's massive climate shifts in the past? (Hint - it has to do with orbit.)


PS I am an atmospheric chemist. And you?



Please don't think they give a shit.

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