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Originally posted by HKCavalier:
Okay. Say you live in an apartment house and right across the way lives a woman who's boyfriend beats her. You've seen the police over there more than once but you can tell that the woman refuses to press charges, so the boyfriend is never arrested. When the cops leave, he beats her all the more for calling the cops.

So you decide to...

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Originally posted by Geezer:

Quote:

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Originally posted by HKCavalier:
Okay. Say you live in an apartment house and right across the way lives a woman who's boyfriend beats her. You've seen the police over there more than once but you can tell that the woman refuses to press charges, so the boyfriend is never arrested. When the cops leave, he beats her all the more for calling the cops.

So you decide to...

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...do nothing. One night he gets more violent than usual and beats her to death. In his drunken panic he sets a fire in the apartment to cover his crime, and the building burns down, killing the elderly couple upstairs and leaving 23 people homeless and destitute.

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Originally posted by Geezer:
Predictive modeling might work if you go in without preconceptions or bias. But it's pretty easy to use it to prove whatever you want, just like you can find anecdotal evidence for most anything if you look hard enough.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Originally posted by SignyM:
If Allawi saw widespread support, he'd have the US troops go in with guns blazing. In one swoop he'd have gotten rid of a meddlesome upstart and been able to bask in acclaim. But obviously he sees a serious enough downside to risk negotiating.

al Sadr, on the other hand, has nothing to gain by negotiating. If he leaves the mosque he's given up his single tactical and political advantage and lost all credibility. Unfortunately for all concerned he seems to have painted himself into a corner where his only way out is battle.

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