REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Five things we learned from Tuesday's debate

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Saturday, October 20, 2012 06:08
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Thursday, October 18, 2012 4:26 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:
Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
You really should look at where you get your numbers.
>


The focus groups came from CNN, Fox, and MSNBC. They were virtually identical responses and favored Romney dramatically.



Really? Must be a bizarro-world version of CNN. This is what shows up on the CNN website here on Earth:

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/pollingcenter/polls/3274




I note for the record that Romney is polling in the 45-47% range, yet only 39% thought he won the debate. This does not make for a winning night.

MSNBC uses the information from Reuters on their website. Here's what they have to say:

Quote:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Voters say that President Barack Obama performed better than Republican rival Mitt Romney by a substantial margin in their second debate, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

Forty-eight percent of registered voters gave the victory to Obama, while 33 percent say Romney prevailed in the Tuesday debate, the online poll found.

The poll reflects the broad consensus of debate observers who said Obama's forceful approach gave him the upper hand over Romney, who was widely seen as the victor in their first matchup on October 3.

"Clearly the debate was a bit of a turnaround for Obama. He put in a much stronger performance than he did in the first debate and it's showing in the numbers," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.
The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the survey of 655 online voters, conducted shortly after the debate, has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Alistair Bell and Sandra maler)



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49452257/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/
voters-say-obama-beat-romney-second-debate-reutersipsos-poll/#.UIC2mj_E5Xc


Reuters version is at

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/us-usa-campaign-poll-ipsos-i
dUSBRE89G1JV20121017




Care to rethink any of those above claims? Any cites from those sources to support your claims?

Quote:


The overall who won came from Gallop and Reuters and was reported on all Major Networks. The individual question breakdown was courtesy of NBC.



I can't find any breakdown of who won the debate on the Gallup website. Reuters says Obama won handily, 48% to 33%, a 15-point gap.




"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Thursday, October 18, 2012 5:04 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:


The President called it an act of terror the next day, the transcripts prove that. Rmoney was wrong, got correct and his ass handed to him. Deal with it.



Dealing.


Card #1





Card #2





Card #3
(Watch Harry Reid raise his hand two times in agreement with Joe naming Iran)....takes a minute to load....wait...
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/biden-mistakenly-refers-troops-se
rving-iran-17512101




Card #4
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-po
ll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791
/
The 18 pt. lead Obama had with women is gone??



Card #5
GALLUP ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Oct 11-17, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

REGISTERED VOTERS Romney 48% Obama 47% +1

LIKELY VOTERS Romney 52% Obama 45% +1



Hmmmm...Romney now up 7 points with likely voters.


Perhaps Bain and Big Bird, Binders, Beyonce, and Bush blaming 'aint cuttin' it. Perhaps Axelrod and Plough have taken Obama down a losing path, a road to ruin. Who knows.

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Thursday, October 18, 2012 6:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


http://www.pollheadlines.com/

Polls for Th Oct 18

Romney 49% - Obama 47% - Rasmussen

Obama 46% - Romney 46% - IBD/TIPP

Obama 48% - Romney 48% - Public Policy Polling

Romney 52% - Obama 45% - Gallup

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Thursday, October 18, 2012 11:33 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!





" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Friday, October 19, 2012 1:36 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


It's really funny, because Rappy claims he hates it when people get caught up in the actual words others used, what they actually SAID. And here he is saying that Obama never said it was a terrorist act, but instead referred to "terrorist ACTS ( plural )".

And then he posts a cartoon full of things that were not said, and specifically excluding what WAS said.

By the way, you might not remember, but there were "( plural )" terrorist ACTS on September 11. It's probably slipped down your memory-hole (or whatever other dark place you keep your head), but our embassy in Cairo was the scene of some violent unrest that day, too.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Friday, October 19, 2012 6:41 AM

SHINYGOODGUY


Hey Kwix,

Absolutely Great Poster, I'm still laughing................lol.

They should make one with his nose getting bigger (a la Pinocchio) with the caption reading "Binders full of women"

It sounded made up the moment he said it.

SGG

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Friday, October 19, 2012 8:06 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


The trouble with polls is they change daily, and this race is so close that it bounces from one to the other, also almost daily. Romney has certainly closed the gap, and is ahead in some polls.

As of today:
Quote:

PPP noted that Obama led Romney on each night following Tuesday's town hall debate. The PollTracker Average also shows Obama moving ahead to claim a 1-point lead.
I put weight on Five Thirty Eight, which has been pretty damned accurate for a long time:
Quote:

whether Obama leads or Romney is gaining traction will depend on which polling entity is supplying your numbers.

Presidential polls are only one (very stark) example of our currently divided media, with outlets presenting a narrative based on their party of preference. Earlier on in the race, when polls showed a clear Obama lead, many conservative outlets outright rejected the polls, saying that “skewed polling” by a “liberal media” that was “in the tank for Obama” had sullied the data.

As of today (October 19), New York Times polling blog FiveThirtyEight is forecasting a still solid lead for President Obama over Mitt Romney, projecting that the incumbent candidate will earn 291.6 electoral votes to Romney’s predicted 246.4. Silver pegs Obama at a 70.4 percent chance of winning over Romney’s projected chance of 29.6 percent, in line with projections from other major polling outlets predicting an Obama win in November.Lots more at http://www.inquisitr.com/368997/presidential-polls-show-gallup-against
-the-world-nate-silver-observes-romney-win-unlikely/
]
As we all know, at this point "nationwide" means next to nothing, it's the sswing states that will decide the election. With regard to those,
Quote:

Within swing states, the two new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show Obama leading by comfortable margins -- 8 percentage points in Iowa (51 to 43 percent) and 6 points in Wisconsin (51 to 45 percent). Both states are critical for Obama given the close contest nationwide and narrow Romney leads in states like Florida and North Carolina.

Eight other new polls released on Thursday from seven battleground states found more of a mix of results. Except for a Rasmussen Reports automated survey in North Carolina and a Republican-sponsored poll in Pennsylvania (by a pollster with results that have consistently skewed in Romney's favor), the new surveys all gave Obama nominal leads.

In addition, the tracking model continues to show Obama with narrower advantages in New Hampshire and Colorado, but tied or slightly behind in Virginia, Florida and North Carolina.

The new polls are just beginning to capture sentiment measured after the second debate. New surveys released over the weekend should begin to clarify whether any new trends will emerge. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/19/2012-polls-barack-obama-swing
-states_n_1985645.html
]
Now that's the HuffPost, so their material needs to be viewed as at least somewhat biased.

From another source, concerning swing states:
Quote:

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen)

Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Mellman)

New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Grove Insight)

Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen) http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/19/latest_swing_state_polls.
html


These races always tighten up toward the end, don't they? Seems to me that's what I've heard, and Romney dertainly has tightened it up!


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Friday, October 19, 2012 5:24 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


538.com's blog calls those swing states thusly:

Florida: Projected vote share 52.7 Obama / 44.9 Romney

Iowa: Projected vote share 50.4 / 48.6

Nevada: Projected vote share 50.6 / 48.2

New Hampshire: Projected vote share 50.4 / 48.9

North Carolina: Projected vote share 47.9 / 51.4

Virginia: Projected vote share 49.4 / 49.8

Also,

Ohio: Projected vote share 50.3 / 48.3

Pennsylvania: Projected vote share 51.6 / 47.3



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Saturday, October 20, 2012 1:45 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:

The overall who won came from Gallop and Reuters and was reported on all Major Networks.




You mean this one?

Quote:

Obama Judged Winner of Second Debate
Fifty-one percent say Obama did better job, 38% say Romney



http://www.gallup.com/poll/158237/obama-judged-winner-second-debate.as
px


That's the only mention I can find by Gallup of who won the second presidential debate.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Saturday, October 20, 2012 6:08 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Yup, as it says, and that as of yesterday:
Quote:

Three-fourths of Americans (76%) in an Oct. 17-18 Gallup poll say they watched the debate, higher than the 66% who told Gallup in an Oct. 4-5 poll that they watched the first presidential debate on Oct. 3.

The two-day field period after the night of the debate means Americans' judgments about who won not only reflect their personal reaction but may also be influenced by news coverage and media commentary in the days following the debate. However, most of the instant reaction polls conducted in the first few hours after the second debate also found debate watchers naming Obama the winner.


It's still all just bullshit, given how close things have been for so long and how it swings back and forth, back and forth. And then again, that's just Gallup...


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