REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Unemployment rate hits 5-month high

POSTED BY: FELLOWTRAVELER
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 9, 2006 11:39
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Friday, August 4, 2006 4:17 AM

FELLOWTRAVELER


WASHINGTON - Hiring slowed in July as employers added just 113,000 new jobs, propelling the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 4.8 percent and providing fresh evidence that companies are growing cautious amid high energy prices. Wages grew solidly.

The latest snapshot Friday from the Labor Department added to the evidence from a variety of economic barometers that the economy is slowing and inflation is rising. Those conflicting forces present the Federal Reserve with a dilemma over interest rates when policymakers meet next week.

The tally of new jobs last month was weaker than the 124,000 added in June and was the lowest total since May, when payrolls grew by 100,000.

"Businesses are guarded as they see a downshifting of economic growth, rising energy prices and higher interest rates," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

The civilian unemployment rate jumped from 4.6 percent in June to 4.8 percent in July, matching the jobless rate in February. The last time the unemployment rate was higher was in December, at 4.9 percent.

Economists had forecast a gain of about 145,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.6 percent.

Manufacturers and information companies — including publishers and telecommunication firms — shed jobs in July, while employment in retailing and in the government was flat, combining to restrain overall hiring.

The report comes as
President Bush is getting low marks from the public for his economic stewardship.

Workers' average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose to $16.76 in July, 0.4 percent higher than in June. Economists anticipated a 0.3 percent rise. Wage growth is welcomed by workers. But a rapid and sustained pickup in wages, if not blunted by other economic forces, can touch off inflation fears.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last month that he was concerned about rising prices, but hoped a slowing economy eventually would ease inflationary pressures.

The Fed is meeting on Tuesday, and some economists believe the central bank will leave interest rates alone, taking its first break after tightening credit for more than two years.

Friday's weaker job growth would justify such a breather, offering more evidence of slowing economic activity.

"I think the odds are in favor of it," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services.

Others Fed-watchers who are worried about inflation think policymakers have another interest-rate jump in store.

The Fed steadily has raised rates 17 times since June 2004, each in increments of one-quarter of a percentage point, to prevent inflation from taking off.

The hiring slowdown comes as companies cope with soaring energy prices and higher interest rates. Oil prices reached a new closing high of $77.03 a barrel in the middle of July, though they have moderated slightly since then.

In these conditions, businesses and consumers — engines of economic activity — have turned cautious. That, in turn, has slowed the economy.

Growth in the second half of this year is expected to stay subdued, at pace of about 2.5 percent to 3 percent, according to projections from some economists.

The economy slowed to a pace of 2.5 percent in the April-to-June quarter, compared with the 5.6 percent growth rate in the first three months of the year.

In July, manufacturers cut 15,000 jobs, reversing the gain of 22,000 the month before. Employment was flat in retailing, after the sector shed just over 4,000 jobs in June. Government employment also held in check in July, following a gain of 15,000 jobs the month earlier. Employment in the information industry, including publishing and telecommunications, dropped by 9,000.

The report showed that 17.3 weeks was the average time that the 7.2 million unemployed spent searching for work in July; the comparison for June was 16.2 weeks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060804/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_14

Can't believe this isn't up yet.

So much for those rose colored glasses...


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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:34 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by FellowTraveler:

Can't believe this isn't up yet.

So much for those rose colored glasses...




Interesting read FellowTraveler, but what are you trying to point out with this article?

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:47 AM

CHRISISALL


That this 'booming' economy has less bang for the buck than some believe...

Explosive Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:09 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by chrisisall:
That this 'booming' economy has less bang for the buck than some believe...



Oh I see, instead of an economic discussion this is simply another bash the present administration and it's supporters thread. Too bad, this could have been a stimulating topic.

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:16 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:

instead of an economic discussion this is simply another bash the present administration and it's supporters thread.


Again???!
It's been done, BDN, please give it a rest, okay?
Look, I'm no fan, but it gets old, aiight?

Let's just explore the effects or causes or whatever. We can bash the admin. on plenty of other threads.

Tired Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:28 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by chrisisall:

Again???!
It's been done, BDN, please give it a rest, okay?
Look, I'm no fan, but it gets old, aiight?

Let's just explore the effects or causes or whatever. We can bash the admin. on plenty of other threads.




That is what I was attempting to do by asking FellowTraveler the point behind his/her post. My apologies if I was mistaken regarding your response. Perhaps, when you mentioned 'some people', you were simply refering to an aquaintance of yours in the energy sector who thinks the economy is booming.

What is your opinion on the causes or effects or whatever?

De-lurking to clear stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:37 AM

CHRISISALL


Actually, I was referring to peeps around here that use the 'booming economy' point to underscore what a good job a certain President is doing.
The global economy (like global warming) is a fact of life, changing things all around us, regardless of who happens to be in office at the moment.
Other factors like war and such have a profound short-term effect, yes, but the leveling of the field will be felt by almost everyone in the coming decades, momentary highs and lows aside.

Now stop bashing Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:55 AM

THERIGHTSTUFF1


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Actually, I was referring to peeps around here that use the 'booming economy' point to underscore what a good job a certain President is doing.
The global economy (like global warming) is a ]

You think your being clever but he is the reason we all have more money now! President Bush is saving us all financially and giving us the chance to save our souls. You want to laugh at him but I laugh at you! You want to be one with the Devil just keep on this path you idiot!
You CHOOSETO BE ONE!!!
PS.,its warming to get ready for where your headed l.o.l.

TheRightStuff1

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Friday, August 4, 2006 9:01 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by TheRightStuff1:

You CHOOSETO BE ONE!!!



Are you calling me a 'Cheeto' and just spelling it badly?

Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 9:34 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh - my - God.
'nuff said about TRS' post!

Economics YUM! One of my favorite topics! (Gets out the napkin and fork.)

For those of you too young to remember, stagflation is combination of the word stagnation (used to describe slowed economic growth and rising unemployment) and inflation (used to describe a general rise in prices). In theory, a stagnant economy and inflation are not supposed to exist together because an underemployed population "should" not be creating upward price pressure.

But in reality, stagflation was a HUGE problem under Nixon in the 70's (altho in my view Nixon was not the cause of the problem). This site details several possible explanations for stagflation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

The existance of stagflation supposedly produces a conundrum for the Feds because solving one problem (tightening the money supply) worsens the other (recession).

I personally think there are several possible reasons for stagflation. The original (Keynesian) model assumed something of a closed economy. But exogenous demand- for oil as an example- can drive up prices in any national economy even as that economy is spiraling downwards.

It's also possible IMHO to create stagflation in a closed economy simply by poor money distribution. This is usually seen when deficit spending is pumped into a very narrow segment of the economy (a "war economy" for example) which significantly increases the money supply without increasing production of consumer goods. IMHO the stagflation of the '70's was caused by Vietnam War spending and exacerbated by Nixon (who resorted to wage/ price controls in a misguided attempt to solve the problem).

So while the Feds may wring their hands and look helpless about the problem, the solution is readily at hand... just fatally unpopular with the current administration and Congress. The solution is to end deficit spending and redirect money back into the larger economy. There are a lot of ways to do this, and one of the BEST ways is to raise the minimum wage (which hasn't been raised over 10 years).

Many conservative will say that raising the minimum wage depresses the economy, but the facts show oppositely: states (and nations) with higher minimum wages have more robust economies. Just to make sure that this isn't a self-slected population, time-series studies also show that economies improve AFTER an increase in the minimum wage... not before.

I'll provide the links again (I have them in another thread, but I'll have to hunt them down).

So.... I hope I didn't kill this thread. This is a passion of mine and I'd like some involved discussion.

"Divergers welcome!"

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 9:43 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Just to make sure that this isn't a self-slected population, time-series studies also show that economies improve AFTER an increase in the minimum wage... not before.


So.... I hope I didn't kill this thread.

If it dies, it'll be from TRSitius, not you Signy.

Does a raise in minium wage stimulate spending into the economy? It seems like it would have the effect of slowing job growth a little...

Just askin' Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 9:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Raising minimum wage slow job growth??? Not at all....

The minimum wage is fertilizer for the economy because it sets the stage for higher demand, which means higher production and job expansion. (With caveats about where those jobs are created.) It's a positive feedback loop.

Oppositely, less demand means layoffs, which means less demand.... w/o attention, this can lead to a runaway crash (a la the Great Depression). Henry Ford saw this dynamic very clearly. Even as others were shuttering their businesses, he kept his going until he ran out of money, because he saw that the unemployed don't buy. It was the right idea, but his company wasn't anywhere near big enough to solve the problem.

"Monetary" policy- ie setting interest rates... is a very broad-brush solution for a specific problem. Government FISCAL policy (reduce deficit spending) combined with WAGE policy (increase minimum wage) is a much more targeted approach to stagflation. But fiscal and wage policy are not in the Fed's purview... that rests with the President and Congress. Given that they seem to be deliberately trying to suck the middle class dry, I don't see any help from that direciton.

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 10:18 AM

FELLOWTRAVELER


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
Quote:


Originally posted by chrisisall:

Again???!
It's been done, BDN, please give it a rest, okay?
Look, I'm no fan, but it gets old, aiight?

Let's just explore the effects or causes or whatever. We can bash the admin. on plenty of other threads.




That is what I was attempting to do by asking FellowTraveler the point behind his/her post. My apologies if I was mistaken regarding your response. Perhaps, when you mentioned 'some people', you were simply refering to an aquaintance of yours in the energy sector who thinks the economy is booming.

What is your opinion on the causes or effects or whatever?

De-lurking to clear stuff up.



Not much of point. Capital is doing well, Labor is doing poorly, which is the intended consequence of supply side economics.

Not making a moral judgement. I do work, but also have investments (God bless that Exxon stock). So, like most other middle class Americans (I suspect), I'm doing well and getting screwed...

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Friday, August 4, 2006 10:20 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
There are a lot of ways to do this, and one of the BEST ways is to raise the minimum wage (which hasn't been raised over 10 years).



Yep. Too bad the Dems voted it down in the Senate yesterday. Guess they'd rather penalize the 26,000 sub-$5 million estates per year that end up paying about $6 billion in estate tax, rather than see that two million+ minimum wage workers get increased pay.

Did you realize that the total Estate tax collected in 2004 (last year for which IRS figures are available) was just $21.5 billion? Now figure the tax benefits (not to mention the social benefits) of having two million people earning an extra $2.10 and hour ($80.40 a week, $4,000.00 a year). Seems like a fair tradeoff to me.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 4, 2006 10:56 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Raising minimum wage slow job growth??? Not at all....


Like Willow might say raising her hand:
Not an economist!

Thanks for helping me (and the rest of the econonomics-challenged) understand a little better.

Always learning, not always retaining Chrisisall

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Friday, August 4, 2006 11:35 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
Oh I see, instead of an economic discussion this is simply another bash the present administration and it's supporters thread.



Quote:


Originally posted by chrisisall:
Actually, I was referring to peeps around here that use the 'booming economy' point to underscore what a good job a certain President is doing.



Must be why you are considered 'unofficial moderator'.

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 11:44 AM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Yep. Too bad the Dems voted it down in the Senate yesterday. Guess they'd rather penalize the 26,000 sub-$5 million estates per year that end up paying about $6 billion in estate tax, rather than see that two million+ minimum wage workers get increased pay.

Did you realize that the total Estate tax collected in 2004 (last year for which IRS figures are available) was just $21.5 billion? Now figure the tax benefits (not to mention the social benefits) of having two million people earning an extra $2.10 and hour ($80.40 a week, $4,000.00 a year). Seems like a fair tradeoff to me.


Why couple the two?

Why not have an up and down vote on a minimum wage increase?

Why not have an up and down vote on repealing the estate tax?

We both know the answer to that question. The Republicans want to have something they can use against the Democrats going into the midterms. And they figured they might, just might, have a shot at that estate-tax-repealing-wet-dream that has been plaguing their nights for the longest time.

Is there any other reason to couple the two? It's not like the people who died are now going to have to pay their workers more because the minimum wage went up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 12:21 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
"Divergers welcome!"

LOL. Thank you Sig.

Unfortunately, I am so ignorant about this topic I'm just here to lurk and learn.

(Squatting with a bucket of popcorn.)

Can't Take My Gorram Sky

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Friday, August 4, 2006 12:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Geezer, cutting taxes and raising minimum wages are not the equivalent items and they really don't belong together. Cutting taxes removes several billions of dollars from the budget, but raising the minimum wage doesn't replace that revenue stream and it doesn't directly transfer benefit to minimum-wage workers.

As an aside, in addition to raising the minimum wage (which would increase purchasing power by about 4-6 billion over three years) the government could effectively raise ALL wages by providing single-payer health care. That would not only provide a significant relief to businesses, which are being bled dry by their business buddy- the health insurance sector- it would effectively raise the wages of people who currently do not have insurance. It would also cut total medical care costs by about 30% by eliminating administrative costs (borne by hospitals, medical offices, testing labs etc as they navigate their way thru complex insurance paperwork) and an additional 10% by eliminating insurance company profits.

BTW_ Geezer- How DO you get your logic to be so.... twisty??? You must work at it AWFULLY hard!!!

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 12:44 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by SignyM:

So while the Feds may wring their hands and look helpless about the problem, the solution is readily at hand... just fatally unpopular with the current administration and Congress. The solution is to end deficit spending and redirect money back into the larger economy. There are a lot of ways to do this, and one of the BEST ways is to raise the minimum wage (which hasn't been raised over 10 years).




I wouldn't go so far as to say fatally unpopular.

http://www.republicanmainstreet.org/news072806.htm

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 1:27 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


I don't see why unemployment is hitting a high

There are jobs for anyone who wants one.


Get a job in a growth industry,


just follow the link

http://www.goarmy.com/flindex.jsp

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Friday, August 4, 2006 1:32 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I wouldn't go so far as to say fatally unpopular./ www.republicanmainstreet.org/news072806.htm

Look, I've been griping about the Dems not being statesman-like enough to vote honestly, and I'm not about to point to the handful who voted against Iraq as some sort of Democratic renaissance of purpose.

So if you point to a small minority of Republicans scattered through several levels of government who timidly quibble with the Party and supposedly put up a poisoned minimum-wage bill, do you really expect me to think that is significant????

I THINK I'm a realist. You... you must be a practical joker?



---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 3:12 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by SignyM:

So if you point to a small minority of Republicans scattered through several levels of government who timidly quibble with the Party and supposedly put up a poisoned minimum-wage bill, do you really expect me to think that is significant????

I THINK I'm a realist. You... you must be a practical joker?



I think if you were a realist you would realize that the bill had to have a little something for everyone. So what if estate taxes were cut, the minimum wage would go up. There were also provisions for college tuition (the future)and abandoned mine reclamation (the environment). Are rich people getting a little richer really worth not raising the minimum wage?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/04/news/economy/minimum_wage/index.htm

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 3:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I think if you were a realist you would realize that the bill had to have a little something for everyone.
Not at all. Since Republicans control Congress and the Presidency the GOP passes what it wants to pass and ignores what it wants to ignore. The only "something for everybody" that happens is when pork gets written into the Transportation Bill (or some such) in which case the GOP takes care of all of its Party members (except the mutants like Olympia Snowe). Now tell me I'm not being a realist!

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 4:01 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
Quote:


Originally posted by SignyM:

So if you point to a small minority of Republicans scattered through several levels of government who timidly quibble with the Party and supposedly put up a poisoned minimum-wage bill, do you really expect me to think that is significant????

I THINK I'm a realist. You... you must be a practical joker?



I think if you were a realist you would realize that the bill had to have a little something for everyone. So what if estate taxes were cut, the minimum wage would go up. There were also provisions for college tuition (the future)and abandoned mine reclamation (the environment). Are rich people getting a little richer really worth not raising the minimum wage?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/04/news/economy/minimum_wage/index.htm

De-lurking to stir stuff up.




I would say that the problem lies with the system if you can't do the good things everyone agrees upon without letting through something you find objectionable...



" Fighting them at their own game
Murder for freedom the stab in the back
Women and children and cowards attack

Run to the hills run for your lives "

http://www.darklyrics.com/lyrics/ironmaiden/liveafterdeath.html#12


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Friday, August 4, 2006 4:02 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by SignyM:
Not at all. Since Republicans control Congress and the Presidency the GOP passes what it wants to pass and ignores what it wants to ignore. ...Now tell me I'm not being a realist!



Fair enough.
I suppose if the minimum wage was increased that might affect the Democrats voting base thereby solidifying the GOP's control. Crafty Democrats.

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 4:28 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
Fair enough.
I suppose if the minimum wage was increased that might affect the Democrats voting base thereby solidifying the GOP's control. Crafty Democrats.


So why didn't the Republicans pass a minimum wage increase all by itself? That way they could take credit for doing it. After all they're in control. No sane Democrat would vote against it.

The fact that they had to load it up with other things they knew the Democrats wouldn't vote on tells you exactly how seriously they take raising the minimum wage.

When the party that controls everything has to resort to politicial gamesmanship it tells you how confident they are in the resonance of their platform with the general public. In other words, not very confident.

Remember the last time the Republicans were gearing up for a vote on repealing the estate tax? What stopped them? Hurricane Katrina. Even they realized that it would've been in bad taste to give a small number of super-rich families a tax break while poor people were dying on television.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 4:49 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
So why didn't the Republicans pass a minimum wage increase all by itself? That way they could take credit for doing it. After all they're in control. No sane Democrat would vote against it.

The fact that they had to load it up with other things they knew the Democrats wouldn't vote on tells you exactly how seriously they take raising the minimum wage.



I guess the Republicans were also trying to appease a portion of their voting base. Crafty Republicans.




De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:14 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Why couple the two?

Why not have an up and down vote on a minimum wage increase?

Why not have an up and down vote on repealing the estate tax?

We both know the answer to that question. The Republicans want to have something they can use against the Democrats going into the midterms. And they figured they might, just might, have a shot at that estate-tax-repealing-wet-dream that has been plaguing their nights for the longest time.



Or why not couple the two? The Democrats get the minimum wage increase they've been talking about for the past several years, and the Republicans get the reduction in the estate tax that they've been pushing for the past few years. Looks like a win-win to me. The only real losers are the acountants who get rich figuring how to help their clients avoid estate taxes. I doubt the 50,000 or so families affected each year by estate taxes can provide more political clout that the two million plus folks who'd profit from the increase in the minimum wage. Why not let everyone make a few points?

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:30 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Geezer, cutting taxes and raising minimum wages are not the equivalent items and they really don't belong together. Cutting taxes removes several billions of dollars from the budget, but raising the minimum wage doesn't replace that revenue stream and it doesn't directly transfer benefit to minimum-wage workers.



I don't see the problem with bundling them as a tit-for-tat deal benefiting both sides, as mentioned above. I'm not sure what you mean stating "...raising the minimum wage doesn't replace that revenue stream and it doesn't directly transfer benefit to minimum-wage workers." For a full-time worker increasing the minimum wage by $2.10 translates to about $4,000.00 a year in additional income, which seems like a benefit. This increased income also translates into additional income tax, additional sales tax to support schools and municipalaties, additional buying power which increases profits for merchants and wages for their employees, etc.

Quote:

As an aside, in addition to raising the minimum wage (which would increase purchasing power by about 4-6 billion over three years) the government could effectively raise ALL wages by providing single-payer health care.


True. Bt that's going to be a massively complex piece of legislation to get going, and will take quite a while, if it ever happens. The minimum wage increase for estate tax reduction is what's on the table right now, and I can't see any reason why it couldn't have been passed.

Quote:

BTW_ Geezer- How DO you get your logic to be so.... twisty??? You must work at it AWFULLY hard!!!


I don't see it as twisty. Minimum wage for estate tax seems a resonable swap to me. If politics is the art of compromise, this seems a good one.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:30 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Quote:

I doubt the 50,000 or so families affected each year by estate taxes can provide more political clout that the two million plus folks who'd profit from the increase in the minimum wage.
$ 1 = 1 vote

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Friday, August 4, 2006 5:42 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
I guess the Republicans were also trying to appease a portion of their voting base. Crafty Republicans.


That's the thing, though. Why be crafty? They control Congress and the White House.
Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Or why not couple the two? The Democrats get the minimum wage increase they've been talking about for the past several years, and the Republicans get the reduction in the estate tax that they've been pushing for the past few years. Looks like a win-win to me. The only real losers are the acountants who get rich figuring how to help their clients avoid estate taxes. I doubt the 50,000 or so families affected each year by estate taxes can provide more political clout that the two million plus folks who'd profit from the increase in the minimum wage. Why not let everyone make a few points?


Actually the real losers are the next generation who have to shoulder the debt incurred by cutting more taxes while increasing spending. And more and more burden gets shifted onto the shrinking middle class. As far as the political clout of the families affected, how much money do you think they've donated to politicians versus those who would benefit from a minimum wage increase? From what we've seen with the Republican leadership (ah, the good old K Street project) it's all about the pay-to-play. "Some people call you the elites; I call you my base."

At least the Republicans finally gave up on the family farm angle for repealing the estate tax. Seems they couldn't really find any that would be affected.

* edited to add: Although I guess I can see a relationship between the two proposals. Democrats clearly hate the idea of giving the super-rich-dead a tax break. Republicans clearly hate the idea of giving those who earn minimum wage an increase in pay.

* edited one more time to add: Ooh. I like that. Here's the slogan the Republicans should use, "You better let us give tax breaks to the dead or we won't give pay raises to the living."

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:00 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


I just did a back of the envelope calculation on Slick's stoopit flip little comment about relative wealth and influence.

The relaively few wealthy families will gain 10,000% more excess money from the tax break than the minimum wage families will gain from the raise.

Yeah, that sounds like a fair trade to me. And it'll sure go along way to even-out political influence.

Yes, once again Slick has shown his greasy side.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:03 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
I just did a back of the envelope calculation on Slicks' stoopit flip little comment about relative wealth and influence.

The relaively few wealthy families will gain 10,000% more excess money from the tax break than the minimum wage families will gain from the raise.

Yeah, that sounds like a fair trade to me.


Yikes. And the wealthy families will be doing nothing to get that excess money while those who earn minimum wage will actually be working for that pay.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:15 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


http://lastleftb4hooterville.blogspot.com/2006/06/income-distribution-
in-us.html


The US population is represented along the length of the football field, arranged in order of income.

-- Median US family income (at the 50 yard line) is $40,000 a stack of $100 bills 1.6inches high
-- The family on the 95 yard line earns about $100,000 per year, a stack of $100 bills about 4 inches high
-- At the 99 yard line the income is about $300,000, a stack of $100 bills about a foot high
-- The curve reaches $1 million, a 40 inch high stack of $100 bills, one foot from the goal line
-- At the goal-line the stack is ~30 miles high on this scale!

-------------------------------------------------

And the people who annually make $5M US or more? I can see they really NEEEED that tax break SOOOOooo badly. They're doing just awful compared to everyone else.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:17 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Actually the real losers are the next generation who have to shoulder the debt incurred by cutting more taxes while increasing spending. And more and more burden gets shifted onto the shrinking middle class. As far as the political clout of the families affected, how much money do you think they've donated to politicians versus those who would benefit from a minimum wage increase?



I gotta look at the particulars in the legislation, but based on the news stuff I've seen, this is a pretty small reduction in overall estate taxes. Probably a few billion a year. I suspect the additional tax revenue from the increased wages and spending would pretty much offset it, plus improving life for the folks who are having their income increased by 40%. Increasing spending is a problem, but it doesn't really have anything to do with this particular piece of legislation(I think. Need to go to Thomas and see the language in the bill).

As to political contributions and clout, I think there are plenty of rich liberals as well as conservitives. I suspect that they balance out. If I were suspicious, I'd wonder if the Dems didn't fear that a Republican-sponsored increase in the Minimum wage would swing a few votes to the Right.

But I do really think that it would have been a worthwhile swap for both sides, and the people in general. Like I said, I need to look over the legislation more and run the numbers, but based on media reports, it seems fair.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:36 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Yikes. And the wealthy families will be doing nothing to get that excess money while those who earn minimum wage will actually be working for that pay.



Why do I get the feeling that this is all about punishing rich people for being rich? Why do I think that we passed up an opportunity to make a compromise that would let millions of people improve their lives, afford health insurance, feed their kids good food, buy homes, etc., just because some folks can't stand the idea of rich people's families inheriting money?

The tax money estates pay isn't going to help those folks working for minimum wage. It'll go to build a porkbarrel project for some congressperson of either party. Increasing the minimum wage goes right into the wage-earners pocket. No middleman. No trickle-down. 100 cents on the dollar. Money they'll spend to boost the economy.



"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Friday, August 4, 2006 6:39 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Slick,

It's not about punishing the rich. It's about protecting the next generations from Bush's economic follies.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 7:29 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Why do I get the feeling that this is all about punishing rich people for being rich? Why do I think that we passed up an opportunity to make a compromise that would let millions of people improve their lives, afford health insurance, feed their kids good food, buy homes, etc., just because some folks can't stand the idea of rich people's families inheriting money?

The tax money estates pay isn't going to help those folks working for minimum wage. It'll go to build a porkbarrel project for some congressperson of either party. Increasing the minimum wage goes right into the wage-earners pocket. No middleman. No trickle-down. 100 cents on the dollar. Money they'll spend to boost the economy.


You'll get no argument from me that passing the minimum wage increase would be a good thing. So pass it by itself. That Republicans will not put the minimum wage increase to an up and down vote tells you something about their priorities. It's almost as if the thought of paying workers more per hour is abhorrent to them.

I'll turn it around a bit. Why do we have to reward the rich. Why make things easier on them?

I thought the American dream was you work hard, play by the rules and get ahead. Instead we continue to stack the deck so that the best decision you can make to ensure a successful future is to choose to be born rich.


*eta: Work hard. Take care of your family's needs. Make scads of money. Become filthy rich. All okay things in my book. An inherited aristocracy, however, is not.

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Friday, August 4, 2006 8:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Why do I think that we passed up an opportunity to make a compromise that would let millions of people improve their lives, afford health insurance, feed their kids good food, buy homes, etc.,
OMG Geezer, do you REALLY THINK $7.20 an hour is going to allow anyone to afford health insurance, buy a home, and improve their lives? Why not just say "Let them eat cake"?? Assuming a full time job, $7.20/ hr grosses $17,000/ year before taxes. Try supporting a family on THAT for a while. 'Fraid you'll have to dump the boat, motorcycles, Honda racing cars and whiskey, tho.
Quote:

The tax money estates pay isn't going to help those folks working for minimum wage.
Why not? You're always blathering about how "the system works". Have you suddenly lost your faith? That measly $6 billion loss could fund something like... oh, I dunno- Head Start which right now is funded at about $7 billion. Or WIC which is funded at about $6 billion. Amazing what a few crumbs can do, eh Geezer?

And now, moving past your motivations- which are measly at best- let's examine your math.
Quote:

I don't see the problem with bundling them as a tit-for-tat deal benefiting both sides, as mentioned above. I'm not sure what you mean stating "...raising the minimum wage doesn't replace that revenue stream and it doesn't directly transfer benefit to minimum-wage workers.
Setting aide that the two deals are non-equivalent, they aren't even close in sheer raw dollars. The inheritance tax means a loss of revenue and s shift of moneys to the tune of about $6 billion a year, every year. The increase in minimum wage would have a MAXIMUM impact of about $2.7 billion. If I were bargaining, you'd have to offer me something like two or three times what "your" side is getting before I'd even consider it, because tax money going to the wealthy has a double whammy on both Federal income and aggregate demand.

But, I understand Geezer that crumbs are all the poor and middle class should expect, and be damn grateful for them. Can you say "miserable little turd of a human being"? Sure you can!


---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 3:19 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
You'll get no argument from me that passing the minimum wage increase would be a good thing. So pass it by itself. That Republicans will not put the minimum wage increase to an up and down vote tells you something about their priorities. It's almost as if the thought of paying workers more per hour is abhorrent to them.



I suspect that if the Minimum wage or estate tax parts could make it out of committee as individual bills, the opposition to either would load them with poison pill amendments and neither would get passed. Bundling them seemed like an acceptable compromise to me, with both sides giving a bit to get somthing they wanted.

Quote:

I'll turn it around a bit. Why do we have to reward the rich. Why make things easier on them?

I thought the American dream was you work hard, play by the rules and get ahead. Instead we continue to stack the deck so that the best decision you can make to ensure a successful future is to choose to be born rich.



One part of the American dream is to provide a better life for your children. That's why you work hard to get ahead. The way it works now; if you're very successful, you get to give up to 30% of your children's inheritance to the government as the price of being smart enough to make more money.



"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 3:36 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


WASHINGTON - Hiring slowed in July as employers added just 113,000 new jobs, propelling the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 4.8 percent




Wow...4.8% !! Worst economy in the past 50 yrs, huh?

ROFLOL!

Please.

People love a happy ending. So every episode, I will explain once again that I don't like people. And then Mal will shoot someone. Someone we like. And their puppy. - Joss

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 3:49 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
...do you (think) $7.20 an hour is going to allow anyone to afford health insurance, buy a home, and improve their lives? Assuming a full time job, $7.20/ hr grosses $17,000/ year before taxes.


Actually, I do. Figure a couple working minimum wage jobs would see an $8,000/yr income bump, to $34,000. Figure a couple with one spouse making the average hourly salary of $16.76(say $35,000/yr) and the other the new minimum wage. That's a $4,000/yr bump to $53,000.00. I can see lots of ways an additional $4,000 to $8,000 could improve people's lives.
Quote:

You're always (talking) about how "the system works". Have you suddenly (decided it doesn't)? That ... $6 billion loss could fund something like... Head Start which right now is funded at about $7 billion. Or WIC which is funded at about $6 billion.

But we both know that, unfortunately, that money will never be allocated like that. Remember that when I mention "the system works" I also apply the caveat that it works slowly, imperfectly, and with many fits and stops.

Quote:

And now...let's examine your math.


My math is that I'd rather have lots of people getting a bigger paycheck at the end of the week, and if that means than the government gets a little less tax revenue, I see it as a fair trade.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 6:15 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


How do you suppose a present day minimum wage earner would react to the bill?

Senator: We have tabled a bill that would see you earn an extra $2.10 per hour over the next three years. That is a forty percent increase.

Minimum Wage Earner: I will be paid more to do the same job? That sounds too good to be true.

Senator: Of course we are also repealing the estate tax on inheritances under 5 million dollars.

Minimum Wage Earner: So you said I will get a forty percent raise over the next three years with no strings attached?

Somewhat simplistic, I know, but are the Democrats not seeing the forest for the trees?

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 6:16 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

...do you (think) $7.20 an hour is going to allow anyone to afford health insurance, buy a home, and improve their lives? Assuming a full time job, $7.20/ hr grosses $17,000/ year before taxes-Signy

Actually, I do- Geezer.

Then you're stupid Geezer
Quote:

Figure a couple working minimum wage jobs would see an $8,000/yr income bump, to $34,000. Figure a couple with one spouse making the average hourly salary of $16.76(say $35,000/yr) and the other the new minimum wage. That's a $4,000/yr bump to $53,000.00. I can see lots of ways an additional $4,000 to $8,000 could improve people's lives-Geezer
I smell a lot of "if" coming offa that plan. Only 38% of minimum-wagers work full-time. "Married, spouse present" makes up only 24% of the that and only 15% of the female minimum-wage population.

Quote:

You're always (talking) about how "the system works". Have you suddenly lost faith? That ... $6 billion loss could fund something like... Head Start which right now is funded at about $7 billion. Or WIC which is funded at about $6 billion.-Signy

But we both know that, unfortunately, that money will never be allocated like that. Remember that when I mention "the system works" I also apply the caveat that it works slowly, imperfectly, and with many fits and stops.

First of all never is a looooong time. What you just said is that the system will NEVER work.

So- why not? Are you saying that Congress is irretrievably controlled by wealth? If that were the case wouldn't you say that is a good reason to vote them out in November? A yes or no will be sufficient.

Quote:

And now...let's examine your math. -Signy
My math is that I'd rather have lots of people getting a bigger paycheck at the end of the week, and if that means than the government gets a little less tax revenue, I see it as a fair trade- Geezer

Of course you would see it as a fair trade. You're not the one trying to live on $12,000 a year and depending on WIC, Head Start, Food Stamps, and the other crumbs that are tossed to the poor.

This "inheritance for the wealthy" is really near and dear to your heart, isn't it? You'd scrape the poor off the bottom of your shoe like dog shit, and find all kinds of justifications for it. Now I know exactly who you are.

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 7:05 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Quote:


Originally posted by SignyM:
This "inheritance for the wealthy" is really near and dear to your heart, isn't it? You'd scrape the poor off the bottom of your shoe like dog shit, and find all kinds of justifications for it. Now I know exactly who you are.



Perhaps the minimum wage issue is near and dear to Geezer's heart. I thought Firefly fans would see the necessity of 'greasing the wheels' on occasion for the greater good.

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 8:03 AM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
Perhaps the minimum wage issue is near and dear to Geezer's heart. I thought Firefly fans would see the necessity of 'greasing the wheels' on occasion for the greater good.


Here was the grease:
Permanent reduction in estate tax (estimated as a $268 billion loss in revenue over the next 10 years)
Other tax breaks and federal aid ($38 billion - I'm guessing this is per year, not sure)
Provision to allow restaurant employers to pay less than the minimum wage for those who work for tips (apparently because minimum really doesn't mean minimum)

At the same time the Senate passed pension legislation. Just pension legislation, no extra provisions. It passed 93 to 5.

* edited to add: I just found some fascinating information (from http://www.cbpp.org/8-2-06tax2.htm ). The minimum wage was last increased almost a decade ago. Since that time the estate tax exemption has increased and/or the top rate has been reduced every year except in 2001. In 1997, all estates under $600,000 were exempt. By 2006, this number has increased to $2,000,000.

So, going by the logic that the two should be coupled, we should've been increasing the minimum wage every year except 2001.

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 9:13 AM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
I suspect that if the Minimum wage or estate tax parts could make it out of committee as individual bills, the opposition to either would load them with poison pill amendments and neither would get passed. Bundling them seemed like an acceptable compromise to me, with both sides giving a bit to get somthing they wanted.


And yet, if you look at my last post, you'll see that there has been no problem reducing the estate tax burden in eight of the last nine years.
Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
One part of the American dream is to provide a better life for your children. That's why you work hard to get ahead. The way it works now; if you're very successful, you get to give up to 30% of your children's inheritance to the government as the price of being smart enough to make more money.


You're neglecting the part where you're aided in becoming successful by infrastructure (built or subsidized by taxpayer dollars), an educated workforce (mostly educated by taxpayer dollars), a safe and secure arena to operate in (protected through the spending of taxpayer dollars), incentives and loopholes (where the rest of the taxpayers pick up the slack), etc. How much more successful are you because of those investments made by taxpayers? Hard to say. Thirty percent? Maybe. Maybe more.

What the estate tax does is allow you to reap the extra benefits of operating in the US while you live. Then, when you die, some of that goes back to maintain the system that will allow the next generation of employers to be more successful. What repealing of the estate tax does is allow specific families to remove themselves from the equation forever. "Thanks for all the help. We've got ours. Bye bye now."

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 9:19 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by TheRightStuff1:
You think your being clever but he is the reason we all have more money now! President Bush is saving us all financially and giving us the chance to save our souls. You want to laugh at him but I laugh at you! You want to be one with the Devil just keep on this path you idiot!
You CHOOSETO BE ONE!!!
PS.,its warming to get ready for where your headed l.o.l.

TheRightStuff1



"You think your being clever..." Yes. More clever than you, obviously - although that's not saying much...

"...he is the reason we all have more money now!" Too bad you didn't use any of yours on education, specifically on spelling and grammar lessons.

"You want to laugh at him but I laugh at you!" But not nearly as much as I laugh at you. And at him. And at you both, together.

"You want to be one with the Devil just keep on this path you idiot!" I love your use of irony: using a horribly constructed, terribly punctuated sentence to call someone else an idiot.

"You CHOOSETO BE ONE!!!" Whereas you arrived there through generations of selective inbreeding, I guess.

"PS.,its warming to get ready for where your headed l.o.l." That's actually the first time I've heard a fundamentalist nutjob admit that there *IS* such a thing as global warming. Of course, in your world, that's by design (intelligent design?), simply to prepare the rest of us for "where your headed". So, if that's where we're headed, you're (note the correct spelling and punctuation of the contraction) okay with Bush doing the driving? That figures. You seem *almost* as stupid your beloved leader, and willing to follow him into ANY folly.

I'm glad you showed me just who Bush's "real" believers and followers are; now I never need to wonder again. They are true fucking morons, absolute knee-biting, mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging dolts.

Mike

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Saturday, August 5, 2006 11:33 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Only 38% of minimum-wagers work full-time. "Married, spouse present" makes up only 24% of the that and only 15% of the female minimum-wage population.


And increasing the minimum wage wouldn't help these people? Of course it's not going to help everyone equally, but I fail to see how increasing folks' pay is a bad thing.

Quote:

Are you saying that Congress is irretrievably controlled by wealth? If that were the case wouldn't you say that is a good reason to vote them out in November?

We had a nice discussion a while back about campaign finance reform. That seems the place to discuss wealth's influence on Congress. I'm planning on letting campaign finance reform be one of the issues that informs my voting.
Quote:

Of course you would see it as a fair trade. You're not the one trying to live on $12,000 a year and depending on WIC, Head Start, Food Stamps, and the other crumbs that are tossed to the poor.

No I'm not. If I was, I think I'd appreciate that extra $2.10 an hour more than seeing someone elses money disappear into the Treasury.
Quote:

This "inheritance for the wealthy" is really near and dear to your heart, isn't it?

If I thought that the Minimum wage could make it through as a stand-alone, I'd say do it. I don't think that will happen. The Dems must not either, or I suppose they'd propose it. I don't care one way or the other about the Estate tax. It'll never impact me. It just seemed there was a chance to make a deal to get a Minimim tax increased passed, and the Dems wouldn't compromise enough to get what they say they've wanted for years.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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