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The Cliff: Will it happen? What does it mean?

POSTED BY: ANTHONYT
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 1, 2013 07:47
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Monday, December 31, 2012 4:18 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/31/politics/fiscal-cliff/index.html?hpt=hp_
c1


Hello,

As time runs out, I wonder if the lawmakers in congress really are going to let our country go off the proverbial 'Fiscal Cliff' and I also wonder what that will mean for us as a nation and as individuals.

I have read in the past that the debt ceiling is tied up in these negotiations. Which just adds more uncertainty to the mix.

What do you think? Will they make an 11th hour compromise? Will we 'go over the cliff'? And if so, so what?

--Anthony

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Monday, December 31, 2012 8:40 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,

The President is making remarks now about the Cliff, but I can't get them from here. Anyone want to summarize?

--Anthony


Note to Self:
Raptor - woman testifying about birth control is a slut (the term applies.)
Context: http://tinyurl.com/d6ozfej
Six - Wow, isn't Niki quite the CUNT? And, yes, I spell that in all caps....
http://tinyurl.com/bdjgbpe
Wulf - Niki is a stupid fucking bitch who should hurry up and die.
Context: http://tinyurl.com/afve3r9

“The stupid neither forgive nor forget; the naive forgive and forget; the wise forgive but do not forget.” -T. S. Szasz

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Monday, December 31, 2012 8:42 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Obama has made clear that the debt ceiling will not be dealt with in conjunction with the fiscal cliff negotiations. But it's going to have to be dealt with soon after, which means yet ANOTHER massive debacle, because the Republicans are already vowing to put up a fight.

As to the fiscal cliff itself, it's anyone's guess. Both sides sort of want to go off the cliff, for their own reasons, and both sides DON'T want to go off the cliff, for far more logical reasons.

The Republicans (at least the Tea Party faction) want to go over because then they can say they've CUT taxes for all but the very rich, as opposed to raising them. How stupid is that?

The Democrats (at least some of them) want to go over because then it will be the Republicans' fault (equally stupid).

Obama made an offer last Summer that would have been really good for the Republicans; they refused it and now they're in a position where he doesn't have to offer much of anything. Recently he offered to cut the chained consumer price index (CPI)basing Social Security cost-of-living adjustments; they rejected that, now he's pulled that offer.

Essentially, Republicans have backed themselves into a corner. Obama has made three offers which they have rejected would have given them better deals than what they'd get with the situation as it is now.

as of 1:04 pm ET yesterday:
Quote:

A Senate Republican aide confirmed that Republicans have agreed to a Democratic proposal to raise the income threshold for increased tax rates to $450,000 for households and $400,000 for individuals.

Where that's gone since then, I dunno.

I don't know where the cessation of unemployment benefits comes into it; those benefits will stop completely next week, which will hurt the economy. I don't know where the rest of the cuts will stand, IF they get a deal, nor where Obama's wish for another stimulus.

As far as I'm concerned, I THINK they'll come up with something at the very last minute. It really doesn't do either side any good to let us go off, despite their ridiculous reasons for wanting to. But I think any deal will be a real mess, hodge-podged together at the last minute, and most of the stuff in the sequester will remain unsolved.

In other words, we is in deep shit, whether they make a last-minute deal or not.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, December 31, 2012 8:47 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I'm getting this as of a few minutes ago:
Quote:

Apparently, Biden and McConnell agree on Clinton-era 39.6% top rate for people who make $400K and up and couples, $450K and up, according to @JohnHarwood. They've also agreed on: 40% tax on estates over $5 million.

Gonna go tune in the TV and see what I can find...

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, December 31, 2012 9:03 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Transcribing what I'm hearing:

Deal "in sight", NOT yet agreed to:

Raise taxes on all but 2%
Keep tax cuts for families with children
" " college
" " clean energy
Keep unemployment insurance going

That seems to be all he's saying about a possible "deal"...he's yattering on about the sequestration cuts which will still go into effect.

Down the line he wants to "Find ways to reduce medicare costs; "BUT" has to go together with tax code revisions (loopholes, etc.). If Republicans think I will reduce deficit through spending cuts alone that will hurt seniors, students, middle class, without asking equivalent sacrifice from millionaires, corporations, not gonna work. Not gonna happen while I'm President.

"For now immediate priority is to stop taxes going up starting tomorrow. Think that is a modest goal we can accomplish. Congress has to get this done; they're close, but they're not there yet. One thing we know about this Congress is if there's one second left, they will use that second. Looks like I will be hanging out here on New Years--you guys are too...can I come to your house? I don't want to spoil the party." (laughter)

And more politispeak about being focused on families, students, grandmas, "folks out there working very hard, expect leaders to succeed..."

That's it. He just finished. Let's see what the pundits have to say.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, December 31, 2012 9:16 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Pundits: President using bully pulpit to pressure Congress. McConnel & Biden been working overnight, agree about:

Tax height threshold (raise on individuals $400, families $450)
Estate tax from 35 to 40%
Unemployment extended

Remaining sticking point: Sequestration. That'w what negotiators continuing to hammer out.

Obama speech really part of larger message. But mapped out contours of more details.

New revenues of hundred of billions of dollars, not the $1+ trillion he wanted.

"Possible" it'll get passed, not for sure.

House aides (Rep AND Dem) not receiving his comments well, transparent attempt to jam the sense that deal is being done. "Supposed to be the trigger that would force us to do something, and we're kicking it down the road".

Republicans "Yeah, let's stick it to the rich, not touch spending"

May not come up for a vote "can't possibly pass the house"

Republicans may vote no and let Democrats, House and Senate, carry it--thus keeping promise not to raise taxes.

"No deal is better than a bad deal". (Sen. Harken)

"Like college of cardinals, done behind doors and we're waiting for white smoke or black smoke." (Didn't catch name)

"Don't have specifics, ideal good deal before cliff, bad deal wake up tomorrow with something bad."

"Political theater, we were brought back to Washington for nothing. We're not doing anything; we have to be here so we can vote if a deal comes through, but right now, WE're not doing anything. This (interview) is the highlight of my day." (Weller of Vermont) "It's an indictment of Congress"

(Doesn't sound great)

That's it for me, gonna head out to have breakfast and watch further developments.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, December 31, 2012 9:22 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Politicians are merely rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, and nothing more.

The " proposals " by Obama are the most absurd sort of tripe, amounting to exactly nothing when it comes to bringing down the deficit. He doesn't want to, of course, because this man is a committed, hard core hater of US power and prestige, and he wants to knock this country down a few pegs, at any and all cost.

The GOP, those not on board w/ the TEA party crowd, are nothing more than fat cats and cowards, too scared to do the right thing, and instead more interested in holding onto power, staying in office, and keeping things in DC as much status quo as possible, so they can continue to play the game.

Taxing the rich more will have zero impact on balancing the budget, and everyone in DC knows this. The Dems simply want to play the class warfare card, because that's all they have.

"False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil." - Socrates

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, December 31, 2012 10:13 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,

Thank you for these updates, Niki.

--Anthony


Note to Self:
Raptor - woman testifying about birth control is a slut (the term applies.)
Context: http://tinyurl.com/d6ozfej
Six - Wow, isn't Niki quite the CUNT? And, yes, I spell that in all caps....
http://tinyurl.com/bdjgbpe
Wulf - Niki is a stupid fucking bitch who should hurry up and die.
Context: http://tinyurl.com/afve3r9

“The stupid neither forgive nor forget; the naive forgive and forget; the wise forgive but do not forget.” -T. S. Szasz

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 31, 2012 10:19 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


More info:

Estate Tax:

Was 35% for estates over $5 mil.
Fiscal Cliff: 55% for estates over $1 mil.
Possible Agreement: 40% for estates over $5 mil.

Win: Republicans

From the Republicans:

They didn't like Obama's "tone". Language "combative"
McCain: "Cheerleading...ridiculing of Republicans"

Word is it WOULD pass the House (as much as they know of it now) IF Boehner let it come to a vote. Whether he will/would or not, unknown.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, December 31, 2012 10:47 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Where are the spending CUTS, Niki ? You focus on the tax increases, but completely ignore the root of the problem.

Tax the rich at 100%, won't get us to righting our fiscal house. The 'rich' not being taxed enough isn't remotely the problem here, and all the discussion on taxing them more is window dressing, nothing more.

"False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil." - Socrates

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, December 31, 2012 11:23 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


As to spending cuts...the Dems tried, back in July of 2011:
Quote:

The Senate Democratic debt-limit bill would cut future spending by $2.2 trillion over 10 years — much deeper than the House GOP alternative, according to figures Congress‘ chief scorekeeper released early Wednesday.

The Congressional Budget Office said the plan by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would raise the government’s borrowing limit by $2.7 trillion, and cut $2.2 trillion from future spending, chiefly by limiting the amount of money spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

House Speaker John A. Boehner’s plan, meanwhile, would produce just $850 billion in savings, versus $900 billion in new debt authority, according to a CBO analysis released late Tuesday. That sent the Ohio Republican back to the drawing board to rewrite his bill to try to meet his own pledge of topping any debt increase dollar-for-dollar with new spending cuts.

Meanwhile, after seeing their spending cuts come in lower than they had expected, House Republicans canceled a vote on their bill, slated for Wednesday, and said they would rework the plan. More at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/27/democrats-debt-bill-be
ats-gop-version-spending-cut/
]
Republicans rejected it.

They tried again in November:
Quote:

The new deficit-reduction plan from several Democrats on the congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the "supercommittee") marks a dramatic departure from traditional Democratic positions — and actually stands well to the right of plans by the co-chairs of the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson commission and the Senate's "Gang of Six," and even further to the right of the plan by the bipartisan Rivlin-Domenici commission. The Democratic plan contains substantially smaller revenue increases than those bipartisan proposals while, for example, containing significantly deeper cuts in Medicare and Medicaid than the Bowles-Simpson plan. The Democratic plan features a substantially higher ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases than any of the bipartisan plans.

Although the new plan thus moves considerably closer to Republican positions than any of the bipartisan plans, Republicans have been quick to reject it. This rejection likely dooms chances that Congress will be able to pass a big, bipartisan plan. The counter-offer by Republican members of the supercommittee, reflecting little or no movement on tax increases and calling for even deeper spending cuts than in the Democratic plan — including severe Medicaid cuts that would impose significant harm on low-income children, parents, and elderly and disabled people — appears to leave little room for progress.

The significance of the Democratic plan stands out clearly from its basic numbers:

¦ The Democratic plan contains $73 billion more in Medicare and Medicaid cuts ($475 billion) than Bowles-Simpson ($402 billion), and the same or a greater amount of cuts in this area than the Gang of Six plan.[1]

¦ At the same time, the Democratic plan contains $800 to $900 billion less in revenue increases than the Bowles-Simpson and Gang of Six plans.[2]

¦ The cuts in discretionary programs are as deep in the Democratic plan as in Bowles-Simpson and the Gang of Six. [3]

¦ When considered in conjunction with the discretionary program cuts enacted in the Budget Control Act of this past summer and measured against the baseline that Bowles-Simpson and the Gang of Six used, the Democratic plan results in a much greater ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases — at least 6 to 1, as Table 2 shows — than Bowles-Simpson and the Gang of Six, both of which had 2-to-1 ratios, including debt-service savings. Bowles-Simpson and the Gang of Six used a baseline that assumes that the Bush upper-income tax cuts will expire as scheduled. Relative to that baseline, those plans had $1.2 to $1.4 trillion in revenue increases, while the Democratic plan has about $400 billion. Relative to a current-policy baseline that assumes that Congress will extend all of the Bush tax cuts, the Gang of Six and Bowles-Simpson had $2.1 to $2.2 trillion in revenue increases, and the Democratic plan has $1.3 trillion. (See Table 1; under this baseline, the spending-cut-to-tax-increase ratios for the three plans are lower, but a substantial gap remains between the ratio for the Democratic plan and that for the two bipartisan plans.)

¦ The Democratic plan has $200 billion in Medicare beneficiary cuts, a level that exceeds the beneficiary cuts in Bowles-Simpson (the Gang of Six is not specific on this point) and is eight times the level of Medicare beneficiary cuts in the budget plan that President Obama released on September 19. Since half of Medicare beneficiaries have incomes below about $21,000, it would be extremely difficult to secure $200 billion in savings from increased Medicare beneficiary charges without requiring significantly larger out-of-pocket payments by beneficiaries with incomes as low as $12,000 or $15,000.More and tables at http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3605


I guess now that their backs are against the wall, Obama doesn't feel he needs to compromise anymore. I have no doubt spending cuts will be coming along real soon; right now the focus is on stopping the tax increases.

Probably doesn't matter, since the best possibility is that Boehner won't bring it to a vote, so it can't pass the House...even if it did, getting it in place before tomorrow, what with the "72-hour limit", is pretty impossible.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Monday, December 31, 2012 11:31 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Well, there we go. House Republicans have just now stated that they will not bring anything to a vote, no matter what the Senate does. They're going home. They just waited to make it official until the markets were closed...so all the efforts were for nothing.

The only sticking point keeping the legislation from agreement is the mandatory spending cuts Congress put in place to force themselves to make cuts--in other words, the sequester. All up until now, it's been about the tax cuts expiring; now suddenly the Republicans want sequestration dealt with TODAY, right now, as well.

They had a deal on everything else--everything--so rather than at LEAST keeping the American people from enduring tax increases, then dealing with the sequester after the First, they'll let the tax cuts expire, they'll let the sequester happen.

Talk about cuting off your nose to spite your face...!

S'all over, folks. We go over the cliff. Wheeeee...

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, January 1, 2013 7:47 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


So apparently after I went to bed, the Senate (which STAYED, rather than going home to get drunk and welcome the New Year--the increased taxes of course wouldn't bother THEM!) came up with something at the last possible minute. So now it's up to the House. Anyone wanna take bets that they won't pass it?
Quote:

A House GOP leadership aide tells CNN's Dana Bash that any decision about a House vote on the fiscal cliff measure will come after a second GOP meeting later this afternoon (a first meeting is slated for 1 p.m. ET).

“The purpose of this meeting is to review what the Senate has passed, discuss potential options, and seek member feedback," the aide said of the 1 p.m. meeting. "No decision on the path forward is expected before another member meeting that will be held later today.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/01/latest-updates-house-r
eadies-for-fiscal-cliff-vote/?hpt=hp_t1


I wonder how much money all this bullshit is costing the taxpayers, like in confusion about taxes, delayed taxes, delayed tax refunds and everything in the sequester? Sure are glad we've got those good old "fiscal conservatives" who are so worried about the debt...

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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