It's not a significant correction until the DOW hits 15,000 by SIGNYM

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

It's not a significant correction until the DOW hits 15,000

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Saturday, September 5, 2015 16:21
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 2257
PAGE 1 of 1

Friday, August 21, 2015 2:17 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

That's approximately 20% lower than its recent peak of about 18,500. In 2011, the DOW was about 10,000. But below 15,000, it becomes a rout.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, August 21, 2015 6:25 PM

WHOZIT

Sometimes when I read your posts, I want to take hostages.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, August 22, 2015 2:06 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Yanno, I'm sorry to say but it's common knowledge that the stock market is overvalued. It wasn't a question about IF it would go down, but simply "when". I told a co-worker about six months ago that the market had more-or-less-topped out, that you would see a lot of 400-point "chop", but that it would move when the Fed decided to raise interest rates.

Because the market clearly hasn't been responding to the economy. In the past, the market went up when the economy was doing well. That's because investors could look forward to increasing corporate revenues and increasing corporate earnings.

But lately, it's been the opposite: The market goes UP when an economic indicator goes DOWN. That's because everybody's got an eye on The Fed and it's zero-interest-rate policy which stays in place as long as economic indicators are anemic ... banks and corporations are investing in stocks by borrowing money at near-zero-rates, leading to a stock market "bubble". Once rates change, that comes to a screeching halt and the bubble bursts.

I'm not sure what the market is responding to this time ... it's all run by algos anyway ... but a news source (I don't remember which) accidentally released FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) notes which indicated that they might raise rates next month.

Or maybe the stock market is FINALLY responding to collapsing world-economic activity, as indicating by collapsing commodities (you don't need copper, oil, and steel if you're not making/ building anything).

My point is that I wouldn't invest in stocks until they had corrected by 20% or more.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, September 4, 2015 1:22 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Patience. There's 1000 more points down to go. Even then, you might decide to wait and see.

These are good times for day-traders, and people who do options. If you've got the time and the money and the nerve and the knowledge ... but mostly the time to watch the stock market like a hawk, minute-by-minute ... you can try to outplay the algos.

But if you're like most people and you have a job that requires your attention 40 hours a week ... or at least 20 hours a week! ... you won't be able to keep up. The best you can do is follow the long-term trends, when markets change by 20% or more. It may take several years for the market to go up again, but if you buy near the bottom with money you don't need right away, you can afford to wait.

-------

A lot depends on what the Fed does. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock markets will go down, the dollar will go up, foreign currencies will go down, and gold will go down (relative to the dollar). If the Fed DOESN'T raise interest rates the stock markets will explode with joy and zoom up a few thousand points. I've never seen such a manipulated market before. There is a lot of pressure on the USA to raise rates, and curiously it's coming from foreign nations who would like their currencies to become cheaper (relative to the dollar) so that the USA can once again become the World Shopper, and they can start exporting stuff. Basically, so that we can play along with their currency war.

What that would do is hurt the USA economy, of course. Production and employment would decrease ... but heck, people would probably be pacified by cheap imports. It doesn't bode well for the future of the USA, but I"m not sure what pressures the Fed is responding to. So I'm in a wait-an-see mode.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Friday, September 4, 2015 4:26 PM