REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

MSNBC: Household debt tops $16 trillion for the first time, fueled by higher inflation and interest rates

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Saturday, July 8, 2023 06:52
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Tuesday, August 2, 2022 6:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/household-debt-tops-16-trillion-as-inf
lation-surges-and-rates-rise.html


Let's do a little inventory here... what kind of debt am I sitting on again?

Mortgage payments are 0.

Car payments... Nah. Don't have one of those.

Student debt? Hah! As if.

Outstanding balance on my bonus point cards? That's going to be a big fat ZERO.

Yup. No debt still. Not for 17 years this month.


Got a freezer and pantry full of food. Got a big ole' pile of materials for DIY projects around the house on hand. Got 6 more years paid off on my VOIP phone. Got my cable bill down to $20 per month.


Damn dudes and dudettes. How are you all so bad at this? I haven't had to say Yes to a boss since June of 2019.

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Wednesday, August 3, 2022 11:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


CNN: Americans are piling up credit card debt as they struggle to keep up with the high cost of living

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/economy/consumer-credit-borrowing-surge
/index.html



We're not there yet, but it looks like it might just be right around the time that Jack pays cash for his first flat screen TV that wasn't a hand me down. Bet I could get one of those $1,000 75 inchers for about $200 in a few months.

People gotta eat.

Keep that inflation coming, Joe*.



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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Thursday, August 4, 2022 12:23 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


People don't gotta eat. People gotta have their phones.

All the TVs are gonna be shoplifted by the time you get there, Jack.

4 x $200 is less than the shoplifting threshold.

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Thursday, August 4, 2022 2:27 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
People don't gotta eat. People gotta have their phones.

All the TVs are gonna be shoplifted by the time you get there, Jack.

4 x $200 is less than the shoplifting threshold.



I'm not buying them from the store, silly.

I'm buying the TV that people are going to still be paying off on credit cards for another year or two after I take it right out of their houses.

--------------------------------------------------

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Friday, August 5, 2022 12:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... Here's one of the major reasons.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-apartments-rising-housing-market-us/

Quote:

Apartment rents are shooting up in hundreds of cities across the U.S. Here's why.

...

In New York City, the average monthly rent stands at a whopping $5,812. In Pflugerville, Texas, an Austin suburb, the average monthly rent is $4,451. In Jersey City, New Jersey, renters can expect to shell out $4,421 on average, according to Apartmentguide.com.



LOL...

$2,593. That's what I've spent in 7 months this year for everything I need to live, with all major bills for the year out of the way except for my 2nd half of the property taxes. It's what I've spent this year minus only what I've put into home improvement projects. That even includes the $400 or so I needed to dump into repairs and a few tanks of Biden* tax hike gas while getting my car to pass emissions.

Even if you include home improvement repair costs, I've still paid less for literally every single thing I've bought and bill that's come than the average monthly rent in Jersey City by about $125, Pflugerville, Texas by about $150 and New York City by about $1,500. And I've got a lawn so big it takes me two hours to mow it with so much free space in my house I could rent it out to a family of 4 while I'm living here if I wanted to.

SPOILER ALERT: Rent receipts don't make good wallpaper, and they make terrible toilet paper. Ask me how I know.

Quote:

More inventory hitting the market could provide some relief. But as long as mortgage rates remain elevated, more Americans will be inclined to rent rather than taking the plunge into homeownership.


Yeah. Good luck with that. You people have screwed the housing market up so bad in the last 25 years that the only houses the contractors can afford to build and make any money off of are the McMansions that cost $600/mo during the winter just to keep at a reasonably warm temperature. Do you know how much coal is being burnt every year just keeping two elderly Boomers warm in their 4,000 sq/ft juggernauts? Yanno, the ones they had to make handicapped accessible every step of the way because they can't even travel all that space without help anymore. For every fancy Jacuzzi tub that was initially installed in the 300 sq/ft+ bathrooms, half of those have since been gutted to make room for walk in showers for the Boomers. Don't believe me? Take a day to do some fake house shopping and take a peek at the bathrooms for yourself.

Quote:

Renting is cheaper than buying in three-quarters of the country's 50 largest metro areas, according to Realtor.com. On average, first-time homebuyers can expect their monthly payments to top $2,400, versus $1,876 to rent the typical apartment.


That's so fucked. The last time I rented, the new management wanted me out so bad because I wouldn't re-sign their lease and initial that I wouldn't smoke in the apartment that they raised my monthly payment $125 per month two years in a row and I when I left I thought I was being ripped off at $895 per month for a two bedroom apartment.

It's double that now? Only a decade later? WTF?

Quote:

"So when that [mortgage] rate starts coming down we then may start to see some movement from renters to buyers, but until that happens we are still seeing a lot of upward pressure on those rental properties," Carberry said.


When the mortgage rate starts coming down? LOL

Don't hold your breath, buddy. Mortgage rates aren't coming back down for a good while now. The FED is already indicating another 50 point rate hike next month, and are eyeing a total rate of 3.4% by the end of the year.

That's still not going to be enough. Regardless of the fact that Republicans are going to gut the Democrats out of power in November, the rates are going to continue being raised into summer at least. (And if there is a single ounce of responsibility left in Washington, they WON'T come back down).

The housing market crash I predicted (incorrectly) back in the late aughts is the one that's going to happen right now. Sure... We had a housing market crash back then, but that was speculative bubbles bursting everywhere.

THIS will be the reason that the housing market crashes again now.

In December 2021, a 30 year mortgage rate was 2.70%

In July 2022 it was 5.51%

Let's do some math, (You can verify it here https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/ ), assuming that the house you own and are looking to sell is appraised at $250,000.

Assuming they make no additional payments in 30 years, somebody who bought your house in December of last year at a rate of 2.70% will find their monthly mortgage will be $912.59. They will end up paying $103,534.07 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $328,534.07 for them.


Now, assuming they make no additional payments in 30 years, somebody has 10% down and wants to buy it in July of this year with a 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.51%. For that same house, their monthly mortgage payment will be $1,278.94. They will end up paying $235,417.53 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $460,417.43.

Do you see where this is going yet?

Interest on a 30 year mortgage back in December for a $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being 41.4% of the appraised value of the home.

Interest on a 30 year mortgage last month for that same $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being 94.2% of the appraised value of the home.

The buyer is now going to be paying nearly double the appraised price of the house over 30 years with a 5.51% mortgage rate.

How long do you think your house is going to be worth $250,000 in this scenario?

Which brings some other questions... How likely is it going to be that any home builders are going to be building any new homes to open up the shortage in housing when standard framing 2x4's are nearly $5 each, but the homes are going to be plummeting in value because of high interest rates?


What happens when the FED raises their rate to 3.4% by the end of the year? Possibly over 5% by summer of next year?

Let's just add 1.25% to mortgage rates to give a conservative estimate of what will be coming with the same scenario above....



Interest on a 30 year mortgage in a very plausible future of 6.75% for a $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being $300,364.46. The buyer's monthly mortgage payment is now $1549.35. Total cost of your $250,000 home now costs the buyer $525,364.46 after 30 years. Total interest payments over 30 years are now 120.1% of the appraised value of the home.

This is not tenable. The $250,000 appraised value of your home is untenable.


And I hate to break it to you, but even 6.75% for montage rates is fairly low, historically speaking. Between 1971 and one brief moment in 1998 you never even saw a rate that cheap. It wasn't until the 3rd quarter of 2002 that rates finally dipped below that number and have never been that high again.

(Verify the above statement here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US )

Ripples...

The Joe Biden* economy was the final nail in the coffin for 25 years of extreme mismanagement of the economy by Washington elite on both sides of the aisle.

If you're not already prepared, you'd best start preparing while you still can.

Winter is coming.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Friday, August 5, 2022 12:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hey... For shits and gigs, let's take a look at what your $250,000 home will cost a buyer if rates ever get as high again as the average 30 year mortgage rate on October 9th of 1981, which was 18.63%.

(Verify here: https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/ )

Buyer puts 10% down ($25,000).

Monthly mortgage payment on a 30 year mortgage for $225,000 is now $3,506.81.

Total interest paid after 30 years is now $1,037,452.11.

Total cost to buyer for your home appraised at $250,000 is now $1,262,452.11.

Interest is now 415% of the appraised value of the home after 30 years.


Yeah. Sorry... Nobody is going to pay 1.25 Million for your $250,000 house.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Friday, August 5, 2022 12:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


And what do you think the chances are going to be that local taxing authorities are going to be lowering your property tax payments when your house is worth 1/4 of what it was a few years from now after taking every chance they could to gouge the fuck out of you for the last 20 years on property taxes when the value of your home was increasing because the rates were irresponsibly low for so long?

If you answered anything but zero, you just might be a retard.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 11:39 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


VOX: The inflation prices that broke us

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/23290799/inflation-price-increases-gas-g
rocery-store


Even Vox is starting to get it.

RELATED: Vox Media lays off 39 people amid economic uncertainty

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/27/vox-media-layoffs-economic-uncertaint
y



Keep that inflation coming, Joe.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 12:53 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
VOX: The inflation prices that broke us

Keep that inflation coming, Joe.

This is a graph of inflation in percent for Natural Gas. How can anyone, other than a buyer of natural gas, see this as anything but a huge benefit for sellers of natural gas? Capitalists earned these rewards. If you don't think Capitalists deserve this wealth than stop buying natural gas because the President of the United States has no power to force Capitalists to lower prices. America is a perfect land for the real Capitalists, but not so perfect for those who don't control the price of what they have to buy. Too bad, so sad, for them.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SyTH


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 1:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Joe Biden* doomed Americans to this economy with the Executive Actions he signed the first day he was in office.

Fuck off with your constant gaslighting, liar.

--------------------------------------------------

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 1:10 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Joe Biden* doomed Americans to this economy with the Executive Actions he signed the first day he was in office.

Fuck off with your constant gaslighting, liar.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

There is a list of the executive orders. None do what you claim, 6ix. Too bad, so sad, for you.

2021 Joseph R. Biden Jr. Executive Orders view all Presidential Documents
https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-order
s/joe-biden/2021


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 1:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

6IXSTRINGJACK:
VOX: The inflation prices that broke us
Keep that inflation coming, Joe.

SECOND: This is a graph of inflation in percent for Natural Gas. How can anyone, other than a buyer of natural gas, see this as anything but a huge benefit for sellers of natural gas? Capitalists earned these rewards.


How? By "working hard"?
OR by sitting on top of resources like a junkyard dog?
That's not "real capitalism", that's "rentier capitalism".
You even posted about it as a bad thing.
Apparently you don't even know what you're posting.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 1:25 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

How? By "working hard"?
OR by sitting on top of these resources like a junkyard dog?
That's not "real capitalism", that's "rentier capitalism".
You even posted about it as a bad thing.
Apparently you don't even know what you're posting.

Sorry to tell you this, but the President of the United States is powerless against real or rentier capitalism. Too bad, so sad, for those who have nothing (except on rare occasions such as a garage sale or estate sale) to sell nor to rent, but they buy (several times a week) and pay rent (once per month).

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 7, 2022 3:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Second is an idiot that just likes to be argumentative with everyone.

It's a godsend to his family that he hasn't gotten both of his handles banned off of here.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Monday, August 8, 2022 8:39 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Second is an idiot that just likes to be argumentative with everyone.

It's a godsend to his family that he hasn't gotten both of his handles banned off of here.

--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

When did you come to believe the marketplace sets prices? People who own the business set prices, not some abstract market mechanism described by Adam Smith 250 years ago. All real Capitalists know how to trick their way around the so-called iron rules of competition in The Wealth of Nations. Today's Capitalists know how to set their prices to benefit only themselves, not to waste money benefiting their fellow citizens.

6ix, the Capitalism of today is not the Capitalism described by Adam Smith:

Adam Smith and "The Wealth of Nations"
By Adam Hayes
Updated June 08, 2022
Reviewed by Michael J Boyle
Fact checked by Ryan Eichler

What was the most important document published in 1776? Most Americans would probably say "The Declaration of Independence." However, many would argue that Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations had a bigger and more global impact.

On March 9, 1776, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations—commonly referred to simply as The Wealth of Nations—was first published. Smith, a Scottish moral philosopher by trade, wrote the book to describe the industrialized capitalist system that was upending the mercantilist system.

Mercantilism held that wealth was fixed and finite. The only way to prosper was to hoard gold and place tariffs on products from abroad. According to this theory, nations should sell their goods to other countries while buying nothing in return. Predictably, countries fell into rounds of retaliatory tariffs that choked off international trade. Trumptards think Mercantilism is best.

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/adam-smith-wealth-of-nations/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, August 8, 2022 10:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
6ix, the Capitalism of today is not the Capitalism described by Adam Smith:



Apparently it's not the same as the Capitalism from early 2020 either.

Hmmmmmmmmm....

What happened in 2020?

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Thursday, September 22, 2022 9:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Rates just went up another .75 yesterday, with more expected this year into next year.

When I get a moment I'll update the numbers.

--------------------------------------------------

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Friday, September 23, 2022 9:47 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Interest on a 30 year mortgage in a very plausible future of 6.75% for a $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being $300,364.46. The buyer's monthly mortgage payment is now $1549.35. Total cost of your $250,000 home now costs the buyer $525,364.46 after 30 years. Total interest payments over 30 years are now 120.1% of the appraised value of the home.

This is not tenable. The $250,000 appraised value of your home is untenable.



Not only a plausible future, but one we already live in not even 2 months after I made this statement.

Quote:

And I hate to break it to you, but even 6.75% for montage rates is fairly low, historically speaking. Between 1971 and one brief moment in 1998 you never even saw a rate that cheap. It wasn't until the 3rd quarter of 2002 that rates finally dipped below that number and have never been that high again.

(Verify the above statement here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US )

Ripples...

The Joe Biden* economy was the final nail in the coffin for 25 years of extreme mismanagement of the economy by Washington elite on both sides of the aisle.

If you're not already prepared, you'd best start preparing while you still can.

Winter is coming.




So... the update:

Now the average rate of a 30 year mortgage is 7.075% for someone with a credit score between 700-719.

Somebody buys your $250,000 house on September 23rd of 2022.

Now, assuming they make no additional payments in 30 years, somebody has 10% down with a 30 year fixed mortgage at 7.075%. Their monthly mortgage payment will be $1,508.28 (Up from $1,278.94 in July). They will end up paying $317,981.13 in interest (Up from $235,417.53 in July). The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $542,981.13 (Up from $460,417.43 in July).

Do you still believe your $250,000.00 house is worth $250,000 when somebody has to pay over half a million bucks for it?

You can bet your ass your local tax authority is going to say that it is. You should fight that when appeal time comes.



--------------------------------------------------

Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Friday, July 7, 2023 11:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (August 5th, 2022):
The housing market crash I predicted (incorrectly) back in the late aughts is the one that's going to happen right now. Sure... We had a housing market crash back then, but that was speculative bubbles bursting everywhere.

THIS [meaning high interest rates] will be the reason that the housing market crashes again now.

In December 2021, a 30 year mortgage rate was 2.70%

In July 2022 it was 5.51%

Let's do some math, (You can verify it here https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/ ), assuming that the house you own and are looking to sell is appraised at $250,000.

Assuming they make no additional payments in 30 years, somebody who bought your house in December of last year at a rate of 2.70% will find their monthly mortgage will be $912.59. They will end up paying $103,534.07 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $328,534.07 for them.


Now, assuming they make no additional payments in 30 years, somebody has 10% down and wants to buy it in July of this year with a 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.51%. For that same house, their monthly mortgage payment will be $1,278.94. They will end up paying $235,417.53 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $460,417.43.

Do you see where this is going yet?

Interest on a 30 year mortgage back in December for a $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being 41.4% of the appraised value of the home.

Interest on a 30 year mortgage last month for that same $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being 94.2% of the appraised value of the home.

The buyer is now going to be paying nearly double the appraised price of the house over 30 years with a 5.51% mortgage rate.

How long do you think your house is going to be worth $250,000 in this scenario?

Which brings some other questions... How likely is it going to be that any home builders are going to be building any new homes to open up the shortage in housing when standard framing 2x4's are nearly $5 each, but the homes are going to be plummeting in value because of high interest rates?


What happens when the FED raises their rate to 3.4% by the end of the year? Possibly over 5% by summer of next year?



07/07/23: It is currently 5.25%.

Quote:

Let's just add 1.25% to mortgage rates to give a conservative estimate of what will be coming with the same scenario above....



Interest on a 30 year mortgage in a very plausible future of 6.75%



07/07/23: According to Freddie Mac in this AP article, it's now at exactly 6.81%.

https://apnews.com/article/mortgage-payment-home-loans-home-prices-aff
ordability-d31e9074ac7a0ebf9950167344b55920

According to Google though, it's much higher.

For somebody with a 700-719 credit score, Mortgage rates are 8.123%
740-759: 7.877%
800 and up: 7.485%

All of these Google figures are MUCH higher than the calculations were based on below, with all but people with credit scores of 800 and above paying 2% more than my "plausible future" scenario.

Quote:

for a $250,000 home with $25,000 down payment ends up being $300,364.46. The buyer's monthly mortgage payment is now $1549.35. Total cost of your $250,000 home now costs the buyer $525,364.46 after 30 years. Total interest payments over 30 years are now 120.1% of the appraised value of the home.

This is not tenable. The $250,000 appraised value of your home is untenable.


And I hate to break it to you, but even 6.75% for montage rates is fairly low, historically speaking. Between 1971 and one brief moment in 1998 you never even saw a rate that cheap. It wasn't until the 3rd quarter of 2002 that rates finally dipped below that number and have never been that high again.

(Verify the above statement here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US )

Ripples...

The Joe Biden* economy was the final nail in the coffin for 25 years of extreme mismanagement of the economy by Washington elite on both sides of the aisle.

If you're not already prepared, you'd best start preparing while you still can.

Winter is coming.



Winter is here.

Your $250,000 house will now cost the next buyer more than double this amount with a 30 year mortgage, with the interest payments now being over 120% of the appraised value of your home.




Elevated mortgage rates are leading to sharply higher monthly payments even as home prices ease

https://apnews.com/article/mortgage-payment-home-loans-home-prices-aff
ordability-d31e9074ac7a0ebf9950167344b55920


Quote:

the national median home price remains nearly 40% higher than it was three years ago. Meanwhile, the average rate on a 30-year home loan climbed to a new high for the year this week at 6.81%, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s more than double what it was two years ago.

The combination, along with a stubbornly low level of homes for sale, is driving mortgage payments higher, pushing the limits of what many homebuyers can afford.

Consider that two years ago the median national monthly payment on home loan applications was $1,320.48, or 63.4% less than what it was last month.



I'm better at Paul Krugman's job than Paul Krugman is.

It's not because I'm a prophet. I just use math instead of feelings when I open my mouth.

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Friday, July 7, 2023 12:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hey, Jaynez.

You should look at my posts from summer of last year as they compare to the rates we've got this year and put that in the predictions thread. I'll bet I was far closer to our current reality than any of the economists that the mainstream media was giving the bullhorn to a year ago.



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Friday, July 7, 2023 12:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Just for the record...

December of 2021: Somebody who bought your house at a rate of 2.70% will find their monthly mortgage will be $912.59. They will end up paying $103,534.07 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $353,534.07 for them.

July of 2022: Somebody who bought your house at a rate of 5.51% will find their monthly mortgage will be $1,278.94. They will end up paying $235,417.53 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $485,417.43 for them.

July of 2023 (According to Freddie Mac's reported average per AP's article): Somebody who bought your house at a rate of 6.81% will find their monthly mortgage will be $1,468.33. They will end up paying $303,599.07 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $553,599.07 for them.

July of 2023 (According to Google's reported average for a credit score of 700-719): Somebody who bought your house at a rate of 8.123% will find their monthly mortgage will be $1,670.30. They will end up paying $376,309.31 in interest. The total cost of that $250,000 house you sold will be $626,309.31 for them.

NOTE: The above figures all consider $25k (10%) down payment, with the $25k factored back in after interest is calculated.



There is an 8/10 chance that the FED will raise short-term rates from 5.25% to 5.50% on July 26th.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/07/01/what-to-look-for-in
-the-feds-july-interest-rate-announcement/?sh=4edff97f58db


Nobody is committing to any hikes beyond that, but many feel that there will be at least one more rate hike in 2023.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Saturday, July 8, 2023 6:52 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Another $500 billion expect more banks and credit card companies to go bust, the West doesn't save anymore.

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