Let's do the odds by mink

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Let's do the odds

POSTED BY: MINK
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 4, 2006 07:19
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 5243
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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:40 PM

So, for all we know the amount of effort currently being put into Firefly/Serenity by people who actually make shows/movies is zero, zip, nada, zilch.

I want to know what you people think the odds are that any series/miniseries/movie set in the 'verse will be greenlighted within the next five years.

Try really hard to imagine that you are betting a significant chunk of change on the outcome. What odds do you think are realistic?

If enough people respond, we can put together the unofficial line on the Firefly comeback.

I'll start us off at 40:1.

It's okay to leave them to die.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:40 PM

MINK

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:46 PM

ADAMWANKENOBI

I'm 100% sure it will, as the second batch of Serenity comics are coming out next year.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:47 PM

ECGORDON

There's no place I can be since I found Serenity.

I have no information on which to base my opinion, and I'm certainly no odds-maker, but I definitely feel that the chances of some Firefly/Serenity film production happening within the next five years is...

100%

wo men ren ran zai fei xing.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:54 PM

MINK

Damn, and I thought I was being optimistic. But comics don't count - I assume you're talking about books, not animation? And if there is animation, let's specify live action. I'm not even talking about original cast or nothing. Nor does Joss have to be involved.

Keep it coming, though, I want to be convinced.

It's okay to leave them to die.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 1:54 PM

MINK

It's okay to leave them to die.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 2:07 PM

ECGORDON

There's no place I can be since I found Serenity.

Quote:
Originally posted by mink:
Nor does Joss have to be involved.

If not Joss, it has to be Tim Minear, or else I'm not interested. And my 100% statement refers to live-action filmed entertainment, either tv or movie, but not animation.

wo men ren ran zai fei xing.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 2:15 PM

MIRACULOUSBUMM

Hey Adamwankenobi, I was just wonderin' where you heard about this new comic series comin' out next year? I've heard rumors, but haven't seen anything factual yet. So I'm already excited, but if you could show me where they said that it'd be great!
Oh yeah, I'm about 25% sure of a movie or TV Series (it has to include Joss and our BDH's)

--------------------------------------------------

Always havin' a good time!

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 2:16 PM

BOWIE

I am 75% sure that something will happen, and am keeping my optomistic levels at 100%. I'm usaully not that optomistic about anything. A large amount of this will count on other people being just as optimistic as me.

We did it before, it was impossible before. I say this means we can do this again.

Its a 1 in a million chance, and you know those always work. :)

If you play Nationstates.net check out the region Firefly.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 2:19 PM

CHINDI

99.99999% sure there will be a live action production- TV, film (most likely) or direct to DVD.

I base this on the fan base, the profitability and Star Trek... it happened before. It will happen again.

Chindi

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 2:36 PM

SHINY

I say there's a 2% chance of a Firefly/Serenity sequel/series with Joss or Tim at the helm and most of the cast intact. But then again, browncoats have always been up against stiff odds. That's what makes us special. :)

---

I don't need a gorram back-spaceship driver!!!

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 3:41 PM

ADAMWANKENOBI

Quote:
Hey Adamwankenobi, I was just wonderin' where you heard about this new comic series comin' out next year? I've heard rumors, but haven't seen anything factual yet. So I'm already excited, but if you could show me where they said that it'd be great!

The comic will be titled (appropriately, might I add) "Better Days", and will be set during the time period of the TV series. Joss Whedon and Brett Matthews will be writing the story, with Will Conrad once again doing the art. See:

http://www.comicon.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=36;t=005
543
http://www.silverbulletcomicbooks.com/rage/114944281592021.htm
http://www.silverbulletcomicbooks.com/rage/115006158346663.htm

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 4:06 PM

MIRAMEL

i'm gonna let my realistic/pessamistic side take this one(because then its so much more fun when i'm wrong), and i'm gonna go ahead and say 10-1 against; which any loonie* would say is more then enough. my 'official browncoat attitude" is that i am 100% sure, because anything else just isn't an option. frankly, thats the one i believe; i DO think to 10-1 is right, i just think that that 1 is gonna be enough.

*reference to heinlein's "moon is a harsh mistress", and not a shortening of the word lunatic

~~~~
98% of teens have smoked pot, if you are one of the 2% that haven't, copy this into your signature
~~
Fear is the Mind Killer
~~~~

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 5:32 PM

MARTIANWAY

The odds go up every time we get a new browncoat...

Optimistically, I'd go with a million to one (they always work) or 100%. Pessimistically, I'd go with somewhere around seventy-five percent, pulling up to about 90% if Firefly/Serenity can keep this level of 'chatter*' going, and if the number of Browncoats continues to increase at the rate it's increasing now.

Here's numbers I'd like to know: based on the volume of people on this site (and assuming for every x number of people with an account, there are y other people who are net-phobic and haven't got one), how many Browncoats do you expect we have, and what's the rate of expansion?

'chatter': awards, interviews, articles, conventions; anything that raises the profile.

"And you can't stop me by gettin' all...bendy..."

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 7:15 PM

MINK

Yes, it would be fascinating if someone could analyze the rate of expansion. Heck, I only watched the BDM two weeks ago. I saw it on HBO, good of them to show it, brings lots of people in that wouldn't otherwise go out of their way.

I had heard of it before, when the movie was coming out, but forgot about it for a year. That's what happens when you have zero marketing to remind you.

Now I'm a complete Firefly tool. And new people keep posting here every day.

It's okay to leave them to die.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 7:15 PM

MINK

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Tuesday, October 3, 2006 8:20 PM

REDLAVA

I always expect the worst and hope for the best. Me thinks that...
-Firefly has a 2% chance of returning to TV.
-Another Serenity major motion picture movie 50% chance.
-Serenity straight to video or Sci-Fi movie 75% chance.
-Books, comics, or graphic novels 100% chance.

But what I think would be intersting and the most practical would be a cartoon for the Adult Swim on Cartoon Channel. We would get our Firefly and the network would only have to spend half as much to get us it. It is win win for everybody.

JMHO

Everybody always has the advantage over us, but that's what makes us special...and Browncoats.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 1:02 AM

BROWNCOAT1

May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.

Screw the odds! We been fighting odds so steep since the day the show went on "hiatus" over at Fox that we are always counted out. We have had people laugh and jeer at us for continuing to keep the faith, for doing what browncoats do the best: hold the line.

I say there is 100% chance of a live action sequel of some sort.

If every browncoat on the net is committed and works to spread the word, even in some small way, there is no way we won't get a sequel.

Get out there and spread the word everyone!

__________________________________________
Holding the line since December '02!

"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."

Richmond, VA & surrounding area Firefly Fans:

http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/richmondbrowncoats/

http://www.richmondbrowncoats.org

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 1:12 AM

MRBEN

I think the odds will change over the 5 year period.

I believe that Universal have until Sept 2007 to take up the option to continue the film series with the existing actors' contracts. There seems to have been a spate of new licensed products recently, not least from QMx, which I am hoping is a sign that there are attempting to a) make some more money and b) test the waters.

I think that this is a very hopeful situation, even if it's straight-to-DVD. I think that we _have_ proved that as a fanbase we're willing to put our money where our mouths are, and thus at least 1 more film would be worthwhile.

If Universal fail to take up the option, I think the chances of it being with the original cast are greatly reduced. But then - you never really know for sure.

mrben

"Carpe Aptenodytes"
http://www.jedimoose.org

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 1:20 AM

MRT

Quote:
Originally posted by Adamwankenobi:
I'm 100% sure it will, as the second batch of Serenity comics are coming out next year.

OK - please help me here... where do I get the comics from? I have the one-off 'those left behind' but can't track down the mini-series that was released with the different covers... or am I being thick?

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 6:57 AM

SINGATE

I'd say about the same as successfully navigating an asteroid field. But we know what that particular captain said about odds.

_________________________________________________

We live on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 7:14 AM

LITTLEALBATROSS

Quote:
Originally posted by MrT:
Quote:
Originally posted by Adamwankenobi:
I'm 100% sure it will, as the second batch of Serenity comics are coming out next year.

OK - please help me here... where do I get the comics from? I have the one-off 'those left behind' but can't track down the mini-series that was released with the different covers... or am I being thick?

Not sure what you mean... but 'Those Left Behind' is the mini-series. The individual comics should be available at comic book stores (though some seem to be rarer than others judging by the prices I saw at the con I went to in August).

As for odds... I'm going to have to go with less than 5%. I really don't think anything live action with the original cast is going to happen. I'd be happy to be wrong but I kind of like how Serenity ended.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2006 7:19 AM

WINDSTRUCK

I am keeping the faith!

I'm somewhere between 90-100% for a Serenity sequel.
Did Joss not meet with Alan, Summer and Nathan? And he categorically denied the meeting and that it was not a serenity connected. They were meeting as friends - - - - - in Joss' house.

For the TV series though, I am 20-30%. It will be hard, very hard.

For a possible mini-series. 50-70%.

Comicbooks - 100%. Novels - 90%.

Animated Cartoon - 40-55%.

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