Serenity Box Office... Not Bad After all by Guildsister

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Serenity Box Office... Not Bad After all

POSTED BY: GUILDSISTER
UPDATED: Monday, November 7, 2005 11:04
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Sunday, November 6, 2005 9:17 AM

I was looking through box office numbers for recent Universal releases, comparing them on a per-theater, and a gross-to-cost basis. Viewed that way, "Serenity" actually did (and is doing) quite well for Universal compared to the rest of their recent releases.

Estimated numbers for this weekend are varying at different sources, but it appears "Serenity" has a world-wide gross of $35 million, with a production cost of $39 million. That's spitting distance from break-even. Universal's other films are not doing nearly that well. "Doom", in its 3rd weekend is virtually tied per-theater with "Serenity" in its 6th weekend. "Doom" has made $33 million world-wide with a $60 million budget--it's not going to hit that $60 million mark by a wide margin. It's falling too fast.

"Prime" could hit its production budget of $22 million but no one will ever call it a box office smash--opened in 3rd place with $6 million, currently at $13 million.

"Two For the Money" is an 'ouch' for Universal. Big brand-name stars, and with a $35 million budget it sits at $23 million world-wide gross. Five weeks in, "Two For the Money" is below "Serenity" in per theater income this weekend (Nov 4-6).

"Jarhead" is in its first weekend, $28 million and a very solid per-theater with a 2nd place opening. but with a production budget of $72 million it has to sustain a high level of performance to break-even. Next weekend will tell.

So, compared to the rest of Universal's current fare, "Serenity" has to be causing them some of the least consternation. And we knew perfectly well the DVDs are a dead-on certainty to be a hot seller--it's already #18 at Amazon with no ad push. A DVD costs about $2 to produce. Universal gets far more back per DVD than they do on each sold theater ticket. "Serenity" will make Universal a profit.

BTW, production budget costs do not include advertising costs for a film. The rule-of-thumb on a film is to figure the ad budget as equaling the production budget. Now, I'm fair certain they didn't spend $39 million advertising "Serenity". Or if they did, it wasn't anywhere I saw! OTOH, some of these other films that are doing so poorly did have some hefty advertising going on, which strains them even more to make their return on investment.

Guildsister

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 9:45 AM

VANCOUVER

Yeah, I've been noticing the same thing, and drawing the same conclusions. (Glad to know someone else is on the case!) I was just saying to my sister last night that Serenity is one of the least unprofitable films of the year. It took some time to explain to her what I meant, but she eventually got it, after I cited some of the same figures that you have. For all the ballyhoo of something like Kingdom of Heaven doing great on DVD, and probably some of these other box-office duds, they have a heck of a lot to make up for, too. Serenity is going to need $4million or so to make up the production budget--or maybe, by the time it's totally out of theatres and rep cinemas, only $3 million. It stands a better chance of turning a profit than Doom, or probably even Jarhead.

Vancouver

by the way, there was just an interesting study put out of Britain confirming what most of us had already suspected: that some categories of movies are earning more revenue on DVD than in the theatre, on a consistent basis. These are generally the ones that appeal to older and more intellectual viewers, and also those that appeal to women more than men. The study went on to say that so far, this fact didn't seem to be affecting/determining which movies got made, or whether they got made, which is the bad news for those of us hoping for DVD sales to get us our sequel. (Though we should always keep in mind the obvious sequels--Bourne Supremacy, Transporter 2, Underworld 2, etc--that clearly DID get made only because of the DVD sales and rentals.)

Myself, I think the ones that do well on DVD are the ones that appeal to people like me, who heard Book tell Mal that there is a special level of Hell reserved for people who talk in theatres, and didn't know it was a joke...

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 9:49 AM

HARSHCRITIC

Anyway, thanks for the info. I always wondered how much profit was made from DVDs. With the cost being $2 per dvd, the movie should do quite well. But, I will still buy multiple copies dor X-mas gifts. Still, good to know things aren't all bad.

I heard that the total production cost including advertisement was somewhere between $50 and 60 million. That leaves them needing to make about $15 million to get out of the red.

$15 mil divided by $15.50 average price/per DVD =
about 967,742 DVDs

They need to sell about a million copies to get out of the red. That isn't so bad.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 10:28 AM

DONCOAT

Double post deleted... read on:

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 10:28 AM

DONCOAT

Quote:
Originally posted by Guildsister:
BTW, production budget costs do not include advertising costs for a film. The rule-of-thumb on a film is to figure the ad budget as equaling the production budget. Now, I'm fair certain they didn't spend $39 million advertising "Serenity". Or if they did, it wasn't anywhere I saw! OTOH, some of these other films that are doing so poorly did have some hefty advertising going on, which strains them even more to make their return on investment.

That's for sure. You haven't been able to turn on the TV the last couple weeks without seeing ads for Jarhead. Not to mention that I've seen its trailer every single dang time I've seen Serenity. At least I didn't get sick of it in one viewing like I did with the Doom trailer, which I thereafter refused to watch. One good thing about being half blind is that you can avoid such things just by taking the glasses off...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ain't about you, Jayne. It's about what they need.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 3:15 PM

KELLYOFLUTHIEN

Thank you for posting this. I have been following the box office stats for Serenity and had come to the same conclusion, but was not aware that the cost of producing DVDs was so low, which is good news! I agree that Universal will definitely make a profit from Serenity, and it'll probably be one of its most profitable ventures from this year, seeing as everything else bombed. Thanks for the info!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I love my Captain :)

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 5:00 PM

GORBA916

O Serenity, O Serenity! Where art thou Firefly?
Deny thy networks and refuse thy box-office totals;
Or, if thou wilt not, be but sworn my love,
And I'll no longer be a Capulet....

Here's to hoping Sci-Fi, Spike TV or Universal brings back this jewel of a show!

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Monday, November 7, 2005 5:53 AM

CYBERSNARK

Quote:
Originally posted by DonCoat:
One good thing about being half blind is that you can avoid such things just by taking the glasses off...

Learned that from Giles (& his obsessive glasses-cleaning), didn't ya?

-----
We applied the cortical electrodes but were unable to get a neural reaction from either patient.

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Monday, November 7, 2005 6:03 AM

CHRISISALL

Good vibes; positive thread!
Thanks for the info, Guildsister!

Chrisisall

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Monday, November 7, 2005 9:19 AM

SNOWFLY

I like the sound of this. If the box office was "not bad," the DVD sales ought to be phenomenal.

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Monday, November 7, 2005 10:24 AM

EMBERS

yeah, I'ven been thinking for some time that we'd get green lit for a sequel within two years
(when 'Serenity' as actually gone into the black and Joss is free again)
but it could very well be in production by then,
if the DVD sales are even close to Firefly's sales
(and why wouldn't they be?)
it will only grow in popularity....

I'm thinking that by the time 'Serenity' appears on TV
Universal will be thinking that they need to get a sequel made

this fandom will only continue growing...

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse,
and have you joined the Browncoats yet?
http://browncoats.serenitymovie.com/serenity/?fuseaction=tools.invlink
&u=embers&linkID=36

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Monday, November 7, 2005 10:31 AM

STILLWATERS

We might not have to wait that long. I've read on a couple of different threads that Tim M. will probably direct the sequel, He's evidently already say he wanted too, and Joss trusts him. So let hope for a very Serenity Christmas.

Shiny, Let's be bad guys

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Monday, November 7, 2005 11:04 AM

CUB

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
if the DVD sales are even close to Firefly's sales(and why wouldn't they be?)

Because Serenity was not as good as Firefly. It didn't have the same charm, the sense of family, or the magical "something" that made the TV show so special. Everyone I've talked to who's recently been exposed to both has said the same thing. Heck, the TV box set is still the No. 10 best selling DVD on Amazon.com as I type this, and that's $40 a pop.

I don't doubt that the DVD of the movie will sell crazy-good, but I hope Universal gets the message that this is a tale that's best told in serial format on TV, and that the only reason that it didn't succeed as such the first time around was because of the Fox screwjob. I mean, just look at the current poll results on the main page here.

---

"If wishes were horses, we'd all be eatin' steak."

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