2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Friday, February 27, 2026 09:20
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VIEWED: 24504
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Monday, February 16, 2026 8:36 AM

so 2025 is over and Avatar did ok-ish but not enough for the studios to be excited about paying for more Avatar

Disney / 20th Century's Avatar: Fire and Ash grossed an estimated $9.4M internationally this weekend.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/2023077927810990236#m

Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-15/warner-bros-weighs-
reopening-sale-negotiations-with-paramount

ZOOTOPIA II | 1389.0M overseas | 1803.5M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32964-zootopia-ii-13890m-over
seas-18035m-worldwide/

Estimated Daily #BoxOffice Top 7
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3mew7f3rwlc2
s
1. #WutheringHeightsMovie - $14.40M
2. #GOATMovie - $11.80M
3. #Crime101 - $6.81M
4. #SendHelp - $4.60M
5. #SoloMio - $3.56M
6. #Zootopia2 - $1.90M
7. #AvatarFireAndAsh - $1.80M

Movie Comparison: Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) vs. Jurassic World (2015) vs. “Wuthering Heights” (2026)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Avatar-Fire-and-
Ash-(2025)/Jurassic-World/Wuthering-Heights-(2026)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Monday, February 16, 2026 3:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

You been paying attention at all to The Housemaid?

Nobody wants to see woke bullshit anymore, but put Sydney Sweeney in a decent movie that people actually want to see and look what happens.

It's just about done now, but in 60 days it's made $361 Million worldwide on a $35 Million budget.

There's no way I'm going back and tracking it like I did back in '23, but I think you'll be pretty hard-pressed to come up with a top 5 list of movies who made back more than 10x their BP like The Housemaid did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Housemaid-The-(2025)#tab=box-office

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Thursday, February 19, 2026 7:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Everybody rejected your woke bullshit. California made making movies so expensive that nobody can afford to make them anymore.

There used to be waiting lists to rent out studios in Hollywood. Now they have over 40% vacancy every day.

You destroyed Hollywood. Just like YOU destroyed your party.

Pat yourself on the back, retard.

Everyone hates you.

Have a nice day.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Affleck also pointed to tax rebates as a major driver of where movies are made. Other states and countries offer aggressive incentives, sometimes covering 30% to 40% of a budget.

Ben Affleck Says 'There's Some Truth' to Hollywood Dying, Noting a $25M Movie Must Make $100M To Break Even —It's 'Simple Math' and a Huge Risk

By Jeannine Mancini | February 18, 2026 10:45 AM

https://www.benzinga.com/news/topics/26/02/50690844/ben-affleck-says-t
heres-some-truth-to-hollywood-dying-noting-a-25m-movie-must-make-100m-to-break-even-its-simple-math-and-a-huge-risk

Ben Affleck has been in show business long enough to see it reinvent itself more than once. The box office boom years. The DVD cash machine. The superhero takeover. Now? A streaming-first economy where every decision runs through a spreadsheet.

While appearing on the "All the Smoke" podcast in January, Affleck was asked what he says to people who claim Hollywood is dead because it's too expensive to make movies here. His answer was direct. "I mean, sadly there's some truth to that," Affleck told the podcast.

But before he got into the math, he talked about the model.

A Different Kind of Production Company

Affleck and close friend and fellow actor Matt Damon launched Artists Equity in 2022. The goal wasn't just to make movies. It was to rethink how the people making them get paid.

During the podcast, Affleck explained that their Netflix partnership marks the first time they've implemented a performance-based compensation structure designed specifically for the streaming era. In the old theatrical model, box office numbers were public. Success translated into residuals. You could see what a film made, and compensation flowed accordingly.

Streaming blurred that transparency.

With Artists Equity, Affleck said they worked to create a system where cast and crew — more than 1,000 people on a production — participate in upside tied to performance metrics. If the movie hits certain viewership benchmarks within its first 90 days, bonuses are triggered. Not just for stars. For the crew.

It's a shift. And it reflects a bigger truth: the economics of the business have changed, and compensation structures have to evolve with them.

The Simple Math Problem

Then Affleck got into the part that made executives nod and creators wince.

He said it's "very difficult to make a movie for less than $25 million." That's production alone. Marketing can cost roughly the same.

So now a studio has about $50 million invested.

From there, theaters generally return about 50% of box office grosses. So if a film grosses $100 million, the studio sees about $50 million back.

"You got a $25 million movie, you got to gross $100 million just in simple math," Affleck said.

That's before accounting for the fact that audiences now have more options than ever. Streaming. Social media. Gaming. Endless content competing for attention.

When margins are that tight, studios get cautious. And when studios get cautious, they default to recognizable IP, sequels, and superheroes.

It's not personal. It's risk management.

Incentives Change Geography

Affleck also pointed to tax rebates as a major driver of where movies are made. Other states and countries offer aggressive incentives, sometimes covering 30% to 40% of a budget.

When that kind of rebate is on the table, it becomes hard to justify shooting in higher-cost locations.

That shift doesn't just change filming locations. It reshapes jobs, infrastructure, and the economics of entire regions built around production.

Some Truth in the Frustration

Affleck didn't say Hollywood is finished. But he didn't dismiss the frustration either.

If mid-budget original films struggle to clear the financial bar required for theatrical release, fewer of them get made. If audiences wait for streaming, theatrical risk increases. If risk increases, studios narrow their bets. It's a feedback loop.

And like Affleck laid out, when the math gets that tight, everything starts to feel like a calculated gamble. The pressure to justify every dollar isn't unique to Hollywood — it's the same tension early-stage startups face when they're asking investors to believe before the proof is obvious.

Not every young company becomes the next Amazon or Google. Most ideas, whether films or startups, land somewhere in the middle. But without someone willing to fund the uncertain stage, nothing new scales. That's the real through line: risk doesn't disappear, it just decides who's willing to carry it.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 19, 2026 1:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

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Thursday, February 19, 2026 4:30 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You been paying attention at all to The Housemaid?

Nobody wants to see woke bullshit anymore, but put Sydney Sweeney in a decent movie that people actually want to see and look what happens.

It's just about done now, but in 60 days it's made $361 Million worldwide on a $35 Million budget.

There's no way I'm going back and tracking it like I did back in '23, but I think you'll be pretty hard-pressed to come up with a top 5 list of movies who made back more than 10x their BP like The Housemaid did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Housemaid-The-(2025)#tab=box-office

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Housewives who want to kill their husbands hire The Housemaid.

Book 1: The Housemaid (spoilers and ending explained) | Freida McFadden

https://phdiva.blog/book-reviews-with-spoilers-available/how-did-the-h
ousemaid-end-spoilers-freida-mcfadden/

A movie trilogy for housewives who married a rich Trumptard and fantasize about killing him for the life insurance payout:

Book 2: What is The Housemaid’s Secret about?

Our beautiful and unhinged ex-con Millie is back and she has some surprises in store for us. She is now seeing a handsome lawyer named Brock who has no clue about her past. Definitely not the murders or the ten years in prison.

https://phdiva.blog/book-reviews-with-spoilers-available/how-did-the-h
ousemaids-secret-end-spoilers-freida-mcfadden/

Book 3: What is The Housemaid is Watching about?

Our favorite murder-y housemaid Millie returns as the lead again in the third book. This book is set about fifteen years after the events of The Housemaid’s Secret.

“Millie has always been a somewhat dim character. She has a knack for stumbling into the middle of toxic relationships and becoming a pawn, before flipping the tables and suddenly being a beautiful — if moronic — angel of vengeance. We love that for her!”

https://phdiva.blog/book-reviews-with-spoilers-available/how-did-the-h
ousemaid-is-watching-end-spoilers-freida-mcfadden/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 19, 2026 9:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

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Thursday, February 19, 2026 9:51 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You been paying attention at all to The Housemaid?

Nobody wants to see woke bullshit anymore, but put Sydney Sweeney in a decent movie that people actually want to see and look what happens.

It's just about done now, but in 60 days it's made $361 Million worldwide on a $35 Million budget.

There's no way I'm going back and tracking it like I did back in '23, but I think you'll be pretty hard-pressed to come up with a top 5 list of movies who made back more than 10x their BP like The Housemaid did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Housemaid-The-(2025)#tab=box-office

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

The whole plot is woke -- about killing an adulterous husband. In The Housemaid, the Husband is murdered after he reveals what a scumbag he is. Complications ensue because the Husband also commits adultery with the Housemaid, but then the two women eventually agree to murder him, together, rather than live with him. You CANNOT get more WOKE than that! It is a sly way to insinuate that Trump needs to be murdered, since he has committed adultery in every marriage. Imagine a prostitute and a wife agreeing to kill Trump. That is the movie.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 6:10 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

I asked google: Why did each successive Knives Out movie sell fewer tickets than the previous movie?

The successive Knives Out movies sold fewer tickets primarily because of a shift in release strategy from a traditional wide theatrical release to limited, short-term theatrical runs designed to drive streaming subscriptions, rather than a decline in quality or popularity after Netflix purchased the rights to the sequels for over $400 million.

Here is a breakdown of why each film's ticket sales declined:

• Knives Out (2019) - Wide Release: The original film was a traditional theatrical release by Lionsgate, screening in thousands of theaters for months and generating over $311 million worldwide against a $40 million budget.

• Glass Onion (2022) - Limited Release: Netflix purchased the rights to the sequels for over $400 million. They chose to release Glass Onion for only one week in roughly 700 theaters—a fraction of the 3,000+ theaters used for the first film. While it performed well per theater, its limited, one-week run severely capped its total box office to $13,280,000.

• Wake Up Dead Man (2025) - Streaming Focus: The third installment continued the trend of prioritized streaming, further cementing the franchise as a "service-first" product rather than a "theater-first" event. Total ticket sales were only $1,600,000. https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Knives-Out#tab=summary

Key Factors in Declining Ticket Sales:

• The "Netflix" Effect: Netflix's strategy prioritizes driving subscriptions over theatrical revenue. They purposefully limited the theatrical window to force viewers to the streaming platform.

• Shortened Theatrical Window: Exhibitors (theater chains) wanted longer, wider runs, but Netflix restricted Glass Onion to a single week, leaving "tens of millions on the table," according to analysts.

• Audience Habit Shift: The pandemic, combined with the quick, high-profile streaming debut of the sequels, conditioned audiences to wait to watch the movies at home rather than rushing to a theater.

Despite lower ticket sales, Glass Onion was a massive success for Netflix, with high viewer engagement on the streaming platform.

https://www.google.com/search?q=why+did+each+successive+Knives+Out+mov
ie+sell+fewer+tickets+than+the+previous+movie

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 3:26 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

Despite lower ticket sales, Glass Onion was a massive success for Netflix, with high viewer engagement on the streaming platform.

In a normal tech business (like Netflix), as you gain more subscribers, your profit margins increase exponentially because your fixed costs stay relatively stable. Once Netflix pays $20 million to produce an original movie, that cost is fixed. Whether 1 million or 100 million people watch it, the cost doesn’t change. The profit margin expands.

By Joel Gouveia | Feb 25, 2026

https://joelgouveia.substack.com/p/the-death-of-spotify-why-streaming

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 5:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You been paying attention at all to The Housemaid?

Nobody wants to see woke bullshit anymore, but put Sydney Sweeney in a decent movie that people actually want to see and look what happens.

It's just about done now, but in 60 days it's made $361 Million worldwide on a $35 Million budget.

There's no way I'm going back and tracking it like I did back in '23, but I think you'll be pretty hard-pressed to come up with a top 5 list of movies who made back more than 10x their BP like The Housemaid did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Housemaid-The-(2025)#tab=box-office

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.
The whole plot is woke -- about killing an adulterous husband. In The Housemaid, the Husband is murdered after he reveals what a scumbag he is. Complications ensue because the Husband also commits adultery with the Housemaid, but then the two women eventually agree to murder him, together, rather than live with him. You CANNOT get more WOKE than that! It is a sly way to insinuate that Trump needs to be murdered, since he has committed adultery in every marriage. Imagine a prostitute and a wife agreeing to kill Trump. That is the movie.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

That's not what woke is.

You are an idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 10:04 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

That's not what woke is.

You are an idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Isn't the non-woke Trumptard wife supposed to accept her husband's adultery? Melania did! The Women's Movement and the MeToo Movement were all about kicking the shit out of men who have depraved sex lives. (Don't forget the Epstein Files!) Since when is cinematically killing your cheating, lying husband NOT woke?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 10:04 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

NEW reason to NOT see movies in the theater:

AMC's New Seat-Pricing Plan Is Totally Wrong

Even Nicole Kidman is struggling to find the magic in the AMC theater experience at this point.

By Josh Rosenberg Published: Feb 26, 2026 1:34 PM EST

https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a70516325/amc-theaters-me
mber-seat-price-plan-controversy

Three years ago, AMC theaters announced one of the company’s worst ideas of all time. The proposed system, called “Sightline pricing,” raised ticket prices only for the best seats in the auditorium—the ones right in the center of the movie theater. Naturally, the idea was met with the sheer derision that it deserved. Everyone hated it, and AMC cancelled the idea within a few months.

"What if movie theaters worked like airplanes?" was certainly a pitch that would eventually find a way to seat the lower-income theatergoers by the bathroom, or worse. But I only called Sightline pricing one of AMC’s worst ideas of all time because the theater chain just came up with a new plan so terrible that Nicole Kidman couldn't even tell us where the magic of the AMC theater experience went now.

According to AMC CEO Adam Aron, the best seats in the house won’t even be available for purchase anymore unless you’re an A-List or Stubs Premiere member. Forget higher fees—that child’s play. Now, if you don’t cough up $19.99-27.99 (per month!) to become an AMC member, you won’t even have access to those seats at all.

... What?!

Maybe I’m misunderstanding what AMC is suggesting here. Surely, the company wouldn’t seek to punish the average movie-goer by making non-members feel like second-class citizens, right? There’s no way the theater chain that allows members to skip the popcorn line like TSA PreCheck would make everyone else who can’t afford the monthly fees feel even worse for simply wanting to grab their kids some snacks before Bluey: The Movie starts, would they? Let’s hear exactly how Aron described it.

“AMC will introduce preferred premier seating, where we will block and reserve the best seats in the house in our theaters to be accessed first by our A-List and our Stubs Premiere members—that’s the two VIP tiers within our Stubs program—at no added charge,” the AMC CEO said during an earning’s call on Tuesday. “At AMC, we will assure that the best seats in our auditoriums are [held]—at first, anyway—for our best customers. We think it will be a considerable consumer benefit that our most frequent guests will notice and greatly appreciate, further cementing their brand loyalty to AMC.”

No, sadly I heard him right. It’s just as terrible as it sounds.

Nicole Kidman | AMC Theatres | That's Magic

We Make Movies Worse

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, February 26, 2026 10:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You been paying attention at all to The Housemaid?

Nobody wants to see woke bullshit anymore, but put Sydney Sweeney in a decent movie that people actually want to see and look what happens.

It's just about done now, but in 60 days it's made $361 Million worldwide on a $35 Million budget.

There's no way I'm going back and tracking it like I did back in '23, but I think you'll be pretty hard-pressed to come up with a top 5 list of movies who made back more than 10x their BP like The Housemaid did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Housemaid-The-(2025)#tab=box-office

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.
The whole plot is woke -- about killing an adulterous husband. In The Housemaid, the Husband is murdered after he reveals what a scumbag he is. Complications ensue because the Husband also commits adultery with the Housemaid, but then the two women eventually agree to murder him, together, rather than live with him. You CANNOT get more WOKE than that! It is a sly way to insinuate that Trump needs to be murdered, since he has committed adultery in every marriage. Imagine a prostitute and a wife agreeing to kill Trump. That is the movie.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

That's not what woke is.

You are an idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Nice. Don't be a dick.

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Friday, February 27, 2026 9:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

That's not what woke is.

You are an idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

Be Evil. Be a dick.

Key Aspect of "Woke"
Modern Usage (Negative/Pejorative): Used by critics to describe what they perceive as performative activism, extreme political correctness, or "cancel culture".

In the movie Housemaid, the housemaid and the housewife kill the philandering husband. The movie could have the housemaid and housewife make picket signs with rude messages about the husband, but killing hubby is a more cinematic version of "cancel culture". What is cancel culture? Cancel culture refers to the widespread, community-driven practice of withdrawing support (or "canceling") for public figures, companies, or individuals after they have done or said something deemed objectionable, offensive, or immoral. Hollywood loves the counterintuitive idea of vigilante justice (killing hubby) to protest hubby's immoral acts, making the movie simultaneously woke and entertaining to women who have bad husbands.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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