The "A Quiet Place: Day One" exists thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

The "A Quiet Place: Day One" exists thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, June 30, 2024 14:04
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Friday, June 28, 2024 2:00 PM

I'm guessing this one makes its money back, but only because the budget was $67 Million.

This thing failing to reach $167.5 Million when the first one hit $335 Million and the sequel pulled in $290 Million would be a huge fall for the franchise.

The premise looks like shit. The entire cast is new. They had to resort to photoshopping in a white guy on a last-minute edition of the movie poster because otherwise it just looked like a BLM protest in NYC.

It's got a 67% verified audience score after previews, which didn't save them much from the 66% All Audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. There is no cinemascore rating yet.

If word of mouth gets out how bad it is, this might actually fail... But again, with that low-for-2024 budget, a lot would have to go wrong for it to happen.

Right now it's got $6.8 Million in previews, which is even more than the $6.6 Million that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes got, and even more than Bad Boys: Ride or Die got. This makes it the 5th highest preview night in the US in 2024.

I'm calling it right now that this movie will break the 2024 Preview Night / Worldwide Gross rule. There's no way this movie is making more money than Planet of the Apes or Bad Boys does.

Bruce doesn't have predictions out yet, but other outfits are claiming $50-$55 Million in the US this weekend. IF that's anywhere approaching a legit number, it could have $80 to $100 Million worldwide and be most of the way there.

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Friday, June 28, 2024 3:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

The premise looks like shit. The entire cast is new. They had to resort to photoshopping in a white guy on a last-minute edition of the movie poster because otherwise it just looked like a BLM protest in NYC.

Usually they only change the movie posters to hide the black people in China.

It's 2024 now, baby.

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Friday, June 28, 2024 8:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Bruce is predicting $69 Million on opening weekend.

No flippin' way.

These people get one reasonably well performing Bad Boys movie and the first Disney movie that was profitable since Q1 of 2023 and all of the sudden they forget how awful 2023 has been otherwise.

It's summer. It's a PG-13 rated horror flick and the kids didn't have to go to school in the morning. I doubt very much that preview number means what you think it means in relation to other preview numbers so far this year.

You're also comparing this to two horror movies from last year, unarguably a MUCH better year for Hollywood, as well as the first two movies which had a cast of characters people cared about.

And if your preview comparison raises your prediction from $57 Million to $69 Million, that also means that your final US Box office number of $169 Million is raised to $226 Million.

Not. A. Chance.

I doubt it even sees $169 Million in the US.

Inside Out 2 has very little to worry about in its 3rd weekend, and it doesn't need to make $77 Million with only a -24% drop to take 1st place either.

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Saturday, June 29, 2024 11:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Well... It did better than I thought it would on Friday. Have to come right out and admit that first.

Including the $6.8 Million it made on Thursday, the projections from the studio are now showing $22.5 Million on Friday. (That's an actual Friday number of $15.7 Million).

For comparison, Bad Boys: Ride or Die made $5.875 Million on Thursday which was part of the $21.5 Million opening Friday number. (An actual Friday number of 15.625 Million).

So even though it made more than I thought it would, it made WAY LESS than Bruce expected it to last night. And the preview to Friday ratio was quite a bit worse than Ride or Die's was, as I expected it would be. Also, Friday would be one of the two big days for the weekend for a movie like this. Horror movies make way for Children's fare on Sunday, typically. My guess is that it makes around $18-$20 Million today and $13-$15 Million on Sunday.

It will come nowhere close to Bruce's $69 Million, but it would appear that the other outfits claiming $50-$55 Million probably weren't that far off. Including the previews, it probably makes the high end of that prediction or even possibly a few million more.

RT audience scores are now 72% verified audience/71% all audience. Cinemascore gives it a B+.

I don't think this movie is actually going to have much competition in the future looking at the current release schedule. If it were a normal summer, it would probably be buried next weekend. But the only real new release next weekend is Despicable Me 4, and that's going to be IO2's problem, not Day One's problem.

The schedule will work very much in Day One's favor, and it probably ends up with a decent profit for Paramount. Paramount needs every penny it can manage right now.

On a $67 Million budget, it should have no problems bringing in well over 100% of the budget worldwide with a $50+ Million US opening, which in and of itself is a guarantee this movie does more than break even.

I still stand by my prediction that it doesn't out-gross Bad Boys or Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Currently, Bad Boys sits at just a hair below $300 Million, and Apes sits at $386 Million. Bad Boys is still making money as we speak, but I don't believe it needs any further buffer to beat Day One. I doubt very much that Day One will reach $300 Million globally before its run is over.

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Saturday, June 29, 2024 3:20 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Woke? Why did Emily go for this crap? Very disappointing, I had higher expectations for her.

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Saturday, June 29, 2024 9:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Woke? Why did Emily go for this crap? Very disappointing, I had higher expectations for her.

No. Emily has nothing to do with this.

This is a prequel set in New York City. They probably could have made a horror movie with any generic monsters, but with the Quiet Place name attached they get to push the series in a "new direction" for "modern audiences" and get fans of the originals to show up for something only superficially related to the original material.

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Sunday, June 30, 2024 2:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce doesn't have predictions out yet, but other outfits are claiming $50-$55 Million in the US this weekend. IF that's anywhere approaching a legit number, it could have $80 to $100 Million worldwide and be most of the way there.

$53,000,000 projected, including preview night.

$98,500,000 projected worldwide.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
So even though it made more than I thought it would, it made WAY LESS than Bruce expected it to last night. And the preview to Friday ratio was quite a bit worse than Ride or Die's was, as I expected it would be. Also, Friday would be one of the two big days for the weekend for a movie like this. Horror movies make way for Children's fare on Sunday, typically. My guess is that it makes around $18-$20 Million today and $13-$15 Million on Sunday.

It will come nowhere close to Bruce's $69 Million, but it would appear that the other outfits claiming $50-$55 Million probably weren't that far off. Including the previews, it probably makes the high end of that prediction or even possibly a few million more.

$16.95 Million on Saturday, $13.55 Million on Sunday.

Really, not a great showing on Saturday considering the genre and demographic. With that Friday and Sunday number, it really should have eclipsed $55 Million on the high end of the non-Bruce predictions.

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6ixStringJack	06.30 14:04