Not really 'news', but North Korea to end peace pact w/ South Korea. ( Not PN ) by AURaptor

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Not really 'news', but North Korea to end peace pact w/ South Korea. ( Not PN )

POSTED BY: AURAPTOR
UPDATED: Friday, March 8, 2013 16:49
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Thursday, March 7, 2013 6:03 PM

America loves a winner!

This should be fun.

Quote:

North Korea has announced that it is cancelling a hotline and a nonaggression pact with South Korea while reiterated past threats in anger over a UN Security Council vote to impose more sanctions on the country for its third nuclear test.
A statement the North issued on Friday said the country would retaliate with "crushing strikes" if enemies intruded into its territory.

http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-end-peace-pacts-south-024904082.html

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Friday, March 8, 2013 4:45 AM

HERO

An end to the ceasefire would be a diaster for everyone.

Assuming a purely conventional conflict the North Koreans would enjoy a tremendous advantage in the first days and weeks.

The ground assault over the border would make use of infiltration, tunnels, and highly trained shock troops. The initial success in the west would be overcome by the South's in-depth defenses that range from the border all the way back to the capital. In fact it may be the most heavily defended and fortified region in the world. These defenses are not only manned by South Korea's best troops but are backstopped by an understrength US mechanized division (really not much more then a brigade since the Clinton drawdowns). US firepower and ability to rapidly manuever would likely prevent an all out breakthrough.

The central region is extremely rough terrain. North Korea would likely overrun the border and achieve a complete breakthrough in the region, but the usefullness would be limited because terrain would work against them moving quickly enough to turn the flank of the western defenses. This time would allow US and South Korean airmobile forces to act first as a delay to the North's advance and then as a backstop to the deploying reserves from further south.

The eastern coastal lowlands are the North's best opportunity. This region combines poor defensive terrain, isolation from the rest of the country, and limited troops for the South against a large number of the North's best armor and mechanized forces. Likely the border defenders will be quickly isolated and destroyed allowing for a rapid advance down the coastal road. This could be effectively combined with North Korean airborne and Marines taking key chokepoints and airfields ahead of the main advance. With few reserve units able to quickly reach the area this front would be a race between the North to reach one of the central cross-peninsula highways (allowing a flanking movement through the lowlands south of the capital and likely resulting in the isolation and collapse of the central and western fronts) and the few South Korean units able to try and act as speed bumps to that advance. This would result in the desperate need to deploy US Marines or incoming US Airborne troops. If is unlikely to be the Marines as the US will want to build up Marine units for a flanking landing further up the coast to isolate and destroy the NK advance once it can be bogged down. US Airborne units will be rushed into action with tragic consequences since they lack the ability to move quickly once on the ground and they lack the heavy weopons for a stand up fight against the NK armor. Likely they will fail to block the NK advance, but many will survive to pull into the mountains to harass the NK supply lines.

Overall the chance for North Korean victory is real, but diminishes quickly over time. If the South can hold out for a few weeks until the US has enough troops to commit at least one Marine, one heavy, and maybe the 101st Air Assault then they can easily land in strength on the east coast cutting off the NK advance and then follow up with a rapid advance on the border. After that we will likely leapfrog the Korean defenses with a direct attack on the region around the port of Wonson. From there the US could attack in multiple directions including further up the coast, back towards the border, or across country to Pyongyang (which is feasable because of both favorable terrain and the NK highway network). Should the campaign reach that point...the North would be completely unable to stop them.

Thats all the conventional conflict. If at any point the North uses nukes then the game changes. Their best military use would be either at the outset against Japan and Hawaii (it is unlikely that the US west coast is in real danger). This would disrupt or delay the deployment of US reinforcements and airpower. The best political use is as an ace-in-the-hole to deter any invasion of NK territory. Another good political use would be a single weapon against Japan or South Korea with the promise of more. This would play into North Korea's entire nuclear decades long strategic nuclear theory which is predicated on the idea the the US, particularly a weak liberal president, would be unwilling to trade a US city for South Korea.

Would President Obama risk Seattle to save Seoul?

H

Hero...must be right on all of this. ALL of the rest of us are wrong. Chrisisall, 2012

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Friday, March 8, 2013 8:59 AM

JONGSSTRAW

And the good news is that a new war might lead to a new M.A.S.H. series.

Hawkeye..... Nathan Fillion
Trapper..... Adam Baldwin
Radar....... Mark Sheppard
Hot Lips.... Christina Hendricks
Frank Burns..Sean Maher
Klinger......Alan Tudyk
Col. Potter..Ron Glass
Nurse Dish...Morena Baccarin

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Friday, March 8, 2013 3:36 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
And the good news is that a new war might lead to a new M.A.S.H. series.

Hawkeye..... Nathan Fillion
Trapper..... Adam Baldwin
Radar....... Mark Sheppard
Hot Lips.... Christina Hendricks
Frank Burns..Sean Maher
Klinger......Alan Tudyk
Col. Potter..Ron Glass
Nurse Dish...Morena Baccarin

OMG...that's gorram genius!!

Though I do have issue w/ Sean as Major Frank Burns. I like Sean. I'd hate to have him referred to as 'Ferret Face'.

And as for Ron, why not Father Mulcahy ? Meh...he'd probably object to being type cast as yet another Christian religious figure. Hmmm...

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, March 8, 2013 4:49 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Back to the topic for a moment... hearing less than comforting news on the matter of N. Korea.

Could be empty bluster. Hope so.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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