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Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled

POSTED BY: AURAPTOR
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 2, 2013 06:21
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Friday, March 29, 2013 10:20 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



In a lengthy article this week, The Economist magazine said if climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, then climate sensitivity - the way climate reacts to changes in carbon-dioxide levels - would be on negative watch but not yet downgraded.

Another paper published by leading climate scientist James Hansen, the head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, says the lower than expected temperature rise between 2000 and the present could be explained by increased emissions from burning coal.

For Hansen the pause is a fact, but it's good news that probably won't last.

International Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri recently told The Weekend Australian the hiatus would have to last 30 to 40 years "at least" to break the long-term warming trend.

But the fact that global surface temperatures have not followed the expected global warming pattern is now widely accepted.

Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models and if they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years.

"The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

"If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change," he says.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/twenty-year-hiatus-in-ri
sing-temperatures-has-climate-scientists-puzzled/story-e6frg6z6-1226609140980



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Friday, March 29, 2013 11:57 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Coal smog may be good for putting the brakes on global warming, but it's obviously not ideal. Maybe we'll devise something less polluting than coal to work along the same lines in the future.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, March 30, 2013 2:59 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Like what, a CLEAN smog?



Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Saturday, March 30, 2013 3:17 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Well, as always, Rap picks and chooses, and I gusess is saying because everything isn't falling into place exactly like predicted, that makes the whole global warming thing a bunch of bunk? Hmmm...

From the same article:
Quote:

"But it does not mean global warming is a delusion."

The fact is temperatures between 2000 and 2010 are still almost 1C above their level in the first decade of the 20th century.

"The mismatch might mean that for some unexplained reason there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-2010.

"Or it might mean that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period."

The magazine explores a range of possible explanations including higher emissions of sulphur dioxide, the little understood impact of clouds and the circulation of heat into the deep ocean.

But it also points to an increasing body of research that suggests it may be that climate is responding to higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before.

.....

On face value, Hansen agrees the slowdown in global temperature rises can be seen as "good news".

But he is not ready to recalculate the Faustian bargain that weighs the future cost to humanity of continued carbon dioxide emissions.

Hansen argues that the impact of human carbon dioxide emissions has been masked by the sharp increase in coal use, primarily in China and India.

Increased particulate and nitrogen pollution has worked in the opposite direction of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Another paper published in Geophysical Research Letters on research from the University of Colorado Boulder found small volcanoes, not more coal power stations in China, were responsible for the slowdown in global warming.

But this did not mean that climate change was not a problem.

"Emissions from volcanic gases go up and down, helping to cool or heat the planet, while greenhouse gases from human activity just continue to go up," author Ryan Neely says.

Hansen's bottom line is that increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a "doubling down" of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes.

"The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be," he says.




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Saturday, March 30, 2013 3:26 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Meanwhile, the north polar cap, ice shields and glaciers are melting much faster that predicted.

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Saturday, March 30, 2013 5:16 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Poor little rappy. He quotes a newspaper (The Australian) that quotes a climate science denying organization ("The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) is a think tank in the United Kingdom, whose stated aims are to challenge 'extremely damaging and harmful policies' envisaged by governments to mitigate anthropogenic global warming." WIKI), and an article in a non-science magazine (The Economist) and think he's got the science references covered. What a confused little puppet.

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Saturday, March 30, 2013 5:30 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Isn't Rappy one of the folks who always insist that a few years of data doesn't prove anything, and that a few years of warming or cooling is weather, not climate?


He puts his own emphasis on the portions of the article that agree with his claims, says that the claims are "widely accepted", but never say whether or not they're peer reviewed. And "widely accepted" by who? All those scientists Rappy can never find nor cite who say that climate change it a hoax?



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero

"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012

Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"

Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."

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Monday, April 1, 2013 6:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I brought up the icemelt not to counter one anomaly with another, but as the probable cause of the temperature anomaly. In a well-stirred glass, as long as there is just a little ice in water, the water temperature will be be near zero. Of course, the oceans aren't well-stirred, but ice melting DOES keep temperatures lower.

So, for various reasons the ice is melting faster than before (it's slushy, unlike previous year's hard ice; the jet streams are looping up higher to the north pole and further towards the equator, bringing hot air to the poles and carrying away more cold air, etc.) and the faster-melting ice is cooling the rest of the earth. As I've said before: just wait till the ice fully melts.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2013 6:21 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


"just wait till the ice fully melts." I'd rather not, if you don't mind. I'm hoping I'll be gone before it gets that bad, tho' the way things are going...

As to Rap, eh, no surprise there. Just like every time he can hunt up any reference to any Muslim doing anything violent, his obsession will keep him searching high and low for anything he can dig up that MIGHT just possibly negate global warming. Keeps him out of trouble, I guess, but it's amusing...


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