REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

fears of becoming the next Ukraine

POSTED BY: THGRRI
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 12, 2022 19:31
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Saturday, May 2, 2015 10:24 AM

THGRRI


In Kazakhstan, fears of becoming the next Ukraine

"About a quarter of Kazakhstan’s citizens are ethnic Russians, and many have the same grievances as their compatriots in Ukraine. Some say they feel pressured to speak Kazakh, whose use has spread in recent years. Few Russians are represented in state leadership positions.

Some ethnic Russians are already calling on the Kremlin to send preemptive, peaceful aid, even as they voice their effusive support for Nazarbayev, a former Soviet apparatchik. The Kazakh leader, meanwhile, has promised to crack down on anything that smacks of ethnic division."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/in-kazakhstan-fears-of-beco
ming-the-next-ukraine/2015/05/01/10f7e73c-e878-11e4-8581-633c536add4b_story.html


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Saturday, May 2, 2015 11:43 AM

THGRRI


Is Russia about to collapse? Could we be so lucky? Yep, with putin leading them it's probable.

Vladimir Putin seems to be taking a page from his historical mentor Stalin as he is using Victory Day to whip up nationalist fervor as he attempts to rewrite history and paint a false picture that Russia is still fighting fascism, but this time it’s Europe and the U.S. who are out to subjugate Mother Russia.

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Wednesday, January 5, 2022 2:25 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Kazakhstan: Protesters 'seize airport' as state of emergency declared throughout oil-rich Kazakhstan | World News

https://news.sky.com/story/kazakhstan-state-of-emergency-declared-in-c
apital-nur-sultan-as-protests-intensify-in-almaty-and-other-cities-12509441

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Wednesday, January 5, 2022 6:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Fuel price cap ends, triggering riots

Kazakh Security Council chief (and former President) is sacked, ministers resign
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resi
gns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05
/

CTSO sends peacekeepers
https://www.chron.com/news/article/Reports-Protesters-in-Kazakhstan-st
orm-city-16750464.php


A detailed explanation of Kazakh history and current politics




Kazakh faces





-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Wednesday, January 5, 2022 8:19 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Okay, so having listened to two videos on the topic, and knowing that there was something of an power struggle between the current President (Tokayev) and the former President (Nazarbayev, former President and - until today- head of the Security Council and chief of the military)...

and having read that Putin spoke with each one separately not even a week ago...

I have an offbeat idea to suggest.

First of all, what I read is that the # of rioters is rather small. Supposedly, only 46 people stormed the airport. However, they do seem to be organized and weaponized since they were able to "storm" and burn a number of key points.

Also, apparently, Nazarbayev, who (until today) was head of the military, did not call out the troops to quell the riots. Why not?

So, what if this WASN'T just a protest over fuel prices? What if this was an attempt by Nazarbayev to retake power?

More interestingly, what if Tokayev triggered this protest ON PURPOSE by dropping the price caps, and used the riots as an excuse to a)sack Nazarbayev b) round up the trouble-makers and c) put CTSO boots on the ground?

Furthermore, what if PUTIN told him to do that, hoping to engineer another Belarus which would put a closer ally firmly in power? That would be kind of a judo-move, wouldn't it? I can imagine Putin telling Tokayev, "Drop the price caps. Nazarbayev can't resist the bait. He'll set up rioters, then you can sack him for not doing his security job, round up partisans, and we'll support you with peacekeepers". It would be a high-risk move, but it might work.

Also, Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund is something like 30pct of GDP. They could have subsidized fuel prices for the foreseeable future. Dropping price caps seems an entirely arbitrary move. Not necessitated by finances.

ETA: one last puzzle piece. When a family/ political dynasty is in power as long as Nazarbayev has been, he likely has his fingers deep in the massive Kazakh energy sector and a lot of wealth is probably flowing his way. Displacing him may interrupt a lot of corruption.

Anyway, sheer speculation on my part. Possibly saying 2+2= 22. Interesting to see what happens next!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Wednesday, January 5, 2022 8:23 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


THUGR, can you edit your title to be less obscure? How about just retitling it "Kazakhstan 2022" or something like?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Thursday, January 6, 2022 1:05 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


A collection of short videos of the riots and looting in Kazakhstan.

https://www.rt.com/russia/545259-kazakh-fuel-riots-videos/

Interestingly, there don't seem to be a lot of people involved. No mass protests. Seems as if smallish groups of highly mobile people doing as much as damage as possible and moving on very quickly.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 1:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Looks like a probably failed regime change operation, abetted by an internal power struggle. More about that later.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 1:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.




Quote:

Sitrep Kazakhstan: President Tokayev addressed the nation
January 07, 2022

Kazakhstan is undergoing an anti-terrorist operation

An anti-terrorist operation is underway in our country. The police, National Guard and army are all carrying out an extensive and coordinated work to establish law and order in accordance with the Constitution.

Yesterday, the situation in the cities of Almaty, Aktobe and the Almaty region stabilized. The introduction of the state of emergency regime is yielding results. Constitutional legality is being restored throughout the country.

But terrorists still damage state and private property and use weapons against citizens.

I have given orders to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill without warning.

Better not be out on the streets.

Quote:

There have been calls from abroad for the sides to negotiate for peaceful solutions. What nonsense! How can you negotiate with criminals and murderers?

We had to deal with armed and trained bandits, both local and foreign. It is with bandits and terrorists. So they have to be eliminated. And this will be done in the near future.

The forces of law and order are morally and technically prepared to carry out this task.

As you know, based on the main provisions of the CSTO charter documents, Kazakhstan has asked the heads of participating states to introduce a joint peacekeeping contingent to assist in the establishment of constitutional order.

This contingent arrived in our country for a short period of time to provide cover and support functions.

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Prime Minister of Armenia, which chairs the CSTO, and to the Presidents of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

A special word of thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He responded very quickly and, most importantly, in a comradely and warm manner to my appeal.

An interesting point was made that within a few short hours of the request, somewhere between 3,000-5,000 paratroopers were on their way. Their bags must have been packed and ready to go, with weapons, ammo, provisions, equipment and everything. They were expecting this.

Quote:

I also thank the President of the People’s Republic of China, the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkey, and the leaders of the United Nations and other international organizations for their words of support.

The tragic events in our country shine a new light on democracy and human rights.

Democracy is not permissiveness and, moreover, not incitement, including in the blogosphere, to unlawful actions.

In my speech on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Independence, I said that the law and order are the main guarantee of the well-being of our country.

And not only in Kazakhstan, but in all civilized countries.

This does not mean an attack on civil liberties and human rights. On the contrary, as shown by the tragedy of Almaty and other cities in Kazakhstan, it is the lack of respect for the law, permissiveness, and anarchy that lead to violations of human rights.

In Almaty, not only administrative buildings, but also the personal property of civilians suffered at the hands of terrorist bandits. Not to mention the health and lives of hundreds of civilians and military personnel.

I express my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.

Let me remind you that at my suggestion, the Law on Peaceful Assemblies of Citizens was passed in May 2020.

This law is, in fact, a major step forward in the promotion of democracy in our country, because it provides for the not permissive, but notificatory nature of rallies and assemblies. Moreover, in central districts of all cities of the country.

But some so-called “human rights activists” and “activists” put themselves above the law and think that they have the right to gather wherever they want and say whatever they want.

Because of the irresponsible actions of these do-gooder activists, police officers are distracted from their basic law enforcement activities. They are often subjected to violence and abuse.

Because of these “activists,” the Internet is “bogged down,” with the result that the interests of millions of citizens and domestic businesses suffer. In other words, enormous damage is done to domestic economic, social, and political stability.

The so-called “free” mass media and “overseas” figures, who are far from the indigenous interests of our multinational people, play an abetting and, in fact, inciting role in the violations of law and order.

It would be no exaggeration to say that all these irresponsible demagogues have become accomplices in unleashing the tragedy in Kazakhstan. And we will respond strictly to all acts of legal vandalism.

Control of social media. But how can Dems object? They've been pushing censorship for over a couple of years now, wanting to silence dissenting voices in the guise of ending "disinformation" and "false narratives".

Quote:

There is no doubt that we will overcome this black hole in our history quickly enough. The main thing is to prevent such events from recurring in the future.

I have set up a special inter-agency group to search for and apprehend bandits and terrorists.

I promise our citizens that all of these individuals will be held criminally accountable to the highest standards.

I ask all the people of Kazakhstan to be careful and vigilant. Report any suspicious activities of suspicious persons to law enforcement agencies and hotlines.

There will be a “debriefing” in connection with the actions of law enforcement agencies and the army and their inter-agency coordination.

Expect a purge of the security forces.

Didn't Dems put out the call to report on family and friends who may have been "radicalized" (ie become Trump support) just a few short months ago?

Quote:

It also turned out that there is a shortage of special forces, special means and equipment. We will address these issues as a matter of urgency.

It is critical to understand why the state “slept through” the clandestine preparation of terrorist attacks by sleeper cells of militants. Twenty thousand bandits attacked Almaty alone.

Their actions showed the presence of a clear plan of attack on military, administrative and social objects practically in all oblasts, coordinated actions, high combat readiness and brutal cruelty.

In addition to the militants, there were specialists trained in ideological sabotage, adept at using disinformation or “fakes” and capable of manipulating people’s attitudes.

It seems that a single command center was in charge of their training and guidance. The KNB and the Prosecutor General’s Office have begun to deal with this.

There did seem to be a fair bit of planning and perhaps even treason by security forces, since the insurrectionists knew where the armories were and managed to break into quite a few of them with no resistance.

Quote:

Now for the good.

As the situation has stabilized, I have decided to switch on Internet communications in some regions of the country for certain time intervals. This decision, I am sure, will have a positive impact on the livelihood of our citizens.

But I warn you that free access to the Internet does not mean free publication of fabrications, slander, insults and inflammatory appeals.

If such materials appear, we will take measures to detect and punish their authors.

The counter-terrorist operation continues. The fighters have not laid down their arms, they continue to commit crimes or prepare for them. The fight against them must be seen through to the end. Whoever does not surrender will be eliminated.

There is a lot of work ahead to learn the lessons of the tragedy we have lived through. Including from the socio-economic point of view.

The Government will have to take specific decisions, about which I will speak at the Majilis on 11 January.

Right now I would like to tell you, my compatriots, that I am proud of you.

I would like to thank those citizens of Kazakhstan who have remained calm these days and worked to ensure stability and public order.

Despite provocations and destructive calls, you have remained faithful to the law and to your country.

I thank the students of large cities, members of labor collectives, industrial and agricultural workers for their civic consciousness.

I thank the residents of the regions who ensured a peaceful protest.

All demands, expressed in a peaceful form, were heard. As a result of the dialogue, a compromise was reached and solutions to acute socio-economic problems were developed.

Therefore, in regions where the situation remains stable, we will gradually lift the state of emergency.

I am absolutely certain that our sacred motherland, Kazakhstan, will be a strong state on the world map, our economy will develop dynamically, and the social status of our citizens will improve. To achieve these goals, I will propose a plan for reforms and concrete measures to implement them.

I wish strong health and well-being to all!





https://thesaker.is/sitrep-kazakhstan-president-tokayev-addressed-the-
nation
/

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 2:08 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


To complete the picture so far

Quote:

Sitrep: Summary of Briefing from Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov, commander of the CSTO grouping in Kazakhstan.

Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov, commander of the CSTO grouping in Kazakhstan.

Briefing on Kazakhstan. 07.01.2022

1. Citizens of Alma-Ata are urged to stay indoors and observe the state of emergency until the remaining militants are shot. Given the ongoing shooting, this is in the interests of the citizens themselves. Authorities warn that trained guerrilla snipers are operating in the city. More than 3,000 people have been arrested and dozens killed. There are still corpses on the streets which have not been removed.

2. Tokayev announced that the operation in Alma-Ata will continue until all militants have been exterminated. Concerning the question whether the protesters or not, everything is simple here – a group of unidentified people has been carrying on organized firing squad with the police, guards and the army of Kazakhstan, who have been suffering losses in killed and wounded for three days now. Accordingly, the main task is the physical destruction of the enemy who has occupied part of the center of the city. Some of the militants, who are lucky, will simply be captured, followed by a conviction. The rest will be destroyed.

3. Kots writes that in Tokayev’s appeal the question of complicity of some high-ranked law-enforcers linked to Nazarbayev (who is still keeping silence) to what happened will be raised, which actually legitimizes the version that the main mechanism of what happened was not gas prices but the struggle of Tokayev and Nazarbayev’s groups for power. We are waiting for Tokayev’s official interpretation of what happened. Nazarbayev remains silent (is he still alive? Is he sick? Is he arrested? Is he isolated?)

4. The CSTO grouping in Kazakhstan is commanded by Lieutenant General Serdyukov. All Russian units sent to Kazakhstan have practical combat experience. The Kirghiz have also joined today and will send 150 people under the command of the deputy head of the Defense Ministry of Kirghizia. More than 70 military transport aircraft were involved in the operation to redeploy the contingent of Russian and Belorussian Armed Forces. It was a good test for the ATA to move a substantial contingent over long distances. I am sure it will come in handy in the future.

5. Regarding the operations of the grouping. The Russian military is already at the airport of Alma-Ata and controls it in conjunction with the local military. The Kazakh military also holds the TV tower. On the roads they finally started systematically putting up roadblocks. Within 1-2 days they need to deploy a full network. Gradually, the process of localization of major protest areas and suppression of armed resistance by Kazakh military forces will be implemented. The sane protesters in the cities, where there were no pogroms, are likely to be simply negotiated with.

Source: Telegram ColonelCassad Channel (Boris Rozhin)



https://thesaker.is/sitrep-briefing-from-colonel-general-andrei-serdyu
kov-commander-of-the-csto-grouping-in-kazakhstan
/


Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 2:27 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Dbl

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Saturday, January 8, 2022 3:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



So, deconstructing what's happened so far and what it might mean;

There did seem to be a power struggle between the President (Tokayev) and former President (Nazarbayev).

Nazarbayev was very close to Tony Blair (yes, THAT Tony Blair who got us into Iraq with phony WMD "intelligence') and I suspect that there were several interests involved in supporting a coup by Nazarbayev

1) Western oil and gas companies are exploiting Kazakh oil and gas fields in western region, not Russian. Chevron is the major player. There was a demand by some of the insurgents in the western region that it split off from the main nation. It would then be dominated by Chevron and other western interests

2) Nazarbayev was close to Blair. There was probably a fair bit of $$ that was offered if he managed to gain control of the nation and it's resources.

3) There was a discussion of how LITTLE money it takes to overthrow a government. Ten thousand dollars in bribes to the right security officials is often enough.

4) A successful "regime change" operation would weaken Putin's hand considerably in upcoming negotiations with Biden*

However, the Biden* administration seems genuinely willing to negotiate with Putin over EU security. So either this was conducted with

The usual duplicity (say nice things while preparing an offensive) using Biden* as the out-of-the-loop mouthpiece, or

By a rogue faction of neocons in State Dept/CIA, similar to the problems Trump was having controlling foreign policy, or

The problem is much further afield, in Britain, desperate to botch talks between Biden* and Putin

5) Britain is desperately seeking nice, controllable source of oil.and gas.


Since this seems to have had the opposite result, Russia's AND the CSTO"s hand is considerably strengthened. This may mean that Russia has declared that not only will there be no further expansion of NATO, no more regime change/ color revolution schemes will be allowed either.

CHINA has now seen the utility of the CSTO, bc Kazakhstan has a border with Xinjiang, wants to join, and may try to unify the much larger SCO (a political grouping encompassing all of Eurasia) with the CSTO (a form of military alliance among former Soviet states). This would expand the scope and role of the CSTO by an order of magnitude.

China has also recently announced that it wants to create a military force with real combat experience. Training exercises only get you so far. (In joint drills with Russia, altho technically proficient, Russia has identified a weakness at China's mid-command level.)

So far, China has been reluctant to put boots on the ground in foreign nations, but it's military is deficient in experience. In China's statement of support for Tokayev ( mmm... tokay, a favorite dessert wine!) it actually seemed rather itchy to get militarily involved in Kazakhstan. Perhaps I'm misreading their statement, tho.

Anyway, if this was promoted by some faction in the west, whatever was intended seems to have come out the opposite. Time will tell if genuine reform and improvement in Kazakhstan's living standard will defuse any further attempts at regime change. As I posted b4, when someone has been in power as long as Nazarbayev, I'm sure he and his cronies have got their fingers in a lot of $$. How many oligarchs flee to Britain with their ill-gotten gains will be an indicator of whether the elite structure is being disrupted. Or not Also,one possibility is that oil and gas industry might be nationalized.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 2:59 PM

THG


Putin dreams of a Russian ‘sphere of influence.’ Kazakhstan’s protesters are the latest to push back.

Although Putin clings to Soviet nostalgia — and to a self-drawn map of Moscow’s “sphere of influence” that covers much of the former empire — the countries surrounding Russia have other ideas. The latest example is sweeping anti-government protests in Kazakhstan that have rattled a political system entrenched for three decades and brought in Russian-led forces to try to keep a lid on the unrest.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-dreams-of-a-russian-sphere-
of-influence-kazakhstan-s-protesters-are-the-latest-to-push-back/ar-AASzCdL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531





T


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 3:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Continuing to call armed insurrectionists "protestors" just show how stupid you are.

"When Americans are in your house it can be difficult to stay alive, and not to be robbed or raped"

as Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Iraq have demonstrated.

Say, WTF are we doing there anyway, if not trying to establish a worldwide "sphere of influence" of our own?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 3:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Ex-Kazakh security chief arrested on suspicion of 'high treason'
Recently sacked head of the national security agency is among detainees
Ex-Kazakh security chief arrested on suspicion of 'high treason'
FILE PHOTO. © Sputnik / Vladislav Vodnev

Karim Masimov, the former chief of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee (KNB) was arrested earlier this week along with other unidentified suspects as part of a probe into “high treason,” the security agency said on Saturday....

Earlier, a former aide to Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, said the crisis had been prompted by a number of high-ranking officials, including security officers, whom he accused of “betraying” the nation.

The aide, Ermukhamet Ertysbayev, who also once served as the culture minister, described the violent riots as a “coup attempt” and an “armed insurrection” that would have been impossible without there having been “treason by top government and law enforcement officials.” He did not name any individual in particular, however.



https://www.rt.com/russia/545442-kazakhstan-security-chief-arrested-tr
eason
/

Oh, I bet there will be people singing like birds!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 3:25 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

After 900 nuclear tests on our land, US wants to ethnically cleanse us’: meet the most bombed nation in the world

Native-American nation's land was turned into a nuclear test site. Now, they suffer from illnesses



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Saturday, January 8, 2022 5:24 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Four thousand miles away in London, though, the UK assets of the Kazakhstani ruling class are sitting quietly. The Central Asian state’s elite owns at least £530.4m of luxury property in London and the southeast, according to data released in a recent report by Chatham House. Some £330m of that luxury property is owned by the extended Nazarbayev family.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/mysteries-of-the-failed-rebellio
n-in-kazakhstan.html


Prolly the most cogent comment: With the fall of Afghanistan, the USA has no military bases in central Asia.


Meanwhile, USA embassy staff (CIA assets/ dual employees) are leaving like rats leaving a sinking ship.

----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


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Wednesday, October 12, 2022 7:16 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
In Kazakhstan, fears of becoming the next Ukraine

"About a quarter of Kazakhstan’s citizens are ethnic Russians, and many have the same grievances as their compatriots in Ukraine. Some say they feel pressured to speak Kazakh, whose use has spread in recent years. Few Russians are represented in state leadership positions.

Some ethnic Russians are already calling on the Kremlin to send preemptive, peaceful aid, even as they voice their effusive support for Nazarbayev, a former Soviet apparatchik. The Kazakh leader, meanwhile, has promised to crack down on anything that smacks of ethnic division."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/in-kazakhstan-fears-of-beco
ming-the-next-ukraine/2015/05/01/10f7e73c-e878-11e4-8581-633c536add4b_story.html






T


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Wednesday, October 12, 2022 7:31 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


A country 'Borat' Sacha Baron Cohen made a mockery of

They still launch space tourists from there in Kazakhstan on a Soyuz

On tumblr they uploaded pics of rotting Russian Soviet Space Shuttles?




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