Elections; 2024 by THG

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Chaos is a hallmark of adult ADHD.
Someone should give Trump ritalin.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 2:55 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Everyone who uses the word "Nazi" should be required to define it in their post.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 3:05 PM

They're getting particularly nasty as of late, aren't they?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 7:40 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
They're getting particularly nasty as of late, aren't they?

Sorry to tell you this, but Trump is sorry:

Trump Pantomimes Oral Sex at Rally

Trump Needs Help

Last night he simulated oral sex in public.

November 2, 2024, 2:02 PM ET

I do not know how to put this gently or tastefully, so I will factually describe what happened last night in Milwaukee: A former president of the United States held a rally, during which he used a microphone holder on his podium to pantomime the act of giving fellatio.

I could have put it differently. I might have said that “a cognitively impaired man, who has long been showing signs of serious emotional instability and has a history of sexism and racism, engaged in crude behavior in front of a large audience.” But that wouldn’t capture an important reality:

This deeply impaired man is tied in the race to become the next president and could be holding the codes to the U.S. nuclear arsenal in less than three months.

I don’t know if this bizarre display will move votes away from Donald Trump. Nothing seems to dent the loyalty of his base. Trump voters are resolute in their determination to minimize his ghastly antics, or even to scrub them from their minds. (As one commenter said on social media today, Trump’s new mantra might be: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and blow somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”)

Besides, it’s always difficult to single out one terrible moment at a Trump rally when there are so many from which to choose. Last night, for example, he insisted that he won Wisconsin twice. (He didn’t.) He also took a veiled racist shot at the Milwaukee Bucks player Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is Black.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-pantomimes-
oral-sex-at-rally/680511/

Loyal Trumptards will refuse to believe Trump did what he did or else they will approve.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 8:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
They're getting particularly nasty as of late, aren't they?
Sorry to tell you this, but Trump is sorry:

Trump Pantomimes Oral Sex at Rally

Trump Needs Help

Last night he simulated oral sex in public.

November 2, 2024, 2:02 PM ET

I do not know how to put this gently or tastefully, so I will factually describe what happened last night in Milwaukee: A former president of the United States held a rally, during which he used a microphone holder on his podium to pantomime the act of giving fellatio.

I could have put it differently. I might have said that “a cognitively impaired man, who has long been showing signs of serious emotional instability and has a history of sexism and racism, engaged in crude behavior in front of a large audience.” But that wouldn’t capture an important reality:

This deeply impaired man is tied in the race to become the next president and could be holding the codes to the U.S. nuclear arsenal in less than three months.

I don’t know if this bizarre display will move votes away from Donald Trump. Nothing seems to dent the loyalty of his base. Trump voters are resolute in their determination to minimize his ghastly antics, or even to scrub them from their minds. (As one commenter said on social media today, Trump’s new mantra might be: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and blow somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”)

Besides, it’s always difficult to single out one terrible moment at a Trump rally when there are so many from which to choose. Last night, for example, he insisted that he won Wisconsin twice. (He didn’t.) He also took a veiled racist shot at the Milwaukee Bucks player Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is Black.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-pantomimes-
oral-sex-at-rally/680511/

Loyal Trumptards will refuse to believe Trump did what he did or else they will approve.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Thank you for supplying us with another great example of hilarious propaganda made for idiots, by idiots.

To answer your question, no Trump-tard. The made up story you just pulled out of your ass isn't going to move any votes away from Trump. The only people who have ever read your shit articles are brainfucked Blue No Matter Who slaves for life.

Enjoy your last weekend in power.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 9:51 PM

Oh, the cope!

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/1
1/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Leapfrogs! LEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAPFRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOGSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!

SPOILER ALERT: Harris is so far underwater in freakin' Iowa that FiveThirtyEight doesn't even bother calculating an aggregate, probably because nobody is even bothering to poll Iowa.

What was your polling methodology? 100% Democrat voting, college "educated", single women between 35 and 45 who are 50lbs or more overweight with unnaturally colored hair?

Emerson College just gave Trump +9 in Iowa 2 days ago. Stop smoking crack.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/iowa/

And just for comparison's sake, Emerson only gave Trump +1 on Halloween of 2020, and Trump won Iowa in 2020 by +8.2.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/iowa/
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

Grow up and accept your loss and stop riling up the idiots on the Left right before their world comes crashing down all around them.
--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Saturday, November 2, 2024 11:47 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Oh, the cope!

Trump has a plan to bring back rotting teeth:

Working for Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr will be in charge of causing tooth decay.

On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water. Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders, and thyroid disease. President @realDonaldTrump and First Lady @MELANIATRUMP want to Make America Healthy Again.

3:36 PM · Nov 2, 2024
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1852812012478398923

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 12:10 AM

What does that have to do with Lefty cope and media lies?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 5:54 AM

THG

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Everyone who uses the word "Nazi" should be required to define it in their post.

Why, Trump the Nazi has been defined by Trump himself. We've witnessed it in his actions too often to count. If he wore a Nazi armband you would still ask for proof.

T

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 6:33 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Everyone who uses the word "Nazi" should be required to define it in their post.

Why, Trump the Nazi has been defined by Trump himself. We've witnessed it in his actions too often to count. If he wore a Nazi armband you would still ask for proof.

The fact that you still believe these lies and never once took the time to watch all of the incidents you've been lied to about yourself so you could get everything in context is just embarassing for you.

Wake up Ted. Even Jake Tapper had enough of this bullshit. I wonder if he'll have a job at CNN for much longer.

CNN's Tapper live fact-checks Harris on Trump's quote on protecting women: 'Just quote him accurately'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnns-tapper-live-fact-checks-h
arris-on-trumps-quote-on-protecting-women-just-quote-him-accurately/ar-AA1tkb1G

Quote:
t a rally in Phoenix, Arizona on Thursday, Harris asserted Trump will do what he wants regarding abortion restrictions and policing women’s bodies.

"Now in America, one in three women lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban, many with no exceptions, even for rape and incest, which is immoral. And Donald Trump’s not done. Did everyone hear what he just said yesterday? That he will do what he wants, quote, and here‘s where I‘m going to quote ‘whether the women like it or not,’" Harris said.

She continued, "We must vote because this is the thing. You know, there‘s a saying that you got to listen to people when they tell you who you are, and this is not the first time he has told us who he is. He does not believe women should have the agency and authority to make decisions about their own bodies."

...

After playing the clip from Harris’ rally, Tapper corrected the vice president, adding she left out context.

After his panel on "The Lead" snickered at his fact-check, Tapper followed, "I mean, but you take my point. He’s saying I‘m gonna protect them, whether that women want me to protect them."

Democratic strategist Karen Finney remarked, "Some would say that’s misogynistic—"

"It‘s not as she presented it," Tapper said.

"Look, ultimately, I think we have to be careful in these last days. We did this in 2016," Finney said. "He’s going to say something horrible, ridiculous—"

"So just quote it accurately." Tapper interrupted.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:00 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
What does that have to do with Lefty cope and media lies?

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

When I am around Trumptards, I don't receive complex signals from them. What I do get back is static, like I am in contact with a flock of pigeons. There is a signal coming from them, but it doesn't have much of a plot, doesn't go anywhere in particular. Pigeons don't have a civilization, they have bird-brain behavior around the man-made world, nesting on buildings, eating what crumbs humans leave, and pooping on cars parked under trees. Trumptards have pigeon behavior, mostly pooping on an incomprehensible man-made world. They need Trump to make life meaningful, give the pigeons a vast purpose beyond eating, pooping and hatching eggs.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:00 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

It’s Not the Fascism That Should Bother Us
The debate over Trump's style of politics obscures his profound indecency.

By Francis Fukuyama | Nov 01, 2024

https://www.persuasion.community/p/its-not-the-fascism-that-should-bot
her

The publication of new interviews with Donald Trump’s longstanding chief of staff John Kelly have been in the news since last week, and the Harris campaign has picked up on Kelly’s use of the word “fascist” to describe his former boss. This has reignited a longstanding debate over whether Trump and his MAGA movement represent the threat of genuine fascism in the United States were he to be re-elected.

This debate misses the point in several respects. Most Americans don’t have a clear definition of “fascist” in their minds, except to know that it means something very bad. But they also know that it’s been an epithet thrown around a lot, especially at Republican candidates. Indeed, as one Republican campaign ad shows, virtually every one of their presidential candidates over recent decades has been described as a fascist by the Democrats. The term “authoritarian” would be a much more accurate description of Trump’s inclinations, but that term is even less clear in the minds of voters and doesn’t have the heavy negative connotations of the comparison to Hitler or Mussolini.

What people should have focused on were other parts of Kelly’s interviews. The former general reiterated his previous claim that the former president didn’t want to visit the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018, asking “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers,” and called the 1800 Marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood “suckers” for getting killed. Visiting the grave of Kelly’s own son, killed in Afghanistan, Trump said “I don’t get it. What was in it for him?” He refused to be photographed with grievously wounded military amputees because that “wasn’t a good look for him.” This attack on veterans who gave their limbs and often lives for their country started, of course, with his 2016 attack on John McCain, and his assertion that McCain wasn’t a hero, because “heroes don’t get captured.”

From Ronald Reagan onwards, contempt for public servants has been part of the Republican repertoire. But Reagan always distinguished the military from other parts of the public sector, and honored veterans as the best America had to offer. I do not believe that the fact Trump got away with his criticisms of McCain means that Americans on the right no longer respect military service, much as they may distrust the institutional military for standing up to Trump. How many times have you heard someone stop a soldier in an airport and thank them for their service? I don’t think that Trump himself believes that his supporters share his contempt for veterans or self-sacrifice. When he was asked about the “suckers and losers” comment as reported in Jeffrey Goldberg’s 2020 Atlantic article, Trump denied that he ever said that, and went on to attack Goldberg as a promoter of “fake news.”

Rather than calling Trump a fascist, I would focus on Kelly’s account of Trump the draft-dodger who wouldn’t, when push came to shove, stand up and serve his country. He attacks wounded and imprisoned soldiers out of a barely disguised feeling of inadequacy, having suggested that he made sacrifices as well by building hotels and avoiding getting sexually transmitted diseases. Those few swing voters still sitting on the fence need to see him as one of the most selfish individuals ever to enter American politics, one of the country’s true suckers and losers.

Francis Fukuyama is Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He writes the “Frankly Fukuyama” column, carried forward from American Purpose, at Persuasion.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 1:16 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

"In the next 4 weeks, we will be coming out with a plan to replace Obamacare."
Trump has promised for 9 years that he will have a plan in 4 weeks.

Start at 3 minutes and 30 seconds

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 3:33 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I think this "late deciders surge" is just a planted narrative to explain attempted ballot- stuffing. Problem is, nobody believes it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 3:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think this "late deciders surge" is just a planted narrative to explain attempted ballot- stuffing. Problem is, nobody believes it.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

We already had them try to shut down a building four hours early where they were handing out mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania in a more rural area that will vote hard for Trump when there were hundreds of people in line. They've already been sued for that and had to extend the mail-in ballot requests one more day.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 3:42 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Michael Moore wrote this in 2016.

Quote:
I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump and they don't necessarily agree with him. They're not racist or redneck, they're actually pretty decent people and so after talking to a number of them I wanted to write this.

Donald Trump came to the Detroit Economic Club and stood there in front of Ford Motor executives and said "if you close these factories as you're planning to do in Detroit and build them in Mexico, I'm going to put a 35% tariff on those cars when you send them back and nobody's going to buy them." It was an amazing thing to see. No politician, Republican or Democrat, had ever said anything like that to these executives, and it was music to the ears of people in Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - the "Brexit" states.

You live here in Ohio, you know what I'm talking about. Whether Trump means it or not, is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting, and that's why every beaten-down, nameless, forgotten working stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves Trump. He is the human Molotov Cocktail that they've been waiting for; the human hand grande that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them. And on November 8, although they lost their jobs, although they've been foreclose on by the bank, next came the divorce and now the wife and kids are gone, the car's been repoed, they haven't had a real vacation in years, they're stuck with the shitty Obamacare bronze plan where you can't even get a fucking percocet, they've essentially lost everything they had except one thing - the one thing that doesn't cost them a cent and is guaranteed to them by the American constitution: the right to vote.

They might be penniless, they might be homeless, they might be fucked over and fucked up it doesn't matter, because it's equalized on that day - a millionaire has the same number of votes as the person without a job: one. And there's more of the former middle class than there are in the millionaire class. So on November 8 the dispossessed will walk into the voting booth, be handed a ballot, close the curtain, and take that lever or felt pen or touchscreen and put a big fucking X in the box by the name of the man who has threatened to upend and overturn the very system that has ruined their lives: Donald J Trump.

They see that the elite who ruined their lives hate Trump. Corporate America hates Trump. Wall Street hates Trump. The career politicians hate Trump. The media hates Trump, after they loved him and created him, and now hate. Thank you media: the enemy of my enemy is who I'm voting for on November 8.

Yes, on November 8, you Joe Blow, Steve Blow, Bob Blow, Billy Blow, all the Blows get to go and blow up the whole goddamn system because it's your right. Trump's election is going to be the biggest fuck you ever recorded in human history and it will feel good.

And, what lesson did the DNC take from this?

Recommit to working Americans?

Er, no.

What they did was censorship. Identity politics. False accusations. Of Russian collusion. Of racism. Of sexism.
Disinformation. Media and internet control. Lockdowns. Mostly peaceful riots. Vaccine mandates. New, all new, proxy wars. Flooding the USA with illegal aliens. Inflation.

And we're supposed to be on board with that?

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 5:40 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Michael Moore wrote this in 2016.

Quote:
You live here in Ohio, you know what I'm talking about. Whether Trump means it or not, is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting, and that's why every beaten-down, nameless, forgotten working stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves Trump. He is the human Molotov Cocktail that they've been waiting for; the human hand grande that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them. And on November 8, although they lost their jobs, although they've been foreclose on by the bank, next came the divorce and now the wife and kids are gone, the car's been repoed, they haven't had a real vacation in years, they're stuck with the shitty Obamacare bronze plan where you can't even get a fucking percocet, they've essentially lost everything they had except one thing - the one thing that doesn't cost them a cent and is guaranteed to them by the American constitution: the right to vote. . . .

Yes, on November 8, you Joe Blow, Steve Blow, Bob Blow, Billy Blow, all the Blows get to go and blow up the whole goddamn system because it's your right. Trump's election is going to be the biggest fuck you ever recorded in human history and it will feel good.

And, what lesson did the DNC take from this?

Recommit to working Americans?

Er, no.

What they did was censorship. Identity politics. False accusations. Of Russian collusion. Of racism. Of sexism.
Disinformation. Media and internet control. Lockdowns. Mostly peaceful riots. Vaccine mandates. New, all new, proxy wars. Flooding the USA with illegal aliens. Inflation.

And we're supposed to be on board with that?

Alternatively, those bad things would not have happened if those Trump voters had not been bird-brains easily tricked by salesmen such as Trump. For today's example:

RFK Jr. says Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water. (RFK Jr says your child is stupid because their brain was poisoned by fluoride.) Assuming you are ignorant enough to believe that conman, Trump has a response, especially for you:

Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.” Whether Trump means it or not, is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting.
https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-trunt-fluoride-water-eaf74072a1
d037ba37475337b470dcb8

Trump is "the human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them". The system didn't steal their lives, the bird-brains threw life away. Each year a billion birds die from crashing into windows. Trump is promising to rid America of windows to spare the lives of bird-brain Americans. "Whether Trump means it or not, is kind of irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting." "Trump's election is going to be the biggest fuck you (directed at windows and plate-glass) ever recorded in human history and it will feel good."

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 5:53 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Trump Has Mastered Exploiting an American Obsession. It Could Cost Us All.

Trump’s Secret Weapon - America has long been obsessed with the concept of fairness. This election, it might cost us.

By Jill Filipovic | Nov 03, 2024

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/11/kamala-harris-donald-trump
-who-wins-fairness.html

The most devastating component of Trumpism has been to manipulate faith in our most basic systems of democracy. Trump, and especially the savvy people around him, surely understand that the 2020 election was not actually rigged, and that the 2024 election won’t be either. But they have exploited that American commitment to fair play — a commitment that extends to American systems. It is a long-held American value that we may not always like a particular outcome, but if the process and the system were both fair, then we accept it. And so, to undermine our faith in the vote, Trump and his allies have not complained about the outcome but about the fairness of the process (even without evidence). Today, scores of Trump supporters, some of them in positions to influence the election outcome, are convinced that there are widespread efforts underway to illegally throw the election to Harris. And Trump has made clear that if he loses, no matter the context or the facts on the ground, he will claim that the election was stolen.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 5:54 PM

On this day in History, November 3rd:

0000000000000000---2024----000---2020---000----2016-----
National000000000Trump +0.1000Biden +7.2000Clinton0 +1.8
--------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin0000000Harris +0.3000Biden +6.6000Clinton0 +5.5
Pennsylvania0000Trump0 +0.3000Biden +4.3000Clinton0 +2.8
Ohio000000000000Trump0 +7.1000Biden +0.2000Trump000 +1.6
Michigan00000000Harris +0.6000Biden +5.1000Clinton0 +5.0
Arizona000000000Trump0 +2.6000Biden +1.2000Trump00 +4.0
Nevada0000000000Trump0 +1.0000Biden +3.6000Trump 000+2.0
North Carolina00Trump0 +1.5000Biden +0.3000Trump 000+1.8
Georgia000000000Trump0 +2.3000Biden +0.4000Trump000 +4.6
Florida000000000Trump0 +8.0000Biden +1.4000Clinton0 +1.9

Here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2020...

National:000000 Trump +7.3
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +4.6
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +6.9
Michigan:000000 Trump +5.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.8
Nevada:00000000 Trump +4.6
North Carolina: Trump +1.8
Georgia:0000000 Trump +2.7
Florida:0000000 Trump +9.4

And here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2016...

National:000000 Trump +1.9
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +5.2
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +5.5
Michigan:000000 Trump +4.4
Arizona:0000000 Trump -1.4
Nevada:00000000 Trump -1.0
North Carolina: Trump +0.3
Georgia:0000000 Trump -2.3
Florida:0000000 Trump +8.9

Michigan Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan
/trump-vs-harris

Wisconsin Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsi
n/trump-vs-harris

4 years ago when Trump lost, Joe Biden was sitting on a +7.2 lead in national polling.

8 years ago when Hillary Clinton lost, she was sitting at +1.8 in national polling.

Today, 2 days before the 2024 election, Trump has a +0.1 lead over Harris in the national popular vote aggregate.

For more comparisons, I got the actual vote percentages in the battleground states to compare.

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

2020 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Biden +4.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Biden +1.2 (50.0% Biden / 48.8% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.1 (53.3% Trump / 45.2% Biden)
Michigan:000000 Biden +1.8 (50.6% Biden / 47.8% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Biden +2.4 (50.1% Biden / 47.7% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +1.3 (49.9% Trump / 48.6% Biden)
Georgia:0000000 Biden +0.2 (49.5% Biden / 49.3% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +3.3 (51.2% Biden / 47.9% Trump)

What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...

National:000000 Biden POLLS: +7.2 - ACTUAL: +4.4 = 2020 BIAS: -2.8
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden POLLS: +6.6 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: -6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Biden POLLS: +4.3 - ACTUAL: +1.2 = 2020 BIAS: -3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: -8.1 = 2020 BIAS: -7.9
Michigan:000000 Biden POLLS: +5.1 - ACTUAL: +1.8 = 2020 BIAS: -3.3
Arizona:0000000 Biden POLLS: +1.2 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: +0.9
Nevada:00000000 Biden POLLS: +3.6 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2020 BIAS: -1.2
North Carolina: Biden POLLS: +0.3 - ACTUAL: -1.3 = 2020 BIAS: -1.6
Georgia:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.4 - ACTUAL: +0.2 = 2020 BIAS: -0.2
Florida:0000000 Biden POLLS: +1.4 - ACTUAL: -3.3 = 2020 BIAS: -4.7

Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2020 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.1 - 2020 BIAS: -2.8 = Trump + 2.9
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.3 - 2020 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2020 BIAS: -3.1 = Trump +3.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.1 - 2020 BIAS: -7.9 = Trump +15.0
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -0.6 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +2.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.6 - 2020 BIAS: +0.9 = Trump +1.7
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2020 BIAS: -1.2 = Trump +2.2
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2020 BIAS: -1.6 = Trump +3.1
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.6 - 2020 BIAS: -0.2 = Trump +2.8
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.5 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +11.8

Joe Biden* never once fell below +4 points above Trump in the 2020 election. Harris has now been behind in the national popular vote aggregate for 8 days straight. She's had a pretty linear fall from her peak of +2.2 on October 3rd, down to -0.1 behind Trump today. If nothing changes, Harris would be the first Democrat in at least 3 election cycles that goes into election day losing the Popular vote in the polls.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 6:55 PM

Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016

2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...

(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.

A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)

National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +1.8 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: +0.3
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +5.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.8 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -3.5
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -1.6 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.6
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +5.0 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -4.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: +0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.0 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +4.4
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -1.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -1.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.3 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -2.1

Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.1 - 2016 BIAS: +0.3 = Harris +0.2
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -3.5 = Trump +3.8
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.1 - 2016 BIAS: -6.6 = Trump +13.7
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -0.8 - 2016 BIAS: -4.8 = Trump +4.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.6 - 2016 BIAS: +0.5 = Trump +2.1
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +4.4 = Harris +3.4
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -1.9 = Trump +3.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +5.2
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -2.1 = Trump +10.1

Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in 2020, but only by about half a point. In 2020 all polling was bad in favor of Joe Biden* on both the national and the state level save for a +0.9 bias toward Trump in Arizona. Against Clinton, both Arizona and Nevada polled Trump too high, with the +4.4 bias in favor of Trump in Nevada being the one true anomaly over the previous two election cycles. (The bias for Nevada in 2020 was +1.2 points in favor of Joe Biden*) Because of this Nevada bias anomaly in 2016, Harris does win Nevada with current polling data vs. the 2016 biases.

This is why I've called every BG state save for one or two. I'm more worried about Nevada not going to Trump than any other swing state out there. My other reservation would be shared between Arizona and Wisconsin, and I only throw Wisconsin in there because of things that JSF has said about his state Government.

There would have to be a MASSIVE change in the way all polling firms operated this year to swing the aggregate so far this way merely through changing up their collective polling methodologies.

Also, although I don't provide the data here, I have reason to believe that states like Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota are in play as well.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 7:56 PM

Haha...

Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".

Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?

I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:28 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Haha...

Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".

Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?

I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

It going to be fun for me if Trump loses. All the Trumptards will claim he won because they are sore losers. If Trump wins, it will be even more fun for me. I will eagerly wait for Biden to execute Trump: two in the head, one in the heart. Trumptards won't take that well. Will Trump survive until inauguration day? Or will his plane mysteriously explode in mid-air much like Putin had Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin killed? Maybe nothing happens, other than I get a huge tax cut thanks to President Trump wanting the same for himself. Money shall be my consolation prize.

Onboard grenade blast caused plane crash that killed Wagner boss, claims Putin

Russian president suggests Yevgeny Prigozhin was on drugs when he died in explosion on private jet from Moscow to St Petersburg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/hand-grenade-explosion-c
aused-plane-crash-that-killed-wagner-boss-says-putin

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:31 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Reasons I think Kamala will win PA (and get to 270 electoral votes while doing it).

The polls say that the swing states are essentially deadlocked. The party that turns out the most of its voters will win the battle. The democrats are ahead on the enthusiasm scale, evidenced by the far greater small donations they have received and the unprecedented number of volunteers.

Roe v. Wade will inspire huge numbers (especially women) to come out and vote. Every recent election that expanded state abortion rights has won big time, even in red states.

Huge numbers of early voters makes it easier for democratic workers to winnow down the lists of registered voters they need to contact to make sure they vote.

Taylor Swift and Beyonce have endorsed Kamala and encouraged young people who love them to register and vote. Young people are less likely to vote, but when they do, it’s usually for the more progressive candidates.

There are more women than men in PA and women have averaged about 60-40% for Democrats. And women are more likely to vote than men.

There are 600,000 people of Polish descent in PA, and Kamala was wise enough to warn them that their old country is where Putin will invade next if he wins Ukraine.

The association of black farmers (many former Republicans) have endorsed Kamala.

Trump fails every popularity poll. Even people who plan to vote for him feels he is repugnant. When some moderate Republicans see the choice on the ballot, many will just not be able to check the name of the convicted felon and women assaulter.

Trump has not even tried to expand his base. His rallies are designed to appeal only to those people already on board. This base was not large enough to elect him in 2020, and Kamala seems to be a more formidable challenge than Biden was.

Since Trump rode down the golden escalator cheered on by a crowd that he paid to be there 9 years ago, 36 million Americans have turned 18 and are eligible to vote. The great majority of young people are more progressive, and care about the climate issue which the Democrats own. On the other hand, since then, 18 million Americans have died, and older people tend to be more conservative (hence, Florida has recently become a red state).

More than 100 motorcyclists in Philadelphia (mostly black males) spent this weekend visiting areas outside that city where low voter turnout is the norm. They stop at bars and restaurants and give a little speech describing why everyone should register and vote for Kamala.

Over 3 million Americans have student loans, many of which have been forgiven by the Biden-Harris administration. Every one of these people should be voting Democratic, especially since the Republicans have fought against loan forgiveness.

Trump has been showing signs of dementia at his rallies, and his age is becoming as issue that he himself was broadcasting as dangerous when Biden was his likely challenger.

(I believe in under-promising and over-delivering, just as Kamala does,) When both Trump and Kamala were in Texas with only 10 days until the election, Trump was either wasting money in a red state or he was worried that Cruz might be vulnerable, and Kamala was there (along with Beyonce and Willie Nelson) for the same reason.

On Friday, October 25, Trump flew to Michigan to have a rally which was streamed by PBS. He was 3 hours late, and many attendees had long since departed. His words were watched by 47,000 PBS followers. On the same day, Kamala gave a speech in Texas attended by 22,000, and PBS streamed it as well, but to an audience of 2.5 million, or more than 50 times as many people as those who tuned into Trump.

Democrats are clearly winning the ground game in PA with so many volunteers. The New York Times reported that 24,000 registered voters were contacted in one time period over which only 3000 Republicans were.

Several busloads of students from the University of Virginia and the State of Washington arrived in PA to volunteer (reported to me by a long-time county-level Democratic worker and supervisor who said she had never seen the huge numbers of volunteers that have come on board this year).

https://andrewtobias.com/why-kamala-will-win-pennsylvania/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:54 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Haha...

Michael Bloomberg just wrote up an article "Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris".

Could you imagine actually dealing with or even knowing somebody who gives one single shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris?

I have pretty high doubts that even Ted or Second give a shit why Michael Bloomberg is voting for Kamala Harris.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
It going to be fun for me if Trump loses. All the Trumptards will claim he won because they are sore losers. If Trump wins, it will be even more fun for me. I will eagerly wait for Biden to execute Trump: two in the head, one in the heart. Trumptards won't take that well. Will Trump survive until inauguration day? Or will his plane mysteriously explode in mid-air much like Putin had Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin killed? Maybe nothing happens, other than I get a huge tax cut thanks to President Trump wanting the same for himself. Money shall be my consolation prize.

Onboard grenade blast caused plane crash that killed Wagner boss, claims Putin

Russian president suggests Yevgeny Prigozhin was on drugs when he died in explosion on private jet from Moscow to St Petersburg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/hand-grenade-explosion-c
aused-plane-crash-that-killed-wagner-boss-says-putin

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Does everybody see the insanity of the so-called "good guys"?

You heard it right here, folks. Second YEARNS to live in an America where the Democratically elected President gets murdered in cold blood because they don't agree with his political beliefs. He's said as much dozens of times now.

But I'm the Nazi.

All existing polling data. ALL of it. Shows Trump winning EVERYTHING.

Let's see if this is a Facts election or a Feelings election.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 9:12 PM

https://www.newsweek.com/epa-fluoride-drinking-water-risks-childrens-i
q-1959434

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Hey SECOND ....

Quote:
EPA Ordered to Address Risks of Fluoride in Water Linked to Children's IQ
In August, the National Toxicology Program, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), released a report that stated "with moderate confidence" that there is a connection between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The report marks the first time a federal agency has determined such findings. It was not designed to evaluate the health effects of fluoride in drinking water alone.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 10:00 PM

Another good story ruined by an eye witness.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 10:34 PM

Wow. It looks like a Jewish guy just got shot outside of a synagogue by one of the Harris administrations illegal aliens. That comes hot off the heels of a 5 year old being raped by one of them.

Just another day in Kamala Harris' America.

America hates the Democrat Party.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:12 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

BREAKING: Donald Trump has announced if he wins, he will lift sanctions on Russia and Iran. This is why Putin was paying millions to Republican influencers. He’s bought control of Trump’s party. Retweet so all Americans see this alarming announcement.

https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-ch
arged-russia-media

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:27 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.

Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/us-news/prominent-election-guru-nate-sil
ver-reveals-latest-forecast/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:36 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Hey SECOND ....

Quote:
EPA Ordered to Address Risks of Fluoride in Water Linked to Children's IQ
In August, the National Toxicology Program, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), released a report that stated "with moderate confidence" that there is a connection between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The report marks the first time a federal agency has determined such findings. It was not designed to evaluate the health effects of fluoride in drinking water alone.

https://www.newsweek.com/epa-fluoride-drinking-water-risks-childrens-i
q-1959434

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

Per usual, you missed the point that RFK Jr is absolute sure that all water should never have fluoride added and Trump is fine with stopping all fluoride being added anywhere in the USA. Also, vaccines kill people according to RFK Jr so stop getting vaccinated. RFK Jr, like Trump, talks out of both sides of his mouth, always obfuscating, never understanding what he is talking about, always super-confident when he should be super-quiet so that none would know he is crazy:

RFK Jr. says he’s not anti-vaccine. His record shows the opposite. It’s one of many inconsistencies
https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-election-2024-president-campaig
n-621c9e9641381a1b2677df9de5a09731

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 12:22 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.

Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/us-news/prominent-election-guru-nate-sil
ver-reveals-latest-forecast/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

It's 100% chance for Trump winning the Electoral College.

It's probably a 51.5% that he'll win the popular vote too, but I'm being saucy and calling it at least 1 Million votes in Trump's favor.

I have all the polling data updated from earlier. There is no reason at all to believe otherwise until there is a reason to believe otherwise.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 2:26 AM

I'll still love you if Harris wins Second.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 3:56 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Hey SECOND ....

Quote:
EPA Ordered to Address Risks of Fluoride in Water Linked to Children's IQ
In August, the National Toxicology Program, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), released a report that stated "with moderate confidence" that there is a connection between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The report marks the first time a federal agency has determined such findings. It was not designed to evaluate the health effects of fluoride in drinking water alone.

https://www.newsweek.com/epa-fluoride-drinking-water-risks-childrens-i
q-1959434

SECOND: Per usual, you missed the point that RFK Jr is absolute sure that all water should never have fluoride added and Trump is fine with stopping all fluoride being added anywhere in the USA.

Hey, I'M fine with fluoride not being added anywhere.
It's the risk of doing something (potentially lowering IQ) versus the risk of doing nothing (maybe more cavities).

Yanno, we're exposed to tens of thousands of chemicals in our lifetime, the vast majority untested. We can add microplastics to the mix. How about following the precautionary principle?

Quote:
Also, vaccines kill people according to RFK Jr so stop getting vaccinated.

Well, actually, they do. Just not very often.

I'm not an anti-vaxxer, but I have known two children, personally, who were brain- burned by the pertussis vaccine. Vaccines, even well accepted vaccines, aren't without consequence (for some) , and each time your kids get vaccinated you roll the dice.

With some vaccines, the risk of doing nothing clearly outweighs the risk of doing something. With other vaccines, like HPV and Covid, it's not so clear cut. I think it's time to bring some skepticism into our nutrition, chemical exposure, and vaccine bureaucracies.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:34 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I think it's time to bring some skepticism into our nutrition, chemical exposure, and vaccine bureaucracies.

Whose skepticism? That of Trumptards opposed to anything making them feel uncomfortable? A particular example is abortion. Trumptards feel abortion is murder and banned it in Texas. 60 Minutes visits OB/GYNs in Texas to ask about their feelings.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 6:48 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Law Should Have Locked Him Up

Donald Trump has spent his whole career evading the law. But the law helped him escape.

By Jeremy Stahl | Nov 04, 2024 5:41 AM

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/11/donald-trump-election-2024
-law-jail-courts.html

Americans know all about his crimes and it really does not seem to matter to some 50 percent of us. “We thought somehow that there was something special — better informed, more virtuous, more something — about Americans as opposed to everybody else in human history,” Bowman noted. “And it turns out we’re wrong.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 12:15 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Michael Moore: ‘Trump is toast’

By Judy Kurtz - 11/04/24 9:44 AM ET

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4969641-michael-moore-trump-lose
-harris-maga-nation-2024-election-day/

“I think that they are going to be very surprised — I’m talking about the Trump people and the MAGA nation — by what’s going to happen on Tuesday.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 1:29 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

How much power does a President have? Depends on the President

By Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern | Nov 04, 2024 1:00 PM

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/11/2016-election-supreme-cour
t-helps-trump.html

Will the next president embrace the traditional role of a commander in chief with robust yet limited powers, with a fundamental obligation to serve the citizenry over her parochial needs, and with ultimate accountability to the people and the law? Or will the next president fit the role, newly fashioned by Chief Justice John Roberts and his far-right colleagues, of a self-interested monarch who sits high above the law, and relentlessly persecutes his perceived enemies?

The candidate has unmistakably telegraphed his interpretation of Trump v. United States as a green light to refashion the presidency. From the moment the ruling came down, he hailed it not only as a vindication of his past acts but as permission to go far further in the future. He intends to fire Jack Smith, the special counsel leading his prosecution, immediately upon returning to office, then turn around and prosecute his own perceived enemies within the Justice Department and government immediately thereafter. The list of figures he would like to subject to investigation, arrest, and incarceration under a second Trump term includes (but is hardly limited to) former President Barack Obama, former Rep. Liz Cheney, Mark Zuckerberg, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, Judge Arthur Engoron, members of the U.S. Capitol Police, members of the Jan. 6 committee, election workers, protesters, anyone who criticizes the Supreme Court, and journalists. Trump has also suggested that Gen. Mark Milley, his own chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be executed. (Cheney too.)

This list is really just the start, since the former president also envisions mass prosecutions of “enemies from within.” These “enemies” seem to include all of his many opponents, detractors, critics, and political rivals. And the justice system may not be enough to handle them—which is why Trump has also suggested that “radical left lunatics” will need to be “handled” by the military. He has called for “military tribunals,” like those used to try terrorists at Guantanamo Bay, for some of his top “enemies,” including Obama and Cheney. Put simply: If you have spoken out against the former president at any point, whether you’re a public figure or a private citizen, you will not be safe from a knock at the door in the middle of the night with armed agents waiting to carry out Trump’s wrath.

When John Roberts declared that the president must be able to act “boldly and fearlessly” without fear of breaking the law, is this what he envisioned? If so, then he is utterly complicit in Trump’s plan for a vengeful second term; if not, he is painfully, and humiliatingly naive. Because the Trump who makes all of these promises about revenge and retribution is, of course, the same man who tried to overturn the 2020 election . . .

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 1:54 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

“Stop the Steal” is all grown up and ready to rumble

By Kevin Drum | November 4, 2024 – 10:46 am

https://jabberwocking.com/stop-the-steal-is-all-grown-up-and-ready-to-
rumble/

This Twitter post has been viewed by 6 million people over the past week:

Need help identifying this guy that just dropped off an insane amount of ballots who says he’s with the post office but idk if I buy that. He wouldn’t talk to us and was acting very suspect. @EarlyVoteAction @ScottPresler @SazonLes @VoteHarrisOut @Postcardstopa https://x.com/hippiedaytrader/status/1851383775990817256
— Brandon Matlack (@hippiedaytrader) October 29, 2024

The "guy" was indeed just a postal carrier delivering a single plastic bin of mail-in ballots. The Washington Post reports that this video is part of a widespread and well-organized effort to promote a far larger and better-coordinated version of 2020's hastily created "Stop the Steal" movement:

X has also rolled out new features, such as its “Election Integrity Community,” the feed on which Matlack’s video of the mail worker gained viral attention. The feed, which has more than 50,000 members, promotes tweets showing “potential incidents of voter fraud or irregularities,” regardless of their accuracy.

The feed is run by America PAC, Musk’s $118 million pro-Trump super PAC, which shared a since-deleted digital ad calling Harris “a big ole C-word” — they said it meant “communist” — and has boosted claims that Trump’s opponents have tried to “take him out for good.”

....About 12 hours after the Northampton video started exploding on X, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before. … Law Enforcement must act, NOW!” The top comment on it, from a user named “Patriotic Marine,” showed the postal worker’s face and license plate and urged viewers to find him and “prosecute him for Treason.” It was liked more than 1,000 times.

This stuff has likely been under your radar so far, circulating only among MAGA cultists, but that's likely to change tomorrow. Prepare yourself for a tsunami of idiotic claims like this if Kamala Harris wins.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, November 4, 2024 1:55 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I hope Trump does to the Blob what was done to him.

If that thought scares you, then you know exactly what was done.

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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA

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Monday, November 4, 2024 2:01 PM

Lot of cope articles coming out of the left today.

I don't blame them. The polls are terrible right now. +4(D) means there is a tie. If the polls are showing an actual tie, that means Democrats lose by 4 points.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 2:37 PM

Allow me to elaborate on that...

On this day in History, November 4th:

0000000000000000---2024----000---2020---000----2016-----
National000000000Trump +0.0000Biden +6.9000Clinton0 +3.2
--------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin0000000Harris +0.4000Biden +6.7000Clinton0 +6.5
Pennsylvania0000Trump0 +0.3000Biden +2.6000Clinton0 +2.1
Ohio000000000000Trump0 +7.3000Trump +1.0000Trump000 +2.2
Michigan00000000Harris +1.2000Biden +5.1000Clinton0 +3.6
Arizona000000000Trump0 +2.7000Biden +0.9000Trump00 +4.0
Nevada0000000000Trump0 +1.0000Biden +3.6000Trump 000+0.8
North Carolina00Trump0 +1.5000Trump +0.2000Trump 000+0.8
Georgia000000000Trump0 +1.7000Biden +0.2000Trump000 +4.8
Florida000000000Trump0 +8.0000Biden +0.9000Trump00 +0.4

Here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2020...

National:000000 Trump +6.9
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.3
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.9
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +6.3
Michigan:000000 Trump +3.9
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.6
Nevada:00000000 Trump +4.3
North Carolina: Trump +1.3
Georgia:0000000 Trump +1.5
Florida:0000000 Trump +8.9

And here's where Trump stands in the battleground states compared to 2016...

National:000000 Trump +3.2
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +6.1
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +2.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +5.1
Michigan:000000 Trump +2.4
Arizona:0000000 Trump -1.3
Nevada:00000000 Trump +0.2
North Carolina: Trump +0.7
Georgia:0000000 Trump -3.1
Florida:0000000 Trump +7.6

Michigan Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan
/trump-vs-harris

Wisconsin Polling:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsi
n/trump-vs-harris

4 years ago when Trump lost, Joe Biden was sitting on a +6.9 lead in national polling.

8 years ago when Hillary Clinton lost, she was sitting at +3.2 in national polling.

Today, the day before the 2024 election, national polling is a tie.

COMPARISONS TO THE 2020 ELECTION:

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2020

2020 Presidential Election vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Biden +4.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Biden +1.2 (50.0% Biden / 48.8% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.1 (53.3% Trump / 45.2% Biden)
Michigan:000000 Biden +1.8 (50.6% Biden / 47.8% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Biden +0.3 (49.4% Biden / 49.1% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Biden +2.4 (50.1% Biden / 47.7% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +1.3 (49.9% Trump / 48.6% Biden)
Georgia:0000000 Biden +0.2 (49.5% Biden / 49.3% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +3.3 (51.2% Biden / 47.9% Trump)

What do those numbers mean in relation to the numbers posted earlier?

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results...

National:000000 Biden POLLS: +6.9 - ACTUAL: +4.4 = 2020 BIAS: -2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Biden POLLS: +6.7 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: -6.4
Pennsylvania:00 Biden POLLS: +2.6 - ACTUAL: +1.2 = 2020 BIAS: -1.4
Ohio:0000000000 Biden POLLS: -1.0 - ACTUAL: -8.1 = 2020 BIAS: -7.1
Michigan:000000 Biden POLLS: +5.1 - ACTUAL: +1.8 = 2020 BIAS: -3.3
Arizona:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: +0.3 = 2020 BIAS: +0.6
Nevada:00000000 Biden POLLS: +3.3 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
North Carolina: Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: -1.3 = 2020 BIAS: -1.1
Georgia:0000000 Biden POLLS: -0.2 - ACTUAL: +0.2 = 2020 BIAS: +0.4
Florida:0000000 Biden POLLS: +0.9 - ACTUAL: -3.3 = 2020 BIAS: -4.2

Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2020 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2020 BIAS: -2.4 = Trump + 2.4
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2020 BIAS: -6.4 = Trump +6.0
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2020 BIAS: -1.4 = Trump +3.4
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2020 BIAS: -7.1 = Trump +15.0
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +2.7
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.6 = Trump +2.1
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.1
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2020 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +2.6
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2020 BIAS: +0.4 = Trump +1.3
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2020 BIAS: -3.3 = Trump +11.3

COMPARISONS TO THE 2016 ELECTION:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Figuring for the 2016 Polling Biases (8 years ago on this day):

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_battleground_states,_2016

2016 Presidential Election ACTUAL vote margins by battleground state:

National:000000 Clint +2.1 (48.2% Clinton / 46.1% Trump)
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump +0.8 (46.5% Clinton / 47.2% Trump)
Pennsylvania:00 Trump +0.7 (47.9% Clinton / 48.6% Trump)
Ohio:0000000000 Trump +8.2 (43.5% Clinton / 51.7% Trump)
Michigan:000000 Trump +0.2 (47.3% Clinton / 57.5% Trump)
Arizona:0000000 Trump +3.5 (45.1% Clinton / 48.7% Trump)
Nevada:00000000 Clint +2.4 (47.9% Clinton / 45.5% Trump)
North Carolina: Trump +3.7 (46.2% Clinton / 49.8% Trump)
Georgia:0000000 Trump +5.2 (45.9% Clinton / 51.0% Trump)
Florida:0000000 Trump +1.2 (47.8% Clinton / 49.0% Trump)

Let's compare the polling averages 4 years ago today with the actual election results 4 years ago...

(NOTE: A "+" bias is in favor of Trump, a "-" bias is in favor of the Democrat. This is important because Hillary's polling at the national level cratered from +7.2 to nothing in record time at the end and she actually did +0.5 better than the polls suggested she would on November 1st.

A "-" in the "ACTUAL" column means a Trump win, while a "+" means a Clinton win)

National:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.2 - ACTUAL: +2.1 = 2016 BIAS: -1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Clinton POLLS: +6.5 - ACTUAL: -0.8 = 2016 BIAS: -7.3
Pennsylvania:00 Clinton POLLS: +2.1 - ACTUAL: -0.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.8
Ohio:0000000000 Clinton POLLS: -2.2 - ACTUAL: -8.2 = 2016 BIAS: -6.0
Michigan:000000 Clinton POLLS: +3.6 - ACTUAL: -0.2 = 2016 BIAS: -3.8
Arizona:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.0 - ACTUAL: -3.5 = 2016 BIAS: -0.5
Nevada:00000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: +2.4 = 2016 BIAS: +3.2
North Carolina: Clinton POLLS: -0.8 - ACTUAL: -3.7 = 2016 BIAS: -2.9
Georgia:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -4.8 - ACTUAL: -5.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.4
Florida:0000000 Clinton POLLS: -0.4 - ACTUAL: -1.2 = 2016 BIAS: -0.8

Now let's take the Democrat bias in the polls from 2016 and apply them to our current day polling...

National:000000 Trump POLLS: +0.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.1 = Trump +1.1
--------------------------
Wisconsin:00000 Trump POLLS: -0.4 - 2016 BIAS: -6.3 = Trump +6.7
Pennsylvania:00 Trump POLLS: +0.3 - 2016 BIAS: -2.8 = Trump +3.1
Ohio:0000000000 Trump POLLS: +7.3 - 2016 BIAS: -6.0 = Trump +13.3
Michigan:000000 Trump POLLS: -1.2 - 2016 BIAS: -3.8 = Trump +5.0
Arizona:0000000 Trump POLLS: +2.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.5 = Trump +3.2
Nevada:00000000 Trump POLLS: +1.0 - 2016 BIAS: +3.2 = Harris +4.2
North Carolina: Trump POLLS: +1.5 - 2016 BIAS: -2.9 = Trump +4.4
Georgia:0000000 Trump POLLS: +1.7 - 2016 BIAS: -0.4 = Trump +2.1
Florida:0000000 Trump POLLS: +8.0 - 2016 BIAS: -1.2 = Trump +9.2

Trump's lowest state margins looked just slightly better in 2016 than in 2020, but only by about half a point. In 2020 all polling was bad in favor of Joe Biden* on both the national and the state level save for a +0.6 bias toward Trump in Arizona. Against Clinton in 2016 it was Nevada that polled Trump too high, with the +3.2 bias in favor of Trump in Nevada being the one true anomaly over the previous two election cycles. (The bias for Nevada in 2020 was +1.1 points in favor of Joe Biden*) Because of this Nevada bias anomaly in 2016, Harris does win Nevada quite convincingly with current polling data vs. the 2016 biases. I'm not convinced of this result, however, since polling in Arizona and Nevada has remained relatively tight for 3 election cycles and much closer to reality, no matter who won.

This is why I've called every BG state save for one or two. I'm more worried about Nevada not going to Trump than any other swing state out there. My other reservation would be shared between Arizona and Wisconsin, and I only throw Wisconsin in there because of things that JSF has said about his state Government.

With the National Level polling bump that Clinton got last minute, the biases from 2016 now put Trump over Harris on the Popular Vote when comparing vs. the 2016 biases as well as the 2020 biases. The only thing that Harris wins on any level when comparing to previous cycle polling is Nevada vs. the 2016 polls/results.

There would have to be a MASSIVE change in the way all polling firms operated this year to swing the aggregate so far this way merely through changing up their collective polling methodologies.

Also, although I don't provide the data here, I have reason to believe that states like Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota are in play as well.

--------------------------------------------------

Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.

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Monday, November 4, 2024 3:05 PM