Stock market tanks- AS I PREDICTED by SignyM

DALEK!

Slow down. Right now it is just as easy to claim that the markets are tanking because the debt deal did not cut enough. Not to mention you also have the economic problems in the EU spreading.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that you haven't yet been proven right.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 11:40 AM

DREAMTROVE

Actually Rap predicted the same, but for a different reason, and that is the same I used to make the same prediction: raising the debt limit leads to a currency crisis. No one buys stock valued in depriciating currencies.

Think about it. I don't have a lot to invest, but when I make money, I can't stick it all in my pocket, so it has to go somewhere. Should I put it in the bank? That has two problems:

1) banks are notoriously dishonest and unstable, and may take my money, charge me fees, or collapse (we all know FDIC insurance really only covers two cents on the dollar.

2) my bank account is valued in dollars. Sure, I could go to the extreme of getting a foreign currency account or foreign bank account, but there's a much simpler solution:

Buy stock.

Now, if I buy stock, I have to consider thar various stock markets of the world are also valued in local currency. Ergo, if I buy a stock, it should be Chinese or Indian, and not American, because it would be valued in dollars. (my mom had stock in a greek company, ouch.)

So I assume major money players of the world think much more like I do than like alien lizard men.

Do I consider the impact of govt spending in 2014 when I buy stock? No, probably not. I never invest in contractors, the risk is way too high, random political decisions effect those things. I also don't care what my investment is doing in 2014.

The only ways spending is really going to affect the market is if the company your holding is gaming for a big govt contract, or much worse: if the govt. Spending recipients are taking that money and gambling on the stock market (and derivatives) which they sometimes are. But the market won't tank today because of spending they won't receive in years to come.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 11:49 AM

America loves a winner!

Double dip was expected long ago, right after Obama's initial foolish stimulus. So right away, you're trying to take credit for that which wasn't at all what you were predicting.

The comical assertion that any LACK of federal spending has 1 iota to do w/ the stock market tanking. Credit the TEA party movement for SAVING us, by not making matters worse.

Also, there haven't been any spending CUTS. Just reductions in growth. That's the problem. There's no confidence with our debtors that we're serious about doing anything constructive here. The ceiling was never the issue, but our plan ( or lack there of ) to do something sensible and honest about taking care of the budget deficit is what has us up the proverbial creek.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 1:57 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht

Ever since I first learnt about the stock market at age 8 I've thought it was silly and potentially disastrous. One of my favorite movies at the time was about a girl who goes back in time to right before the Depression starts. So I asked about the stock market and was shocked to learn that people actually put their money into it. Sure you can make it big, but you can also tumble, how is that any different than spending thousands on poker at the casino?
I understand that some people are drawn by the allure of that sort of thing and its their choice whether to participate, I just know it's not for me, I'm not a risk taker at all.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Friday, August 5, 2011 4:54 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Actually Rap predicted the same

Actually, rap predicted nothing. When I told him (a month ago) to short the market he said You don't know what you're talking about. So there!

BTW DT, there are a lot more investment choices than "Dollars, or stocks? Stocks, or dollars?" That's pretty limited thinking. Forex? Commodities? Precious metals? Foreign stocks? Foreign real estate?

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Friday, August 5, 2011 5:11 PM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Actually, rap predicted nothing. When I told him (a month ago) to short the market he said You don't know what you're talking about. So there!

A month ago ? The issue of a double dip recession has been openly discussed for well over a year. Hell, probably 2 years ?

So there!

Oh, and the stock market nose diving was pretty damn predictable. This date has been circled for some time now, and Obama's inaction and the Dems stubbornness to put partisan politics a head of the good of the country didn't help fears. When the stupid deal was signed, it was a clear signal to the market that the US wasn't at all interested in solving its deficit crisis.

Did I ever tell you that I'm NOT in any way in the financial industry ? I know you've alluded to me being a trader,or a broker, or some such... I really can't tell what's in that silly mind of yours.

I have always found that to be amusing. I am not, never have been, and unless my brain goes missing, never will be... what ever the hell it is you think I'm suppose to be.

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Friday, August 5, 2011 5:51 PM

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)

Quote:
...and unless my brain goes missing, never will be... what ever the hell it is you think I'm suppose to be.

Heh. I guess we can take that as confirmation, your brain having been missing for the last several years at least!

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Friday, August 5, 2011 5:54 PM

DALEK!

I disagree, for his brain to go missing he would have had to have one first.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 5:56 PM

Good point.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 6:41 PM

I have a prediction too. I predict I will get laid by next weekend. I can say this with confidence because I have seen this pattern happen before. Perhaps it will occur because I am the 'alpha as fuck' or maybe because the situation in question was headed in that direction anyway. Regardless, when it happens, it will prove I am a wizard or some such. After all, I predicted the future. I deserve a cookie and so do you

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Friday, August 5, 2011 7:08 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I predict that Happy will be an asshole. Oh, wait... to late!

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Friday, August 5, 2011 7:24 PM

No, no, you gotta predict the future. I can predict that I did not eat breakfast the yesterday but that's too easy. My next prediction is that liberals will continue to blame Bush for our current problems. Actually that one is easier than the breakfast...

My next prediction will have to wait until I can assert it's accuracy after that fact with an air of superiority.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 7:44 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Have you ever considered a career in the National Weather Service, then ?
Cause that's EXACTLY what they do, go back and re-write their "forecast" (which is wrong more than 70% of the time) so it matches what actually happened and then crow about how "accurate" they are...

40% chance of rain, light drizzle my ass, that deluge was so overhwelmingly powerful it saturated and destroyed my raincoat - thankfully I had two backup raincoats, cause being *ridiculously* prepared is, IMHO, part of my job.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/CrazyPrepared

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Friday, August 5, 2011 8:18 PM

BYTEMITE

I don't understand. Predicting the future is a positive experience?

Well, I guess there was the one time I got another cat out of it. Ooh, and the time they made that video game.

But there are things that hurt a person to see, and sometimes, you see them happen twice.

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 1:22 AM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by TheHappyTrader:
I have a prediction too. I predict I will get laid by next weekend. I can say this with confidence because I have seen this pattern happen before. Perhaps it will occur because I am the 'alpha as fuck' or maybe because the situation in question was headed in that direction anyway. Regardless, when it happens, it will prove I am a wizard or some such. After all, I predicted the future. I deserve a cookie and so do you

Have good sex!

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 5:32 AM

Sorry, but 'good' sex was not part of the prediction. As always, you prove that everyone who isn't liberal has no greater desire than to spout hatred and put words in other peoples mouth. AURaptor, you should feel ashamed.

But rest assured, if the sex is not good, it is clearly the fault of the other party, who could not see the future as clearly as I do.

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 5:46 AM

BYTEMITE

Don't yell at Kaylee, she is little and sensitive.

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 6:11 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Good one, Byte! However, reading his posts, I am guessing Happy was being sarcastic, not serious, in most of what he wrote. Am I wrong, Happy? Seems to me that tempers are running high enough that people are "reading" Raptor into stuff that isn't intended that way.

Heaven knows I could be wrong, but what he writes seems almost "Mincing" to me. And if it WAS sarcasm, Happy, you're following in good footsteps and doing a right fine job of it, since you "got 'em good"--they bought into it.

Of course, if I AM wrong, you're an asshole.

Either way, I DO agree with your first post, Happy, that there's a lot more to it than just the debt ceiling. Nonetheless, I think it's contributory, and in my opinion, everyone's so afraid of the "D" word that nobody's admitting we're on the brink of, if not IN, a depression already. Cutting spending with no revenue pretty much guarantees it, to me, given it's happened in the past.

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 7:23 AM

Of course, Mincing is my sockpuppet, but don't tell anyone because I haven't informed him of this yet.

It was sarcasm, but the first two post might have been edited by Captain Morgan... anyhow, it is what it is, and maybe a bit assholish too.

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 8:10 AM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:

Good one, Byte! However, reading his posts, I am guessing Happy was being sarcastic, not serious, in most of what he wrote. Am I wrong, Happy? Seems to me that tempers are running high enough that people are "reading" Raptor into stuff that isn't intended that way.

If there's one place when a person can say ' have good sex!' and it be understood by most everyone, AS INTENDED, it should be here !

Good grief.

Misread this, if you can....

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Saturday, August 6, 2011 9:16 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Ah-hah! I got it. Do I get a gold star, Happy? And, as an aside, I think Mincing would be right proud to be your sockpuppet, you're getting almost as good as him!

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 6:33 AM

America loves a winner!

" Miss ME yet ?? "

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 11:59 AM

KANEMAN

The market will always rebound...don't fret

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 12:01 PM

DALEK!

Had we listen to Carter we would not be in this situation.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 4:14 PM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by m52nickerson:
Had we listen to Carter we would not be in this situation.

Hell, not even Roslyn believes that tripe.

Well, in part, you'd be right. We'd never have had anywhere near the success since getting out of the Carter malaise, so there'd be nothing to crash back down to!

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 5:43 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht

I predict that it is actually Frem who wrote tropes.org because he constantly references it.

Niki a chara I find it hard to believe that you didn't get what Raptor was saying when he said "Have good sex".

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Sunday, August 7, 2011 5:47 PM

Interesting. Bush spent more than Obama, Clinton, and Reagan, COMBINED.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 6:28 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Riona, I'm not sure what you mean by my "not getting" his joke about having good sex. I didn't respond to it, is that what you mean? I didn't think it worthy of response, while Mincing's silliness was imaginative and funny, so I noted it, that's all.

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Monday, August 8, 2011 7:03 AM

Riona, I believe Raptor's post was directed at me. You see, AURaptor is too ARROGANT to accept the FACT that everything he says everywhere is WRONG!!!!!1!!!11!1

He is not worthy of our time nor intelligent discussion and best left ignored. That's why we respond to all his post and talk about him when he is not present.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 9:06 AM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by TheHappyTrader:
Riona, I believe Raptor's post was directed at me. You see, AURaptor is too ARROGANT to accept the FACT that everything he says everywhere is WRONG!!!!!1!!!11!1

He is not worthy of our time nor intelligent discussion and best left ignored. That's why we respond to all his post and talk about him when he is not present.

Arrogance has nothing in the least bit to do with it, at all. Fact is, I'm overly humble.

It's you mindless sycophants who refuse to see the world as it truly is.

But that's not important. Dow drops (currently ) another 500 pts. Obama's speech , defiant and petulant, as a little child, hasn't helped matters, at all. Made them a lot worse, actually.

Obama has blamed Bush, tsunamis, tornadoes, earthquakes, Arab spring, Republicans, Tea Party, BP, ATM's and now... even S&P, as the latest reason that life isn't the happy happy joy joy time so many were conned into buying, at the Imaculation celebration , back on Jan 20, 2009.

Hate to say I told ya so...

No, I don't. I told ya so, folks. Sucks being right sometimes.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 9:32 AM

DALEK!

It should be noted that one of the reasons S&P downgraded is because of the GOP unwillingness to consider raising revenues.

"Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8685683/SandP-downg
rade-the-statement.html

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 9:37 AM

BYTEMITE

The board is suffering from an acute case of comedy failure.

I pronounce it terminal.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 9:43 AM

America loves a winner!

- 550+ now... the avalanche is gaining steam.

Way to instill confidence, Barry.

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, August 8, 2011 10:05 AM

America loves a winner!

Dow closes at - 633

Good grief.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 1:38 PM

Meanwhile, the tea-baggers cheer, proving to one and all that the GOP has been all about collapsing the economy every since Americans had the gall to elect a black man President.

"Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservatives." - John Stuart Mill

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Monday, August 8, 2011 1:41 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

could not resist ... just had to preserve this gem ...

AuRaptor
"Arrogance has nothing in the least bit to do with it, at all. Fact is, I'm overly humble."

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Monday, August 8, 2011 2:05 PM

John Boehner: "I got 98% of what I wanted."

Indeed he did.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 2:47 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Still, economists are saying there's something screwy about the S&P downgrade. Most economists have said that (1) the USA is not in a debt crisis and (2) the lowered ratings (which should reflect ability to pay) don't make any sense. Indeed, Treasuries actually GAINED value after the downgrade.. clearly, the market isn't at all concerned about getting paid Tbond interest and sees no additional risk because investors are willing to pay MORE for a (theoretically) riskier investment.

I will bet you quite a bit that the downgrade was politically motivated. I don't know who stood to gain and why it occurred, but it is nonsensical from a financing viewpoint. I hope someone does some forensic economics on it.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 3:06 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

That's the analysis I've been hearing from various economists - that the US is not more likely to default on its debts than before. Some have put this down to S&P trying to recoup credibility after rating credit default swaps so well. But maybe there is an even more specific, pointed reason.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 3:53 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Oh yeah - just want to point out that my first very large gold purchase (which some people insist we can't do!, so I, apparently, have done the impossible) has more than tripled, while my second has more than doubled.

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Monday, August 8, 2011 6:26 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
could not resist ... just had to preserve this gem ...

AuRaptor
"Arrogance has nothing in the least bit to do with it, at all. Fact is, I'm overly humble."

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Monday, August 8, 2011 6:40 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

That's an AWESOME photo!

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Friday, August 30, 2013 9:21 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

and Syria looming

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Friday, August 30, 2013 9:38 AM

America loves a winner!

Feh.. The economy is on FIRE, baby!

Y'all trippin'

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, August 30, 2013 11:00 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Oh dear. Last time rappy said the economy was "on fire" it died a sudden death.

Curiously, rappy seems to be one step behind- again. Obama pulled the economy (as much as he was able, given the repubs in Congress) with fiscal policy, and Bernanke filled in where Obama couldn't- with quantitative easing (buying up banks' worth-less Treasuries and mortgage-backed assests, and giving the banks money). Hooray for free money for the banks! So full-on austerity was not the USA response, and we were spared the riots and 30%+ unemployment of southern Europe.

Instead, what we got was a stock bubble, followed by a nascent housing bubble (again). And it seems that if there's one thing rappy can sniff out, it's a bubble.

Since what happens to the economy is very policy-dependent (We can compare ourselves to the EU), what happens when the Fed STOPS pulling money out of its ass and throwing it to the banks?

Well, interest rates rise. The dollar goes up. Exports go down. Many emerging market currencies go down. Also, the yen goes down because they're doing QE now. Stocks go down. The USA housing boomlet is nipped in the bud... say goodbye to all of that real estate-backed wealth. Interesting times.

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Friday, August 30, 2013 1:11 PM

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by G:
Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
Feh.. The economy is on FIRE, baby!

Y'all trippin'

You have drone stock, don't ya? Figures!

Michael Moore has stock in Haliburton. Probably in BP oil , too.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, August 30, 2013 1:17 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Liar.

Oh, and BTW- that's Halliburton (with two l's)

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Friday, August 30, 2013 1:38 PM

STORYMARK

Moore's foundation bought (and then sold off) some Halliburton stock, so that Moore would have the right to attend stockholder meetings, with the intent of questioning Halliburton execs.

So, for once, rappy boy is kinda sorta correct - but in a way that makes him as wrong as ever.

Poor kid. Just doesn't get it...

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Friday, August 30, 2013 2:06 PM