What happens if... by Bytemite

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

What happens if...

POSTED BY: BYTEMITE
UPDATED: Thursday, August 4, 2011 14:16
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VIEWED: 1151
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Monday, August 1, 2011 5:31 AM

Hey people. This isn't a snark or anything, so don't get me wrong. I'm just seeing a lot of fear and worry on the board I think, which is coming out as a lot of fighting between everyone.

So I'm going to sit down here cross legged, and maybe offer an alternative point of view.

In my opinion, what happens if neither party compromises?

My answer? Nothing. They'll milk the public emotions for as long as they can for constituent support, then hammer out some last minute deal.

This goes for just about everything. They can make ANYTHING into a wedge issue. The best way to tell if something is serious or not, if some issue is pitting the two sides against each other an extraordinary amount, it's probably not actually a crisis.

Now there's probably a lot of counter arguments and examples here I can get from both sides on this. Fine, go ahead and tell me, I'm interested in hearing.

Since this post was prompted by all the economics talk I've seen, and the economics debate isn't yet resolved, I might end up being wrong. And I hope not, because best case scenario we get a nasty ping in our interest, credit, and inflation rates (plus some negative impressions around the globe), and worst case, the dollar might collapse. But it's in both parties best interests to keep the dollars they're so invested in viable, so even if they seem obstinant, I really think it might be an act.

I just wanted to explain to you all, why it is that I'm usually right down the middle on a lot of this stuff, and why it is I never really feel any particular urge to start yelling at any of you guys. Suffice to say, I don't think any of you are to blame for anything, especially not the national politics. Also, I think you guys are all okay. I may not agree with you on everything, but I'm willing to understand you have a different opinion than me, and maybe even a different way you want to do things, and I don't think any of you are evil for it.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 5:59 AM

DREAMTROVE

If neither party does anything, I think we're better off. Maybe we should *increase* the infighting

Think about the times when both parties cooperated: We got the Iraq War, we got the Patriot Act, we got Homeland Security. Maybe we want to see a little *less* cooperation.

Better yet, let's split both parties into 4, so that 3 can oppose whoever is trying to do something...

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 6:09 AM

BYTEMITE

You mentioned it was resolved in another thread, I'd heard something like they were coming up with a last minute plan yesterday, I didn't know if it had passed. I assumed it did, because, well, see my point above.

Although sounds like the agreement might be just token on both sides. Lets hope it really is a trillion and not a congressional trillion.

Quote:
If neither party does anything, I think we're better off. Maybe we should *increase* the infighting

Not actually against that. It's just, sometimes, you guys, it's a little painful when you start tearing into each other over stuff like this. Especially when I know for a certainty that it'll be resolved to best maintain the status quo.

Considering that, if you're someone who maybe doesn't like everything about this country, but you're okay with one party or another, there's not a whole lot of reason to worry that things are all going to fall apart in the next six months, or after another election cycle. No matter who is in office.

If you're like me, and there's a lot about the status quo you might grumble about and you don't like either party, then this is just the unsurprising cynical confirmation of things never really changing.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 6:56 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

I also heard about various people saying that an agreement is near, a compromise deal has been reached, immediately followed by somebody partisan on the other side ( both D and R, too, not pointing at any one side here.) saying that that guy's deal was dead on arrival. The only sensible comment I saw all weekend was, "it ain't over 'till the votes are held", which hasn't happened yet, as far as I know. So I think both sides are still jaw-boning and arm twisting, hoping that the media frenzy will get behind THEIR claim of success and make it true.

I still think a stalemate might occur, and default. I just HOPE that that doesn't lead to the worst case scenarios that the media is looking to scare us with. Hope that the real world power brokers, the bankers and money men, will figure out that they'll come out better by taking a few short term lumps than by letting or causing the whole thing to collapse.

But then, given the lessons of history, I ain't sure that's gonna happen.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 7:03 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

This is what's over on CNN.com, seems to be a statement of the FACTS
:

Quote:

Congress is expected to vote Monday on a last-minute agreement to raise the federal government's debt ceiling while imposing sweeping spending cuts, a bipartisan deal that promises to narrowly avert an unprecedented national default with catastrophic economic consequences.

The deal calls for up to $2.4 trillion in savings over the next decade, raises the debt ceiling through the end of 2012 and establishes a special congressional commission to recommend long-term fiscal reforms.

The measure needs to reach President Barack Obama's desk by Tuesday night. If the current $14.3 trillion debt limit is not increased by that point, Americans could face rapidly rising interest rates, a falling dollar and shakier financial markets, among other problems.

European markets fall | Stocks: Manufacturing data erases rally

SO they're gonna vote, at least probably, but CNN isn't gonna predict the result.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 7:23 AM

BYTEMITE

"But then, given the lessons of history, I ain't sure that's gonna happen."

The lessons of history?

Whenever I see something like this, the last minute deal seems to always pass. Though sometimes they do punt it six months down the line to resolve.

What ones do you mean?

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Monday, August 1, 2011 8:16 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Quote:
Originally posted by Bytemite:
"But then, given the lessons of history, I ain't sure that's gonna happen."

The lessons of history?

Whenever I see something like this, the last minute deal seems to always pass. Though sometimes they do punt it six months down the line to resolve.

What ones do you mean?

I'm talking about the lessons of history where all the smart insiders agree that something must be done, even tho' it's painful and some big (financial) interest is going to have to take a loss for the good of all; and then that big interest reacts in a selfish and greedy manner and makes the situation worse for everybody.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 9:23 AM

BYTEMITE

Is this about Lehman Brothers?

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Monday, August 1, 2011 1:16 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Uh, they haven't voted. I hope it loses, or they never vote. Has anyone paid attention to the DETAILS of that "agreement" or of the Balanced Budget Amendment it would shove down our throats because the Republicans wouldn't agree to what's supposed to follow it?

What happens if? OBAMA SHOULD USE THE 14TH AMENDMENT and be done with all this bullshit, so we can get back to SOMEONE trying to work on jobs. Or not. So far, aside from the stimulus, I haven't seen either side do much about jobs. The Republicans are passing laws that will make MORE unemployed and want to cut the budget to make even MORE, and the Dems, as usual, are sitting on their hands.

I'd love to see him use the 14th, but I'm pretty sure he hasn't got the balls. If they don't reach any agreement, things are gonna go ka-whacko exponentially. It's really simple; if we don't raise the ceiling, the government doesn't take in as much as it spends out. Ergo, if we do it NOW, right away, more and more things aren't going to be able to be paid, and each month it will get worse. We don't got the revenue to get through it without raising the ceiling NOW, THEN working to cut--you know, like THINKING about what should be cut and where, rather than just saying "oops, we can't pay you, don't gots the money..."

I don't believe it's made up. Read the facts. As to it being a game, definitely; the ceiling was raised seven TIMES under Bush, and over a hundred times through history; anyone wonder why it's such a wonderful tool to hold the country/government hostage? Because not raising it now, out of the blue, will create chaos; they know it, so they assume they'll get whatever they want to avoid it.

Go 14th amendment! Fuck 'em all.

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Monday, August 1, 2011 1:50 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Can kicked down the road.

Cowards, all of them.

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Monday, August 1, 2011 2:02 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!

The problem is that even Obama thinks the 14th amendment argument would not have held up in court.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/07/white-house-14th-amend
ment-not-available-debt-default/40423/

I tend to agree with him. I don't think it would stand up in court. The main reason is that the US would not necessarily default on its debts if the cap was not raised. Grained all incoming revenue (or close to it) would have to go to make the payments.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 2:03 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:

Can kicked down the road.

Cowards, all of them.

No, because of idiots who refuse to compromise. AKA Teabaggers.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 2:54 PM

DREAMTROVE

See,s that despite the contention befpre the deal, not all of us are united in not liking ther deal.

I don't think the 14th a debt clause applies here.

Looks like appointed supercomittee. Well, expect recommendations lt implemented, also, expect a tax increase. We can't really sustain this spending level.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 3:15 PM

BYTEMITE

Well, if the deal sucks, that's just par for the course. I'm reading up on it now. This was just my assessment from a gut-feeling intuitive sense.

But oh, look, they passed a bomb at the last minute, and are now using it as a basis for finger pointing and further polarization of the public. How utterly predictable.

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Monday, August 1, 2011 3:28 PM

BYTEMITE

Eww, supercommittee.

Although, the spending cap could be a disincentive to go to war. Unfortunately, they'll probably cut social programs and infrastructure instead.

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Tuesday, August 2, 2011 8:47 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

What you said, Byte; they'll find a way to keep financing the military-industrial complex, come what may.

It DOES suck and it IS a bomb--for everyone but the Tea Party and GOP (tho' the GOP may find they don't like it either)--and it's guaranteed to encourage the TPers to keep right on doing what they've done for everything else: stonewall until they get their way.

I about spit when I heard Boner say OBAMA had extended the tax cuts because he realized this wasn't the time to yada yada yada (I stopped listening then). WE (the country) got SHAFTED on the tax cuts by exactly the same method as raising the debt ceiling; Obama being a weak-willed, namby-pamby asshole willing to "compromise" (reads "give 'em whatever they want") us into the ground.

Then they turn arond and say HE did it.

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Tuesday, August 2, 2011 9:12 AM

BYTEMITE

"What you said, Byte; they'll find a way to keep financing the military-industrial complex, come what may."

Yeah. I guess I was feeling optimistic for a second there. ._.

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Tuesday, August 2, 2011 12:05 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

I'd watch that impulse if I were you...

Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off

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Thursday, August 4, 2011 2:08 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht

Byte was right ... again. Its funny. Before she got me to come here I thought she had some unique beliefs about things that were a little more extreme than mine in certain ways, not good or bad persay, just different. But after being here for six months (has it really been that long?) I see that she is indeed pretty much down the middle about a lot of things and extremely level headed about most everything. Plus she's a very good friend, but that hasn't changed since I got on this forum, she always has been.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Thursday, August 4, 2011 2:16 PM

DREAMTROVE

Turned out to be congressional magic, so it's now $150 billion, cut from discretional, but not until 2013. I'm guessing it won't be military or homeland stupidity. Also, soc. Sec. Medicare and taxes are off the table. I see railroads, nasa, science labs, and the EPA going down the drain. Also, probably they'll talk about ethanol subsidies, but then will balk because that will give the GOP ammunition for Iowa, which dems don't have to deal with, but will get a lot of coverage.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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