REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Sceptical climate scientists concede Earth has warmed

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Monday, October 24, 2011 06:56
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Friday, October 21, 2011 6:41 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Not to start another endless, pointless "debate" (I use the term loosely), it appears yet another bunch of sceptics have joined the majority of scientists:
Quote:

A group of scientists known for their scepticism about climate change has reanalysed two centuries' worth of global temperature records. Their study largely confirms previous ones: it finds strong evidence that Earth is getting hotter.

"The valid issues raised by [climate] sceptics, when addressed fully and in detail, do not significantly change the answer," says lead author Richard Muller of the University of California, Berkeley. In a testimony to the US Congress earlier this year, Muller questioned whether global temperature records showed a significant warming during the 20th century.

His project, the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), has now pulled together global temperature data going back to 1800 from 15 sources, including datasets held by the World Meteorological Organisation and US and UK government agencies.

BEST concludes that land temperatures have risen by 1 °C since the 1950s. This is largely in line with the three existing global temperature records: GISTEMP, maintained by NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's GHCN and HadCRU, kept by the UK Met Office. The 1 °C of warming reflects warming above land masses only, so is not yet a truly global estimate.

In a series of papers that have not yet been peer-reviewed but are available on the BEST website, the researchers examine how reliable the temperature data is.

Contrary to earlier studies that are often quoted by climate sceptics, the BEST researchers find that including data from weather stations in cities – which are warmer than rural areas – makes little difference to the overall trend. "Urban warming does not unduly bias estimates of recent global temperature change," they say.

Blogger Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That has repeatedly claimed that temperature data is unreliable because weather stations are poorly placed – for instance, next to air-conditioning vents or other heat sources. However, BEST found no statistically significant difference in the trends seen at well-placed and poorly placed stations.

"They get the same result that everyone else has gotten," says Michael Mann of Penn State University in University Park. "That said, I think it's at least useful to see that even a critic like Muller, when he takes an honest look, finds that climate science is robust."

David Whitehouse, science adviser to The Global Warming Policy Foundation, a London-based think tank that has former British finance minister Nigel Lawson for chairman (said) "Everybody agrees that the temperature has warmed. The people who disagree about temperatures are the barking mad end of the spectrum. " http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21074-sceptical-climate-scientis
ts-concede-earth-has-warmed.html
a great video at that site which is eye-opening. At http://www.newscientist.com/video/1227970343001-changes-in-land-surfac
e-temperature-since-1800.html


The changes especially since 1980 are pretty dramatic!

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:10 AM

BYTEMITE


Perhaps I'll also bump my trees post, it answers some questions that people were asking during an argument about global warming recently.

I decided to go wander over to NOAA, as I seem to remember a while back that their average temperatures differed from northern to southern hemisphere (less people live in the southern hemisphere and there's more water).

I seem to remember before they had a graph showing that the northern hemisphere was primarily being warmed (and driving global average temperatures) while the southern hemisphere hadn't been changing too much. But now the graph appears to show southern hemisphere temperatures have increased as well (though not as much)

Interestingly, they also have a figure showing that anywhere there isn't land in the polar regions is actually getting COLDER. Either that or they don't have data, but the colors look like what's on the scale legend.





Text states: Linear trend for global temperatures from 1901 to 2005 (left: C per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right: C per decade). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce viable trends. The minimum number of years needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years from 1901 to 2005 and 18 years for 1979 to 2005. An annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC (from Smith and Reynolds 2005). Trends significant at the 5% value are indicated by white + marks.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:15 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Could you put those two graphics under one another? As it is, the text on the right disappears, so I can't read it. Thanx.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:19 AM

BYTEMITE


Can't, that's just one graphic. I could link to the page?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/faqs/climfaq03.html

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:21 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Well done Niki you beat me to the punch on this one. An interesting line from the BBC article:

Quote:

Funding came from a number of sources, including charitable foundations maintained by the Koch brothers, the billionaire US industrialists, who have also donated large sums to organisations lobbying against acceptance of man-made global warming.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071

Damn these treacherous scientists and their non- right-wing conclusions!!

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:25 AM

BYTEMITE


...I also just found in one of the main studies they use to produce their global average temperature calculations that they only include the latitudes between 60 N and 60 S.

That leaves out the cooler water arctic and antarctic regions... While that would not negate the increasing global average temperature trend we've seen, it does suggest that the average temperature normally being cited is just a tad warmer than the actual value. Unless there just isn't data for those latitudes.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:31 AM

BYTEMITE


Hmm. The long term temperature map also suggests that less populated tropical marshy and rainforested areas are also getting cooler. (Or there's no data)

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:44 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Here you go, Byte:





Text states: Linear trend for global temperatures from 1901 to 2005 (left: C per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right: C per decade). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce viable trends. The minimum number of years needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years from 1901 to 2005 and 18 years for 1979 to 2005. An annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC (from Smith and Reynolds 2005). Trends significant at the 5% value are indicated by white + marks.

You can get all this by hitting "reply with quote" then copying the URLs to your previous post. If you wouldn't mind...?


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:46 AM

BYTEMITE


Wow, you went in and edited them? But yeah, they're useful figures, so okay.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:52 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Honey, I used to be a desktop publisher, if you didn't know. I'm a whiz at resizing, uploading, jiggling stuff. Just copied 'em from your post and split 'em in two, then typed the text. So if you'd replace yours with mine in your post, then I can read your text ('cuz the ones you copied are still too big...sorry). Thanx!

(zat big enough? I can make 'em bigger if you want...)


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:54 AM

BYTEMITE


Did so. I used your bigger version, because then people can read the celsius values on the scale. Scientific figures aren't useful without numbers or a scale.

Anyway, that's some good work. I'm impressed.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:55 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


But then I STILL can't read what you wrote! (This is silly, I'll just pass on it, sorry I got 'em too big the first time.)


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, October 21, 2011 7:59 AM

BYTEMITE


Well, *I* thought it was a good job. But then I'm a scientist, I'm usually happy if something gets the idea across.

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Friday, October 21, 2011 9:58 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Thank'ee, m'am, and yes, that's what all the skills are ABOUT. I can't draw, so I get my jollies out of manipulating what others create...scientists are the ones who come up with the important stuff.

Okay, now I can read what you posted. I think you're right that they don't have the data; that seems to be some of what the text is saying. I didn't know it was mostly the northern hemisphere...doesn't look like that in the video I posted. That's interesting.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Sunday, October 23, 2011 8:06 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


I'm surprised that anyone hadn't admitted that the poles are getting warmer. I wouldn't think that would be hard to figure, I should think that everyone knows that. What people disagree on is why and the complexity of the situation, what is atributed to what etc.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Monday, October 24, 2011 3:18 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Well done Niki you beat me to the punch on this one. An interesting line from the BBC article:

Quote:

Funding came from a number of sources, including charitable foundations maintained by the Koch brothers, the billionaire US industrialists, who have also donated large sums to organisations lobbying against acceptance of man-made global warming.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071

Damn these treacherous scientists and their non- right-wing conclusions!!

It's not personal. It's just war.



If the extreme Far Left is going to be funded by govt agencies, then where are those skeptical of the AGW agenda ( and that's exactly what it is ) going to get funding for honest, straight forward science ?

Funny how Soros gets completely ignored for all his agenda driven, socialist promoting activities, but if anyone dares to counter from the Right, they're painted by many as being unethical, devious or up to no good.


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Monday, October 24, 2011 3:36 AM

BYTEMITE


I think there's honest types on both sides and devious types on both sides.

I'm not feeling great today, maybe I should try to avoid providing commentary. EDIT: I ate something and feel slightly better, though I still think perhaps I should try not to overexert myself.

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Monday, October 24, 2011 4:44 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Hope you feel better, Byte. Take care of YOU, yes?


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Monday, October 24, 2011 4:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

That leaves out the cooler water arctic and antarctic regions... While that would not negate the increasing global average temperature trend we've seen, it does suggest that the average temperature normally being cited is just a tad warmer than the actual value. Unless there just isn't data for those latitudes.
The polar regions are warming FASTER than anywhere else. Polar ice and the Greenland ice sheet - stable geological features for hundreds of thousands to millions of years- are disappearing. The permafrost is melting, releasing methane.

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Monday, October 24, 2011 5:11 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Got to the end of the thread. Take care of yourself, Byte, and feel better soon.

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Monday, October 24, 2011 6:56 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

If the extreme Far Left is going to be funded by govt agencies, then where are those skeptical of the AGW agenda ( and that's exactly what it is ) going to get funding for honest, straight forward science ?

Amigo, I've no problem whatsoever with the skeptical scientists doing their own study, and securing whatever independent funding for it that they can. I think it's a very healthy thing. And the conclusions of course were in line with what all the other climate studies have shown; the skeptic professor himself says:

Quote:

"Had we found no global warming, then that would have ruled out AGW," said Prof Muller.

"Had we found half as much, it would have suggested that prior estimates [of AGW] were too large; if we had found more warming, it would have raised the question of whether prior estimates were too low.

"But we didn't; we found that the prior rise was confirmed. That means that we do not directly affect prior estimates."


Maybe you know something he doesn't, Auraptor?

This whole study shows that the truth is there for those that are seriously willing to find it.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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