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Originally posted by Kevin:
I see New York is padding the death numbers by admitting to just adding 2,000+ deaths, because we're New York and we do whatever we want to do.

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Originally posted by Kevin:


In other words...

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I DON'T CARE WHAT TRUMP SAYS. He hosted a reality TV-show, remember? He says whatever he thinks he needs to say to get what he wants done, DONE.

I'm more interested in what HE DOES.

Jeezus, SECONDRATE, are you a dupe of reality TV shows?? You seem to take everything said seriously. ALL Presidents lie. Saint Obama lied, and he lied more consequentially than Trump.

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Originally posted by second:
People lie to me constantly, Signym. I can tolerate lies. My problem is not with lying, but with people who don't make sense. Trump doesn't make sense. Obama did. Trump is criminally incompetent.

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Obama wasn't. Trump is disorganized, fat, lazy and loquacious. Obama wasn't.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by second:
People lie to me constantly, Signym. I can tolerate lies. My problem is not with lying, but with people who don't make sense. Trump doesn't make sense. Obama did. Trump is criminally incompetent.

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How would you know? You never pay attention to what he does.

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Obama wasn't. Trump is disorganized, fat, lazy and loquacious. Obama wasn't.

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Since all you ever post about is what Trump says, or tweets, or what other people say he says, or tweets, how would you know about anything else?

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:

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Originally posted by Kevin:
I see New York is padding the death numbers by admitting to just adding 2,000+ deaths, because we're New York and we do whatever we want to do.

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Originally posted by Kevin:


In other words...

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"In other words" means you have to restate your original post because it wasn't true. So you admit that it's not about NY doing 'whatever we want to do' just because it's NY.

And I just thought I'd mention - those annual deaths due to 'the' flu that the CDC publishes that you believe, are made up out of thin air.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I DON'T CARE WHAT TRUMP SAYS. He hosted a reality TV-show, remember? He says whatever he thinks he needs to say to get what he wants done, DONE.

I'm more interested in what HE DOES.

Jeezus, SECONDRATE, are you a dupe of reality TV shows?? You seem to take everything said seriously. ALL Presidents lie. Saint Obama lied, and he lied more consequentially than Trump.

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Trump says he is fighting a war against Covid-19. How stupid is Trump's war strategy? We can find out by comparing Trump's country to Vietnam:

In Vietnam, There Have Been Fewer Than 300 COVID-19 Cases And No Deaths. Here's Why

April 16, 2020

Vietnam shares a border with China, yet it has reported no deaths from COVID-19 and just 268 confirmed cases, when other Southeast Asian nations are reporting thousands.

Experts say experience dealing with prior pandemics, early implementation of aggressive social distancing policies, strong action from political leaders and the muscle of a one-party authoritarian state have helped Vietnam.

"They had political commitment early on at the highest level," says John MacArthur, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's country representative in neighboring Thailand. "And that political commitment went from central level all the way down to the hamlet level."

With experience gained from dealing with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 bird flu pandemics, Vietnam's government started organizing its response in January — as soon as reports from Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated, began trickling in. The country quickly came up with a variety of tactics, including widespread quarantining and aggressive contact tracing. It has also won praise for its transparency in dealing with the crisis from the World Health Organization and the CDC.

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc recently characterized Vietnam's efforts as the "spring general offensive of 2020," a reference to the 1968 Tet Offensive that many claim helped turn the tide of the Vietnam War.

Tens of thousands have been put in quarantine camps. By the end of March, Vietnam had banned all international and domestic flights. The government locked down the country on April 1. State-run media say the current social distancing and stay-at-home orders are to be extended for at least another week.

Those who break the rules in this one-party Communist state are treated harshly. One man was jailed on a nine-month sentence for failing to wear a mask.

Streets normally buzzing with motorcycles and cars are almost empty in most large cities. As the economic toll of the lockdown becomes apparent, some entrepreneurs are stepping up to help. One has provided "rice ATMs" to dispense free rice to those who are out of work.

Some may still be skeptical of Vietnam's relatively low COVID-19 case numbers. The CDC's MacArthur is not.

"Our team up in Hanoi is working very, very closely with their Ministry of Health counterparts," he says. "The communications I've had with my Vietnam team is that at this point in time [they] don't have any indication that those numbers are false."

www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/16/835748673/in-
vietnam-there-have-been-fewer-than-300-covid-19-cases-and-no-deaths-heres-why

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

More evidence that Second doesn't give a single shit about the Constitution and that he's a Communist.

Keep posting buddy.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You just applauded a government that shuts everything down at gunpoint.

Shut up, Commie. Your opinion is invalid.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You just applauded a government that shuts everything down at gunpoint.

Shut up, Commie. Your opinion is invalid.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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6ix, the GOP is a death cult./b]

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Jesus Christ, you're an idiot.

No it's not. My Republican Governor shut Indiana down way before all but the most Democrat run shitholes did.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Jesus Christ, you're an idiot.

No it's not. My Republican Governor shut Indiana down way before all but the most Democrat run shitholes did.

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Your Indiana governor can't make up his mind? He doesn't want to declare martial law to really shut down Indiana and he doesn't want to tell everyone go to work, so he choose Trump's chicken-heart way of avoiding responsibility. This pandemic is the best example yet that Donald Trump is the Wizard of Oz, and there’s nothing behind the curtain.

Trump’s name will, in a break with all previous practice, appear on the checks that will slightly mitigate the Donald Trump depression caused by the Donald Trump pandemic. Hey, we’re supposed to put his name on everything, right?

The operative word, however, is “slightly.” Those $1,200 checks, it turns out, are only a small fraction of the rescue package Congress passed a few weeks ago. And the CARES Act, in turn, fell far short of meeting the nation’s needs.

Given the scale of the economic carnage — 22 million jobs lost in four weeks — we need another huge relief program, both to limit financial hardship and to avoid economic damage that will persist even when the pandemic fades.

But we may not get the program we need, because anti-government ideologues, who briefly got quiet as the magnitude of the Covid-19 shock became apparent, are back to their usual tricks.

If there’s a silver lining to all this, it is that the people sabotaging our response to Covid-19 economics may also be sabotaging their own political future. Trump is, after all, counting on rapid economic recovery to erase public memories of his disastrous handling of the pandemic itself. Yet he and his allies in the Senate are making such a recovery much less likely.

More at www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/opinion/trump-coronavirus-economy.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by second:
The pressure on Trump for scapegoats is strong.

Trump, Aides Float ‘Chinese Lab’ Theory on Origins of Coronavirus

President Donald Trump and some of his officials are flirting with an outlier theory that the new coronavirus was set loose on the world by a Chinese lab that let it escape.

Trump failed to live up to his early promises to have ample testing, a key factor in containing disease. The U.S. still struggles to supply hospitals, front-line workers and patients with necessities in a climate of confusion spilling into chaos.

www.snopes.com/ap/2020/04/16/trump-aides-float-chinese-lab-theory-on-o
rigins-of-coronavirus/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We all know you're all for full on Martial Law with a shoot first ask questions later policy.

You are a Communist.

You don't have to keep repeating yourself. We know, we know.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Dude. Look at your posts everyday. You're gross.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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IT'S POSITIVELY ALPINE!


The screenshots began to circulate on Delhi WhatsApp groups last week, captioned with varying expressions of disbelief. Having checked the air quality index, something of a sadistic morning ritual among residents of India’s capital, most could not believe their eyes.

Gone was the familiar menacing red banner, indicating how each intake of breath is really just a toxic blast on the lungs, replaced instead by a healthy, cheerful green. Could it really be that Delhi’s pollution levels now fell into the category of … “good”? “It’s positively alpine!” exclaimed one message.

A nationwide lockdown imposed across India on 24 March to stop the spread of the coronavirus – the largest lockdown of its kind attempted anywhere – has led to widespread chaos and suffering, especially among the country’s 300 million poor. Yet in Delhi, the world’s most polluted city, it has also resulted in some of the freshest air the capital has seen in decades.

It is a lockdown silver lining being repeated across the world, as toxic megacities such as Bangkok, Beijing, São Paulo and Bogotá, where varying coronavirus restrictions have been imposed, all reported an unprecedented decline in pollution. Yet it is countered with one cruel irony: with most residents of these cities strictly confined to their homes, few have any way to appreciate this newly fresh air, except through an open window or a during speedy trip to the supermarket.

In Delhi, air quality index (AQI) levels are usually a severe 200 on a good day (anything above 25 is deemed unsafe by World Health Organization). During peak pollution periods last year they soared well into a life-threatening 900 and sometimes off the measurable scale. But as Delhi’s 11m registered cars were taken off the roads and factories and construction were ground to a halt, AQI levels have regularly fallen below 20. The skies are suddenly a rare, piercing blue. Even the birdsong seems louder.

Dr Shashi Tharoor, a politician and author who has been vocal on environmental issues, said he hoped that it was a wake-up call. “The blissful sight of blue skies and the joy of breathing clean air provides just the contrast to illustrate what we are doing to ourselves the rest of the time,” said Tharoor. “Today the typical Delhi AQI hovers around 30 and one blissful afternoon, after a spurt of rain, it dropped to 7.”

“Seven,” Tharoor exclaimed again in disbelief. “In Delhi! Pure joy!”.

Tharoor’s sister Smita, who was visiting from the UK when the lockdown was imposed and found herself stuck in Delhi, was equally effusive. As someone with asthma, she said the city’s air, normally thick with pollution, was usually a health nightmare. But now: “The air is clear, the skies are blue. I see the evening stars with clarity and hear the chirruping of excited birds at this unexpected bonus they have received.”

While India’s powerful car lobby has long disputed that cars are a major cause of Delhi’s pollution, Sunita Narain, director of the Centre for Science and Environment, said the lockdown and resulting rapid drop in pollution showed once and for all just what a polluting role vehicles had in the city.

Narain also stressed that while she wished Delhi was like this “all the time”, adding: “I don’t want people to say ‘Oh, environmentalists are celebrating this lockdown:’ we are not. This is not the solution. But whatever the new normal is post-Covid-19, we have to make sure we take this breath of fresh air and think about the serious efforts we need to deal with pollution in Delhi.”

It is not just Delhi experiencing the clearest skies in years. As pollution dropped to its lowest level in three decades this week this week, residents of Jalandhar in Punjab woke up to an incredible sight in the distance: the Dhauladhar mountain range in Himachal Pradesh. The peaks, which are over 120 miles away, had not been sighted on the Punjab horizon for almost 30 years.

It is the absence of cars on some of the world’s most congested roads that seems to be making the most crucial differences. Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, which only last month had closed schools because the pollution got so bad, has experienced a similar transformation in the air since partial lockdown, mainly due to the fall in road traffic. “We can see quite a big gap between the air quality standard that we have [compared with this time last year],” says Tara Buakamsri, Thailand director for Greenpeace.

But residents of Bangkok lamented how the places to enjoy the fresh air were swiftly disappearing. Playgrounds, sporting grounds and even parks, a rare source of solace in the bustling, intensely urban environs of Bangkok, have all now been shut. “I feel sad for the old people who use the park to hang out and meet friends. I think they will be so sad at home,” said Nantawan Wangudomsuk, 31, a producer who used to run in the parks.

Across South America’s most populous city of São Paulo, ground zero of Brazil’s brewing coronavirus crisis, notorious traffic queues and smoggy horizons are also giving way to calm streets and clearer skies.

During weekday rush-hour, downtown São Paulo’s João Goulart elevated highway – nicknamed Minhocão, the Big Worm – normally heaves with traffic as thousands of cars cram four narrow lanes and beeping motorbikes weave through daringly small spaces. But with the city’s coronavirus lockdown, Minhocão now resembles a small-town avenue instead of a major road in a metropolis of 12 million people.

“The air is certainly better,” said Daniel Guth,an urban mobility consultant. “I’ve felt the improvement in air quality both as a cyclist and as a quarantined citizen,” he laughed. “We should use this as a moment to reflect on what transport methods we should prioritise when this crisis is over.”

Despite being under lockdown, many Paulistas, as the city’s residents are known, are still finding ways to enjoy the cleaner air, taking to windows and apartment balconies for nightly pot-banging protests against Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly dismissed the coronavirus as just “a little flu”.

Bogotá, the sprawling mountaintop capital of Colombia, is also usually choking with traffic so bad that officials occasionally ban cars for entire days. But since the nationwide coronavirus quarantine took hold on 24 March, exhaust fumes have fallen as the city ground to a halt. Yet the newly fresh air has been taunting Bogotá’s residents, who are allowed to leave home only for food and medicines, not even a daily dose of outdoor exercise. “Without a doubt this pandemic is helping us improve air quality,” said Carolina Urrutia, Bogotá’s district environment secretary. “With the city shut down, we are able to focus our efforts on other environmental factors.”
Empty avenue in Cali, Colombia, on April 1.

Cali, Colombia’s third city and usually a smokey, congested metropolis, has also been spared from the usual forest fires, allowing residents to breathe fresher air. “The thick cloud that usually hangs over us has been lifted,” said Christian Camilo Villa, an air quality activist and Cali resident. “The concern is that it will return when the quarantine ends.”

Indeed, the fear among environmentalists and residents is that, rather than attempting to maintain the low levels of pollution in the world’s biggest capitals, when industry and cars kick back into action post-lockdown, the situation will go back to square one, and perhaps even worsen, as people and industry attempt to make up for the lost months.

The signs from China, which is coming out of the other side of the coronavirus outbreak and where lockdowns are loosening up, are not positive. For the first four weeks after the Chinese new year holiday in late January, when the coronavirus outbreak was at its worst, pollution levels fell 25% across the country. But since early March, levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution have begun to inch back up as the country gets back to work with factories, businesses and power plants re-opening and traffic returning.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said: “The big question is whether government stimulus measures lead to pollution levels rebounding above the levels before the crisis, like happened after the 2008 financial crisis.”

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Originally posted by JO753:
Trump powerful. Very very strong and powerful. Sum very big wordz. Everybudy sez so. Nobudy saw this kuming. Shameful reporterz must bow to worship Trump. They no theyre fake newz. Foucci. Kloroquin. Nuthing to looz. Powerful steps taken by very very very strong Trump.

- an exerpt frum a press breifing.

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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Originally posted by JO753:
Trump powerful. Very very strong and powerful. Sum very big wordz. Everybudy sez so. Nobudy saw this kuming. Shameful reporterz must bow to worship Trump. They no theyre fake newz. Foucci. Kloroquin. Nuthing to looz. Powerful steps taken by very very very strong Trump.

- an exerpt frum a press breifing.

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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Originally posted by JO753:

3. The fatality rate iz about 3.4%. That meanz that if you get it, you are 34x more likely to kik the buket than if you got the flu insted.
4. The saturation iz about .05%.

So if you multiply the fatality number by 200 if it wuz at the same saturation level az the flu, its 7,354,600 ded Americanz so far and on its way to 11,900,000.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
SECOND

There are some VERY big assumptions in your quoted figures.

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Your post looks at the absolute best possible scenario. It doesn't cover the range of how badly things could go if these assumptions turn out to not be true.

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
SECOND


And finally, your assumption is that in our 'greatest' medical system on the planet, people will be able to afford whatever treatment might work. I can imagine the price being quite high when it comes out on the market. And Remdesivir or equivalent only works if you can get it, and get it early enough to make a difference. I'd bet you ain't seen insurance haggling like you will with an expensive new treatment.

Your post looks at the absolute best possible scenario. It doesn't cover the range of how badly things could go if these assumptions turn out to not be true.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

SECOND:
So, assuming 1000 new deaths per day for two weeks (which is probably an underestimation) we get 14,000 deaths over the next two weeks
The CURRENT death toll is 38,200 for the USA.
So (38,200 + 14,000) X 85 = 4.44 MILLION deaths until herd immunity.

Well, if you don't like my forward projection of death from the current rate of infection, how about we just go with current deaths?
38,200 X 85 = 3.25 MILLION

Hmmm... better, but not great.
Math. It works.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND- YOU don't do math. YOUR feelings are hurt. Stop pretending that you care about anything other than your own butt-hurt, willya?

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI has been posting (when numbers are being quoted) since forever that "A factor of X60 may apply" which was a pretty damn good guess, since the Santa Clara study estimates a factor of 50-80 undercount.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Avigan ingredient shortage hits Japan stockpile plan
Lack of element from China spurs to push to find domestic suppliers

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI has been posting (when numbers are being quoted) since forever that "A factor of X60 may apply" which was a pretty damn good guess, since the Santa Clara study estimates a factor of 50-80 undercount.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Originally posted by 1KIKI:
It was based on a UCLA study that looked at infection rate in China, and the number of infected that came here to the US before any airport screenings or travel restrictions were put in place; and an estimate of unimpeded, undetected community spread from them. They were pretty spot-on.

ETA: I did post the link, but it would be a chore digging it out from wherever I put it.

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Thursday, March 12, 2020 5:43 PM
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=13
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/study-estimates-covid-19-may-hav
e-infected-over-9000-in-us/

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Meanwhile, in reality...

Trump's ratings aren't falling at all.

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