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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
Will religion become extinct?
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:24 AM
NIKI2
Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...
Quote:Organized religion will all but vanish eventually from nine Western-style democracies, a team of mathematicians predict in a new paper based on census data stretching back 100 years. It won't die out completely, but "religion will be driven toward extinction" in countries including Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands, they say. It will also wither away in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland, they anticipate. They can't make a prediction about the United States because the U.S. census doesn't ask about religion, lead author Daniel Abrams told CNN. But nine other countries provide enough data for detailed mathematical modeling, he said. "If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said. "We start with two big assumptions based on sociology," he explained. The first is that it's more attractive to be part of the majority than the minority, so as religious affiliation declines, it becomes more popular not to be a churchgoer than to be one, he said - what Abrams calls the majority effect. "People are more likely to switch to groups with more members," he said. Social networks can have a powerful influence, he said. "Just a few connections to people who are (religiously) unaffiliated is enough to drive the effect," he said. The other assumption underlying the prediction is that there are social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline - what Abrams calls the utility effect. "The utility of being unaffiliated seems to be higher than affiliated in Western democracies," he said. Abrams and his co-authors are not passing any judgment on religion, he's quick to say - they're just modeling a prediction based on trends. "We're not trying to make any commentary about religion or whether people should be religious or not," he said. "I became interested in this because I saw survey data results for the U.S. and was surprised by how large the unaffiliated group was," he said, referring to a number of studies done by universities and think tanks on trends in religion. Studies suggest that "unaffiliated" is the fastest-growing religious group in the United States, with about 15% of the population falling into a category experts call the "nones." They're not necessarily atheists or non-believers, experts say, just people who do not associate themselves with a particular religion or house of worship at the time of the survey. Abrams had done an earlier study looking into the extinction of languages spoken by small numbers of people. When he saw the religion data, his co-author "Richard Wiener suggested we try to apply a similar technique to religious affiliation," Abrams said. The paper, by Abrams, Wiener and Haley A. Yaple, is called "A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation." They presented it this week at the Dallas meeting of the American Physical Society. Only the Czech Republic already has a majority of people who are unaffiliated with religion, but the Netherlands, for example, will go from about 40% unaffiliated today to more than 70% by 2050, they expect. Even deeply Catholic Ireland will see religion die out, the model predicts. "They've gone from 0.04% unaffiliated in 1961 to 4.2% in 2006, our most recent data point," Abrams says. He admits that the increase in Muslim immigration to Europe may throw off the model, but he thinks the trend is robust enough to withstand some challenges. "Netherlands data goes back to 1860," he pointed out. "Every single data that we were able to find shows that people are moving from the affiliated to unaffiliated. I can't imagine that will change, but that's personal opinion, not what the data shows." But Barry Kosmin, a demographer of religion at Trinity College in Connecticut, is doubtful. "Religion relies on human beings. They aren't rational or predictable according to the laws of physics. Religious fervor waxes and wanes in unpredictable ways," he said. "The Jewish tradition that says prophecy is for fools and children is probably wise," he added. And Abrams, Wiener and Yaple are not the first to predict the end of religion. Peter Berger, a former president of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, once said that, "People will become so bored with what religious groups have to offer that they will look elsewhere." He said Protestantism "has reached the strange state of self-liquidation," that Catholicism was in severe crisis, and anticipated that "religions are likely to survive in small enclaves and pockets" in the United States. He made those predictions in February 1968.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:39 AM
KANEMAN
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 10:07 AM
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 10:39 AM
MOCKROMANCER
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 12:01 PM
DREAMTROVE
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 2:02 PM
KWICKO
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 2:07 PM
HARDWARE
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 3:05 PM
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 3:21 PM
THEHAPPYTRADER
Quote:Originally posted by Kwicko: Will religion become extinct? God willing.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 8:38 PM
RIONAEIRE
Beir bua agus beannacht
Thursday, March 24, 2011 2:49 AM
Quote:Originally posted by RionaEire: I think that humans were basically hardwired to believe in something, to seek truth in what they see and experience, to ask cosmic questions like why we're here etc. Some people may not appear interested in these things at all times, but I think if push came to shove even the people who are normally uninterested in such things would look for something to believe in, to hope towards. Maybe not everyone, but most people. "A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya
Thursday, March 24, 2011 4:52 AM
Quote:Originally posted by RionaEire: Europe is a bit screwed up right now, morally and otherwise, so I wouldn't look to their trends as something to emulate. I think that humans were basically hardwired to believe in something, to seek truth in what they see and experience, to ask cosmic questions like why we're here etc. Some people may not appear interested in these things at all times, but I think if push came to shove even the people who are normally uninterested in such things would look for something to believe in, to hope towards. Maybe not everyone, but most people. No, I don't think that religeon will come to an end. The point about more info being out there made sense, that if people know about lots of theories and religeons they have more choices so we see a wider variety of afiliations. "A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya
Thursday, March 24, 2011 8:43 AM
PHOENIXROSE
You think you know--what's to come, what you are. You haven't even begun.
Quote:Originally posted by RionaEire: I think that humans were basically hardwired to believe in something, to seek truth in what they see and experience, to ask cosmic questions like why we're here etc.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 8:51 AM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 9:40 AM
LILI
Doing it backwards. Walking up the downslide.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 10:10 AM
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: I wasn't aware Science and Religion were meant to be mutually exclusive
Thursday, March 24, 2011 10:23 AM
BYTEMITE
Thursday, March 24, 2011 12:26 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 12:28 PM
Quote:Originally posted by dreamtrove: Quote:Originally posted by RionaEire: Europe is a bit screwed up right now, morally and otherwise, so I wouldn't look to their trends as something to emulate. I think that humans were basically hardwired to believe in something, to seek truth in what they see and experience, to ask cosmic questions like why we're here etc. Some people may not appear interested in these things at all times, but I think if push came to shove even the people who are normally uninterested in such things would look for something to believe in, to hope towards. Maybe not everyone, but most people. No, I don't think that religeon will come to an end. The point about more info being out there made sense, that if people know about lots of theories and religeons they have more choices so we see a wider variety of afiliations. "A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya I concur. I think religion is about to hit Europe in a major way and save it from itself, or TPTB. That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 12:29 PM
Quote:Originally posted by LiLi: Quote:Originally posted by Kwicko: Will religion become extinct? God willing. Facts are stubborn things.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 12:31 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 1:32 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 5:28 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 5:50 PM
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: I wonder how often that happens? Perhaps this examples like this are why that percentage of religious folks felt atheists were a mite hostile...
Thursday, March 24, 2011 5:52 PM
Quote:Originally posted by PhoenixRose: I sure hope that science is an acceptable something to believe in and use to seek truth in what I see and experience, because it's the only thing I've found that works for that.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 5:57 PM
Quote:Originally posted by Kwicko: 'Cause, y'know, religion would NEVER attack science, right? Right?
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:01 PM
Quote:Originally posted by Bytemite: I suppose this conversation has reached a point where I must admit I'm an atheist and a scientist. Before we commence open warfare, I would like to negotiate my own neutrality, mostly because I want to peg people with some water balloons. And you think you'll expect it because I just told you. But you won't.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:03 PM
MAGONSDAUGHTER
Quote:Originally posted by RionaEire: Europe is a bit screwed up right now, morally and otherwise, so I wouldn't look to their trends as something to emulate.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:06 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:08 PM
Quote:Originally posted by dreamtrove: Quote:Originally posted by PhoenixRose: I sure hope that science is an acceptable something to believe in and use to seek truth in what I see and experience, because it's the only thing I've found that works for that. PR, science makes decent personal models (scientology) but terrible social ones (fascism). Solve problems with science, but live with faith.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:09 PM
Quote:Originally posted by dreamtrove: Actually, a minority of the world's religions believe in prayer and hell. Quote:Originally posted by Bytemite: I suppose this conversation has reached a point where I must admit I'm an atheist and a scientist. Before we commence open warfare, I would like to negotiate my own neutrality, mostly because I want to peg people with some water balloons. And you think you'll expect it because I just told you. But you won't. You just haven't met the right god yet ;) That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: Quote:Originally posted by Kwicko: 'Cause, y'know, religion would NEVER attack science, right? Right? Exactly, though I wouldn't put that kind of behavior past a few religious people, atheists, or scientists. We can speak of hypotheticals and list all manner of examples presumably from personal experiences and the like, but I'd like to point out that right here, right now, in this thread, religious people of RWED are not attacking science or scientists. Can the same be said of the atheists? I appreciate that, for the most part, y'all don't seem to hold our differences concerning religion against me, but there is not shortage of vitriol aimed at Christianity in general and no one seems to have a problem with it. I don't let it bother me, that's just kinda how the internet seems to work. I just wanted to point out that for all the supposed 'aggressive Christians' that are out there, you don't see much of that here in RWED... Seem's like the atheist are more aggressive
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:13 PM
Quote:The fact that you find it difficult to hear people express their views on religion
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:18 PM
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: I disagree with some of what you've said from a scientific standpoint (not religious) but this sounds a mite emotional...
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:29 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:40 PM
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: Quote:The fact that you find it difficult to hear people express their views on religion Oh really? I wasn't aware. Are Australians psychic too?
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:41 PM
Quote:Originally posted by TheHappyTrader: It's not about your life. I was just going to remark that I think it's a little early to mock our "poor design" when we're still just beginning to discover how it really works, especially concerning the brain.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:48 PM
DMAANLILEILTT
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:49 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:50 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:55 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 6:57 PM
Quote:All that being said, there are a lot of pretty amazing things about living organisms. Stunning, really. I just don't think they're unexplainable, and the explanations fill me with all the more joy and awe for being something other than, "It's magic."
Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:02 PM
Quote:Originally posted by Bytemite: To be fair to guys, Cowper's cleans out the urea and neutralizes the pH generally before the gametes are released.
Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:13 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:14 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:24 PM
Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:33 PM
Friday, March 25, 2011 4:24 AM
Friday, March 25, 2011 1:29 PM
Quote:Originally posted by Mockromancer: Stupid posts do not exist.That, minds too small to comprehend the genius contained within do exist, is true. It is a shame they are not as elusive as bigfoot. Minds this closed should never be seen or heard, at least not in this dimension. peace out.
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