Opening weekend bets by reginaroadie

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Opening weekend bets

POSTED BY: REGINAROADIE
UPDATED: Sunday, September 25, 2005 12:02
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VIEWED: 5116
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Monday, September 12, 2005 7:16 PM

Hey all.

I was just surfing around boxofficemojo.com (a great site that deals with opening weekends and film grosses) and it got me to thinking about the BDM, and what we could expect for an opening weekend.

Obviously, we're not going to get a REVENGE OF THE SITH size opening weekend ($50,013,859 opening day, $108,435,841 overall). But considering the anticipation for the film (which thankfully isn't so overblown that if it were to get a $40 million opening, it would actually be considered a dissapointment) as well as the regular grosses of that time (late Sept, early Oct), I would place the opening for the movie at say a $30 to $35 million range.

Consider these factors. The top opening weekend grosses for a Sept. release are SWEET HOME ALABAMA ($35,648,740), RUSH HOUR ($33,001,803) and this weekend's shot in the arm THE EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE ($30,054,300). This last one is good news because it shows that general audiences can turn out in droves for a genre pic that shows some sembalance of originality, as well as increase general attendance, which has been a major concern this year (although personally, I think it's just a temporary thing. Every business goes through lag years, why should this be any different?). I'm a little unclear as to whether or not SERENITY would be considered a Sept release or an October release, since it's weekend is Sept 30th to Oct 2nd. Looking at Oct releases, we have SCARY MOVIE 3 ($48,113,770), SHARK TALE ($47,604,606), THE GRUDGE ($39,128,715) and RED DRAGON ($36,540,945). Considering the kind of movies that open around this time period, I'd say we have a reasonable chance to match and quite possibly exceed these records.

What could possibly hurt us are the movies that are opening around the BDM. We have a Reese "Sellout" Witherspoon romantic comedy (JUST LIKE HEAVEN), two stop motion animation films that general audiences have been itching to se for years (TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE, WALLACE AND GROMIT: THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT), A Nic Cage (LORD OF WAR) and a Jodie Foster (FLIGHTPLAN) film, two limited release films going wide on the 30th that are helmed by auteurs (OLIVER TWIST and A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE), an ispirational sports film from Disney (THE GREATEST GAME EVER PLAYED) and a Cameron Diaz film directed by Curtis Hanson (IN HER SHOES). They, as well as other numerous limited release films, go after similar demographics that SERENITY is after as well.

Hopefully, SERENITY will once again beat the odds and become the rags to riches Hollywood success story that we've been dreaming about for the last three years.

As I've said before, I'm calling it at $30 to $35 million. With hopefully a %25 or less decrease for the 2nd weekend, even though genre pics usually lose half their audience the 2nd time around.

Agree/disagree/comments?

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
XANDER: (baby-talk) Who's a little fear demon?
C'mon, who's a lit-tle fear demon?
GILES: Don't taunt the fear demon.
XANDER: Why? Can he hurt me?
GILES: No, it's just… tacky.

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Monday, September 12, 2005 8:15 PM

N0SKILLZ

I'm not sure on what it'll take in... but whatever HSX.com puts up as teh call or put. i plan on calling whatever number they put up there... Cause it should make tons...

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 12:57 AM

ANNIE

Lord of War doesn't worry me, it will be in its' third week; however, Corpse Bride worries me very much, as it will onlt be in its' second weekend and I have seen commercials for that all over the airwaves. I have only seen 2 Serenity commercials off sci-fi network. A 20 to 30 mill opening would be thrilling, and I am keeping all digits crossed anxiously and pimping the film to everyone I see.

Sex and violence on the big screen, where it belongs.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 2:09 AM

EVILMIKE

It is encouraging to look at similar movies from the past few years.

Last year, The Forgotten managed a $21mil opening on its way towards $67mil / 117 mil.

Likewise, Resident Evil: Apocalypse pulled in $23m / $51m / $129m.

Underworld came in at $21m / $51m / $93m.

All three movies came out the same time of the year as Serenity and all three made the rumored targets that Universal has to greenlight a sequel.

There is one cautionary note -- Sky Captain and the world of Tomorrow only pulled in $15m / $37m / $57m.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 2:29 AM

WILDHEAVENFARM

One bar of handmade goat milk soap says $40mil. I'm counting on my rabid brethren to see it multiple times, which seems fairly likely.

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 3:41 AM

PIZMOBEACH

... fully loaded, safety off...

Quote:
Originally posted by reginaroadie:
Hey all.

I was just surfing around boxofficemojo.com (a great site that deals with opening weekends and film grosses) and it got me to thinking about the BDM, and what we could expect for an opening weekend...

... Consider these factors. The top opening weekend grosses for a Sept. release are SWEET HOME ALABAMA ($35,648,740), RUSH HOUR ($33,001,803) and this weekend's shot in the arm THE EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE ($30,054,300)...Looking at Oct releases, we have SCARY MOVIE 3 ($48,113,770), SHARK TALE ($47,604,606), THE GRUDGE ($39,128,715) and RED DRAGON ($36,540,945). As I've said before, I'm calling it at $30 to $35 million. With hopefully a %25 or less decrease for the 2nd weekend, even though genre pics usually lose half their audience the 2nd time around.

I did a similar search and compare at mojo recently - I think both of our lists are flawed slightly.
Mine: I didn't search on Sept. Oct. release dates, just movies that opened over the last 4 months in a similar number of theaters. I don't "know" how many Serenity will open in but I've seen the number 2500 used by people that seem to know.
Yours: I think you need to consider just that, how many theaters Serenity will release in. A number of the movies listed above opened in a lot more theaters than Serenity (if 2500 is accurate), from 500 to 800 more - that just has to make a difference.

Emily Rose numbers are impressive but there really isn't any thing else out right now (I could be mistaken but a search of our local Niska mega movie-plex shows nadda).

FWIW: I searched from April 8th weekend up to last weekend in August for movies opening in 2500 theaters:

High 23
Average 12.75
Low 5

The one that I thought was the most similar:
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
(3,133 theaters)
21.1

Not trying to be a killjoy! I just don't want to heap too many expectations on the BDM (and I work better with low expectations AND THEN talking serious smack). If Serenity does 20 million that would be pretty darn good. 25 mil and up is serious who's your daddy double redemption.

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.net

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 4:25 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

I have found that Box Office trends towards halving itself from week to week. I also estimate that this film needs to pull in a total of 60 million in order to pay for production and advertising costs.

Thus, we need the film to start at about 30 million in the first week.

30 million week 1
+15 million week 2
+07 million week 3
+03 million week 4
+01 million week 5
+00 million week 6 (on to DVD, out of theatre)
-------------------
56 million total domestic take

Now, 56 million will almost pay for all production and advertising, leaving the Worldwide take and DVD sales to push it over into profitability.

I think this is the most conservative estimate that will assure that the franchise is considered profitable, and thus worthy of sequels.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 5:30 AM

NIKNAK

Nevermind all the mathematics just have a guess and in October we'll see who wins.

I'm going to be optimistic and bet $41 million.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 6:25 AM

PIZMOBEACH

... fully loaded, safety off...

Quote:
Originally posted by niknak:
Nevermind all the mathematics just have a guess and in October we'll see who wins.

I'm going to be optimistic and bet $41 million.

Heh heh - "might have to use some of that math we been hearin' about..." Based on that I'm going to be very optimistic and say $30 million. I hope you're right though!

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.net

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 6:54 AM

LADYSHELLEY

My bet is a $32 million open (just because nothing else of worth is opening that weekend.) I think Mirror Mask will be the only real competition, but it is even more genra than we are, so it's won't be a threat. I think we will take our opening weekend easily, and will hold a strong second weekend.

I can easily see the film with legs through the November holiday blitz which should get us to the $80 million mark before international box office is figured, and we may last into early December.

The bigger question I have is what are the guarentees from Universal for the sequels. I know they've said they want an $80 mill. return but is that to think about the possiblity of maybe doing a sequel some time, or has there been more offical rumblings from Hollyweird? (the cast being optioned doesn't say much. As an example Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World another niche kinda film also had it's actors optioned for a sequel but it's never happened and they had a good box and great DVD sales.

Lady Shelley
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.redhawke.org

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 7:29 AM

BROWNCOAT1

May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.

I am going on record as saying the BDM will bring in 35.5 million in the opening weekend.

__________________________________________

"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."

Richmond, VA & surrounding area Firefly Fans:

http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/richmondbrowncoats/

http://www.richmondbrowncoats.org

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 8:06 AM

NAKEDANDARTICULATE

"dear budda i wish for 30-40 million opening weekend and a plastic rocket...."

"It's about how much freedom you can take away from somebody before they either fold or fight," Whedon says. "It's about the right to be wrong and the nature of human beings, that they need the freedom to be wrong. That they cannot be made to be better or perfect."--Joss Whedon on Serenity

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 8:24 AM

SIMONWHO

If we get a $20m opening weekend, we're almost guaranteed to get our sequel. Personally I think Universal will even give us a second shot if we come close (say $70m worldwide) if the DVD sales indicate that the browncoat fever has spread.

So I'm just going to say $20m and hope for more.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 8:54 AM

HJERMSTED

My non-scientific predictions...

9/16:
Corpse Bride (select cities) $10-15 million

9/23:
Corpse Bride (wide) $40-50 million

9/30:
Corpse Bride $30-35 million
Serenity $28-32 million

10/7
Serenity $20-25 million (but edging out...)
Corpse Bride $20-25 million

Can't wait to see how close these predictions are!

mattro

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 9:06 AM

ABILITY6

Quote:
Not trying to be a killjoy! I just don't want to heap too many expectations on the BDM (and I work better with low expectations AND THEN talking serious smack). If Serenity does 20 million that would be pretty darn good. 25 mil and up is serious who's your daddy double redemption.

I would have to agree with this assessment, as much as it pains me, based on the lack, IMHO, of mass media (network television

) exposure thus far. However, I also believe that this movie will buck current trends and actually has a chance to pick up positive word of mouth momentum AFTER release, so I also remain hopeful for sequels, superstardom, television Christmas specials and such.

"Yolanda?"

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 9:13 AM

ZEEK

I'd put us in the $20-$25 million range.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 9:51 AM

CHOLLETT

As far as the lack of media about it up until recently, i'd agree, but now i'm starting to see the TV spots. Disregard the fact that i flip to channels FOR THE COMMERCIAL BREAKS NOW. The first time i saw it, my reaction was: "Oh, cool. The TV spot. ..........(eyes widen) OMG THE TV SPOT!"

Judge the amount of media coverage in about 2 weeks. Then we'll see.

Anyhow, i think somewhere between $20 and $30 million is a good guess. If Emily Rose can make 30, so can we. The difference here is the following weeks. Hopefully the opening weekend will be decent enough to keep it in most theatres, and i think Serenity will stand out by dropping week to week MUCH less than other films, thanks to repeat viewings, and WoM from people who see it weekend 1 drawing others in.

I'm babbling like a moonbrain.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 10:59 AM

BARCLAY

My fellow Browncoats:

Every time someone has questioned the Browncoats, we have answered. Loudly. When they said there was no future of the TV show, we got it released on DVD. When they said nobody would buy it, we did. When they said we wouldn't get a movie, we did. When they said that movie would only go direct-to-DVD, we saw it prepare for wide release. And when they said it wouldn't get any press or ads, we'll we're starting to see they were wrong, too.

I've run the math on other threads and can respect that. But here it is. We are mighty. And we are more mighty than even we have been led to believe.

Serenity opens with 48.2 million domestically.

How do I justify this? All the movies opening around Serenity aren't going to cut into the action/scifi viewer base (with the possible exception of Corpse Bride, which, I have a feeling, stinks, since it's getting released a month before Halloween, and not a day before. This means huge drop-off for that).

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 12:51 PM

WILDHEAVENFARM

Y'all know what could be really fun? A betting pool! Place some little thing (like my bet of a bar of the soap that I make for a living) or one single solitary dollar on the line next to your guess. Winner takes all. What do ya think?

And what was that magic figure the film needs to gross for JW to get the greenlight for the next two?

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 1:43 PM

BARCLAY

Quote:
Originally posted by WildHeavenFarm:
Y'all know what could be really fun? A betting pool! Place some little thing (like my bet of a bar of the soap that I make for a living) or one single solitary dollar on the line next to your guess. Winner takes all. What do ya think?

And what was that magic figure the film needs to gross for JW to get the greenlight for the next two?

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

The best way to do a pool would probably be Paypal. One (trustworthy) person collects all the wagers and then awards the prize. As for the magic figure, it'd be $80mil., and the assumption (it might have been confirmed) that it's a worldwide gross. Not sure how the secondary market works with that.

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 2:12 PM

CHRISISALL

Put me down for 21 mil opening weekend, then 25 mil 2nd weekend!!!!!
Word of mouth will make this movie!!!

Shiny box office Chrisisall

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005 4:21 PM

THUNDAR

I'm afraid gas prices may reduce the overall dollar figure. People that may have gone to see it twice might decide to wait for the DVD, etc.

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Wednesday, September 14, 2005 6:12 AM

PIZMOBEACH

... fully loaded, safety off...

Quote:
Originally posted by Barclay:
Quote:
Originally posted by WildHeavenFarm:
Y'all know what could be really fun? A betting pool! Place some little thing (like my bet of a bar of the soap that I make for a living) or one single solitary dollar on the line next to your guess. Winner takes all. What do ya think?

And what was that magic figure the film needs to gross for JW to get the greenlight for the next two?

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

The best way to do a pool would probably be Paypal. One (trustworthy) person collects all the wagers and then awards the prize.

I would be happy to do this if there's interest.
Here, Here! A bit of sport! How lovely!
Please post if you are interested. I'd say we need 10 people as a base to make it worth starting. $1?, $5?, "All monies raised to be donated to xyz..." "Winner" gets Ultimate Mega Flan Film Seer bragging rights (until the next movie....)

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.net

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Wednesday, September 14, 2005 9:15 AM

CHRISISALL

Quote:
Originally posted by Thundar:
I'm afraid gas prices may reduce the overall dollar figure. People that may have gone to see it twice might decide to wait for the DVD, etc.

I'll hitch to the gorram theatre if I have to. And I think people will make the effort just to see something original, not typical Hollywood crap...

Goin' my way? Chrisisall

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Thursday, September 15, 2005 3:36 AM

PIZMOBEACH

... fully loaded, safety off...

Wow, the people have spoken... very, very softly.
In any event, I still think it would be fun to have a FREE list just for the sake of seeing where people put the opening weekend at 'cuz guessing is fun. So here goes:
http://scifiradio.com/boxoffice.html

I've taken the liberty of adding the estimates from this thread and averaging any that were wide in scope (if someone said 20-30 I entered 25). Feel free to re-enter your estimate if you want to make a change or email me if you want to be removed for any reason - whatever.
admin at scifiradio.net

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.net

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Saturday, September 17, 2005 3:28 PM

FIREFLYGAL

Quote:
Originally posted by pizmobeach:
Wow, the people have spoken... very, very softly.
In any event, I still think it would be fun to have a FREE list just for the sake of seeing where people put the opening weekend at 'cuz guessing is fun. So here goes:
http://scifiradio.com/boxoffice.html

I've taken the liberty of adding the estimates from this thread and averaging any that were wide in scope (if someone said 20-30 I entered 25). Feel free to re-enter your estimate if you want to make a change or email me if you want to be removed for any reason - whatever.
admin at scifiradio.net

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.net]

Bump! And thanks PB for putting up the Orlando Shindig, mighty shiny of you

I aim to misbehave!

Firefly items:
For lapel pins and badge holder lanyards
e-mail FireflyGal1@hotmail.com
www.cafepress.com/fillies
www.cafepress.com/fireflyflan

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Saturday, September 17, 2005 3:32 PM

FIREFLYGAL

Just deleted a ruttin double post

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Saturday, September 17, 2005 6:36 PM

TUDYKRAWKS

i'd say it will open at #2 w/$22 mil i think corpse bride will still be #1 in it's second week, but i think serenity will get such word of mouth and media attention at the high numbers i think the box office take will rise in it's 2nd week.

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Sunday, September 25, 2005 10:40 AM

HJERMSTED

Not sure how they are arriving at these numbers with most of Sunday left to tabulate:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/APWires/headlines/D8CRGELG1.html

Flightplan $24.6 million
Corpse Bride $20.1 million

The theater owners must be assuming all showings will sell out for the rest of the day or something.

Personally, I never would have guessed Flightplan to win the weekend. I'm shocked. AND stunned.

Hindsight is 20/20, tho. Guess we should have seen it coming... Americans LOVE their airline crash stories. Lost just won the best drama Emmy. Perhaps it was the crash element and NOT the sci fi element that people were drawn to re: Lost.

Next week's Serenity premiere will be interesting. I'm adjusting my guess: Serenity will take second or third with around $20 million.

I hope I'm wrong and it makes a helluva lot more, of course!! But my earlier predictions in this thread are proving to be waaay too optimistic and I felt an adjustment was in order.

mattro

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Sunday, September 25, 2005 11:04 AM

ECGORDON

There's no place I can be since I found Serenity.

Flight Plan made its box office off of Jodie Foster and a strong media campaign, but I have yet to read a positive review of it. I've just seen Corpse Bride and I don't think it can take the #1 spot next weekend, it's lacking that spark that Nightmare Before Christmas had.

Serenity will be #1 with a three day take of 27.4 million, followed by a very slight drop-off to 23.2 mil for weekend #2 but still retain the top spot. My guess is that week 3 will see an increase over week two, but just shy of the take for week 1. Overall domestic gross should be around 98 million, with an extra 123 million in foreign revenues.

wo men ren ran zai fei xing.

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Sunday, September 25, 2005 12:02 PM

ANNIE

I love those predictions, ecgordon. Are you a box office guru of some sort, with some research to back this up?
I'm not being sarcastic. I hope you are right on the money or wrong in right direction. It makes me feel oprimistic to read a post like yours. :)

Sex and violence on the big screen, where it belongs.

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