CINEMA

The Twisters Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 4, 2024 20:40
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Thursday, May 9, 2024 3:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$200 Million budget. It needs $500 Million to break even.

I can't imagine anybody giving a shit about this one. And $200 Million is insane for sequel made 25 years too late.

Drops in theaters on July 19th.


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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 7:21 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


So it gets to miss the 4th celebration and vacation time?

Bill Paxton was maybe one of the bests in this, he was one of the best thing about the original, killed by an Islamo Iranian guy who called himself a heart surgeon Cedars-Sinai Medical Center city of fallen Demons Hell.A Commieofornia, the non profit businessmen paid the family some money, U.S News ranked Cedars-Sinai the best hospital in Commiefornia are the rest of the hospitals like Voodoo Taliban sites?

Bill Paxton was a solid actor, Aliens, Tombstone, The Terminator, True Lies, Apollo 13, Titanic, Weird Science, Edge of Tomorrow he didn't maybe have the star power of the A + + celebrity but he was always working on a big project and did it all, tv Texas Rising, Agents of Shield.

If Helen Hunt, Jami Gertz, Cary Elwes had starts they might have created more hype or they could have connected to dots the original by some plot.

not sure on this maybe I will watch an old Helen Hunt or Bill Baxton movie instead or one of their many movie and tv performances


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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 2:07 PM

WHOZIT


Yea, I think this'll go Kaboom. The trailer make it look like a reboot.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 2:10 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So it gets to miss the 4th celebration and vacation time?

Bill Paxton was maybe one of the bests in this, he was one of the best thing about the original, killed by an Islamo Iranian guy who called himself a heart surgeon Cedars-Sinai Medical Center city of fallen Demons Hell.A Commieofornia, the non profit businessmen paid the family some money, U.S News ranked Cedars-Sinai the best hospital in Commiefornia are the rest of the hospitals like Voodoo Taliban sites?

Bill Paxton was a solid actor, Aliens, Tombstone, The Terminator, True Lies, Apollo 13, Titanic, Weird Science, Edge of Tomorrow he didn't maybe have the star power of the A + + celebrity but he was always working on a big project and did it all, tv Texas Rising, Agents of Shield.

If Helen Hunt, Jami Gertz, Cary Elwes had starts they might have created more hype or they could have connected to dots the original by some plot.

not sure on this maybe I will watch an old Helen Hunt or Bill Baxton movie instead or one of their many movie and tv performances




I miss Paxton. I loved his line from Titanic, 'that makes you my new best friend'.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 4:55 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Yea, I think this'll go Kaboom. The trailer make it look like a reboot.



Yeah. I think it probably would have made a pallet of money in 2019. I don't see any scenario in any post-Covid year where any of this was a good idea though.

Does it make less than Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire? Even less than The Fall Guy will?

I don't know, but I'm hoping that it does even worse than Argylle did. That is to say less than $96 Million on the exact same $200 Million budget. I'm sure Argylle was a better movie than whatever this garbage is going to be.

I have little hope that audiences will reject Twisters to that extent though.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 5:14 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Yea, I think this'll go Kaboom. The trailer make it look like a reboot.



Yeah. I think it probably would have made a pallet of money in 2019. I don't see any scenario in any post-Covid year where any of this was a good idea though.

Does it make less than Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire? Even less than The Fall Guy will?

I don't know, but I'm hoping that it does even worse than Argylle did. That is to say less than $96 Million on the exact same $200 Million budget. I'm sure Argylle was a better movie than whatever this garbage is going to be.

I have little hope that audiences will reject Twisters to that extent though.

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At least Ghostbusters and Fall Guy had all star casts, this does not. The trailer looks like a comercial for Dodge Trucks

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Tuesday, May 21, 2024 6:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Yea, I think this'll go Kaboom. The trailer make it look like a reboot.



Yeah. I think it probably would have made a pallet of money in 2019. I don't see any scenario in any post-Covid year where any of this was a good idea though.

Does it make less than Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire? Even less than The Fall Guy will?

I don't know, but I'm hoping that it does even worse than Argylle did. That is to say less than $96 Million on the exact same $200 Million budget. I'm sure Argylle was a better movie than whatever this garbage is going to be.

I have little hope that audiences will reject Twisters to that extent though.

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At least Ghostbusters and Fall Guy had all star casts, this does not. The trailer looks like a comercial for Dodge Trucks





Yeah. I guess it kind of does.

I don't even know what an "all star" cast really looks like these days. The youngest people I know in Hollywood outside of Marvel movies would probably be Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling. For all I knew those people were already Hollywood famous but I just hadn't heard of them because they didn't say dumb woke shit on Twitter yet.



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Thursday, July 18, 2024 5:59 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Twisters' Eyes $45-50M Domestic Opening; $100M+ Global

https://deadline.com/2024/07/twisters-box-office-1236011849/

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Thursday, July 18, 2024 8:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Twisters' Eyes $45-50M Domestic Opening; $100M+ Global

https://deadline.com/2024/07/twisters-box-office-1236011849/



On a $200 Million budget, that's a death sentence, if true.


I always knew this was going to be one of my easier predictions this year from the moment I saw that trailer drop and I posted this thread.

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Friday, July 19, 2024 8:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce's write-up today...

Quote:

Twisters looks set to add more momentum to the Summer season this weekend, with $2 million from special screenings on Wednesday, $8.7 million from previews on Thursday, and reportedly excellent business already on Friday. Based on the official info we have so far, it looks as though it should earn more than $60 million this weekend, which is an excellent result for a movie that’s arriving more than 28 years after the previous installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, Oddity will try to find its way into the top ten, hot on the heals of Longlegs’ big debut last weekend.


Shill harder dude.

Even if this thing made $150 Million this weekend worldwide, which it won't, it would still be a massive failure with that $200 Million budget. If they had the $67 Million budget used on A Quiet Place: Day One, we'd be having an entirely different conversation here.

Half a Billion is the breakeven point. Historically, well at least over the 2023 and 2024, if a movie does not make its production budget back on opening weekend, it's chances of breaking even have greatly diminished. 80% to 100% is a coin-flip. Something in the area of $125 Million to open would require a miracle to not lose money. Migration pulled it off last year, but there's not many other examples aside from that.

Quote:

Further outings for the franchise seem very likely given the result so far, but this may be a case of absence making audiences grow fonder of the idea—there’s only so much one can do with the concept, one would think. (Aside from adding sharks, of course.)


No. Further outings for the franchise do NOT seem likely at all, Bruce.

Not with those numbers they don't.

This movie is set to lose somewhere in the area of $150 Million to $200 Million for Universal.

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Sunday, July 21, 2024 11:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Seems the YouTubers that are clearly on the right are wrong about this movie too.

Apolitical 'Twisters' Makes BANK at the Box OFfice. Media is CONFUSED.




Bruce is now saying that with previews included, Universal has projected an $80 Million opening weekend in the US.

That's all well and good, but if the international take isn't another $80 Million (including the $10 Million it made a week before the US release that doesn't count), this doesn't have a chance of breaking even. If it makes between $80 Million and $119 Million internationally, it's about a coin flip whether it breaks even or not.

I think it's a real shame how short-term everyone's memory is. People reporting on the "success" of Twisters today should know better given the $200 Million budget of this movie. All they talked about last year was budgets.

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Sunday, July 21, 2024 1:24 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Dead on Arrival?


Thailand less than 1 Million, $780K
Mexico launched with $3.3M
Australia whipped up $2.5M,


Profits might get eaten up by Fly Me to the Moon, Wolverine and Deadpool, The Exorcism, Space Cadet, Beverly Hills Cop Axel F, Saving Bikini Bottom The Sandy Cheeks Movie, Borderlanders, Alliens remake Romulus, The Bikeriders, Despicable Me 4, a conest with another cheaper remake A Quiet Place Day One


TWISTERS | 11.0M overseas | 11.0M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32296-twisters-110m-overseas-
110m-worldwide
/

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Sunday, July 21, 2024 8:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Dead on Arrival?



I like this post from "Firepower" in that thread:

Quote:

The movie simply lacks any relatability to most people overseas and it doesn't have strong enough spectacle to overcome that. Idiots chasing twisters and tornadoes with high tech for fun and then being surprised it's dangerous when they are already inside is not something particularly exciting or very interesting.


It was interesting once. 28 years ago.

*yawn*


I'm looking forward to EVERYONE eating crow on this movie.

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Sunday, July 21, 2024 9:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm looking forward to EVERYONE eating crow on this movie.




DEADLINE: ‘Twisters’ Swirls To $123M Global

https://deadline.com/2024/07/twisters-despicable-me-4-inside-out-2-glo
bal-international-box-office-1236016844
/

Given an $80M+ domestic opening and a one-week head start in 37 international markets? That's fucking pathetic.

Quote:

The global cume, largely boosted by domestic’s heartland turnout this weekend, is now $123.2M. Universal has domestic rights and Warner is handling overseas where $27.1M was wrangled from 76 markets this frame. That’s after early release in 38 markets last session. This weekend saw a 30% drop overall overseas, for a $42.7M offshore cume.


I said in the last post that despite the higher than expected US/Canada gross, it was going to need $80 Million internationally, including the $10 Million that it got from early showings internationally last weekend, just to put it in the position of a coin-flip that it wouldn't lose money for Universal. It has now only made $42.7 Million internationally, including last weekend.

This movie is finished. There is no a ZERO percent chance it comes within $100 Million of the half a billion it needs to break even.

I'm just waiting to see which outfit is going to be the first to come out and tell the truth about it.

Because as far as I can tell, the only ones telling the truth about it from all sides of the political spectrum now are me and some random posters on the boxofficetheory board, courtesy of Janyez's link drop above.

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Monday, July 22, 2024 7:25 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


‘Twisters’ review: Dilemmas, a hint of romance but mostly one tornado after another

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/twisters-review-dilemmas-hint-roma
nce-200000793.html

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Monday, July 22, 2024 2:32 PM

WHOZIT


I'm going to have to eat some poo here, it's a major hit. May help Dodge Truck sales

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Monday, July 22, 2024 3:15 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Some better numbers but still suffering the movie struggles to make profit

it can't be as bad as The Flash, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Matrix Resurrections, Space Jam remake, The Marvels, Black Adam or can it?


Box office at least $100+ million combined US Domestic and Overseas

China Box Office: ‘Twisters’ Is Blown Away as ‘Successor’ Enjoys $89 Million Weekend
https://www.thetechedvocate.org/china-box-office-twisters-is-blown-awa
y-as-successor-enjoys-89-million-weekend
/


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Monday, July 22, 2024 4:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
I'm going to have to eat some poo here, it's a major hit. May help Dodge Truck sales



Define hit.

The media, from all sides, is either straight up lying about this or is straight up ignorant of how money works. I'm sure some are a little of Column A and a little of Column B.

Don't worry about it. You were right. This one still loses at least $100 Million for Universal. My honest guess is that it loses over $200 Million for Universal. Nobody outside of America seems to give a shit about it.



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Monday, July 22, 2024 4:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Some better numbers but still suffering the movie struggles to make profit

it can't be as bad as The Flash, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Matrix Resurrections, Space Jam remake, The Marvels, Black Adam or can it?



I'd have to look into the numbers of Resurrections, Space Jam 2 and even Black Adam over again to speak to those, but it will not be as big of a failure os The Marvels or The Flash. It would literally be impossible for it to ever be as bad as Indy 5 simply because only Disney is insane enough to put a $345 Million production budget on a movie.

Without looking at the others on your list that I mentioned, it probably behaves the most like The Flash. That movie also had a $200 Million budget, but only grossed $266.5 Million.



Twisters made $124.7 Million worldwide opening weekend, minus the $11 Million or so it had already made overseas in 37 territories the weekend before.

So it made 62.4% of its production budget on opening weekend (when generously including the $11 Million from the weekend before).

Only one movie did numbers like that in 2024 and ended up coming back and making money. That was Universals kids movie "Migration".




Like the rest of the media, Bruce continues to lie about the financial success of Twisters...

Twisters hits blockbuster territory with $80-million opening

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257270830-Weekend-projections-Twister
s-hits-blockbuster-territory-with-80-million-opening

Box office at least $100+ million combined US Domestic and Overseas

Yeah Bruce... You forgot the part where even with a one week $11 Million international head start it only has garnered $43.5 Million internationally.

And look at this dumb shit he wrote at the end...

Quote:

Our model expects Twisters to make $214 million domestically, based on its opening weekend performance, but there’s obviously a lot of uncertainty in that prediction (anything between $170 million and $410 million would be within the margin of error). So it’ll be interesting to see how the next week or two goes for the movie.


Your model has a margin of error so wide that a $214 Million prediction on your part could fluctuate $44 Million down or up to $196 Million higher??????

First off, if you were a political strategist you'd be 10 times worse than Nate Silver is at his job with those numbers. Pick any random weather man and they could make better predictions on the final number of Twisters than you apparently can.

Secondly, that's got to be a string of typos because it doesn't even make any sense. That's not how the margin of error works. For example, +/-4% means the number could end up 4% lower or 4% higher than the number you're sticking with.

The number you're sticking with now is $214 Million. $170 Million would be -20.6% of that. $410 Million would be an increase of 91.6% of your chosen number.

WTF, Bruce?

Make this make sense.



To go beyond that, let's work with that $214 Million domestic total number Bruce put out there and disregard his nonsensical margin of error claims.

Currently, even with that one week international head start in half of the countries that are showing it now, the International Take has only been 34.9% of the Domestic box office.

34.9% of $214 Million is $74.7 Million. (Which it may not even get because, again, about 1/4 of that International box office was from the week long head start).

That's $289 Million worldwide on a $200 Million budget.

It needed $500 Million to break even.




So if Bruce's $214 Million Domestic total has any merit to it and the international market maintains equilibrium or even goes down, my statement above that this behaves the most like The Flash will be correct. Both movies needed half a billion to break even, and both movies would have made under $300 Million while only being about $23 Million apart from each other in total worldwide grosses.

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Wednesday, July 24, 2024 8:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Jonathan Romney at Literary Review:

Twisters, with a budget estimated at $200 million, is that enduring Hollywood paradox: the blockbuster that uses capitalism as shorthand for moral corruption. We know from the start that Javi’s business is compromised just by seeing its natty corporate graphics. (It would be interesting to know the costs for the logoed Twisters T-shirts worn by the ushers at the London premiere.)

The film contains one nice trick for cinephiles. In a small-town cinema which briefly serves as a storm shelter, the film being projected is the 1931 Frankenstein, in which Colin Clive’s Promethean scientist attempts to domesticate the raging elements. Eventually, the cinema’s back wall and screen are ripped away, revealing the tempest outside – prompting us to forget movie spectacle for a moment and attend to the real. Indeed, throughout, we’re reminded that the true mission of Kate and co is not adventure but to protect people from messed-up nature (climate change is the subtext) and to help them when things get rough. The most memorable imagery in Twisters does not involve chaos and fury but the aftermath of tornado strikes – whole towns flattened to sprawling fields of debris, one of them inscribed with a zigzag, as if the tornado has carved its signature there, Zorro-style.

more here. https://literaryreview.co.uk/eyes-of-the-storm

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, July 25, 2024 2:30 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


It's doing bad but then ok-ish so I'm actually impressed with that slight acceleration of money and its staying power...so far that is

Also its the 'Summer Season' so more people have time to go to the cinema

but to put it in perceptive back in 1996 you had ID4 or Independence Day, The Rock, Nutty Professor, Ransom, The Birdcage, A Time to Kill, 101 Dalmatians Walt Disney Studios M-Pictures, The First Wives Club, MissionImpossible, ...and the original of Twisters came in 2nd place against ID4

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Thursday, July 25, 2024 9:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
It's doing bad but then ok-ish so I'm actually impressed with that slight acceleration of money and its staying power...so far that is

Also its the 'Summer Season' so more people have time to go to the cinema

but to put it in perceptive back in 1996 you had ID4 or Independence Day, The Rock, Nutty Professor, Ransom, The Birdcage, A Time to Kill, 101 Dalmatians Walt Disney Studios M-Pictures, The First Wives Club, MissionImpossible, ...and the original of Twisters came in 2nd place against ID4



These $9 Million Monday and $12 Million cheap seat Tuesday numbers after that opening weekend is expected and do not detract from my predictions on the failure of this movie.

If you look at the chart for it at The-Numbers.com, it is trending toward the high end for "legs" this week, but there's no indication that it is going to ever outperform that trending.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Twisters-(2024)#tab=box-office

The only thing that saves this movie is if the International audience changes its mind and goes out in droves to watch it this week and weekend. Because right now we're already 6 days into its release and we're still only 80% of the Production Budget. And it had a full week's head start in half of the international territories, but it still only managed $43 Million in all that time.

The only movie last year I can recall that got less than 80% of the Production Budget back on opening weekend and still made a profit was Universal's kid's movie Migration.

This loses $100 Million for Universal for sure, but I'm leaning more toward $200 Million when it's all done.

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Saturday, July 27, 2024 6:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


LOL!

Twisters is done.

Deadpool and Wolverine came out on Friday and made $96 Million with $38 Million of that being from Preview Thurdsay.

Meanwhile, Twisters made $10 Million on Friday, a 68% drop from opening weekend, and less money than it pulled in on Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, Twisters has only made $176 Million worldwide in 8 days and Deadpool and Wolverine has already made $211 Million worldwide in only 1 day.


Twisters was already going to lose a ton of money for Universal, but it just got murdered because of the release schedule.

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Sunday, July 28, 2024 6:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hey! You guys finally made your production budget back after 10 days!

$221,231,000 Worldwide.


Only $278.8 Million left to go to break even!!!!!



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Sunday, August 4, 2024 5:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$274,386,000 worldwide after Weekend 3.

$225 Million to go to break even.

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Saturday, August 10, 2024 2:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
This loses $100 Million for Universal for sure, but I'm leaning more toward $200 Million when it's all done.



It will certainly lose more than $100 Million. It won't lose $200 Million.

But I'm still leaning "more towards".

$290,710,784 Worldwide as of this morning, with around $4 Million in the US last night.


I haven't heard a whole lot about this one, but what little I have has actually been pretty good. This one isn't going to die because of the reasons all the films that died in 2023 did, but it's just a matter of spending far, far too much.

Had Twisters been made on a $100 Million budget it would have already had $50 million or more profit in the bag.

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Monday, August 19, 2024 2:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's the little movie that could.

Twisters is still going to lose a ton of money, but it keeps closing the gap.

$333,539,000 Worldwide off a $9.8 Million 5th weekend.

The "More towards" $200 Million prediction is already wrong. I don't think it's still got more than $67 Million left in it to put it under $100 Million in losses, but it's made a hell of a lot more than Ghostbusters did, which was something I was questioning if it would even be able to do when the budget was announced.

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Monday, August 19, 2024 8:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Sign was posted - this film has flashy lights which might cause seizures.

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Wednesday, September 4, 2024 8:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I finally saw this in cinema.

I did enjoy it, but I can't recall if the first plotline was the same as this one.

IIRC, the first one was a love story, or love triangle story, with tornadoes as the setting.

This might be considered similar, but with less romancy stuff.

I've seen the 2 leads in other films. Plus Maura Tierney.

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