2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 7, 2025 21:54
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Saturday, January 4, 2025 6:04 PM

On January 2nd, I got a reply in the 2024 Hollywood thread from Second that read as follows....

Quote:
You are unaware that most movies are failures. By predicting failure, you will be a success most of the time.

This statement, while obviously untrue, was meant to be a dig at me after Jaynez has congratulated me several times inside the Cinema and RWED boards regarding my picks for the year. I wasn't flawless. I doubt anybody ever could have a flawless record on this for an entire year. But I did pretty damn good overall.

This got me thinking, why not make a game of it since we're all going to be here anyway?

Here's what I propose...

Every week, we know in advance thanks to the-numbers.com which movies are being released in the box office every Friday, and a breakdown of which movies will get a Wide vs. a Limited release. In fact, if you look at the list now, you'll realize that they've already put up a loose plotting for every movie that is set to be released for the year right now.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

While those dates are subject to change, particularly the further from today's date you go out, that would give a great roadmap of movies to look at for future predictions as you're making your predictions for the current week.

I'm going to leave the 2nd post here for the actual rules, because I don't think I could actually come up with a full list that wouldn't overlook something I hadn't thought of, or that a rule I put down now wouldn't somehow inadvertently suck the fun out of it.

Some suggestions I have made would be to allow anyone to abstain on a vote for a movie, or miss an entire week altogether. They can't gain any points if they don't bet, but they can't lose any either.

Another suggestion was to award or penalize a different point amount depending on the budget. I was thinking maybe +/- 3 points for any movie over $100 Million, while only +/- 2 points or mid-budget movies between $25 and $99 Million, and +/- 1 point for any movie with a budget under $20 Million.

Oh... and we're betting to see which movies can gross 2.5 times the Production Budget and which can't. That's the only qualifying factor here when determining what is and what isn't a loser.

I figure I'll start it off by myself if nobody is interested, and unless Second jumps in at any point he's going to bet that every movie is a loser since that was his claim, and we'll see what happens.

Let me know if you're interested in this and if you have any suggestions for rules.

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Saturday, January 4, 2025 6:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[rules] To be determined.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 8:37 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

quote

Hollywood’s Sequel-Led Comeback Projected to Extend Into 2025

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/hollywood-s-sequel-
led-comeback-projected-to-extend-into-2025

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Sunday, January 5, 2025 7:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

What say you Jaynez? Want to play?

With all those smaller Wide releases that come out, I think it could be interesting. I don't believe I'll have any inherent advantage over anybody else because of them. I've only ever spent time tracking movies like that if they were somehow special. Whether it be especially bad or especially good. The only ones that come to mind right now are Sound of Freedom, Five Nights at Freddy's, The Blackening, Asteroid City and Champions. And those were all from 2023.

But the problem is that we might have to create rules that end up ditching a lot of them by default too, if we can't find any budget information on them. There weren't a ton of low-budget movies to make it into my 2023 list, but 100% of the movies that I struggled to find budget numbers for were from these smaller studios.

Maybe I'm making it too difficult for anybody else to want to play.

Want to just start out playing the game for any movie that cost over $50 Million? $100 Million?

Oh... BTW... I know I didn't mention it in this new thread, but this week was a Bye week. There are no wide releases in 2025 until next weekend.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, January 6, 2025 8:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

All Flops! Everything will start flopping.

Jan Feb is usually a bad time

Until the month March maybe

The two big ones in the World Wide Markets the USA and China, the European market is big and Japan is somewhat big-ish but European culture public holidays are not too different from the USA. I know people don't like this but for simplification you could say Australia or Canada is very 'American' culture also and put the Orient as a 'bloc' of East culture, the SKorea, Japan holidays are not too different from other in Asia but they do have extra holidays Vernal Equinox Day March it seems to have been Pagan Shinto until it was made official in modern Japan, Emperor's Birthday, National Foundation Day and Coming of Age .
In the USA there are informal holidays Valentine's Day, Saint Patrick's Day, and holidays that have become less marked by Federal holiday Martin Luther King Jr. Day a floating Monday Washington's Birthday.
In Asia Chinese New Year's Eve is the big time off celebration period, 1st, 2nd and 3rd they don't have any other holidays until 'Tomb-Sweeping Day' April, SKorean does celebrate a Lunar New Year and Independence Movement Day but its box office is small compared to the rest of the world so it can almost be ignored. Australia stands out having summers while the Northern hemisphere of the planet has winters, the Commonwealth of Australia does not agree with itself different parts have different holidays in the Federal parliamentary constitutional monarchy system, there is an agreement 'Anzac Day' is to be celebrated, Australia Day in January, Good Friday is a Christian holy day observing the crucifixion of Jesus and his death at Calvary, I think the Aussie and Japan markets can be ignored for now despite having unique and interesting vacation periods...Australia markets and Japan box office are too small compared to the overall picture.

Yep people have different languages and yup the world has different cultural holidays, Valentines? In Japan the woman gives the man gifts, Giri choco "obligation chocolate" is chocolate given by women to men on Valentine's Day
You do however sometimes get box office hits this time of year Spider-Man No Way Home, Avatar, Star Wars Rogue One, Aquaman, Bob Marley One Love, Sonic et
So Jan Feb is not always failure.

The Rom Drama movie is more difficult to predict as it will change as fashions and attitudes change, 'Pretty Woman' for example was a huge hit but I don't think it would do good today there are movies like 'Fifty Shades of Grey' which have more sado sexual elements.
Teens are growing up quicker they are no longer watching Harry Potter but also The Twilight Saga.
I think the era of some weird feminist woman writing a weird fantasy about two Cowboys in a homosexual 'Brokeback Mountain' relationship is over, I dont see that becoming a hit again any time soon.
It Ends With Us showing that 'Movies for Women' aimed and women can 'Achieve Box-Office Success' especially when the budget is low.

I had a look at your other thread 'Abysmal Numbers' and replied

'Den of Thieves 2' Flop
Game Changer Flopping
'Better Man' Flop
Hard Truths another Flop

If a Tamil Bollywood Telugu Hindi movie opens in China is well distributed across Chinese cities and the Indian budget is low then it has a chance for success.
I'm calling everything a flop until I see budgets but if you keep a movie under 100 Million that's good
if its less than 50 Million product budget that's even better and it has a great chance of success

Hollywood should also be making cheap slasher horrors seen that the genre did so well...then tinsel town got scared and terrified by Scott Cawthon...too Christian? he didn't hate Trump?

the problem today is Hollywood has learned nothing since its 2018 decline, nothing since Covid and learned nothing since DEI stuff gown. Hoolweird failed to understand SJW politics is now rejected and it is still spending 200 + Million on movie production budgets

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Monday, January 6, 2025 11:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Well it's not much of a game if it's just me playing against two guys who call every movie a flop.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, January 6, 2025 11:34 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

by Summer?

Let us be real about the market and the insane Hollywood budgets and political messages that cost them profits

if it was 2007 then movies that struggle today would be making money
in year 2013 a movie like Kraven or Nosferatu could have made money but today

Joss movie The Avengers was a 2012 film, its unfair to expect hits like Avengers all the time but you can still have box office hits

Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Kraven the Hunter (2024) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Kraven-the-Hunter-(2024)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

whats coming up...Star Trek Section 31, One of Them Days a comedy 'Sony', 'Henry Danger' a superhero, Brave the Dark it had previews and liked by film fest critics, Screamboat a parody of Mickey Mouse that is public domain made into a horror.

PREDICTIONS

The Legend of Ochi makes money, an Indie US studio that films many its scenes overseas

Mickey 17 makes money

28 Years Later hit and a horror like robot Megan-2

March to Summer
a low budget Drama or Rom-Com does well, Superman and Dinosaurs and SpongeBob or some Dreamworks Disney Pixar animation

a movie from China is successful and knocks down a Hollywood film

By Summer 2025 a number of foreign language films will be in the Top10 maybe a few more in the top20 and their sucess will have cost an expensive Hollywood production its profits and helped 2 Hollywood films flop

it could be an indie Canadian slasher horror Canada movie studio or it could be Spanish or German or Japanese or French or South Korean movie that knocks down Hollywood but it is mostly likely to be a Chinese film these days that knocks Hollywood films out of the top ten or Top20

Mickey Mouse is public domain now, Screamboat is an upcoming American slasher film ...not sure.
because 'Iconic Events' studio is California I say they waste their budget on nonsense and its a fail...but I have no true budget numbers.
They did however make money with Terrifier 3 and maybe 'Iconic Events' also made some money with 'The Mitchells vs the Machines'...damaged by Covid but I think it did ok with 'streaming'
Flip a Coin on the Mickey Mouse horror?

'Thunderbolts' depends on word of mouth, critic rating, its marketing and its overseas take
news media, the Mouse is quiet, they won't tell us the budget
final film of Phase Five of the MCU.

I read they fight an evil parody of Superman called "Sentry"

currently in cinema? Kraven the Hunter from last year will continue to struggle, it can not earn much more on the global stage
Mufasa a remake on THE LION KING has been mostly rejected in Asia, China, SKorea, Japan
maybe a Hindi speaking Indian audience watched it but India is not a big market.
it has made money by Disney releasing it at the correct holiday period, global IMAX screens money and a strong hold with the French, the British, Mexico , Germany and Italy
add up 20 Million a few dozen millions to its profit if it has staying power

Successful Hollyweird films will mostly be Sequels or Prequels or re-imaginings or remakes or whatever you call them
Hollywood originality is dead

What also has changed

I think the foreign language thing is here to stay, expect a few of them to always be in the Top20 knocking down Hollywood tv and film

and a look back on 2023 and 2022

Barbie
The Super Mario Bros
Oppenheimer
Guardians of the Galaxy
Fast X
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

but then we had China ...
Full River Red

Wonka
The Little Mermaid
Mission Impossible
The Wandering Earth 2 $558,967,048 0.89%
No More Bets
Xiao Shi De Ta
Elemental
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

in year 2022

Avatar
Top Gun Maverick
Jurassic World Dominion
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Minions The Rise of Gru
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Thor Love and Thunder

and once again in the Top Ten a Chinese film
Chang Jin Hu Zhi Shui Men Qiao

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Du Xing Yue Qiu
Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Fantastic Beasts The Secrets of Dumbledore
Uncharted
Ji Su Shi Ke

Hollywood out of ideas will continue to push the 'Superhero' thing even though Disney/WB comicbook genre is mostly dead

Fantastic Four, it never worked even when comicbook movies were popular

Captain America Brave New World lots of rumors...lots of gossip

'Drop' if it has expensive Michael Bay explosions then I will assume flop..what is the budget?

Companion scheduled to be released in the United States by Warner Bros Pictures...Flop

Dog Man, did people in Europe or Asia read 'DogMan'...a question of production costs again what is the budget?

The Unbreakable Boy it was supposed to come out before Covid, American drama, delays, actors, writers strikes etc

Wolf Man, I don’t know if the budget is high I will assume 'Flop'

The Legend of Ochi an indie US studio in NYC, called A24 budget is under 10 Million, although it is a US movie
put this down as a Hollywood killer, a giant slayer, studios continue to move out of California
a lot of it was also shot in the Apuseni Mountains Romania.
HIT - Box Office Profit
it does not matter what month it comes out

March and on?

Mickey 17 a US movie a SKorea director a well known actor Robert Pattinson, I think its a hit but not sure, I have not seen the budget

28 Years Later, if the Budget is Low its a hit

M3GAN 2.0 should be a hit if the budget stays low

4th of July and Nostalgia
Jurassic World Rebirth, you also have Superman reboot, they could be big hits depending on how busy summer is

Snow White could be the biggest flop

Mortal Kombat part 2, the first one a 'reboot' that came out during Covid had the benefit of the world being shut down, nobody having anything to watch and nobody making movies
While Hollywood sees money in video game property
I see this as a sequel that flops
Budget $68 million...I would guess its original Mortal Kombat 2 budget was 40 Million but then everything was paused in mid-July due to the SAG-AFTRA strike.
Did its budget balloon to 100 Million?

I think a new Sponge Bob is out by Christmas 2025
kids animations sell, so HIT

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Monday, January 6, 2025 3:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wow.

That's a lot.

You'll have to remember that list of predictions is here and see how well you did when they're all said and done.

I was thinking more of a week-by-week thing... not predicting every major movie that's set to come out next year all at once.

What I found interesting about this challenge would include a lot of movies that none of us have ever given predictions on and would otherwise not really even notice went in and out of theaters while we were looking at the monster budgets.

But like I said, the challenge there would be realizing how many of those never get a stated production budget at all, let alone a timely one that would allow us to vote before we already know if it's doing well or not.

We would have to vote every Friday night, or early Saturday morning before the Friday numbers come in. Really, there would be no time that was too early to vote for a given opening night, but since Thursday preview numbers are a thing and we have a lot more info about a movie once the Friday morning news starts rolling out it would behoove you to wait until the last minute to vote every week.

Take a look at the release schedule and tell me if you think this would be interesting.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

There were no wide releases this week, but there will be 5 on Friday. 2 of them will have Preview Thursday numbers, but 3 of them will not because they were already in theaters and are Expanding Wide on Friday.

(NOTE: "Wide" means more than 600 theaters, in case anybody didn't know or was wondering).

New Wide Releases:

Lionsgate's Den of Theives 2: Pantera

Schloka Entertainment's Game Changer

Expands Wide:

Paramount Pictures' Better Man

Bleecker Street's Hard Truths

Roadside Attraction's The Last Showgirl

......

And now that I look at all 5 of them, it becomes clear just how hard it probably would be do keep this up every week for a year.

5 Wide Releases only 4 days away and not a single one of them have a Production Budget number stated on The-Numbers.com.

If we nix this, which we probably will after finding out we have no budget information on anything, would you still be interested in tracking the bigger movies for a year and see who gets the most predictions correct?

That would be a hell of a lot easier for me to manage and would require a lot less commitment from anyone else playing along.

Come up with a figure. $50 Million? $80 Million? $100 Million or more?

We can always start with a high number and adjust things down if we wanted to make it more interesting.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 1:17 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

not sure of 2025 numbers but there are profits from Last year Kraven seems dead and Gladiator II won't make much more

Top movies seems like the foreign language stuff is already making a move while Hollywood sleeps?

Mufasa The Lion King
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Moana
The Damned an international film Belgium, USA, Iceland
Nosferatu
Wicked
Pororo Underwater adventure a movie from South Korea
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets has a 2025 Re-release

China is doing animation soon, Nezha part II Box office was not massive US$70 million but part 2 is expected to do better?then Chinese had a $740M+ box office cash in year 2019 hit and it had a cheap production Budget$20 million

Sony Group Deepens Investments in Booming Anime Sector
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ces-sony-grou
p-deepens-investments-anime-1236102709/

Nosferatu grossed $13.09M this weekend (from 3,132 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $69.29M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1876356796631421297

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 2:42 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

The Numbers - Movies Released in 2024
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2024

There are hundreds of movies with $0 revenue, making it trivial to calculate those movies were unprofitable.

Then there are movies such as DarkGame (2024) with Worldwide Box Office $169,524
It has probably failed to be profitable, too.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/DarkGame-(2024-United-Kingdom)#tab=s
ummary

If you want to investigate each movie and calculate a profit, go ahead, but most of these movies lost money for the people who financed the production. On the other hand, the producers of films get paid, even when the movie loses money, which is why producers keep making movies.

Yes, most movies lose money:

• Production costs: The average cost to produce a major studio movie is around $100 million, which includes production, distribution, and marketing.

• Profit margins: According to American Film Market, 59% of movies lose money.
https://americanfilmmarket.com/do-good-reviews-matter/

• Independent films: Less than one-third of independent films recoup their investment.

• Factors that lead to losses: Movies can lose money due to high production costs, poor marketing, or lack of audience interest.

However, some movies that are considered box-office bombs can still break even or turn a profit through other revenue streams. For example, Cleopatra was a box-office bomb, but it eventually broke even when Fox sold the television broadcast rights to ABC.

Studios may also use creative accounting techniques to make it appear as if a movie is a loss when it's actually profitable. This is sometimes called Hollywood accounting.

https://www.google.com/search?q=do+most+movies+lose+money

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025 9:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
[rules] To be determined.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

I don't have a clear picture.

What is the goal, the time frame, the criteria, the result?

If we find a budget figure, you usually claim some other figure is correct, from various inconsistent sources, sometimes higher or lower.

Give an example of a completed game round.

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