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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
How Captain America: Brave New World’s Box Office Compares To MCU Flops

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/02/17/how-captain-america-
brave-new-worlds-box-office-compares-to-mcu-flops/


however if it makes 10 bucks profit Marvel / Disney will class it was a 'win'?

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So, it’s right in that range, and nearly twice as good as the lowest-performing MCU movie ever, The Marvels, which went on to only earn $206 million worldwide. But how does it compare to say, other Captain America movies?

Captain America: The First Avenger - $65 million opening weekend, earned $370 million total
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $95 million opening, earned $714 million total
Captain America: Civil War - $179 million opening weekend, earned $1.1 billion total

So, it’s number three out of four there for openings.

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If its trajectory continues compared to these other Captain America movies, it could end up earning perhaps $600+ million,

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though that assumes word-of-mouth is good enough to carry it further from here

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which may not be the case judging by its Cinemascore.

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That level of performance, however, would proably be considered at least some level of a success compared to recent Marvel underperformers (then we have Deadpool and Wolverine’s $1.3 billion, of course).

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
but there is a danger SKorea itself could push Hollyweirdos out of the international market if they have continued success at home and have no desire to be part of the weird tinseltown Commiefornia culture

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Mickey 17 could have staying power but not sure if it can make money

but the Hollyweirdo 'message' and general political divide will kill movie experiences

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
another flop Novocaine...maybe not it has a reported Budget of $18 million...so does that qualify in the 'indie' thread where the first post was to cap it at $15-16 Million?

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
a dual citizen Mayor pushes his religious sandbox politics
the USA isn't an Israeli Police State yet and its not the jihad Middle East so...

Streisand effect idiots

ban something and create hype making it all more popular

Miami Beach Mayor Drops Plan to Evict O Cinema After ‘No Other Land’ Controversy

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/miami-beach-mayor-drops-plan-evict-
o-cinema-no-other-land-1236342491/

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So its April and your typical Hollyweird action 'block buster' big studio film can barely move past 50 Million ...Hollywood is dead?

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm really interested to see this Minecraft movie play out.

I have absolutely zero expectations or predictions for it. I don't really know if the media does either since I've seen projections from $600 Million to over $1 Billion worldwide.


I'm really not so sure of that though...

What is the underlying "story" of Minecraft? I never played it, but it's been big enough for long enough for me to have heard about it over the years.

I think it's really nothing more than a few highly-addictive yet simple gameplay loops, and if there is any real story associated with it, it's just a bare-bones deal. People weren't playing this game for a decade because of the story. It was those addictive loops that brought a steady stream of low-dose dopamine hits that kept people coming back for more. I could tell that was the case just from watching a little bit of gameplay here or there and I stayed FAR away from it because even though it appealed mostly to kids I could easily see myself getting trapped in those gameplay loops like I've done before in games like Torchlight II, where I played several hundred hours beyond finishing the "story" and just literally KILLING time by upgrading things that didn't need to be upgraded anymore and trying to 100% a game that would have taken me another 400 hours to complete if I didn't somehow break free of the loop and the Sunk Cost Fallacy that I had to overcome to leave after wasting all that time.

But kind of like the Borderlands movie, I think this one is just coming out way too late. I'm pretty sure a lot of the kids that grew up playing Minecraft have moved on to bigger and better games by now. More mature content with better graphics and an edgy backdrop, but full of new-and-improved addictive gameplay loops.

I'd say that most of the people who played Minecraft enough to want to see this movie are also not old enough yet to really have any kids old enough to want to see this in the theater yet, so it's also coming out too early at the same time. They won't be getting any Nostalgia bump from adults out of it.


I'd guess that anybody saying this movie is going to make a Billion or more is just nuts.

Forbes: ‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/04/03/minecraft-movie-revi
ews-are-in-and-a-billion-dollar-haul-is-nigh/



And I'm wondering if it can actually make the low-end predictions of $600 Million that I'm seeing too.

Everybody in the world knows who the Mario Bros. are, and that movie made $1.36 Billion a few years back. Who would you even know besides maybe a teenage or 20-something nephew who could name a single character in Minecraft. (Assuming that named characters are even a thing in this game).


There's no way that it's going to do Borderlands levels of bad. Not even close to that.

But can it justify the $150 Million budget?

$375 Million to break even.

It's far less than the lowest worldwide predictions I've seen out there, so unless everybody has just lost the ability to predict which way the wind is blowing on everything in 2025 entirely, I think it should at least make $375 Million without any problems.


Variety is predicting $65 Million opener here and $135-$150 worldwide opening.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/a-minecraft-movie-box-office-openin
g-weekend-projection-1236354645/

That is nowhere NEAR the territory you need to get $1 Billion.

Dune 2 made $182.5 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $714 Million worldwide.

Super Mario Bros. made $375 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $1.359 Billion.

Ya see... There's patterns here you can figure out pretty easily when looking at something long enough...

Dune 2 made roughly half of what SMB made on opening weekend, and it finished off roughly with half of the worldwide box office that SMB got.

Now that isn't always going to be the case with external factors and the chaos of life always at play, but if Variety's call of $150 Million on their high-end comes true, you're looking ultimately at a worldwide box office under $600 Million, though well above $500 Million.




My final guess after mulling it over here is $500 Million worldwide.

In normal times I'd say that WB should be quite happy with that profit, but these aren't normal times and they're going to need a lot more money on their hits than this would give.

Maybe I'm reading the room entirely wrong and this thing ends up doing way better than I'd ever predict it would.

I guess we'll know more in a few days.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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From remake fatigue and controversies to massive budget issues and poor marketing

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Joe Rogan reveals REAL reason Snow White flopped at the box office as he calls for shock DOGE investigation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14565877/joe-rogan-snow-white
-flop-rachel-zegler.html

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Joe Rogan suggested DOGE should investigate the makers of box office flop Snow White for managing to blow a $250million budget on a movie that looked terrible instead of blaming star Rachel Zegler.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Stop trying to make movies for Everyone. Nobody wants to see a movie that was made for Everyone.

You have built in audiences. Cater to them and you'll do great.

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Minecraft’s opening almost literally broke our model. On Friday, I confidently stated that “The $146 million earned by The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in 2023 is surely out of reach”. That was because it would need a massive 13.9 times multiplier from its previews to its final weekend box office, something not achieved by any comparable film. In the event, Warner Bros. is predicting a multiplier of 14.9. That’s driven by $60 million in ticket sales on Saturday, which is the 15th-best Saturday ever, and the best Saturday in history for the studio. With that kind of momentum, the film could still top the weekend projection of $157 million, which relies on $39 million in sales on Sunday. Other industry predictions I’ve seen this morning are settled around $155 million or so, but there’s still an upside possibility of $160 million.

Internationally, the film is also doing well, with $144 million projected for the weekend by Warner Bros.. That’s led by $19.9 million in the United Kingdom, $14.5 million in China, $11.2 million from Mexico, and $10.6 million in Germany.

In spite of the uncertainty around the broader economy going into the weekend, movie fans have packed theaters, and once again shown that success in this business is driven by one thing only: giving customers what they want.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Oh... $157 Million now predicted for the US opening. Probably EASILY breaks $300 Million worldwide, which makes this a certified hit by making more than double the production budget on opening weekend. I already heard word that's it's doing crazy business in China.

Even without seeing the international numbers, I'd say my top-end prediction of $650 is looking pretty good right now. Could make even more than this if the interest stays high and it gets a proper run in theaters before getting yanked. And this could be the first time in a long while that the Chinese box office plays a factor in the end result.

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
$100 Million Budget for a horror

Sinners the budget way too high?

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I said it was going to do very well, but if it beat Super Mario Bros that would be insanity. (After it did beat SMB on opening weekend when you take SMB's 5-day weekend and only calculate for 3-day).

Super Mario's first Monday: $20,110,945

Minecraft's first Monday: $10,000,000

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
‘Ignorant’: China slams US Vice-President J.D. Vance for ‘peasants’ slur
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3305715/ignorant-dis
respectful-china-slams-vance-peasants-slur-tariff-war-intensifies?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage


this was unexpected, from one retarded shitshow to another

they now sound like British Imperialists trying to shout down at little Yellow-Man

one positive thing I can say about the Zionist Don is he has not crashed everything like Joe and Kamala Harris done...yet

and give Vance the idiot award for Diplamcy

we are back in the Bill O'Reilly mega RINO retard smug political commentator years



China's box office is the key market for making a Hollywood film successful. And now China is considering a ban on American films to spare their citizens from terrible DEI tranny movies

https://www.thegamer.com/china-threatens-ban-hollywood-films-trump-tar
iffs-market/

Canada is already on a boycott of US brands

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I said it was going to do very well, but if it beat Super Mario Bros that would be insanity. (After it did beat SMB on opening weekend when you take SMB's 5-day weekend and only calculate for 3-day).

Super Mario's first Monday: $20,110,945

Minecraft's first Monday: $10,000,000

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Interesting numbers


Other previous discussion? There is a general Hollywood is fake thread which talks about failures and why Hollywood strange odd weird political 'culture' is now insulting its own US audience...these are more focused on rants against the industry with less talk about box office success

In the tv show section of threads, away from 'cinema' there is a general movies from 'Video Game' property which Minecraft discussion is probably a part of

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Originally posted by second:
Before squandering money on taking your children to the movies, watch A Minecraft Movie (2025) on your TV:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Like I said. It will do well, but I hope nobody at Warner Bros'. was expecting a $1.5 Billion surprise out of this one.

At least until weekend 2 numbers coming out, I'm still going with $650 worldwide max. If the numbers drop 50% or more everywhere, I'll already be right. If they drop less than that, this might be interesting.

Either way, it's still making at least a few hundred million for WB.

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Even if A Minecraft Movie makes $60 million to $70 million in its second weekend in North American theaters, the film is surely on its way to profitability.

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