Will Toy Story 5 hit a Billion? by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

Will Toy Story 5 hit a Billion?

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Tuesday, June 23, 2026 10:47
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VIEWED: 86
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Monday, June 22, 2026 2:27 PM

If you're a media outlet that hasn't yet closed down or replaced all of their staff with A.I., you're probably pretty convinced that it will.

Looking at previous numbers for TS3 and TS4, you probably can't be blamed for that. TS5 did just put out a larger opening weekend both domestically and internationally than either of those did (not adjusted for inflation, anyhow).

But do movies have the longevity in theaters in 2026 that they did in 2019? We already know the answer to that question is no. And we know there's certainly no way that 2026 can run against movie run lengths back in 2010 when TS3 came out.

Toy Story 3 (2010) was in theaters 46 days before it saw its first sub-Million day in the US.

Toy Story 4 (2019) was in theaters 53 days before it saw its first sub-Million day in the US.

Let's look at other movies from the Top 10 this year...

Super Mario Bros Galaxy: Our only Billion Dollar Club movie on the list so far, had its first sub-million day only 33 days into its run.

Obsession and Backrooms: They're still making 1 Million + per day, but they're only around 30 days into their runs and aren't even close to being contenders for the Billion Dollar Club with a very muted international number compared to what the big boys like Disney and Universal would get.

Michael: Not really comparable since it's not a movie and it's a very unique one-time thing happening here. This will be in the Billion Club very soon. It took 53 days for it to make less than 1 Million.

Star Wars Tin Man and Kermit: Only 21 days to our first sub-Million day here.

Avatar: Fire and Ass: And rounding out our Top 10 2026 Domestic box office is the Avatar movie from last year. That is really sad we're halfway through 2026 and Avatar is still in the top 10 domestic grossing movies of 2026 without any of the benefit of its first several weeks in theaters last year.

Even A3 had its first sub-million day 35 days into its run. But unlike any of the other movies on this list will besides arguably Michael, it had a phenomenal international showing and grossed almost $900 Billion outside of the US.

The long and short of it is that it may hit $1 Billion, but when you account for the large amount of inflation that has taken place between 2019 when TS4 came out and today, it's not really a Billion movie. And if you compare it to 2010 when TS3 came out with inflation factored in, I'm not even sure if this will end up being a half-billion run when held up to the numbers 16 years ago.

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Monday, June 22, 2026 5:45 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Download for free Toy.Story.5.2026.1080p.Telesync.h264.Dual.YG

Size: 8.57 GiB (9,202,389,410 Bytes)

Torrent Link: 822E3419833FAF52831BEBA06F63F7BF297287D9

https://thepiratebay.org/description.php?id=83548969

Soundtracks for both English and Spanish, even though both tracks are marked as Spanish.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, June 22, 2026 9:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Soundtracks for both English and Spanish, even though both tracks are marked as Spanish.

Good lookin' out.

Every once in a while you actually do act like a human being.

You're still being a dick for putting Haken in a spot every time you post pirated stuff here, but I think I'm a long way past letting that bother me anymore if it ain't bothering him none.

If I were in the mood for Toy Story 5, I wouldn't bother downloading a version that specified it was in Spanish but makes no mention that it had both.

Assuming you're not lying, and I see no hypothetical reason why you would here other than the fact you're a serial liar since there's zero ROI in it for you, that was a good post.

I think that now makes 3 posts you've made since I got sober that were worth the coal burned to generate the electricity necessary for you to spew it all out there.

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Monday, June 22, 2026 9:55 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

But do movies have the longevity in theaters in 2026 that they did in 2019? We already know the answer to that question is no.

Moviegoers provided the studios with less than 15 percent of their worldwide revenues, while couch potatoes provided it with 85.8 percent.

That is a quote from Hollywood’s Death Spiral by Edward Jay Epstein, July 25, 2005 2:48 PM.

It was called a Death Spiral because Hollywood movies would be on TV shortly after first appearing in theaters. In the following 21 years, the word shortly kept getting shorter and shorter until the movie was on TV while it was in theaters. That is why movie ticket sales are dropping quickly after a week or two.

https://slate.com/culture/2005/07/hollywood-s-death-spiral.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 23, 2026 2:53 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

maybe

1 A known liked brand. Some points, positive - its a well known franchise and these types of movies can do well.

2 These types of kids movie do well in summer, positive - school is off and you have a successful animated adventure comedy film d

3 Mario was similar, so unsure no guarantee win.... a Japanese game franchise made into movies got one Billion Dollars but it had to work hard to break one Billion

4 Economics, bad negative, people dont spend cash like they used to. If you depend too much on overseas you could be in trouble

5 Sportsball another negative against cinema is the FIFA Soccer thing for about one full month people across Europe, Latin America will be watching this 'football' event in their free time and it will cost ticket sales

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Tuesday, June 23, 2026 4:53 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
maybe

1 A known liked brand. Some points, positive - its a well known franchise and these types of movies can do well.

I would say that the brand itself is well into the positive overall, but it's also very much a question of "what have you done for me lately?", which is really the same question you can ask about nearly every movie, video game and US comic book franchise in 2026 after all of the fuckery.

I hear there's a pretty mixed reception on Toy Story 3 and 4 depending on who you ask, and Lightyear was one of Disney's biggest woke bombs ever and only came out 4 years ago. There hasn't been a successful Toy Story movie in theaters in 7 years now.

Quote:
2 These types of kids movie do well in summer, positive - school is off and you have a successful animated adventure comedy film d

This is very true.

Quote:
3 Mario was similar, so unsure no guarantee win.... a Japanese game franchise made into movies got one Billion Dollars but it had to work hard to break one Billion

I wondered why SMB released so early since the first few weekends the kids would have still been in school, but knowing that Toy Story was coming out gave Universal and/or Nintendo enough pause to step back and take the path of least resistance. They knew that their audience would be there and come out BIG on the weekends even if school was still going on, and that was probably a really good call. I don't think the extra weekly revenue with the kids off of school would have come close to making up for the revenue lost for competing directly against TS5 during the entire run.

Quote:
4 Economics, bad negative, people dont spend cash like they used to. If you depend too much on overseas you could be in trouble

Also, very true.

Just don't forget the woke shit fatigue too. Not just in America. And probably even more in China and Mexico than in most Western European nations overall.

Quote:
5 Sportsball another negative against cinema is the FIFA Soccer thing for about one full month people across Europe, Latin America will be watching this 'football' event in their free time and it will cost ticket sales

Oh... That's a good point.

That wouldn't have been on my radar even though it's taking place in the US this year. I won't be watching a single second of it unless there's some crazy viral thing that happens during a match.

Do you know that this has a negative effect for certain? As in, have you ever read that there were studies or somebody collected the data showing that people from other countries and from Latin America in particular show up to the cinema less when the World Cup is going on?

If this is not an incidental difference in cinema attendance every year, releasing TS5 when they did may have been a pretty glaring oversight on their part depending on how drastic those numbers tend to shift year over year.

Just another reason why Universal tends to look pretty damn smart whenever it's standing next to Disney the last 10 years or so.

Rather than duke it out with Disney with two long-time IPs that have been beloved in America for decades, they wisely took a step back and traded in the chance of a bit of a possible larger payout for the safe bet on releasing the Super Mario sequel while kids were still in school for a few weeks longer and not compete with TS5 until long after it was done making any real money.

I do believe that Mario would have ultimately won that battle, but I also think that both movies would have ended up making quite a bit less money than they did when Universal made that concession.

And besides... Universal makes a billion dollar hit on half the money or less than it takes Disney. What do they give a shit? Everybody with a stake in it is still a huge winner and there was never any doubt that would be the case. Even with 350 Million less in sales than the first movie, Universal and Nintendo just printed somewhere around 3 quarters of Elon Musk's current net worth out of thin air.

But I could see King Company of Hubris Disney waltz right in and not give two shits about how half the world's love of Soccer might impact their sales. Do they even have anybody left on staff who would try to predict these kinds of things even if there was only one person left in the entire company who wanted to try?

--------------------------------------------------

Those who dance always seem crazy to those who can't hear the music.

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Tuesday, June 23, 2026 7:14 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

And besides... Universal makes a billion dollar hit on half the money or less than it takes Disney. What do they give a shit? Everybody with a stake in it is still a huge winner and there was never any doubt that would be the case. Even with 350 Million less in sales than the first movie, Universal and Nintendo just printed somewhere around 3 quarters of Elon Musk's current net worth out of thin air.

But I could see King Company of Hubris Disney waltz right in and not give two shits about how half the world's love of Soccer might impact their sales. Do they even have anybody left on staff who would try to predict these kinds of things even if there was only one person left in the entire company who wanted to try?

Most of Disney's movie revenue is NOT from movie tickets.

I asked Google if this is true: moviegoers provided the studios with less than 15 percent of their worldwide revenues, while couch potatoes provided them with 85.8 percent.

Google answers: Yes, this statement is historically accurate, but it refers specifically to data from 2005. The sentence is a direct quote from a July 2005 Slate article by Edward Jay Epstein titled "Hollywood's Death Spiral."

The Modern Landscape

While the specific "85.8%" figure belongs to 2005, the trend itself has only intensified. Today, studios rely even less on the domestic box office. The "couch potato" economy has transitioned from physical DVDs to digital streaming platforms (SVOD), video-on-demand (VOD), and international television syndication.

Most modern blockbusters do not break even on theater ticket sales alone after theaters take their 50% cut; they rely entirely on home streaming rights, licensing, and merchandising to turn a profit.

I can provide more insight into the business of Hollywood if you tell me:

• Are you interested in how streaming services changed these percentages?

Modern Revenue Splits (Theatrical vs. Streaming) Because streaming metrics are often treated as corporate secrets, the absolute percentages vary wildly by studio, but recent SEC filings reveal that the theatrical share remains low.

Paramount Pictures: Recent financial filings show that theatrical releases generated roughly 27 percent of their segment revenue, while content licensing, streaming, and advertising brought in the remaining 73 percent.

Lionsgate: Domestic filings reveal that theatrical sales accounted for just 9.7 percent of revenue, while home entertainment and television brought in over 41.4 percent (with the rest coming from international bundles).

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Tuesday, June 23, 2026 10:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by second:

Most of Disney's movie revenue is NOT from movie tickets.

How Movies Make Money After Leaving Theaters: The Economics of a Film on Streaming

Unpacking a film's financial afterlife once it leaves theaters.

By Daniel Parris

Nov 06, 2025

https://www.statsignificant.com/p/how-movies-make-money-after-leaving

Slash Film wrote an article titled “5 Reasons Why One Battle After Another Flopped At The Box Office.”

Variety quipped, “One Battle After Another Projected to Lose $100 Million Theatrically.”

The BBC offered an explainer on “Why the year’s most acclaimed film flopped.”

These are the same writers who bemoan Hollywood’s reliance on intellectual property and the industry’s aversion to original storytelling. I could spend a few paragraphs unpacking this hypocrisy, but there’s a lot to cover in this essay, so I’ll just say this: these articles are the worst.

Most baffling about this industry coverage is its myopic focus on box office, with no mention of the revenue this film will generate on streaming—a glaring omission that applies to most post-pandemic releases.

So today, we’ll demystify the economics of films once they leave theaters, unpack the myriad complexities that muddy these calculations, and explore why industry coverage is ill-equipped to track this evolving financial model.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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USER	POST DATE
JAYNEZTOWN	06.23 02:53
6ixStringJack	06.23 04:53
second	06.23 07:14
second	06.23 10:47