CINEMA

The Aquaman 2 Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Saturday, March 2, 2024 16:57
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1244
PAGE 1 of 1

Tuesday, November 28, 2023 11:15 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears that removing Amber Heard from the trailers and diminishing her role severely is not going to save this movie, and as I've speculated in other threads leading up until now, the winnings Warner Bros. got from Barbie is not going to only be carrying three comic book flops in 2023, but four.

Here's BoxOfficePro's predictions for Aquaman 2:

Opening Weekend Range: $32M-$42M
Domestic Total Range: $105M-$168M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-aquaman-an
d-the-lost-kingdom-and-migration/

It's tracking 25% above Shazam II and 62% below Black Adam in presales.


According to Variety, Aquaman 2's Production Budget was $205 Million. That's the Death Sentence right there.

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483/


As we've seen so far this year, even reaching 100% of your Production Budget worldwide on Opening Weekend is not a guarantee that you'll break even, and I don't believe that Aquaman 2 is even going to come close to $205 Million on opening weekend.

Unfortunately, I can't do any comparisons to the first movie because it was released internationally and had already made $360 Million (with $189 Million of that from China) weeks before it was released in the US.

But Captain Marvel made over $1 Billion and look where The Marvels is at now.


As for DC in 2023...

Shazam II cost $125 Million to make and only grossed $132 Million Worldwide. (It made $6 Million in China)

The Flash cost $200 Million to make and only grossed $266 Million Worldwide. (It made $25 Million in China)

Blue Beetle cost $120 Million to make and only grossed $129 Million Worldwide. (It wasn't even shown in China)


So... Unless China has some strange love for shirtless underwater men that I'm unaware of, I think it's pretty safe to say that China's put the comic book trash behind them. There's a decent chance that the $190 Million that China had already put into the first Aquaman before it was released in the States is on par with the entire global box office take for the sequel.

And Aquaman 2 was the most expensive DC movie of 2023. Probably due to reshoots and diminishing Amber Heard's presence.

And people are already asking the question "Will Amber Heard be in Aquaman 3?"

Silly simps. There will be no Aquaman 3.




I won't make any predictions about the final box office until after it's been out for a weekend or two, other than to say that the chances of this thing making the $512 Million it needs to break even are about as good as Disney learning their lesson and making money in 2024.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, December 5, 2023 8:06 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


seems like another over expensive high cost production, out of control Budgets again

Aquaman was 2018 before Covid it made money, most crashed post Covid and after they started filling up movies with this weird 'Message' diversity transexual Gay Black Lesbian stuff everywhere

Maybe it can be a success but the market is tough now, Spider-Man No Way Home made profits but a lot of superhero stuff is crashing


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

62% below Black Adam in presales.


Not a good sign but I think its too early to predict...however there seem to be too many big expensive movies fighting for that small piece of turf where you can make profit.

Isn't Musk dating her again, maybe he will spam ads on twitter aka 'X' and brainwash everyone into going?

There is a contest to hold top position with Ferrari, Beyonce, Silent Night, Wonka, 'Rebel Moon' could eat some profits but its also Vacation time, more kids going to the movies and I'm not sure if it will have staying power into January. 'The Beekeeper' probably ends its chance at big profits.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 10:44 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

62% below Black Adam in presales.


Not a good sign but I think its too early to predict...however there seem to be too many big expensive movies fighting for that small piece of turf where you can make profit.


Yeah. You're right. It may be too early to predict. I could be eating crow again here like I did with Songbirds and Snakes. Only time will tell.

That's why I wasn't going to put an actual dollar amount on any predictions until at least 1 or 2 weekends in the theaters.

One thing for sure though... Even though Aquaman 1 got $1 Billion+ in the theaters, Aquaman 2 will not be the first Comic Book movie of 2023 to break the $1 Billion mark.

I'm just about 99.99% confident that this won't make the $512 Million it needs to break even. I think it will come in at quite a bit lower than this.

Quote:
Isn't Musk dating her again, maybe he will spam ads on twitter aka 'X' and brainwash everyone into going?


I don't know if they're dating. But I do know that when there was talks to remove her completely from the film he had a fit about it and was able to keep her in the movie.

You are right to bring this point up. I don't know about brainwashing, but he does have a very large circle of influence these days, particularly among a crowd that would overlap with those who would otherwise want to see this movie fail.

Quote:
There is a contest to hold top position with Ferrari, Beyonce, Silent Night, Wonka, 'Rebel Moon' could eat some profits but its also Vacation time, more kids going to the movies and I'm not sure if it will have staying power into January. 'The Beekeeper' probably ends its chance at big profits.


I've heard about Beekeeper, but I really don't know anything at all about it yet. Don't know about Rebel Moon either.

Beyonce seems to be a general dud worldwide, as does Silent Night.

I could be wrong, but I don't really expect all that much out of yet another Willy Wonka movie.


I don't expect any major blockbusters to be around to destroy Aquaman 2. I think the general rejection of all things comic book in 2023 will be enough, and even without a super strong contender against it, the box office is stuffed full of alternatives of varying quality, subject matter and success right now.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 4:59 PM

WHOZIT


I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets. If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 6:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets.


Yeah. It won't be Heard's fault at all. I was just making the point that even though they did everything they could to minimize her screen time after the fact it's not going to make any difference.

Quote:
If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?


Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, December 7, 2023 2:49 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets.


Yeah. It won't be Heard's fault at all. I was just making the point that even though they did everything they could to minimize her screen time after the fact it's not going to make any difference.

Quote:
If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?


Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, December 7, 2023 6:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?


Quote:
SIX: Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.


Quote:
whozit:
Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.


Yeah...

Let's put a dollar sign on it too.


LUCASFILM:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $381,561,976 (127% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$368,438,024

Willow TV Show
Production Budget: $105.9 million
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/08/15/revealed-the-aban
doned-streaming-series-that-cost-disney-100-million/
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Only, and pulled from Disney+ shortly after. Available only by pirating now)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$105,900,000



MARVEL:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3.
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744


The Marvels
Production Budget: $275,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $197,458,371 (72% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$490,041,629


Secret Invasion TV Show:
Production Budget: $212,000,000
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Release; worst reviewed Marvel property ever)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$212,000,000




DC:

Shazam: Fury of the Gods
Production Budget: $125,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-Fury-of-the-Gods-(2022)#tab=s
ummary
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$180,307,638


Blue Beetle
Production Budget: $120,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blue-Beetle-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $128,772,124

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$171,227,876


The Flash
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Flash-The#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $266,516,138

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$233,483,862


Aquaman 2
Production Budget: $205,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483
Worldwide Gross: $0

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$512,500,000



TOTAL LUCASFILM LOSSES IN 2023: $474,338,024

TOTAL MARVEL LOSSES IN 2023: $517,937,582 *

TOTAL DC LOSSES IN 2023: $1,097,519,376 **


* The Marvels is still making a small amount worldwide in theaters and will chip away at the Marvel figure.

** The entire $512 Million hole that Aquaman 2 has caused DC/Warner Bros. has already been added to this, so depending on how well it does in theaters this could be quite a bit less than it is right now.


Obviously Aquaman 2 is going to make some money back. At the very least I think it will make half the money it needs to break even worldwide even in the worst case scenario.

But it is funny looking at the figures right now and seeing that collectively all the comic book properties and Lucasfilm properties in 2023 have lost over $2 Billion.




Warner Bros. got really lucky it had Barbie in 2023.

My tables here are from all the way back on Halloween, so I don't know if WB is still the 2nd most profitable studio in 2023 anymore, but without Barbie's nearly 1.5 Billion gross vs the $145 Million Production Budget, it would have likely given Disney a run for its money for biggest loser in 2023.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 8, 2023 2:54 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?


Quote:
SIX: Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.


Quote:
whozit:
Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.


Yeah...

Let's put a dollar sign on it too.


LUCASFILM:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $381,561,976 (127% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$368,438,024

Willow TV Show
Production Budget: $105.9 million
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/08/15/revealed-the-aban
doned-streaming-series-that-cost-disney-100-million/
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Only, and pulled from Disney+ shortly after. Available only by pirating now)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$105,900,000



MARVEL:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3.
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744


The Marvels
Production Budget: $275,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $197,458,371 (72% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$490,041,629


Secret Invasion TV Show:
Production Budget: $212,000,000
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Release; worst reviewed Marvel property ever)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$212,000,000




DC:

Shazam: Fury of the Gods
Production Budget: $125,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-Fury-of-the-Gods-(2022)#tab=s
ummary
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$180,307,638


Blue Beetle
Production Budget: $120,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blue-Beetle-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $128,772,124

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$171,227,876


The Flash
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Flash-The#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $266,516,138

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$233,483,862


Aquaman 2
Production Budget: $205,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483
Worldwide Gross: $0

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$512,500,000



TOTAL LUCASFILM LOSSES IN 2023: $474,338,024

TOTAL MARVEL LOSSES IN 2023: $517,937,582 *

TOTAL DC LOSSES IN 2023: $1,097,519,376 **


* The Marvels is still making a small amount worldwide in theaters and will chip away at the Marvel figure.

** The entire $512 Million hole that Aquaman 2 has caused DC/Warner Bros. has already been added to this, so depending on how well it does in theaters this could be quite a bit less than it is right now.


Obviously Aquaman 2 is going to make some money back. At the very least I think it will make half the money it needs to break even worldwide even in the worst case scenario.

But it is funny looking at the figures right now and seeing that collectively all the comic book properties and Lucasfilm properties in 2023 have lost over $2 Billion.




Warner Bros. got really lucky it had Barbie in 2023.

My tables here are from all the way back on Halloween, so I don't know if WB is still the 2nd most profitable studio in 2023 anymore, but without Barbie's nearly 1.5 Billion gross vs the $145 Million Production Budget, it would have likely given Disney a run for its money for biggest loser in 2023.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


The only way Lucasfilm, the MCU (Both Disney Corp) and the DCU can come back from this years abortions is to create the 'next big thing', I think they've run out of stories AND talent. I don't think there's anybody that can create anything out of whole cloth at any of these studios, even if there's a good house cleaning at Disney Corp it'll take years to fix this mess. Maybe that's a good thing, time heals all wounds.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 8, 2023 6:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
The only way Lucasfilm, the MCU (Both Disney Corp) and the DCU can come back from this years abortions is to create the 'next big thing', I think they've run out of stories AND talent. I don't think there's anybody that can create anything out of whole cloth at any of these studios, even if there's a good house cleaning at Disney Corp it'll take years to fix this mess. Maybe that's a good thing, time heals all wounds.


Well those Lefties are always talking about burning everything down.

I wonder if they meant Hollywood from the inside. I kind of doubt they did.


I think it will be a good thing.

I've said many times before that Hollywood was creatively bankrupt long before it went woke, and I think a big contributor to the woke agenda even being able to get such a strong foothold was because they'd already shied away from trying anything new and decided to go with all the "safe" bets by rebooting everything they weren't actively making sequels that nobody asked for.

Maybe soon it's Hollywood itself that gets a reboot.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 22, 2023 11:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Now they're only predicting a $29-$40 Million opening for the 4-Day holiday weekend at BoxOfficePro.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/4-day-christmas-weekend-forecast-aquaman-
and-the-lost-kingdom-migration-and-the-color-purple-to-stand-out-for-holiday-frame/

Not good.

They've got Wonka at $27 to $37 Million this weekend, so Aquaman 2 might not even take 1st place.

It opened to $4.5 Million in Previews last night, which is better than Shazam II's $3.4 Million and Blue Beetle's $3.3 Million, but far less than The Flash's $9.7 Million preview. All 4 DC films this year were previewed in 3,400 theaters according to the-numbers.com.





--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 22, 2023 12:25 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Now they're only predicting a $29-$40 Million opening for the 4-Day holiday weekend at BoxOfficePro.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/4-day-christmas-weekend-forecast-aquaman-
and-the-lost-kingdom-migration-and-the-color-purple-to-stand-out-for-holiday-frame/

Not good.

They've got Wonka at $27 to $37 Million this weekend, so Aquaman 2 might not even take 1st place.

It opened to $4.5 Million in Previews last night, which is better than Shazam II's $3.4 Million and Blue Beetle's $3.3 Million, but far less than The Flash's $9.7 Million preview. All 4 DC films this year were previewed in 3,400 theaters according to the-numbers.com.





--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


The reviews I've seen are so bad they'll not going to be able to blame Amber for this abortion.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, December 22, 2023 4:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah. Really strange that we've gotten to the point where the movie reviewers regularly trash comic book movies.

We've known they've been shit for a long time, but the reviewers just finally figured it out.

I'm guessing that Disney and WB stopped paying them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 23, 2023 10:07 AM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah. Really strange that we've gotten to the point where the movie reviewers regularly trash comic book movies.

We've known they've been shit for a long time, but the reviewers just finally figured it out.

I'm guessing that Disney and WB stopped paying them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


They don't pay them, they give them 'access', this is why they're called 'access critics'. They call them to give them the latest poop, invite them to all the openings and parties and make them feel important. Grace Randolph is the worse, she gave 'Wonder Woman 1984' and "The Marvels' great reviews and refused to watch 'The Sound of Freedom'. There are others like Rodger Freedman who if you kiss his ass he'll give your play, film or TV show good reviews on his website, but Randolph is the worse.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, December 23, 2023 11:47 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Yeah. Really strange that we've gotten to the point where the movie reviewers regularly trash comic book movies.

We've known they've been shit for a long time, but the reviewers just finally figured it out.

I'm guessing that Disney and WB stopped paying them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


They don't pay them, they give them 'access', this is why they're called 'access critics'. They call them to give them the latest poop, invite them to all the openings and parties and make them feel important. Grace Randolph is the worse, she gave 'Wonder Woman 1984' and "The Marvels' great reviews and refused to watch 'The Sound of Freedom'. There are others like Rodger Freedman who if you kiss his ass he'll give your play, film or TV show good reviews on his website, but Randolph is the worse.



They pay them too. Recently there was the story that came out about paying reviewers to give good reviews on sites like RottenTomatoes. I'm assuming that even Disney Execs don't want every pink haired potbelly troll showing up to their parties.

But yeah. Access Media first made waves in the video games industry. I'm not sure if it happened with movies first, but it wasn't talked about all the time until they started pointing out all the good reviews that bad games were getting and it was discovered that if the magazines wanted early access to games in the future they had to keep giving high scores to games that shouldn't have gotten them.

But I don't see how that changes. That pre-dated woke culture and I don't see it going away after woke culture dies.

I'm just struggling to figure out why reviewers are actually giving bad reviews to stuff today that just a year ago they would have been giving great reviews to and calling us racists and sexists because we didn't agree with them.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 24, 2023 2:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's going to make more than BoxOfficePro's low end prediction of $29 Million for the 4-day. It's already got $28.1 Million for the 3-Day (including Thursday previews).

I doubt $12 Million worth of people are going to drop what they're doing to go see it on Christmas and get it up to BOP's high-end prediction of $40 Million.

Bruce had predicted $33.4 Million for the 3-Day weekend so it came up short of that by over $5 Million.


So it beat Blue Beetle's opening weekend by $3 Million, but it lost to Shazam II by $2 Million.







--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, December 26, 2023 8:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK




Quote:
There’s really no positive way to spin Aquaman 2’s debut. Not only is it less than half what Aquaman made on its opening weekend, it’s also less than half of Black Adam’s $67-million start in October last year, and less than Shazam! Fury of the Gods earned when it opened in March. At the time, Shazam! looked like an outlier, but it now looks like the harbinger of things to come. 2023 has been a dreadful year for super hero movies, which have collectively earned $1.44 billion at the domestic box office this year, compared to $2.05 billion last year. That $600-million decline is the reason we’ll see 2023 end up with less than $9 billion in total.


Two things that Bruce isn't telling you here...

1. 2022 was a terrible year for Comic Book movies, even though nobody in the media was admitting it yet.

2. There was only ONE DCEU movie released in 2022. Not FOUR. There was also The Batman, which is not DCEU.

There were 3 MCU movies in 2022, just as there were in 2023.

I want to check his math so we can try to figure out which movies he's actually talking about.... (Was last year's DC's League of Super Pets included? This year's Miles Morales 2?)

2022 DC (Domestic Figures)
The Batman - $369,345,583
Black Adam - $168,152,111

DC TOTAL (2 MOVIES): $537,497,694

2022 Marvel (Domestic Figures)
Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness - $411,331,607
Thor: Love and Thunder - $343,256,830
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $453,829,060

MARVEL TOTAL (3 MOVIES): $1,208,417,497


So that's only 1,745,915,191, which is still $304,084,809 short of Bruce's $2.05 Billion figure.

DC's League of Super Pets made $93,657,117 Domestic.

Oh, right... Sony made non-MCU Morbius. That was $73,865,530 Domestic.



Honestly... I can't find anymore that I think he'd be talking about. Is he counting Samaritan? Siri Asih? Secret Headquarters? Satria Dewa: Gatotkaca?

Who knows?


So I came up with $1,913,437,838 domestic in 2022 for 3 DC movies and 4 Marvel movies.



Now 2023...

DC 2023 (Domestic):
Shazam II: $57,638,006
The Flash: $108,133,313
Blue Beetle: $72,488,072
Aquaman II: $38,300,000

TOTAL (4 MOVIES): $276,559,391

Marvel 2023 (Domestic):
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: $214,506,909
Guardians of the Galaxy 3: $358,995,815
Miles Morales 2: $381,311,319
The Marvels: $84,425,017

TOTAL (4 MOVIES): $1,039,239,060


So that's $1,315,798,451 for the big 8 movies in 2023.

Bruce has $1.44 Billion as his figure so far this year, which is $124,201,549 more than what I've added up here.


Are we counting Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles? It made $118,613,586, so that would get us right about there. I think it's a little disingenuous to count TMNT these days though since it grew into so much more than that original comic book after all these years, but okay.



It's pathetic. 9 movies this year if you include TMNT for $1.44 Billion Domestic. But 7 movies last year for $1.91 Billion Domestic plus whatever other movie(s) bruce is counting to get 2022 up to $2.05 Billion is not much less pathetic either.



In 2019,

The Marvels - $426,829,839
Avengers: Endgame - $858,373,000
Spider-Man Far From Home - $390,532,085

These 3 movies alone accounted for $1,675,734,924 Domestic in 2019, which is more than $200 Million more than all 9 movies above did this year in the States. You also had DCEU's only release Shazam! which added another $140,371,656 in the states for $1,816,106,580 in only 4 movies.

Since Bruce is adding stuff that probably shouldn't be added to 2022 and 2023 (ie: Not MCU or DCEU), let's add these to 2019 too...

Joker - $335,451,311
Glass - $111,048,468

Now we're at $2,262,606,359 for 2019 with 6 movies.


So...

2019 (6 Movies): $2,262,606,359
2022 (7 Movies): $1,913,437,838
2023 (9 Movies): $1,434,412,037


And that's not even telling the full picture by a longshot, because the International numbers dwarf the US Box Office on Super Hero Movies. Not so much in 2023, but they sure as hell did in 2019.

Captain Marvel made $1,129,576,094 Worldwide, and End Game made $2,788,912,285 Worldwide, so both of those movies alone in 2019 made more money in total worldwide than all 16 movies from 2022 and 2023 made in the States, and only about $250 Million less than all 13 movies from 2019 and 2022 made in the states.



Your two lessons to learn and learn quick, Hollywood.

1. NOBODY IS GOING TO WATCH 10 SUPERHERO MOVIES IN ONE YEAR.

Knock it off. Dial it back. 3 is probably the sweet spot. 1 Marvel movie. 1 DC movie, and you can either fight over who makes the 3rd, or better yet let some Indie company make the 3rd one just for a change of pace.

2. SLASH THOSE BUDGETS.

Anything over $100 Million these days is asinine. Hell... All 4 of DC's 4 flicks would still have lost money in 2023 if their budgets were only $100 Million.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, January 27, 2024 10:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... Like I expected early in this thread, Aquaman 2 is still hanging on because it's pretty much still got no competition in the week leading up to the first of February.

Whether it was good planning or happenstance on Warner Bros.'s part, the timing of the release was excellent.

I'm amazed that 35 days into its release it's still in the top 10 at the 10th spot. It only took The Marvels 22 days to fall out of the top 10 (also in a weak box office period).

So far, Aquaman 2 has grossed as much in the US as The Marvels grossed internationally (not a good thing for comic books, really, but just showing how much better than The Marvels this movie is doing).

Shockingly, Aquaman 2 has put up $283 Million internationally. That is $155 more than Blue Beetle made worldwide. It's $151 Million more than Shazam II made worldwide. It's even $17 Million more than The Flash made worldwide.

Aquaman 2 has made $61 Million more internationally than Black Adam did in 2022, and has now made $8 Million more worldwide than Black Adam did.



All of this by no means constitutes a win for Aquaman or the DC franchise. It needed $512 Million to break even, and with $114 Million left to get there it's just as dead as I said it would be after the budget was announced. (It had it's first sub-Million Friday last week) But if I were an exec at Warner Bros. I would be considering this a huge win. This could have gone much worse for them, but in the year that only 1 out of 7 major comic book movies turned a profit, taking 3rd place and losing under $100 Million isn't terrible, especially when they've had major successes that can offset that loss. And if international numbers are still doing well there is still the possibility it takes 2nd place. (I haven't been tracking this one at all, so I have no idea how much it's still making internationally.





--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, January 27, 2024 2:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is available for free from the pirates:

https://yts.mx/movies/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-2023
https://psa.wf/movie/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-2023/
https://tpb29.ukpass.co/search.php?q=aquaman+and+the+lost+kingdom&
cat=0

How does Hollywood get people to pay for what is free? It is mysterious.

Somebody in Hollywood should make that story into a movie!

Then give the movie away for free.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, January 27, 2024 2:13 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
(I haven't been tracking this one at all, so I have no idea how much it's still making internationally.)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023)

Theatrical Performance
Domestic Box Office $115,932,034
International Box Office $283,395,741
Worldwide Box Office $399,327,775
Production Budget: $205,000,000 (worldwide box office is 1.9 times production budget)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Aquaman-and-the-Lost-Kingdom-(2023)#
tab=summary

Official Video Release: January 23rd, 2024 by Warner Home Video
Amazing business decision to allow only a month between theatrical release and home video.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, January 27, 2024 4:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is available for free from the pirates:

How does Hollywood get people to pay for what is free? It is mysterious.

Somebody in Hollywood should make that story into a movie!

Then give the movie away for free.


It already made the money it was going to make before the pirates released it, Commie.

Quote:
Whether it was good planning or happenstance on Warner Bros.'s part, the timing of the release was excellent.

I'm amazed that 35 days into its release it's still in the top 10 at the 10th spot. It only took The Marvels 22 days to fall out of the top 10 (also in a weak box office period).

So far, Aquaman 2 has grossed as much in the US as The Marvels grossed internationally (not a good thing for comic books, really, but just showing how much better than The Marvels this movie is doing).

Shockingly, Aquaman 2 has put up $283 Million internationally. That is $155 more than Blue Beetle made worldwide. It's $151 Million more than Shazam II made worldwide. It's even $17 Million more than The Flash made worldwide.

Aquaman 2 has made $61 Million more internationally than Black Adam did in 2022, and has now made $8 Million more worldwide than Black Adam did.



It just wasn't enough money to break even, which had nothing to do with pirates.

Quote:
All of this by no means constitutes a win for Aquaman or the DC franchise. It needed $512 Million to break even, and with $114 Million left to get there it's just as dead as I said it would be after the budget was announced. (It had it's first sub-Million Friday last week) But if I were an exec at Warner Bros. I would be considering this a huge win. This could have gone much worse for them, but in the year that only 1 out of 7 major comic book movies turned a profit, taking 3rd place and losing under $100 Million isn't terrible, especially when they've had major successes that can offset that loss. And if international numbers are still doing well there is still the possibility it takes 2nd place. (I haven't been tracking this one at all, so I have no idea how much it's still making internationally.


The possibility was likely very slim to begin with. It still needs to make roughly $77 Million more worldwide to take 2nd place from Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in terms of profitability in 2023.

With 35 days already behind it, the fact that it likely won't even cross $1 Million any day this weekend in the States at this point in its run is putting a lot of pressure on International audiences who have already ponied up 71% of the worldwide gross up to this point.

It's the 4th bomb from DC out of 4 for 2023. If it happens to not become the most successful failure for comic book movies in 2023, it has nothing to do with the pirates.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, January 29, 2024 11:30 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Aquaman 2 only fell -26% from last weekend in the US despite the pirates doing their pirate thing, once again proving that piracy has very little to do with box office receipts.

Current worldwide gross is now $412,602,000, which is just shy of $100 Million from breaking even. It won't get there, but it's still making money for WB.


What it does have a chance of doing is grossing more than Disney made worldwide with both Wish and The Marvel's combined. It is currently only $19,987,073 away from that feat, and with The Marvel's out of the theaters and Wish only pulling in $122k vs. Aquaman's $2,720,000 on its 6th weekend in the US, that is all but a guaranty at this point.

It would be an impressive feat in a year of DC failures, if WB hadn't broke the bank with a $205 Million production budget on this one. But compared to Disney's combined $450 Million budgets for the two movies that Aquaman 2 is going to outgross, I'm still impressed.

It's going to be a failure, but it's certainly made more money than I ever imagined it would. The Suits at WB have to be happy with the results even though they lost money after the way 2023 went.


--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, February 8, 2024 9:21 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Aquaman 2 only fell -26% from last weekend in the US despite the pirates doing their pirate thing, once again proving that piracy has very little to do with box office receipts.

Current worldwide gross is now $412,602,000, which is just shy of $100 Million from breaking even. It won't get there, but it's still making money for WB.


It's at $424,002,214 worldwide now, so add nearly 12 million in the last 10 days.

Aquaman 2 only fell -28% last weekend.


Quote:
What it does have a chance of doing is grossing more than Disney made worldwide with both Wish and The Marvel's combined. It is currently only $19,987,073 away from that feat, and with The Marvel's out of the theaters and Wish only pulling in $122k vs. Aquaman's $2,720,000 on its 6th weekend in the US, that is all but a guaranty at this point.


As of today, A2 still needs $15,373,435 to beat both The Marvels and Wish.

Wish has only been making a couple of bucks per day, so this must be some of Bruce's strange international accounting at play. Otherwise, A2 should only have been behind about $8 or $9 Million at this point.

At only $2 Million last weekend and between $100k and $200k on the weekdays in the States it's looking less likely this will happen now unless A2 gets some phantom accounting in its favor as well and/or it's still doing well overseas.

Quote:
It would be an impressive feat in a year of DC failures, if WB hadn't broke the bank with a $205 Million production budget on this one. But compared to Disney's combined $450 Million budgets for the two movies that Aquaman 2 is going to outgross, I'm still impressed.

It's going to be a failure, but it's certainly made more money than I ever imagined it would. The Suits at WB have to be happy with the results even though they lost money after the way 2023 went.



Much more importantly for Warner Bros. though, is that even though A2 is never going to make $512 Million to break even, the more A2 makes on the back end here the less Wonka needs to cover its (and The Color Purple's) losses.

Wonka is now at $572,537,373, which is $260,037,373 profit on a $125 Million budget.

Aquaman 2 has now lost WB only $88,497,786 on its $205 Million budget.

The Color Purple has lost WB $185,917,642 on its $100 Million budget.


Wonka has made enough right now to cover all but $14,378,055 of A2's and TCP's losses.

Even Wonka is really slowing down now finally, but it did pull in over $4 Million last weekend with only a -17% drop.

I think it's pretty safe to say that unless some of Bruce's phantom international accounting goes poorly for any of these three flicks that there's enough gas left in the tank for A2 and Wonka to bridge that $14 Million+ gap before they're out of theaters and the collective losses from WB's final 2023 trifecta won't result in even more money being used from their Barbie profits to cover any of these missteps. They'll likely even add money here to their 2023 win if the international accounting doesn't get fudged too hard in the negative.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, February 12, 2024 2:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A2's got $429,727,000 now. That's close to $6 million in the last 4 days. Still chugging along with the weak box office offerings so far in 2024, but it's just about over for this one I think.

It's now only $9,571,761 shy of grossing more than Wish and The Marvels combined, so it could still get that if Bruce doesn't magically find another $5 to $10 Million under the international couch cushions for Disney again.

Quote:
I think it's pretty safe to say that unless some of Bruce's phantom international accounting goes poorly for any of these three flicks that there's enough gas left in the tank for A2 and Wonka to bridge that $14 Million+ gap before they're out of theaters and the collective losses from WB's final 2023 trifecta won't result in even more money being used from their Barbie profits to cover any of these missteps. They'll likely even add money here to their 2023 win if the international accounting doesn't get fudged too hard in the negative.


Aquaman 2 has now lost WB only $82,773,000 on its $205 Million budget.

Wonka is now at $587,552,000, which is $275,052,000 profit on a $125 Million budget.

The Color Purple has lost WB $184,081,143 on its $100 Million budget.



Good news for Warner Bros. despite the two huge losses of Aquaman 2 and The Color Purple.

Wonka has now grossed enough money to cover both of their losses and still end up with a profit of $8,197,857, so there's no need to dip further into Barbie's profits to cover either of them.

That actually happened quicker than I thought it would.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, February 29, 2024 10:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Aquaman 2's worldwide gross is now $434,095,977. That's only a little over $4 Million more than 17 days ago when I said its run was just about over, so that tracks. As I said from the beginning, this was going to be the 4th DC movie to lose WB money in 2023, but it could have been much worse. It's not out of theaters yet, but it's lost WB $78,404,023. Maybe they only lose $75 Million on this one when its done.

It was so close to beating both Wish and The Marvels combined too... Only $4,561,419 shy of that, as of writing this. It's still well within the margin of error and it could possibly surprise if Bruce finds another $5 or $10 Million in the international couch cushions. We've seen that happen plenty of times before on movies that grossed less than this one has.

Quote:
I think it's pretty safe to say that unless some of Bruce's phantom international accounting goes poorly for any of these three flicks that there's enough gas left in the tank for A2 and Wonka to bridge that $14 Million+ gap before they're out of theaters and the collective losses from WB's final 2023 trifecta won't result in even more money being used from their Barbie profits to cover any of these missteps. They'll likely even add money here to their 2023 win if the international accounting doesn't get fudged too hard in the negative.


Aquaman 2 has now lost WB only $78,404,023 on its $205 Million budget.

Wonka is now at $618,315,940, which is $305,815,940 profit on a $125 Million budget.

The Color Purple has lost WB $182,480,809 on its $100 Million budget.


Warner Bros. Execs should be pretty happy with this outcome for the end of 2023. Wonka really carried the last 3 movies. Now they didn't have to dip further into Barbie's profits and they've actually profited $44,931,108 on the 3 films they still had showing in theaters into 2024.

Wonka probably wasn't that good, but WB really lucked out on the timing here with the extremely weak 2024 box office in January and February as well as the two major Disney flops Wish and The Marvels that should have put up a fight but died very early on in their box office runs.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, March 2, 2024 4:46 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


$433.3M global



https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31084-aquaman-and-the-lost-ki
ngdom-3073m-overseas-4302m-worldwide/

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Aquaman 2's worldwide gross is now $434,095,977.


probably close to the final number, there might be a Japan release due?



Aquaman 2 VS Aquaman At Worldwide Box Office: Jason Momoa-Led Sequel Ends Its Theatrical Run, Earns 62% Less Than Its Predecessor!

https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/aquaman-2-vs-aquaman-at-worldwide-bo
x-office-jason-momoa-led-sequel-ends-its-theatrical-run-earns-62-less-than-its-predecessor/

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, March 2, 2024 4:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
$433.3M global



https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31084-aquaman-and-the-lost-ki
ngdom-3073m-overseas-4302m-worldwide/

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Aquaman 2's worldwide gross is now $434,095,977.


probably close to the final number,


Yeah. There's always variance between websites, but it is usually not too much. Though it was a failure, this movie has made enough money where I could see it losing or gaining another $10 Million after it's done. We never actually get any explanation why this happens, but we've seen it happen quite a few times before. We can only speculate why it is.

Quote:
there might be a Japan release due?


No. It did come out super late in Japan, but I just checked and it opened on 01/12/2024 in Japan. Bruce only has reporting from Japan for the first weekend though, with the report date being 01/16/24. It was only $1.7 Million though, so Japan isn't going to cover the $78 Million or so that this one would need to break even.

Huge loss on WB's 4th comic book movie of 2023 here like all the rest of them, but it could have been a LOT worse than this. WB really lucked out that the first two months of 2024 releases have been terrible all around. It didn't help The Color Purple out at all, but Wonka made WAY more money than it had any right to and A2 probably made about $100 Million more than it would have if it had any competition at all.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Hollywood's Abysmal 2024 in Numbers
Fri, November 22, 2024 17:45 - 156 posts
Good Low Budget and Independent Flicks
Fri, November 22, 2024 15:05 - 152 posts
A cancellation wave is coming, but it is not a woke one.
Fri, November 22, 2024 09:20 - 13 posts
Elevation
Thu, November 21, 2024 22:34 - 1 posts
Horror movies and Scary Tv making a comeback?
Thu, November 21, 2024 11:36 - 41 posts
Beatlejuice Beatlejuice blows everything else out of the water this weekend.
Thu, November 21, 2024 07:54 - 45 posts
Reagan
Mon, November 18, 2024 12:25 - 8 posts
'Napoleon' liked, disliked ...or ...has Ridley Scott Lost the Ability to Make Great Movies?
Mon, November 18, 2024 07:26 - 22 posts
What Films Are You Looking Forward To In Cinema 2024?
Mon, November 18, 2024 07:22 - 88 posts
Hollywood Fatigue...people flee California and is Hollyweird finished?
Sat, November 16, 2024 19:49 - 18 posts
The Snow White Failure Thread
Sat, November 16, 2024 16:20 - 17 posts
The Joker 2: The Musical Doo Deux failure thread
Sun, November 10, 2024 12:35 - 84 posts
 VIEW MORE TOPICS 

FFF.NET SOCIAL