2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 29, 2025 13:51
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Saturday, July 26, 2025 11:22 AM

The FantasticFour: FirstSteps
1st Friday

Superman $56,109,755 Minecraft $57,113,324 Fantastic Four $57,000,000
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Superma
n-(2025)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

However overseas reports and gossip are bad, Trump tariff might have backfired or else people just have Superhero fatigue for international cinema numbers

Strong domestic numbers

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Flying ‘Superman’s Route Toward Great $125M Opening – Box Office

https://deadline.com/2025/07/box-office-fantastic-four-first-steps-123
6468412/

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Saturday, July 26, 2025 9:23 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Fantastic Four First Steps is doing good but more talk of it struggling in Asia

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32965-the-fantastic-four-firs
t-steps/page/7/#comments

Jurassic World Rebirth (2025) vs. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2025) vs. The Batman (2022)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Jurassi
c-World-Rebirth-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)/Batman-The-(2021)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Saturday, July 26, 2025 9:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

$125 is still not a great opening. During Marvel's heyday, that number would have been the biggest flop for them by far all year. It only looks good when all the other comic book flicks you put out all year were flops and the only comic movie your competition put out all year was a minor success.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, July 27, 2025 6:59 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

Fantastic Four - This Movie Shocked Me

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Monday, July 28, 2025 7:14 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

comicbook super hero movies are back! but is that a good thing?

Fantastic Four, similar numbers to the movies ThorRagnarok, Iron Man 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Spider-Man Homecoming

https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/fantastic-four-first-steps-bo
x-office-opening-weekend-1236471441/

2006 vs 2013
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd1715336708/?ref_=bo_shs_sd

How important is international box office to Hollywood?
https://stephenfollows.com/p/important-international-box-office-hollyw
ood
The first time international box office revenues for Studio movies surpassed domestic was in 1997, mostly due to the strong global performance of just three films: Titanic (70% of the global intake came internationally), Men in Black (57%) and The Lost World (63%). But it wasn't until 2003 when international revenue dominated the domestic market for good

China - $6.5M / $4.5M
Asia/Oceania - $36M / $32.5M
EU - $27.5M / $36.5M
LATAM - $23M / $27M
https://x.com/meJat32/status/1949508984035238059
quote
Asia is a complete disaster for F4. In the good old days, it would have earned over $125M in Asia & China.
In contrast, the EU was bad for Supe with exception of UK.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:
I'll say 750-760,
Domestic '390' plus 360 overseas or maybe international numbers even lower

its certainly not 40-35% USA and 60-65% international

I agree with you here. $750 sounds about right. It's not going to go over $800 unless a summer miracle happens for it and everything else ends up flopping and people are still watching this thing well into next month.

its really starting to drop now, it struggled in Asia, could it go as low as 650? Lower again if numbers keep falling like a rock?

'Superman' makes $24.9M in 3rd weekend, crossed 500 Million on international numbers...possibly a lower 675 finish...I will stay on my original prediction 750

so its almost 300 Mil Domestic so 60% of the money is Domestic and 40% International

Wednesday
$6,637,061 /
$259,851,416

2nd Thursday
$4,790,162 /
$264,641,578

3rd Friday
$7,100,000 /
$271,742,000

3rd Saturday
$9,850,000 /
$281,592,000

3rd Sunday
$7,910,000 /
$289,502,000

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Monday, July 28, 2025 7:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

We'll see. The-Numbers has been down for a while, so I can't really check anything now. Too much of a variance between them and what BoxOfficeMojo shows for me to make any meaningful comparison.

Not really a big deal in the end, if they're not lying about the $225 Million budget. They only need about $60 Million more to cover that before they make at least some money. What's the last DC comic book movie that can say that it made money? I forget at this point.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, July 29, 2025 7:24 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Warner Bros. & Apple's F1 The Movie grossed $6.31M this weekend (from 2,615 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $165.66M.

Daily Grosses
FRI - $1.826M
SAT - $2.502M
SUN - $1.977M

https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3lv2ddfyzus2
u

Eternity an upcoming American romantic comedy-fantasy film about dead people with romance and jokes?

Superman overseas is suffering, it is having trouble finding money at the International Box Office. Logan had a bad domestic but very good overseas, Iron Man 2 had a good overseas almost 50/50 The Batman good overseas, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 had a very strong overseas, A Minecraft Movie very strong overseas, Jurassic World Rebirth very strong overseas, for whatever reason the New Superman and New Fantastic Four seem to be crashing overseas...superhero fatigue in Asia and Europe?

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Tuesday, July 29, 2025 1:51 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

in a smaller more limited comicbook market for theatrical films the two movies are definitely eating each other?

Fantastic 4 Opens Strong But Superman May Be Stronger

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