CINEMA

Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, April 14, 2024 16:43
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VIEWED: 4031
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Monday, November 6, 2023 10:45 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well, well, well...

I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE:


Pirates make EVERY movie free, stupid.

Not just in America, but the entire world, stupid.

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Tuesday, November 7, 2023 12:31 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well, well, well...

I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE:


Pirates make EVERY movie free, stupid.

Not just in America, but the entire world, stupid.
The Pirated version is only in English. There are no subtitle files for other languages. Mexico and Brazil can't use the English-only version. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=in
ternational

6ix, you are stupider than you can know, which must feel great since you can keep your superiority complex going until it suddenly kills you. By that, I mean stupid people tend to lose years of life.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, November 7, 2023 1:32 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well, well, well...

I don't know what happened in America that sent FNAF straight down the tubes after Tuesday, but it appears that the rest of the world didn't agree with that decision.
Not a decision. Pirates did their thing to make the movie available for FREE:


Pirates make EVERY movie free, stupid.

Not just in America, but the entire world, stupid.
The Pirated version is only in English. There are no subtitle files for other languages. Mexico and Brazil can't use the English-only version. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=in
ternational



Your pirated version is only in English.

This movie was available to stream for free on Peacock since Day 1, retard. That's how it was pirated on day 1, retard.

There are also many people outside of America who speak English, simply because such a disproportionate amount of worthwhile movies and TV shows for many decades came from Hollywood.

I brought up in the last post that you quoted that it's possible this was not being streamed in countries outside of the US by Peacock, which would mean that their only option to see the movie outside of piracy (or, assuming Peacock is even available in other countries by using a VPN with an American server and an English only version) would be in the theaters. The fact that you could stream FNAF at home or download a pirated copy in the US both from Day 1 didn't stop people from going out to see it on the first weekend.

If this wasn't available to stream outside of the US, there is a much higher probability that people went to the theaters to see it because of the lack of streaming options than the diversity in languages in pirated versions. The same people who were pirating everything else were going to pirate this too. People who don't pirate everything else weren't going to pirate FNAF.

Quote:
6ix, you are stupider than you can know, which must feel great since you can keep your superiority complex going until it suddenly kills you. By that, I mean stupid people tend to lose years of life.


Dumb shit like this means nothing coming from the 2nd stupidest person I've ever known other than Ted.


Why don't you tell us again about how Disney is making all the right decisions or how it's tied to the S&P 500.

You're wrong about literally everything, especially when it comes to movies. I'd suggest you exit the CINEMA threads now and go back to your political cultist behavior where you only embarrass yourself in front of 6 other people on a daily basis.

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Tuesday, November 7, 2023 10:43 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 3rd):
Still though, even if it doesn't join the 1,000% club, 900% and a 6th or 7th place finish for the year is pretty damn good for a movie that critics went out of their way to hate on while being available to watch at home since day one. It would rank 4th among the 2023 Horror releases while grossing more than all of them did and only being so low because of it's $25 Million budget. Talk to Me had a budget of only $4.5 Million. M3GAN's budget was $12 Million and Insidious' budget was $16 Million.

Also, it would be the 2nd highest grossing Horror movie of 2023, only behind The Nun II's $265 Million current take... a feat that it should accomplish before the beginning of Weekend 3 if it doesn't succeed in that by Sunday.


Well... Now we know because of the high International numbers that FNAF is going to at least get 900% despite the huge drop in Domestic numbers last weekend, some outfits are already predicting that FNAF has a very good chance of being the #1 Grossing Horror flick of 2023.

The Nun II is just under $269 Million, while FNAF sits at just under $216 Million. I haven't been paying mind to the International additions to The Nun II from week to week, so I don't know if its run is done worldwide or not, but it's only grossing in the 10's of thousands on the weekend in the States now, so it's just about finished here.

$53 Million is still a lot to gain considering the massive drop in the US over the weekend. I said before I think it makes about $10 to $15 Million in the US over 7 days through Weekend 3 though, so that would only be $37 to $43 Million more. Even with a good International take next weekend, I don't see this happening that early.

There are far too many variables at play to really give a prediction on this, but if we see the International market have a more traditional decline, and especially if the US market stabilizes now and goes back to a more traditional decline from how far and quickly it has fallen, I think there's a pretty good chance.

At $269 Million, FNAF will join the 1,000% club and land in 6th place for 2023 above Barbie and Oppenheimer with 1,076%.

It would need $295 Million to tie with Insidious, and I think that's probably out of the question. If it were to manage that feat, that's as far as it's going to go because it's never going to see the 1,362% it would need to bump the Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place.




In any event, this $25M indie destroyed Killers of the Flower Moon both in the US and Worldwide. And if it manages to beat The Nun II it will have outgrossed 3 out of the 5 Super Hero movies that have come out so far this year.

Can it take down The Marvels too?

Probably not... But I'm really looking forward to the next few weeks so we can finally watch The Marvels, Songbirds and Snakes and Wish fail at the box office.



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Tuesday, November 7, 2023 9:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm actually quite surprised at how much this has made internationally. The first weekend looked to almost mirror my prediction for Domestic to International share, but after a steep drop of -60% for the 2nd weekend in the US, the drop internationally either wasn't that large or it had opened a week late in numerous other territories to make up for it. Right now, it's $47 Million Domestic and $56 Million International (or 45.4% Domestic / 54.6% International). The international figures are actually better than that because there have been 5 days of Domestic numbers added that won't be added for the International numbers until Monday or Tuesday.

This is still going to be a collisal flop, but it has already pulled in $104 Million worldwide without taking this weeks Internationals into account.

I think it's pretty safe to say that it will beat Shazam II's $132 Million, so it's going to do better than I thought it would thanks to the international audience.

There's no way it's hitting $200 Million like that quoted article said it might, but it probably does somewhere around that $150 Million I stated in reply, give or take about $5 Million.


After the weekend and the international tally we're at $119.6 Million with a 44.2% Domestic / 55.8% International split on Killers.

That's only $10 Million added to the International numbers from the previous weekend, so unless the numbers reporting is strange for this one, it's no longer doing very well overseas.

Killers had its first sub-Million Domestic day on Monday with only $674k.

At nearly $120 Million already I still think that grossing more moneythan Shazam II should be quite easy for Killers, but I still don't think it will beat $150 Million, or 75% of its production budget.


At 60% of its production budget currently, it's moved up from last place on the 2023 list to 57th place, right behind Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken's 66%.

My initial prediction for Killers was that it would match Ruby Gillman. That was before it did far better internationally than I thought it would. If it hits around my $150 Million target, it will move up to 53rd place for 2023, right above Strays, and considerably below Shazam II.

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Wednesday, November 8, 2023 11:13 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 16th):
The Wokecercist seems to be doing pretty well overseas with over $40 Million of its $85 Million current total. It's made 283% of its production budget back so far, which already means that it's a winner. It's sitting at 21st place now if my previous statements on the top 20 are correct.

I don't imagine that Killers of the Flower Moon are going to hurt it any more than it hurts itself next weekend. Five Nights at Freddies will almost certainly put an end to it the following weekend though. Priscilla (the new Elvis-related biopic about Elvis being a pedophile) probably won't hurt anything the week after that, except possible overlap with the Killers of the Flower Moon audience.



Obviously, FNAF has been beating Exorcist: Believer into the ground since it came out. But it had pretty much fallen off a cliff before that. I don't think Killers ever hurt Wokecercist's numbers. It is at 436% now, so it does move up two spots on the chart above the similarly named horror movie The Pope's Exorcist and John Wick: Chapter 4 for 17th place.

Similarly, I can't really tell if Priscilla did any damage to the mortally-wounded-out-of-the-gates Killers of the Flower Moon either. Killers seems to have stopped the bleeding with only a -26% drop on Weekend 3 after a -60% drop on Weekend 2 and an abysmal Opening Weekend. But I can't say whether Priscilla had any impact here or not. Nobody is going to the theaters right now.

Last weekend's total box office was only $56.65 Million. The weekend prior when FNAF opened, the total box office was $118.75 Million, with $80 Million of that going to FNAF. The weekend before when Killers opened and Eras Tour had its 2nd Weekend showing, the total box office was only $76.9 Million.

Priscilla is a complete non-entity. On a $20 Million budget, it's only made $5.08 Million since it went wide. Its opening weekend in only 4 theaters looked very admirable with over $33k per theater, but that didn't translate well to a wide release. Even though technically a movie in 600 theaters is "Wide", Priscilla's 1,359 theaters is very small for a wide release compared to most blockbusters getting over 3,500 theaters and most mega-blockbusters get near or over 4,000 theaters.

Priscilla is going to just be forgotten. In fact, it won't even come close to making my list at all since it's not going to gross anywhere near what it would need to make the Top 100 worldwide flicks of 2023.



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Thursday, November 9, 2023 12:27 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well FNAF looks to have gained another $3 Million on Monday and Tuesday. With those kinds of numbers it should probably easily get $12 Million by Sunday night. It could possibly see its first sub-Million day or possibly two of them before the weekend, but it should be close to already having $5 Million before the weekend begins.

There appears to be another $3 Million International reported that wasn't reported on Monday as well, so FNAF is already sitting at $223 Million.

That's 892% of its Production Budget.

It will probably hit 900% before the weekend even begins.


If it sees another $7 Million this weekend or more and $13 Million international, it will be at 980%. That would be extremely low compared to last weekend internationally though, so there's a very good chance now that FNAF joins the 1,000% club Worldwide when the international numbers come in on Monday.

I do believe it will be the fastest movie to have done so all year if this happens.

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Thursday, November 9, 2023 6:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Well FNAF looks to have gained another $3 Million on Monday and Tuesday. With those kinds of numbers it should probably easily get $12 Million by Sunday night. It could possibly see its first sub-Million day or possibly two of them before the weekend, but it should be close to already having $5 Million before the weekend begins.


Yup. Just barely. FNAF made $947,635 on Wednesday. It will make less than this tonight.

It won't make enough tonight to round up and get 900%. It will begin the weekend with 896%.

It won't quite make $5 Million before the weekend begins, but it will easily have $4.5 Million through Thursday.


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Sunday, November 12, 2023 11:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 7th):
After the weekend and the international tally we're at $119.6 Million with a 44.2% Domestic / 55.8% International split on Killers.

That's only $10 Million added to the International numbers from the previous weekend, so unless the numbers reporting is strange for this one, it's no longer doing very well overseas.

Killers had its first sub-Million Domestic day on Monday with only $674k.

At nearly $120 Million already I still think that grossing more moneythan Shazam II should be quite easy for Killers, but I still don't think it will beat $150 Million, or 75% of its production budget.


At 60% of its production budget currently, it's moved up from last place on the 2023 list to 57th place, right behind Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken's 66%.

My initial prediction for Killers was that it would match Ruby Gillman. That was before it did far better internationally than I thought it would. If it hits around my $150 Million target, it will move up to 53rd place for 2023, right above Strays, and considerably below Shazam II.


$4,650,000 for the weekend, and $126,730,599 total worldwide. It's only fallen around 27% to 32% per week since the low initial box office and the massive first to second week drop, which really doesn't happen very often. It currently stands at 63.5% of the Production Budget.

We'll see what the international numbers bring, but it should have grossed more than Shazam II and have a higher percentage than Ruby Gillman once they come in.

Since the movie decided to grow some legs, I was probably wrong about $150 Million too. There's no way this thing is going to get its production budget back, but it might be closer to $200 Million than $150 Million worldwide depending on how long it's in theaters and if it can maintain some of the international take for another month or more.




Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 6th):
Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer.


It actually made more on Thursday than it did on Wednesday. That's pretty unusual, but it's likely do to Veterans day. It only had one sub-Million day this week.

Projections for the weekend are in and it's another $9 Million, with the total for the week at $15,074,065, so just a little more than my high-end prediction if the projections are accurate.

FNAF is now at 936%, which is only 12% behind Oppenheimer and 62% behind Barbie.

It easily beats Oppenheimer once the international numbers roll in today or tomorrow.

Will it get the $15 Million internationally it needs to beat Barbie this weekend too?

Very likely, given that it doesn't look like it was released for streaming outside of the US (I'm only making an assumption here, but that's the only way I can explain the steep dropoff in the US while the international box office hasn't declined nearly as rapidly).


It's gunning for Insidious now for 5th place.


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Sunday, November 12, 2023 7:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 7th):
After the weekend and the international tally we're at $119.6 Million with a 44.2% Domestic / 55.8% International split on Killers.

That's only $10 Million added to the International numbers from the previous weekend, so unless the numbers reporting is strange for this one, it's no longer doing very well overseas.

Killers had its first sub-Million Domestic day on Monday with only $674k.

At nearly $120 Million already I still think that grossing more moneythan Shazam II should be quite easy for Killers, but I still don't think it will beat $150 Million, or 75% of its production budget.


At 60% of its production budget currently, it's moved up from last place on the 2023 list to 57th place, right behind Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken's 66%.

My initial prediction for Killers was that it would match Ruby Gillman. That was before it did far better internationally than I thought it would. If it hits around my $150 Million target, it will move up to 53rd place for 2023, right above Strays, and considerably below Shazam II.


$4,650,000 for the weekend, and $126,730,599 total worldwide. It's only fallen around 27% to 32% per week since the low initial box office and the massive first to second week drop, which really doesn't happen very often. It currently stands at 63.5% of the Production Budget.

We'll see what the international numbers bring, but it should have grossed more than Shazam II and have a higher percentage than Ruby Gillman once they come in.

Since the movie decided to grow some legs, I was probably wrong about $150 Million too. There's no way this thing is going to get its production budget back, but it might be closer to $200 Million than $150 Million worldwide depending on how long it's in theaters and if it can maintain some of the international take for another month or more.


I'm going to have to check this one again tomorrow. It's possible the international numbers were already accounted for when I wrote this post, and if that's the case I think I might have been giving it more credit than it deserves. Even though we've since gotten the International totals for The Marvels and Five Nights at Freddy's since I wrote this in the morning, Killers remains unchanged at $126 Million right now. I wasn't tracking the international numbers close enough to know if they've been updated already this week or not.

63.5% would keep it at 57th place right below Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken for another week.

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 6th):
Oppenheimer is still in play. Perhaps even Barbie too. It all depends on the International mood for FNAF on Weekend 3, since I don't imagine it making more than $10 to $15 Million more by next Sunday here in the states. If it got $12 Million by then, without International Numbers, it would be at 916%, which is only 28% behind Oppenheimer.


It actually made more on Thursday than it did on Wednesday. That's pretty unusual, but it's likely do to Veterans day. It only had one sub-Million day this week.

Projections for the weekend are in and it's another $9 Million, with the total for the week at $15,074,065, so just a little more than my high-end prediction if the projections are accurate.

FNAF is now at 936%, which is only 12% behind Oppenheimer and 62% behind Barbie.

It easily beats Oppenheimer once the international numbers roll in today or tomorrow.

Will it get the $15 Million internationally it needs to beat Barbie this weekend too?

Very likely, given that it doesn't look like it was released for streaming outside of the US (I'm only making an assumption here, but that's the only way I can explain the steep dropoff in the US while the international box office hasn't declined nearly as rapidly).


It's gunning for Insidious now for 5th place.


FNAF easily got what it needed to get this weekend internationally. It leapfrogs up our list to 6th Place for 2023 above both Oppenheimer and Barbie.

With just $65k shy of $252 Million Worldwide, FNAF officially joins the 1,000% club at 1,008%!

Congrats to everyone involved!

It needs 157% (roughly $40 Million more) to beat Insidious: The Red Door.

It made $15 Million in the US and another $18 Million Worldwide this week.

That actually was a fairly sizable drop on the International front from last weekend. It may or may not have the legs it needs to take 5th place, but because of a virtual 50/50 Domestic/International split, a 1,000% finish after the monster 2nd week drop in the states is still something they should be very happy about.


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Friday, November 17, 2023 7:27 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It made $15 Million in the US and another $18 Million Worldwide this week.

That actually was a fairly sizable drop on the International front from last weekend. It may or may not have the legs it needs to take 5th place, but because of a virtual 50/50 Domestic/International split, a 1,000% finish after the monster 2nd week drop in the states is still something they should be very happy about.


FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.

There must have been some stray internationals that came in late for that increase from 1,008% to 1,044% since FNAF is only getting a 4% bump for every Million with the $25 Million Production Budget and it's only made little over $1.5 Million domestic between Monday and Wednesday this week.

So this probably means an extra $7 Million or so international on top of the $18 Million international recorded on Sunday. This would be more in line with what I would expect the movie to do from the previous weekend, with somewhere in the area of a 50% to 60% drop. It's kind of hard to tell on this one since this isn't the first week it's gotten international numbers updated piecemeal.

It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.

There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.

Had they not made the nonsensical decision to stream it on Peacock in the US from day one, this thing might have beat M3GAN's 1,508% for 3rd place in 2023. That near 50/50 Domestic/International split may have been 65/35 otherwise.

But what are you gonna do? The Suits are gonna Suit.

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Sunday, November 19, 2023 4:48 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Killers gets bumped up to 73% this weekend. This puts it in a virtual tie with Haunted Mansion for 54th place. No sense in doing any math on that one since it's just temporary. HM isn't making anything anymore and Killers still will make money and move up. Next spot is Strays with 77% but after that it's got a Sisyphean hill to climb to reach Shazam II and Blue Beetle with 106% and 107%, respectively.



FNAF didn't manage getting the low end of my $4 to $6 Million prediction from Thursday through Sunday, but it came close with $3,855,360. If projections were just a little bit low it hits $4 Million. I'm sure that 4 new wide releases this weekend contributed to this, and it didn't help that one of them was a horror flick.

Worldwide total is now at $271,841,000, so it's now at 1088%

I'm unsure if they managed to add all the international numbers already this week or if we're going to see more down the line like we have the past few weeks here. I predicted $12 Million more international by Friday of this week, and so far this looks to be half of that $12 Million prediction. I expect to see another bump later in the week for the international numbers.

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Monday, November 20, 2023 7:11 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th):
FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.

...

It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.

There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.

Had they not made the nonsensical decision to stream it on Peacock in the US from day one, this thing might have beat M3GAN's 1,508% for 3rd place in 2023. That near 50/50 Domestic/International split may have been 65/35 otherwise.

But what are you gonna do? The Suits are gonna Suit.


A second round of Internationals must have come in early for FNAF.

It's now sitting at $284 Million, rounding down, or 1,136% as of Monday the 20th (not including Monday's Domestic BO).

Can it hit $300 Million and outright box out The Marvels and even Songbirds and Snakes from ever catching up to it?

It cost 11 times less than The Marvels to make and 4 times less than Songbirds and Snakes (At least with the Production Budgets that Disney and Lionsgate admit to).


FNAF is now only 29% shy of overtaking Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place in 2023 (Around $8 Million). It should easily have this by some time next weekend.

At that point it only needs another $8 Million worldwide to cross $300 Million. I think it's got an excellent chance to reach this milestone.

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Tuesday, November 21, 2023 7:08 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


The choice for watching Napoleon - either the shorter version at the movies or the 4-hour-long version at home which, hopefully, expands on truncated story arcs and underdeveloped characters:

In the absence of any sense of how French society at large responded to the tumultuous era of Napoleon’s reign, the audience is stuck with two ultimately unsatisfying choices: We can marvel in extreme closeup at the dysfunctionality of its subject’s private life, or marvel in extreme long-shot at the brutality of armed conflict in the early industrial era.

The film’s biggest flaw is this lack of engagement with the political meaning of Napoleon’s outsized achievements and even more outsized failures. This isn’t some niggling complaint about historical accuracy. Director Scott is free to compress timelines and concoct colorful details to his heart’s content, but he leaves a huge storytelling opportunity on the table by not taking time to explore the intense debates that raged around the Corsican upstart in his own lifetime. Was he a revolutionary reformer or a merciless autocrat? How did he win the personal admiration even of many who opposed him politically?

I found myself hoping in vain to understand how such an obviously flawed and self-serving man as Napoleon became a hero to so many. Maybe the four-hour-long director’s cut, which is scheduled to be released on Apple TV+ after the film’s theatrical run, will expand on some of these truncated story arcs and underdeveloped characters.

https://slate.com/culture/2023/11/napoleon-movie-2023-joaquin-phoenix-
ridley-scott-gladiator.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, November 21, 2023 6:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm sure your broke ass will be providing a pirate link for it soon.

I wonder how many tax dollars you've not paid for all those movies, books and comic books you pirated.

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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 6:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Killers of the Flower Moon is not impressing much at the box office anymore with under $300k per day on Monday and Tuesday after a $2 Million weekend. And now there's just so much competition out there too. The 3rd and 4th weekend drops were only -26% and -33%, but last weekend's drop was -57%.



My original prediction for Killers on October 18th was $132 Million, but I incorrectly gauged international interest, assuming a 75/25 to 70/30 split Domestic/International split, and as of today it is enjoying a 43.8/56.2 D/I split.

I was right that it wouldn't get the 30/70 split that Wolf of Wall Street got, but it came far closer to it than I would have ever imagined it would given the subject matter.


I upped my prediction to say $150 Million on November 2nd, but it appears I was probably wrong there too because of the international take. It currently sits at $146.3 Million Worldwide. Even if it didn't play another single day outside of the US and only got 2.5 more weeks here, it would probably hit $150 Million.


I don't feel like doing any math on this and I'll just say I don't expect it to do above $175 Million to be safe. If it makes it there, it's 87.5% of the Production Budget, putting it above Strays and far below Shazam II and Blue Beetle. I'd guess that with all the new movies that have come out since my last table update it would put it somewhere around 57th place on the list for 2023.

This movie is going to end up losing $300-$325 Million by the time it exits theaters.


Not quite Indy 5 levels of flop, but more like The Marvels levels of flop.



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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 10:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th):
FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.

There must have been some stray internationals that came in late for that increase from 1,008% to 1,044% since FNAF is only getting a 4% bump for every Million with the $25 Million Production Budget and it's only made little over $1.5 Million domestic between Monday and Wednesday this week.

So this probably means an extra $7 Million or so international on top of the $18 Million international recorded on Sunday. This would be more in line with what I would expect the movie to do from the previous weekend, with somewhere in the area of a 50% to 60% drop. It's kind of hard to tell on this one since this isn't the first week it's gotten international numbers updated piecemeal.

It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.


FNAF continues to come in ahead of schedule on my predictions and it keeps posting more international numbers with no rhyme or reason.

Once we have tomorrows numbers, it should be just above $290 Million worldwide, or 1,160% of the Production Budget. It may or may not get the $500 Million on top of that it needs to get another 4% bump and take 5th place from Insidious before the weekend, but when I made that prediction only 5 days ago I thought it would only be around 1,100% worldwide AFTER this Holiday weekend.

Quote:
There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.


I still think this statement is true, but like Sound of Freedom did, FNAF keeps surprising me.

It would have to get $341 Million Worldwide to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and $51 Million would be a literal miracle to pull off. It would have to get to around $320 Million and show that it still had some international legs at that point for me to even entertain that idea.




But at this point, I'm there's no way The Marvels is ever going to catch up with it, and I'm just about 100% sure that Songbirds and Snakes won't even come close either. We'll see what this weekend holds for Wish, but wouldn't that be something if Five Nights at Freddy's with its $25 Million budget beats all 3 of them?



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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 10:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh shit...

The game has changed completely here, regarding FNAF!


My rule from the start is that I always use Bruce's Production Budget number for a movie when he has made it available before going to alternative sources such as BoxOfficeMojo or Deadline/Variety.

Bruce didn't have the PB for FNAF before, but I just noticed today that he must have added that info in and the budget according to him is only $20 Million, and not $25 Million.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=su
mmary


Forget everything I said before about whether or not it beats The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place because it already has.

FNAF now has a 1,450% for WW Gross vs. Production Budget.




Not only is it in 4th place, but by the end of this weekend it's easily going to take 3rd place from M3GAN (which is at 1,508%).



We're now looking at a possibility that FNAF even displaces Sound of Freedom for 2nd place. It would need a WW Gross of $342 Million to break even with SoF, and $343 Million to beat it (Assuming SoF doesn't make another $1 Million Internationally). I don't think this is a real possibility, but this movie has been nothing if not full of surprises up until this point.

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Thursday, November 23, 2023 11:18 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Damn...

Sorry Joaquin. Your Napoleon movie cost $200 Million to make and is going in the Highbrow Heap of failures right on top of Killers of the Flower Moon. These budgets are stupid, and I'm quite certain that the failure of this movie is not going to be any fault of your own.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-thanksgiving-123
5634036/

$28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.

Killers of the Flower Moon which also cost $200M to make only made $23.25 Million on Opening Weekend and after 5 weeks has still failed to make back even 75% of the Production Budget Worldwide.

Napoleon may do better, given the kick start of the 5-Day Holiday Weekend, but probably not by much if it does. The audience and critics ratings are both in the middling 60's here, which doesn't bode well.


I really hope that 2023 has taught a lot of lessons all around and gets the studios to put their budgets in check. Especially in this economy.

Universal doesn't really need to learn that lesson, aside from the mistake that was Renfield, and the stupid-stupid-stupid expensive Fast X. They've spent somewhere in the area of $1 Billion on Production Budgets for their 2023 slate, but they've pulled in around $4 Billion Worldwide Gross from them.

Fast X is their lesson, since the PB of that movie was about 1/3 of the entire production budgets for all of their movies in 2023. If somebody pitches Fast XI to you, tell them you won't give them more than $100 Million on the budget and Vin Diesel can go screw himself if he doesn't like what the pay is.


The only reason Lionsgate isn't dying like Disney this year is because they've kept all of their movies to $100 Million or less like Universal did (outside of Fast X). They're still going to lose 2023, but it's not nearly as bad as it could have been.


Thanks to Barbie, Warner Bros. is still going to come out on top even if Aquaman 2 is a major flop, but they'd better learn that if they're going to spend even as low as $104 Million on a superhero flick going forward it had damned well better be a good one. They would have had a banner year with Barbie had most of the Barbie profits not gone to covering their losses on Shazam II, Blue Beetle, The Flash and (probably) Aquaman 2.


If it weren't for the huge upcoming loss of Napoleon, I would have said that Sony can just keep doing its thing the way it's doing it. They're still going to be a winner at the end of 2023, but Napoleon is going to take a monster bite out of their otherwise current half-Billion+ profit.


There's no hope for Disney in 2024. They don't appear to have learned any lessons yet. The best decision they've made is to not release any Superhero movies outside of Deadpool 3 in 2024.

Maybe they can turn it around by 2025, but with them giving Dave Filoni a big promotion at Lucasfilm this week I don't think so, even if it means they're divesting Kathleen Kennedy of her power. I don't think he's going to be any better for the Star Wars/Indiana Jones/Willow brands than Kennedy was. But who knows? KK set such an awful low bar there, how could Dave screw it up any more than she already did?

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Thursday, November 23, 2023 1:16 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Sixstring seems to be better than the Weatehrman or the 401K guy on the phone...mostly

It has been interesting to watch 6IXSTRING's predictions and forecasts once cinema movies get their release

I would say the majority of the time he gets it correct and does true predictions at anywhere between 70% to 90% of the time
sometimes his projections are almost exactly right for each week

but he has got stuff wrong also

there are movies that won't follow a normal trend or do their own thing with a unique financial path due to circumstance

6IXSTRING got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong
He is correct to predict most of the Marvel DC failures but there have been exception to the rule such as Spider-Man No Way Home

Five Nights at Freddy's might have been a little difficult to forecast since its budget was hidden until the last moment, it did unusually well being a Horror and opening on the Halloween weekend but then had a strong drop of, however even on its second weekend with a smaller taking of $5,000,000 Friday and Saturday $8,636,000 + and a Sunday taking it was beating it budget during the second week also, the film was very cheap at $20 million
Many predicted Shazam! Fury of the Gods would fail and predicted The Marvels would flop not just 6IXSTRING the word was out it was a bad movie.

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Thursday, November 23, 2023 7:15 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


They now officially admit DC and Marvel are flopping

Dave Rubin on why ‘The Marvels’ flopped at the box office
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/dave-rubin-on-why-the-m
arvels-flopped-at-the-box-office/video/c7c8ba32a8fcf45ce68ea1a39184cea8

‘Ms. Marvel’ star responds to ‘The Marvels’ box office flop
https://www.nme.com/news/film/ms-marvel-star-responds-to-the-marvels-b
ox-office-flop-3544579

News is Reporting Takings ‘Napoleon’ Makes $3 Million in Previews, ‘Wish’ Follows With $2.3 Million

also report Disney’s ‘Wish’ Grosses $8.3 Million, Apple’s ‘Napoleon’ Earns $7.7 Million

'Napoleon' is a hit with the box office but not with all critics
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/napoleon-hit-box-office-not-165940248.html

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:


$28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.


I'm not sure but the USA numbers for The Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday seem to be worse than Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves 2023, Dungeons and Dragon had a Budget $150 million, there were no big buck extras made in downloads or T-Shiorts or no big DVD sales after the cinema they said Dungeons and Dragons was mostly falling short of its break-even point.

A lot of entertainment people say the Thanksgiving Weekend is a Boost of Sales

the field is crowded, its back to the royal rumble days on a crowded arena, the Nun thing, Wish, Five Nights at Freddy's movie, Killers of the Flower Moon, the Taylor Swift thing are still making money...it might not be a lot of money but maybe it will be enough to eat the Napoleon profits? not sure about overseas, Russia has sanctions, South Korea is a big market, others China, Germany, India is also big but their domestic industry is strong and it is hard for Hollywood to make money competing against Bollywood etc maybe the British and French markets are very important, Australia cinema – maybe 1 Billion to zero point 8 or $ 0. 85 Billion but it has not been the same since the Covid Lockdown and the Hollywood SJW casting

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Friday, November 24, 2023 2:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Sixstring seems to be better than the Weatehrman or the 401K guy on the phone...mostly


I'm probably better than any 401K manager is in the tough times like these days. I'm definitely better than any weatherman that I've ever seen... But I live around Chicago where you can have all 4 seasons in 1 day, so take that for what it's worth.



Quote:
It has been interesting to watch 6IXSTRING's predictions and forecasts once cinema movies get their release

I would say the majority of the time he gets it correct and does true predictions at anywhere between 70% to 90% of the time
sometimes his projections are almost exactly right for each week


Thank you. That's actually some pretty kind words there buddy.

Quote:
but he has got stuff wrong also

there are movies that won't follow a normal trend or do their own thing with a unique financial path due to circumstance

6IXSTRING got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong
He is correct to predict most of the Marvel DC failures but there have been exception to the rule such as Spider-Man No Way Home


Yeah... I don't know how much anybody, including you, read my ramblings in this forum since I took an interest in it. But I do take credit for my mistakes and wrong predictions, usually as soon as I realize that I made them.

You can see me doing a LOT of that right now in the Hunger Games Prequel Failure Thread all the way back since October 30th when I found out that the budget for that movie was only $100 Million. To be fair though, all the way back on September 27th I posited correctly that nobody in their right mind at Lionsgate would have dumped $200 Million into S&S the same year that they spent only $100 Million on both John Wick 4 and the Expendables 4, so I wasn't very surprised when the $100 Million budget was announced. So between the reasonable budget and now that it's performing so well because it was sandwiched between two Disney flops that I called which are both flopping harder than I ever would have imagined it's looking more every day like my prediction that S&S will be a flop was incorrect.

This is an especially strange scenario playing out right now, and sometimes there are just too many external variables to account for. I did think that what is happening now would be a possibility all the way back on November 12th though when Whozit correctly guessed that The Marvels would tank over -60% on its 2nd weekend. I even went so far as to say that I saw people online claiming it was going to fall -75% and this flat out wasn't going to happen, only to get that one wrong too when it fell -78%. But I REALLY didn't want it to fail that hard because I knew that if it did too poorly that Songbirds and Snakes would benefit from it, and that's exactly what happened. Then the very same thing appears to be happening again this weekend with Disney's Wish failing too hard and S&S taking 1st place above Wish 3 days in a row.

What do you do when there are 3 movies in theaters simultaniously that you're rooting to fail?



I still don't think I got Barbie and Oppenheimer "wrong"... at least not as bad as the above examples, anyhow. I gave the whole Barbieheimer a roasting in their own thread and gave them a degrading thread title with my early personal opinions on both movies, but I never gave either of them their own failure threads like I have specifically done for a half-dozen or so other movies. Yeah... I'm shocked at how much both of them did. Seriously shocked. But I don't believe I ever claimed that either one of them would be failures.

Maybe it's the fact that I haven't sat through TV advertisements for about 2 decades and I'd quit watching YouTube altogether if they ever figure out a way to actually block the ad blocker software, but the mystery in my head about the whole Barbieheimer thing was that I just didn't get it. It was an insanely effective marketing campaign for both movies which combined brought in over $2.4 BILLION worldwide, but it never made any sense to me. Why anybody who wasn't a 40 year old cat lady would want to see Barbie still mystifies me, and I'm sure that the makers of both Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon are scratching their heads right now along with me after the success of Oppenheimer.


But for sure I can't take credit for Spider-Man: No Way Home. That was way before my time doing this whole movie tracking and prediction thing on here. Back then I was just basically shitting on the comic book movie genre in general since I've never really been a fan of it outside of a few really standout movies. No Way Home was included in that group, IMO. I believe that it's the last movie I've seen in the theater, actually. My dad was raving about it after seeing it with my brother so when it was still showing there the next time I came down with them he took both of us to see it and (call me an idiot that fell for nostalgia-bait of you will but) I loved it. It deserved every dime it made and it's easily in the top 3 Super Hero movies of all time. I'll stake my reputation on that fully admitting that I haven't even seen 80% or more of the genre's offerings in the last 20 years too. It was a once in a generation gimmick that nobody is going to be able to imitate, and when they stuck the landing and didn't give it a Hollywood Ending by using some magical McGuffin to fix everything I was completely sold on it.

Quote:
Five Nights at Freddy's might have been a little difficult to forecast since its budget was hidden until the last moment, it did unusually well being a Horror and opening on the Halloween weekend but then had a strong drop of, however even on its second weekend with a smaller taking of $5,000,000 Friday and Saturday $8,636,000 + and a Sunday taking it was beating it budget during the second week also, the film was very cheap at $20 million
Many predicted Shazam! Fury of the Gods would fail and predicted The Marvels would flop not just 6IXSTRING the word was out it was a bad movie.


It seems like I've been doing this movie thing forever now, but even Shazam II likely pre-dates my in-depth tracking and analysis of Hollywood... Although I've mentioned that movie at least 100 times since as a sort of "benchmark for failure" since. I can't recall, but I may have not even made predictions here that Shazam II was going to fail because I might not have been doing that all the way back then. It's been a LONG year.



And I can't take any credit for successfully predicting anything about FNAF because I know I didn't predict it would be the major success that it has been. I knew it would make money in 2023 with the horror genre doing gangbusters, but with what was thought to be a $25 Million budget I was wondering if it would be even as successful as Scream VI was, just because I didn't know how the mainstream appeal would be for a 10 year old video game franchise, especially when they made the decision to stream it for free on a service that only cost $5.99 per month.

I've written a lot about FNAF because I'm really enjoying seeing it do so well and watching every day that passes make me more confident that it will actually gross more money worldwide than The Marvels, Wish and Songbirds and Snakes will. I've kind of jokingly said even a while back "wouldn't it be great if it did", but I don't think I actually thought FNAF was going to beat any of them except for possibly Songbirds and Snakes.

And here we are now, with Songbirds and Snakes the only movie of the three with even the slimmest chance of ever catching up to it.




Thanks for the post.

I really put a lot of time into all of this, but I don't expect anything in return for it. It's nice to get some feedback.


I think in order for me to do better with my predictions, I need to do a better job at tempering my own biases. I believe that I do a much better job of that than most of the shills being paid to write about movies and review them do, but there's always room for improvement.

I'm working on that. You can see it in the Hunger Games Failure Thread where I'm practically defending the movie right now while at the same time saying how badly I personally want to see it fail.

You can't call a movie a flop unless it's a flop, and I've been calling out the guys who keep arbitrarily bumping up the amounts of money a movie make to break even just for the clickbait and their ad revenue numbers. If Songbirds and Snakes breaks $250 Million worldwide, I'm going to eat crow on that one. But at least I said all the way back in October that it could break even once the $100 Million Production Budget figure was confirmed.



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Friday, November 24, 2023 10:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I wonder if Bruce is using the holiday weekend as an excuse not to make any predictions this week. I don't think I've ever seen this late on a Friday night without weekend predictions.

I don't blame him. 2023 is ending on a pretty strange note. Deserved, but strange.

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Saturday, November 25, 2023 6:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


This is not a profitable way to run a business:

The Strange $55 Million Saga of a Netflix Series You’ll Never See
After suitors flocked to a sci-fi project by Carl Rinsch, director of a single movie, the winner handed over money and control. They’re still fighting.

By John Carreyrou | Nov. 22, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/business/carl-rinsch-netflix-conque
st.html

Near the height of the streaming boom in the fall of 2018, a half-dozen studios and video platforms lined up to woo a little-known filmmaker named Carl Erik Rinsch. He had directed only one movie, “47 Ronin.” It was a commercial and critical dud, and Mr. Rinsch’s tussles with its producers had raised eyebrows, even in an industry where such conflicts are the norm.

(47 Ronin (2013) rated 28 on a scale of 0 to 100 https://www.metacritic.com/movie/47-ronin/
47 Ronin failed financially https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/47-Ronin )

But memories in Hollywood are short, and the demand for new content was intense. In just a decade, the number of scripted TV shows had soared from 200 to more than 500, with new streaming services from Disney, Apple and NBCUniversal on the way. Amid the feeding frenzy, the project that Mr. Rinsch was pitching — a science-fiction series about artificial humans — became a hot property.

(Movie scriptwriters like to claim they are superior to those writing for TV, but there is only one new talent pool for both, at least in the American industry, AKA "Hollywood". Expanding from 200 to 500 TV series hurts the quality of movie scripts because the pool of strong writers doesn't get bigger. Instead, confident & strong talkers but weak writers get their weak movies made. Essentially, con men talk their way into being scriptwriters, but they can't do the job.)

After a competitive auction, Mr. Rinsch and his representatives reached an informal eight-figure agreement with Amazon. But before they had a chance to put it in writing, Netflix swooped in. Cindy Holland, the company’s vice president of original content at the time, called Mr. Rinsch at home on a Sunday and dangled millions of dollars more, as well as something studios rarely gave directors: final cut.

Netflix won the deal — and would soon come to regret it.

The project with Mr. Rinsch has turned into a costly fiasco, a microcosm of the era of profligate spending that Hollywood studios now are scrambling to end. Netflix burned more than $55 million on Mr. Rinsch’s show and gave him near-total budgetary and creative latitude but never received a single finished episode.

Soon after he signed the contract, Mr. Rinsch’s behavior grew erratic, according to members of the show’s cast and crew, texts and emails reviewed by The New York Times, and court filings in a divorce case brought by his wife. He claimed to have discovered Covid-19’s secret transmission mechanism and to be able to predict lightning strikes. He gambled a large chunk of the money from Netflix on the stock market and cryptocurrencies. He spent millions of dollars on a fleet of Rolls-Royces, furniture and designer clothing.

Mr. Rinsch and Netflix are now locked in a confidential arbitration proceeding initiated by Mr. Rinsch, who claims the company breached their contract and owes him at least $14 million in damages. Netflix has denied owing Mr. Rinsch anything and has called his demands a shakedown.

It’s not uncommon for Hollywood productions to run into trouble, but a debacle of this magnitude is rare. And it has surfaced at an inopportune moment, with Hollywood under pressure from investors to cut back on lavish spending and to focus on making profits rather than adding streaming subscribers at any cost. That squeeze is only expected to intensify. Hollywood studios’ recent agreements to pay writers and actors more are likely to further pinch profits.

Mr. Rinsch declined to respond to a detailed list of questions. In a recent Instagram post, he said he did not cooperate with The Times because he expected the article to be “inaccurate.” He predicted that it would “discuss the fact that I somehow lost my mind … (Spoiler alert) … I did not.”

Thomas Cherian, a spokesman for Netflix, said the company had provided substantial funding and other support to Mr. Rinsch’s series, but “after a lot of time and effort, it became clear that Mr. Rinsch was never going to complete the project he agreed to make, and so we wrote the project off.”

‘The Organic Intelligent’

By all accounts, Mr. Rinsch, 46, is a talented filmmaker. The youngest son of an insurance executive, he grew up in California’s San Fernando Valley and started renting camera equipment and shooting short films in his early teens. After attending Brown University, he returned to Los Angeles and joined Ridley Scott’s production company, making commercials and apprenticing under the acclaimed director.

Friends say Mr. Rinsch always had a quirky side. He had a habit of telling tall tales about his childhood, claiming that he grew up in Africa and that his father was a spy. While living at the Huntley Hotel in Santa Monica for a stretch, he insisted that the staff cover every inch of his room in white sheets.

Mr. Rinsch’s career began to take off in 2010 when a short film he made for the Dutch electronics maker Philips won top awards at the Cannes Lions international advertising festival.

There was talk that Mr. Rinsch would direct a prequel to “Alien,” Mr. Scott’s 1979 sci-fi classic, for his feature film debut. Instead, Universal Studios hired him to direct “47 Ronin,” a big-budget action movie starring Keanu Reeves.

The project encountered difficulties. Mr. Rinsch clashed with Scott Stuber, one of the producers, and at one point was removed from the editing room, according to a person familiar with what happened. When the film was released on Christmas Day in 2013, it bombed. Universal had to write off a large portion of its $175 million budget.

Mr. Rinsch went back to making commercials. On the side, he and his wife — a Uruguayan model and fashion designer, Gabriela Rosés Bentancor — began working on a passion project: a sci-fi TV series about a genius who invents a humanlike species called the Organic Intelligent. The O.I. are deployed to trouble spots around the globe to provide humanitarian aid, but humans eventually discover their true nature and turn against them. Mr. Rinsch called the show “White Horse,” a reference to the first horseman of the apocalypse.

At first, Mr. Rinsch financed the production with his own money and hired mostly European actors and crew members, which reduced costs and avoided Hollywood union rules. The early shoots followed punishing schedules. During a shoot in Kenya, Mr. Rinsch insisted on filming for 24 hours straight, two members of the production said. In Romania, the lead actress caught hypothermia doing a scene barelegged in the snow and had to be rushed to a hospital, they said.

To keep the project going, Mr. Rinsch secured an investment from 30West, a production company backed by the billionaire entrepreneur Dan Friedkin. But when Mr. Rinsch missed a deadline, 30West threatened to take possession of the project. Mr. Reeves, the Hollywood star, who had become friends with Mr. Rinsch during the shooting of “Ronin,” came to his rescue by investing in the show and becoming a producer alongside Ms. Rosés.

With the money Mr. Reeves contributed, Mr. Rinsch finished editing six short episodes ranging from four to 10 minutes. He used them to pitch the big streaming companies on a 13-episode, 120-minute first season. At the time, streaming services were in an expensive arms race for content to attract new subscribers. Netflix, in particular, was lavishing money and creative control on top creators like Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy. Hollywood was also open to new show formats. Quibi, a short-form video platform conceived by Jeffrey Katzenberg, the former DreamWorks Animation chief, had just been founded to much fanfare.

Mr. Rinsch’s pitch attracted interest from Amazon, HBO, Hulu, Netflix, Apple and YouTube. Amazon — which had shown its willingness to spend big by paying nearly $250 million for the rights to make a television show based on J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Lord of the Rings” — looked set to win the bidding. But Netflix snatched the project away at the last minute, convinced it had the potential to become a sci-fi franchise as successful as “Stranger Things” that could spawn sequels and spinoffs.

The company agreed to pay $61.2 million in several installments for the rights to the series, which it renamed “Conquest,” according to a November 2018 term sheet reviewed by The Times. The deal included two unusual clauses: Netflix gave Mr. Rinsch final cut, a privilege it had previously bestowed on only a few directors. And it assured Mr. Rinsch and Ms. Rosés that they would remain “locked for life” to all subsequent seasons and spinoffs.

In granting Mr. Rinsch such generous terms, Netflix ignored several red flags. One was the project’s troubled past. At the time, Mr. Rinsch was still fighting with 30West and other early investors. (They received $14 million of the $61 million from Netflix under a legal settlement.) Another was the fact that the series didn’t have a complete script.

Netflix also overlooked Mr. Rinsch’s checkered reputation in Hollywood. Mr. Stuber, the producer who had clashed with him on “Ronin,” had joined Netflix’s movie division a year earlier. Ms. Holland, the company’s head of original content, didn’t consult him before buying “Conquest.”

Punching Holes in a Wall

With Netflix’s big-money commitment, Mr. Rinsch now had to deliver. Shooting of the remaining episodes of “Conquest” got underway in São Paulo, Brazil, and then in Montevideo, Uruguay, and in Budapest.

In São Paulo, the local film industry union dispatched a representative to the set after receiving a complaint that Mr. Rinsch was “mistreating the team” with “shouts,” “cursing” and “excessive irritation,” according to a letter the union sent Netflix’s local production partner. Netflix was informed of the issue and addressed it with Mr. Rinsch, a person familiar with the matter said.

In Budapest, Mr. Rinsch went days without sleep and accused his wife of plotting to have him assassinated, two people who witnessed the outburst said.

Ms. Rosés later said in a court filing in her divorce case that Mr. Rinsch’s behavior had started to change even before the overseas shoots. On several occasions, he had thrown things at her and twice punched holes in a wall.

Mr. Rinsch has said he was diagnosed with autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and took medications for both. Ms. Rosés and some crew members worried about his use of Vyvanse, an amphetamine that is commonly prescribed to treat A.D.H.D. When overused, the drug can have serious side effects, including mania, delirium and even psychosis, according to psychiatrists.

After filming wrapped up in Budapest in late 2019, Ms. Rosés hired a behavioral health consultant to try to persuade Mr. Rinsch to enter rehab. Accompanied by Mr. Reeves, one of Mr. Rinsch’s brothers and several members of the “Conquest” crew, the consultant staged an intervention at Mr. Rinsch’s Los Angeles home, several people who attended said. Mr. Rinsch agreed to let a sober companion stay with him, but he sent him packing within a couple of days, the people said.

In March 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic was reaching U.S. shores, Mr. Rinsch asked Netflix to send him more money. The company had already spent $44.3 million on “Conquest.” Mr. Rinsch had missed several production milestones and was toggling between two versions of the script, a shorter one that matched the original 13-episode plan and one twice as long that would have required greenlighting a second season.

Netflix initially resisted Mr. Rinsch’s demand for more funds, but it relented when he claimed the whole production risked collapsing without an immediate cash injection.

Netflix wired Mr. Rinsch’s production company $11 million, bringing its total outlay to more than $55 million. It gave Mr. Rinsch permission to use some of the new money to do preproduction work on the longer version of the script. The caveat was that if Netflix didn’t sign off on the expanded script after five weeks, Mr. Rinsch had to use the rest of the money to finish and deliver the originally agreed-upon first season.

Mr. Rinsch transferred $10.5 million of the $11 million to his personal brokerage account at Charles Schwab and, using options, placed risky bets on the stock market, according to copies of his bank and brokerage statements included in the divorce case. One of his wagers was that shares of the biotech firm Gilead Sciences, which had announced that it was testing an antiviral drug on Covid patients, would soar. Another was that the S&P 500 index, which had already declined more than 30 percent, would fall further. Mr. Rinsch lost $5.9 million in a matter of weeks.

In the following months, he behaved more erratically. Like many people, he was deeply affected by the pandemic, and he espoused strange theories about the coronavirus, according to text messages and emails reviewed by The Times. When Ms. Rosés went to check on him in June 2020, he took her to a scenic lookout in the Hollywood hills and pointed at planes overhead. They were “organic, intelligent forces” that “came to say hi,” he told her, according to Ms. Rosés’s filing in the divorce case. He also sent her texts claiming that he could predict lightning strikes and volcanic eruptions.

At Netflix, Ms. Holland, too, was witnessing some of Mr. Rinsch’s behavior. He was sending her text messages, which The Times reviewed, containing bizarre doodles with incomprehensible annotations.

Yet Ms. Holland didn’t realize the extent of the problem until Ms. Rosés reached out in July 2020. She informed Ms. Holland and another Netflix executive, Peter Friedlander, about Mr. Rinsch’s state. Two days later, she filed for divorce.

In September 2020, Netflix shook up its management team. Ms. Holland and another executive involved with Mr. Rinsch’s contract would leave the company.

A few months later, Mr. Friedlander and a Netflix business affairs executive, Rochelle Gerson, called Ms. Rosés. They wanted to know whether she could get access to the show’s footage so they could figure out what still needed to be done to complete the first season. When Ms. Rosés told them that she didn’t feel comfortable doing so without Mr. Rinsch’s approval, Ms. Gerson worried that Mr. Rinsch might have an “explosive response” if Ms. Rosés broached the matter with him.

Ms. Gerson soon began receiving emails from Mr. Rinsch in which he claimed, among other things, to have found a way to map “the coronavirus signal emanating from within the earth.”

Netflix executives grew so concerned with Mr. Rinsch’s behavior that they consulted with the Los Angeles Police Department’s threat management unit, a person with knowledge of the matter said. A Police Department psychologist reviewed Mr. Rinsch’s texts and emails and concluded that he didn’t seem like a threat to himself or others.

Five Rolls-Royces and a Ferrari

In emails to Netflix, Mr. Rinsch accused the company of breaching his contract and addressed the subject of his mental health: “To state it simply, I am of sound mind and body.”

Netflix no longer saw a way forward with the production. On March 18, 2021, Ms. Gerson informed Mr. Rinsch by email that Netflix had decided to stop funding “Conquest.” She told him that he was free to shop it elsewhere but that any acquirer would have to reimburse Netflix for what it had spent.

Mr. Rinsch sent angry emails to Ms. Gerson and a Netflix lawyer, accusing them of breaching his contract. In one email, he addressed the subject of his mental health. “To state it simply, I am of sound mind and body,” he wrote.

Mr. Rinsch had begun using what remained of the $11 million that Netflix had wired his production company to place bets on crypto. He transferred more than $4 million from his Schwab account to an account on the Kraken exchange and bought Dogecoin, a dog-themed cryptocurrency, according to an account statement reviewed by The Times. Unlike his stock market investments, this one paid off: When he liquidated his Dogecoin positions in May 2021, he had a balance of nearly $27 million.

“Thank you and god bless crypto,” an elated Mr. Rinsch wrote in an online chat with a Kraken representative.

Mr. Rinsch then went on a spending spree. He bought five Rolls-Royces, a Ferrari, a $387,630 Vacheron Constantin watch and millions of dollars’ worth of high-end furniture and designer clothing. The tab came to $8.7 million, according to a forensic accountant hired by Ms. Rosés.

By then, Mr. Rinsch’s divorce from Ms. Rosés had turned acrimonious. Her legal team suspected that the purchases were designed to hide Mr. Rinsch’s crypto winnings.

Mr. Rinsch responded in a deposition that the cars and furniture were props for “Conquest” and that he had paid for them with Netflix’s production money. But in his arbitration case with Netflix, he took a different position: In confidential filings reviewed by The Times, he argued that the money was contractually his and that Netflix owed him several more payments totaling more than $14 million.

Netflix disagrees. In a motion it filed in July, the company said the payments were contingent on Mr. Rinsch’s hitting various production milestones, which it contends he never did. The case went to a hearing before an arbitrator this month. A ruling is expected soon.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, November 25, 2023 10:24 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


That dude probably belongs in prison now. Nowhere near as long as SBF will be if his appeal doesn't help him, but a few years in a white collar cell would do him good. His ex-wife shouldn't get a dime until Netflix liquidates everything they had and gets their money back first.

That's probably the most interesting story I've read of these streaming services wasting tens of millions of dollars on unproven talent for shows that may or may not even be created in the future.



Check this one out... And it's reported by Left/Center The Guardian, so given who the article is about there shouldn't be any questions about whether or not it's true.



The Guardian: The biggest new moneymaking scheme for Hollywood stars? Doing nothing

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/apr/14/phoebe-waller-bri
dge-amazon-deal-fleabag

Quote:
How hard do you have to work to earn $60m in just three years? The answer, for Phoebe Waller-Bridge, at least, is not very hard at all. In 2019 the Emmy-winning creator of the hit TV show Fleabag signed a $20m-a-year deal with Amazon Studios. Originally, she was supposed to collaborate with Donald Glover on a series based on the 2005 movie Mr and Mrs Smith, but she reportedly left the show after a few months because of clashing creative styles. No worries, Amazon said, you can work on a Tomb Raider series instead. However, the Hollywood Reporter notes, since a showrunner (the person who has overall creative authority over a show) was also being hired, it’s questionable just how much work would actually be needed by the Fleabag creator. In short: Waller-Bridge has collected $60m from Amazon over the last few years without ever making a new show.


That's $5 Million more than the Mad Lad got, and she hasn't done anything for it.

Quote:
There certainly seems to be a lot of that going on lately. Waller-Bridge is far from the only creative to be being paid big bucks for doing very little. In 2020, Harry and Meghan signed a multi-year Netflix deal, worth a reported $100m. “Our focus will be on creating content that informs but also gives hope,” the couple said at the time. No doubt Netflix is hoping that, once they’re done mining their personal lives for views, they’ll come up with some decent original content. So far it’s not clear that will be the case. Their most recent output was a seven-episode series called Live to Lead – dry profiles on Greta Thunberg, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Gloria Steinem – which was released on Netflix on 31 December with little fanfare and almost no reviews. Netflix has also cancelled Meghan’s animated series called Pearl, amid cutbacks.


That's $45 Million more than the Mad Lad got and all Netflix has gotten from them is a 7 episode series that nobody even bothered to watch.


There are a LOT of stories like this. More in this article, but all over the internet as well. Amazon and Netflix in particular have pissed away more money than we'll ever know.



They needed the writer's/actor's strike to happen. So far, because of the strikes, they've shut down 300 shows that were previously greenlit, which was a good deal more than half of the shows that were collectively on the streaming slate. With this economy and all the venture capital dried up because of the high interest rates, they're slamming the brakes hard on the spending and are presumably going to put a lot more thought into what they actually do spend their money on.

The people who actually still manage to get a job are going to make a better wage for the work, but about half of Hollywood is going to be perpetually unemployed in that industry and are going to need to find a way to pivot their degrees and experience into another line of work or they'll end up working in the service industry for minimum wage.

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Tuesday, November 28, 2023 12:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Oh shit...

The game has changed completely here, regarding FNAF!


My rule from the start is that I always use Bruce's Production Budget number for a movie when he has made it available before going to alternative sources such as BoxOfficeMojo or Deadline/Variety.

Bruce didn't have the PB for FNAF before, but I just noticed today that he must have added that info in and the budget according to him is only $20 Million, and not $25 Million.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=su
mmary


Forget everything I said before about whether or not it beats The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place because it already has.

FNAF now has a 1,450% for WW Gross vs. Production Budget.




Not only is it in 4th place, but by the end of this weekend it's easily going to take 3rd place from M3GAN (which is at 1,508%).



We're now looking at a possibility that FNAF even displaces Sound of Freedom for 2nd place. It would need a WW Gross of $342 Million to break even with SoF, and $343 Million to beat it (Assuming SoF doesn't make another $1 Million Internationally). I don't think this is a real possibility, but this movie has been nothing if not full of surprises up until this point.

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Well it's still $7 Million shy of taking 3rd place from M3GAN.

But FNAF is the movie that Bruce has been updating the international numbers twice per week in the past for whatever reason, which has only added to my chronic underestimation for this film's performance on top of all the other oddities about it like the fact it was available to stream for free on Day 1 if you had a $5.99/mo Peacock subscription.


FNAF is at 1,480% of the Production Budget right now, so it made exactly half of what it needed to pass M3GAN. If there is a 2nd international update this week like there has been in the past and it's the same amount as the Sunday update, it will be in 3rd place behind only Talk To Me and Sound of Freedom, with just about a 0% chance that there will be anything else coming out this year making it anywhere close tot the top 5 of 2023.

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Wednesday, November 29, 2023 10:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


FNAF just got up to $299 Million. Not sure if that's it for internationals or not for the week.

That gets it up to 1,495%. It will beat M3GAN over the weekend either way.

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Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Check your Woke Bruce... it's dangling out your fly for everyone to see again...


Weekend projections: Beyoncé powers to $21-million opening

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255690830-Weekend-projections-Beyonce
-powers-to-21-million-opening



"Powers", huh? Yeah. Let's just forget about the fact that you predicted that it was going to make $49.9 Million over the weekend.




Bruce's predictions for the Top 10 movies this weekend was a grand total of $150,860,000.

What was reality this weekend?

$84,797,331.

So... How does Bruce sugar-coat what is probably his worst weekend predictions since he started The-Numbers?

Quote:
The bottom line is that a diverse slate of films are performing well this weekend, and making up for some notable underperformances from major studio films in recent weeks. If that’s broadening the audience of moviegoers beyond its regular demographics, that’s surely good news going into the end of the year.


You celebrate that all you'd like dude.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are getting a real kick out of watching Hollywood diversifying itself right into the poorhouse.




And also, nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about when you say that they're "making up for some notable underperformances from major studio films" either, when every single one of your predictions were far above what any of the movies actually pulled in this weekend and the combined total fell an embarrassing $66 MILLION short of what you expected.

43.71% off the mark. Even my dipshit weatherman does better than that.

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Monday, December 4, 2023 4:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
FNAF just got up to $299 Million. Not sure if that's it for internationals or not for the week.

That gets it up to 1,495%. It will beat M3GAN over the weekend either way.

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Bruce just stole $8 Million from FNAF over at the-numbers.com. It's now reading only $291,481,935.


Unfortunately, BoxOfficeMojo only has it at $286,595,570 right now, so they're not any help either.


I wonder if Disney put out some threats?

It makes no matter if they did. Neither The Marvels nor Wish will come close to $286 Million, let alone $291 Million.

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Thursday, December 7, 2023 12:13 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I said in the Aquaman 2 thread I didn't think Wonka was going to do all that great.

I'm probably not wrong there...

BoxOfficePro has predicted a $32 to $42 million opening weekend and $175 to $252 Million total Domestic range.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-color-
purple-hopes-to-stand-out-over-christmas-and-new-years/

I may have noted before that I don't like how they guess their total Domestic range compared to their Opening Weekend range since quite a lot of the films they predict have a range far too high for the final total compared to the initial weekend predictions.

Wonka happens to be one of them.

I mean, just look at the predictions in the same article for Aquaman 2. The give A2 the same $32 to $42 Million opening weekend, but the final Domestic total for that film only gets $105 to $168 Million.

If Wonka only gets $42 Million to open, there's no way it's getting $175 Million in the US total, let alone $252 Million. So I don't know what they're talking about.

Word is Wonka cost $125 Million to make, so it needs to get $312.5 Million worldwide to break even.

I'm not saying that it won't make that, I just don't think that it's going to be any sort of blockbuster movie and if I were one of the heads at WB I wouldn't have green lit another Willy Wonka. And if I did, it wouldn't have gotten more than $60 Million for the budget.

Make some new shit people.





Speaking of new shit. There's a new Studio Ghibli movie coming out this weekend called The Boy and the Heron. Supposedly it's Hayao Miyazaki's last movie. Box Office Pro predicts that it will edge out Songbirds and Snakes and Beyonce's concert thing for 1st place this weekend.




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Friday, December 8, 2023 8:38 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Japan not Hollywood

$11,500,000 aprox opening

42 Million Worldwide

Budget $15 million and yet it has huge box office special fx cgi

if we go by the SixString Budget X 2.5 rule it would need to make 37.5 Million to start profit

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31519-godzilla-minus-one-japa
n-11323-north-america-12123-wide-release/page/2/#comments

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Friday, December 8, 2023 9:25 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Japan not Hollywood

$11,500,000 aprox opening

42 Million Worldwide

Budget $15 million and yet it has huge box office special fx cgi

if we go by the SixString Budget X 2.5 rule it would need to make 37.5 Million to start profit

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31519-godzilla-minus-one-japa
n-11323-north-america-12123-wide-release/page/2/#comments


Was my old man correct saying that it wasn't dubbed and it's got subtitles?

If that's true, its performance so far even in the US has been pretty damned impressive.

2nd place on Thursday Previews and Friday Opening last week, only behind Beyonce's thing.

3rd place on Saturday and Sunday behind Songbirds and Snakes and Beyonce's thing.

1st place on Monday above Songbirds & Snakes (Beyonce's thing doesn't play Mon-Wed)

2nd place on Cheap Seat Tuesday behind Songbirds & Snakes. (By just $84k)

1st place again on Wednesday above Songbirds & Snakes.




And Bruce confirms the $15 Million Production Budget on The-Numbers.

This means with $38,721,500 it's already grossed over $1.2 Million profit and everything else it makes is gravy.





Unfortunately, it appears that The Boy and the Heron might have had a HUGE Production Budget. I can't find anyone stating any guesstimates let alone solid figures, but some are calling it the most expensive film ever made in Japan. (Though that's probably not saying much since a movie like Godzilla Minus One can be made in Japan for only $15 Million).

They're saying that it took 7 years to make.

It's definitely on my very, very short list of movies that I intend on watching.

It's already made $73,383,575 Internationally, with $56 Million of that from Japan and $15 Million from South Korea. Supposedly they haven't spent ANY money on marketing this movie, and any business it's gotten was word of mouth.

It will be interesting to see what the Production Budget actually was.

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Saturday, December 9, 2023 9:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


BoxOfficePro predicted $10.2 Million and a first place finish for The Boy and the Heron this weekend.

The-Numbers predicts $14.6 Million and a first place finish for The Boy and the Heron.


I don't know if we're actually ever going to see the actual production budget on this one. It's not the first time a animated feature came out of Japan this year and didn't make my lists because there is no budget data.


Interestingly, there is a possibility that The Boy and the Heron and Godzilla Minus One take 1st and 2nd place for the weekend. I wonder if this would be the first time in history where the top two spots were foreign films.


With the $2.39 Million that TB&TH made on preview night for 1st place, Godzilla took 2nd place barely from Beyonce's concert thing on Thursday night. They probably won't take 1st and 2nd, but I'm rooting for them.

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Saturday, December 9, 2023 1:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The Boy in the Heron gets $3,170,000 on Friday after subtracting the $2,390,000 for Preview Thursday.

This is still enough to take 1st place over Songbirds & Snakes' $2,700,000.

Godzilla Minus One gets $2,250,000 for 3rd place.

Beyonce in 4th place with only $1,600,000 with a huge -86% drop from last Friday.


It will be interesting to see the top list for the weekend. S&S appears to be doing better on weekends comparative to the competition than it does on week days.

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 8:38 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bummer...

Unless projections were off by a little over a million (highly unlikely, given the low box office numbers all around this weekend), it looks as though S&S made enough money to hold Godzilla to 3rd place.

A record was broken this weekend though. The Boy and the Heron was the best US opening by Miyazaki ever. There's a pretty good chance this one not only ends up being the highest grossing Miyazaki film in the US ever, but it will do it with inflation adjustments as well.


All Top 10 films this weekend were from a different studio as well. 6 of them were Indie.



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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 2:48 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Damn... Godzilla Minus One was only $700k behind Songbirds and Snakes.

Oh well... The window for the top 2 films being foreign ones closed just as soon as it opened.

I'm sure Wonka is going to be garbage, but I'd be extremely surprised if it wasn't 1st place by a pretty wide margin this weekend.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 6:38 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


An Older Example of a Hollywood Failure.

The Last Emperor (1987) sold $44,005,435 in tickets but cost $25,000,000 to make. It lost money.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Last-Emperor-The-(1987)#tab=summary

But The Last Emperor won 9 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Emperor#Accolades

Critics highly praised The Last Emperor.
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-last-emperor/

And the Pirates recently appreciated the old movie. It was restored in 4K in 2023 to its original 2.35:1 aspect ratio rather than cinematographer Vittorio Storaro’s preference for a cropped 2:1 version.

https://search.rlsbb.ru/?s=The+Last+Emperor

https://pirate-proxy.top/search.php?q=the+last+emperor

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 10:07 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
An Older Example of a Hollywood Failure.

The Last Emperor (1987) sold $44,005,435 in tickets but cost $25,000,000 to make. It lost money.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Last-Emperor-The-(1987)#tab=summary

But The Last Emperor won 9 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Emperor#Accolades

Critics highly praised The Last Emperor.
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-last-emperor/


Most Oscar Winning pictures aren't made for people who pay to see movies, and if they cost a lot of money to make they lose money.

With inflation included, The Last Emperor cost $67,572,843 to make in 2023, which isn't even a huge budget compared to today's Oscar-bait movies like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon which both cost $200 Million to make.

At $44 Million in Box Office receipts, it grossed $118,928,204, or roughly 176% of the production budget. Under today's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it would have been a huge loser, but since the RoT was only 2 times before Bidenflation kicked in it's reasonable to assume* that all the way back in 1987 it was even less than that and this one at least was close to breaking even, specifically because of its low production budget.

_________________________________

*NOTE: This assumption appears to be backed up by using the Super Bowl cost for a 30 second Ad Spot by year:

https://www.superbowl-ads.com/cost-of-super-bowl-advertising-breakdown
-by-year/

In 1987, a 30 second Super Bowl ad spot cost $645,000. In 2022, it cost $7,000,000.

That's a 1,085% increase in cost over 35 years, which far outpaces inflation. If the cost of advertising remained constant with inflation, the cost of $645,000 for a 30 second ad spot during the Super Bowl in 1987 would only be $1,661,641 in 2022. In other words, it cost 421% more to advertise last year compared to what it should have had advertising kept pace with inflation.


However, it doesn't appear to be aided much by Theater Takes using this table on US average ticket prices by year:

https://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

The average cost of a ticket in 1987 was $3.91, and the average price for a ticket in 2022 was $10.53, which is very close to matching the pace of inflation since the price in 2022 should be $10.07 per ticket in 2022.

So while the studios would make a little bit more money beyond inflation on their share of ticket prices being slightly higher than inflation would dictate in 2022, it's a pittance to how much less they had to spend on advertising back in 1987 compared to 2022.
_________________________________


Compared to Killers and Napoleon, because of its low production budget by comparison, it was far more successful than they were, even if it did lose the studio money. Killers has only made $154.8 Million (or 77.5% of its production budget, and Napoleon has only made $172 Million (or 86% of its production budget).


Quote:
And the Pirates recently appreciated the old movie. It was restored in 4K in 2023 to its original 2.35:1 aspect ratio rather than cinematographer Vittorio Storaro’s preference for a cropped 2:1 version.


Causation doesn't equate to correlation.

The Studio that owned the rights to The Last Emperor appreciated the old movie by restoring it in 4k in its original aspect ratio.

Pirates uploaded it and made it available online illegally for free because pirates do that with every movie. Even the really shitty ones that nobody could ever argue should be winning any awards.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 11:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Most Oscar Winning pictures aren't made for people who pay to see movies, and if they cost a lot of money to make they lose money.

With inflation included, The Last Emperor cost $67,572,843 to make in 2023, which isn't even a huge budget compared to today's Oscar-bait movies like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon which both cost $200 Million to make.

At $44 Million in Box Office receipts, it grossed $118,928,204, or roughly 176% of the production budget. Under today's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it would have been a huge loser, but since the RoT was only 2 times before Bidenflation kicked in it's reasonable to assume* that all the way back in 1987 it was even less than that and this one at least was close to breaking even, specifically because of its low production budget.
Lawrence of Arabia (1962) won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography/Sound/Music and it made a profit but audiences don't usually care about movies that are real. Oppenheimer is the most recent exception. The Last Emperor, Napoleon, and The Killers of the Flower Moon are all real people, so all three went down the toilet.

Some say that Lawrence fictionalized his story about his time in Arabia and the movie looked like a feverish dream with heat shimmering off the sands, so maybe Lawrence of Arabia is not about a real person but more a fiction/fantasy/horror movie, which explains why it made money. I'm still unsure why Oppenheimer made money because it is talk-talk-talk with very few explosions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_of_Arabia_(film)#Awards_and_hon
ours

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lawrence-of-Arabia#tab=summary

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, December 15, 2023 12:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Most Oscar Winning pictures aren't made for people who pay to see movies, and if they cost a lot of money to make they lose money.

With inflation included, The Last Emperor cost $67,572,843 to make in 2023, which isn't even a huge budget compared to today's Oscar-bait movies like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon which both cost $200 Million to make.

At $44 Million in Box Office receipts, it grossed $118,928,204, or roughly 176% of the production budget. Under today's 2.5x Rule of Thumb it would have been a huge loser, but since the RoT was only 2 times before Bidenflation kicked in it's reasonable to assume* that all the way back in 1987 it was even less than that and this one at least was close to breaking even, specifically because of its low production budget.
Lawrence of Arabia (1962) won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography/Sound/Music and it made a profit but audiences don't usually care about movies that are real. Oppenheimer is the most recent exception. The Last Emperor, Napoleon, and The Killers of the Flower Moon are all real people, so all three went down the toilet.

Some say that Lawrence fictionalized his story about his time in Arabia and the movie looked like a feverish dream with heat shimmering off the sands, so maybe Lawrence of Arabia is not about a real person but more a fiction/fantasy/horror movie, which explains why it made money. I'm still unsure why Oppenheimer made money because it is talk-talk-talk with very few explosions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_of_Arabia_(film)#Awards_and_hon
ours

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lawrence-of-Arabia#tab=summary

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



You won't get any argument out of me for any of that post.

I have no more clue why Oppenheimer was such an unbelievable success than I do why Barbie was such an unbelievable success. The whole Barbieheimer marketing thing was brilliant.

Oppenheimer looked boring and too long, and Barbie was an unabashed feminist flick using a kid's toy as the prop. Not only that... but I think Barbie was probably the most successful flick based off of a kid's toy in history too. I'm not going to bother researching all the kid's toy movies, but it destroyed Transformers, which only made $708 Million worldwide on a larger $151 Million budget (from 2007 and not adjusted for inflation).

We should probably just look at both of those as lightning-in-a-bottle outliers, because even if the execs know why they managed to market both of them to such great success, I doubt very much they'll ever be able to replicate that success.

Like I said a long time ago, if they think they're going to have another $1.5 Billion smash hit when they make a My Little Pony or Polly Pocket movie in a few years, we're going to get a big laugh out of it when they spend $200 Million making it and it doesn't break even.

And both the much-more-expensive-than-Oppenheimer Killers and Napoleon have shown that Oppenheimer is the exception to the rule.



I don't think they've ever made a historically accurate biopic into a real movie before. That includes Oppenheimer, Napoleon and Killers. Far too much artistic liberties are taken in any historical biopics, and the more millions thrown at it the worse that gets. If you want to see anything even remotely close to reality you need to get ready to be bored out of your skull and sit down and watch old NatGeo specials or stuff the History Channel made before they started churning out TV shows about Aliens and Ghosts being real because it turns out that's a lot more lucrative than showing programs about actual history. And even then, history is always written by the winners, so who's to say how much of that is even accurate.

Most people would rather watch 2012's Abraham Lincoln vs. Zombies than a 3 hour true to life biopic on the dude.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 11:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Did we really need another Willy Wonka?

Seriously... Why are people even going to this thing?

It's already made $12 Million in the UK alone before it opened here this weekend, with $43 Million on the books internationally.

And from the looks of it. 1/4 to 1/3rd of the countries its going to be showing in didn't get it until this weekend or later too.



It's going to need $312.5 Million to break even. The weak $3.5 Million on preview night has Bruce's opening weekend prediction at $32 Million.

If that's correct, there's very little chance this movie breaks even, and it will be another movie that Barbie pays for in 2023.



I haven't updated the lists for a while, but I doubt very much between Wonka and Aquaman 2 that Warner Bros. is going to come close to losing money in 2023...

But if WB ends up only banking $500 Million after destroying everybody else with Barbie, that's a pretty sad result for them.

Make new shit, Hollywood.

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Saturday, December 16, 2023 5:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wonka makes $10.9 Million on Opening Night after subtracting $3.5 Million from preview Thursday.

Considering that it's (probably) made for a young, family-friendly audience, it's probably going to end up doing better than Bruce's $31.9 Million prediction. To be fair to Bruce, he did say that "$40 Million doesn't look out of the question.".

I don't think it's making $40 Million.


I believe that its international box office should more than double from its $43 Million opening weekend outside of the US pretty easily. Most films that aren't complete failures generally tend to double their opening weekend within the next 7 days internationally, and with it opening in Australia, France, Italy Poland, New Zealand and other countries on top of that, I think an additional $50 to $55 Million is probably in the cards for the international numbers once they're reconciled.


Wonka will probably end up somewhere between $130 and $140 Million after this weekend with the new international numbers.

Not too shabby on a $125 Million budget on paper, but it had a $43 Million head start in quite a few countries, so it didn't actually gross more than its production budget opening weekend in reality... which is almost a prerequisite these days for ultimately breaking even.

No. I don't think Wonka is going to break even and hit $312.5 Million worldwide.

But it won't miss the mark by all that much. It could have been much worse for Warner Bros.


It's got a few extra chances though... It is coming out right before Christmas, so that's a full two weeks where kids are going to be off of school. And if Aquaman 2 does as bad as I think everybody pretty much expects it to, that might help Wonka leg out an actual minor win in the end.


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Sunday, December 17, 2023 4:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't think it's making $40 Million.


Looks like $39 Million from projections. But I'm sure they lowballed it so maybe it did hit $40 Million.

Quote:
I believe that its international box office should more than double from its $43 Million opening weekend outside of the US pretty easily. Most films that aren't complete failures generally tend to double their opening weekend within the next 7 days internationally, and with it opening in Australia, France, Italy Poland, New Zealand and other countries on top of that, I think an additional $50 to $55 Million is probably in the cards for the international numbers once they're reconciled.


Wonka will probably end up somewhere between $130 and $140 Million after this weekend with the new international numbers.


$151 Million, actually. $112 Million overseas already, so wow... It pulled in an additional $69 Million internationally from last week. Apparently I underestimated how well it was going to do overseas.

Still nothing I'd ever watch, but with close to half of what it needs to break even with only 2 weekends internationally and 1 weekend here, it will probably eek out a modest profit.

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Monday, December 18, 2023 12:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce disagrees with me on Wonka. I guess that musicals actually have strong legs? Really?

He's saying it could make $200 Million in the US alone based off of a $39 Million opening weekend.

I figured the fact that Christmas break is here, Aquaman 2 is going to be a massive bomb, Wonka's international numbers are pretty decent, on top of the fact nothing else is coming out to hurt its chances all looked good for Wonka made me state that it probably eeks out a win, but $200 Million+ in the US???

I dunno man. Maybe I'll eat another dish of crow here and Wonka will end up being a great success.

Personally, I can't stand musicals. The only one I could actually watch again was Little Shop of Horrors from the 80's, but I'd like to think that movie was special even though I have to admit it is a huge source of nostalgia for how many times my brothers and I watched it after I'd taped it off of cable TV when we were little.

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Sunday, December 24, 2023 2:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


To add insult to injury this weekend for Warner Bros. after the embarrassment of Aquaman II grossing $2 Million less than Shazam II did in the US on opening weekend, Wonka wasn't the reason for the poor showing. With some media sites claiming such high expectations for Wonka's second weekend that it might have made more than A2 and taken 1st place two weekends in a row, it appears that Wonka fell -55% and only grossed $17.7 Million stateside on Weekend 2.

That's actually a respectable 2nd weekend showing for Wonka, if it weren't for the unattainably high expectations the media set for it.

With $246.5 Million in the bank already and international numbers still to come in for the weekend, Wonka is in very little danger of not breaking even. It only needs to gross $312.5 Million worldwide to make it there, and it did very well during the first week, grossing no less than $4.2 Million per day, and we're in the middle of Christmas break so the drop shouldn't be more than 55% next week.


Wonka WILL make money. But unfortunately for Warner Bros., it's not going to make anywhere near the kind of money it would need to offset the upcoming losses it's going to have to eat for Aquaman 2, it's fourth and final Comic Book failure of 2023.

Barbie is going to cover that one too, and that's going to leave Warner Bros. with very little to celebrate in 2023 after putting out the highest grossing movie of the year by far.



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Monday, December 25, 2023 4:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm not going to update the tables until after the new year, but I did update all the figures and all the new movies in my spreadsheet. Quite a lot has changed since October 31st and the places that the studios have are a lot different than they were just a few months ago.

Universal and Disney probably had the biggest changes with both of them losing quite a bit since October 31st. Disney won't make that back, but Universal should probably easily get back over $1.5 Billion in profit by the time their newest movies run their course.

It will be a while until the lists are finalized. I'm still seeing the final worldwide totals for movies 6 and 7 months old changing. For example, Super Mario Bros has added about $2 Million since the October 31st update.


Poor Lionsgate though... Even with the recent win on Songbirds & Snakes, they're still about $100 Million in the hole for 2023. They had a couple of flops this year, but Expendables 4 really killed them in the end.

Warner Bros. was just obliterated by their DC brand this year. Even though Barbie grossed nearly $1.5 Billion worldwide, their profit for 2023 is now only $365 Million.

And if you take the 4 or 5 studios that actually made a profit in 2023 outside of Universal and added all their profits up, it's just barely 1/2 of Universal's profits. And a large percentage of that non-Universal profit is Angel Studios' for Sound of Freedom.

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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 11:13 AM

WHOZIT


https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024

This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.

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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 12:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024

This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.


Any bets on which will be the big ones?

That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).

We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.



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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 1:39 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024

This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.


Any bets on which will be the big ones?

That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).

We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.



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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


Joker 2, Ghostbusters 4 and Deadpool 3 will likely do well, they have built in fan bases, there may be some surprises. The Fall Guy looks like fun, it may do well. BUT, 2024 is an election year, I'm sure somebody will shoot their mouth off chase off some audience members.

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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 2:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2024

This is what 2024 is looking like, there are few that may be worth a look.


Any bets on which will be the big ones?

That could be fun. Archiving that list before the new year starts and everybody give their top 10 picks for either worldwide gross or ww gross vs production budget (profitability).

We couldn't predict when new movies would break up that schedule or when movies were pushed off until 2025 or later, but with the archive backup we'd know which movies weren't on the list when we all made our guesses.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.


Joker 2, Ghostbusters 4 and Deadpool 3 will likely do well, they have built in fan bases, there may be some surprises.


My guess is that out of the 3 of them, Ghostbusters 4 is going to be a failure.

Afterlife only made $203.6 Million on a $75 Million budget. It needed $187.5 Million to break even. Almost not even worth making another sequel, really, since it only made 108.6% of the breakeven point.

Comparatively, Songbirds & Snakes has made $303.3 Million on a $100 Million budget so far, which is 121.3% of what it needed to break even, and it will probably end its worldwide run somewhere between 130 and 135% of what it needed. So not only was Songbirds & Snakes a success in the end, but it was more successful than Ghostbusters 3 was.

There's been too much damage done to that brand. Not just the 2016 mistake, but the fact they left it dormant for decades. I was one of the biggest Ghostbusters fans in the world when I was a kid after I watched it with my old man and I remember watching every episode of the cartoon with him and my brothers growing up, but I haven't bothered watching Afterlife yet. It may have been a step in the right direction after the 2016 bomb, but to me it comes off just as cynical. Ghostbusters was never supposed to be FOR KIDS. It was something we felt like we were getting away with watching that we shouldn't have been watching. Even the first season of the cartoon was pretty adult themed most of the time before the Studio Execs got involved and made it a dumb kids cartoon.

So I guess there's my first meaningful prediction for 2024. Unless Sony managed to lower the production budget for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire to only $60 Million or less, my guess is that it doesn't break even. At least not on its own. They could probably try to really get kids excited about the toys again, and maybe put out a new cartoon to keep them coming back for more. There probably is a big potential for merchandising the brand again after all these years if they do it right. There is a huge void left in that area by Star Wars and Marvel toys not selling. I just wonder if kids really care about playing with action figures anymore when so much entertainment is available digitally these days.


Quote:
The Fall Guy looks like fun, it may do well. BUT, 2024 is an election year, I'm sure somebody will shoot their mouth off chase off some audience members.


Yeah... I'm sure we're in for a lot more preaching in 2024.

Keep voting with that wallet.

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