CINEMA

Disney's Wish Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Monday, December 11, 2023 15:32
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VIEWED: 606
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Thursday, November 2, 2023 3:15 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


*NOTE: Thread title has changed, dropping the "(Assuming the $200 Million Production Budget is True)" now that it has been verified by The-Numbers.com.


The thread title says it all. If the rumors are true and Wish cost Disney $200 Million to make, it will fail.

It will need $500 Million Worldwide to break even, and Deadline is predicting only a $50 Million 5-day Thanksgiving Holiday weekend Domestic gross.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-projection-12355
91106
/

Even if this somehow got $100 Million internationally against the $50 Million Domestic, it would still never reach $500 Million by the end of its run. It will also be in direct competition with Disney's other late-year flop The Marvels, which will have come out 12 days prior.



So if that $200 Million budget figure is true, they'd better do a lot better than $50 Million Domestic on a 5-Day Thanksgiving weekend.

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Thursday, November 2, 2023 4:02 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The thread title says it all. If the rumors are true and Wish cost Disney $200 Million to make, it will fail.

It will need $500 Million Worldwide to break even, and Deadline is predicting only a $50 Million 5-day Thanksgiving Holiday weekend Domestic gross.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-projection-12355
91106
/

Even if this somehow got $100 Million internationally against the $50 Million Domestic, it would still never reach $500 Million by the end of its run. It will also be in direct competition with Disney's other late-year flop The Marvels, which will have come out 12 days prior.



So if that $200 Million budget figure is true, they'd better do a lot better than $50 Million Domestic on a 5-Day Thanksgiving weekend.



I think more people are boycotting Disney then we and the media know

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Saturday, November 18, 2023 7:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears that the $200 Million budget was true and this is going to be another Disney failure for 2023.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wish-(2023)#tab=summary


So far there are 54 reviews at Rotten Tomatoes and it's got a 59%.

Among the 14 Top critics, it's a measly 43%.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wish_2023

These are basically mirroring the early reviews for The Marvels.


There ain't no chance this thing is hitting $500 Million to break even.

Disney should just take 2024 off. They'd lose a hell of a lot less money doing nothing than putting out any more of this insanely expensive crap that nobody wants to see.

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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 2:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Box Office Pro's predictions for the 3-Day and 5-Day Holiday Weekend:

3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$44M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $49M-$66M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/5-day-weekend-box-office-forecast-napoleo
n-and-wish-aim-to-bring-out-thanksgiving-moviegoers
/

Tuesday Night Previews were only $2.6 Million.

Rotten Tomatoes has an abysmal 47% Total Critics score with 107 reviews.
It's only 28% with 29 Top Critics Reviews.

Verified Audience is 83% with All Audience at only 68%.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wish_2023

Chalk up another Super Flop for Disney here.



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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 2:39 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Box Office Pro's predictions for the 3-Day and 5-Day Holiday Weekend:

3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$44M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $49M-$66M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/5-day-weekend-box-office-forecast-napoleo
n-and-wish-aim-to-bring-out-thanksgiving-moviegoers
/

Tuesday Night Previews were only $2.6 Million.

Rotten Tomatoes has an abysmal 47% Total Critics score with 107 reviews.
It's only 28% with 29 Top Critics Reviews.

Verified Audience is 83% with All Audience at only 68%.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wish_2023

Chalk up another Super Flop for Disney here.



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Add a chick and make her gay

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Wednesday, November 22, 2023 6:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Add a chick and make her gay



... and lame!



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Thursday, November 23, 2023 11:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh... What I didn't mention about Wish's Tuesday previews...

1. First, $2.6 Million was either a typo on my part, or it's been downgraded since yesterday to only $2.3 Million.

2. It came in 4th place on Tuesday, with the Previews for Napoleon making $3 Million in 3,014 theaters.

3. The Marvels made $6.6 Million on Preview Thursday. Songbirds and Snakes made $5.75 Million on Preview Thursday. I do not know if this is a meaningful comparison here because I don't ever recall looking at a movie with a Tuesday night preview before.

4. Now, I don't know how Deadline got this info much sooner than Bruce did, but according to their article, Wish previewed on Tuesday and showed Opening day in 3,900 theaters.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-thanksgiving-123
5634036
/

They also claim its leading the pack with $8.7M Wednesday Opening Night, but that includes the $2.3M from Tuesday's Previews, so only $6.4 Million for the opening.

Songbirds and Snakes made $13,298,744 on Opening Friday after you subtract the Thursday Previews.

The Marvels made $15,003,104 on Opening Friday after you subtract the Thursday previews.



I wouldn't read too deep into those Opening Night numbers though, because of how different Holiday Weekends are. (And I'm not versed enough in tracking any of this to give any legitimate predictions for the weekend without spending a few hours going back at least several years and comparing it to other movies in a similar position, which I don't have time to do today).

Songbirds and Snakes made $6.5 Million on Cheap Seat Tuesday. So without knowing what S&S made on Wednesday yet, that could very well mean that S&S had the great First Wednesday Fall that both The Marvels and Five Nights at Freddy's just recently experienced.

If that isn't what happened and it's very close between the 2 of them, there's a chance that S&S takes first place again this weekend and denies Disney a 1st place showing for their 100th anniversary animated film.

I don't think that's going to be the case, and frankly I don't want that to happen either. I want all three of these flicks to fail, and if S&S beats Wish this weekend it's even more likely that S&S manages to break even and even make a small profit.



I don't know if we're even going to be getting any updates beyond this today because of the holiday, and unless anything comes in soon-ish, I won't be reading or posting about them until tomorrow anyhow.

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Thursday, November 23, 2023 12:45 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


We appear to have gotten preview numbers on all the movies that matter today.

According to Bruce, Wish only made $6 Million on Opening Wednesday ($8.3M - $2.3 Tuesday Previews).



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Saturday, November 25, 2023 11:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Unless Disney is highballing Friday again like they did with The Marvels, they've got to be happy with $8 Million on Friday after only $3.9 Million on Thanksgiving.

It's all projection at this point, but according to Disney, Wish has made $20.2 Million including previews from Tuesday night.


On Thanksgiving, Trolls Band Together only made $2.63 Million to Wish's $3.9 Million. On Friday, percentage-wise, Trolls closed that gap quite a bit with $7.09 Million to Wish's $8 Million.


It's unclear right now if Napoleon increased enough to keep Wish from getting 3rd place on Friday, but Songbirds and Snakes is almost certain to be the clear winner here since it grossed $2 Million more than Wish did on Thanksgiving.


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Saturday, November 25, 2023 11:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yup. Napoleon made enough. $8.35M projected vs. Wish's $8M projected for Friday. Wish gets 3rd place on Opening Friday.



The good money is on Songbirds and Snakes actually banking over $10 Million on Friday now.

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Saturday, November 25, 2023 12:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yup. S&S made $11.4M for first place.

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Sunday, November 26, 2023 12:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Disney's wish takes 3rd place behind both Songbird's and Snakes' 2nd weekend and freakin' Napoleon.

S&S: $28.82M
Napoleon: $20.4M
Wish: $19.5M

And to add insult to injury, Wish only garnered $17.3M Internationally, for a worldwide 5-Day weekend total of just $49 Million.




Fuck you, Disney. You didn't even make 1/10th of what you needed to break even on a 5-Day Opening Weekend.

You've made 24.5% of your production budget back now. That's Elemental and Strays level. But I guess you can claim that you did better on Wish's opening weekend here than you did with Haunted Mansion's 21%.

Good for you!



If this weren't a holiday weekend, Wish would have been in the bottom 5 opening weekends for blockbuster movies in 2023 giving Renfield a run for its money.

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Monday, November 27, 2023 6:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Official numbers are in and Wish takes 3rd place, a million behind Napoleon for the weekend.

The Marvels took 6th place behind Thanksgiving.

The weekend take for The Marvels and Wish combined didn't match Songbirds and Snakes.



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Tuesday, November 28, 2023 7:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wish posts its first Sub-Million day on Day 6.

$745,473 on Monday, November 27th.


It took The Marvels 18 days to post its first Sub-Million day.

$339,774 on Monday, November 27th.





Holy shit. Disney must be in pure panic mode right now. They barely managed to make $1 Million yesterday with their two final "blockbusters" of 2023 that cost a combined total of $475 Million to produce.



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Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wish drops -62% to $7,412,000 on Weekend 2.

Worldwide Gross after 12 days is $81,555,942 or 41% of the Production Budget.

Wish is going to make The Marvels look like a successful movie.



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Sunday, December 3, 2023 7:50 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


some are saying that Napoleon is dropping so fast that Wish might beat it?

Both have reported crazy Budget production of $150–200 million

If Wish fails it seems to be all on Disney if Napoleon fails it seems to spread across 3 studios Columbia /Sony/Apple

a discussion of overseas numbers on website boxoffice theory

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31813-napoleon-909m-overseas-
1366m-ww
/
,
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31794-wish/

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Sunday, December 3, 2023 10:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
some are saying that Napoleon is dropping so fast that Wish might beat it?

Both have reported crazy Budget production of $150–200 million

If Wish fails it seems to be all on Disney if Napoleon fails it seems to spread across 3 studios Columbia /Sony/Apple

a discussion of overseas numbers on website boxoffice theory

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31813-napoleon-909m-overseas-
1366m-ww
/
,
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31794-wish/



Regardless of how Napoleon performed, it was already a flop on opening weekend and I called that on November 23rd.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
$28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.

Killers of the Flower Moon which also cost $200M to make only made $23.25 Million on Opening Weekend and after 5 weeks has still failed to make back even 75% of the Production Budget Worldwide.

Napoleon may do better, given the kick start of the 5-Day Holiday Weekend, but probably not by much if it does. The audience and critics ratings are both in the middling 60's here, which doesn't bode well.



After 12 days, it's got $136,640,000.

So I'm sure that it's doing better than Killers of the Flower Moon was doing at 12 days worldwide since it's only got $154,313,005 after 45 days... But like I said... Not by much.


Both of these movies cost a STUPID $200 Million to make.

Napoleon has made 68% of this back. Killers has made 77% of this back.

Neither will gross their production budget worldwide before exiting theaters.

Both need $500 Million to break even.


Supposedly nobody cares or even expected either of these to break even in the theaters and they were looking only to make "Oscarbait" films and they're going to "make money" with them on streaming revenue.

Half of that will be true. I'm sure they'll both be fighting against each other at the Oscars.

But I don't see how they'll ever actually make money on either of these because of streaming. But it's also virtually impossible to prove that they don't make any money on these either.

It's easy to prove that nothing Disney puts out on its streaming service will make any money when you see articles stating that Disney+ loses hundreds of millions every quarter. I don't ever see articles about Apple or Amazon Prime losing money every quarter.

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 9:23 AM

WHOZIT


I went to Walmart Saturday and went to the toy section to find something for the Toys for Tots box at work, the toy section was full of 'Wish' crap. There was even a shelf just for 'Wish' crap. A little stuffed 'Wish' star (which was kind of cute) was almost $15.

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Sunday, December 10, 2023 10:18 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
I went to Walmart Saturday and went to the toy section to find something for the Toys for Tots box at work, the toy section was full of 'Wish' crap. There was even a shelf just for 'Wish' crap. A little stuffed 'Wish' star (which was kind of cute) was almost $15.



COMING SOON, TO AN OLLIE'S NEAR YOU!



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Sunday, December 10, 2023 8:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wish finally breaks $100 Million Worldwide after 19 days. It still hasn't broke $50 Million in the US though.

The Marvels still hasn't broke $200 Million Worldwide after 31 days, making only $1.3 Million on Weekend 5.



You're about $1.8 BILLION in the hole for 2023, Disney. These peanuts aren't helping your case.


These two movies combined aren't going to gross what Wish alone was going to need to break even for you.

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Monday, December 11, 2023 2:44 PM

WHOZIT


'Wish' has been nominated for a Golden Globe, no joke, check if you don't believe me.

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Monday, December 11, 2023 3:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
'Wish' has been nominated for a Golden Globe, no joke, check if you don't believe me.



The Golden what?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266669/golden-globes--number-of-vi
ewers
/



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