Two nations reacting badly to Trump (Three, if you count Mexico) by SIGNYM

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Two nations reacting badly to Trump (Three, if you count Mexico)

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, January 19, 2017 12:35
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017 10:02 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

China and Germany.

BOTH based their economic progress on exports and a positive balance of trade. The USA, as the largest importer in the world, is a main driver for OTHER nations' economies.

Naturally, both Xi Jinging and Angela Merkel are reacting badly to the idea of a "border tax" for the USA.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/merkel-says-she-ready-fight-g
enerational-battle-trump-preserve-liberal-democracy-and
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/highlights-xi-jinpings-davos-
speech-attacks-protectionism-praises-free-trade-no-inte

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 6:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I find it an interesting kind of symmetry that while neither Trump nor Obama attended Davos, Xi Jinping did.

China and Germany depend on exports for survival. I think they boxed themselves in with that policy, but in the short run (3-10 years) they CANNOT reduce their exports to the world.

China seems to have developed a plan whereby they will loan money to the various nations in order to win infrastructure-development projects. Since I work with someone who came from Ethiopia and who still travels back and forth on family business, I'm able to get a unique perspective on Africa, and his view is that the most under-appreciated trend in economics is China's huge investments in Africa, including deepwater ports, rail lines, roadways, and cell communication networks. China is also investing heavily in south and central Asia under its "One Belt, One Road" plan. I'm not sure how successful China will be: While its economic plan seems to be viable in the 30-year timeframe (they will create demand in other nations to support their own workforce, like a Chinese version of the USA Marshall Plan after WWII) their financial system seems prone to all kinds of crazy internal booms and busts. And militarily, if China intends to expand the way that they seem to be planning, it will not tolerate being bottled up in the South China Sea by the USA and its allies.

As an aide, if China wants to be "the" world financier and supplier, it eventually will need a world-sized army to enforce its contracts, just as the USA has done.

Germany is another story. It both exported to, and lent to, southern Europe. But nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain have been impoverished and Germany can no longer rely on them as its market.

Quote:
Germany runs regular trade surpluses since 1952, primarily due to strong exports of vehicles and other machinery. In 2015 main trading partners were the US, France and the Netherlands; and the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with the US, the UK, France, Austria and UAE. Germany records trade deficits with China, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia and Vietnam.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade I'm not sure how Germany intends to get out of the box that its in, it doesn't seem to have a plan like China does, but I think its funny that Merkel thinks jawboning Davos on international "free trade" and Germany's moral values will be successful. They're in a quandary.

Overall, the USA has been the main purchaser for decades, and has run a huge negative trade balances since 1976.

Quote:
The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Japan, Germany and Mexico. United States records trade surpluses with Hong Kong, Netherlands, United Arab Emirates and Australia.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade In the long run, NO nation can run an unending negative trade balance forever.

One of the interesting things I learned in my World History class in high school (near Buffalo btw) was that capitalism is not engaged in a never-ending quest for cheap labor and cheap raw materials, but that the REAL quest is for MARKETS. The USA has been that market for at least 40 years, pulling various world economies along and creating jobs and political stability everywhere else with our endless appetite for imports.

Now, my PERSONAL opinion about the best course for the USA ... or for ANY nation, for that matter ... is to be as self-sufficient as possible. In addition, each nation should strive to have an overall NEUTRAL balance of trade ... otherwise you will be dependent on either imports or exports for continued economic health. And- just to put a fine point on it- every import should have a second-source. (That is part of the answer to WHAT ARE AMERICA'S INTERESTS, by the way, a topic which everyone - while professing to stand up for America;s interests apparently hasn't a fucking clue as to what those might be.)

Although it is necessary for USA economic health, Trump's Make America Great Again (made in America again) threatens the existence of nations who depend on exporting to the USA, like China and Mexico. Upending the economies of other nations is going to cause a lot of sturm und drang ("storm and stress") elsewhere. We, as a nation, will need to be able to handle that turmoil in ways that are positive for us. Trump seems to want to split China and Russia by treating them disparately instead of forcing them together in one block. I'm no sure how successful that will be but I think it's a good idea. The other thing Trump will have to do is figure out how to handle China's growing militarism. Trump needs to maintain ties with our various regional allies like Japan, S Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, but China is aggressively courting in that region.

So, overall, there are a lot of challenges ahead. Not phony made-up problems like "golden showers" but real problems with real nations who have real interests which conflict with ours.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake

"If you aren't aware, Texans don't have much concern for the well-being of Yankees or Californians, even Yankee factory workers in Indiana "- SECOND

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 6:10 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER

only 2? You are fooling yourself. Easier to name the countries not reacting badly - Russia, North Korea and the Philippines, Taiwan. Most other nations are gritting their teeth and are in damage control for 4 years

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 6:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

The UK is happy with a Trump win.

I'm betting you're going to see that a lot of Western Europe is on board too when they vote out the globalists and separate from the EU.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 8:34 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The UK is happy with a Trump win.

Nope.

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"Objective truths are established by evidence. Personal truths by faith. Political truths by incessant repetition."

Russia's and Assad's War Crimes in Syria - http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=60278
Evidence the Syrian regime sponsors ISIS - http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=60521

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Wednesday, January 18, 2017 8:39 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK