2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread by 6ixStringJack

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2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Saturday, April 19, 2025 00:05
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Sunday, April 13, 2025 2:11 PM

Things just got interesting...

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259110830-Weekend-projections-Minecra
ft-enjoys-strong-hold-against-army-of-new-releases

Though the worldwide total fell very comfortably in my range, the way it got there surprised me a bit.

International totals were lower than the peaks I thought they could possibly hit, but the US Box office defied most predictions and ended up only 2-million short from the top of the wide range that Variety gave it for weekend 2. $80 Million for the weekend projected, and because Universal has no reason to lie about these numbers temporarily for better headlines, I suspect that it did better than that. This is only a 50% drop at $80m, and it is possible that it could end up with the $82 Million that Variety predicted at their top of range.

I have not, nor would I ever have predicted only a 50% drop here (which is even less than that, when you remove the Thursday Preview number out and compare both 3-day weekends).

So now we're already sitting at $550 Million worldwide, which is a $100 Million gross profit for Warner Bros and counting.

I do believe that I might have to increase my prediction once the final totals come in on Monday. Minecraft's US total was dipping quite significantly during the week compared to Super Mario Bros, but after the 2nd weekend it caught right back up and they remain neck and neck in the Domestic Box office (when not adjusting for inflation, of course).

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

The international total however, at least so far, paints a much different picture for Minecraft. In the end, The Super Mario Bros movie only got 42.3% of its total worldwide gross in the US. As of right now, 51% of Minecraft's worldwide box office is from the US.

Less than 9% might not sound like much, but you have to consider that's a 9% on both ends (meaning that it's effectively 9% less for domestic and 9% more for international at the same time, which is an important distinction to make in this case). And when we're talking about $1.4 Billion that results in huge differences in your predicted final worldwide total.

It is still my opinion that there is still zero chance for Minecraft to make $1 Billion, but the small drop in US box office on Weekend 2 is now starting to lead me to believe that $650 is going to come and go and we're going to be talking over $700 Million very soon here.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Monday, April 14, 2025 1:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

It appears that somebody must have misspoke or overstated the original projections for the weekend. I figured that the real number was actually going to be higher than $80 Million, but that projection has now been reduced to only $78.5 Million before the final numbers come in.

$1.5 Million doesn't really change all that much in the scheme of things, but I did want to point this out because I said earlier that I thought it would be higher than $80 and could possibly hit the high end of Variety's prediction for the weekend. Even at $78.5 Million it defied nearly everyone's expectations, including mine.

Mistakes can be made and I've seen them in places like this where they don't usually belong before, so it's not a huge surprise. Usually when I see projections higher than the actual numbers though, it's when a big-budget flick fails pretty badly and they're looking to pad those negative headlines early with higher than reasonable Projections, and usually only in the first two weekends.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, April 15, 2025 3:22 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 9:02 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

maybe predictions were off a little I tought Thunderbolts would be out earlier

its going to be a big big hit maybe 'huge' the competition is meh I was into the movie before "Under Pressure" trailer

not sure how good it does but it makes money

it gets Disney / Marvel cash but there is the loss of neo remake nu Snow White

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:17 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I wouldn't go into nearly any Marvel movie these days with any positive vibes until after you see how opening weekends plays out.

I don't know where you're hearing this thing is going to possibly be a big hit. I see that Disney thinks it could be a sleeper hit because of some alleged good preview showings. Predictions that are out right now are somewhere in between Snow White and Blacktain Anti-America for the opening weekend Domestic, so unless Disney finally figured out a way to make their movies under $100 Million overnight and this was the first one, my assumption right now is that any Marvel movie coming out without the names Deadpool and/or Wolverine will lose money for Disney.

You know what the budget is?

...

Google AI's answer:

Quote:
The Thunderbolts movie has a reported production budget of $200 million. This figure does not include the estimated $100-150 million in global marketing and promotional costs. To break even, the film may need to earn between $700-750 million globally.

Google AI is high on crack and/or Reddit.

If it cost $200 Million to make, it needs to make $500 Million to break even.

And that's assuming that the 2.5xRoT model is still even valid in 2025.

I think, counter-intuitively after what the Democrats inflicted on the poorest quarter of Americans in the last 4 years, that things are actually getting quite a bit cheaper to get done in Hollywood than they ever typically would be. Stuff isn't being shot, equipment isn't being rented, and prime real estate where smaller studios would usually have to book time are only being utilized at about 1/3rd of their capacity on any given day. We're talking stuff that you got on a long waiting list for unless you were one of the It People. You can just walk in off the street and rent out space today for today if you got the scratch.

I don't hear ANYBODY in 2025 trying to push the lie that some were a few years back that a movie needed to make 3 times the production budget to break even, and you might remember it took me MONTHS of reading articles from mostly left-wing sources and what they were saying about it that I finally decided to raise the model from 2.0x to 2.5x.

I actually hear a lot of people going back to the 2x model right now. But that could be Hollywood feeding bad info out there too. Who knows anymore.

All I know is that the so-called "AI" bot on duty tonight is getting really bad info from somewhere and presenting it at the top of the search results.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
All I know is that the so-called "AI" bot on duty tonight is getting really bad info from somewhere and presenting it at the top of the search results.

Yanno.....

If it is so smart and it has all the time in the world to search the internet before bringing a result back to us at a speed that may as well be instantaneous, why is it bringing me this trash that came out of some random dummy shitposting on reddit?

What's wrong buddy? I ain't in that big a hurry. I can wait 10 more seconds for you to do some more searching if it means that you can double check your work a few dozen times times before just grabbing the first post you saw on Reddit and coming back to me with "facts" that were clearly derived from a reddit-based troll post and/or a very stupid person.

How much electricity did you use up finding this crap, filtering it through a spellcheck and other obvious doctoring up you did when most people can't write, and putting it out there as a legitimate answer to my question? How can you even justify your own existence in the current state you are in? You must be aware from the articles written about you that you're being billed as something that can be trusted and is going to save lives, and yet you would come back to me with this answer and I'm supposed to believe I can rely on any answer you've ever given me in the past about any topic?

Where are the checks on its own checks? What if I was asking it important questions that needed solid information quickly?

And as going on half a century of living behind us now has learned us, there's a whole lot of really dumb folk out there.

I'll let you make your own correlations with those two concepts and what implications for the future they may bring.

hmmmmmmmmm...

I wonder how long it will be before more people than not don't even realize that there is more stuff below the AI response that is taking up more than 100% of their tiny phone screen gives shits out. I think it's a question about a plausible situation in the future since a good deal of young folk might not have ever spent much time in front of a computer that offers a MUCH different experience with the internet than the phone or tablet does.

Oh... what am I talking about. At the rate we're going, they'll forget to even bother learning how to read before that became a problem, and by that point, their devices that they trust more than their own mother will verbally tell them exactly what they need to hear whenever they ask it a question.

80% of the cretins walking around with these abominations would never touch a computer in their lives if everything hadn't been dumbed down to the point that they could wrap their monkey brains around them just enough to get it to make their lives easier, but not nearly enough to understand just what all they give away in return once they've made themselves the fucking product.

Why bother going to the trouble of collaring everyone when it turns out that you can get nearly everyone to collar themselves and make them think it was their own idea?

I liked the world a whole lot more when all the cool tech was limited to only the top 20% of people in the intelligence pool, and everything that we were interested in was just labeled as "uncool" to the monkeys that were too stupid to even figure out how to turn them on, let alone what you were supposed to do when you saw that little white line flashing but nothing else was happening.

This was a social contract we had for decades... and the world would be a much better place today than it turned out had it never been. But one day the price of tech went way down while the tech itself kept improving, and some point we finally crossed that line where the tech became affordable while being capable enough to bypass all the hurdles that made trying to sell computers to monkeys just completely evaporate. And then the contract was breached, and nothing was ever the same again.

Fast forward 30 years and now all the monkeys run around with tech I only could have dreamed owning one day when I was a kid, while I stay as far the hell away from all of it as I can on most days.

Life is just funny that way sometimes.

I don't know about you.... but if I could go back to the 90's and live there forever, I would.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, April 17, 2025 3:40 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

and Marvel Disney are going All-In with the Fan4 ...another try

third remade btw tht is is you dont count low-budget specialists Roger Corman and Bernd Eichinger, an unreleased 1994 English-language German superhero film, story by Craig J. Nevius based on comicbook

so officially its three strikes youre out?

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Thursday, April 17, 2025 4:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

If Pedro is in something, I'm out.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, April 18, 2025 5:41 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

Minecraft yeah it seems its not beating the Super MarioBros Movie, certainly not beating Incredibles 2, it has defeated 'Sonic' and made money so Hollywood does have a 'hit' of sorts

...and people seemed nervous, some downward dips,

the economy stupid

and it was starting to fall before the latest 'Trade War' stuff took off

A movie is entering top 10 WW, just in a single market
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33033-stop-the-world-a-movie-
is-entering-top-10-ww-just-in-a-single-market/

SNOW WHITE | 90.9M overseas | 168.4M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32980-snow-white-909m-oversea
s-1684m-worldwide/page/2/#comments

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Saturday, April 19, 2025 12:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I don't believe we're going to see those two lines cross again...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

3 days later...

It's had a fantastic hold. It grossed $6.5 Million on it's 3rd Thursday night, counting Preview Thursday. $6.5 Million is more than what all but the top performing movies of the last two years get on their own Preview Thursday.

Bruce is predicting only a -26% drop this weekend, which is the lowest prediction I've ever seen for a movie since I started paying attention.

Though that would keep the lines from separating any further this weekend, that's all it would do. Even at only a -26% drop, that would be $57 Million. The Super Mario Movie had a MUCH better 2nd weekend hold than Minecraft did, so even though it dropped -35% on weekend 3, it still made $59 Million.

-26% or better is nothing short of a miracle, in my opinion, so there's no way it's going to earn enough to bring the lines back together even though it's done amazing all week.

And the percentage of the Domestic/International will slightly improve twoard the international audience after they dump their weekly numbers on Sunday, it won't change it much from roughly 53% to maybe %50. Super Mario Bros had a 57.7% international haul. So if Minecraft is not doing as well in the US as Super Mario did, it's doing even worse internationally.

It's still nowhere near a $1 Billion movie, but everyone involved should be proud of what they did in this rough market.

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6ixStringJack	04.19 00:05