CINEMA

The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Sunday, December 24, 2023 14:06
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Thursday, October 12, 2023 2:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


*NOTE: I edited the title to add Beyonce's run in here, keeping these separate from actual movies released in theaters.

I honestly have no idea what's going to happen with this one.

I've heard it will only make $70 Million opening weekend, and I've also heard that it's already made $150 Million worldwide in pre-sales. None of this seems to come from any legitimate sources, so I'm curious to see what Bruce has to say about it over the next few days.

They're saying the budget was only $10 Million too. That's a little unfair a comparison to any legitimate movie out there because the concerts were already going on and if they had made those concerts specifically to make a movie, it likely would have cost closer to what your typical Disney movie cost to make.

I'm not counting this event among movies in the list for 2023. It is going to be its own separate thing.

I wonder how many years it will be before you're going to the IMAX to see big sporting events, and honestly, I'm wondering why that hasn't happened already.

Only in the 2020's would a concert sell this many tickets in theaters. Back when I still went to concerts, the ticket prices for the actual concert cost as much as people are going to pay to see this thing in a theater. Concerts and live sporting events are now a thing for only the rich people.

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Thursday, October 12, 2023 10:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Looks like it's in 3,850 theaters in the US and 8,000 worldwide in 90 territories.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255370830-Theater-counts-TAYLOR-SWIFT
-THE-ERAS-TOUR-takes-off-in-3-850-theaters


According to Bruce, it already made $100 Million worldwide in presales. That about splits the difference between the high and low ends of what I was seeing on reddit.

But Bruce also names the prices for tickets at 19.89 and 13.13 for adults and children, and I've already heard that even though this is what Swift wanted the tickets will actually be more than this at most places and the average adult ticket in the US would be something like 20.80 each.


From what I hear there are no previews tonight, so we won't know anything until the weekend.

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Friday, October 13, 2023 12:59 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Per Deadline on October 10th:
Quote:

Eras Tour won’t be having Thursday previews because Swift wants the film launching on her lucky day of Friday the 13th, so the first shows are at 6 p.m. that night.


https://deadline.com/2023/10/taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-barbi
e-sellouts-box-office-1235568192/#comments




Reports that there would be no previews on Thursday because Friday the 13th was Swift's lucky day appear to have been incorrect.

Eras Tour made $2,800,000 in previews on Thursday night in 2,700 locations ($1,037 per theater).

Since I have no idea how this one is going to play out, I don't know if I can read correctly into what that would mean.

Firstly, I would assume that if sites like Deadline were going to put into print that there would be no previews, they must have based that off the fact that there were no pre-sale tickets for Thursday night, so those almost certainly had to be walk-up ticket sales. (And honestly, I'm not sure if they ever do pre-sales for any Thursday night previews... I don't know how that works for a regular movie).


Last weekend, Exorcist: Believer did $2,850,000 in previews in 3,050 theaters ($934 per theater).

Flop Blue Beetle did $3,300,000 on preview Thursday (08/17) in 3,400 theaters ($971 per theater).

Flop Shazam II did $3,400,000 on preview Thursday (03/16) in 3,400 theaters ($1000 per theater).

Flop The Little Mermaid did $10,300,000 on preview Thursday (5/25) in an unknown amount of theaters.

Flop Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania did $17,500,000 on preview Thursday (2/16) in an unknown amount of theaters.

Flop Haunted Mansion did $3,100,000 on preview Thursday (06/27) in an unknown amount of theaters.

Flop The Flash did $9,700,000 on preview Thursday (06/15) in 3,400 theaters ($2,853 per theater).




Barbie did $22,300,000 (07/20) in 3,400 theaters ($6,559 per theater)

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 did $17,500,000 (05/04) in an unknown amount of theaters.

Miles Morales 2 did $17,350,000 (06/01) in 3,562 theaters ($4,871 per theater).

Oppenheimer did $10,500,000 (07/20) in 3,150 theaters ($3,333 per theater).

John Wick: Chapter 4 did $8,900,000 (03/23) in an unknown amount of theaters.

Super Mario Bros didn't have a preview night. It released on a Wednesday. It made $31,702,735 on Wednesday in 4,025 theaters ($7,876 per) and $26,566,130 on Thursday ($6,600 per).



What does this all mean..... ?

Who knows!


First off, at 2 hours and 48 minutes, the run-time is obscene and can only be matched up with Comic Book Movies. Did it only get one showing per screen per night for previews because of the length? Maybe it did, but Guardians 3 would probably have also at 150 minutes. Even The Flash, which flopped, had 144 minutes and managed to garner nearly $10 Million on preview night.

But people were told in print at sites like Deadline (and probably many other sites who copy and pasted that article as their own) that there would be no Thursday night previews for this and decided to stay home.


All in all, if you look at the list of other movies (both flops and successes) and what they made on preview night, Swifts concert film doesn't appear to have great preview night numbers.

Granted, at under 3,000 theaters on preview night, it was in less theaters than most of these other movies got for preview night, but the amount per theater of only $1,037 is pretty small when you look at movies like Miles Morales 2 which got almost 5 times as much, and Barbie which got more than 6.5 times as much.



My take at this point is the Swifties who were saying this is going to be a Billion $ movie were nuts. But I would have said that before these numbers came in.


I still wont make any $ predictions until probably the 2nd weekend goes by. This thing has already made money just from pre-sale tickets alone. There's no question that it's going to be a success (even if I believe they skewed their production budget numbers so hard that I will not be including this with all the actual movies for the year).

One prediction I will make though is that because of the results of this financially, we're going to (for a time) see a lot of other similar efforts by other artists to put concert footage into theaters.

I think among them, one or two might come close to matching this level of success, maybe. But I think this is more of a "lightning in a bottle" scenario and I wouldn't expect concert footage in movie theaters to become a new thing that regularly brings everyone boatloads of extra cash months after a tour is over. Especially not if they're going to be charging premium prices for the tickets like they did for this one.

The biggest audience for this one appears to be tween and young teenage girls. It's Miley Cyrus all over again, but somehow Taylor Swift managed to pull the draw off that young demographic while in her early-to-mid 30's. By that time, Britney Spears had already shaved her head and was forced into conservatorship. Christina Aguleara and Jessica Simpson were close to if not already has-beens. Before them, Madonna managed to morph and keep a strong audience well past 30 years old, but I can't imagine any parent would have been taking their daughters to the theater to watch a 3 hour long Madonna concert footage featuring her doing burlesque on stage.


I think concert footage in theaters will be a fad for a while if they pick the correct acts to follow this up (see: Acts that will draw in the tween and teenage girls and their parents). It's not as if this is new or anything. The new part about it is just how much money this one is going to make compared to previous efforts by other artists.

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Friday, October 13, 2023 8:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Eras Tour made $2,800,000 in previews on Thursday night in 2,700 locations ($1,037 per theater).

Since I have no idea how this one is going to play out, I don't know if I can read correctly into what that would mean.

Firstly, I would assume that if sites like Deadline were going to put into print that there would be no previews, they must have based that off the fact that there were no pre-sale tickets for Thursday night, so those almost certainly had to be walk-up ticket sales. (And honestly, I'm not sure if they ever do pre-sales for any Thursday night previews... I don't know how that works for a regular movie).




Per Bruce at the-numbers.com tonight:

Quote:

This is the moment when I would usually hone our prediction with the benefit of Thursday’s preview numbers. I’m not able to do that this week because of the unusual nature of the previews. They were announced just a couple of days ago after most superfans had already bought tickets, and not all theaters played them. Our model would be looking at those $2.8-million in last-minute ticket sales as pointing towards a weekend around $30 million. We already know domestic pre-sales for this weekend exceed that figure. In other words, the preview number really tells us nothing about how the weekend will turn out.


Yup.


Bruce predicts an opening Domestic weekend of $130 Million for this and a final Domestic take of $293 Million.

He does not expect this thing to do anywhere near the business that Barbie did at $635 Million Domestic total after a $162 Million weekend.

His Opening Weekend prediction also includes all the Swiftie pre-sales, and I'd assume he's considering this thing to be pretty front-loaded by super-fans while he doesn't expect it to have anywhere near the staying power that Barbie had.


If the Domestic / International split for this concert thing is the same as Barbie's was (44% / 56%) and Bruce's prediction for Domestic is correct, this thing could be looking at making around $660 Million worldwide.

I think that figure is a little bit (or a lot) too ambitious.

If it hit $660 Million worldwide, that would place it at #8 on the list for 2023, beating every mega-budget Disney movie except for Guardians 3 by at least $100 Million and only being topped by Barbie, Super Mario Bros., Oppenheimer, Guardians 3, Fast X, Miles Morales 2 and a movie from China that is in 7th place.

I think this one is more front-loaded than Bruce believes it to be and it's not very likely to get the repeat viewings that the blockbusters get for two simple reasons.

1. A good majority of these overpriced tickets are being purchased by parents that are taking their daughters to see it, and many of them aren't going to be likely to spend that much money on a repeat viewing of this. (When repeat-viewings are a huge part of the revenue of most Super Hero movies, or movies like Super Mario Bros and Barbie).

2. A good deal of those parents probably aren't ultra-mega Swift fans themselves and wouldn't want to sit through another 3 hour concert documentary even if the tickets weren't overpriced.


Because of the weird nature of the pre-sales on this one, I still won't even dare putting out a prediction on this until the 2nd weekend's numbers roll in though, other than to say that I believe $660 Million worldwide is pie-in-the-sky thinking here.

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Saturday, October 14, 2023 1:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$39 Million projected for Friday night (Including the $2.8 Million from Thursday previews).

Compare that to the top Opening Friday releases of 2023 so far:

Barbie: $70.5 Million
Super Mario Bros: $55 Million
Miles Morales 2: $52 Million
Guardians 3: $48 Million
Antman & the Wasp: Quantumania: $46 Million
Taylor Swift: $39 Million
The Little Mermaid: $38 Million

The top 2022 releases:

Doctor Strange 2: $91 Million
Black Panther 2: $84 Million
Thor Love and Thunder: $69.5 Million
Jurassic World: Dominion: $59.5 Million
The Batman: $56.5 Million
Avatar 2: $53 Million
Top Gun: Maverick: $52 Million
Minions: Rise of Gru: $48 Million

The Top 2021 releases:
Spider-Man: No Way Home: $122 Million
Black Widow: $39.5 Million
Venom: Let there be Carnage: $37.5 Million

*NOTE: No movies from 2020 even hit the Top 100 Friday list, which bottoms out at $33 Million.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/bes
t-performance-by-day-of-the-week/friday



From that list, it is hanging around mostly with the big-budget Disney movies that ultimately ended up being box office losers despite a decent opening weekend. Movies such as Antman Quantumania, The Little Mermaid and Black Widow.

With the possible exception of Black Widow, I don't suspect it's actually going to come close to any of those with the final Worldwide gross though. Antman made $623 Million. The Little Mermaid made $568 Million. Black Widow made $379 Million.

It slightly outpaced Venom: Let there be Carnage, but despite only making $37.5 Million on Opening Friday, it went on to make $501 Million worldwide and wasn't a flop because the production budget was only $110 Million.

And from a pure tickets sold standpoint the situation is even worse because tickets in general have never been as expensive as they are in 2023, and there is a $4 to $5 premium on this concert show.


It's still going to make a mint at the box office though. Even though there would be about zero chance this thing ever made any real money if they made the concert specifically for theatrical release and had to include all of that in the production budget, this concert tour IRL already made a ton of money, and I can't really cast any legitimate doubt on claims that it only cost $10 to $20 Million more for production budget. It's not as if it has any big-name stars it needs to pay, or any special effects for that matter. Taylor is going to pay herself with the money after the fact since she's heavily involved in the production. The only real production costs would be the extra cameras on site and a lot of editing, along with the distribution.

The only real extra cost that we're probably not going to be privy to is that in order for her to release this, she had to agree to a sweet interim deal with the Guilds, which seem to require her to pay some pretty hefty royalty fees for streaming that none of the other movies which came out in 2023 have to pay.


I haven't read any articles about this yet, but I would have to imagine that $39 Million is kind of a disappointment for a lot of people (especially Swift fans) after all the buildup. Even though I think it will actually now end up making more than Bruce's $120 Million prediction (he did mention that up to $150 Million was in the cards), I get the feeling that people thought this was going to really have a great chance at rivaling Barbie and other mega-blockbusters. It won't.

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Saturday, October 14, 2023 1:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hmmm...

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/taylor-swift-eras-
tour-box-office-badass-1235618353
/

Hollywood Reporter says only $100 Million opening weekend, and claims that AMC is still sticking with the $100 Million prediction despite the $39 Million Friday.

That's interesting to me. I would have figured that this one would do better on Saturday/Sunday than a lot of other movies do in relation to Friday simply because of the parents taking their daughters to see the thing, and the fact that they were telling us a lot of shows for opening weekend were sold out a week ago. There are probably more showtimes during the weekend than there were on Friday and/or just more sold out shows in general on those days because a lot of people work on Friday and the kids were in school.


And then there's this... If you look at Barbie, it made $70.5 Million on Friday, $48 Million on Saturday and $43.5 Million on Sunday.

If you subtract the $22.5 Million Barbie got on Thursday previews from Friday, it was $48 Million / $48 Million / $43.5 Million.

Using that same metric here, Swift's thing should get $39 Million / $39 Million / $35.5 Million, or a weekend total of $113.5 Million, which would be closer to Bruce's original prediction than AMC's. And I still think it's going to behave differently than Barbie did and make more on Saturday/Sunday than Barbie did.



Honestly, I think that AMC knows this and is playing it kind of smart. I still think a lot of Swift fans are going to be disappointed that this thing isn't shattering any records other than the Concert Tour Movie specific record after opening weekend, but it will be able to claim that it did 10% to 20% better opening weekend than they expected it to. And with no possible downside because of the budget, it's going to be one of the rare times in 2023 when movie sites run defense for a movie that they're not fudging numbers or outright lying when they do it.

They don't have to. It's already a winner after one night. If the budget was $20 Million, they already virtually doubled that in the US alone, let alone the other 89 unreported territories it's playing in. Assuming a $20 Million budget, by the end of the weekend, Worldwide, it is probably likely to have already brought in at least 10 times the production budget. (1,000%)

(and once again, I will not be putting this on the list with the other movies for 2023 because it's not even comparable to any of them and it's not a level playing field.)





And AMC really needs a win. They claim that it was market manipulation that is the cause, and there's probably some truth to that, but after they did some bogus stock split into "APE" shares a year or two back, then re-integrated those back into the normal shares before they did a reverse 10-to-1 stock split, they really screwed over their investors who have now lost about 90% of their stock value since that initial split.

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Sunday, October 15, 2023 2:45 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It appears that projections for this are only $97 Million on the-numbers. Hollywood Reporter says $95 to $97 Million, and as I suspected, even without crossing the $100 Million threshold that pretty much everybody expected that it would, they're still pumping that up to be a great success.

To be sure, given how little it cost to make, it IS a great success, but it's just funny watching the outlets put their spin on things after their high predictions were wrong.

Normally, I'd say that it probably still did over $100 Million and that AMC was just lowballing the projection like the Studios always do with new movies and/or setting it up for more positive media coverage when/if the actual numbers come out above $100 Million tomorrow, but from what I've read AMC didn't put these projections out there and the projection was provided by a third party outfit Comscore. That removes the motive to purposefully give a lowball projection, but since I know nothing of Comscore before today I don't know how accurate they are in their projections and/or if the nature of this film makes it harder to predict for them than your standard movie.


From what I gather, the Eras Tour will only be shown on Fridays through Sundays because it's an "event". If true, that intentional scarcity of showings should keep this thing from dropping as much next weekend as they normally would have.

What is "normal" here? Who knows.


It appears that the lower than expected weekend number is being attributed to "virtually no walk-up business", per Hollywood Reporter. This would indicate that it probably won't have the longevity that was initially hoped for. The people who saw it this weekend were the people who have been waiting months to see it. And one could probably assume that a bulk of the people who see it next weekend were people who were either busy this weekend or weren't able to get a ticket to a showing close to where they live at a time that was convenient.

However, I think there will be more repeat business than I thought there would be, because the largely female audience was much older than I expected it to be. While they're saying 82% of the tickets purchased were female, only 17% of the tickets purchased were teenagers, and 63% of the tickets were 18 to 34 years old. I guess I probably should have figured that since Swift has been around a long time now.



I don't think this will have too much of a negative effect on The Marvels, which is coming out on November 10th. That movie is going to have plenty of other problems to deal with, but I don't expect Eras to have anywhere close to the longevity and relevance that Barbie did.

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Monday, October 16, 2023 9:38 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' film captures the joy of a live-music experience: 'I got chills'

“I got chills when the movie started and definitely got emotional a couple of other times,” says Susie Lujano, who attended a Thursday night screening at the AMC Houston 8 downtown with her husband.

Lujano was at night three of the Eras Tour in Houston and plans to see the movie two more times over the weekend. She appreciates “being able to see all the details you miss when you’re at the show,” most notably the visuals during the “Reputation” era.

That is indeed one of the many strengths of the “Eras” film. Even those near the stage probably missed some of the details that come alive onscreen. The color-coordinated microphones for each era. Swift’s rainbow nails. The intricacy of the costumes. The joy that courses across each dancer’s face and through their bodies. Kameron N. Saunders’ effusiveness, in particular, is infectious.

The film’s setlist runs a few songs shorter than the stage show. Cuts include “The Archer,” “Wildest Dreams” and, most notably, “Cardigan.” But there’s still plenty to sing along with (as encouraged by most theater chains). Opener “Cruel Summer” is a pastel blast of pop euphoria. You’ll get swept up in the heart swell of “Love Story.” The entirety of the “Evermore” era is riveting and at times feels like an homage to Stevie Nicks.

Director Sam Wrench and cinematographer Brett Turnbull film it all beautifully. The entire screen almost seems to glow. Every dancer, set piece and wave to the crowd is given equal importance. Swift herself comes off self-aware and comfortable in her celebrity. No grainy behind-the-scenes moments or confessional interviews needed. Just a superstar and the gigantic, immersive stage that she at one point dives into and disappears.

But what truly makes “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” sing is the happiness that emanates from every frame. That’s what music is in its purest form: joy. It’s what reverberates through dancers Karen Chuang, Whyley Yoshimura and Tori Evans. It’s what inspires every Swiftie to create outfits and trade bracelets. And it’s what has kept me coming back since that first Chewbacca confession.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/entertainment/movies_tv/article/taylo
r-swift-eras-tour-film-review-houston-showing-18422045.php


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, October 16, 2023 10:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


At the end of the day, the main movie news sites were predicting anywhere from $100 Million to $150 Million opening weekend Domestic, with most of them predicting $120 to $150 Million. r/boxoffice at Reddit, which is usually pretty good at collectively making predictions for movies was swamped with Taylor Swift Stans who were claiming the opening weekend was going to be over $300 Million worldwide and that this was a Billion Dollar movie.

It looks like the International audience didn't come out to see it, and the highest opening weekend projection I'm seeing now is just $131 Million worldwide.


After the 2nd weekend finishes, with "virtually no walk-up business", repeat business from superfans is the only business this will be getting. I still think weekend 2 is going to be pretty big because there will be people who wanted to see it but couldn't get a ticket last weekend at a convenient time or were just busy, but the only thing that will keep this alive after next weekend is people shelling out premium prices for a 2nd and 3rd time.

Some countries are charging as much as 3 times your standard movie ticket price for this, which may be a contributing factor for how little it's making overseas compared to the original estimates by the movie news sites.




AMC is going to try this all again in December by releasing a Beyonce tour with high prices. Assuming they cut themselves a good deal, that's not a bad move at all on AMC's part. But I wouldn't expect anywhere near the same success as Taylor Swift is seeing. Beyonce's fanbase is quite a bit older at this point. My prediction for Beyonce's tour movie thing is less than 1/2 of whatever Swift's ends up doing.

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Monday, October 16, 2023 3:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Normally, I'd say that it probably still did over $100 Million and that AMC was just lowballing the projection like the Studios always do with new movies and/or setting it up for more positive media coverage when/if the actual numbers come out above $100 Million tomorrow, but from what I've read AMC didn't put these projections out there and the projection was provided by a third party outfit Comscore. That removes the motive to purposefully give a lowball projection, but since I know nothing of Comscore before today I don't know how accurate they are in their projections and/or if the nature of this film makes it harder to predict for them than your standard movie.



Not that accurate, it would appear.

Also, as I suspected, Comscore had no incentive to lowball the projection like AMC would have.

Total actual sales Domestic this weekend were only $92,804,678, over $4 Million less than the projections.



So it appears that it has to settle for 2nd place for an October opening weekend behind Joker's $96,202,337 in 2019. MSNBC runs defense for Taylor Swift here and says "Yet the Swift film opened on fewer screens than record holder “Joker,” and didn’t have Friday screenings before 6 p.m.", but what they fail to mention is that not only did Joker charge regular price for tickets instead of a $4 to $5 or more premium per ticket like Eras Tour did, but it also set that record in 2019 when tickets were cheaper and before Covid was a thing and Bidenflation wrecked the economy and the value of the US Dollar.

The other incorrect bit of info from that article is the claim that it was AMC's incorrect projection. No... It was not AMC's projection. $95 to $97 Million was Comscore's projection since AMC refused to give a projection after their initial prediction of $100 Million before the opening on Friday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-week
end.html



Also, Variety's latest article is still claiming the high projections instead of admitting the actual number.

https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/taylor-swift-eras-tour-movie-
box-office-takeaways-1235756756
/

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Monday, October 16, 2023 4:45 PM

WHOZIT


As Wash once said, 'do we care? Are we caring about this?'

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Tuesday, October 17, 2023 1:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'm just interested because it's something new and there hasn't really been anything interesting in the box office for a while.

I'm going to laugh pretty hard when the Beyonce concert thing in December falls on its face.

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Friday, October 20, 2023 11:58 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


BoxOfficeReport is a lot ballzier in its 2nd weekend prediction than I would be.

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20231019.html

Quote:

Last weekend AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film debuted with a strong $92.80 million. That easily represented the largest opening weekend gross ever for a concert film and the second largest October opening weekend of all-time (behind only 2019's Joker). High profile concert films typically experience very sharp second weekend declines and that is likely to be the case for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film as well. On top of the built-in front-loading, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will also take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens to Killers of the Flower Moon. With that said, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will have some factors in its favor this weekend, including exceptional word of mouth (the concert film received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore), which could help lead to repeat business, and the fact that the film didn't play from Monday through Wednesday this past week, which should help provide some extra stabilization to this weekend's performance. Look for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film to decline a sharp 66.1 percent this weekend for a healthy second weekend take of $31.5 million.


66%+ IS very steep. That's the type of 2nd week drops that kill Disney movies.

I'm not convinced that it's only going to gross $31.5 Million this weekend. They correctly mentioned that there were no showings from Monday to Wednesday this week (I thought it was Monday through Thursday, but that doesn't appear to be the case), and they do make mention that this should help the weekend numbers, but they still claim a 66% drop. But, as I've said earlier in this thread, I didn't really expect massive drop offs to occur until the 3rd weekend. I'm sure I didn't put a number to it because I said I wasn't even going to do any predictions on the performance of this until after the 2nd weekend was tallied up, but if I did, I probably would have thought a 40% to 45% to be the most likely, with a 50% drop being more unlikely. We're pretty much in uncharted territory right now.

Hell... Bruce didn't even know how many theaters this was getting for its 2nd week last night. I've never seen another instance of that happening before (if you don't count smaller movies like Talk To Me and Sound of Freedom being completely ignored in his weekly theater count articles after they've been out for several months).

Since this actually is getting Thursday night showings, we'll have some data to work with once yesterdays Box Office is posted, but I don't know how much that's even going to help with predictions here.

The oddness of this whole scenario had Bruce talking predictions in his theater count thread last night, another thing which I've never seen him do before:

Quote:

Whether Flower Moon can top the chart this weekend is another question. We’ll have our official predictions tomorrow, but it’s definitely a tough task given that The Eras Tour is coming off a $92.8-million opening. The Taylor Swift concert film wasn’t playing in theaters on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday this week, which means there should be some pent up demand for its renewed run starting on Thursday. If that gives it a better-than-expected hold, it could well stay top.


Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.

Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.



The fact that Bruce was hesitant to even give a prediction last night leads me to believe he must be privy to some information that we aren't yet privy to. Otherwise, I don't know why he didn't come right out and say that Eras was going to be 1st place this weekend after bringing it up a day early.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Bruce has to say tonight.


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Friday, October 20, 2023 8:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce is calling it a coin flip.

His prediction for both of them are around $32 Million over the weekend. He's giving first place to Killers of the Flower Moon with $32.9 Million and 2nd to Eras Tour with a flat $32 Million. He doesn't seem very convinced with either of those predictions though.

I still think he's way off base here...

Deadline reports this now: https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033
/

Quote:

UPDATED, FRIDAY MIDDAY: AMC‘s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is currently looking to hold onto the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office with a second estimated Friday of $10.25 million, off 73% week over week, for what’s looking like a second weekend around $32 million at 3,855 theaters, -66%. That’s a very similar second-weekend decline to Disney’s 2008 concert film Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert. The running total for Eras Tour by EOD Sunday would be $130.7M.

Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening. Some rival distribs even have it higher.



Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.

Deadline doesn't cite its sources here, but they seem pretty confident in stating that the "estimated Friday of $10.25 Million" is correct. I don't know if AMC is saying this, and/or they have all the presale/online sale data at their fingertips, and/or a 3rd party is stating this or what.


Quote:

Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.

Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.



This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.



And I have to make a note to laugh out loud at the coverage both Eras Tour and Killers are getting in the Legacy Media, in particular that Deadline article.

For one, while Eras Tour still is smashing concert records, it will have done CONSIDERABLY LESS business both Domestic and Worldwide than all the Lefty media outfits had claimed it would in the months leading up to where we are now. So watching them just slather on the praise and tout the record breaking feat itself while never calling themselves out for how disappointing the REAL numbers are compared to their earlier predictions is priceless.

And they really need to stop saying things about Killers like "Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening."

No. There is NOTHING that looks "pretty good" about this with its $200 Million budget.

Killers is set to be the biggest flop of Martin Scorsese's storied career, and my prediction in the Hollywood thread from October 18th still stands. This movie is going to make around $70 Million less than the $200 Million Production budget, meaning that it's going to lose Paramount Pictures and Apple around $370 Million by the time it's out of the Box Office. We're talking an Indiana Jones 5 level, catastrophic event here.

And even if somehow I'm just completely wrong about this and it manages to bank $230 Million instead of only $130 Million worldwide, it still loses the studio $270 Million. There is zero chance that anybody involved in the production of Killers gets out of this without losing a ton of money. (Except, ironically, the actors and the writers and anybody of the hourly wage employees who got paid up front to do a job).

Why does Deadline always lie like this, and why does anybody take them seriously anymore?


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Saturday, October 21, 2023 12:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Friday Previews are in...

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour - $10,400,000

This is a -72% drop from last Friday, and it appears that Bruce calculates this drop using the entire Friday figure which includes the first week's Thursday night previews.

i.e.: Last Friday's Era's Tour number was $37,525,947, which includes the $2,800,000 it got in previews Thursday night. The percent decrease of $37,525,947 down to this Friday's estimated $10,400,000 is -72.285%.

What does this mean? / Why is this important?

Well, if you look at other big movies this year, you will probably come to the same conclusion as me that from the 3rd weekend onward the percent drop from the previous Friday/Saturday/Sunday bounces around quite a bit between those days and doesn't necessarily make any reliable pattern. I would say that in general I believe the Friday drop ends up being a little higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops, but without any seriously in-depth analysis of this, that's just a guess made off of skimming a few big movies that came out this year and isn't a hard rule. Overall though, I'd say it's relatively even. Except for in the case of "kid friendly/family friendly" movies, which I'd consider Eras Tour to fall under. (See also: The Super Mario example just below).

The glaring difference in any movie is the first Friday drop, which is always much higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops. This is because those Thursday previews are counted as Friday dollars.

2nd Weekend Drop Examples:

Oppenheimer: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 35%
Barbie: F: 59% / Sat: 28% / Sun: 33%
Super Mario: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 12%


Eras Tour ACTUAL Friday last week was only $35,245,947 when you remove the Thursday night previews of $2,800,000. This leaves the actual drop from last Friday night to -70.493%.

That's still quite high, and obviously higher than the -66% drop that was predicted both before and after the Friday projections came out.

Can it claw its way back to the -66% drop predicted? I think it will. Not only is there a good amount of kids/family audience to this thing, but it made about $3 Million less on last Saturday than it did on Friday, and about $12 Million less on last Sunday than it did on Friday. It has a much lower bar to meet, especially on Sunday.




Killers of the Flower Moon: $6,800,000 (when you subtract the $2,600,000 Thurs. Previews from $9,400,000)

So... When calculating Opening Weekend totals, the Thursday night previews ARE included in that final number. Why did I subtract them? To get a better picture of what the Saturday and Sunday numbers are going to be.

If we were to erroneously make a guess for the rest of the weekend based off of $9,400,000 on Friday night, we'd come up with a number much higher than reality and we might be saying "This thing might actually crack $30 Million this weekend if it's lucky".

It won't.

I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.

Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:

Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)

TOTAL: $23,360,880

That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.

Now... It may have actually made as much as $25 Million and change even if the projections match the above numbers come tomorrow afternoon. As I've noted before, the Studios like to low-ball projections early in a film's life as not to embarrass themselves.

I'd say that a range between $22 Million and $26 Million as the final Domestic Opening Weekend Number is a good range to allow for error in my only using Oppenheimer's 1st weekend performance as the model.




What does that mean for the question of who wins this weekend?

Well Taylor dropped 15% on Saturday and 27% on Sunday last week. But really, because of Thursday previews being added to the Friday number, it only dropped 9.2% on Saturday before dropping 27% on Sunday last week. We'll call it 10%.

And even though it came back into theaters on Thursday after a 3-day hiatus it doesn't get the benefit of adding Thursday's $5.9 Million take to its weekend total because it wasn't opening weekend previews (because that's just how this works).

So... using last week's daily drops as the only real reference to work with we get the following:

Friday: $10,400,000
Saturday: $9,360,000 (-10% of Friday)
Sunday: $6,832,800 (-27% of Saturday)

TOTAL: $26,592,800


Unless the above predictions are insanely off base, Eras wins the weekend by either eeking out the win or having a comfortable lead of up to around the $3 to 4 Million range, and there's no scenario where Killers wins the weekend.

Either way, a hugely disappointing weekend for both productions. This will be Scorsese's largest financial flop of his life, and the Eras Tour is going to do worse than even the lowest 2nd weekend predictions out there going into the weekend, making this two weekends in a row where it under-performed Media expectations.



I'm going to give myself a little bit of cushion here, especially on the Killers movie because Paramount/Apple have an incentive to lowball the predictions. I think I'll give it to Eras Tour as well because of the fact that AMC was not in charge of projections last weekend it ended up being the only movie I can ever recall that actually had lower final numbers on opening weekend than was projected. I've heard that AMC gave the Friday night projection this week, so I'm assuming they don't want that mistake repeated.

My final predictions for top 2 this weekend:

1. Taylor Swift: Eras Tour: $27.5 Million

2. Killers of the Flower Moon: $25 Million

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Monday, October 23, 2023 6:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.



Eras Tour: $33,209,039

Killers of the Flower Moon: $23,253,655

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Wednesday, October 25, 2023 11:07 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


So I might ask for a prediction for trends coming in the next 6 months

the last time money flowed easy, its going back a while Guardians of the Galaxy, Aquaman, the Ironman and Batman movies, Halloween remake, Avengers Age of Ultron, Wonder Woman, Thor Ragnarok, studios knew how to make big block buster money with hits like Avengers Endgame ... just before M-She-U took over and it became Captain Marvel or the Wanda show or She-Hulk
Covid hits the industry hard
There have been a few cinema movies which made money during the crash the Top Gun remake, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Super Mario Bros Movie
they finally sabotage their own ship with all this Antifa Maxist Right Left pro-islamo Transexual Open Border politics

Here's mine, this won't be the last Music Movie Concert thing
it could have been done many decades ago but the editing and technology wasn't there. So I think the Monkees and Hendrix and Bowie and AC/DC and BB King and Eric Clapton and Queen and Joni Mitchell the Beatles were born in the wrong era
People have already done the life story thing many times, Ray Charles, Queen but they have not done a fake-ish concert.

There will be another pop star a 'Taylor Swift' with another fake-ish concert, they won't need to play an instrument or be that great a singer but they will have stage and stardom. I don't know who this person will be an ex member of a boyband or girlband, a Selena Gomez, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, The Killers, Daft Punk, Green Day, U2, Led Zeppelin, ZZTop, Justin Timberlake...you might think some of these bands won't sell out and do such a thing but they will and even if only one member of the band is alive it will be an opportunity to put on one last show.
the band or singer will need to be known, somewhat hip and current
I honestly can not tell you what star people listen to today from pop or hiphip or rock or whatever.

Both Marvel Disney and DC Warner Bros will continue to have flops, too much nonsense put into their movies.

Some stars will lose their power Bad Boys 4 - Flop! Chris Rock has roasted his actions and Will Smith seems more like a pathetic person these days, Joker part II Folie à Deux probably flops I don't see it had the same shock or staying power as the original.
When Fantastic Four finally comes out in 2023, 2024, 2025 it will flop, when Avatar 3 finally comes out in 2024, 2025 or 2026 it will flop.
Another Alien or Aliens prequel or sequel the Untitled Alien Movie, H. R. Giger, Ridley Scott I think this will flop they are expensive to make and Alien movies find it difficult to make profit, the original had a Budget $11 million but modern films of this kind are costing 100 million to make,
are Universal Monsters even a thing anymore?
any idea for a 'Predator' remake or similar type of scifi monster big cgi fx film will fail.

Demolition Man 2 and other science fiction action, might do ok but I have no idea when it comes out.

I don't know if 'The Registration' can make money, people have read the book but it seems to be a thriller murder topic with more adult content meaning you will have less in the cinema seats. Does Sydney Sweeney have star power or maybe she has other upcoming movies that would give it momentum?

An anime version or cinema cartoon version of the "Lord of the Rings" might do very well but I'm not sure, it all depends on how much studios are willing to back some Japanese guy and how well the Japanese guy does this LOTR product.

'Killers of the Flower Moon' is supposed to be a good movie but the Scorsese movie is said to be LONG
these can be hard to prediction and you got the Barbie and Oppenheimer predictions wrong although other movies you almost got the predictions exactly correct
Oppenheimer was long but made 616 M overseas and is making 945 Million worldwide.
Some are already predicting success at $44 Million Box Office it is very early to predict, some might say it will make small profit and the star cinema performance more than returns are not the main measure, the 'Art'? it is being talked about and might make money also on streaming service.

Horror movie trends will continue, there will be a cheap production which can give a big money investment return.

I think S.Korea and some other seas movie and tv makers will continue to dominate streaming service, the South Koreans might have a reasonably successful hit in US Cinemas, I don't think the genre matters much but they will be able to make a somewhat successful global box office movie

That DVD Market, HD, The Blu-Ray will remain dead, you will have one big chance to make your money, there won't be much money returned on DVD sales the world economy is somewhat broke.

There is money to be made but they are smaller slots available and when some cash can arrive during a month it can be very competitive.

Video Game property becoming tv shows and movies will continue being a thing, the comicbook superhero thing is mostly dead for at least another year maybe even longer like a half decade to come or even more.

Canada should be making tv show hits like it has produced shows over the past decades but it is not doing the same today
There is an opportunity for indie cinema and indie tv production in the USA

the last time Hollywood knew how to make money was half a decade ago, they will make less during election year and the fallout from the strikes might continue another year or so.

This will not be the last Pop Taylor Swift Star Concert Thing

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Wednesday, October 25, 2023 1:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So I might ask for a prediction for trends coming in the next 6 months

the last time money flowed easy, its going back a while Guardians of the Galaxy, Aquaman, the Ironman and Batman movies, Halloween remake, Avengers Age of Ultron, Wonder Woman, Thor Ragnarok, studios knew how to make big block buster money with hits like Avengers Endgame ... just before M-She-U took over and it became Captain Marvel or the Wanda show or She-Hulk
Covid hits the industry hard



Yeah. Covid and the resulting tanking of the worldwide economy because of the huge overreaction to it did a number on Hollywood just like it did everybody else. I'm glad they're paying the price since it was most of their "talent" that was spreading all the bad messages in the first place.

Quote:

There have been a few cinema movies which made money during the crash the Top Gun remake, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Super Mario Bros Movie
they finally sabotage their own ship with all this Antifa Maxist Right Left pro-islamo Transexual Open Border politics



There will continue to be hits like these, but they will be much fewer and further between. I think I'm actually going to have to do the unspeakable and see Barbie for myself. Going under the assumption that I've gathered from other people that the movie is a woke feminist flick, I can't figure out how it did so well. That just doesn't make any sense in the current social climate. It may very well have been a woke movie and it will be a fluke, but I think there's more to the story than that. I think I need to know for myself.

Quote:

Here's mine, this won't be the last Music Movie Concert thing
it could have been done many decades ago but the editing and technology wasn't there. So I think the Monkees and Hendrix and Bowie and AC/DC and BB King and Eric Clapton and Queen and Joni Mitchell the Beatles were born in the wrong era
People have already done the life story thing many times, Ray Charles, Queen but they have not done a fake-ish concert.

There will be another pop star a 'Taylor Swift' with another fake-ish concert, they won't need to play an instrument or be that great a singer but they will have stage and stardom. I don't know who this person will be an ex member of a boyband or girlband, a Selena Gomez, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, The Killers, Daft Punk, Green Day, U2, Led Zeppelin, ZZTop, Justin Timberlake...you might think some of these bands won't sell out and do such a thing but they will and even if only one member of the band is alive it will be an opportunity to put on one last show.
the band or singer will need to be known, somewhat hip and current
I honestly can not tell you what star people listen to today from pop or hiphip or rock or whatever.



Well... You're right already. AMC has partnered with Beyonce to do the exact same thing. "Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce" is set to be released on December 1st. I don't know if you knew that or if you saw my prediction for that already. I don't expect it to make half as much as Taylor's thing did.

My prediction on how often this would become a thing they do is probably going to have to wait until after the Beyonce thing wraps up and we see if this is going to be successful as a new model. Beyonce and her husband are great at business and marketing, so maybe I'm wrong and it does better than I give them credit for. I just feel that Beyonce's star has already faded. The last time I even heard her name before hearing about this was when she was doing free concerts to get out the vote for Democrats. And I can't even remember if that was for Joe Biden* or Hillary Clinton*.

If the production budget really is $10 to $20 Million for these types of things, and they can manage to keep the costs on the low end of that or even pare it down a bit with smart decision making, I think we could see a lot more of these, even if Beyonce's only makes half of Taylor's. If they were going to do the tour anyhow, and make all the right decisions when it comes to filming them and streamlining the editing process while keeping the production values high, you could call these things a success even if they only bring in $50 Million each, which would only be around half of what Swift's did in the first weekend. I think there's a number of acts out there today that could easily bring in that much money under this format.

Two caveats though...

1. Lower the price of admission to the same price as regular movies, or this model will not work for most acts.

2. DO NO OVER-SATURATE!!!!!! You know they're going to pump one of these out every month if it becomes profitable, and that's going to be the way that they screw the whole thing up. If you want these things to remain an "Event", you have to treat them as such. No more than 3 or 4 concert tour movies every year, and pick a wide variety of acts so there aren't any that are too similar coming out near each other.


Another prediction I'd make is that it won't only be humans doing these concerts in the not-so-distant future.

Meet Zaein, one of South Korea's most active virtual humans, created with artificial intelligence

https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/10/03/meet-south-koreas-new-artific
ial-intelligence-based-virtual-avatars



Quote:

Both Marvel Disney and DC Warner Bros will continue to have flops, too much nonsense put into their movies.


Yup. As much as it appeared that Disney might finally be learning some lessons, they just announced hiring a new DEI officer. They've learned nothing. WB/DC never learned how to make a franchise stick in the first place.

Quote:

Some stars will lose their power Bad Boys 4 - Flop! Chris Rock has roasted his actions and Will Smith seems more like a pathetic person these days, Joker part II Folie à Deux probably flops I don't see it had the same shock or staying power as the original.


I think Will Smith will have a resurrection at some point. He's got the charisma to pull it off, and I think the world is starting to see that he's in an extremely abusive relationship. I wish him well. I always liked the guy and he starred in some of my favorite things growing up.

I agree on Joker II. Especially if they weren't going to center a new DC universe around the character, Joker is a movie that doesn't need a sequel. I don't see any scenario where that makes the kind of money the first one made. Not only will a lot less people go and see it, but I'm sure after the success of the first one they're going to spend a lot more than $50 Million making the second one.

Quote:

When Fantastic Four finally comes out in 2023, 2024, 2025 it will flop,


100% agreement with you there. Nobody has ever figured out how to do FF4 right, and that was before all the woke crap and bad writers were all diversity hired. I don't even know how a FF4 remake/reboot even gets green-lit in 2023.

Quote:

when Avatar 3 finally comes out in 2024, 2025 or 2026 it will flop.


I dunno man. I'd love to say you're right, but being confident that A2 was going to flop was probably the worst movie prediction I've ever made. I can't even make any predictions on that until it's coming out, and even then I probably won't predict a flop.

Quote:

Another Alien or Aliens prequel or sequel the Untitled Alien Movie, H. R. Giger, Ridley Scott I think this will flop they are expensive to make and Alien movies find it difficult to make profit, the original had a Budget $11 million but modern films of this kind are costing 100 million to make,
are Universal Monsters even a thing anymore?
any idea for a 'Predator' remake or similar type of scifi monster big cgi fx film will fail.



There hasn't been a great Alien or Predator movie since Aliens and Predator II. I have Alien 3 on my watch again list though because it seems to have gained a cult following over the years and I've watched analysis videos on YT where people defend the movie and even call it great. I only watched it once when I was a kid, and I was just disappointed that it wasn't much more action packed and that it wasn't taking place on earth like it was rumored that it would be. Plus, they killed off 2 of the 3 people who survived in Aliens off screen before the movie even started, so 10 year old me already hated the flick before the opening credits finished rolling.

The crossovers could have been amazing. It was something I was so excited about seeing as a kid. But when they finally came out in my 20's (way after that excitement about such things waned), they were stupid and boring. I don't know where they went wrong with Aliens/Predator, but I don't know if they can ever really bring that magic back.

Quote:

Demolition Man 2 and other science fiction action, might do ok but I have no idea when it comes out.


I'd watch it. DM is one of my all time favorite movies. Hope they don't fuck it up.

Quote:

I don't know if 'The Registration' can make money, people have read the book but it seems to be a thriller murder topic with more adult content meaning you will have less in the cinema seats. Does Sydney Sweeney have star power or maybe she has other upcoming movies that would give it momentum?


I haven't heard of this one and I don't know who Sydney Sweeney is. Don't judge Her (His?) star power on me not knowing who they are though. I'm not really up on Star Culture at all, and I rarely even watch any movies or TV shows even though I find their performance fascinating. If the actor/actress hasn't been in the business for 20 years already there's a great chance I don't know who they are unless they've said something really stupid or really brilliant on social media.

Quote:

An anime version or cinema cartoon version of the "Lord of the Rings" might do very well but I'm not sure, it all depends on how much studios are willing to back some Japanese guy and how well the Japanese guy does this LOTR product.


If a Japanese guy is in charge of it, I actually have really high hopes that it will be a great production. If they instead put anybody from America or Europe in charge of it, I probably won't even bother watching because I know what they're going to do to it.

Quote:

'Killers of the Flower Moon' is supposed to be a good movie but the Scorsese movie is said to be LONG
these can be hard to prediction and you got the Barbie and Oppenheimer predictions wrong although other movies you almost got the predictions exactly correct
Oppenheimer was long but made 616 M overseas and is making 945 Million worldwide.
Some are already predicting success at $44 Million Box Office it is very early to predict, some might say it will make small profit and the star cinema performance more than returns are not the main measure, the 'Art'? it is being talked about and might make money also on streaming service.



Yeah. Like I said earlier, I think I need to watch Barbie to see why it did so well. I still can't wrap my head around it. Although I never said either of these would be flops, they both did FAR better than I ever expected them to do. I can't believe that Oppenheimer almost got to a Billion $. The marketing campaign was phenomenal. Not only did WB come out later and admit that they spent a whopping $150 MILLION on marketing ($5 Million more than it cost to produce), but that whole "Barbieheimer" campaign was somehow just brilliant. I don't think Oppenheimer would have done nearly as well on its own without it.

As for Killers, yeah... My predictions on that were just about perfect. Even down to using Oppenheimer's Saturday/Sunday drops to predict the total weekend after Friday's projections were out to being off only $130k.

Even without "Barbieheimer", far more people would have gone to see Oppenheimer worldwide than they ever would go out to see Killers. It just had much more wide appeal with the subject matter than Killers did. And on that topic, I said this about Killers on October 21st...

And Wolf did MASSIVE numbers internationally. The $116,949,183 it made in the US was only 30% of the Worldwide take. 70% of this movies income was outside of the US!

There is no way that is happening with Killers internationally. The Wolf on Wall Street resonated so well with people around the world because of the disproportionate power that Wall Street has over the world economy, and we were just finally overcoming the last huge market meltdown and worldwide recession by 2013.

Nobody outside of the US is going to give a single shit about an FBI drama that takes place in Oklahoma in 1920. It's not as if nobody is going to go see it. I'm sure that life-long Scorsese and DiCaprio fans outside of the US are happy to see another collab between them. But we're talking maybe 25%-30% of its worldwide take being international for Killers when compared to Wolf's 70%.


Killer's Worldwide total through Sunday is $23,253,655. This includes $4,680,914 that it made internationally over the weekend. That means, at least so far, that only 20.1% of the gross for this movie over opening weekend was from an international audience. This also means that it will never be anywhere close to as successful as Wolf on Wall Street was because it's already made less money than Wolf did if you count inflation (Wolf did $24,323,871 opening weekend after you consider inflation, which was $1 Million more than Killers). And even if Killers somehow ends up with my high end prediction of 30% of the gross coming from international audiences instead of the current 20%, it's going to make nothing close to what Wolf made with it's 70% from international audiences.

Will Killers make money on streaming? That's a good question, and I don't have an answer to that. Whenever I hear Disney shills claim that about a Disney and/or Marvel movie I laugh and say "Oh yeah? That's rich. It's going to make money back on a streaming service that loses $800 Million per quarter, huh?"

If we're operating under the presumption that Apple's streaming service actually makes money, it very well could make some money back there. But how would you even quantify that? I don't even know how people in-the-know at Apple on their internal statistics would quantify that, let alone how Joe Nobody like you or I who isn't privy to any of that data would.

I think when they say that it's just a cope. Apple must be severely disappointed at the Box Office performance of Killers right now, but because they're not hemorrhaging money by putting out constant flops or losing hundreds of thousands of dollars every quarter on their streaming, they're going to get away with it. For now. They'd better hope that Napoleon does well or I predict their days of spending $200 Million to produce award winning movies are going to be put behind them.

Quote:

Horror movie trends will continue, there will be a cheap production which can give a big money investment return.


Yeah. I liked that article you posted about the history of them. I always knew the genre had potential to have smash hits from the beginning because of the low budgets, but I didn't know how consistent that truth was over the decades.

Quote:

I think S.Korea and some other seas movie and tv makers will continue to dominate streaming service, the South Koreans might have a reasonably successful hit in US Cinemas, I don't think the genre matters much but they will be able to make a somewhat successful global box office movie


I just finally saw Snowpiercer with my old man last week and I loved it. Even though it got very little play in the states, it's still celebrated as a masterpiece in South Korea and remains SK's #1 performing Sci-Fi movie of all time. I'm actually looking forward to watching more from Bong Joon Ho. I just wish he'd dub his movies that weren't spoken in English. He seems to not like that being done. I get it. There's a very vocal audience that hates dubs and feels that they detract from the experience. I'm not in that camp. I don't like having to spend time reading what people are saying rather than immersing myself in the world, particularly in a sci-fi style movie.

Quote:

That DVD Market, HD, The Blu-Ray will remain dead, you will have one big chance to make your money, there won't be much money returned on DVD sales the world economy is somewhat broke.


I predict that there might actually be a renissance in physical media. At least for a while among people around my age (Gen Z and old Millennials) who grew up with it. There is quite a bit of content that you cannot see anymore unless you've got a physical copy or go pirate it instead. Not only that, but they're changing a lot of things in movies (using alternate scenes, removing content they find offensive in current year, etc.). And if you watch TV on streaming, you might lose entire episodes because they're "offensive" to somebody. At least 3 episodes of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and 1 episode of Community are banned from streaming services because of a character wearing blackface in them. If you have DVD/BluRay of these shows pre-2020 you can still watch those episodes. I think this practice is a crime. Especially since I'm a staunch supporter of media preservation in all formats.

Quote:

There is money to be made but they are smaller slots available and when some cash can arrive during a month it can be very competitive.


Yeah. Until we go back to a world where there's only 2 or maybe 3 streaming services, streaming is more or less a losing financial model. Everyone and their brother thought that they could stream their own content instead of licensing it out, so you've got 80 different streaming services that nobody is going to pay for every month since it would now dwarf their cable bill.

Not only has Disney lost hundreds of Millions every quarter on Disney+, but that's not even including the implied profits they set on fire by not making all that sweet licensing revenue they used to make when allowing their stuff to be played on places like Netflix/Amazon/Apple.

And merchandising is a huge failure much more often than not these days. You can find videos all over youtube of Star Wars and Marvel merchandise just rotting on the shelves of discount outlet stores like Ollies before they find their eventual home in a landfill in the desert.

In this climate, you'd better make that money on opening weekend and the first month in the theater, or you just screwed yourself again.

Quote:

Video Game property becoming tv shows and movies will continue being a thing, the comicbook superhero thing is mostly dead for at least another year maybe even longer like a half decade to come or even more.


I think this will find varying degrees of success. If done correctly and respecting the source material, I think a lot of money could be made here. But if you're going to make up your own woke story and force a bunch of diversity and inclusion, it will fail.

Quote:

Canada should be making tv show hits like it has produced shows over the past decades but it is not doing the same today
There is an opportunity for indie cinema and indie tv production in the USA



I'm here for it.

Quote:

the last time Hollywood knew how to make money was half a decade ago, they will make less during election year and the fallout from the strikes might continue another year or so.


I'm here for that as well.

Quote:

This will not be the last Pop Taylor Swift Star Concert Thing



Nope. Let's see how Beyonce's thing does in December.

Like I said to Whozit earlier, I don't care in the least bit about Taylor Swift, and I don't care about Beyonce at all either. But I find this new type of production and its possible future in our culture to be pretty interesting.

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Monday, October 30, 2023 12:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Projections for the 3rd weekend are $14,700,000, a 56% dropoff from last weekend.

Worldwide it broke the $200M barrier with $203,064,861. If we were counting this along side real movies, it would have already made the 1,000% club even if the budget were at the high projected end of $20 Million.

There's only $53 Million in International money, and I think that's a disappointment for them.

Although I think I remember hearing that they weren't going to keep it in theaters past the 2nd week of November at first, but now I'm seeing that it will get 13 weeks and won't end its run until some time in January. That being said, I think the (serious) predictions that this would make over $250 Million worldwide were correct. It's only got $47 Million to go and it's still got another 10 weekends in the theaters.

Normally, with 64% and 56% drops the first two weekends, the 26.4 International Box Office Share, and what it pulled in this weekend, I'd say that it's a super steep hill to climb. But I think this one is different enough that the weekend drops should get smaller as time goes on and shouldn't be as dramatic as they normally would.

The only thing that hurts the repeat viewings on this, AND I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH, is the abnormally high ticket price. My advice to them would be to announce next weekend or the following weekend at the latest that they're discounting the tickets to normal ticket prices and make an event out of that on Social Media, getting Taylor online to really hype it up and get people back to see it a 2nd or a 3rd time.

I did the math for constant 60% drops going forward, and in 10 weeks it wouldn't even make another $10 Million, but I think that model is flawed.

There are also about 8 to 10 countries this won't even be released in until next weekend too.

I won't say with 100% certainty it hits $250 Million Worldwide, but I think it has a pretty good shot at it. Especially if they do what I think they ought to do and discount the tickets going forward and use their greatest asset (Taylor, herself) to promote and hype a repeat viewing among her core fans.

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Tuesday, November 7, 2023 9:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The weekend to weekend drop from 3rd to 4th was amazingly small this time around.

I don't recall ever seeing any movie that was still making over $10 Million on a weekend only dropping -12% from the weekend before it.

That's less than 10% of its total Domestic gross at this point, so little more than a drop in the bucket, but I think we've reached the point where we're seeing the die-hard Swifty fans coming out for repeat viewings. In my mind, these people are today's version of the people I'd see coming out of a showing for Rocky Horror Picture Show the few times I went with my brother 20 years ago to see movies like Animal House and Caddieshack at this little theater in the North suburbs of Chicago that had b-list actors from the movies come for photo-ops and signings while also sitting on stage before the movie to talk about it. I guess that place showed Rocky Horror Picture Show in one of its screens every single night on weekends, and why wouldn't they when the same people would get dressed up and pack the movie house every single weekend?

This may be finished internationally though. I don't know. That, or Bruce didn't get international numbers for this weekend yet. Even though there was another $17 Million this week Domestic, there was no new international money added to the total.



Total box office so far worldwide is $218.5 Million. Not to shabby for something that only cost $10 to $20 Million and required little more than good editing on something that was already taking place anyhow.

I still doubt very much that Beyonce's similar offering next month is going to do even half of what Taylor's did, and I doubt very much that this kind of money can ever really be replicated by nearly any act in the future, but I do hope this becomes a thing that AMC continues to do on a limited basis.

I have no interest in seeing something like this for Taylor or Beyonce myself, but even my old, jaded self probably wouldn't mind seeing a few acts in a setting such as this if AMC decides to diversify its offerings and makes this about a 3 or 4 times per year tradition.

Even if these things were only to pull in $50 to $80 Million worldwide on average, if they can pare the budget down to $10 Million or even less, nearly every single one of them is going to be profitable for everybody involved.

On a $10 Million budget, if they were only to make $50 Million each on average, that would be a 500% return, and in 2023 that would put every one of them in competition with each other for around 13th to 15th place for the most profitable films of the year.

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Sunday, November 19, 2023 7:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 13th):

Per Bruce at the-numbers.com tonight:

Quote:

This is the moment when I would usually hone our prediction with the benefit of Thursday’s preview numbers. I’m not able to do that this week because of the unusual nature of the previews. They were announced just a couple of days ago after most superfans had already bought tickets, and not all theaters played them. Our model would be looking at those $2.8-million in last-minute ticket sales as pointing towards a weekend around $30 million. We already know domestic pre-sales for this weekend exceed that figure. In other words, the preview number really tells us nothing about how the weekend will turn out.


Yup.


Quote:

Bruce predicts an opening Domestic weekend of $130 Million for this and a final Domestic take of $293 Million.


He does not expect this thing to do anywhere near the business that Barbie did at $635 Million Domestic total after a $162 Million weekend.

His Opening Weekend prediction also includes all the Swiftie pre-sales, and I'd assume he's considering this thing to be pretty front-loaded by super-fans while he doesn't expect it to have anywhere near the staying power that Barbie had.


If the Domestic / International split for this concert thing is the same as Barbie's was (44% / 56%) and Bruce's prediction for Domestic is correct, this thing could be looking at making around $660 Million worldwide.

I think that figure is a little bit (or a lot) too ambitious.

If it hit $660 Million worldwide, that would place it at #8 on the list for 2023, beating every mega-budget Disney movie except for Guardians 3 by at least $100 Million and only being topped by Barbie, Super Mario Bros., Oppenheimer, Guardians 3, Fast X, Miles Morales 2 and a movie from China that is in 7th place.

I think this one is more front-loaded than Bruce believes it to be and it's not very likely to get the repeat viewings that the blockbusters get for two simple reasons.

1. A good majority of these overpriced tickets are being purchased by parents that are taking their daughters to see it, and many of them aren't going to be likely to spend that much money on a repeat viewing of this. (When repeat-viewings are a huge part of the revenue of most Super Hero movies, or movies like Super Mario Bros and Barbie).

2. A good deal of those parents probably aren't ultra-mega Swift fans themselves and wouldn't want to sit through another 3 hour concert documentary even if the tickets weren't overpriced.


Because of the weird nature of the pre-sales on this one, I still won't even dare putting out a prediction on this until the 2nd weekend's numbers roll in though, other than to say that I believe $660 Million worldwide is pie-in-the-sky thinking here.




Yeah. Bruce's original prediction of $293 million Domestic was insanity. It's now made just $175.3 Million Domestic.

$244.2 Million worldwide so far, although it appears to be ending its run with only $2.4 Million Domestic this weekend. I think it will probably have no problems crossing $250 Million before it exits theaters.




The Beyonce Concert Thing comes out in 2 weeks.

As I said from the beginning, I don't expect it to do half the business that Taylor Swift does, so a finish behind Shazam II and Blue Beetle is what I expect for that one. With what I assume will be a similar $10-$20 Million budget that will still be a great haul for AMC and Beyonce (assuming that her contract is the same as Taylor's was, and if her husband was involved I'm pretty sure it was at least that good).



Box Office Pro predicts a $27-$36 Million Domestic Opening Weekend and a total Domestic haul of $40-$80 Million. (Compared to Taylor's actual opening weekend of $92.8 Million)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Taylor-Swift-The-Eras-Tour-(2023)#ta
b=box-office


If that outlook for the entire run is true, whether or not it actually hits $80 Million here, it had better do much better than Taylor did overseas or it won't even see half of what Eras Tour made. 50% of $80 Million is only $40 Million for a Worldwide total of $120 Million, and Taylor's already doubled that even though only 28.2% of her box office was from outside of the states.

There's an extremely good chance this one might not even make $100 Million worldwide, but it will still probably gross anywhere from 4x to 9x of the Production Budget if it's in line with what Taylor's Era Tour cost.

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Friday, December 1, 2023 10:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I don't know what changed (in their minds), but BoxOfficePro lowered their opening weekend projection for Beyonce's concert thing to only $14-$25 Million. They do mention that pre-sale pacing is sharply behind Taylor Swift's (which was expected) and hasn't seemed to pick up at all right before release. It must be bad, because they basically cut their prediction in half.

IMO, this tracks, because I don't hear anybody talking about this at all and I'm pretty sure that most people reading this wouldn't even know about it if I wasn't writing about it.

BOP's official prediction is $18 Million, compared to Taylor Swift's $92.8M actual opening weekend.

If they're right, I was being extremely overly generous to Beyonce here by saying it wouldn't make half of what Taylor Swift did. I'm interested in seeing what Bruce predicts later tonight.


There are a LOT of movies in the theaters right now and 5 more being added this weekend. It seems a strange weekend to decide to open her concert thing when next weekend only has one new release that doesn't appear to have much buzz around it.

Is this thing even going to make $80 Million worldwide? If it makes less than $20 Million stateside, it depends entirely on the international draw for sure.

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Friday, December 1, 2023 12:21 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (October 30th):
Although I think I remember hearing that they weren't going to keep it in theaters past the 2nd week of November at first, but now I'm seeing that it will get 13 weeks and won't end its run until some time in January. That being said, I think the (serious) predictions that this would make over $250 Million worldwide were correct. It's only got $47 Million to go and it's still got another 10 weekends in the theaters.



Bruce doesn't list the Eras Tour on his weekly theater counts, but he's been known to miss some movies on that before. I had to double check because Beyonce's thing is coming out this weekend and I thought that maybe they decided to end Taylor's thing so there wasn't any competition. That doesn't appear to be the case since a simple google search give me local showtimes for the next 3 nights.

I'm really not interested enough to do any deep dives and find out if it's still playing internationally or not (and where), so I'm not going to bother trying to pin down an actual final number for this one. But it does now have $248,933,887 Worldwide, and it made $2.3 Million in the US last weekend. Assuming the theater counts in the US weren't slashed to near-nothing to make room for Beyonce's thing, Swift's thing shouldn't have too much of a problem hitting $250 Million by the end of the weekend even if it's done internationally.

If it is still going to be in theaters until sometime in January, it's already got $250 Million, with or without international figures.





I was going to look into how the AMC splits were with both of the performers, but the way that everything is worded is kind of bullshit. I've read that 50% of the money is going to Beyonce, but they don't mention if the theaters get paid first and that's a 50/50 split between AMC and Beyonce after the fact. I assume that it is.

I've then read that Taylor is "splitting" the 57% leftover with AMC after the theaters get a 43% take. I guess I'll assume that "splitting" means 50/50 here as well, but I can't seem to find all the necessary data for either event to see if they got the same deal or not.

This is probably by design if they didn't.


But when I was looking for info on Taylor's split, it looks like she somehow managed to get 85% of the revenue from the tour itself, which is just insanity. Great for her. If she wasn't already a billionaire, she is in 2023. I've seen estimates stating she made anywhere from $4.1 to $6 BILLION on this tour. That's her take. Not the total.

So I guess what I'm saying is, whatever percentage she gets from the AMC deal and even the streaming when it comes out for $20 to rent in 2 weeks is basically moot. She's not even going to make enough from the theaters and streaming to cover the insane taxes she's paying the federal and state governments in April while becoming one of the richest people in the world.

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Friday, December 1, 2023 7:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... That was strange...

Beyonce's thing made over $5 Million on Preview Night.

Taylor Swift's only made $2.8 Million on Preview Night.

There must have been a whole lot more walk-up business for Beyonce's thing. I'm going to leave any discussions about racial makeup and computer savvy/credit access for others to ponder.


Despite making over $2.2 Million more than Taylor's thing, Deadline only predicts $20-$25 Million for opening weekend vs. Taylor's $92.8 Million.

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-
godzilla-minus-one-hunger-games-1235647651
/

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Friday, December 1, 2023 8:59 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce doesn't have a freakin' clue what to think. His model came up with $49 Million for Beyonce's thing, but he doesn't have any faith in that and finishes up his weekly prediction article saying basically "who knows... Songbirds and Snakes could possibly win the weekend again".

He did make a mention that: " Beyoncé’s film posted excellent preview numbers last night, with $5.06 million. That’s quite a bit more than Taylor Swift’s $2.8 million in previews, but that’s not really an apples to apples comparison, as the Swift previews were added to the schedule long after her most enthusiastic fans had bought tickets for later in the weekend."

...

Which is what I noted as well, although he (probably wisely) didn't want to bring up demographics as the leading factor here.

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Sunday, December 3, 2023 11:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Bruce doesn't have a freakin' clue what to think. His model came up with $49 Million for Beyonce's thing, but he doesn't have any faith in that and finishes up his weekly prediction article saying basically "who knows... Songbirds and Snakes could possibly win the weekend again".



What a disappointing weekend all around, with Beyonce's thing leading the pack.

1. Weekend projections for Beyonce: $21 Million. Bruce predicted $49.9 Million.

2. Songbirds & Snakes projected at $14.5 Million. Bruce predicted $21.2 Million.

3. Godzilla Minus One projected at $11 Million. Bruce predicted $24 Million.

4. Wish projected at $7.4 Million. Bruce predicted $13.1 Million.

5. The Marvels projected at $2.5 Million. Bruce predicted $3.95 Million.



Now Bruce had no confidence at all in his model's $49.9 Million prediction for Beyonce, and I knew that was nuts... But I did think it would probably do better than the low end of the early projections from Media sites after it banked over $5 Million on Preview Thursday which was close to double what Taylor's thing did. So only making $21 Million here for the whole 4 days is a little surprising to me.

Nobody, including the rage-bait/click-bait YouTubers is going to have this conversation, but I did say this on Friday immediately after I saw those preview numbers...

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
There must have been a whole lot more walk-up business for Beyonce's thing. I'm going to leave any discussions about racial makeup and computer savvy/credit access for others to ponder.



Call me a racist (again), which I'm sure Second will if his obsession with me leads him all the way to reading my posts on concert events in the cinema board, but I'm sure there is somebody who wears a suit everyday who noticed this trend and is planning what to do on any future concert releases accordingly. This will never be discussed in public, but they are going to be discussing it behind closed doors.

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Tuesday, December 5, 2023 1:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Entertainment Weekly: Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé tops box office, stomps all over Godzilla Minus One

Uh-huh. *yawn*

Nobody thought Godzilla Minus One was going to do well.



Beyonce made $27.4 Million worldwide. Bruce said she was going to make $49.9 Million in the US alone.



Also in the EW article...

Quote:

Swift's film of her still ongoing tour broke the record for biggest debut of a concert film, beating out Michael Jackson's 2009 This Is It, with $128 million globally. Bey wrapped up her 56-show Renaissance World Tour in early October, becoming the highest grossing tour by a female artist in history — a record she'll likely cede to Swift's 151-show Eras Tour when it comes to a close next year.


Seriously EW? You wrote this article on December 3rd.


Billboard just wrote an article on November 29th stating that Taylor Swift already made $900 Million with her Eras Tour in 2023 and will likely be the most profitable tour of any act in history when it wraps up next year.

https://www.billboard.com/pro/taylor-swift-eras-tour-top-grossing-glob
al-tour
/

According to another EW article from October 3rd, Beyonce's tour made quite a bit less than $900 Million:

Quote:

All in all, Beyoncé's ninth concert tour pulled in $579 million, making it the highest-grossing tour by a female artist in history, and the seventh-highest-grossing tour overall.


https://ew.com/music/beyonce-renaissance-tour-by-the-numbers-records/


It likely wasn't even true that Beyonce held that record on October 3rd, and it certainly isn't true on December 3rd. You either already knew this and you're lying, or whoever wrote these articles for you should be fired and replaced by AI.

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Saturday, December 9, 2023 1:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Beyonce's concert thing droped a staggering -75.61% from opening Friday (after removing Thursday's preview numbers).

Any early predictions of mine stating that Beyonce's thing wouldn't make half of Taylor's thing were a drastic understatement. Maybe that was some unrealized "white guilt" buried somewhere deep inside me talking or something.



This thing is pathetic.

It's only grossed $30.1 Million so far.

By this point in Swift's Eras Tour run, her concert thing had already grossed $98,788,501 in the US alone, and hers had a 71.7% / 28.3% Domestic / International split, where Beyonce's concert thing has a 81.8% / 18.2% Domestic / International split.


They might as well just take this thing out of the theaters now. It's making Disney look good.



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Sunday, December 10, 2023 8:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Beyonce's concert thing droped a staggering -75.61% from opening Friday (after removing Thursday's preview numbers).

...


They might as well just take this thing out of the theaters now. It's making Disney look good.



$5 Million. That's it. It made less this weekend than it did on Preview Thursday last week.

Speaking of making Disney look good, it bumped Wish up to 5th place for the weekend. Wish hadn't seen 5th place since Tuesday.


$33,537,402 Worldwide right now. I'm sure there's some international numbers that haven't been added yet, but not much.


Beyonce is getting half of nothing here. If the thing cost $10 Million (which was the low-end figure for Taylor's thing), it already broke even and there's a few million that AMC and Beyonce are going to split.

But if it cost $20 Million (which was the high-end figure for Taylor's thing), it might not break even before it's pulled out of theaters. $50 Million is a LONG way away when you're sitting at around $35 Million Worldwide after two weekends.

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 10:50 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


A FREE copy of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour 2023 is available from

https://yts.mx/movies/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-2023

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie can be rented or purchased online for $19.89 at Prime Video.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/watch-strea
m-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-online-free-1235746604
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 10:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You are an idiot.

This isn't 1995.

Nobody is impressed with your ability to use google to find a link to a torrent site.

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023 11:07 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You are an idiot.

This isn't 1995.

Nobody is impressed with your ability to use google to find a link to a torrent site.

That is exactly the point. Either pay $19.89 or FREE for the same movie. Your choice.

If Hollywood chooses for you, it is $19.89.

I keep neglecting to hammer this point into 6ixStringJack's head:

6ix thinks ticket sales are declining because Hollywood does not support Trump.

I think Hollywood does not support Trump because he is a would-be dictator and an all-around scumbag criminal, which is separate from the technical problem of Hollywood charging for experiences that can be had for FREE.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 12:53 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
You are an idiot.

This isn't 1995.

Nobody is impressed with your ability to use google to find a link to a torrent site.

That is exactly the point. Either pay $19.89 or FREE for the same movie. Your choice.

If Hollywood chooses for you, it is $19.89.

I keep neglecting to hammer this point into 6ixStringJack's head:

6ix thinks ticket sales are declining because Hollywood does not support Trump.

I think Hollywood does not support Trump because he is a would-be dictator and an all-around scumbag criminal, which is separate from the technical problem of Hollywood charging for experiences that can be had for FREE.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Piracy has nothing to do with anything here. Movie piracy has been around since high speed internet was a thing.


Global box office by year since Trump's last year and Biden took office...

2020 $2,113,846,800
2021 $4,482,808,453
2022 $7,369,505,492
2023 $8,361,223,808

That's nearly a 400% increase in 4 years.

I've never said Hollywood is failing because it doesn't agree with Trump.

Not once.


Universal has made $1.5 Billion in profit in 2023.

Disney has lost $1.8 Billion in 2023.

One studio makes movies that people want to see.

The other studio doesn't.

Figure it out.


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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 5:55 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Piracy has nothing to do with anything here. Movie piracy has been around since high speed internet was a thing.


Global box office by year since Trump's last year and Biden took office...

2020 $2,113,846,800
2021 $4,482,808,453
2022 $7,369,505,492
2023 $8,361,223,808

That's nearly a 400% increase in 4 years.

I've never said Hollywood is failing because it doesn't agree with Trump.

Not once.


Universal has made $1.5 Billion in profit in 2023.

Disney has lost $1.8 Billion in 2023.

One studio makes movies that people want to see.

The other studio doesn't.

Figure it out.

This is from 2005. Jay Epstein said that as the "video window" got shorter (the video window is the time between the movie premiere and the video disc going on sale) ticket sales would get smaller. Small enough to be death for Hollywood? Maybe, so he titled his prediction:

Hollywood’s Death Spiral
The secret numbers tell the story.
By Edward Jay Epstein | July 25, 2005, 2:48 PM

After Hong Kong collapsed its video window in 2002, there was a 70 percent reduction in theater attendance. And, as a top studio executive pointed out after studying the problem, “A 6% reduction in attendance in 2000-2001 led to half the movie theaters in the world going bankrupt.” How will Hollywood get out of the death spiral? “That is the $64 billion dollar question,” he replied.

6ix, I doubt you will read the two-part story, but here it is, anyway:
https://slate.com/culture/2005/07/hollywood-s-death-spiral.html
https://slate.com/culture/2005/08/hollywood-s-death-spiral-part-2.html

Hollywood did exactly what Epstein predicted in 2005 would cause Hollywood’s Death Spiral and the pirates are pushing Hollywood to keep the spiral spinning with the pirates' video window of one day to one month, sometimes two months, before the pirates' release.

The high point in ticket sales was 2002 with $16,592,716,235

2023 is not over but sales are $9,152,707,198.

These are Total Inflation Adjusted Box Office. It is a slow death but you could call it Hollywood’s Death Spiral.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

And 6ix, I know perfectly well that you hate Disney because it does not support Trump. Don't pretend that hate is not your motivation for writing dozens of different threads about Hollywood movies failing. I see the same hatred from East Texas Trumptards who never heard of Firefly and do NOT post on fireflyfans.net

6ix, stop pretending your psychology is different than typical Trumptards. You are so not special.

I hate Trumptards because you are crappy workmen who steal fuel and tools. The richer Trumptards have the same rotten business ethics as Trump. I have to cancel contracts and sue them whenever I make the mistake of giving them work. Trumptards are crooks/thieves/liars/assholes, but what else would you expect from people who feel free of any restraints and always seek only pleasure?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 1:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
And 6ix, I know perfectly well that you hate Disney because it does not support Trump.



Incorrect. I hate that Disney has turned into what it has turned into, and I love watching it fail because of that.

Donald Fucking Trump has nothing to do with this at all. I know it's hard for you to wrap your one-track mind around that fact because all you ever think about is Trump.

Quote:

Don't pretend that hate is not your motivation for writing dozens of different threads about Hollywood movies failing.


It's not hate. It's schadenfreude. It's deserved.

Quote:

I see the same hatred from East Texas Trumptards who never heard of Firefly and do NOT post on fireflyfans.net

6ix, stop pretending your psychology is different than typical Trumptards. You are so not special.



Every post you make whether it's in the Cinema forums or the RWED comes from the hatred at your core. Including this one.

Quote:

I hate Trumptards


Yes. This much is very, very obvious.

Quote:

because you are crappy workmen who steal fuel and tools. The richer Trumptards have the same rotten business ethics as Trump. I have to cancel contracts and sue them whenever I make the mistake of giving them work. Trumptards are crooks/thieves/liars/assholes, but what else would you expect from people who feel free of any restraints and always seek only pleasure?


You don't own a business. You don't have any employees. You've never fired anyone.

You are a serial liar, thief and plagiarist. Plain and simple.

Everybody you have ever known both online and in real life despises you.

You have no value. You have no worth.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 2:02 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
And 6ix, I know perfectly well that you hate Disney because it does not support Trump.



Incorrect. I hate that Disney has turned into what it has turned into, and I love watching it fail because of that.

Donald Fucking Trump has nothing to do with this at all. I know it's hard for you to wrap your one-track mind around that fact because all you ever think about is Trump.

Quote:

Don't pretend that hate is not your motivation for writing dozens of different threads about Hollywood movies failing.



It's not hate. It's schadenfreude. It's deserved.

Since Trump is a salesman, he sells to you what you want. People like you have wanted Hollywood to die since at least 1939. For example:

The Day of the Locust is a 1939 novel by American author Nathanael West set in Hollywood, California. The novel follows a young artist from the Yale School of Fine Arts named Tod Hackett, who has been hired by a Hollywood studio to do scene design and painting. While he works he plans an important painting to be called "The Burning of Los Angeles", a portrayal of the chaotic and fiery holocaust which will destroy the city. While the cast of characters Tod befriends are a conglomerate of Hollywood stereotypes, his greater discovery is a part of society whose "eyes filled with hatred", and "had come to California to die". This undercurrent of society captures the despair of Americans who worked and saved their entire lives only to realize, too late, that the American dream was more elusive than they imagined. Their anger boils into rage, and the craze over the latest Hollywood premiere erupts violently into mob rule and absolute chaos.

Trump certainly knows who will buy his sales pitch.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Locust

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 2:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


"The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things"

Stay on Topic.

Nobody cares about your asinine opinions.

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Friday, December 15, 2023 11:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce doesn't even have Beyonce's thing in the Top 10 this week, but I'm not convinced that wasn't just an oversight on his part.

He's got The Shift in 9th place with $1.16 Million and Silent Night in 10th place with $972k.

Yeah... Beyonce's thing is terrible and lost 75% on the 2nd weekend with a worldwide total under $35 Million, but even if it lost 75% again on the 3rd weekend it would still be $1.37 Million and hit 8th place.


It did $360k on Thursday night. I don't see how it doesn't land 9th place by the time the weekend is over.

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Saturday, December 16, 2023 5:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well... as far as placement goes, I'm not wrong so far.

Beynoce's thing comes in under Napoleon by around $90k and above The Shift by about $250k. Silent Night doesn't have any numbers posted yet.

This puts it in 8th place, but we still haven't gotten any numbers for "Christmas With The Chosen", which is a "Special Event"... whatever that means. Bruce predicted it at 7th place this weekend with $2.5 Million, above Napoleon.


I think excluding Beyonce's thing from his predictions for the week was just an error on his part and he didn't really think it wasn't going to make the Top 10.



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Sunday, December 17, 2023 11:26 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (December 15th):
Bruce doesn't even have Beyonce's thing in the Top 10 this week, but I'm not convinced that wasn't just an oversight on his part.

He's got The Shift in 9th place with $1.16 Million and Silent Night in 10th place with $972k.

Yeah... Beyonce's thing is terrible and lost 75% on the 2nd weekend with a worldwide total under $35 Million, but even if it lost 75% again on the 3rd weekend it would still be $1.37 Million and hit 8th place.


It did $360k on Thursday night. I don't see how it doesn't land 9th place by the time the weekend is over.



Well... We'll see what happens when all the movies projections are in for the weekend, but specifically in the case of Beyonce's thing beating both The Shift and Silent Night I was correct. (And it only fell 63% this weekend from its 2nd weekend).

Wonka and whatever "Christmas with the Chosen" (the movie that Bruce predicted 7th place for this weekend) is have not yet put out projections. I have no clue what's going to happen with Christmas with the Chosen or when those projections will be in, but Wonka obviously got 1st place.

Otherwise, the list this weekend is going to be:

1. Wonka
2. Songbirds & Snakes (With another phenomenal hold of only -38%)
3. The Boy and the Heron (Dropping 60% unfortunately and giving 2nd place to S&S)
4. Godzilla Minus One
5. Trolls Band Together
6. Wish
7. Napoleon
8. Beyonce's Concert Thing
9. Poor Things (which also wasn't on Bruce's Top 10)
10. The Shift
11. Silent Night

So yeah... Probably just an oversight on Bruce's part here. I've seen him make mistakes like this before. For instance, to this day, M3GAN is not on his Top 100 Worldwide Box Office list even though it should be at 33rd place under PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and above some Chinese flick called Under the Light.

With only $36.3 Million Worldwide, this thing isn't getting close to even $50 Million. I think everyone involved is extremely disappointed in this performance even though everyone did make at least some money off of it.

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Sunday, December 17, 2023 4:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


That Christmas with the Chosen thing did get 7th place for the weekend like Bruce predicted, so the Beyonce thing got 9th place like I predicted.



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Sunday, December 24, 2023 2:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I almost thought this wasn't in theaters anymore. No projections for Friday, Saturday or Sunday. But it did get a projected $220k on Thursday (-60%).

It'll be under a Million for the 4th weekend, so it's already done. With only $5.46 Million Internationally, it's questionable whether this even breaks $40 Million.

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