CINEMA

2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, August 7, 2025 16:07
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Saturday, July 26, 2025 11:22 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


The FantasticFour: FirstSteps
1st Friday

Superman $56,109,755 Minecraft $57,113,324 Fantastic Four $57,000,000
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Superma
n-(2025)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison


However overseas reports and gossip are bad, Trump tariff might have backfired or else people just have Superhero fatigue for international cinema numbers

Strong domestic numbers

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Flying ‘Superman’s Route Toward Great $125M Opening – Box Office

https://deadline.com/2025/07/box-office-fantastic-four-first-steps-123
6468412
/

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Saturday, July 26, 2025 9:23 PM

JAYNEZTOWN

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Saturday, July 26, 2025 9:24 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$125 is still not a great opening. During Marvel's heyday, that number would have been the biggest flop for them by far all year. It only looks good when all the other comic book flicks you put out all year were flops and the only comic movie your competition put out all year was a minor success.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, July 27, 2025 6:59 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Fantastic Four - This Movie Shocked Me


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Monday, July 28, 2025 7:14 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


comicbook super hero movies are back! but is that a good thing?

Fantastic Four, similar numbers to the movies ThorRagnarok, Iron Man 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Spider-Man Homecoming

https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/fantastic-four-first-steps-bo
x-office-opening-weekend-1236471441
/

2006 vs 2013
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd1715336708/?ref_=bo_shs_sd

How important is international box office to Hollywood?
https://stephenfollows.com/p/important-international-box-office-hollyw
ood

The first time international box office revenues for Studio movies surpassed domestic was in 1997, mostly due to the strong global performance of just three films: Titanic (70% of the global intake came internationally), Men in Black (57%) and The Lost World (63%). But it wasn't until 2003 when international revenue dominated the domestic market for good


China - $6.5M / $4.5M
Asia/Oceania - $36M / $32.5M
EU - $27.5M / $36.5M
LATAM - $23M / $27M
https://x.com/meJat32/status/1949508984035238059
quote
Asia is a complete disaster for F4. In the good old days, it would have earned over $125M in Asia & China.
In contrast, the EU was bad for Supe with exception of UK.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:

I'll say 750-760,
Domestic '390' plus 360 overseas or maybe international numbers even lower

its certainly not 40-35% USA and 60-65% international



I agree with you here. $750 sounds about right. It's not going to go over $800 unless a summer miracle happens for it and everything else ends up flopping and people are still watching this thing well into next month.



its really starting to drop now, it struggled in Asia, could it go as low as 650? Lower again if numbers keep falling like a rock?

'Superman' makes $24.9M in 3rd weekend, crossed 500 Million on international numbers...possibly a lower 675 finish...I will stay on my original prediction 750

so its almost 300 Mil Domestic so 60% of the money is Domestic and 40% International

Wednesday
$6,637,061 /
$259,851,416

2nd Thursday
$4,790,162 /
$264,641,578

3rd Friday
$7,100,000 /
$271,742,000

3rd Saturday
$9,850,000 /
$281,592,000

3rd Sunday
$7,910,000 /
$289,502,000

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Monday, July 28, 2025 7:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


We'll see. The-Numbers has been down for a while, so I can't really check anything now. Too much of a variance between them and what BoxOfficeMojo shows for me to make any meaningful comparison.

Not really a big deal in the end, if they're not lying about the $225 Million budget. They only need about $60 Million more to cover that before they make at least some money. What's the last DC comic book movie that can say that it made money? I forget at this point.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Tuesday, July 29, 2025 7:24 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Warner Bros. & Apple's F1 The Movie grossed $6.31M this weekend (from 2,615 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $165.66M.

Daily Grosses
FRI - $1.826M
SAT - $2.502M
SUN - $1.977M

https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3lv2ddfyzus2
u



Eternity an upcoming American romantic comedy-fantasy film about dead people with romance and jokes?





Superman overseas is suffering, it is having trouble finding money at the International Box Office. Logan had a bad domestic but very good overseas, Iron Man 2 had a good overseas almost 50/50 The Batman good overseas, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 had a very strong overseas, A Minecraft Movie very strong overseas, Jurassic World Rebirth very strong overseas, for whatever reason the New Superman and New Fantastic Four seem to be crashing overseas...superhero fatigue in Asia and Europe?

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Tuesday, July 29, 2025 1:51 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


in a smaller more limited comicbook market for theatrical films the two movies are definitely eating each other?

Fantastic 4 Opens Strong But Superman May Be Stronger


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Wednesday, July 30, 2025 11:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I'll bet if they cast John Krazinski as Mr. and Sydney Sweeny as Ms. Fantastic, this movie would have made close to $1 Billion.



Good luck making sequels to this a decade from now when the actress playing Sue is 47 years old and the actor playing Reed is 60.

Nice forward thinking there, everyone. Pat yourselves on the back. Good job. Well done.







You guys and gals done yet? Are you tired of losing money every single time you're at bat?


Fire EVERYONE in Hollywood who has been making decisions and/or has been managing other people in the last decade.

START with completely hollowing out every HR and/or DEI Departments.

Everyone who actually WORKS for a living in Hollywood should stay, assuming that they themselves weren't DEI hires. That caveat to that, of course, would be that if the DEI hire in question is actually pretty good at the job, by all means they should remain gainfully employed. But don't keep people around who under-perform. It's really quite simple and it's how things used to work when the world used to work. Shouldn't be that hard to go back to.



All Hollywood needs is some genuine creative talent, backed by a workforce of knowledgeable and talented people to do the camerawork, cinematography, editing and sound, and some good, solid management who understands what it takes to make a product that people want to see.

At one time, we had that.

We had a lot of things we took for granted that we don't have anymore.

Maybe some of them are worth taking back and fixing.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, July 31, 2025 4:46 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


so are we looking at Domnestic Sub < 300m for the Fantastic Four movie? in some parts of the international market it is doing better than Superman


‘Superman’ Becomes First DC Pic in Years to Soar Past $300M Domestically
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superman-box-offic
e-milestone-1236333843
/


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Thursday, July 31, 2025 5:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
so are we looking at Domnestic Sub < 300m for the Fantastic Four movie? in some parts of the international market it is doing better than Superman


‘Superman’ Becomes First DC Pic in Years to Soar Past $300M Domestically
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superman-box-offic
e-milestone-1236333843
/




I got nothing against it except for the casting of Pedro Pascal. I want to see it fail just because of him.

Well that and fuck Disney anyhow. They have it coming to them.

BTW... Disney's park revenue is abysmal in 2025, Second.

I think you already know that because you haven't mentioned it once this year.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, July 31, 2025 9:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK




--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Friday, August 1, 2025 10:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It's looking like Fantastic 4 is going to end up getting spanked by Superman in the end.

It may have posted a stronger opening weekend by a few million dollars, but after 7 days the Domestic total for both movies after 1 week was $177.7 Million for Superman and only $158.4 Million for Fantastic 4.

It took 11 days for Superman to have a sub-$10 Million day. It only too 6 days for Fantastic Four to drop under $10 Million.

Including Preview Thursday, Superman had a 51% drop from opening weekend to 2nd weekend. Projections I've seen all think that FF4 will fall at least 60% this weekend from last.


The only saving grace FF4 may have is the international numbers, but I think that's too early to tell right now. FF4 has an international share 4% higher than Superman did. We'll see what happens on Monday. 4% doesn't sound like much, but that's 4% both ways and even if this does end up flopping or coming close to breaking even, we're still talking about nearly half a billion here so 4% is still nothing to sneeze at, and could easily be the difference between losing money and barely breaking even.


On paper right now, FF4 had a $200,000,000 budget. I'm not sure that I believe this because it's one of the cheaper budgets I've seen for a Disney/Marvel movie in a while and they say there was quite a bit of changes made after the initial test audiences rejected their intended cut.

But I hear that instead of doing full-blow re-shoots on this one, more of the changes came from simply cutting more out of the movie. That checks out since it's only got a 1hr 40min (100 minute) runtime. According to Google AI, the average run time for all Disney/Marvel movies combined has been 2hr 11min (131 minutes). That leads me to believe that any "fixes" they made here, however disjointed they may have left some parts of the movie, were much, much cheaper than what they had to spend to fix movies like Blacktain Anti-America and the black not-Ariel live-action Little Mermaid reboot nobody asked for.



Will FF4 make $500 Million?

Yeah. I think so. Unless the ticket sales fall off of a cliff this weekend and drop something stupid like -70% or more, I don't see it not making half a Billion.

But people should check back in a year from now and see what Bruce has the production budget for this movie set at then. I've caught Disney now on more than one occassion apparently fessing up to what movies ACTUALLY cost to make long after they've fallen out of the news cycle, and even Bruce doesn't mention that when it happens.


That makes me wonder how much they're paying Bruce not to mention it, really. Because I can't see any other reason why he wouldn't. He's one of very few people who are privy to that info, and even fewer who have current knowledge of changes made like this long after anybody else would even be thinking to look at it.

I don't consider him a stupid person, but I don't understand why he wouldn't say anything about this because there would be money in it for him to do so.

...


But the more I think about it though, how much money really would be in it for Bruce to blow the lid on stuff like that when it happened? Probably only a fraction of the money that would be hoovered up all over the place... especially by ambulance-chasing anti-woke YouTube channels that have been hemmoraging viewers all year.

And Bruce has worked up his relationships in Hollywood for a long time, however tight or not they are right now. Probably better and safer for him to just stay out of that and silently update those numbers as he gets them like he's been doing.



--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, August 2, 2025 7:59 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Superman WB doing poor in Europe / Asia and Marvel F4 has done poorly in Europe Asia


Marvel Disney plans? Trouble making 1 Billion Marvel, maybe fix it and just add more 'stars' from the comicbook and put Hulk into a Spider-Man film

attempts at jump starting the cashcow?

Mark Ruffalo Returning as the Hulk for ‘Spider-Man 4’
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-n
ew-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140
/


SUPERMAN ready to cross the 550M mark at Global BoxOffice this weekend, after hitting a 225.3M intl. cume over 78 markets overseas on THU.

Eyeing a 640M-700M Global run, depending on how TheFantasticFour affects its legs.
https://x.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/status/1951325455308693544

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Saturday, August 2, 2025 1:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Mark Ruffalo Returning as the Hulk for ‘Spider-Man 4’
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-n
ew-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140
/



That's a mistake. Nobody wants to see Mark Ruffalo anymore.

Bring back Ed Norton if you want to fix The Hulk.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Saturday, August 2, 2025 1:48 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


the 2nd Fridays

Superman
$16,565,362 /
$194,348,824

Minecraft
$20,500,779 /
$220,862,512

Thor Love And Thunder
$16,565,362 /
$194,348,824

F1 the movie
$6,960,390 /
$90,467,676

The Batman year 2021-ish moved to 2022
$18,614,979 /
$191,135,805

Fantastic Four
$11,700,000 /
$170,127,635

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Saturday, August 2, 2025 1:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


FF4 falls just over 64% from Friday to Friday after removing Thursday preview numbers from the original Friday. (Recorded by the industry with Thursday previews included, it's an 80% drop).

Opening Day: $57,265,566 - $24,400,000 = $32,865,566

This Friday: $11,700,000



Superman's 2nd Friday: $16,565,362
2nd Saturday: $23,026,404
2nd Sunday: $18,858,328

Superman's 2nd Friday drop, with the Thursday Previews included was -70% compared to FF4's -80% drop.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, August 3, 2025 11:19 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


36+ Million to enter the Top50 Worldwide

413 + Million to enter the Top10 on international Box Office

movie F1 did poor domestically but had a huge overseas percentage


1 Ne Zha 2 China $1,994,564,524
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,019,270,728
3 A Minecraft Movie $954,585,398
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $736,406,546
5 How to Train Your Dragon $609,978,139
6 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $592,101,824
7 Superman $531,606,392
8 F1: The Movie $528,270,512
9 Tang Tan 1900 China $452,502,745
10 Captain America: Brave New World $413,640,021
11 Thunderbolts* $382,376,746
12 Sinners $365,821,942
13 Final Destination: Bloodlines $285,330,814
14 The Fantastic Four: First Steps $268,917,087
15 Disney’s Snow White $205,679,463
16 Creation of the Gods II: Demonic Confrontation China $158,047,338
17 Detective Conan: One-eyed Flashback Japan $150,588,900
18 28 Years Later $150,032,064
19 Dog Man $145,567,655
20 Elio $138,254,785
21 Mickey 17 $133,016,530
22 From the World of John Wick: Ballerina $131,793,612
23 Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy $130,131,295
24 Dead To Rights China $112,893,177
25 Boonie Bears: Future Reborn China $104,582,715
26 Karate Kid: Legends $103,341,152
27 The Accountant 2 $103,223,366
28 A Working Man $98,011,278
29 The Amateur $96,000,836
30 Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants China $89,406,052
31 Smurfs $73,535,958
32 The King of Kings $73,402,808
33 The Lychee Road China $69,881,843
34 The Monkey $63,683,002
35 Den of Thieves 2: Pantera $58,371,507
36 The Dumpling Queen China $52,777,038
37 One of Them Days $51,347,454
38 Materialists $50,800,875
39 Until Dawn $50,174,192
40 I Know What You Did Last Summer $49,537,093
41 Operation Hadal China $49,286,339
42 Flight Risk $48,703,174
43 She’s Got No Name China $46,443,031
44 Black Bag $43,434,248
45 M3GAN 2.0 $39,035,507
46 The Phoenician Scheme $38,767,466
47 Volshebnik Izumrudnogo goroda Russian $37,938,360
48 Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Japan $37,500,000
49 A Gilded Game China $37,341,690
50 Companion $36,709,101



Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps has passed the $350M global mark.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1952022929816055845
The film grossed an estimated $39.6M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $170.3M, estimated global total stands at $368.7M.


I was thinking 750 but the international numbers are bad, it could be 317 + 275? = 592?
much lower than my Domestic '390' its only doing 350 global now

anyways Marvel might even spin this as a 'win' with Baseball Caps, Funfair Rides, comics, toys, Download games etc
they want Fantastic Four to be a household name like Avengers or 'Superman' but its not happening

Fantastic Four early 90s unreleased film flop = zero money
Fan4 cartoons, games, comics = unknown money
Fantastic Four 2005 film = $333.5 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Box office $301.9 million
Fantastic Four 2015 film Box office $167.9 million

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Sunday, August 3, 2025 2:33 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Clownfish TV incorrectly reporting today that FF4 fell 80% from last weekend. They got things mixed up and were applying the Friday with Preview week to week number as if that were the full weekend drop.

According to The-Numbers and the early projections, it was "only" a -66% drop.

Still though, with a weak international number on this one already, that's BAD news.

We're talking $40 Million now for weekend 2, when Superman had $58 Million on weekend 2.


And let's not forget, even though FF4 is going to be the first Marvel movie of 2024 to make any money, if it does make any, it won't be all that much and certainly won't cover the losses of the ones that came before it.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, August 3, 2025 5:45 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


At least 1 out of 3 of the Pedro Pascal movies currently in theaters is a major box office failure. One of them has made a few bucks.

Eddington cost anywhere from $25 to $50 Million to make, depending on the source. It hasn't grossed $10 Million. It has been projected by A24 to only gross $150k today. Major loss for A24 on this one. (These budget numbers come from sources like Variety and Deadline. Bruce does not have a Production Budget number for this movie listed.)

The Materialists, another A24 film, has a production budget of $20 Million according to Bruce. This one has made a few bucks with a total worldwide current gross of $62 Million. (At least a $7 Million profit here, but I don't think A24 spends much on marketing so maybe $10 Million???).

In any event, that movie is done too with only $42k being reported as the projection by A24 today. One if not both of these movies will likely be dropped out of most if not all theaters on Friday, leaving A24 with a loss of at least $20 Million, but as much as $40 Million on Pedro Pascal movies in 2024.

If FF4 doesn't gross $500 Million, or if it comes to light that Disney spent more than it is admitting it did, it will be another flop for Pedro in 2024.

I think it should probably hit $500 Million, but I'm not so sure.


I wouldn't ever expect there to be 2 Pedro movies in the theaters at once again, let alone 3. In fact, we might not see much more of him at all in the future.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Sunday, August 3, 2025 9:59 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:

1 Ne Zha 2 China $1,994,564,524
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,019,270,728
3 A Minecraft Movie $954,585,398
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $736,406,546
5 How to Train Your Dragon $609,978,139
6 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $592,101,824

Ne Zha 2 is receiving an English-language dub release in the U.S. and other countries starting August 22, 2025.

But you can immediately download Ne Zha 2 with English subtitles:

Bittorrent Link: 15159F9A012514ED7FC988DCF4CC62E89576370C

https://uindex.org/details.php?id=12751842



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, August 4, 2025 7:14 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle Reaches 10th Highest-Grossing Film in Japan in Just 17 Days.
https://www.crunchyroll.com/news/latest/2025/8/4/demon-slayer-kimetsu-
no-yaiba-infinity-castle-anime-film-10th-highest-grossing-film-in-japan

Infinity Castle now also has biggest box office gross in Japan for 2025.

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Monday, August 4, 2025 3:04 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


movies that never made it

No release War of the Worlds, Universal Pictures / Amazon?

It was made 5 years ago but not really finished almost finished and production delayed with Covid? September 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ice Cube joined in the lead role in an untitled film produced by Timur Bekmambetov, which would be directed by Rich Lee with a screenplay by Kenneth A. Golde for Universal Pictures, Mars or Martian Aliens it is based on H. G. Wells's 1898 novel The War of the Worlds. The film was directed by Rich Lee with a screenplay by Kenneth A. Golde and Marc Hyman from a story by Golde. It stars Ice Cube, Eva Longoria, Clark Gregg, Andrea Savage, Henry Hunter Hall, Iman Benson, Devon Bostick, and Michael O'Neill...direct to streaming?


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Monday, August 4, 2025 4:15 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Weekend Box Office Est. - Australia
https://x.com/numeroboxoffice/status/1952187988185927974
1. #TheFantasticFour : First Steps - $3.66M
2. #Superman- $1.47M
3. #JurassicWorldRebirth - $1.20M

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Tuesday, August 5, 2025 8:30 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Fantastic Four overseas numbers...international totals through Sunday

Italy - $7.1M
Australia - $8.2M
British - $20.5M
French - $10.2M
Mexico - $20.4M
Brazil - $9.3M
Spain - $6.4M
Germany - $5.9M
China - $5.5M
S. Korea - $4.3M
India - $4.1M
Japan - $4.0M


Superman grossed $13.71M during the weekend 3,537 locations Total domestic gross stands at $316.06M


Universal's Jurassic World Rebirth grossed $8.77M this weekend (from 3,240 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $317.67M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1952456033881735583#m
Daily Grosses
FRI - $2.524M
SAT - $3.563M
SUN - $2.679M

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Tuesday, August 5, 2025 5:14 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


The entire media is calling FF4 a flop.

Looks like running constant 24/7/365 defense for Disney is no longer one of their priorities.

--------------------------------------------------

"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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Thursday, August 7, 2025 11:50 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


they call Superman successful?


James Gunn to Direct ‘Next Movie in the Super-Family’ at DC Studios After ‘Superman’ Success

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/james-gunn-direct-superman-sequel-s
uper-family-next-movie-1236478012
/


Fan4 still needs to lead to this whole multi-verse chaotic story mess and Doomsday

Avengers Doomsday an upcoming American superhero film based on the MCU franchise. Cretton departed, Waldron replaced Loveness as writer, and Marvel was considering moving away from the Kang storyline, in part due to Majors's legal issues; Majors was fired the following month. The return of the Russo brothers as directors and McFeely as co-writer, the casting of Downey as new villain Doctor Doom, and the new subtitle Doomsday were all announced in July 2024.

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Thursday, August 7, 2025 4:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
they call Superman successful?


James Gunn to Direct ‘Next Movie in the Super-Family’ at DC Studios After ‘Superman’ Success

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/james-gunn-direct-superman-sequel-s
uper-family-next-movie-1236478012
/


Fan4 still needs to lead to this whole multi-verse chaotic story mess and Doomsday

Avengers Doomsday an upcoming American superhero film based on the MCU franchise. Cretton departed, Waldron replaced Loveness as writer, and Marvel was considering moving away from the Kang storyline, in part due to Majors's legal issues; Majors was fired the following month. The return of the Russo brothers as directors and McFeely as co-writer, the casting of Downey as new villain Doctor Doom, and the new subtitle Doomsday were all announced in July 2024.



I'll bet you that telling everyone years ahead of time who was playing Dr. Doom is going to leave everyone who sees this movie feeling real cheated that they didn't get that reveal on opening night.

This is just symbolic of how bad Disney is at telling stories in the 2020s.

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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon

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